A new report published by VanEck suggests that the recent decline in Bitcoin mining activity could herald a positive period for the market. The report, titled “Mid-December 2025 ChainCheck,” published on Monday, emphasizes that historical data shows a more frequent positive return in Bitcoin price following declines in mining power. VanEck analysts, in their analysis since 2014, noted that Bitcoin has seen a 65% positive return in the 90-day period following periods when the network's total processing power (hashrate) decreased. In contrast, this rate remained at 54% during periods when the hashrate increased. The report describes this as a "counter-signal," suggesting that miners giving up and withdrawing from the network under financial pressure can create a positive picture for long-term investors. VanEck, noting the re-emergence of this historical pattern, reported that the total hashrate of the Bitcoin network declined by approximately 4 percent in the month leading up to December 15th. This drop was the sharpest monthly decline since April 2024. According to the report, during periods when pressure on the hashrate persists for longer, future returns tend to occur not only more frequently but also at higher rates. For miners, the situation is becoming increasingly difficult. The recent volatility in the Bitcoin price has also dragged down mining profitability. According to VanEck data, the break-even electricity cost for a mid-range mining device has dropped significantly. For example, for a device like the Antminer S19 XP, this level fell from approximately $0.12 per kilowatt-hour at the end of 2024 to around $0.077 in mid-December 2025. Break-even electricity cost represents the highest energy price at which a miner can operate without incurring losses. The decline in this indicator suggests that an environment has emerged where only low-cost operators can survive.
Bitcoin price fluctuates
The Bitcoin price has been volatile in recent weeks. After reaching a peak of $126,080 in November, the cryptocurrency fell to approximately $81,000 on November 21st. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is trading around $87,779, down 1 percent in the last 24 hours.
According to the report, long-term institutional buyers stepped in during this period and began to balance the selling pressure. In particular, institutional entities called digital asset treasuries (DATs) viewed price pullbacks as buying opportunities. It was stated that these institutions purchased approximately 42,000 BTC between mid-November and mid-December, which corresponds to a 4 percent increase on a monthly basis. Thus, the total Bitcoin holdings of DATs reached approximately 1.09 million BTC.
This accumulation process stands out as the strongest monthly increase since the purchase of over 128,000 BTC seen between mid-July and mid-August 2025. VanEck predicts that many digital asset treasuries may change their strategy in the coming period and may prefer to sell preferred shares instead of issuing shares to finance Bitcoin purchases.
