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Browse all Politics related articles and news. The latest news, analysis, and insights on Politics.
Bitcoin Slips Slightly Ahead of Fed Minutes
The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June 16-17 meeting today, Wednesday, at 2:00 p.m. ET. For those expecting a rate hike in September, the text may offer less than they hope.Chair Kevin Warsh did not share his own rate projection during this period. The post-meeting statement was only 130 words long, and forward guidance was removed entirely. That leaves the minutes as the only detailed record available on the debate inside the committee.A committee split between hawks and dovesThe FOMC held rates steady at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. It was the fourth consecutive hold. Nine of the 18 members projected at least one rate hike for 2026, while Warsh did not put forward his own forecast.The committee held this meeting before the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June jobs report. The report showed only 57,000 new jobs, marking the weakest reading in four months. Any hawkish tone in the minutes may still reflect a labor market that looked strong at the time. The weaker picture emerged only days later.The CME FedWatch tool currently prices the probability of a September rate hike in the 50% to 55% range. Before the weak employment data, that probability stood at 66%. Warsh addressed the issue directly at his press conference. He said inflation had remained above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years and that this was a burden for the American people, while also adding that the recent past does not have to determine the future.Silence itself becomes the storySince taking office, Warsh has pushed for a simpler communication style. In his view, forward guidance makes the Fed more dependent on markets than on the data it is supposed to respond to.This preference makes Wednesday’s release unusually important, because there is no previous statement text to compare it with. Speaking at the Sintra forum in July, Warsh clarified his stance on inflation: investors should not expect the Fed under his leadership to become comfortable with inflation above 2%.Bitcoin feels the weight of rate uncertaintyCrypto markets are already reacting to this uncertainty. Bitcoin recently slipped to $61,766, losing close to 1%. Ethereum, XRP and Solana also fell between 1% and 2.3%. The sell-off is not driven by rate uncertainty alone. WTI crude futures rose more than 2% to $72.27, while the dollar index held above the 101 level. A stronger dollar and rising inflation expectations are pushing investors toward safer assets such as bonds, while drawing them away from riskier instruments like Bitcoin.If the minutes show how close the hawkish wing came to supporting a rate hike in June, this cautious mood in the crypto market may continue. Signals on the September rate decision will matter not only for bond and currency markets, but also for Bitcoin investors.A Fed led by a chair who prefers silence may leave both stock and crypto investors waiting for real clarity even after Wednesday.
Trump Defends Crypto Earnings: “There Is Nothing Wrong With It”
U.S. President Donald Trump responded to criticism over the high revenues his family earned from the cryptocurrency industry. In an interview with CNBC at the White House, Trump said there was “nothing wrong” with the money made from crypto investments.The debate grew after the U.S. Office of Government Ethics published its annual financial disclosure report. The report, made available on June 30, 2026, includes Trump’s financial disclosures for 2025.According to the disclosures, revenues from crypto ventures linked to Trump’s family exceeded $1.4 billion. This made Trump the largest crypto earner in U.S. politics.Trump’s crypto defenseDuring the CNBC interview, Trump was asked whether he knew about the crypto ventures in question. He responded, “I could know about it. I didn’t.”Trump also argued that there was nothing illegal about the business. According to him, the main goal is to make the U.S. a leader in the cryptocurrency sector.The statement reignited a long-running conflict-of-interest debate in Washington. Before taking office, Trump handed day-to-day control of his businesses to his two eldest sons. However, he did not divest his assets.For this reason, criticism is not focused only on the size of the revenues. The main debate revolves around how clearly the line has been drawn between the presidency and family businesses.Most of the revenue came from crypto projectsAccording to the financial disclosure, Trump’s crypto-linked revenues were concentrated in three main categories. The first was roughly $636 million from a memecoin venture associated with his name. The token was launched just before Trump’s return to office.The second major category came from World Liberty Financial. Around $594 million in revenue was reported from the crypto company, which Trump co-founded with his sons.The third category came from a stablecoin-linked venture. The disclosures showed that revenue from this business was around $197 million.According to Reuters, Trump had previously said he was not directly involved in his financial affairs. He stated that there were funds managing his money and that many people had profited because markets had risen.Revenue debate grows as the market weakensThe scale of Trump’s crypto earnings drew more attention at a time when the market was under pressure. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from the record level above $126,000 it reached in October. The sector also spent the first half of the year under pressure.This picture made the gap between investor losses and revenues from politically linked crypto projects more visible. Some market commentators argue that memecoin revenues in particular are tied to political brand power.That is exactly where the criticism is centered. Trump supporters believe the president is trying to give the U.S. a competitive advantage by supporting the crypto sector. Opponents, however, say the process blurs the line between public office and private profit.Regulation agenda may be affectedThe Trump administration has followed a policy line that is more favorable toward the cryptocurrency industry. This approach has long been welcomed by industry representatives.However, the debate took on a different dimension after the financial disclosure. As the U.S. moves toward crypto regulation, the president’s high earnings from projects linked to his family could increase political pressure.Democrats may bring the ethical dimension of these revenues more forcefully onto the agenda. For Republicans, the issue creates a more delicate balance. On one hand, they want to preserve close ties with the crypto industry. On the other, growing criticism over retail investor losses is putting pressure on the administration.Trump, however, does not appear to be backing down. In his remarks, he defended the revenues as legal and emphasized the goal of U.S. leadership in crypto.For this reason, the debate does not seem likely to fade in the short term. The financial disclosure did more than show the crypto revenues of the Trump family. It also revealed that crypto, politics and ethics debates in the U.S. are now part of the same file.
Weak U.S. Jobs Data Triggers Bitcoin Dip-Buying
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report came in well below market expectations in July, paving the way for a short-term relief bounce in Bitcoin. According to the data, released one day earlier due to the July 4 holiday, the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June. Markets had expected an increase of 114,000, while the previous month’s figure stood at 172,000. The unemployment rate was also recorded at 4.2%, instead of the expected 4.3%.Bitcoin was trading around $61,700 when the data was released. According to TradingView data, the cryptocurrency briefly moved higher after the announcement and approached the $62,000 mark, before fluctuating within that range for the rest of the day. The limited price reaction suggests that the market interpreted the weak employment data as a development that could increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, but did not price it in with aggressive buying. Kyle Rodda of Capital.com described the nonfarm payrolls report as the most critical data release of the week. According to Rodda, markets had lowered the probability of a rate hike this month from 33% at the beginning of the week to 28%; weak employment figures could reinforce this expectation. It is also worth noting that the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in June for the fourth consecutive time, while rate cut expectations were pushed back to 2027 due to the hawkish stance of new Chair Kevin Warsh.Bitcoin spent most of the week under pressureBefore the employment data, Bitcoin had already been through a difficult week. The cryptocurrency fell to a 21-month low during the week, dropping to $57,800. According to Bitfinex analysts, this marked the fourth time in the cycle that a decline in bond yields and a drop in Bitcoin’s price occurred at the same time; Bitcoin continued to pull back even as the S&P 500 closed the quarter at a record high.Two main groups are behind the selling pressure. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, marking their worst month since their launch in January 2024. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for $3.55 billion in outflows. In addition, Strategy’s board approved the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin on June 29 to build dollar reserves and meet liabilities. The company’s stock is now trading roughly 30% below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.Despite this, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted that long-term investors have started accumulating again. According to Beamish, buying appetite is spreading across a wide range of participants, from small wallets to entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. However, for the first time during this downturn, the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded the amount held in profit; approximately 10.83 million BTC is currently being held below its cost basis.A similar picture is emerging on the Ethereum sideEthereum, meanwhile, recovered from its low near $1,500 and climbed into the $1,600-$1,620 range. Simon-Peter Massabni of XS.com described this move not as a confirmed reversal, but as buying from a technical bottom. Spot ETH funds have seen net outflows for seven consecutive weeks, with total outflows reaching $1.18 billion during this period.In the coming days, the market’s main focus will be how much the weak employment data influences the Fed’s rate decision. For now, whether Bitcoin can break above the $62,000 resistance level on a sustained basis appears to depend on both macro data and the direction of ETF flows.
Trump’s Crypto Wallet Revealed: Eight Different Coins From Bitcoin to LINK
According to the annual financial disclosure report published on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s income included hundreds of millions of dollars earned through his family’s crypto company World Liberty Financial, as well as thousands of dollars in investments in companies such as Coinbase and Strategy. The 927-page report, prepared by the Office of Government Ethics, covers a wide investment portfolio ranging from Domino’s Pizza and Costco to Victoria’s Secret, Lockheed Martin and major banks such as JPMorgan.The most striking item in the report was the income generated from World Liberty Financial, which came to light at a time when Congress is debating a comprehensive bill aimed at regulating the crypto sector. Democrats are demanding that an ethics clause be added to the bill, barring the president, vice president, members of Congress and other federal officials from certain cryptocurrency transactions in exchange for supporting the legislation.According to the disclosure, Trump earned more than $65.6 million from the sale of his stake in WLF Holdco and $236.25 million from distributed proceeds from World Liberty Financial’s token sales. The report also listed Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDC, LINK, AAVE, ENA, MOVE and ONDO holdings kept in cold wallets linked to World Liberty Financial, along with roughly $1.8 million in Ethereum staking rewards.Trump’s portfolio also includes an investment of up to $100,000 in crypto exchange Coinbase, as well as multiple investments in Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy.Vance’s Disclosure Was Much SimplerThe financial disclosure of Vice President JD Vance, released on the same day, was far shorter at just 17 pages. Vance reported holding up to $500,000 in Bitcoin.The Trump administration’s close ties to the crypto sector are once again becoming a point of debate at a time when the regulatory process is shaping a law that directly covers the products of these companies. The fact that World Liberty Financial was founded by the president’s own family and that Trump directly earned income from the company stands out as one of the factors strengthening conflict-of-interest claims.Crypto Lobby’s Rise in WashingtonThis disclosure also highlights how much the crypto sector’s influence in U.S. politics has grown over the past few years. During the 2024 election cycle, crypto companies and investors channeled hundreds of millions of dollars into election campaigns through super PACs, turning the industry into one of the most powerful lobbying groups in Congress.They have also begun to see returns on that investment. The market structure bill being debated in the Senate aims to clarify which regulatory agency will oversee digital assets and to provide exchanges with a more predictable framework.However, the fact that Trump’s own family directly earns income from a crypto company is raising more questions about the neutrality of the bill. World Liberty Financial was founded in late 2024 by a group that included Trump’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., and quickly raised hundreds of millions of dollars through token sales. The company’s stablecoin, USD1, also drew attention after it began being used in transactions involving some Middle Eastern investment funds.Ethics experts have long argued that it is unprecedented for a sitting president to earn income from the private sector on this scale. Traditionally, presidents have transferred their assets into blind trusts to avoid conflicts of interest. The Trump administration has been criticized for not adopting this practice, and his stake in World Liberty Financial has become one of the clearest examples of that debate.
5 Key Crypto Developments of the Week: MiCA, U.S. Data and the Altcoin Calendar
As July begins, the crypto market is focused on five separate themes: Europe’s MiCA regulation, Robinhood’s new product launch, macro data from the U.S. and Europe, DeFi governance votes and the token unlock calendar. The most critical development is taking place in Europe. The transition period for the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, known as MiCA, ends on July 1.MiCA becomes a concern for investors in EuropeBinance has withdrawn its MiCA license application in Greece and is now seeking approval from another EU country. This move has temporarily left the world’s largest exchange without a license in the EU. In a statement on the matter, Binance informed its users that it would no longer be able to accept new registrations and that some services would be restricted.Coinbase and OKX, meanwhile, moved quickly. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced a 5 percent transfer bonus valid until July 13 for users in Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom. OKX also launched one of the largest welcome campaigns in the company’s history, offering eligible users in the European Economic Area investment matching of up to 8 percent.In an email sent to users, Binance said their assets were safe and would remain accessible at all times. The company says its goals in Europe have not changed and that it is confident it will obtain a MiCA license in the coming months. However, the number of users lost during this period also raises the question of how many of them will return once the license is secured.Robinhood announcementMiCA is not the only item on the agenda. Robinhood will announce new products at its “The World is Flat” event on July 1, where CEO Vlad Tenev is expected to appear alongside Johann Kerbrat, the company’s general manager of crypto. On July 2, tokenization firm Securitize will also begin trading on the NYSE following its SPAC merger.Macroeconomic developmentsThe macro calendar will also be busy this week. On June 30, the U.S. House Price Index and JOLTs job openings data will be released. Market expectations for JOLTs stand at 7.28 million, compared with the previous reading of 7.618 million.On July 1, the eurozone’s preliminary inflation data for June will be published, with expectations at 3 percent, down from the previous 3.2 percent. On the same day, markets will follow U.S. ADP employment data, the ISM manufacturing PMI and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the European Central Bank forum.The most important data of the week will arrive on July 2, when nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims will all be released on the same day. Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to come in at 114,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent. The previous nonfarm payrolls figure was 172,000, so the expected decline is quite sharp.What is happening in the altcoin market?The DeFi agenda is also far from quiet. Aave DAO has opened voting on a proposal to upgrade the Pendle PT risk oracle infrastructure to an automated system; the vote closes on June 30. The Arbitrum community is discussing a proposal to halt new investment activities by Arbitrum Gaming Ventures and limit the initiative to its existing portfolio, with excess capital planned to be returned to the treasury.Aavegotchi has also put forward a proposal to transfer the protocol’s intellectual property from Pixelcraft Studios to the AavegotchiDAO Foundation. The Redbelly Network community is evaluating a proposal to suspend the activities of its DAO until the ecosystem becomes more mature.On the token unlock calendar, EigenCloud will release 2.91 percent of its circulating supply into the market, worth approximately $8.44 million. MemeCore will unlock 0.56 percent of its supply, valued at $36.25 million. There are no scheduled token launches for this week.On the conference calendar, the Global Blockchain Show 2026 will take place in Riyadh on June 29-30, while Stablecoins Unblocked will be held in London on July 1.
Critical U.S. Data Released: How Were Bitcoin and Altcoins Affected?
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation gauge most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 3.4% year-over-year in May. The data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) came in line with market expectations, but the figure marked the highest level since October 2023. Headline PCE reached 4.1% on an annual basis.The core index, which excludes food and energy prices, is one of the key indicators the Fed monitors when making interest rate decisions. The fact that the May reading increased compared with April could strengthen the central bank’s message that its “job is not done yet” on inflation.What changed in income and spending?Personal income increased by 0.7% month-over-month in May, rising by $181.6 billion. Disposable personal income, which refers to income after taxes, also rose by 0.7%, increasing by $164.9 billion. The increase was mainly driven by higher farm proprietors’ income and wage payments.On the consumption side, personal spending increased by 0.7% month-over-month to $156.1 billion, while the market had expected a 0.6% rise. The April figure was also revised down from 0.5% to 0.4%. Of the increase, $94.3 billion came from services spending, while $61.8 billion came from goods spending. Real PCE, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.3% on a monthly basis.Personal savings stood at $704.2 billion in May, while the personal saving rate was 3% of disposable income. Total personal outlays increased by $159.9 billion. On a monthly basis, headline PCE rose 0.4%, while core PCE increased by 0.3%.Why does this matter for Bitcoin?Bitcoin (BTC) continues to decline under pressure from the Fed’s hawkish tone, consecutive outflows from spot ETFs, thinner market liquidity during the summer period and quarterly options expiries set to end on June 30. Although expectations have strengthened that a U.S.-Iran agreement could lead to lasting peace in the Middle East, the inflation risk stemming from energy prices remains on the table.At its June meeting yesterday, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in line with expectations. While the central bank said it was prepared to act in either direction depending on inflation risks, hawkish signals from officials drew Wall Street’s attention. Some investors even began positioning for the possibility that the Fed could raise interest rates again this year after those signals.The May PCE data, which matched expectations, did not create a surprise strong enough to change the short-term outlook. However, the fact that the core index climbed to its highest level since the fall of 2023 shows that the pace of disinflation has slowed. Markets will now focus on employment data ahead of the July meeting and next month’s PCE reading. On the crypto side, persistently high inflation remains one of the factors limiting risk appetite and fueling selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Today’s PCE Data and Tomorrow’s $10 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Take Center Stage
Bitcoin is heading into Friday’s $10.5 billion quarterly options expiry under pressure, with market attention now focused on Deribit’s positioning data.Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, shows its Bitcoin volatility index, DVOL, at 41.5%. The index measures Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility. That is far below the 90% peak recorded in February, but slightly above the lows seen in May.Jean-David Péquignot, Deribit’s head of commercial operations, said volatility is cheap compared with its own history, though it can no longer be described as “low-priced.”Cheap volatility means investors expect more limited Bitcoin price movements compared with the past year. It also makes options contracts used for hedging against price swings less expensive. Since volatility tends to revert to its mean, investors often turn to options when they believe volatility has become cheap relative to historical levels.According to Péquignot, implied volatility on call options is noticeably cheaper than on put options, making bullish call spread strategies more attractive. He said call spreads still look favorable for those positioning for a recovery after the quarterly reset, and they now look better from a volatility perspective as well. That is because call spread buyers are purchasing the cheaper side of the volatility curve, which is currently skewed in the opposite direction.Several factors could push volatility higher in the near term. The most important one is Friday’s options expiry, which Péquignot described as “one of the most important liquidity events in the annual calendar.”Put option buyers from recent months are currently in profit, while call buyers are seeing their positions move toward expiration without value. Péquignot said that with Bitcoin’s spot price around $64,000, the June 26 expiry book is clearly leaning toward profitable put positions and worthless call positions. Call buyers who chased strikes above $80,000 are now sitting on embedded losses. Another topic of debate ahead of the expiry is the “maximum pain” theory. According to this theory, options sellers tend to push the spot price toward the level where options buyers suffer the largest losses, causing as many contracts as possible to expire worthless. For this expiry, that level is calculated at $72,000, well above Bitcoin’s current price. The theory gained popularity during several expiries in 2020 and 2021, when the price appeared to move closer to those levels, but a similar “pinning” effect has not been clearly observed recently.Focus Turns to PCESignals from outside the Bitcoin market are also being watched closely. Sharp declines in Alphabet (GOOG) and SpaceX (SPCX) shares, combined with weakness in Asian equity markets, could add further pressure on Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency’s tendency to move in line with technology stocks is already a familiar market pattern.The core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is also on the agenda for Thursday. The data is expected to show the strongest price pressure since May 2024. Such a result could trigger volatility across a wide range of assets, from Treasury bonds to cryptocurrencies.
Fed’s Hawkish Stance Shakes Crypto Market as $111 Million Flows Out
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, but delivered a more hawkish message than expected. The impact was immediate: Bitcoin declined for a third consecutive day, institutional money began flowing out of exchange-traded funds, and the relief rally triggered in equities by the peace agreement with Iran failed to reach the crypto market.Fed Decision and Warsh’s First TestThe Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted on Wednesday to keep its policy rate unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range. Markets had already priced in the decision; the surprise came elsewhere.The committee raised its inflation forecasts and slowed the projected pace of interest rate cuts compared with its March outlook. Nine of the 18 members even raised the possibility of a rate hike this year. The median projection placed the policy rate at 3.8% by the end of 2026, a significant increase from the 3.4% forecast in March.Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the decision carried unusual weight despite being widely expected because it marked Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair. Mena noted that the real signal came from the updated projections, which showed that policymakers remained concerned about inflation despite easing geopolitical tensions and falling energy prices.The meeting also provided the first clues about Warsh’s communication style. Unlike statements issued during the Jerome Powell era, the document was kept notably brief and excluded the forward-guidance language Powell used throughout his tenure. Warsh said the format was designed to present “the facts” rather than steer market expectations.Broad-Based Selling Hits the MarketThe crypto market’s reaction was swift and widespread. Bitcoin slipped below the $64,000 level following the decision and traded between $63,800 and $63,900. That range corresponds to the midpoint of the rally it had built over the previous 11 days. Ethereum declined by between 3% and 3.6%, falling as low as $1,733. XRP dropped nearly 4% to $1.17, while Solana lost between 3% and 3.6% and traded at around $71.Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, the week’s standout performer, recorded the sharpest decline. After reaching an all-time high the previous day, HYPE fell nearly 7% to the $69-$72 range. The token nevertheless remains up by around 28% on a weekly basis. Tron was the only major cryptocurrency to finish the session in positive territory.The GMCI 30 Index, which tracks the 30 largest cryptocurrencies, declined by 2.6%, bringing its year-to-date loss close to 36%. Selling pressure extended beyond crypto; gold fell by 2.2%, while silver declined by nearly 4%.Iran Agreement Lifted Stocks, but Not CryptoAnother major development announced on the same day directed market attention elsewhere. US President Donald Trump signed an interim agreement that ended the war with Iran and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.Equity markets welcomed the news. S&P 500 futures rose by 0.9%, while Nasdaq futures gained 1.5%. Brent crude fell toward $78.Crypto assets failed to benefit from the relief. The divergence suggests that the market is currently responding more strongly to the Fed’s policy stance than to geopolitical developments.ETF Outflows Signal Waning Institutional DemandThe institutional picture became even clearer. US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs returned to net outflows on Wednesday. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin funds recorded $82 million in net withdrawals, while Ethereum funds lost $29 million.The outflows were broad-based. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $31 million in withdrawals, while ARKB lost $44 million. Every Ethereum ETF ended the day with net outflows.The move suggests that institutional buying, which helped fuel the recovery rally in recent weeks, has paused for now. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has remained around $2.26 trillion since Tuesday’s close, while expectations for interest rate cuts, one of the rally’s main drivers, have largely faded.Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, said Bitcoin is likely to remain confined to a $60,000-$70,000 range in the coming weeks unless a major catalyst emerges. According to O’Shea, developments such as the signing of the CLARITY Act, which would regulate the structure of the crypto market, or a further easing of tensions between the US and Iran could provide the trigger needed to break that range.O’Shea also said that recent initial public offerings and artificial intelligence stocks have diverted attention away from the crypto market. However, he expects capital to return as institutional participation grows and regulatory rules become clearer.
Fed Interest Rate Decision Due Today: All Eyes on Warsh’s First Press Conference
Jerome Powell stepped down as Fed chair following the April meeting. The first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh concludes today. The Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh’s press conference half an hour later.Data from the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks market expectations, shows a 99.5% probability that rates will remain unchanged. No surprise is expected. The main issue is not the rate decision itself: the tightening cycle is officially over, the easing cycle has yet to begin, and uncertainty remains over where the Fed will head during this in-between period under Warsh.US inflation is at its highest level in three years. It also remains unclear when the economic effects of the tensions with Iran will fade. For this reason, attention is focused less on the interest rate decision and more on what Warsh will say during the press conference.Warsh is no stranger to the Fed. He was appointed by George W. Bush in 2006, becoming the youngest Fed governor at the time at just 35 years old. He remained in the role until 2011, serving through the height of the 2008 global financial crisis.During the crisis, Warsh acted as the Fed’s liaison with Wall Street and played a role in the negotiations that helped Morgan Stanley survive. He left the Fed in 2011 after criticizing its balance sheet expansion policies. In the years that followed, he became one of the central bank’s most outspoken external critics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.His appointment, made by the Trump administration, was confirmed by the Senate in an unusually partisan 54-45 vote and became official in May.The question now is whether Warsh will adopt a dovish tone and lay the groundwork for rate cuts by highlighting falling oil prices and AI-driven disinflation, or stick to the scenario already priced in by markets. He has previously criticized the Fed for “communicating too much” with markets, and he is also likely to face questions on that issue during the press conference.The dot plot will be the main area to watch. In the most recent projections released in March, seven officials expected no rate cuts in 2026. Among the others, seven projected a 25-basis-point cut, two expected 50 basis points, two forecast 75 basis points, and one anticipated 100 basis points of easing.Interest rate futures are currently pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by December. A decline in this projection in the updated dot plot would be considered positive for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.What Is the Latest Situation in Crypto Markets?For now, there is little sign of nervousness in the market. Volatility linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum has completely reversed its early-month increase and fallen to its lowest level in two weeks. The US 10-year Treasury yield has also eased to 4.43% after climbing above 4.55% following the outbreak of the war in late February. This yield is widely regarded as a key benchmark for overall borrowing costs across the economy. When it declines, financial conditions ease and risk assets gain some breathing room.
US Congress Reaches Agreement on Fed CBDC Ban
US Senate and House leaders have reached an agreement to advance a sweeping housing bill that includes a ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Housing reform, which has remained before Congress for years, has now entered its final stage with a provision that directly concerns the cryptocurrency industry.Senator Tim Scott, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Representative French Hill and Representative Maxine Waters released an updated version of the “21st Century ROAD to Housing Act” on Tuesday. The text, jointly endorsed by all four lawmakers, indicates that an agreement has been reached across both chambers and between Republicans and Democrats. Such a four-way compromise is rare, particularly in a politically sensitive area such as housing policy.The legislative package aims to increase housing supply in the US and prevent institutional landlords from dominating the market. In recent years, large investment funds and corporate buyers have been accused of purchasing single-family homes in bulk and converting them into rental properties, contributing to rapidly rising home prices and rents. The bill seeks to curb this trend and make it easier to introduce measures that expand housing supply.To address objections in the House, lawmakers added a three-year sunset provision to a disaster relief program. This was one of the concessions that emerged during the final stages of negotiations. Reaching this point was far from easy, as reconciling a broad housing policy package between the two chambers typically requires months of negotiations and mutual concessions.Scott said the legislation was the result of years of work to lower costs, expand housing supply, reduce bureaucracy, protect taxpayers and help more Americans become homeowners. He stressed that it was now time to finalize the bill and deliver meaningful relief to the American public. Warren, Hill and Waters similarly highlighted the bipartisan nature of the legislation and its practical benefits for Americans.How Did the CBDC Ban Enter the Bill?The bill would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC, or any digital asset “substantially similar” to one, until the end of 2030. Although the provision may initially appear unrelated to housing policy, it reflects a familiar tactic in Washington: attaching unrelated policies to must-pass legislation that is considered highly likely to become law.According to earlier reporting by journalist Eleanor Terrett, pressure to add the provision came from House Republicans. Opposition to CBDCs has gained increasing support within the Republican Party in recent years. The movement is largely driven by concerns that a central bank-issued digital currency could threaten individual privacy and give the government excessive control over financial transactions.The Trump administration’s opposition to CBDCs is also well established. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated last month that CBDCs were “not on the table,” adding that the administration’s main focus was finalizing the digital asset-focused Clarity Act. His comments align with the administration’s broader crypto policy: opposition to CBDCs alongside greater openness toward privately issued digital assets and stablecoin regulation.Next StepsAccording to Politico, citing Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the updated bill will now proceed to an initial procedural vote in the Senate. The outcome will provide an important indication of how quickly the rest of the legislative process could move.If the bill passes the Senate, it will then move to the House. A vote is expected shortly after lawmakers return from recess around June 23. If the process is completed, the legislation will be sent to the president’s desk.Once signed into law, the bill would establish a multi-year framework covering both US housing policy and the country’s official position on central bank digital currencies.
Bank of Japan Enters Crypto Markets’ Radar This Week as July 2024 Scenario Comes Back Into Focus
Crypto investors usually watch Fed meetings closely. This week, however, the key decision may come from Tokyo.The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1% at its meeting on Tuesday. If it happens, this would mark Japan’s highest interest rate level since 1995. From a distance, it may look like an ordinary central bank decision; for markets, the picture is far more complicated.Yen shorts at record levelsAccording to CFTC data, leveraged funds’ speculative short positions on the yen climbed above 115,000 contracts in the week of June 9. This is the highest level seen since November 2017. These positions are essentially large-scale bets that the yen will continue to weaken.If the BOJ raises rates as expected and then signals a shift toward tighter monetary policy, the rapid closing of these short positions could quickly move to the top of the market agenda. Closing yen short positions would push the yen higher; that would directly threaten yen-funded carry trade positions.The logic of the carry trade is simple: investors borrow in low-yielding yen and invest in higher-yielding risk assets. For years, this strategy has been one of the mechanisms supporting the bull run in Wall Street and developed market bond markets.Is the July 2024 scenario back on the table?The current setup bears a striking resemblance to what happened last year. When the BOJ raised rates in July 2024, yen shorts were also at record levels. Those who remember what followed know the sequence well: the rapid closing of short positions triggered a sharp rally in the yen, Japan’s Nikkei index came under pressure, Wall Street turned volatile, and Bitcoin fell from $65,000 to $50,000 in just one week.On the surface, this week’s setup looks similar. Of course, no cycle is an exact copy of another; but the positioning structure alone gives risk managers enough reason to watch closely.BOJ Governor Ueda’s tone will be decisiveIf the rate hike comes in line with expectations and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda uses cautious language, markets will likely remain calm. The real breaking point could come if Ueda signals that rates may rise faster, or points clearly toward levels above 1%. In such a scenario, the yen could strengthen sharply; that would weigh on global risk appetite.Crypto has historically been one of the asset classes most sensitive to sudden liquidity tightening. In scenarios like this, it is usually among the first markets to feel the impact.Other key developments this weekWhile the Bank of Japan decision stands out as the most critical event of the week, the broader calendar also looks busy.On Monday, South Korean financial giant Hanwha Investment & Securities invested $400 million in Dunamu, the operator of the country’s largest crypto exchange, Upbit. The deal gives Hanwha a 10% stake in Dunamu. Around $4.5 million worth of STRK token unlocks are also expected.On Tuesday, alongside the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, approximately $8 million worth of ARB token unlocks are scheduled.On Wednesday, the Eurozone’s annual inflation data, CPI, will be released. Both the forecast and the previous reading stand at 3.2%. At 21:00, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, with markets expecting no change from the current 3.75% level. The FOMC press conference will follow at 21:30.On Thursday, U.S. weekly jobless claims will be released at 15:30. The market forecast is 225,000, while the previous reading stood at 229,000.On Friday, U.S. stock markets will be closed for Independence Day. Binance will also delist COS, D, HIGH and MBOX on the same day.
The US-Iran Peace Deal Pushes Bitcoin to $65,700
Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 late Sunday. As the geopolitical risk premium that markets had been pricing in for months suddenly unwound, a broad wave of buying also spread across crypto assets.At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $65,605, up 1.90% over the past 24 hours. Its intraday low was $63,663, while its high stood at $65,935. Ethereum rose 2.8% to $1,720, XRP gained 3.5% to $1.19, and Solana advanced 4.2% to $71.11. The surprise performer of the day was Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, which climbed 7.5% to around $65. Peace deal and the Strait of HormuzCNN reported Sunday that the United States and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement set to take effect on Friday. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would lift its naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as the agreement was signed. The first announcement came from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Trump and Iranian state media confirmed it shortly afterward.The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes. The possibility of its closure had been one of the main factors keeping oil prices elevated in recent months. As that risk faded, crude oil prices saw one of their sharpest daily declines in three months. WTI futures fell 4.84% to $80.77 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 4.33% to trade at $83.53.Analysts: Crypto move was macro-drivenZeus Research analyst Dominick John said markets were repricing risk after the U.S.-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a broad risk appetite move. John described the rally as a positioning and risk rotation move rather than a change in underlying fundamentals.Min Jung of Presto Research painted a similar picture. She said Bitcoin and Ether benefited from improving risk appetite as the peace deal reduced concerns over further geopolitical escalation.Rick Maeda, markets director at crypto derivatives analytics platform Laevitas, described the move as “not a crypto-specific story, but macro relief beta amplified by thin weekend liquidity.” According to Maeda, the selling pressure began to ease after Trump’s remarks on the U.S.-Iran framework, which removed the risk premium from crude oil and lifted pressure from crypto.CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko offered the same framework: “The recovery in crypto was largely driven by a compression in the macro risk premium triggered by Trump’s latest signal that a deal was close. It pulled oil lower while lifting Asian markets at the same time.”Asian markets turned greenWith geopolitical risk receding, equities also started the day on strong footing. The Nikkei 225 was up about 4.89% around midday, nearing a record close. The Kospi jumped 5.63%. The Hang Seng rose 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index was up 2.53%. S&P 500 futures gained 1.2%, while the dollar weakened against major currencies.Fed week and institutional flowsAnother source of uncertainty is on the agenda this week: the Federal Reserve will hold its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. BTSE COO Jeff Mei said Warsh’s remarks would offer “the first clues about how interest rate policy will take shape for the rest of the year.” Maeda listed the key factors to watch as confirmation of the deal and the terms around Hormuz, the risk of renewed escalation, and the direction of oil prices. He added that all of this coincides with a busy central bank week.The peace deal removed an important source of pressure, but it did not answer every question. Strategy’s disclosure earlier this month that it sold 32 Bitcoin to make a preferred stock dividend payment exposed the presence of demand built around the assumption that Saylor would never sell. ETF outflows are also keeping pressure on the market; neither the Strategy issue nor the institutional demand dynamic is the kind of problem that can be solved by a peace agreement. Whether institutional flows return alongside this wave of risk appetite will become clearer in the coming days.
U.S. Producer Inflation Hits 3.5-Year High: How Did Bitcoin and Altcoins React?
Producer price inflation in the United States rose more than expected in May, reaching its highest level since November 2022. While the increase in energy prices triggered by the Iran war deepened inflationary pressures, uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy continues to keep markets cautious. Crypto markets, meanwhile, are moving sideways without establishing a clear direction.PPI Data Came in Above ExpectationsAccording to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 11, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% on a monthly basis in May. Market expectations were for a 0.7% increase, while the previous month’s figure had been recorded at 1.4%. On an annual basis, PPI reached 6.5%, exceeding forecasts of 6.4% and surpassing April’s 6.0% reading.Core PPI, which excludes energy and food prices, painted a more moderate picture. The core index rose 0.4% month-on-month, below expectations of 0.5%, while the annual reading came in at 4.9%, significantly missing the 5.4% forecast. According to data cited by The Kobeissi Letter, headline PPI has returned to levels last seen during the period when pandemic-era stimulus packages were being injected into markets.Consumer price inflation, released a day earlier, had also recorded its fastest increase in three years, although core CPI had come in below expectations. The PPI figures largely confirm that picture: overall price pressures remain strong, while non-energy components are relatively more controlled.The Iran War Is at the Center of the EquationThe key variable markets are now focused on is the impact of the U.S.-Iran military tensions on oil prices. As the conflict environment continues, crude oil prices are being pushed higher, feeding energy-driven inflation and pushing back expectations for the Fed’s rate-cut timeline. Since PPI is one of the indicators the central bank closely monitors when making interest rate decisions, the stronger-than-expected reading reinforced the market view that the Fed may keep policy tight for longer.Expectations for a Fed rate cut this year had already weakened considerably; with the latest data, those expectations declined further. Futures pricing shows that most investors do not expect any rate cut before the September meeting at the earliest.Bitcoin Holds Near $62,000 as Markets Move SidewaysIn this environment of deepening macro uncertainty, crypto markets are also struggling to find a clear direction. Bitcoin has been stuck in the $61,000 to $63,000 range after weeks of sharp declines. Around the time the data was released, BTC was trading at $62,719, up 1.77% over the past 24 hours. Its 24-hour trading range stood between $61,101 and $63,139, while its market capitalization was around $1.25 trillion. Major altcoins showed a similarly cautious performance. Ethereum remained almost flat at $1,643 after rising 0.17% over the past day, while BNB gained 1.75% to trade near $597. XRP, Solana and Dogecoin have yet to recover their weekly losses in the 5% to 7% range. Hyperliquid (HYPE) stood out among the weaker performers, falling 17.57% over the past seven days.All Eyes on the June Fed MeetingAnalysts are now focused on the Fed’s June meeting. The fact that both CPI and PPI surprised markets in the same week strengthens the central bank’s case for maintaining a tight monetary policy stance. This picture is likely to extend pressure on risk assets, and crypto markets are not immune to that process.
U.S. Inflation Hits 3-Year High as Bitcoin Comes Under Pressure
Consumer prices in the United States rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, marking the highest inflation rate recorded since 2023. The data arrived at an already complicated moment for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and further strengthened expectations that at least one rate hike could come before the end of the year. Crypto markets responded cautiously to the figures.Inflation matched expectations, but the picture is not comfortingAccording to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 4.2% in May compared with the same period last year. The result was in line with economists’ expectations and confirmed a third consecutive month of accelerating inflation. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5%, with energy costs serving as the main driver of the increase.Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, came in at 2.9% annually, also matching expectations. Monthly core inflation stood at 0.2%, slightly below the market forecast of 0.3%. Investors interpreted this limited easing as a small positive signal, though it did not change the broader picture.Behind the increase is the renewed escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The conflict has tightened global oil supply, increased pressure on energy prices and effectively disrupted the Fed’s years-long effort to bring inflation back down to 2%.The Fed’s path has narrowed furtherThe reading is the first major inflation data released under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. His predecessor, Jerome Powell, had resisted repeated pressure from the Trump administration to cut interest rates. The central bank kept its policy rate steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range throughout 2026. Signals under Warsh, however, point in a different direction. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are now pricing in at least one rate hike by year-end. At the start of the year, the dominant scenario was based on three rate cuts.Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theya, summarized the situation as follows: “For Bitcoin, an inflation print that matches expectations is not a clean catalyst. It keeps liquidity expectations under pressure and means risk assets will continue trading around positioning, rather than a fresh dovish impulse.”The impact of interest rate pressure on crypto is direct. As rates rise, cash and U.S. Treasuries become more attractive due to their yields. Non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold, meanwhile, lose some of their appeal.Bitcoin attempts to recoverAt the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $61,295, as shown on the chart, down 2.19% over the past 24 hours. After the inflation data was released, the price climbed from $61,000 to around $61,750, then held near the $62,000 range. The recovery is part of a broader rebound that has continued since last Friday’s selloff, which was triggered by strong employment data. The weekly picture remains more severe. BTC has fallen 8.67% over the past seven days. Its 30-day loss has reached 24.35%, leaving the market divided over whether the current rebound is a real breakout or only temporary relief.Ethereum rose to $1,650, XRP to $1.12 and Solana to $65. XRP remained down 1.6% on a 24-hour basis, while Ethereum and Solana turned positive.
EU’s 21st Sanctions Package Against Russia: Crypto Restrictions Expand
The European Commission has announced its 21st sanctions package against Russia. Under the package, a full-scale ban option is also being considered for countries hosting crypto platforms that help Russia evade sanctions.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the 21st sanctions package targeting Russia on Tuesday. The package includes new measures in several critical areas, including the financial sector and crypto restrictions.According to the statement, the Commission plans to expand transaction bans on 20 non-EU entities found to have provided services to sanctioned Russian institutions and individuals. The list includes banks, crypto platforms and oil traders.The most notable element of the package is the country-based ban option. Von der Leyen said the Commission could impose a full-scale ban on crypto services provided from countries outside the EU. This measure would also apply to countries hosting platforms that allow Russia to bypass sanctions. “This will have a strong deterrent effect on countries hosting these platforms,” von der Leyen said. Earlier this year, media reports had indicated that the EU was considering a broader ban on crypto transactions with Russia.The numbers reveal the scale of the issueThe new sanctions package was not prepared without reason. Looking at the background of the package, the figures clearly show the scale of the problem. According to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, total transaction volume received by illicit crypto addresses reached $154 billion in 2025. Russia-linked transactions also account for a significant share of state-backed crypto activity. The ruble-backed stablecoin A7A5, with $93.3 billion in transaction volume, further illustrates this picture.In February, blockchain research firm Elliptic publicly identified five crypto exchanges that it said helped Russia bypass sanctions through financial channels outside traditional banking oversight. These exchanges appear to be filling the gap left by the shut down of Garantex.Last month, the UK Financial Conduct Authority added HTX, formerly known as Huobi Global, to its sanctions list on the grounds that it provided support to the Russian government.Meanwhile, Russia has announced that it is preparing a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework expected to take effect in July 2025. The framework envisions the creation of licensed domestic trading platforms.Energy and trade restrictions are also deepeningThe scope of the package is not limited to the crypto sector. The measures also target Russia’s energy and foreign trade revenues by adding oil tankers and Russian fishing companies to the blacklist for the first time. In her statement, von der Leyen said, “Our sanctions continue to bite and cut deep. We are weakening the foundations of Russia’s war economy.”
