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ETH Comment and Price Analysis - October 31, 2025
ETH Technical AnalysisEthereum is experiencing renewed activity. As on-chain transaction volume and tokenization projects grow, year-end ETH price predictions have been revised upwards. Standard Chartered announced a target of $7,500 by the end of the year. Furthermore, the Fusaka update, expected to go live in December, will further increase the network's efficiency. In light of all these developments, let's take a look at the technical outlook for ETH's price. Falling Channel Formation Analyzing the chart on a daily time frame, we can clearly observe that Ethereum is still trading inside a falling channel. The $3,578–$3,708 range stands out as a strong horizontal support zone, and the price is currently trying to hold around this key intersection where the lower channel meets this support. A rebound toward the channel’s mid-line remains likely as long as ETH stays above $3,578. The first resistance level is $3,708, followed by a stronger barrier around $4,143, which aligns with the channel’s upper zone. If this level is broken with volume, ETH could extend its move toward $4,551.However, losing $3,578 could trigger stronger selling pressure, pushing the price down toward $3,235, where the lower channel support and a key horizontal level align.Support & Resistance LevelsSupport levels: $3,708 – $3,578 – $3,235Resistance levels: $3,800 – $4,143 – $4,551 – $4,956Summary:ETH is testing a critical support zone. Holding above $3,578 keeps the recovery potential alive, while a breakdown below this level may open the door to a deeper correction toward the lower channel.
$17 Billion in Options on Bitcoin and ETH Expires Today
The crypto market is preparing for one of the largest derivatives transactions of October. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts, with a total value approaching $17 billion, will expire on Friday, October 31, 2025, on the Deribit exchange. According to Deribit data, Bitcoin accounts for $13.5 billion of the expiring contracts, while Ethereum accounts for $2.5 billion. This volume surpassed last week's $6 billion weekly close, making October one of the most active periods of the year.Cautious Optimism on BitcoinBitcoin's price was trading around $109,000 at the time of writing. There are more than 124,000 Bitcoin options contracts expiring, and the "max pain" level, or the price point where the greatest loss occurs, is set at $114,000. Historically, the Bitcoin price tends to trend toward these levels as expiration approaches. This is because market makers adjust their positions accordingly to hedge against these levels. The put/call ratio is hovering around 0.70, indicating that investors are not overly pessimistic but rather cautiously optimistic. However, market data indicates that the market is "fragile," and selling pressure may increase in areas below $112,000. The $106,000 support level is considered critical in the event of a potential decline.Ethereum Takes a More Cautious StanceOn the Ethereum side, more than 646,000 options contracts are set to expire on Friday. Total volume is $2.49 billion. The "maximum pain" level is set at $4,100, just above the current price. While Ethereum's put/call ratio is also 0.70, traders are generally more cautious. Deribit analysts commented, "Ethereum positions are cautiously optimistic. However, investors are still hedging against a potential downside." The number of open interest on the ETH side has fallen to around 70,000 in the last month, indicating a decline in trader interest. This strengthens the possibility of a period of sideways movement or consolidation in the market.Macro Trends and ExpectationsAnalysts note that the easing of trade tensions between the US and China has increased risk appetite, but markets remain cautious. The Deribit team warned, "While the overall macro outlook is turning positive, market participants should be prepared for a potential increase in volatility." This $17 billion maturity event could determine the short-term direction of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. The maximum pain levels of $114,000 (BTC) and $4,100 (ETH) could cause prices to temporarily retreat to these levels. However, if no new catalysts emerge, a period of directionless consolidation is also possible in the market.At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,500, while Ethereum is trading around $3,800.
Ethereum Announces Date for "Fusaka": It Will Be Activated on December 3
Ethereum developers have announced the official date for the long-awaited "Fusaka" upgrade. This update, the network's second hard fork in 2025, will go live on the Ethereum mainnet on December 3rd. The decision was made unanimously at the All Core Developers Consensus Layer (ACDC) meeting held on Thursday.Fusaka is seen as a new milestone in Ethereum's scalability and efficiency goals. Developers state that they are now ready to bring many technologies tested in previous updates to the mainnet. The update includes a total of 12 different Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), the most notable of which is the "PeerDAS" system.Faster and Cheaper Ethereum with PeerDASPeer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS) allows validators to verify only a portion of the data in blocks. This system eliminates the need to download full datasets, significantly reducing network bandwidth usage. As a result, costs for both validators and Layer-2 networks are reduced, while transactions can be processed much faster.Ethereum Foundation researcher Alex Stokes stated that despite the technical burden of the update, the teams successfully completed the process, saying, “This will be a truly amazing fork. Thanks to everyone involved.”Testnet phase completed smoothlyFusaka was successfully tested on three separate testnets before going live on the mainnet on December 3rd. After the Holesky and Sepolia testnets, it was finally deployed on the Hoodi network without any errors. This led to Ethereum receiving the green light for mainnet launch. The update will activate when slot 13,164,544 is reached on the Ethereum blockchain.One of the most significant impacts of Fusaka is that it will increase the block gas limit from 30 million units to 150 million. This increase will allow for significantly more transactions to be processed in each block. The “blob capacity” will also be doubled, increasing data availability for rollups and other scaling solutions. These changes will help Ethereum provide a more robust infrastructure for DeFi applications and high-throughput projects.The Ethereum Foundation launched a four-week bug hunting program for the Fusaka codebase ahead of its mainnet launch. This competition, which offers up to $2 million in rewards to security researchers, aims to identify potential vulnerabilities before the mainnet transition.The Fusaka update ushers in a new era in Ethereum's long-term roadmap, described as the "Era of Efficiency and Accessibility." Innovations like PeerDAS will increase network capacity, reduce transaction costs, and create a more scalable environment for developers.At the time of writing, the ETH price is trading at $3,830.77, a 1.7% decrease.
JPMorgan Takes Historic Step: Bitcoin and Ethereum Can Now Be Used as Collateral
According to a report by Bloomberg on October 24, JPMorgan Chase is preparing to allow its institutional clients to use Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as collateral.The bank has long maintained a cautious stance on digital assets; however, the rise in institutional interest in blockchain technology and digital currencies in recent years has led JPMorgan to adopt a more proactive approach. This new system will allow institutions to use digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for loans, increasing their capital efficiency. According to Bloomberg, this move is considered a "first" in the banking industry in terms of both risk management and asset diversification.The bank has been known to have blockchain-focused projects underway for years (notably its own payment network, Onyx, and the JPM Coin system). Recent moves are now transitioning the financial institution into a more comprehensive structure that directly encompasses crypto assets. This move, of course, doesn't only affect JPMorgan; large financial institutions generally follow each other's lead. Therefore, the decision could create a general "green light" atmosphere within the sector. JPMorgan's analysis attracted attentionMeanwhile, JPMorgan is continuously sharing its analyses in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. The organization's latest analysis emphasized that fintech giant Stripe is positioned at the center of two major waves driving the transformation of global finance: the rise of AI-powered commerce and the evolution of digital currency. Analysts state that the market where these two fields intersect could surpass $350 billion before the end of the decade, and that Stripe is one of the companies that will benefit most from this transformation.Stripe is a financial ecosystem active in 200 countries, reaching $1.4 trillion in annual transaction volume. The company plays a critical role in the financial transactions of AI startups. Specifically, it is laying the foundation for a new era called "agentic commerce," in which AI systems can make financial decisions autonomously.In addition, Stripe has also entered the crypto world. The company acquired stablecoin management platform Bridge and wallet startup Privy, and is working on a new Layer-1 blockchain called "Tempo," developed in partnership with Paradigm. This network, which has reached a valuation of $5 billion, is designed for practical financial transactions. According to JPMorgan, this vision positions Stripe at the center of the future digital finance architecture.However, analysts emphasize that regulations such as MiCA regulations in Europe and stablecoin audits in the US could impact Stripe's growth. However, according to JPMorgan's assessment, Stripe's scale, innovation, and deep integration with artificial intelligence could make it a defining player in the new era of digital finance.
$6 Billion in Options Expires: BTC and ETH Under Pressure
The final trading day of the week in crypto markets is marked by intense stress. With approximately $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today, investors have strengthened their defensive positions against the long-anticipated downward wave. According to Deribit data, $4.8 billion worth of contracts are expiring on the Bitcoin side. The put-call ratio is at 0.83, indicating higher demand for put options than for calls.Critical Levels for Bitcoin and ETHBitcoin is trading around $105,000. While the price is struggling to hold just above key support levels, data from the futures and options markets indicate a weak outlook in the short term. The "maximum pain," or the level where investors will face the most losses, is around $116,000. This level confirms that expectations for an upward movement in the market are weak, as it suggests that many contracts will expire worthless. The outlook for Ethereum is similar. ETH is trading around $3,700, while the $4,100 level represents a significant threshold, both technically and from an options perspective. With more than 250,000 ETH contracts expiring, the put-call ratio is at 0.81. This ratio suggests that the majority of investors are opting for downside hedging strategies. One of the main reasons for the recent market unrest is the $50 million loss suffered by Selini Capital. The fund's significant loss due to a failed derivatives transaction has created a cascading anxiety among market makers. The cautious approach of liquidity providers, in particular, has led to a significant decline in trading volumes.Macroeconomic developments are also impacting cryptocurrencies.Global political and economic uncertainties have also added to this picture. The Trump administration's volatile statements on trade and energy policies have almost completely suppressed risk appetite. Investors are turning to hedging positions again as uncertainty grows. This "political noise" is seen as one of the main reasons for the selling pressure on crypto assets. Analysts consider $93,500 a potential bottom for Bitcoin, with $100,000 representing a short-term recovery threshold. However, current data suggests the market will remain sideways and tense for some time before approaching these levels.The negative trend seen in the options market suggests that investors are preparing for increased volatility. Put-heavy trading increases the likelihood of further price declines. However, some investors are aiming to capitalize on short-term rebounds by selling put options near the bottom after this sharp sell-off.The overall picture suggests a cautious approach in the crypto market. As long as the flood crisis subsides and the macroeconomic picture remains clear, a recovery in risk appetite appears unlikely. Options data also suggests that the market's next major move could still be downward.
Despite the Crash, $3.17 Billion Inflows into Crypto Funds
Despite last Friday's major market crash, crypto investment products had a strong week. According to CoinShares data, digital asset investment funds recorded a total net inflow of $3.17 billion over the last seven days. This brings the total amount of money entering funds throughout 2025 to $48.7 billion, surpassing last year's record.US President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs on China was the driving force behind the sharp market fluctuations. This triggered a global sell-off, quickly liquidating over $20 billion in positions. However, James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that Friday's panic selling had limited impact on funds: "Despite the sharp market correction, there was only a weak outflow of $159 million on Friday."Trading volumes hit recordsAnother noteworthy piece of data in the report was the record increase in trading volume. Weekly trading volume for crypto investment products reached $53 billion, with $15.3 billion in transactions on Friday alone. This figure is twice the 2025 average. However, total assets under management (AUM) decreased by 7% on a weekly basis, falling from $254 billion to $242 billion.Bitcoin funds took the leadThe highest inflows throughout the week occurred in Bitcoin-focused investment products. $2.67 billion flowed into Bitcoin funds, bringing the total inflow since the beginning of the year to $30.2 billion. However, this figure is still approximately 30% below the $41.7 billion total in 2024. Butterfill also emphasized that trading volumes reached an all-time high of $10.4 billion during Friday's price correction.Ethereum investment products also managed to close the week positively. ETH funds saw $338 million inflows, while Ethereum also experienced the largest individual loss of the week, with a single-day outflow of $172 million on Friday. Butterfill stated that investors considered Ether products "the most vulnerable asset" during the market crash. Altcoin funds slowedA significant slowdown was observed in leading altcoin investment products like Solana and XRP. Solana funds saw inflows of $93.3 million, while XRP funds saw inflows of $61.6 million. These figures were significantly lower than the previous week's massive inflows of $706.5 million and $219 million, respectively. Despite this decline, experts believe that the expected Solana and XRP ETF approvals in the US could generate new momentum in the market. However, as long as the current government shutdown continues, these approvals are likely to be delayed. Currently, at least 16 crypto ETF applications are awaiting approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, "a flood of spot crypto ETFs will be expected" as the government reopens.
Bitcoin and Altcoins Rebound After Historic $19 Billion Purge
Bitcoin and Ethereum have staged a remarkable recovery after the sharp decline over the weekend. The sell-off that began on Friday led to the largest liquidations in crypto history to date. However, analysts believe the bullish sentiment dubbed "Uptober" hasn't completely faded; the market is regaining its footing after a short-lived shock.$19.1 billion in cryptocurrency positions liquidatedAccording to Coinglass data, more than 1.6 million investors liquidated positions on Friday alone, closing a total of $19.1 billion. Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000, while Ethereum fell to $3,500. This sharp decline was triggered by macroeconomic developments. China's new restrictions on rare earth exports and the US's retaliatory announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese technology products have shaken global risk perception. This news, arriving just as markets were closed, combined with low liquidity over the weekend, led to a cascade of liquidations. Presto Research researcher Rick Maeda stated that the crash was “not a crypto-specific panic, but a macro-driven liquidation wave.” According to Maeda, the sell-offs amplified by low trading volumes over the weekend, leading to billions of dollars in forced liquidations. “A purge of this scale has de-leveraged the system. The rise we’re seeing now is a result of this mechanical process,” he said. He added that investors aren’t overly concerned about the US-China tariffs: “Polymarket data only prices in a 15% chance that these tariffs will take effect by November 1st. This suggests the market views these risks as limited.”Bitcoin at $115,000Bitcoin’s price has stabilized after the weekend’s sharp sell-off, trading at $115,220 at the beginning of the week. Ethereum is also trading at $4,163, up 0.3% in the last 24 hours. The rest of the market is also showing signs of a slight recovery; BNB rose 1.9 percent to $1.327, while XRP rose 8.2 percent to $2.59. Solana is trading around $196. The total market capitalization has risen again above $2.3 trillion, with trading volumes reaching $91.9 billion for Bitcoin and $60 billion for Ethereum. Analyst Vincent Liu interpreted this recovery as a sign of "recovering risk appetite following panic selling." According to Kronos Research's investment director, the reduction in leverage and easing of tariff concerns have "re-encouraged the market." Liu said, "Traders are currently monitoring factors such as tariffs, technical trend lines, and dollar strength to test whether Bitcoin can sustain this upward trend."Nassar Achkar, CoinW's strategy director, maintains that the "Uptober" trend is still alive. He believes investors are now focused on macroeconomic indicators, particularly the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Fed's interest rate decision, for direction. "ETF flows also indicate continued institutional interest in the market, suggesting a sustained recovery," he added.LVRG Research director Nick Ruck also noted the promising on-chain data. According to Ruck, whales have reaccumulated in many assets, particularly Ethereum. "Technical indicators are signaling a strong reversal from oversold territory. This confirms the bottoms for many altcoins," he said.Despite this, Maeda believes the scars of the market's "trauma" will not fade easily. "We are facing the largest liquidation event in crypto history. This will have a lasting impact on investor psychology. The market is now much more sensitive to macro shocks, especially the US-China trade tension," he warned.Looking at the overall picture, the crypto market is seeking stability again after a period of significant volatility. The "Uptober" sentiment has been dashed, but it hasn't completely faded. Deleveraging, on-chain buying, and institutional inflows from ETFs are creating cautious optimism in the short term. Bitcoin holding steady around $115,000 and Ethereum holding above $4,000 suggest investors are regaining confidence for now.
$5.6 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expires Today
Volatility in the crypto market could rise again this weekend. According to Deribit data, a total of $5.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are expiring today. This development both increases uncertainty about price direction and suggests that sharp market movements are possible heading into the weekend.Critical level for Bitcoin: $118,000Bitcoin options account for the majority of this massive expiration volume. A total of $4.7 billion worth of contracts are set to expire today. According to analysts, the "maximum pain" level in the market before this expiration, or the price at which option buyers incur the most losses, is around $118,000. This level is also seen as a key short-term support level for Bitcoin. Deribit data shows that Bitcoin investors' positions are split in two: one group is focused on $110,000 worth of put options, while the other maintains bullish expectations with $120,000 worth of calls. This imbalance could pave the way for sharp price movements heading into the weekend.Bitcoin's put/call ratio in the options market is currently at 1.10. This ratio suggests that investors are seeking some downside protection, but the overall outlook remains balanced.More optimistic sentiment prevails on EthereumThe outlook for Ethereum is slightly more positive. Approximately $944.5 million worth of ETH options will expire today. Ethereum's put/call ratio is at 0.90, meaning there are more buy positions than sell positions. This suggests investors believe in short-term upside potential.The maximum pain level for Ethereum is $4,400. A price hold above this level could bolster market confidence for the weekend. However, a drop below $4,300 could increase the likelihood of a short-term correction.Liquidity decreases and volatility increasesLarge-scale option expirations can cause sudden directional changes in the spot market. This is because many investors are forced to close or rebalance their positions after expiration. This, in turn, increases price volatility with high volumes of transactions on both the buy and sell sides.Glassnode's latest data reveals that Bitcoin is still trading above its short-term investor cost floor. While this suggests continued upward momentum, it also poses the risk of market overheating. According to analysts, it is critical for the price to maintain the $118,000 support level; otherwise, liquidations in leveraged positions may occur.On the Ethereum side, the increase in open interest indicates that institutional and individual investors are reshaping their market expectations. This makes determining the direction in the short term even more difficult.With the expiration of a total of $5.6 billion in options, the price of both Bitcoin and Ethereum may experience short-term sharp price movements. Historically, the market has experienced high volatility for several days following such large expiration periods. Experts predict that Bitcoin could rally back to $120,000 and above if it manages to hold above $118,000, while Ethereum has the potential to rally toward $4,750 as long as it stays above $4,400. However, a breakdown of these support levels could see further selling pressure in the market throughout the weekend.
3x Leveraged ETFs for XRP, SOL, ETH, and Bitcoin Are Coming
The crypto market is heating up again. This time, GraniteShares is taking the stage. The US-based investment company has launched a plan for 3x leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for XRP, Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. This means investors will now be able to take leveraged positions on both upside and downside of these major crypto assets with up to three times the leverage. 3x leveraged ETFs are coming for four cryptocurrenciesUS-based investment company GraniteShares is taking a new step to whet the appetite of crypto investors. The company has applied to offer 3x leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on XRP, Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. These products will be designed for both long (bullish) and short (bearish) positions.GraniteShares already offers similar leveraged products for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. However, the new application promises investors much higher returns (and, of course, risk) by offering up to 3x leveraged trading, particularly for XRP. Interest in XRP ETFs ContinuesIn recent months, 2X leveraged XRP ETFs have gained significant popularity among investors. GraniteShares aims to take this trend a step further. The company's planned 3x version is designed for risk-averse investors looking to maximize price fluctuations.However, this move comes at a time when the overall outlook for the crypto market is pessimistic. The XRP price has fallen below $2.90, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are also in the red. This has dampened enthusiasm for ETF applications in the short term.Approval Process Stalled by Government ShutdownThe U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has temporarily suspended review of new ETF applications due to the federal government shutdown. This has led to the indefinite postponement of approval for many altcoin products, including XRP ETFs.Nevertheless, GraniteShares' persistence is noteworthy. The company was one of the first institutions to champion crypto ETFs in the past. This move could create a leadership opportunity in the "high risk, high return" segment.Leading XRP lawyer Bill Morgan responded to GraniteShares's application with humor: "I will continue to panic-buy XRP in the face of this overwhelming demand for an XRP ETF," he said. Morgan also emphasized that the application demonstrates that XRP remains among the top four cryptocurrencies, alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.GraniteShares's move signals continued interest in XRP from institutional investors, even as the market declines. Despite regulatory uncertainty and price weakness, leveraged ETF offerings have brought XRP back into the headlines.The market's calm comes amidst a growing influence of traditional finance (TradFi). However, if these 3X leveraged products are approved, a renewed surge of volatility and renewed retail investor interest is expected in the crypto market.In short, if GraniteShares's move is approved, it could usher in a new era for risk-averse investors—a bold step bridging the gap between crypto and traditional finance.
Grayscale Adds Staking Feature to US Ethereum ETFs
Digital asset management giant Grayscale has launched staking for its spot Ethereum ETFs in the US. According to the company, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETH) now offer investors the opportunity to earn income not only from Ether price movements but also from staking rewards.With this move, ETHE and ETH became the first spot crypto ETFs to trade on US exchanges to enable staking. Grayscale also launched staking for Solana Trust (GSOL). While GSOL is still a closed-end investment vehicle, the company has filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to convert this product into an ETF.Grayscale stated that the staking service will be operated "passively" through professional custodians and validator partners. This will contribute to network security and validation processes while also creating long-term return potential for investors. Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg said in a statement, “Enabling staking in our spot Ethereum and Solana funds reflects Grayscale’s innovative approach. As the world’s largest provider of digital asset-focused ETFs, we aim to deliver tangible value to our investors through new opportunities like staking.”Crypto ETFs Gain Momentum in the USWith this development, Grayscale has achieved a significant first in the US spot crypto ETF space. Previously, in July, REX-Osprey launched its Solana-based staking ETF under the Investment Company Act of 1940. However, this product was not considered under the 1933 Act, which is generally the basis for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Therefore, Grayscale’s Ethereum ETFs become the first spot crypto ETFs in the US to integrate staking under the 1933 Act.Furthermore, Grayscale’s Solana product, GSOL, is expected to be one of the first spot Solana ETFs to include staking if approved. The company plans to expand staking to its other products as the digital asset ecosystem develops.This move coincides with the SEC approving general listing standards for crypto ETFs. However, the ongoing US government shutdown may further delay staking approvals, particularly for Ethereum ETFs.The price of Ethereum (ETH) rose around 1 percent in the last 24 hours to trade around $4,580, while Solana (SOL) rose 0.5 percent to $233. Recent data on institutional funds indicates that increasing institutional demand for Ethereum and Solana products is supporting this rise.
$4.3 Billion in Options Expiration on Bitcoin and Ethereum: What Awaits the Markets?
The cryptocurrency market is passing a critical juncture on the last day of the week. A total of $4.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts will expire today. This volume has the potential to both increase price volatility and cause investors to reconsider their positions.According to options data, $3.36 billion of the expiring contracts belong to Bitcoin. Ethereum accounts for $974 million in volume. According to information from the Deribit exchange, the "maximum pain" level for Bitcoin is $115,000. This level is known as the point at which the most options contracts become worthless, and market participants are closely monitoring the possibility of a price pullback to this level. Bitcoin is currently trading above $119,000. While this strengthens the position of bullish investors, it also raises the possibility that options sellers will push the price down. A total of 27,962 Bitcoin options contracts are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 1.13. This ratio indicates that there are more put contracts than call contracts, and the market trend is slightly negative.The picture is slightly different for Ethereum. The total value of contracts expiring is $974 million. The maximum pain level in this market, which includes 216,210 contracts, is calculated as $4,200. The put-call ratio of 0.93 indicates a more neutral outlook compared to Bitcoin. However, analysts note that volatility on the Ethereum side has decreased significantly in recent weeks, and investor interest has shifted to Bitcoin.$21 billion was on the agenda last weekLast week, the record $21 billion monthly options expiration significantly shook the markets. While this week's figures remain well below that level, they still have the potential to create volatility. Bitcoin's price, in particular, being just above the critical $120,000 level, indicates that the price is vulnerable to sharp fluctuations in the short term. Options analytics platform Greeks.live describes the current market environment as "extremely volatile and difficult to determine direction." According to analysts, intraday movements exceeding 3% are frequently observed, catching many investors off guard. It has become particularly common for short-term options contracts, which experienced 80% losses in the morning, to reverse course in the afternoon, leaving investors in the wrong position.Ethereum, on the other hand, is notably low in volatility. Consequently, many traders are aiming to capitalize on short-term sideways movements by selling ETH puts and buying Bitcoin calls at $120,000. This strategy is based on the expectation that the market will not make a significant breakout.In short, today's $4.3 billion options expiration will test Bitcoin's ability to sustain the $120,000 level. For Ethereum, the price is expected to remain relatively calm due to low volatility. However, it's important to remember that maximum pain levels for both assets can act as a "center of gravity" in the market.
Citigroup Revises Ethereum and Bitcoin Forecast
Global financial giant Citigroup has updated its year-end forecast for the cryptocurrency market. Driven by strong institutional demand and inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the bank revised its price target for Ether upwards, while making a small downward adjustment to its Bitcoin forecast.Citigroup Releases New Report on Bitcoin and EthereumAccording to Citigroup's new report, the year-end price target for Ether has been raised from $4,300 to $4,500. The bank stated that this increase was driven by increasing institutional demand, particularly through spot ETFs, and strong inflows from digital asset treasuries. This development demonstrates that confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem and liquidity inflows remain vibrant.In contrast, the revision for Bitcoin paints a relatively more cautious picture. Citigroup lowered its year-end price forecast for Bitcoin from $135,000 to $133,000. Bank analysts pointed to the strengthening dollar index and recent weakening gold prices as the reasons for this downward correction. It was stated that these two factors could limit investors' risk appetite.However, we are seeing Bitcoin moving in the opposite direction of Citigroup's prediction. Market data shows that Bitcoin is holding above $118,000, and trading volumes have increased by 32% to over $77 billion. While this outlook indicates continued interest in the market, analysts are debating whether the strong resistance level at $124,000 can be broken. The Latest on the Bitcoin RallySpot Bitcoin ETFs are the primary driver of this rally. Exceeding $150 billion in assets under management and daily inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars are creating a supply-squeeze effect in the market. For example, $741 million inflows were recorded into ETFs on September 11th. Such flows continue to support the Bitcoin price. However, it is emphasized that if inflows slow, the upside potential could be limited.On the macroeconomic front, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision is the focus of markets. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the meeting on October 29th. Lower interest rates generally lead to a weakening of the dollar and increased demand for risky assets. Therefore, many analysts believe the Fed's policy could play a critical role in Bitcoin prices.Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that large investors (whales) continue their purchases. A single wallet was recorded to have accumulated approximately 1,721 BTC (approximately $196 million) in September. Long-term investors are reported to control 67% of the total supply. This trend could reduce market liquidity and push prices higher. However, whales' focus on profit-taking risks increasing volatility, as was the case during the 2021 peak. Ultimately, Citigroup's report suggests a stronger outlook for Ethereum driven by institutional investor interest, while cautious optimism prevails for Bitcoin. For the rest of the year, the Fed's interest rate action, whether ETF inflows slow down, and whale activity will be key factors in determining the crypto market's direction.
SEC Greenlights Crypto: State Trusts Grant Custody Authority
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made a significant decision regarding digital assets. In a no-action letter, the agency announced that investment advisors can use state-licensed trust companies as "qualified custodians." This decision paves the way for institutional investors to store crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum more securely and legally. A Solution to Long-Term UncertaintyFor years, one of the biggest challenges for investment advisors has been the uncertainty surrounding which institutions can hold digital assets. Traditional regulations have deemed only large federal banks and certain large corporations authorized for custody. The SEC's new approach allows state-licensed trust companies to offer the same custody services, provided they meet strict oversight and security requirements.This step allows advisors under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 to hold crypto assets under regulated conditions, just as they do with cash and securities. However, companies must adhere to strict requirements such as cold storage, independent auditing, cybersecurity measures, and the separation of client assets from company funds.Initial Industry ReactionsBloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart described the decision as "a textbook example of the clarity expected for the digital asset space." According to Seyffart, the industry has long been demanding this recognition. In the US, banks were indirectly pressured to limit their services to crypto companies in recent years during a process known as "Operation Choke Point 2.0." This new decision demonstrates a softening of the regulator's approach and their intention to integrate crypto into the financial system in more structured ways.Some states, such as Wyoming, had already pioneered similar regulations for crypto assets years ago. Senator Cynthia Lummis welcomed the SEC's move in a social media post, saying, "Wyoming was a pioneer in digital asset oversight in 2020. It's gratifying that the SEC has recognized this approach at this point." New Opportunity for Bitcoin and EthereumThe decision could facilitate institutional investors' access to cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's positioning as "digital gold," in particular, is further strengthened by this development. Considering that gold is already a standard asset class in regulated funds, a similar inclusion of Bitcoin and Ethereum in portfolios seems more likely.Once the "custodial uncertainty," one of the biggest obstacles for institutions, is eliminated, investment funds and advisors are expected to be more comfortable investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This could, in the long run, contribute to accelerating ETF approvals, diversifying institutional strategies, and increasing market confidence.The SEC emphasized that the published letter is not a formal change in the law, but merely reflects the agency's current "enforcement position." Therefore, the decision is subject to revision if circumstances change in the future. Investment advisors are required to disclose risks to their clients and confirm annually that their custodian is authorized.
SEC Approval: BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and XLM Officially Included
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially approved the Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF (NCIQ), launched by Hashdex. Thanks to the new regulation, the fund will not only offer Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) but will also be able to add leading altcoins such as XRP, Solana (SOL), and Stellar (XLM) to its portfolio. This decision is seen as a significant milestone in diversifying regulated crypto investment instruments.Hashdex's ETF was established in Delaware, and last week, a new trust agreement, revised for the third time, entered into force. This brings the fund into compliance with Nasdaq's current listing standards. With the SEC approval, the fund's fiscal year structure remains unchanged, but it has gained official authorization to add altcoins such as XRP, SOL, and XLM.New Rules Bring Expedited ApprovalThe SEC recently adopted new rules that expedite the listing process for crypto ETFs. While it could previously take up to 270 days for an ETF to receive approval, the new standards have reduced this timeframe to 75 days. This eliminates the need for individual reviews during the application process. Now, funds that meet certain requirements can launch directly to the market much sooner.Canary Capital Group founder Steven McClurg stated that there have already been approximately a dozen applications filed with the SEC, with more in the pipeline, adding, "We'll see a wave of launches in the last quarter of this year." DGIM Law's Jonathan Groth also stated that the crypto ETF market could experience a "boom period" starting in October.The fund's new allocation is noteworthy.The updated fund allocation maintains a strong emphasis on BTC and ETH, allocating 6.93% to XRP, 4.11% to Solana, and 0.33% to Stellar. Projects such as Cardano (1.22%), Chainlink (0.50%), and Uniswap (0.14%) are also included in the portfolio in small percentages. This makes the Hashdex ETF one of the first funds to officially include Stellar (XLM). Crypto market expert Nate Geraci, in a social media post, described the SEC's approval as "a significant development that paves the way for diversification in crypto investment." While the majority of users welcomed the decision, some commentators emphasized that adding altcoins to ETFs would foster broader market acceptance.The SEC's new standards allow funds to be approved quickly if they meet certain conditions. For example, the listed crypto asset must have at least six months of CFTC-regulated futures contracts or another ETF must directly hold 40% of that asset. This has enabled projects like XRP, SOL, and XLM to quickly become part of the regulated investment vehicle.Grayscale also took action shortly after the SEC's announcement, converting its private fund into a publicly traded product, the CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF. This ETF includes BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA. Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg stated that the swift action stemmed from "the goal of providing greater regulatory clarity and investor access."Crypto market analysts expect ETFs focused on XRP and Solana to launch in October. However, the real question is whether investors will genuinely show interest in these altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SEC's recent decision has been noted as one of the most significant steps in the opening of altcoins to traditional markets.
Nasdaq-Listed Chinese Company to Buy $1 Billion in BTC, ETH, and BNB
Jiuzi Holdings Inc. (JZXN), a Nasdaq-listed China-based electric vehicle retailer, attracted attention with its announcement on Wednesday. The company announced that it will invest up to $1 billion of its cash reserves in select cryptocurrencies under its new "Crypto Asset Investment Policy," approved by its board of directors.The Chinese company focuses on three cryptocurrenciesIn the first phase of the policy, investments will be limited to Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Binance Coin (BNB). The company's move is considered a strategic step aimed at long-term value preservation and hedging, rather than a speculative entry into the crypto market. Management also announced that the assets will not be held in-house but will instead be secured through professional custodians.Jiuzi's decision stems from the addition of a crypto industry veteran to the team. Doug Buerger, who recently took over as the company's chief operating officer (COO), will take a leading role in the new policy. Buerger stated, “Our goal is not to engage in short-term trading. We view crypto assets as long-term stores of value and hedges against macroeconomic uncertainties.”A “Crypto Asset Risk Committee” has also been established to implement the policy. This committee, led by CFO Huijie Gao, will oversee the progress of investments within the established framework and regularly report to the board of directors.Following the announcement, Jiuzi Holdings shares surged. JZXN shares, traded on Nasdaq, gained over 55% in pre-market trading. This investor response was driven by the company's aggressive growth strategy and its willingness to use its cash reserves more effectively. CEO Tao Li described the new policy as “a proactive step to protect and enhance long-term shareholder value.” According to Li, this initiative will not only diversify the company's financial strength but also pave the way for an innovative model that integrates traditional business practices with the crypto ecosystem. Recently, the number of US-listed companies turning to crypto investments has been increasing. The trend, initiated by MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases, is leading to an increasing number of companies holding crypto assets.
