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Trump's Crypto Statement: "We've Ended the War"
All eyes are once again on the US in the crypto markets. President Donald Trump delivered a strong message of support for the cryptocurrency industry during his speech at the America Business Forum in Miami. Sharing his vision for the future of Bitcoin and digital assets, Trump emphasized that America should not lag behind in this area and declared that the "crypto war is over."Donald Trump makes a statement on cryptocurrencyAt an event held in Florida on November 5, 2025, as part of the America Business Forum, Donald J. Trump asserted that the US will be the leading country in the cryptocurrency space. He declared, "We are making America the Bitcoin superpower and the crypto capital of the world."In his speech, he claimed that the federal "war" on the cryptocurrency sector is over. He stated, "Crypto was under pressure, but it's not anymore," and presented a new vision. However, this vision did not include concrete timelines or new institutional directions.Trump suggested that digital assets could play a significant role not only in the technology field but also in the financial sphere. He stated that cryptocurrencies reduce pressure on the dollar and could benefit the US in terms of currency sovereignty. He used the phrase, "It alleviates pressure on the dollar."He also warned that rival countries like China could use the crypto sector to their advantage, emphasizing that the US should take an active role in this area. "If it's not done right, this is a major industry, and China is about to start," he said.Government steps are also progressing, albeit slowly, in line with the vision outlined in Trump's speech. Earlier this year, there were signs of the establishment of federal structures such as the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and the "Digital Asset Stockpile" in the US; however, Bitcoin purchases have not yet materialized.Furthermore, the GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, laid the groundwork for a regulatory framework for stablecoins. However, the market structure and comprehensive regulations are not yet fully established.Why did Trump emphasize crypto?Trump's emphasis on crypto did not emerge overnight. Previous administrations' regulatory crackdown on crypto and the general atmosphere of uncertainty had led to a lack of confidence in the sector. Trump described this situation as a "war," suggesting that this perception had been reversed. He also emphasized the crypto sector's size and support from the business community: "It's a big industry. There are a lot of businesspeople... they were in other businesses, but crypto is also involved," he said. This statement aims to demonstrate that crypto goes beyond being a mere investment tool and offers the potential to create economic growth and jobs.
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6 Nov 2025
Trump: "The US Must Become a Leader in the Crypto Industry, Otherwise China Will Take It"
US President Donald Trump has once again made headlines with his latest statement regarding the cryptocurrency sector. In an interview with CBS correspondent Norah O'Donnell on the program "60 Minutes," Trump emphasized the need for America to maintain its leadership in the crypto industry, saying, "China is entering Bitcoin and crypto in a very big way right now. If we don't lead the way, China or another country will dominate this space."According to Trump, the crypto industry, like artificial intelligence, is central to national competitiveness. Therefore, he argues that the US "must remain at the forefront" in this field, which is shaping the future of global finance. "I want to keep America number one," Trump said, emphasizing that the crypto economy is a strategic area not only for investors but also for the country's technological superiority.CZ defends pardon: "Biden was a witch hunt"During the interview, Trump was also asked about the pardon decision for Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ). Zhao, who was convicted of violating money laundering laws in 2023, was described by the US administration at the time as "a case that harms national security." However, Trump defended the decision, saying, "CZ was the victim of the Biden administration's political witch hunt."Trump described Zhao as a "respected and successful businessman." He said he didn't know him personally but believed he was unfairly targeted. "Just like me, he was subjected to malicious attacks from the Biden team," Trump said, adding that the pardon was a fitting decision. He also added that his sons are more interested in crypto than he is, but that he, too, believes digital assets are a "legitimate and valuable part" of the US economy.China's crypto push and the US's raceTrump's warning that "China is entering crypto in a big way right now" also aligns with Beijing's increasing investments in blockchain technologies. While centralized crypto trading is banned in China, it is expanding its global influence through regulated exchanges operating through Hong Kong. It is also strengthening blockchain infrastructure through state-backed projects.According to Trump, a slowdown in the US could jeopardize the country's technological superiority. He argued that crypto innovation accelerated under the previous administration, saying, "When I was president, America was number one in crypto."Trump concluded his remarks with the words, "We are number one, and that's all I care about." He emphasized the need to maintain leadership in both crypto and artificial intelligence. "China, or any other country, should take that away from us," Trump said, reiterating his view of the digital economy as a national strategy.China's rising influence appears to determine how Washington responds to this competition. Trump's message is clear: The crypto industry is not just an investment vehicle; it's a matter of national power. And in this race, he believes America must maintain its leadership position.
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3 Nov 2025
US-China Summit Held: How Were Cryptocurrencies Affected?
The US-China summit held in Busan, South Korea, on Thursday marked a new chapter in the trade war between the two superpowers. In their long-awaited face-to-face meeting, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to reduce tariffs and strengthen economic cooperation. The meeting was closely watched by both global markets and crypto investors.The two leaders met for the first time since 2019. Following the talks, Trump announced that the average tariff on goods imported from China would be reduced from 57 percent to 47 percent. Duties on fentanyl precursor chemicals, in particular, were reduced from 20 percent to 10 percent. In return, Beijing pledged to crack down on illicit fentanyl exports, announced that it would resume large-scale soybean purchases from the US, and resume rare earth element exports. Trump described the agreement as a "12 on a scale of 1 to 10."Markets initially reacted cautiously. Asian indices experienced volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating slightly from its decade-high. US soybean futures also saw small declines. Analysts noted that investors had already priced in this agreement, and the market reaction was therefore limited. Nevertheless, experts believe this development could ease inflationary pressures and allow central banks to maintain looser monetary policies.The Trump administration's withdrawal from its threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing's postponement of rare earth restrictions are considered positive steps, particularly for the high-tech and artificial intelligence sectors. This move could also ease the production chain for hardware used in crypto mining.How were cryptocurrencies affected?The summit also coincided with the week in which the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officially ended its monetary tightening campaign and cut interest rates. Considering these two developments together, increased liquidity and risk appetite may resurface in global markets. Historically, such periods strengthen the potential for upward movement in risky assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.While crypto markets experienced brief volatility before the summit, they showed signs of recovery as trade tensions eased. Analysts note that the combined impact of the Fed's interest rate cut and the US-China detente could drive new institutional inflows into digital assets in the coming weeks.On the geopolitical front, despite the optimism, a cautious tone prevails. Trump and Xi acknowledge that technology competition will continue. China wants the US to ease technology export restrictions, while Washington continues to establish alternative supply chains with Japan and Southeast Asia.Ultimately, the Busan summit represents a temporary truce in the years-long trade war. However, whether this truce will last will depend on how well both countries deliver on their promises. For now, markets remain cautiously optimistic; on the Bitcoin front, investors have begun to return to risk-taking mode.
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30 Oct 2025
When Will the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Be Announced? The Countdown Has Begun
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to cut interest rates following the FOMC meeting, which concludes today. Markets view a 25 basis point cut as almost certain. This decision is seen as the start of a new easing cycle in monetary policy and could create a strong liquidity surge, particularly for risk assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold. Fed's interest rate decision awaitedAccording to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut with a greater than 99% probability. This step is being considered both a precaution against the economic slowdown and a move to offset the weakening employment. However, the messages delivered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the decision will determine the interest rate path in December and early 2026.This meeting coincided with an unusual period of restricted data flow. Due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US, key economic indicators such as inflation, employment, and growth were not released. This situation caused the Fed to make decisions under a state of "data blindness." Officials were forced to use state-by-state unemployment claims, private sector forecast models, and local business surveys instead of official reports.According to a Reuters poll, most economists believe the Fed will support growth by cutting interest rates this month. However, some members advocate for a more aggressive 50 basis point move, while others oppose halting the balance sheet reduction process (QT). These differences indicate differing perceptions of economic risk within the Fed.Possible scenarios fall into three categories:A 25 basis point cut would create "expected and controlled" relief for the market; the dollar index and bond yields would decline, increasing risk appetite.A surprise 50 basis point cut would indicate that growth concerns are outweighing and increase volatility in the short term.Keeping interest rates steady would shock markets, leading to a sell-off in stocks and a rise in safe-haven assets like bonds and gold.From a crypto market perspective, a rate cut is generally a positive signal. Lower interest rates and a weaker dollar encourage investors to turn to riskier assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum could benefit from increased liquidity during this period. Analysts note that BTC has seen gains of 20-50% in past price cuts, but they emphasize that data uncertainty could sharpen price movements this time around.A similar picture is playing out on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices closed at record highs ahead of the decision. Investors positioned themselves against the possibility of a "small but potentially sustained" price cut. While experts describe the 2025-2026 period as a "wealth creation phase," they also highlight the risk of a sharp correction toward the end of 2026, particularly in artificial intelligence and technology stocks.When will the decision be announced?The Fed decision will be announced at 9:00 PM Turkish time, and Powell's press conference will begin at 9:30 PM. All eyes will be on Powell's forward-looking guidance. "The pace of further reductions," "the balance sheet reduction process," and "decision-making in a data-deficient environment" will be the most critical headlines of the evening. Even a single sentence could shake the dollar, gold, and crypto markets in seconds.
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29 Oct 2025
Trump Picks Fed Chair: Crypto-Friendly Names in the Race
Major change is imminent at the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The Donald Trump administration has selected five candidates for the new Fed Chair, replacing current Chairman Jerome Powell. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the shortlist will be presented to Trump immediately after Thanksgiving, with the final decision to be announced before the end of the year. This development suggests that the central bank's direction could change significantly in 2026.Who are among the Fed Chair candidates?The list includes Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder. These names include both current Fed members and experienced economists from the private sector. Given Trump's criticism of Powell for being "slow on interest rate cuts," the new chair is expected to lean toward a pro-growth and more aggressive monetary policy.Christopher Waller is one of the most notable names on the list. Appointed to the Fed Board by Trump in 2020, Waller has consistently advocated for swifter action on interest rate cuts. Waller, who describes Bitcoin as "electronic gold," believes stablecoins can increase competition in the financial system. He recently stated that crypto companies should be given direct access to the Fed's payment infrastructure. He believes digital assets are now an integral part of the financial system.Michelle Bowman, the Fed's deputy chair for oversight, is known for her cautious yet open-minded approach to crypto. Bowman argued that regulators should not be "overly cautious" and that it would be beneficial for Fed employees to experience digital assets in small amounts. She emphasized the importance of firsthand experience, saying, "I wouldn't want to take lessons from someone who's never skied." The crypto community has responded quite favorably to this approach.Former Fed governor and Bush-era advisor Kevin Warsh is a more cautious member of the list. Although Warsh invested in crypto startups like Bitwise years ago, he disagrees with the idea that Bitcoin can replace the dollar. In a 2018 article published in the Wall Street Journal, he stated, “Bitcoin’s volatility makes it less of a reliable means of payment.” Despite this, his interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could lead to conflicting views within the Trump administration.Trump’s former economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, is notable for both his loyalty and his crypto investments. Hassett, a Coinbase shareholder, is expected to pursue a crypto-friendly policy. He was also in the news recently for his comments during the government shutdown debate.The final name of the five, Rick Rieder, is a Wall Street heavyweight. Rieder, who served as head of global fixed-income securities at BlackRock, played an indirect role in the rise of Bitcoin ETFs. He has previously stated that he sees Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier and a hedge against inflation. However, he remains distant from the idea that digital assets can “solve the world’s monetary problems.”Trump’s choice to replace Powell could also determine the direction of the crypto markets. According to experts, a dovish (low-interest) candidate like Waller or Hassett could boost Bitcoin and altcoin prices by increasing liquidity. Conversely, a candidate focused on preserving market balance, like Rieder, could create a more cautious atmosphere.
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28 Oct 2025
Bitcoin Clings to $114,000: All Eyes on Fed Meeting
The Bitcoin price started the week cautiously, trading around $114,000. Investors are reconsidering their positions in anticipation of a rate cut at this week's US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The market is generally flat, with major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Binance Coin (BNB) experiencing average declines of around 2%. Bitcoin, which rose from $104,800 to $116,000 last week, was strengthened by positive signals regarding China-US trade talks and increased risk appetite. However, in the new week, investors are choosing to wait for the impact of a potential interest rate cut on the market."Bitcoin's recent recovery indicates that institutional investors are re-entering the market and long-term confidence is increasing," said Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet. Zhang noted that open interest volume has increased from $25 billion to $30 billion, emphasizing that this could both increase upside potential and increase the risk of liquidation in the event of a potential decline. According to market data, open interest and funding rates on derivatives exchanges remain high but remain stable. This suggests traders are not taking excessive risks.Fed decision awaitedThe Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held on October 28–29. Markets expect a second 25 basis point interest rate cut and a widening of the interest rate range to 4.00–4.25 percent. This decision is considered the clearest indication that the central bank is shifting from monetary tightening to easing.Zhang said, "Powell is expected to maintain his emphasis on data-driven action in his statements, signaling a controlled liquidity expansion. This supports both bond demand and appetite for risky assets."This "dovish" stance is taking shape amid the delayed release of official economic data due to the US government shutdown. Powell is reportedly placing greater emphasis on private sector indicators (such as the ADP employment report) to compensate for the lack of data. Bitcoin is strong, altcoins are weakBitcoin gained 5.8 percent on a weekly basis, positively decoupling from other cryptocurrencies. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich commented, “Bitcoin used its 200-day moving average as support and rose above $116,000. The $117,000-$120,000 range is a strong resistance zone, but a sustained breakout could lead to new highs.”In contrast, the altcoin market is showing a mixed picture. Ethereum (ETH) fell 2.6 percent to $4,115. Solana (SOL) is trading around $202, while BNB is down 2 percent. XRP is trading around $2.65, and DOGE is trading around $0.20.On-chain data shows that Bitcoin, which has been dormant for more than seven years, is moving at a record pace. This suggests that some early investors are taking profits. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at approximately $3.9 trillion and remains above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Analysts note that the market has moved past its fear phase, with investors now shifting to a "wait-and-see" mode.With the expectation of a rate cut, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate in the $115,000–$120,000 range in the coming days. The market's direction will be determined by the potential increased volatility following the Fed's decision and the reaction of leveraged positions.
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28 Oct 2025
US-China Talks Push Bitcoin Higher: It Reaches Above $115,000!
Bitcoin closed the week on a strong rally. BTC, which gained as much as 4% over the weekend, rose to $115,400, reflecting a renewed shift in investors' risk-taking mode. Increasing trading volume, high liquidation of short positions, and positive signals from US-China trade talks supported this rise.According to CoinGlass data, $393.74 million in positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours. $319.18 million of this came from short positions; meaning investors betting on the price drop were largely forced to close their positions. The largest single liquidation occurred in the $19 million BTC-USD contract on the Hyperliquid exchange. This chart suggests a technical "short squeeze" effect has kicked in, accelerating the rally.JrKripto data revealed that Bitcoin traded at $115,401, clearly breaking through the key $112,000 resistance level. During the day, volume surged 318% above average, pushing the price from $111,453 to $113,572. This momentum created a short-term resistance level at $113,700, but the price found strong support around $113,300. US-China talks draw attentionOn the macro front, the main focus was the talks between the US and China in Kuala Lumpur. It was announced that Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held "constructive and in-depth" negotiations. The parties stated that "fundamental agreements" were reached on issues such as the extension of tariff exemptions, agricultural trade, logistics, and export restrictions. Both countries agreed to continue dialogue and "develop their trade relations in a healthy and sustainable manner." These statements have led to market expectations that the trade war tensions may ease. “Bitcoin’s weekend rally demonstrates how much macro sentiment still drives digital assets,” said Daniel Liu, CEO of Republic Technologies. According to Liu, this move is not directly related to trade policies but rather to markets pricing in looser financial conditions. Daniel Kim, CEO of Tiger Research, commented, “Trump’s renewed US-China dialogue has positively impacted risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, the APEC summit could increase volatility.”Market sentiment shifts toward “greed”On the Myriad forecasting platform, market sentiment shifted toward “greed.” During the day, 60% of participants indicated they expected a rise in the market, while the fear index remained around 42%. However, on-chain data has yet to confirm this rally. Signs of recovery are limited in indicators such as transaction numbers and active users. While this situation increases short-term uncertainty, the outlook for the final quarter of the year remains positive, according to the Tiger Research report. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 amid expectations of increased global liquidity and a Fed rate cut.
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27 Oct 2025
US CPI Below Expectations: Bitcoin Responds Quickly to Data
US consumer prices rose 3.0% year-over-year in September, slightly below expectations. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), inflation was 2.9% in August. This increase reflects the overall price increase across the spending basket and carries a significant signal for policymakers who will determine the course of interest rates in the coming days.This data is particularly noteworthy because the ongoing budget impasse prevents the release of many key economic indicators. With many government agencies closed, data to be evaluated before the Fed's next policy meeting is limited. In this environment, the September CPI report stands as the central bank's only major indicator.This data also immediately resonated in crypto markets. Bitcoin, in particular, rose following the signal of a slight slowdown in inflation. Investors interpreted the lower-than-expected inflation as an expectation of a "moderate monetary policy," but shifted their positions, believing this could be positive for digital assets. In particular, the continued high level of inflation is weighing on expectations for interest rate cuts, which is important for risky assets.Looking at the data details, annual inflation was measured at 3.0%, while economists had forecast an increase of around 3.1%. In this context, the actual increase was evaluated as "slightly better than expected." However, it is also noted that this increase is still above the Fed's 2% target.The primary question for economists and market players is how this will be reflected in the decisions of the Fed, the central bank, at its October meeting. Fed officials have stated that they are now seeing signs of weakness in the labor market, and despite the relative improvement in inflation, they are urging caution. Some policymakers are considering lowering interest rates, while others advocate for cautious price stability.What does the data mean?Some key market findings are as follows:Inflation rose to 3.0% on an annual basis, slightly higher than in August. The data was one of the few economic indicators released during the US government shutdown; jobs and other key data are suspended.From a cryptocurrency market perspective, the controlled rise in inflation has kept alive expectations that interest rates may not remain high for an extended period, supporting risk assets.From the Fed's perspective, this raises the question of whether a rate cut is imminent; however, uncertainties remain high.In conclusion, inflation reaching 3% isn't entirely reassuring for the economic outlook; however, the lower-than-expected figure offers hope that some risks have diminished. Meanwhile, price appreciation is still above the Fed's target range, increasing the likelihood that the central bank will take cautious action rather than make sudden and significant changes to interest rate policy.In crypto markets, such macro data can influence the direction of major assets, particularly large ones. Decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin are sensitive to macro variables such as monetary policy decisions, inflation expectations, and interest rates. In this context, market actors appear to be focusing on indicators such as labor force data and consumer spending to be announced in the coming period.
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24 Oct 2025
All Eyes on Today's US CPI Data: What to Expect for the Crypto Market
US inflation data (CPI/CPI), due today at 3:30 PM Turkish time, has become the most critical agenda item this week for both traditional markets and crypto investors. Due to the government shutdown in the US, September inflation data is being released with a delay of several weeks. Authorities are preparing to release a preliminary version of the data today to reduce market uncertainty. As October draws to a close, the data, which will particularly shape Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, is expected to cause high volatility in the markets.Economists project a 0.4 percent monthly increase and a 3.1 percent annual increase for September. This rate suggests that consumer inflation could rise above 3 percent again in 2025 for the first time. A higher-than-expected data release could lead the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts, which could create selling pressure on risk assets.Critical thresholds for Bitcoin priceBitcoin is trading around $111,400 as of midday. Investors are watching to see if the price can break above $112,000 with the CPI data. Analyst Michael van de Poppe commented, “I think Bitcoin is approaching a volatile breakout. If interest rates start falling, this move could be to the upside.” Technical data suggests $107,000 as support, while $112,000 serves as resistance. The RSI indicator is at 43, suggesting the price still has upside potential. The Fed and its macroeconomic impactFollowing the CPI data, investors will turn their attention to next week’s Fed meeting. A lower-than-expected reading could signal that interest rate cuts could be on the agenda in November or December. Conversely, high inflation could strengthen the dollar index and trigger a short-term sell-off in the crypto market.Some analysts suggest that Ethereum, in particular, could react more strongly to the CPI data. Volatility for ETH is expected to reach as high as 3%, while for Bitcoin, it is expected to remain around 1.5%.On-chain data, however, suggests investor caution. According to Glassnode data, selling pressure is increasing among short-term Bitcoin holders, and analyst Ali Martinez warned, "If Bitcoin falls below the cost level of short-term investors, there could be a risk of a correction to $37,000."Amidst all this uncertainty, investors are focusing on the CPI data, scheduled for release at 3:30 PM GMT. A lower reading could pave the way for a new rally in both crypto and equity markets in the final quarter of the year. However, in a reverse scenario, a sharp increase in volatility and a short-term market shakeout are likely.
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24 Oct 2025
Binance Founder CZ Pardoned: Trump Makes A Statement
US President Donald Trump has made a decision that has resonated throughout the crypto world. President Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the co-founder and former CEO of Binance. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt explained that this step was taken to "end the Biden administration's war on crypto."Leavitt stated, "President Trump has exercised his constitutional authority to pardon Mr. Zhao to end the Biden administration's unjust war on the cryptocurrency industry."Trump's "crypto-friendly" messageTrump responded to questions at the press conference, saying, "Yes, I pardoned him. You're talking about the crypto world, right? Many people said he was innocent." Trump, who stated that he didn't know Zhao personally, said, "I don't know him, but a lot of good people have made requests for him. They said what he did wasn't a crime. And I listened to them." Trump's pardon was interpreted as a continuation of his crypto-friendly policy. Trump, who has pardoned figures like Ross Ulbricht since taking office, recently introduced the World Liberty Financial (WLFI) project and made headlines with his promises, "We will make America the capital of crypto."CZ Returns to the StageBinance founder CZ was accused of failing to maintain effective anti-money laundering controls as part of a 2023 settlement with US authorities and received a four-month prison sentence. The company, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.3 billion fine at the same time.Zhao, who completed his sentence in September 2024, is now officially cleared of his criminal record following the pardon. This allows him to freely enter the US and resume business activities in the country. Furthermore, the "stay out of office" clause in the 2023 settlement becomes void after the pardon. This strongly signals that Zhao may return to the Binance ecosystem. Zhao, in a brief statement from his X account, said, “I am deeply grateful. We will do everything we can to make America the capital of crypto.” Rapid Market ReactionFollowing the amnesty, the market reacted immediately positively. The price of Binance’s native token, BNB, increased by nearly 4 percent, reaching over $1,140. According to current market data, BNB’s market capitalization reached $157 billion. At the same time, the Trump-backed WLFI token gained over 15 percent. Investors believe this development signals a shift in the general perception of crypto in the US. Experts believe the “CZ amnesty” could symbolize a return to Washington’s crypto-friendly policies.Trump’s decision is a striking message on both political and economic fronts. It could mark the return of an era that paved the way for cryptocurrencies and encouraged innovation over regulation.
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24 Oct 2025
Is the US Government Crisis Being Solved? The Crypto World Holds Its Breath
The government shutdown, which has now lasted over three weeks in the US, is reportedly expected to end this week. According to White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, once the ongoing budget impasse between the parties is resolved, long-pending cryptocurrency regulations will be revisited."I think the Schumer shutdown will end this week," Hassett said on CNBC, indicating that the process is in its final stages. The Republican Party points to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer as responsible for the shutdown. According to Hassett, "moderate Democrats" will take steps to reopen the government, after which policy discussions can resume as normal.If no agreement is reached, Hassett said the Trump administration could take "stronger measures," emphasizing that this process should not be prolonged. Earlier this year, Hassett disclosed that he held more than $1 million in Coinbase stock. He is also among Trump's top three candidates for Fed Chair when Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026.Shutdown Halts Crypto ETF ApprovalsThe US government shutdown, which began on October 1st, has become one of the three longest crises in the country's history. The budget dispute has brought operations of many federal agencies to a standstill, directly impacting the crypto market.ETF applications for altcoins like Litecoin, XRP, and Solana, which are under review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), have been suspended due to the shutdown. With most SEC staff on furlough, no progress is being made on these pending applications.However, regulators are expected to re-evaluate these applications once the shutdown ends. The resumption of approval processes for XRP-based ETF products, particularly for major funds like Grayscale, Bitwise, and CoinShares, could create short-term market activity.Senators Negotiate with the Crypto SectorWhile the shutdown continues, discussions on crypto regulation have not completely ceased. This week, Democratic senators will reportedly meet with executives from major companies like Coinbase, Ripple, and Circle. The closed-door session on Wednesday will discuss the future of a bill that will define the structure of the US digital asset market.This meeting will be a follow-up to a meeting held a few weeks ago, attended by Strategy founder Michael Saylor and 17 crypto industry representatives. That meeting also discussed how the bill, known as the "BITCOIN Act," could enable Bitcoin purchases without burdening the public purse.Prolonged shutdown likelyDespite Hassett's optimistic statements, market expectations remain cautious. As seen in the chart below, according to prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the government shutdown lasting longer than 30 days is 77%. This means that the shutdown is still a strong possibility until the end of the month. Market analysts generally believe that a resolution to the situation will be a "relief" for crypto investors.
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21 Oct 2025
US-China Tensions Escalate: Bitcoin and Altcoins Fall
Bitcoin retreated to just above $107,000, partly due to tensions between the US and China. This market decline suggests that investors are increasingly risk-averse in the face of uncertain macroeconomic developments and rising tensions between the US and China. Investors are particularly excited ahead of US President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. Data suggests that crypto investors have begun to reduce their positions.According to market data, Bitcoin price has fallen 2.44 percent in the last 24 hours, falling to $107,830. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has seen a 3.7 percent weekly loss. After a brief recovery at the beginning of the week, BTC has tested the $111,200 level, and is experiencing renewed selling pressure. Some analysts predict this volatility will continue in the short term. For example, according to BTSE COO Jeff Mei, "macro concerns are currently driving the market's daily movements." According to Mei, volatility will continue as trade tensions between the US and China continue. Mei emphasized that the main reason for the decline was investors reducing their positions ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. The meeting is expected to take place in South Korea at the end of the month. “The possibility of an agreement at the end of the month could temporarily calm the markets, but it is unlikely that the tension will completely disappear,” he added. He also stated, “The biggest risk for crypto markets today is the unpredictability of macro developments. Even a single tweet can move prices up or down. The most logical thing investors can do is diversify their portfolios and hedge against uncertainty.”What's the latest on the crypto market?These macro pressures affected not only Bitcoin but also leading altcoins. Ethereum fell 4.77 percent to $3,855, while BNB traded at a 5.36 percent loss. Solana also fell 4.6 percent. Outflows from spot crypto ETFs also continued. According to market data, there were net outflows of $40.5 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs and $145.7 million from spot Ethereum ETFs. Last week, BTC ETFs had their worst weekly outflow of recent times, with a net outflow of $1.23 billion.The weak performance of both individual and institutional investors indicates a deterioration in market sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 29, in "fear" territory. Meanwhile, investors are focusing on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released this week. This data is critical for understanding the inflation trend. The market believes that if the data is weak, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this month increases. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, this probability is priced in at 98.9%.Will trade tensions spill over into geopolitical areas? There's talk that the tensions in US-China relations may not be limited to trade but could spill over into geopolitical areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan. The Trump administration has issued stern warnings against China's imposition of sanctions on companies investing in US-based strategic industries. China's recent restrictions on the US branches of South Korea's Hanwha Ocean have ignited a new economic conflict between the two countries centered on maritime and defense industries.
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21 Oct 2025
Powell Talks Economy: Cryptocurrencies Rebound
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is progressing stronger than expected, but the balance sheet reduction process is nearing completion due to tight liquidity. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia, Powell stated that the banking system is approaching "adequate reserves" and hinted that the balance sheet reduction could cease within a few months. This statement comes as investors are debating how long the Fed will continue to cut interest rates.Powell noted that $6 trillion in bonds and mortgage-backed securities have been removed from the portfolio since mid-2022, saying, "Some indicators suggest that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening. Excessive reductions in reserves could hinder growth." He added that the Fed does not plan to reduce its balance sheet, which swelled to $9 trillion during the pandemic, to previous levels, but will end this process once liquidity conditions stabilize at "adequate" levels. Powell also addressed the political pressures exerted by the Fed over the reserve interest rates paid to banks. Responding to criticism from figures like Senator Ted Cruz, Powell argued that the practice was necessary for monetary policy, saying, “Eliminating the reserve interest rate would eliminate our control over interest rates.” He noted that while the Fed’s profit transfer to the Treasury might temporarily turn negative following interest rate hikes, this would resolve with policy normalization.On the interest rate front, Powell highlighted the weakening in the labor market. He noted that data after July showed a “significant softening,” adding, “Two risks are now more closely aligned: acting too quickly and failing to fully suppress inflation, or acting too slowly and causing unnecessary job losses.” The Fed, which cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at its September meeting, had signaled two additional rate cuts this year. While Powell refrained from confirming these predictions, his tone suggested that interest rate cuts could continue.Powell noted that employment and inflation reports were delayed due to the government shutdown and that current data showed that “growth is slightly stronger than expected.” He also added that the price increases in goods were primarily due to tariffs and did not imply a new wave of inflation.Cryptocurrencies experienced volatilityThe Fed's cautious yet easing stance also resonated in the crypto markets. Powell's statements that "the balance sheet contraction process is nearing an end" triggered a 3% recovery in the Bitcoin price. The BTC/USD pair, which had recently established strong support around $110,000, regained strength following these statements. Analysts predict that the bullish trend in Bitcoin's macro outlook will strengthen again with the upcoming quantitative easing (QE) process. According to CryptoQuant data, whales have been accumulating BTC at historic levels in recent weeks. At the same time, overbought signals seen in the gold market increase expectations that capital may once again shift to Bitcoin. The Fed's steps toward both interest rate cuts and increased liquidity have the potential to accelerate this transformation. With the upcoming inflation data, the market will have a clearer picture of whether the Fed is nearing its "soft landing" goal. For now, Powell's remarks have created a sense of cautious optimism for both Wall Street and the crypto markets.
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15 Oct 2025
Two Interest Rate Cut Signals from the Fed: Crypto Markets Rebound
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced plans for two additional interest rate cuts by the end of the year. According to the released meeting minutes, this decision was made by a narrow majority among Fed members; 10 of the 19 members supported the cut, while 9 advocated for more caution. With the quarter-point cut at the September meeting, the federal funds rate was lowered to a range of 4-4.25%.Led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the board highlighted the weakening labor market and signaled that quantitative easing measures would continue. Despite this, the risk of a resurgence in inflation is worrying some members. The minutes stated, "A majority of participants assess that additional easing of monetary policy will be appropriate for the remainder of this year."New member Stephen Miran attracted attention at his first meeting. Miran voted for a half-point cut instead of a quarter-point, becoming the sole dissenter. In his post-meeting statement, he said, "I'm just a dot on the chart," and he advocated for a more aggressive easing approach. However, some members argued that financial conditions were still tight and urged cautious progress.The Fed minutes also emphasized that weakening in the labor market was the primary driver of the monetary policy shift. "Most participants observed that unemployment risks have increased and inflationary pressures have decreased in recent weeks," the minutes stated. This assessment suggests that the Fed is now focusing on stagnating employment rather than inflation.Discussions were not limited to interest rate cuts. The impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on prices also came to the fore. Most members agreed that while the tariffs may increase prices throughout the year, they will not create persistent inflation. This reduces the obstacles to further easing by the Fed.The partial government shutdown in Washington has also made it difficult to collect economic data. New employment and inflation data are being delayed due to the temporary closure of the Departments of Labor and Commerce. The minutes warned, "If the government remains closed until the October 28-29 meeting, the Committee will be forced to make decisions before receiving new data." How did Bitcoin and altcoins perform?The message was clearly received in the markets. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, investors are pricing in two interest rate cuts this year. While the dollar index declined due to lower interest rates, the price of gold per ounce rose above $4,000 for the first time in history. With increased risk appetite, Bitcoin rose to $124,000 before stabilizing around $122,000. Bitcoin ETFs also had a strong week. Spot BTC funds saw $441 million inflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw eight consecutive days of total inflows of $69 million. It was also reported that institutional investors purchased more than 190,000 BTC in the third quarter, worth approximately $23 billion.Optimism is also growing on the Ethereum side. The "Fusaka" update, scheduled for December, will expand the network's scalability. On the geopolitical side, US President Trump's confirmation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas partially reduced uncertainty in the markets.
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9 Oct 2025
Fed Member's Message That Could Guide Cryptos
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Board Member Stephen Miran reiterated the need for a more rapid and deep interest rate cut, sparking a new wave of optimism in the cryptocurrency markets. Miran's remarks reignited ongoing discussions within the Fed, which has long maintained a tight monetary policy. Investors, believing this stance meant liquidity could increase sooner than expected, fueled their appetite for buying crypto assets.Speaking at the "Managed Funds Association Policy Outlook 2025" event held in New York on Tuesday, October 7th, Miran stated that the "neutral interest rate" had fallen compared to last year. He noted that this situation made the current policy stance "more restrictive than expected," and warned that keeping interest rates high for an extended period could lead to an unnecessary slowdown. In his view, the appropriate interest rate range should be around 2.0–2.5 percent, well below the current 4.00–4.25 percent.What was the inflation statement? Miran stated, "I'm more optimistic than many others about inflation," arguing that the slowdown in the housing market and population dynamics would continue to reduce price pressures. He noted that he estimated the true neutral interest rate to be around 0.5 percent, but added that this rate cannot be measured directly, so policymakers should remain cautious. He also noted that artificial intelligence technologies could raise the neutral interest rate by increasing productivity in the long run, but current data does not yet reflect this effect.Miran's "dovish" approach contrasts sharply with last year's hawkish stance. Miran, who opposed interest rate cuts at the time, attributes this policy shift to the transformation of immigration, fiscal policy, and general economic dynamics. Rising public spending and expanding labor supply, in his view, now necessitate a more relaxed stance.The day before Miran's speech, Bitcoin reached $126,000. However, following the announcement, it fell 2.6 percent to $121,500. At the time of writing, it's trading around $122,800. Ethereum retreated to the $4,450 range after testing $4,750. BNB, on the other hand, rose 8%, becoming the week's standout altcoin. Despite short-term market fluctuations, analysts say Miran's statements could be supportive for crypto assets in the medium term. This is because a low interest rate environment typically weakens the dollar, increasing demand for risky, low-yield assets.If interest rate cuts are implemented, stablecoin yields and DeFi lending rates could decline; however, increased liquidity could offset this effect by stimulating on-chain activity. Furthermore, the $14 billion in institutional capital that entered spot Bitcoin ETFs in the third quarter of this year is expected to continue. This could rekindle interest in digital assets, particularly from large funds.Miran's remarks resonated within the crypto community, with comments like "Is the era of liquidity returning?" However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and some members remain cautious. Powell notes that the risk of persistent inflation could delay interest rate cuts. Still, Miran's call for a more lenient monetary policy has bolstered expectations of a more comfortable macroeconomic environment by the end of the year. For crypto investors, this could mean a resurgence of both market confidence and risk appetite.
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8 Oct 2025