News
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin News
Browse all Bitcoin related articles and news. The latest news, analysis, and insights on Bitcoin.
Texas Takes First Step Towards Bitcoin Reserve: Purchase of $5 Million ETF
Texas has taken a significant step toward becoming the first state in the US to begin accumulating Bitcoin directly with government funds. State officials confirmed a $5 million purchase from IBIT, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. While this move doesn't yet directly translate to BTC accumulation, it is considered a transitional phase for the upcoming "Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve."Texas allocated $10 million to establish this reserve at the beginning of the year and began collecting comprehensive information from the industry in September. The state's information request process was completed in recent weeks. Crypto companies submitted proposals guiding Texas on a range of issues, from custodial services to security standards. These proposals will be used to establish the state's long-term Bitcoin accumulation model.Last week's $5 million ETF purchase is also part of this preparation. A spokesperson for the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts said the ETF is only a "temporary placeholder" and that actual Bitcoin purchases will begin once a formal custodial agreement is signed. The state's next step is to move to the formal proposal process for selecting a custodian. This move opens the door to a new era in the race to establish Bitcoin reserves with public resources in the US. Previously, some states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, invested in Bitcoin ETFs through their state pension funds. However, these were investments made for individual retirement funds; accumulating BTC in the state treasury is a different matter.New Hampshire and Arizona Are NextFollowing Texas, New Hampshire and Arizona are also running their own reserve projects. New Hampshire was the first state in the country to enact a Bitcoin reserve law, but no actual purchase has yet been made. Last week, however, the approval of $100 million in Bitcoin bonds was notable. Arizona has taken legal steps to direct the accumulated unowned crypto assets into a reserve fund.One of the most active figures behind the reserve projects is Dennis Porter, CEO of the Satoshi Action Fund. Porter stated that they have submitted draft laws to states and prefer a gradual progress. He believes the recent decline in the crypto market will not disrupt these initiatives because the downturn is not sufficient to attract the attention of lawmakers. Texas Blockchain Council President Lee Bratcher described the state's latest move as "buying the bottom." He described Texas's purchase of a Bitcoin ETF at $87,000 as "successful timing." 5-day Bitcoin graph Once the process is complete in Texas, it will be the first time in US history that a state treasury has directly begun holding Bitcoin. This step is expected to serve as an example for other states. Crypto reserve initiatives are expected to accelerate nationwide in the early months of 2025, when the new legislative session begins.
Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin-Collateralized Loan by $130 Million
Tokyo-based digital asset company Metaplanet continues its Bitcoin accumulation strategy without slowing down. The company announced that it has drawn down an additional $130 million from its existing $500 million Bitcoin-secured credit line. This new loan will be used for both additional BTC purchases and the expansion of its revenue-generating activities. Management also states that stock repurchases may be made under favorable market conditions.Metaplanet's announcement covers the loan transaction approved on November 21st. As with the previous $100 million loan, the company withheld counterparty information at the lender's request. The loan reportedly has a variable interest rate denominated in US dollars and automatically renews daily. The company can repay at any time.At the heart of this financing structure is Metaplanet's massive Bitcoin reserves held on its balance sheet. The company holds 30,823 BTC. Valued at approximately $2.7 billion at current prices, this reserve serves both as collateral for the loan and as an additional safety margin during periods of volatility. Metaplanet emphasizes that its financial policy is designed to maintain sufficient margin even during collateral price fluctuations. With the new loan, the total amount disbursed has increased to $230 million.The company announced that the latest financing tranche will be used for three primary purposes: purchasing more BTC, expanding its Bitcoin revenue-generating business, and repurchasing company shares if market conditions permit. On the revenue generation side, the company's plans to generate premium income by selling Bitcoin options are particularly prominent. The BTC used in this strategy will serve as collateral for the relevant option positions.Metaplanet does not expect the loan to have a significant impact on the fiscal year ending in December 2025. However, it was stated that if market conditions change significantly, notification will be made promptly.Share price under pressure, BTC holdings at a lossMetaplanet holds the fourth-largest Bitcoin holding among publicly traded companies. MicroStrategy tops the list, followed by miner Marathon Digital (MARA) and Tether-backed Twenty One. Despite these large BTC holdings, Metaplanet's shares, like many others in the sector, have suffered significant losses in recent months. The company's share price has fallen approximately 81 percent since its summer peak. Its market capitalization-net asset value (mNAV) ratio has also fallen to 0.81.Metaplanet's Bitcoin holdings are currently showing losses on its balance sheet. Its BTC position, with an average cost of $3.3 billion, carries an unrealized loss of approximately $600 million at current prices. Despite this, the company reiterates that it has not abandoned its long-term strategy and continues its Bitcoin-focused growth plan.
$1.9 Billion Outflow in Crypto Funds: BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI in the Red!
Crypto asset investment products experienced a significant wave of outflows last week. According to CoinShares' latest report, a total of $1.94 billion in outflows from crypto funds occurred. This brings the total outflow over the last four weeks to $4.92 billion. This period marked the third-strongest series of outflows since 2018.The weakening of investors' risk appetite continues to pressure both prices and fund flows. Nevertheless, the $258 million inflow on the last trading day of the week signaled a limited, albeit drastic, recovery in market sentiment.Bitcoin funds recover after a large outflowBitcoin products were hit the hardest. $1.27 billion in outflows from BTC funds during the week. This level of outflow suggests that investors remain cautious in the short term. However, the picture changed somewhat on Friday, with $225 million inflows into Bitcoin funds. This movement suggests that, despite the weak weekly outlook, investors are looking to buy at the dips. Interest in short Bitcoin products continues to strengthen. Funds holding short positions saw $19 million in inflows during the week. The total inflow over the last three weeks reached $40 million, representing 23% of the product's assets under management. The increase in AUM for short products is striking; it grew by 119% in just three weeks.Ethereum investment products were also affected by the downturn. $589 million in outflows from ETH funds occurred during the week. This figure represents 7.3% of the funds' total assets. However, similar to Bitcoin, $57.5 million in inflows were seen on Friday, with a limited recovery.Solana weakened in altcoins, while XRP roseThe picture on the altcoin side is mixed.• Solana closed the week negatively with $156 million in outflows.• XRP, however, bucked the general trend and attracted attention with $89.3 million in inflows.XRP emerged as the strongest performing asset of the week. Strong interest in fund flows could also have a supportive effect on the price. The sharpest outflow came from the US.The largest outflow in the regional breakdown came by far from US funds.• US: $1.68 billion outflow• Germany: $118 million outflow• Canada: $27 million outflow• Brazil: $20.9 million inflow• Switzerland and Sweden: total outflows exceeding $130 millionFund flows originating in the US continue to shape the general direction of global flows. This region, where institutional investor behavior is particularly concentrated, was a key factor in the week's downturn.Although there have been heavy outflows in the last four weeks, total inflows since the beginning of the year still stand at $44.4 billion. This suggests that institutional interest remains strong in the bigger picture.Friday's inflows indicate that some investors are beginning to see the decline as an opportunity. If the market strengthens this signal in the coming weeks, fund flows may stabilize.
Calls to Boycott JP Morgan Grow from the Crypto Community
The crypto community has been reacting strongly to JP Morgan for the past 48 hours. Suspicions that the bank is behind the sudden crash in MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares and the sharp decline in Bitcoin are rapidly growing. Calls for a boycott are growing stronger on social media, while investors are discussing both JP Morgan's actions and a possible MSCI index change.Panic began when MicroStrategy and Bitcoin prices plummeted without warning. Markets were stunned until Crypto Banter host Ran Neuner made a claim. Neuner suggested that the possibility of MicroStrategy being delisted from MSCI or NASDAQ might have triggered the price action. This claim immediately changed the topic of discussion.Subsequent news released by MSCI further escalated tensions. It was suggested that the index provider could remove companies holding a large portion of their balance sheets in crypto assets from global indices starting in 2026. This possibility created widespread panic in the markets, and the selling pressure on MicroStrategy intensified. JPMorgan is a targetFrom this point on, tensions shifted to JP Morgan. Trading firm Empery Digital accused the bank of "creating artificial pressure" on MicroStrategy. The firm alleged that JP Morgan's sudden, extremely negative outlook was not normal market commentary; it suggested an orchestrated move.Empery also stated that the bank quietly raised the margin and collateral requirements for MSTR on July 7. This move allegedly created further volatility, forced selling, and deep price declines. Most investors were unaware of this increase, and the sudden liquidations created a knock-on effect.MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor reacted strongly. Saylor emphasized that the company was not merely a "Bitcoin carrier" but a software company generating $500 million in annual revenue. He also emphasized that they had $7.7 billion in Bitcoin-backed financial products.Calls for a boycott spread rapidly.Outrage quickly spread across social media. Influencer Adam B. Liv called for a full-scale boycott of JP Morgan. Liv also brought up some questionable past trading records and Epstein connections. The debate quickly escalated.Another surprising statement came from real estate investor Grant Cardone. Cardone announced that he had withdrawn $20 million from Chase and said he was preparing for legal action. Max Keiser also joined the discussion, saying, "Break up JP Morgan, buy MicroStrategy and Bitcoin."If MSCI's plan goes through, companies with more than 50% of their balance sheets tied to crypto assets could be excluded from the index. This could cut off billions of dollars in passive fund flows. It's rumored that companies will be forced to restructure their balance sheets to mitigate this risk.Another development that escalated the debate was the statements of Strike CEO Jack Mallers. Mallers stated that JP Morgan closed its accounts without providing a reason and downgraded it to "concerning activity." This situation has revived the long-discussed "Operation Chokepoint 2.0" allegations in the US. The Trump administration signed an executive order banning such practices this summer. However, Mallers's experience has sparked speculation that the banking pressure on crypto companies continues.Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, however, supported Mallers, saying, "Bitcoin will survive in the long run, while the institutions that exert pressure will become history."
Fed Official's "Near-Term" Message Sparks Market: Bitcoin Below $84,000
Remarks by New York Fed President John Williams, a senior official at the US Federal Reserve, abruptly changed the market sentiment on Friday. While Williams acknowledged that inflationary progress has "temporarily stalled," he hinted that the Fed may cut interest rates in the near future. While this shift in tone has somewhat restored investors' risk appetite, the selling pressure on Bitcoin has not completely subsided.The cryptocurrency fluctuated sharply between $83,000 and $84,000 during the day, with a 24-hour decline of 8.9%. While the BTC/USD pair showed brief recoveries, the chart reveals that the overall downward trend remains evident. Williams' speech consisted of remarks prepared for an event at the Central Bank of Chile. The renowned economist stated that they estimate the current inflation rate to be approximately 2.75% and emphasized the need to return to the Fed's long-term target of 2% in a "sustainable" manner. However, his statement that the tariffs had a temporary impact on prices and were not expected to translate into permanent inflation drew attention in the market."I believe monetary policy is still relatively restrictive. Therefore, there is still room for some adjustments to the target interest rate range in the near term," Williams said, directly impacting expectations for the Fed's December meeting.Interest Rate Change Expectations for DecemberActivity in derivatives markets increased following these announcements. Traders' positions expecting a December rate cut rose rapidly, pushing the probability above 70%. However, disagreements within the Fed remain evident. According to recent statements, some policymakers are not open to a rate cut until there is clearer evidence that inflation will fall to the 2% target.Williams, however, takes a more "soft" line amid this debate. He states that the labor market is no longer as tight as it was during the pandemic, and that the rise of the unemployment rate to 4.4% is not a major alarm bell for the economy. He emphasizes the importance of achieving the Fed's primary goal of price stability while simultaneously avoiding unnecessary risks to its maximum employment target.On the cryptocurrency side, pricing is quite fragile. Volatility in the dollar index and the search for direction in US bond yields continue to put pressure on Bitcoin. The sharp sell-off seen on the chart deepened, particularly during the Asian session. The pullback to $81,000 during the day increased volumes in the spot market and triggered liquidations in leveraged positions.Nevertheless, some analysts say that the possibility of a "near-term" Fed rate cut could be supportive for Bitcoin in the medium term. However, the market is currently trading under the shadow of macro uncertainty and short-term selling pressure.Under current conditions, the $82,000-$81,000 range represents short-term support for BTC, while the $85,000-$87,000 range represents the first strong resistance zone. Volatility is expected to increase further as the Fed approaches its December meeting.
Cryptocurrencies Shakes: BTC Hits Seven-Month Low, ETFs See Major Exodus
Bitcoin fell below $84,000 on Friday morning, retreating to its lowest level in seven months. Delayed US employment data showed that inflationary pressures were still strong, weakening expectations for a December interest rate cut. The market was already operating on fragile ground; this data accelerated the sell-off and reinforced the "extreme fear" sentiment in the crypto market.The BTC price fell over 7% in 24 hours, falling to $83,930. These levels represent a nearly 32% correction from the October peak of $126,080. The Crypto Fear and Greed index, hovering around 11 points, suggests a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment. The broader market also reflects the same picture; the total crypto market fell more than 6% in the last 24 hours. Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, says the selling pressure is fueled not only by macro uncertainty but also by a lack of liquidity. According to Liu, the strong employment data disrupted the pricing of the expected December interest rate cut; short-term profit-taking accelerated the decline. The analyst emphasized that the Fed's suspension of tightening measures alone will not be sufficient for a sustainable recovery, emphasizing the need for capital inflows, on-chain demand, and a recovery in risk appetite.The US nonfarm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000. Market expectations were only 50,000. The strong data contradicted previous signals of weakening employment and pointed to persistent inflationary pressure. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December hovers around 35%. This rate suggests that market confidence in a rate cut remains weak.Bitcoin ETFs "Near Record" OutflowAnother factor in the market's pressure was the sharp outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. A total of $903 million was withdrawn from eight US ETFs, marking the largest daily net outflow since the tariff-fueled sell-off in February. BlackRock's IBIT product saw $355 million, Grayscale's GBTC fund $199 million, and Fidelity's FBTC fund $190 million. Many analysts agree that this reflects the increasing risk aversion not only in Bitcoin but also in US equities.BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas notes that this week's move signals a "clear reversal of sentiment," with risks to Nvidia's balance sheet also weighing on tech stocks. The decline in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has further highlighted the general liquidity crunch reflected in cryptocurrencies.Still, the outlook isn't entirely bleak. According to Lucas, total cumulative inflows into ETFs currently stand at $57 billion, and total assets under management by funds are $113 billion, representing a significant portion of Bitcoin's market capitalization. Therefore, it's premature to say institutional investors have completely abandoned the market. Ethereum, on the other hand, saw daily outflows of $261 million, while inflows into newly launched altcoin ETFs continued.
US Report Surprises: How Strong Employment Impacted Cryptos
The delayed employment data released following the historically long government shutdown in the US has created a cautious price in crypto markets. The nonfarm payrolls report, normally released on the first Friday of each month, was released today due to the 43-day-plus shutdown. While the September figures reveal that the economy created jobs above expectations, the rise in the unemployment rate cast a more mixed tone on the data. This picture has reopened discussion about the possibility of a rate cut for the Fed's December meeting.119,000 new jobs announcedAccording to data released by the US Department of Labor, the economy created 119,000 new jobs in September. Market expectations were 53,000. Furthermore, the previous figure of 22,000 was revised downward, not upward, suggesting that summer employment growth was weaker than anticipated. The significant downward revisions to the July and August data suggest that employment momentum has slowed since the summer.However, the picture is not entirely positive. The unemployment rate, at 4.4%, exceeded expectations. Economists expected the data to remain at 4.3%. Despite strong employment growth, this rise in unemployment indicated a more complex labor market outlook than anticipated. Furthermore, due to the government shutdown, October employment data will not be released at all. This further narrows the data set available for investors to analyze as the Fed approaches its final meeting of the year.The market's initial pricing reflects this uncertainty. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a December interest rate cut has fallen to 31.8% from 100% a month ago. The probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady is priced in at 68.2%. Under normal circumstances, strong employment data would have lifted the dollar index; however, the DXY only saw limited movement, settling at 100.15. This suggests that markets are hesitant to take overly aggressive positions as they attempt to understand the Fed's response.A similar cautious approach prevails in the crypto market. Immediately after the data release, Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a narrow range of around $500, trading at $92,230. Ethereum (ETH) settled around $3,034. Normally, strong employment data can trigger sharper sell-offs in risk assets; however, the limited initial response suggests that crypto investors are trying to absorb macro uncertainties. According to some analysts, the continued resilience of employment could prompt the Fed to act more cautiously at its final meeting of the year. This is a key factor in determining Bitcoin's short-term direction. Meanwhile, the price of gold rose slightly intraday to around $4,080 in the commodity market, which is the source of the data; however, the real volatility will be seen in the crypto market.Investors are now focused on next week's PMI and inflation indicators. These data will provide clues about the Fed's policy stance heading into 2025. Cautious pricing in the crypto market is expected to continue for a short time.
Bitcoin Under Hard Pressure: Fed Minutes Deepen Decline
Bitcoin is under sharp pressure again, and the market landscape appears more complex than in previous corrections. The price fell to $88,600 on Wednesday, a level not seen since April. Compared to the start of the year, BTC is still down approximately 5 percent. The decline coincided with the release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes, the FOMC meeting, and further shaken market sentiment.The minutes reveal that the disagreements among Fed members have reached their most pronounced level this year. One group argues that the economy is softening, signs of a cooling in the labor market are becoming evident, and that more cautious policy is needed. Another, stating that inflation still hasn't sustained its 2% target, believes interest rates should remain steady. The fact that one member calls for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while another advocates "no cuts at all," highlights the broad division within the board.This situation was immediately reflected in the market. The probability of a 25 basis point cut on Polymarket in December was 52% before the minutes, but dropped to 30% after the announcement. The market currently assigns an approximately 70% probability to interest rates remaining stable. CME FedWatch data confirms this division.As macro uncertainty rises again, the already fragile Bitcoin structure has been further disrupted. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde states that a "dangerous leverage" structure has emerged in the derivatives market. The increase in open interest in futures positions, exceeding 36,000 BTC in the past week, is the largest increase since April 2023. The positive funding rate suggests that most investors are still attempting to buy reactively, in other words, the typical "catch the knife when it falls" behavior is evident in the market. Lunde notes that this structure has generally resulted in deeper declines in previous periods.According to the analyst, a strong bottom could form between $84,000 and $86,000; However, if the sell-off accelerates, a retest of the $74,500 low from April is also possible. The situation is no different for Ethereum; ETH has fallen to around $2,870, falling below $3,000 for the first time since July. XRP, on the other hand, is trading at a significant threshold, approaching $2 again after five months.QCP Capital's assessments also explain the extent of the decline. The company states that the sell-off is not due to a single reason, but rather to weakening liquidity conditions, continued ETF outflows, and a sharp reversal in macroeconomic expectations. In particular, the decline in the probability of an interest rate cut, which was considered a certainty in December, to 50% within the week quickly dampened risk appetite. The liquidation of a $559 million leveraged position in the last 24 hours also demonstrates this effect.QCP emphasizes that while stocks are supported by strong balance sheets and artificial intelligence-focused institutional investments, Bitcoin does not enjoy the same protection. Due to BTC's reliance on liquidity, the impact of ETF outflows is magnified. The institution also notes that labor force data and the LEI indicator, due this week, could inform Fed policy, and therefore volatility is expected to remain high for some time.Bitcoin Price UpdateFollowing this decline, Bitcoin price has returned above $90,000. At the time of writing, it is trading at $91,900, a 0.7 percent increase.
Historic Step from a US State: Bitcoin-Collateralized Municipal Bond
New Hampshire has approved the first Bitcoin-backed municipal bond in the US, marking a new chapter in the integration of crypto assets with traditional finance. The state's business support agency, the New Hampshire Business Finance Authority (BFA), greenlit a $100 million Bitcoin-backed conduit bond on November 17. This move is seen as a milestone that could enable the entry of digital assets into the $140 trillion global debt market.The approved structure allows companies to use overcollateralized Bitcoin held in private custody as debt instruments. Bitcoin assets will be held by BitGo, and investor protection will be provided entirely through this collateral. BFA acts solely as an intermediary, managing and approving the process; no government or taxpayers bear any risk.Wave Digital Assets and Rosemawr Management, a municipal bond specialist, are behind this financial innovation. The product is designed to align with the traditional framework governing municipal and corporate bonds. Wave co-founder Les Borsai states that their goal is to "combine traditional fixed-income markets and digital assets in a fully institutional and scalable model."The state government considers this step a strategic initiative. New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte described this Bitcoin-backed bond as a "historic innovation" and highlighted the state's pioneering role in embracing technology. According to Ayotte, this model will open new investment channels without risking the state budget.How does Bitcoin collateral work?The mechanism of Bitcoin collateral is also noteworthy. According to the structure, borrowers must deposit approximately 160% of the bond value in Bitcoin as collateral. If Bitcoin's value falls below 130%, an automatic liquidation mechanism is activated, guaranteeing full repayment of bond investors. This model allows borrowing institutions to access capital without selling Bitcoin or incurring tax liabilities. BFA Director James Key-Wallace announced that the fees and potential collateral gains from these transactions will support entrepreneurship and job growth in the state through a new fund called the "Bitcoin Economic Development Fund." This aims to create a circular financial ecosystem that will create value for both the public and private sectors.This initiative follows the first US state legislature allowing the state treasury to invest in Bitcoin. Earlier this year, New Hampshire legalized the investment of up to 5% of public funds in digital assets, becoming the country's first "strategic Bitcoin reserve."According to experts, if this model proves successful, other states are likely to pursue similar Bitcoin-backed debt instruments. This move could set a precedent for the integration of crypto assets into mainstream financial infrastructure, particularly considering the $58.2 trillion US bond market.
Bitcoin Comment from Standard Chartered: "Sell-off is Over”
While Bitcoin's plunge below $90,000 on November 18th created significant anxiety in the crypto market, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, says this pullback is a cyclical correction and that selling pressure may have largely ended. Bitcoin tested a seven-month low during the days when investors panicked; however, according to Kendrick, the pattern is quite similar to past corrections, suggesting that the bottom may have already been seen.Kendrick describes the recent decline as "a version of a rapid and painful post-ETF correction." Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in 2024, Bitcoin has experienced three major pullbacks, each resulting in a strong recovery. Standard Chartered believes this third major correction follows the same pattern. As short-term investors accelerated selling, ETF inflows slowed, and the market's liquidity weakened, some indicators dipped into oversold territory. One of these is the decline of MicroStrategy's mNAV ratio back to 1.0. This metric means the company's market capitalization is parity with Bitcoin holdings, and according to Kendrick, such readings near zero generally signal bottoming. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index's decline to 15 is another indicator of extreme panic in the market.Market signals are improvingAnalysts note that despite the deepening pullback, long-term signals are improving. Most ETF investors are nearing breakeven, and on-chain accumulation behavior suggests that high-conviction buyers have begun buying. The quiet accumulation of large investors during days of accelerated retail investor selling is considered by many experts to be the final stage of the correction.While market volatility continues, Standard Chartered believes there has been no dramatic deterioration in the broader macro picture. Kendrick notes that liquidity conditions and inflation data, in particular, support risk appetite, and that ETF inflows are likely to regain momentum in December. The analyst, who previously announced his year-end target of $200,000, emphasized that "the rally remains the baseline scenario," although he didn't reaffirm it today.Meanwhile, some analysts point out that the market remains fragile. Nansen's Nicolai Sondergaard says that market depth has decreased by approximately 30 percent since the major liquidation on October 10th, causing prices to react sharply even to small sell-offs. He doesn't completely rule out the possibility of an "extension" to the mid-$80,000s in the options market; however, current levels or a rapid recovery are more likely.In conclusion, Bitcoin's sub-$90,000 surge has created a cold shower in the market; however, the outlook for major institutions remains unchanged. The view that we are entering a period of diminishing selling pressure, improving on-chain data, and supportive macro conditions is gaining strength. If ETF outflows slow down and the $95,000-$100,000 range is breached again, the year-end rally that Standard Chartered is signaling is still on the table. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $91,280.
BTC Comment and Price Analysis - November 19, 2025
BTC Technical AnalysesAnalyzing the chart on the daily time frame, wee see that BTC has pulled back exactly into the expected zone on the daily chart. This zone refers to the 0.618–0.66 Fibonacci area. This zone has acted as a demand region in the past and often marks trend reversals. The price is currently trying to hold inside this band.The RSI is also moving into the bottom zone, showing that selling pressure is weakening and momentum is fading. When we combine these signals, the current levels show a strong chance for a rebound.Short-term outlook:As long as BTC holds above the 0.618 level ($91,100), the potential for a bounce remains strong.If a rebound begins, the first resistance zone is between $96,900 – $103,000.A break above this area would bring back bullish momentum.If the price drops:The last possible retracement zone is between the 0.66 – 0.79 levels ($89,100 – $83,200).Even a test of the 0.79 level would not break the larger bullish structure.In summary:BTC is currently sitting in the “golden ratio” zone, where reversals often occur. A single strong green candle from this region would likely confirm a short-term recovery. BTC Critical Zone These analyses, not offering any kind of investment advice, focus on support and resistance levels considered to offer trading opportunities in the short and medium term according to the market conditions. However,traders are responsible for their own actions and risk management. Morover, it is highly recommended to use stop loss (SL) during trades.
Mt. Gox Wallets Are Back in Action: Bitcoin Transfer Completed After 8 Months
Mt. Gox, one of the most controversial names in cryptocurrency history, broke its long silence and carried out a massive Bitcoin transfer. According to Arkham Intelligence data, 10,422.6 BTC, or approximately $936 million, was moved from addresses belonging to the bankrupt exchange to a new wallet on Tuesday. This move came after eight months of inactivity and renewed uncertainty surrounding the repayment process.The timing of the transaction is particularly noteworthy, as the Bitcoin price has been experiencing sharp fluctuations in recent days, and sensitivity to selling pressure is high. This transfer by Mt. Gox is the largest since March. At the time, the exchange made another significant transfer worth 11,834 BTC, which triggered similar concerns in the markets.According to Arkham Intelligence's current data, approximately 34,689 BTC are currently held in Mt. Gox addresses. This amount has a market value of around $3.1 billion. Therefore, every major transfer is closely monitored by crypto investors. "This isn't a sale, it's a preparation."As news of the transfer spread, questions about the possibility of a mass sell-off originating from Mt. Gox intensified in the markets. However, on-chain experts state that the move doesn't directly imply a sale. Analysts generally agree that such transactions are restructurings between hot and cold wallets.Analyst Xinsidercrypto commented, "This isn't a sale; no BTC has been released. This is merely preparation; real selling pressure only begins when assets are transferred to exchanges." Another expert stated that while the movement of more than 10,000 BTC might seem "frightening" at first glance, the Mt. Gox process has been progressing according to a schedule that has been known and expected for years.The Never-Ending Refund ProcessMt. Gox experienced one of the crypto world's biggest crashes following a massive 2014 hack in which 850,000 BTC were lost. Approximately 200,000 BTC were recovered during years of legal proceedings, and a "civil rehabilitation" program was launched for their distribution.Although the company began the first repayments in mid-2024, the process is progressing at a painful pace. Last month, a statement announced that the repayment date had been postponed to October 31, 2026. Rehabilitation officer Nobuaki Kobayashi stated that many creditors still had not received payments and that there were ongoing procedures to resolve.Therefore, it is highly likely that the recent BTC transfer was related to repayment preparations. However, the lack of confirmation makes the move even more speculative. Such a large transfer, especially at a time when the Bitcoin price had fallen below $90,000, created additional market stress.
Huge Bitcoin Purchase from Strategy: 8,178 More BTC Entered the Basket
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), one of the largest players in the Bitcoin treasuries space, launched another massive acquisition wave in mid-November. The company announced the purchase of 8,178 BTC between November 10 and 16. The total purchases amounted to approximately $835.6 million, with an average cost of $102,171. With this transaction, the company's total Bitcoin holdings increased to 649,870 BTC, worth approximately $61.7 billion at current prices.Michael Saylor, the company's largest shareholder and chairman, stated in a statement following the latest acquisition that their average BTC cost was $74,433. Strategy's current position represents more than 3% of the Bitcoin supply. The company's on-paper return at the current price range is approximately $13.3 billion.The new purchases were funded by funds from Strategy's perpetual preferred stock offerings. These instruments, codenamed STRK, STRF, STRC, and STRE, form the backbone of the company's massive Bitcoin acquisition strategy. STRE, in particular, stands out as the company's first euro-denominated perpetual preferred stock issue. The Strategy's total capital increase target is $84 billion by 2027. This target was updated by doubling the company's previous "21/21" plan.This purchase, which Saylor highlighted last week with his "₿ig week" message, represents the largest BTC addition since the summer. Just a few days earlier, the company had announced an additional purchase of 487 BTC. This brought the Strategy to approximately 8,600 BTC in the first half of November. Response to selling allegationsWhile the number of companies adopting the Bitcoin treasury model continues to grow, most stocks in the sector appear to have suffered significant losses since the summer. The Strategy's market capitalization/net asset value (mNAV) ratio has also fallen to 0.93. Despite this, Bernstein analysts state that this decline creates a false perception that the company will sell Bitcoin, emphasizing that this is "untrue." According to the analysts, Strategy's debt level is reasonable, and its dividend obligations are manageable.Saylor also strongly denied the sales allegations. Responding to the claim that "47,000 BTC were sold" circulating on social media last week, Saylor said this was a misconception stemming from wallet rotations on the blockchain analysis platform Arkham. "The reality is: We're not selling, we're buying. And we're buying seriously," he said.While Strategy's share price closed last week with a sharp decline, the company is determined to maintain its aggressive buying policy despite Bitcoin price fluctuations. In Saylor's words, the company believes it has a capital structure that "can weather even a 90% Bitcoin decline over 4-5 years."
BTC and 3 Altcoins Funds Outflow: Market Pressure Escalates
Global crypto investment products experienced a record capital outflow of $2 billion last week. The latest data from CoinShares indicates the sharpest weekly decline since February. This suggests that both uncertainty about a macro-level interest rate cut and the sell-off by large crypto investors are putting new pressure on the market.CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill states that the reshaping of interest rate cut expectations in recent weeks has disrupted investor behavior. Combined with the accelerated selling by large wallets, the three-week total outflow has reached $3.2 billion. The pullback in digital asset prices has reduced total assets under management from $264 billion in early October to $191 billion.The US is at the center of these outflows. The $1.97 billion outflow alone accounts for 97 percent of global capital losses. This figure demonstrates a significant weakening of risk appetite across a broad spectrum, from institutional investors to individual funds. Switzerland and Hong Kong also contributed to the negative outflows, with outflows of $39.9 million and $12.3 million, respectively.Germany, however, painted a completely different picture. German investors capitalized on the recent declines, generating net inflows of $13.2 million. Butterfill emphasized that Germany's historical tendency to be more "opportunity-focused" during downturns resurfaced this week.The Latest Bitcoin and Altcoin OutlookOutflows were sharp on Bitcoin. Last week, $1.38 billion in investment products were withdrawn from the market. The three-week total loss represents approximately 2 percent of the managed assets of Bitcoin ETPs. The outflow for Ethereum is proportionally weaker. The weekly outflow of $689 million corresponds to 4 percent of the AuM in Ethereum products. Solana saw outflows of $8.3 million and XRP of $15.5 million. These figures reflect continued risk aversion across a broad segment of the market. However, the picture is not entirely one-sided. In the last three weeks, $69 million inflows were generated into multi-asset investment products. Investors' tendency to diversify during volatile periods is strengthening. The increased demand for short-bitcoin products is also noteworthy; net inflows over the three weeks reached $18.1 million. This movement suggests investors are taking more aggressive hedging positions against downside risk.Following the US government reopening, there were expectations of a short-term market relief. However, these hopes quickly dissipated. The Bitcoin price fell to six-month lows, testing the $95,000 level. The delay in the influx of fresh liquidity on the macro side and the selling pressure in the cryptocurrency are delaying the market recovery for now.
Bitcoin Drops: Billions of Dollars Out of ETFs for Three Consecutive Weeks
The Bitcoin market entered the weekend with a sharp sell-off, hitting a new low that pushed the price to a six-month low. The sell-off, which accelerated on Sunday afternoon, pushed BTC to $93,000, and analysts say this sharp move, despite no apparent compelling reason, is due to a "structural disruption." The Kobeissi Letter team considers this surge in volatility not a random wave but the beginning of a new bear cycle. Bitcoin has lost approximately 25 percent of its value since its all-time high in early October. While the price eased to the $95,000 range amid the sharp sell-off over the weekend, analysts describe this decline as "strange." The current macro environment suggests a more positive backdrop for Bitcoin under normal circumstances. Inflation in the US is slowly declining, the Fed continues its interest rate cuts, and expectations for a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing have strengthened. President Trump even recently stated that "America should be number one in crypto." Therefore, the market's downward movement isn't based on a classic negative development. The Kobeissi team states that the decline is a "mechanical and structural" disruption, triggered by the massive outflow of institutions at the end of October. In the first week of November alone, there was a net outflow of $1.2 billion from crypto funds, one of the largest weekly outflows ever recorded.Increasing Leverage Use: A Major Problem in the MarketThe problem is compounded by leverage. The outflow of institutional funds, coupled with the high leverage used in derivatives markets, has exacerbated price movements. Liquidations exceeded $1 billion in three of the last 16 trading days. Daily liquidations exceeding $500 million have become commonplace. When such large liquidations occur during periods of relatively weak trading volume, the market moves sharply in both directions. This causes sentiment to shift from extreme optimism to intense fear within a few days.The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index fell to its lowest level since February over the weekend. Interestingly, BTC is still 25% above its April lows. Analysts summarized the reason for the current volatility by saying, "Leverage magnifies even the smallest shift in investor sentiment."ETF outflows are at their peakMeanwhile, ETF outflows are also weighing on the picture. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total outflow of $1.11 billion between November 10 and 14. BlackRock's IBIT fund alone lost $532 million. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust saw outflows of approximately $290 million in a single week. This trend suggests a short-term cooling in institutional demand.A total of $617 million was liquidated in the crypto market over the weekend, $243 million of which came from BTC and $169 million from ETH. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $95,200, its lowest level in the last six months. Despite this outlook, analysts at Kobeissi Letter argue that the market's fundamentals continue to strengthen. The macro outlook is supportive, regulatory uncertainty is decreasing, and some long-term investors see these levels as an opportunity to accumulate. The analysts note, "These structural breaks will clear over time. The bottom may be near," indicating that this process is temporary.
