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Crypto This Week: 35 Developments and US Inflation in Focus
Crypto this week began with Bitcoin trading at around $83,300 and Ethereum near $2,555. US inflation, comments from Fed officials, oil prices above $100 and Singapore’s stablecoin regulatory process could shape the market’s direction. The crypto calendar features Shardeum’s mainnet upgrade, the first listings of CENT, Sonic’s token burn and the final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF. Supply events involving seven tokens, including STRK, ARB, CRO and DBR, will also enter focus.US inflation could reshape Fed expectationsThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September consumer inflation data on Wednesday, October 14, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. A Reuters poll forecasts annual headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.5%.These figures are market forecasts rather than published results. A headline reading above expectations could strengthen the view that higher energy costs are passing through to consumer prices more rapidly.Producer prices, retail sales and weekly jobless claims will arrive on Thursday, October 15, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Retail sales increased by 1.2% in August, making the September report important for assessing whether consumer spending retained its momentum.Import and export prices will be released on Friday, October 16, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Industrial production will follow at 4:15 p.m.Futures markets assign an approximately 81% probability to the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting. Employment growth of only 29,000 in September weakened expectations for an October increase, while persistent inflation could bring December back into focus.Fed officials and the Beige Book enter focusFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will discuss the economic outlook in Istanbul on Tuesday, October 13, at 11:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Waller will participate in a separate session on artificial intelligence on October 14 at 10:45 a.m.Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will discuss regulatory and supervisory policy on October 14 at 12:40 p.m. Her speech in Bangkok falls on Friday, October 16, at 5:55 a.m. in Türkiye due to the time difference.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will begin their discussion in Bangkok on October 16 at 6:30 a.m. Türkiye time. The times appear on the Fed’s official calendar.The Fed will also publish its Beige Book on October 14 at 9:00 p.m. The report will provide updated assessments of prices, wages, employment and demand from businesses across the United States.Singapore reaches a stablecoin consultation deadlineThe Monetary Authority of Singapore will announce its monetary policy decision and macroeconomic assessment on October 14. All 10 economists in a Reuters poll expect MAS, which conducts policy through its exchange-rate band, to tighten its stance further.The week’s clearest crypto regulatory deadline arrives on October 16. MAS will close its consultation on legislative amendments to the Payment Services Act that would implement Singapore’s stablecoin framework.The proposal covers reserve value stability, capital requirements, redemption at par and disclosure obligations. MAS is also considering an interest ban for regulated stablecoins, stress-testing requirements and orderly recovery and wind-down plans.No new vote has been scheduled this week for the CLARITY Act in the United States. The Senate’s September 15 procedural vote failed to reach the required 60 votes, so it is excluded from the upcoming calendar.Oil remains above $100Brent crude started the week at approximately $103.30 a barrel, while US crude traded near $90.30. President Donald Trump’s announcement of an energy infrastructure ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine pushed prices lower, although Moscow has yet to confirm an agreement.Tanker incidents and intensifying Houthi attacks in the Middle East continue to support the supply-risk premium. Another rise in oil could affect crypto liquidity through inflation expectations and the Fed’s interest-rate outlook.Shardeum will upgrade its mainnet to v1.1.0Shardeum will activate its governance-approved v1.1.0 upgrade on Tuesday, October 13, at approximately 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The transition will begin at block 7,927,860, so the exact time may change with the pace of block production.The upgrade will synchronize the network with Cosmos EVM v0.6.3, apply security fixes and complete a state migration. Shardeum expects the network to pause for one to two hours and recommends that exchanges suspend SHM deposits and withdrawals at around 5:00 a.m.Unichain will migrate its testnet to OP Enterprise infrastructure on October 13. The chain ID, contracts and user balances will remain unchanged, while the mainnet migration is scheduled for October 29.Sonic’s final claim deadline for approximately 32.69 million S falls on October 15. Tokens left unclaimed after the deadline may be permanently burned, with the final amount depending on claims submitted before the cutoff.A Sky ecosystem governance package approved on October 8 will become executable on October 12 at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The package includes the launch of the stUSDS Keeper, treasury adjustments, reward changes and the burning of certain SKY tokens held in the Pause Proxy.CENT begins trading on three exchangesIncentiv’s CENT token will begin trading against USDT on Gate, KuCoin and MEXC on Monday, October 12, at noon Türkiye time. Gate’s HODLer event, which will distribute 34,482,759 CENT, ends at 11:00 a.m.Upbit will terminate all Ravencoin trading pairs on October 12 at 9:00 a.m. Open RVN orders will no longer be executed after the cutoff.October 14 will be the final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF, BWOW, on NYSE Arca. Investors who retain their shares will receive a cash payment based on the fund’s October 21 net asset value, with liquidation scheduled for October 22.CRO and ARB lead the week’s token unlocksCronos has the largest supply event of the week by dollar value. Approximately 1.17 billion CRO allocated to the strategic reserve will unlock at around 4:03 a.m. Türkiye time on October 17, representing roughly $72.7 million at the spot price recorded during preparation.Arbitrum will release approximately 92.65 million ARB on October 16 at 3:00 p.m. The tokens are allocated to the Arbitrum DAO Treasury and are worth approximately $18.2 million at the current price.Starknet will unlock 127 million STRK on October 15 at 3:00 a.m., worth approximately $13.6 million. At 3:00 p.m. on the same day, 55.56 million SEI allocated to the ecosystem reserve will create around $3.9 million in additional supply.deBridge will release 618 million DBR from its community and launch allocation at around 3:00 a.m. on October 17. The tokens have an estimated current value of $13.1 million.Approximately $7.4 million in STBL and $5.8 million in PENGU will unlock at around the same time. All dollar values were calculated using spot prices available during preparation, remain approximate and do not indicate that recipients will immediately sell their tokens.Four events and the earnings season will be monitoredTABConf, which focuses on Bitcoin development, will take place in Atlanta from October 12 to 15. The program covers Lightning, Bitcoin privacy, security and post-quantum cryptography.Paradigm Frontiers will run in San Francisco from October 12 to 14, while EDCON will take place in Kuala Lumpur on October 17–18. Ethereum.org’s current event calendar confirms both dates.Blockchain Africa Conference will be held in Johannesburg on October 15, focusing on stablecoins, tokenization and South Africa’s COFI regulatory framework. The IMF will also release its updated World Economic Outlook on October 13 during the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings.No confirmed earnings date falls within October 12–18 for Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood, Strategy or the major publicly traded crypto miners. Robinhood will report its third-quarter results on October 27, placing it outside this week’s calendar.The US earnings season beginning with JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs will still matter for broader risk appetite. TSMC is also expected to report a record quarter, supported by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.This week’s 35-event crypto calendarOctober 12, 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time: Upbit ends trading support for RVN.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on Gate.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on KuCoin.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on MEXC.October 12, 5:00 p.m.: Sky’s governance package becomes executable.October 12–14: Paradigm Frontiers.October 12–15: TABConf 8.October 13, approximately 9:00 a.m.: Shardeum v1.1.0 mainnet upgrade.October 13: Unichain testnet migrates to OP Enterprise.October 13, 11:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller discusses the economic outlook.October 13: IMF World Economic Outlook report.October 14: Monetary Authority of Singapore policy decision.October 14, 10:45 a.m.: Waller participates in an artificial intelligence discussion.October 14, 12:40 p.m.: Michelle Bowman discusses regulation and supervision.October 14, 3:30 p.m.: US consumer inflation for September.October 14: Final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF.October 14, 9:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve Beige Book.October 15, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $13.6 million STRK unlock.October 15, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $3.9 million SEI supply release.October 15: Sonic’s final claim and burn threshold for 32.69 million S.October 15: Blockchain Africa Conference.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US producer prices for September.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US retail sales for September.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US weekly jobless claims.October 16, 5:55 a.m.: Michelle Bowman’s Bangkok speech.October 16, 6:30 a.m.: Kevin Warsh and Kristalina Georgieva discussion.October 16: MAS stablecoin consultation deadline.October 16, 3:30 p.m.: US import and export prices.October 16, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $18.2 million ARB unlock.October 16, 4:15 p.m.: US industrial production and capacity utilization.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $13.1 million DBR unlock.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $7.4 million STBL unlock.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $5.8 million PENGU unlock.October 17, approximately 4:03 a.m.: Approximately $72.7 million CRO unlock.October 17–18: EDCON 2026 in Kuala Lumpur.Wednesday’s US consumer inflation report will be the week’s main price catalyst. MAS’s stablecoin rules, the Shardeum migration, the CENT launch and elevated oil prices will shape both crypto-specific developments and the broader market outlook.
Crypto This Week: 30 Events in Focus as Fed Minutes Take Center Stage
Crypto this week began with Bitcoin trading at around $85,500 and Ether near $2,700. The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, the Reserve Bank of India’s interest-rate decision and oil prices above $100 form the core of the macroeconomic agenda.The crypto calendar features approximately $337.5 million in scheduled HYPE unlocks and $40.9 million in ENA unlocks. Binance, Bybit and Robinhood will discontinue several products, while three validator-dependent XRP Ledger upgrades could take effect.Fed minutes will shape expectations for OctoberThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16. All members supported the decision, which marked the US central bank’s first rate increase since 2023.Minutes from the meeting will be published on Wednesday, October 7, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Investors will examine how policymakers assessed energy-driven inflation risks and whether they disagreed over the timing of the next increase.US nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September. The result fell well below the Reuters poll forecast of around 90,000 and reduced the market-implied probability of an October rate increase to approximately 18%–20%.The US services outlook will come into focus with the ISM services PMI on Monday, October 5, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The index is expected to ease to 55 from 55.4 in August, with a reading above 50 indicating continued expansion.The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment index will follow on Friday, October 9, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The consensus forecast points to a decline from approximately 48.2 in September to 47.7.India is expected to raise interest ratesThe Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet from October 5 to 7. Its interest-rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, October 7, at 7:30 a.m. Türkiye time.Thirty-five of the 61 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the RBI to raise its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. Such a decision would mark the central bank’s first increase in nearly four years.High oil prices, broader inflationary pressure and weakness in the rupee support expectations for tighter policy. The decision could influence emerging-market currencies and global risk appetite.The European Central Bank will publish the account of its September 9–10 meeting on Thursday, October 8, at 2:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Investors will look for discussions about energy prices, growth risks and the direction of upcoming rate decisions.Canada’s September employment report will arrive on Friday, October 9, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Statistics Canada says the report will reflect labour-market conditions during the week of September 13–19.Oil remains above $100Brent crude started the week at around $101.60 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded near $90.10. The G7’s decision to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel from emergency reserves has limited prices, although attacks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support a geopolitical risk premium.Middle Eastern crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on several days, even as authorities recorded at least seven new attacks on vessels in the region. Persistently high energy costs could encourage central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.Oil-driven inflation can affect Bitcoin through interest rates and government bond yields. Markets will monitor the speed of the G7 reserve release and the security of Gulf shipping routes.Russia’s crypto registration rules take effectThe Bank of Russia’s new registration regulations for the cryptocurrency market take effect on October 5. Crypto exchanges, digital depositories and operators of systems used to issue digital financial rights will need to join the relevant official registers.The rules establish qualification requirements for executives, the necessary application documents and the central bank’s registration process. Existing market participants will also have access to a simplified application route.In the US, the investment adviser and fund custody proposal announced last week does not have a new effective date within the coming seven days. The comment period for the SEC’s broader Regulation Crypto Assets proposal will remain open until October 20.Binance, Bybit and Robinhood will discontinue tradingBinance will automatically settle and delist the PROMPTUSDT, PUMPBTCUSDT and 1000000BOBUSDT perpetual contracts on Monday, October 5, at noon Türkiye time. The exchange will prevent users from opening new positions in these contracts from 11:30 a.m.Bybit will close deposits for SCOR and AGI on October 7 at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Trading in the SCOR/USDT and AGI/USDT spot pairs, along with Convert support, will end on October 8 at 11:00 a.m.Robinhood Europe will disable sales of BERA, EOS, PAXG and TIA on Friday, October 9, at 10:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The platform will automatically sell remaining BERA and TIA balances at market prices because withdrawals are unavailable for these assets.EOS and PAXG withdrawals will remain available until October 14, placing the next stage of their delisting process outside this weekly calendar. No major new spot listing or high-profile token launch had been confirmed at the time of preparation.Three XRP Ledger upgrades could activateThe XRP Ledger’s PermissionDelegationV1_1 amendment could activate on Friday, October 9, at approximately 12:25 a.m. Türkiye time, provided validator support remains above the required threshold. The feature will let accounts delegate limited permissions without sharing the private keys controlling their funds.The projected activation time for fixBatchV1_2 is 5:12 p.m. on the same day. Servers that fail to upgrade to the security-focused xrpld 3.4.1 release could become amendment-blocked and lose synchronisation with the network.BatchV1_1 is expected to activate at around 5:46 p.m. Türkiye time. The feature will allow users to bundle and submit up to eight transactions together, enabling use cases such as atomic swaps.All three dates depend on validator support remaining above 80% for the full required period. If support falls to or below the threshold, the 14-day countdown will restart and the activation dates will change.HYPE and ENA supply will expandCurrent Tokenomist data show that HYPE and ENA account for most of the week’s major one-time token unlocks. All dollar values are approximate because they were calculated using spot prices available during preparation.Ethena will release approximately 172.7 million ENA to core contributors on October 5. At an ENA price of around $0.237, the unlock is worth approximately $40.9 million and represents about 1.88% of the reported supply measure.Hyperliquid’s scheduled HYPE unlock for core contributors on October 6 is worth approximately $337.5 million. A spot price near $90 puts the scheduled amount at around 3.75 million HYPE.Tokenomist displays a mismatch between the scheduled unlock and the broader committed vesting figure for the same event. This calendar uses the narrower $337.5 million scheduled value, while the amount that becomes claimable or moves on-chain could differ.Aerodrome will release approximately $3.53 million in AERO on October 8. Aptos’s roughly $9.13 million APT unlock on October 11 will be joined by approximately $4.29 million in PEAQ and $2.7 million in IO.The PEAQ unlock stands out with a reported ratio of 3.73%. The io.net schedule shows that approximately 15.88 million IO will become available on October 11.Applied Digital will report earningsApplied Digital, which has shifted from blockchain workloads toward artificial intelligence and high-performance data-centre infrastructure, will report its fiscal first-quarter results on October 7. The conference call will begin at midnight on Thursday, October 8, in Türkiye because of the time difference.The report covers the fiscal quarter that ended on August 31. Investors will monitor data-centre rental income, energy expenses, newly operational capacity and the company’s capital requirements.TOKEN2049 begins in SingaporeTOKEN2049 Singapore will take place at Marina Bay Sands on October 7–8. The programme will focus on crypto infrastructure, stablecoins, institutional capital, tokenisation and regulatory developments across Asia.The broader TOKEN2049 Week programme runs from October 5 to 11. CoinFerenceX will take place on October 5–6, Solana Summit Singapore on October 6 and RWA Summit Singapore on October 9.ETH Lagos will hold its conference and parallel hackathon from October 8 to 10. The event will bring together Ethereum developers and Web3 projects from across Africa.No separate binding, high-impact DAO vote with a confirmed deadline during the week was identified. Gitcoin’s proposal to lower the participation threshold for Snapshot votes from 2.5 million GTC to 1.5 million GTC remains at the forum discussion stage.This week’s 30-event crypto calendarAll times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.October 5: Russia’s registration rules for crypto-market entities take effect.October 5: Approximately $40.9 million in ENA unlocks.October 5, noon: Binance delists three perpetual contracts.October 5, 5:00 p.m.: US ISM services PMI.October 5–6: CoinFerenceX Singapore.October 6: Approximately $337.5 million in scheduled HYPE unlocks.October 6: Solana Summit Singapore.October 6, noon: Euro-area retail sales for August.October 6, 3:30 p.m.: US trade balance for August.October 7, 1:00 a.m.: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks.October 7, 7:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of India interest-rate decision.October 7, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit closes SCOR and AGI deposits.October 7–8: TOKEN2049 Singapore.October 7, 9:00 p.m.: Minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC meeting.October 8, midnight: Applied Digital earnings conference call.October 8: Approximately $3.53 million in AERO unlocks.October 8, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit ends SCOR and AGI spot trading.October 8, 2:30 p.m.: ECB minutes from its September meeting.October 8, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.October 8–10: ETH Lagos conference and hackathon.October 9, approximately 12:25 a.m.: XRP Ledger PermissionDelegationV1_1 activation.October 9, 3:30 p.m.: Canada’s September employment report.October 9, 5:00 p.m.: Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.October 9, approximately 5:12 p.m.: XRP Ledger fixBatchV1_2 activation.October 9, approximately 5:46 p.m.: XRP Ledger BatchV1_1 activation.October 9, 10:00 p.m.: Robinhood disables sales of BERA, EOS, PAXG and TIA.October 9: RWA Summit Singapore.October 11: Approximately $9.13 million in APT unlocks.October 11: Approximately $4.29 million in PEAQ unlocks.October 11: Approximately $2.7 million in IO unlocks.The scheduled HYPE release represents the week’s largest crypto-specific supply risk by dollar value. Fed minutes, the RBI’s decision, services-sector data and oil prices above $100 could have a greater influence on the direction of the wider market.
Bitcoin Gains Momentum as US Inflation Supports Markets
Bitcoin climbed toward $86,000 following the release of US inflation data. Below-forecast core PCE figures lowered expectations for another Fed interest rate hike.According to market data, Bitcoin gained approximately 2.4% following the announcement, trading near $86,000. However, it later retreated to just above $84,000, surrendering part of its initial gains. Consequently, US economic releases took center stage in the crypto market’s macroeconomic outlook. Investors assessed the inflation surprise alongside growth and employment figures.Bitcoin rises following PCE dataThe US core PCE price index increased 0.2% monthly in August. Its annual increase reached 3%.Forecasts had pointed to increases of 0.3% monthly and 3.3% annually. Therefore, both readings came in below market expectations.Meanwhile, the headline PCE price index rose 0.3% from the previous month. The Fed closely monitors PCE measures when assessing price pressures.Gains in traditional markets accompanied Bitcoin’s advance following the release. However, available data cannot attribute Bitcoin’s entire move to a single announcement.Alongside interest rate expectations, institutional demand and investor positioning also influence crypto prices. Therefore, the inflation release represented one important factor shaping the day’s trading.Shifting Fed expectations support cryptoFollowing the releases, markets priced roughly a 37% probability of an October Fed rate hike. Consequently, expectations for unchanged interest rates gained greater weight.The Fed’s September rate hike had increased the importance of incoming data. Investors now seek clarity on the pace of further tightening.Falling expectations for additional rate hikes can create more favorable conditions for risk assets. Higher interest rates can encourage investors to favor interest-bearing investments.Conversely, easing tightening pressure can support demand for assets such as Bitcoin. However, this relationship does not produce equally strong price movements after every economic release.Moreover, a potential October pause does not imply an imminent interest rate cut. Markets currently continue to adjust their expectations for the timing of another increase.Inflation revisions draw attentionChanges to July’s figures also matter when assessing August’s results. The Bureau of Economic Analysis lowered July’s annual core PCE increase from 3.3% to 3%.Consequently, July and August show identical annual increases in the updated series. August’s main surprise came from undershooting the market’s 3.3% forecast.This distinction separates inflation’s month-to-month trajectory from its performance against expectations. Both the level and persistence of inflation will matter in subsequent Fed assessments.Economic strength keeps the rate debate aliveThe US economy recorded annualized growth of 2.2% in the second quarter. The previous estimate had indicated growth of 1.5%.Additionally, ADP reported that private employers added 90,000 jobs in September. This exceeded August’s revised increase of 36,000.Real personal spending also rose 0.6% monthly in August. The result showed that consumption remained resilient despite elevated costs.Strong growth can ease concerns about an economic slowdown. However, robust demand could also encourage the Fed to remain cautious about inflation.Crypto investors will next focus on employment data and comments from Fed officials. Subsequent trading will reveal whether Bitcoin can retain its remaining gains.
Crypto This Week: 29 Events in Focus as PCE and Jobs Data Take Center Stage
Bitcoin started the week of September 28-October 4 at around $82,900. Ether was trading near $2,650 at the time of writing, while rising oil prices and expectations of further rate increases limited risk appetite. The main events of the week will be the US PCE inflation report and Friday’s employment data. On the crypto calendar, votes that could determine Balancer’s future, the Base and Hedera upgrades, Router Protocol’s shutdown and five token unlocks worth approximately $307 million stand out.PCE and jobs data will test Fed expectationsThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the August personal income and outlays report on Wednesday, September 30, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will also include headline and core PCE inflation, closely watched by the Federal Reserve.Annual core PCE inflation stood at 3.3% in July. The monthly price change in the August report will indicate how far higher oil costs have spread into core goods and services.The third estimate of second-quarter economic growth will also arrive on September 30 at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The BEA will release corporate profit and industry-level growth figures at the same time, meaning the initial market reaction may extend beyond the headline GDP number.The first major employment indicator will be the August JOLTS report on Tuesday, September 29, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Job openings and the quits rate will provide new signals about labor demand.The ADP private-sector employment report will be published on Wednesday, September 30, at 3:15 p.m. Türkiye time. ADP and the official payroll report use different methodologies, so the two figures may not necessarily move in the same direction.The strongest market reaction of the week could form around the US employment report on Friday, October 2, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will cover September nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and wage growth.A recent Reuters poll forecasts an increase of 100,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. These figures are market expectations; the official results will be published on Friday.Fed officials will speak after the rate increaseThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Futures markets currently assign an approximately 65% probability to another increase at the October meeting.Michael Barr will discuss the economic outlook on Tuesday, September 29, at 7:40 p.m. Türkiye time. Christopher Waller will speak about payment systems at the Sibos conference in Miami at 10:00 p.m. the same day.Philip Jefferson’s speech on Thursday, October 1, at 8:30 p.m. Türkiye time will focus directly on the US economy and monetary policy. The Fed’s official calendar also includes separate appearances by Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook covering regulation, economic data and central banking.Investors will focus on how officials balance inflation and employment risks. A significant surprise in the PCE or payroll data could increase the market impact of these speeches.Another rate increase is expected in AustraliaThe Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its policy decision on Tuesday, September 29, at 7:30 a.m. Türkiye time. The governor’s press conference will begin at 8:30 a.m.Market pricing indicates an approximately 95% probability that the cash rate will increase by 25 basis points to 4.60%. Core inflation reaching 3.6% and high energy costs underpin expectations for another increase.China’s official September PMI results will arrive on Wednesday, September 30, at 4:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Investors will watch whether the manufacturing index, which stood at 49.8 in August, moves above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction.The Bank of Japan will publish its Tankan corporate survey and a summary of opinions from its September meeting on Thursday, October 1, at 2:50 a.m. Türkiye time. After the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its latest meeting, companies’ price and wage expectations will matter for yen-funded trades.The euro area’s flash September inflation report will be released on Friday, October 2, at noon Türkiye time. Final headline inflation stood at 3.2% in August, and another increase could affect expectations for the ECB’s policy path.Oil approaches $107 againBrent crude started the week at around $106–$107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded in the $93–$94 range. The absence of an agreement in talks between the United States and Iran, together with Middle East shipping risks, continues to support energy prices.Persistently high oil prices could strengthen inflation pressures through transportation, production and food costs. Bitcoin and altcoins could face tighter dollar liquidity if this outlook causes the Fed, RBA and ECB to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.Balancer’s future goes to a voteThe Balancer community will vote until September 29 on BIP-928, which proposes an orderly wind-down of the protocol. The plan would end new business development, place eligible pools into withdrawal-only mode on October 30 and distribute the remaining treasury assets to BAL holders.The proposal includes two “yes” options that differ over the share allocated to tetuBAL assets. A separate proposal, BIP-929, presents a restructuring option for the Balancer brand and infrastructure, making the votes more significant than a routine technical parameter change.Horizen’s Special Council election will end on Wednesday, September 30, at 8:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The elected members will take part in the ecosystem’s governance and oversight processes.Hedera and Base prepare network upgradesHedera will upgrade its mainnet to version 0.77.2 on Tuesday, September 29, between 8:00 p.m. and 8:40 p.m. Türkiye time. The project’s status page warns that brief disruptions may occur during the upgrade.Base node operators must move their clients to version 1.4.2 before the Cobalt upgrade on Wednesday, September 30, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The release includes support for Proofs v2 snapshots and fixes for issues identified in the previous version.Router Protocol will cease operations on the same day and burn 303,333,198 ROUTE. The amount represents approximately 30% of the token’s maximum supply, and the team said its commercialization, licensing and acquisition efforts had failed to produce a viable outcome.Some calendars previously listed the XRPL BatchV1_1 activation for September 29. Its support process was reset, pushing activation back to October 9 at the earliest.Solana has also not confirmed a mainnet date for Alpenglow. Neither development is therefore included among the week’s 29 events.Upbit and Bithumb will end SNX tradingUpbit and Bithumb will terminate trading support for Synthetix on Monday, September 28, at 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchanges said the information requested from the foundation had failed to resolve their investor-protection concerns.Bitget postponed the delisting of FHE, DRIFT, RVV and DOG, previously scheduled for September 30, following a security incident. The decision is not included in the upcoming calendar because the exchange has not announced a new date.No high-profile spot listing or major token launch has been confirmed on leading exchanges this week. Authorities have also not announced a major crypto law taking effect or a new congressional digital asset vote with a confirmed date.Five token unlocks will add approximately $307 million in supplyThe week’s largest proportional token unlock will take place in 2Z. A total of 1.625 billion tokens will be released on October 2, worth approximately $95.4 million at spot prices at the time of writing.The amount equals approximately 46.4% of the project’s reported market capitalization.Canton Network will make 833.33 million community-allocated CC available on October 1. The unlock is worth approximately $94.7 million.Ethena will unlock 275.02 million ENA on the same day. The tokens, worth approximately $73.7 million, are allocated to the team, private investors, the community and the foundation.Sui’s October 3 unlock will release 23.38 million SUI worth approximately $27.9 million. Falcon Finance will also unlock 112.52 million FF on September 29, valued at around $15.3 million.The five unlocks have a combined estimated value of approximately $307 million. Their dollar values will fluctuate with spot prices and should therefore be treated as approximate figures.Conferences begin in Miami, New York and SeoulThe Bitcoin Treasuries Conference will focus on corporate Bitcoin reserve strategies in New York on September 28. The program begins at 4:00 p.m. Türkiye time and will cover balance-sheet management, custody, financing and investor communications.Sibos will take place in Miami from September 28 to October 1. The event will cover payments, tokenization and artificial intelligence in finance, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller among the speakers.The main Korea Blockchain Week conference will be held in Seoul from September 30 to October 1. The program will focus on real-world asset tokenization, the integration of AI and blockchain, and layer-1 and layer-2 infrastructure.No major earnings release from a publicly traded crypto company has been confirmed for the week. The Bitcoin Treasuries Conference and Sibos will therefore carry more weight for tracking how financial companies approach digital assets.This week’s 29-event crypto calendarAll times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.September 28, 9:00 a.m.: Upbit and Bithumb end trading support for SNX.September 28, 3:15 p.m.: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks about banking regulation.September 28, 4:00 p.m.: Bitcoin Treasuries Conference begins.September 28–October 1: Sibos takes place in Miami.September 29, 7:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision; press conference at 8:30 a.m.September 29: Approximately $15.3 million in FF unlocks.September 29, 5:00 p.m.: US JOLTS job openings for August.September 29, 7:40 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks about the economic outlook.September 29, 8:00–8:40 p.m.: Hedera v0.77.2 mainnet upgrade.September 29, 10:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks about payment systems.September 29: Voting ends on Balancer proposals BIP-928 and BIP-929.September 30, 4:30 a.m.: China’s official September PMI data.September 30, 3:15 p.m.: US ADP private-sector employment report.September 30, 3:30 p.m.: US PCE inflation for August.September 30, 3:30 p.m.: Third estimate of US second-quarter GDP and corporate profits.September 30, 8:00 p.m.: Horizen Special Council election ends.September 30, 9:00 p.m.: Final upgrade deadline for Base Cobalt.September 30: Router Protocol ceases operations and burns ROUTE.September 30–October 1: Korea Blockchain Week’s main conference.October 1, 2:50 a.m.: BOJ Tankan survey and summary of opinions from the September meeting.October 1: Approximately $94.7 million in CC unlocks.October 1: Approximately $73.7 million in ENA unlocks.October 1, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.October 1, 5:00 p.m.: US ISM manufacturing PMI for September.October 1, 8:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks about monetary policy.October 2, noon: Euro-area flash inflation for September.October 2, 3:30 p.m.: US September employment, unemployment and wage data.October 2: Approximately $95.4 million in 2Z unlocks.October 3: Approximately $27.9 million in SUI unlocks.The US employment report and PCE inflation could determine the broader direction of the crypto market this week. Oil remaining above $100, the expected RBA rate increase and messages from Fed officials could also increase volatility around Bitcoin’s $83,000 price level.
Crypto This Week: 24 Events in Focus as Fed Signals and PMI Data Take Center Stage
Bitcoin started the week of September 21–27 at approximately $83,600. Ether traded near $2,665 at the time of writing as markets assessed the future path of interest rates following last week’s decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. The crypto calendar features Plasma’s approximately $167.6 million XPL unlock, Binance’s removal of USDP and Terra’s network upgrade. Flash PMI reports, speeches from Fed officials and US durable goods orders will lead the macroeconomic agenda.Fed officials will speak after the rate increaseThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The policy statement described economic activity as solid and inflation as still elevated, while all members voted in favor of the increase.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak about discount window modernization and the functioning of the US Treasury market on Tuesday, September 22, at 5:20 p.m. Türkiye time. Michael Barr will discuss the housing market on Wednesday, September 23, at 5:05 p.m.The Fed’s official calendar also includes the Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Thursday, September 24, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will show how collateral, leverage and credit conditions have changed for major institutions that finance securities transactions.Markets currently assign an approximately 55% probability to another rate increase in October. Comments about inflation, oil prices and the next meeting could affect Bitcoin through movements in the dollar and Treasury yields.PCE inflation will not be released this weekSome economic calendars list US personal consumption expenditures inflation and gross domestic product data for this week. The latest schedule from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the August PCE report and the third estimate of second-quarter growth will arrive on September 30.Neither PCE nor GDP data belong on the September 21–27 calendar. This week’s US releases instead center on new home sales, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.August new home sales will arrive on Thursday, September 24, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The Census Bureau calendar schedules durable goods orders for Friday, September 25, at 3:30 p.m.The University of Michigan will publish its final September consumer sentiment reading at 5:00 p.m. on September 25. The preliminary index fell from 51.7 to 47.8, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%.Flash PMI data will provide a view of global growthSeptember flash purchasing managers’ indexes will be released on Wednesday, September 23. The euro-area composite PMI will arrive at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time, followed by the UK data at 11:30 a.m. and the US manufacturing and services indexes at 4:45 p.m.Readings above 50 would indicate an expansion in private-sector activity. Strong growth accompanied by rising input prices could support expectations that central banks will continue raising interest rates.Price indicators within the services reports will carry particular importance for crypto markets. The Fed continued to characterize inflation as elevated last week, making input costs and selling prices almost as significant as the headline PMI readings.Oil and the US-China meeting enter focusBrent crude started the week above $100 as conflict in the Middle East and shipping risks continued to affect the energy market. High oil prices are maintaining pressure on the currencies and inflation outlooks of energy-importing countries.The Bangladeshi government increased fuel prices by as much as 17.4% from September 21 in response to higher global oil and shipping costs. The decision provides a current example of how the energy shock is passing through to consumer prices.US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on September 24. Comments on trade, artificial intelligence, supply chains and the Middle East could influence risk appetite and the direction of the dollar.Terra will upgrade its network todayTerra will activate a network upgrade at block height 22,942,000 on Monday, September 21. The network is expected to reach the block at approximately 6:00 p.m. Türkiye time, although the exact time may change depending on block production.Binance said it would temporarily suspend LUNA deposits and withdrawals from 5:00 p.m. Spot trading will remain available, while transfers will resume after the exchange determines that the network is stable.The exchange will also launch a USDBRLUSDT perpetual contract tracking the US dollar-Brazilian real exchange rate at 5:00 p.m. The USDT-settled product will trade around the clock and offer leverage of up to 100 times.Binance will end USDP tradingBinance will cease all spot trading in Pax Dollar on Thursday, September 24, at 6:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange will cancel open orders and terminate the related trading-bot services at the same time.USDP deposits will no longer be credited to user accounts after 6:00 a.m. on September 25. Withdrawals will remain available until 6:00 a.m. on November 24.The decision does not end the Paxos-issued token or USDP trading on other exchanges. Its impact is limited to Binance’s spot market and related products that support USDP.The XPL unlock exceeds $167 millionTokenomist estimates that cliff unlocks scheduled for the next seven days have a combined value of approximately $227.17 million. Plasma’s September 25 unlock accounts for roughly $167.6 million of that total.The XPL release equals approximately 67.1% of the project’s reported market capitalization. The tokens belong to the ecosystem and growth allocation, making XPL the asset with the week’s highest dilution risk.Humanity Protocol will release approximately $18.97 million in H tokens to early contributors on the same day. The amount equals around 13.1% of its reported market capitalization.SoSoValue’s September 24 unlock has an estimated value of $6.83 million, equivalent to 6.9% of its market capitalization. STBL will release approximately $5.41 million from its adviser allocation on September 26, representing around 42.7% of its reported market capitalization.Smaller releases include approximately $2.52 million in ID, $3.83 million in SOON, $1.88 million in MET and $2.7 million in AERO.ETHTokyo continues this weekETHTokyo, which began on September 19, will continue through September 27. The event brings together Ethereum developers, security researchers, infrastructure projects and members of Japan’s Web3 community.The US Senate’s procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the required 60-vote threshold on September 15. No new vote has been scheduled, so the proposal does not appear among this week’s upcoming events.The SEC announced a five-year exemption for tokenized stock trading on September 17. Although the decision is a completed development, it creates a new regulatory framework that could affect the tokenized securities plans of companies such as Coinbase and Robinhood.This week’s 24-event crypto calendarSeptember 21, 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time: Binance suspends Terra deposits and withdrawals.September 21, approximately 6:00 p.m.: Terra network upgrade.September 21, 5:00 p.m.: Binance launches the USDBRLUSDT perpetual contract.September 21–27: The remaining ETHTokyo program continues.September 22, approximately 3:00 a.m.: ID unlock worth around $2.52 million.September 22, 5:20 p.m.: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.September 23, 11:00 a.m.: Euro-area flash PMI data for September.September 23, 11:30 a.m.: UK flash PMI data for September.September 23, approximately 11:30 a.m.: SOON unlock worth around $3.83 million.September 23, approximately 4:00 p.m.: MET unlock worth around $1.88 million.September 23, 4:45 p.m.: US flash PMI data for September.September 23, 5:05 p.m.: Speech by Fed Governor Michael Barr.September 24, approximately 3:00 a.m.: AERO unlock worth around $2.7 million.September 24, 5:00 a.m.: USDP removed from Binance Convert.September 24, 6:00 a.m.: Binance ends USDP spot trading.September 24: SOSO unlock worth around $6.83 million.September 24, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.September 24, 5:00 p.m.: US new home sales for August.September 24, 9:00 p.m.: Fed credit conditions survey.September 24: Trump-Xi meeting.September 25: XPL unlock worth around $167.6 million.September 25: H unlock worth around $18.97 million.September 25, 3:30 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.: US durable goods orders and final consumer sentiment.September 26: STBL unlock worth around $5.41 million.The XPL unlock represents the week’s strongest crypto-specific price risk because of its size. The broader market will focus on flash PMI data, Fed officials’ post-meeting messages, oil prices above $100 and announcements from the US-China meeting.
US Sanctions Crypto Exchange Over Hormuz Payments
The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on Iranian cryptocurrency exchange BitBank. The department alleged that the platform transferred payments collected for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and facilitated Bitcoin transfers to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).The decision announced on September 17 also covers BitBank’s software developer and three individuals. US authorities link the exchange to a digital asset network controlled by previously sanctioned Iranian businessman Babak Zanjani.Bitcoin connection to Hormuz paymentsThe Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) alleges that Zanjani used BitBank to facilitate transfers of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin between June and July. The agency says those assets reached the Revolutionary Guards.The statement also identifies Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority as an organization that has used BitBank since June. According to US authorities, it transferred payments collected from ships to the Iranian government through the exchange.The Hormuz connection dates back to OFAC’s July 29 decision. At the time, the agency added HormuzSafe and Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Company to its sanctions list.The Treasury alleges that the arrangement required commercial vessels to purchase mandatory maritime insurance to pass through the strait. According to the department, the coverage claimed to protect against risks such as vessel seizures, while some payments took place in digital assets.Washington describes the arrangement as a mechanism for Iran to collect revenue from maritime shipping. July’s sanctions focused on the organizations providing insurance services, while the latest decision targets the crypto infrastructure allegedly used to transfer the payments.Software developer and three individuals also targetedOFAC also sanctioned BitBank’s developer, Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company. Hossein Ali Zaker Hossein, Mohammad Mahdi Zaker Hossein and Seyed Adel Heidari were added to the sanctions list as well.The department links these individuals to Zanjani’s corporate network. The designations rely on Executive Order 13902, which provides sanctions authority covering various sectors of Iran’s economy.Zanjani has faced US sanctions before. According to Reuters, Washington sanctioned him and digital asset companies Zedcex and Zedxion in January.In July, the US targeted nine additional firms, including companies based in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Reuters reports that Zanjani, who received a death sentence in Iran in 2016 for embezzlement, had his sentence commuted in 2024 and re-emerged in 2025 as a backer of government-linked economic projects.Which transactions do the sanctions affect?The decision blocks the designated individuals’ and entities’ property in the United States or under the possession or control of US persons. Unless an exemption or OFAC authorization applies, US persons are generally prohibited from conducting transactions involving that property.Entities owned 50% or more, individually or collectively, by blocked persons are also subject to blocking. The department warns that foreign financial institutions facilitating certain transactions could also face sanctions.The BitBank decision forms part of “Operation Economic Outcast,” a campaign launched on August 24. The US administration says the campaign aims to restrict Iran’s revenue sources linked to oil trading, financial intermediaries and international companies.At the campaign’s launch, the department announced plans to increase pressure on foreign actors facilitating Iran-related activities. The inclusion of BitBank’s software developer alongside the exchange shows that companies supporting crypto services also fall within the scope of this approach.
Fed Rate Decision Looms: Three Scenarios for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market
The crypto market is focused on the Fed rate decision due Wednesday, September 16. Investors expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly three years. The direction of Bitcoin and altcoins will also depend on what the Fed says about the months ahead.At its July meeting, the Fed kept its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Nine members supported the decision, while three favored a 25-basis-point increase. Expectations of a rate hike have strengthened ahead of the September meeting.CME FedWatch data, based on futures prices, shows that markets view a 25-basis-point increase as the most likely outcome. Such a move would lift the policy rate to 3.75%–4.00%. These probabilities can change during trading, so the latest pricing should be checked before the decision.Why does the Fed rate decision matter for crypto?U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4% year over year in August, with a monthly increase of 0.4%. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.Higher interest rates can encourage investors to favor assets that offer yields and carry relatively lower risk. This could limit the capital flowing into Bitcoin, which does not generate interest income. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could also weigh on risk appetite across the crypto market.Still, an expected rate hike does not necessarily mean prices will fall. Markets may have already priced in much of a 25-basis-point increase. Investors would then turn their attention to whether the Fed plans further hikes.What are the scenarios for Bitcoin and altcoins?If the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points but takes a cautious approach to future moves, the initial crypto market reaction could be volatile. The widely expected hike would carry less surprise. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the press conference could then set the direction.If the Fed signals further tightening to combat inflation, risk assets could come under pressure. Such a message could support Treasury yields and the dollar. Altcoins may move more sharply because they are sensitive to liquidity and investors’ willingness to take risks.Keeping rates unchanged could initially support crypto assets. However, any gains might fade if the Fed describes the decision as a temporary pause. A larger-than-expected rate hike would be a more pronounced negative surprise for the market.According to the official schedule, the decision will be announced at 9:00 p.m. Turkish time. Warsh’s press conference will begin at 9:30 p.m. The Fed will also publish updated economic projections. The projected path for interest rates could matter as much as the decision itself for Bitcoin and altcoins.At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,000.
Crypto This Week: Fed Decision and 30 Key Events
Bitcoin started the week of September 14–20 at around $77,500. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, a crypto vote in the US Senate and oil prices above $100 could increase market volatility. The crypto calendar also features a Pi Network upgrade, delistings by South Korean exchanges and a TRUMP token unlock worth approximately $57 million. Chainflip is preparing to restart its network following a 736,000 USDT exploit over the weekend.Fed interest rate decision and projections are comingThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting will begin on Tuesday, September 15. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and updated economic projections on Wednesday, September 16, at 9:00 p.m. Turkey time. The chair’s press conference will begin at 9:30 p.m.The Fed’s official calendar confirms the announcement times for the current policy rate of 3.50%–3.75%. Futures markets assign a probability of more than 85% to a 25-basis-point increase. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have also revised their expectations toward a rate hike.US consumer inflation, released last week, reached 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually. Inflationary pressure, combined with strong employment data, strengthened expectations that the Fed could resume monetary tightening.Markets will also monitor the dot plot and economic forecasts for 2026–2028. Officials’ projections for further rate increases this year could influence Bitcoin through movements in the dollar and Treasury yields.US retail sales data for August will arrive on September 16 at 3:30 p.m. Turkey time. Import price data, scheduled for the same time, will offer further information about how energy costs are feeding into domestic inflation.BoE and BOJ decisions fall in the same weekThe Bank of England will publish its interest rate decision on Thursday, September 17, at 2:00 p.m. Turkey time. All 65 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the BoE to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%.The United Kingdom will announce August inflation data one day before the decision. According to the Office for National Statistics calendar, the figures will arrive on September 16 at 9:00 a.m. Turkey time. Annual inflation stood at 2.9% in July.The UK labor market report will be released on Tuesday, September 15, at 9:00 a.m. It will include new data on unemployment, wage growth, job vacancies and payroll employment.The Bank of Japan will meet on September 17–18. A Reuters poll indicates strong expectations that the central bank will raise its current 1% policy rate by 25 basis points.The decision is expected on the morning of Friday, September 18. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference will begin at 9:30 a.m. Turkey time.The meeting carries additional significance for crypto markets. A rate hike could strengthen the yen and trigger the unwinding of leveraged positions financed through the Japanese currency.CLARITY Act heads for a critical Senate voteThe US Senate is preparing to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. The legislation aims to define the division of responsibilities within the digital asset market. It needs support from 60 senators before debate can formally begin.The bill would reorganize regulatory authority over crypto assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It would also establish federal rules for exchanges, brokers, custodians and token issuers.The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill in May by a vote of 15–9. According to Reuters, objections involving stablecoin interest payments and crypto companies’ access to banking services could make the 60-vote threshold difficult to reach.Passing the procedural vote would not amount to final approval. If the motion succeeds, the Senate would still need to consider amendments and vote on the full legislative text.The House Ways and Means Committee could also discuss the taxation of staking and mining rewards on September 16. Wash-sale rules for digital assets may form another part of the discussion.However, the committee has not published a confirmed time on its official calendar. Therefore, the potential hearing is not included in this week’s verified schedule.Oil prices become a liquidity risk againBrent crude started the week near $107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $102. Attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and risks to regional shipments continue to support prices.Oil prices remaining at these levels could fuel global inflation through higher fuel and transportation costs. The Fed, BoE and BOJ will all announce decisions this week, increasing the potential impact of energy-driven inflation on digital assets.Attacks on Russian refineries are also reducing diesel production and intensifying pressure on energy markets. US diesel prices rising above $6 per gallon create another risk for corporate costs and consumer inflation.Upbit, Bithumb and Bitget plan delistingsUpbit and Bithumb will end trading support for Storj, JasmyCoin and ThunderCore on Monday, September 14, at 9:00 a.m. Turkey time. The exchanges will cancel open orders for STORJ, JASMY and TT, while withdrawals will remain available until October 14.Bitget’s first change will affect Classic Account users on September 17. The exchange will stop allowing new positions in NEARUSD, AVAXUSD, ADAUSD, LINKUSD, DOGEUSD, SOLUSD, XRPUSD, ETHUSD and BTCUSD coin-margined perpetual contracts after 7:00 a.m.Trading in these contracts will end completely at 10:00 a.m. Bitget’s official announcement indicates that contracts under Unified Accounts will remain unaffected.The exchange will also delist the CAMP/USDT, RHEA/USDT, ORBS/USDT and TURBO/USDT spot pairs on Friday, September 18, at 1:00 p.m. Withdrawals will remain available until December 18 at 1:00 p.m.No major spot listing or high-profile token launch has been confirmed for this week. Therefore, delisting decisions and supply developments involving existing tokens will carry greater weight.Pi Network targets Protocol 27 upgradePi Network has set September 15 as the target date for upgrading its mainnet to Protocol 27. According to the project’s announcement, the update will introduce more flexible and secure authentication features for smart contracts.The team has not announced an exact activation time. The target date also depends on network readiness. Exchanges could temporarily suspend PI deposits and withdrawals during the upgrade.Ethereum developers will hold an All Core Developers Consensus call on September 17 at 5:00 p.m. Turkey time. The meeting will cover consensus-layer development and preparations for the Glamsterdam upgrade. However, the call itself does not represent a mainnet upgrade.Chainflip restart expected after exploitChainflip started the week with operations suspended following an exploit involving its USDT integration on TRON. The attacker abused a vulnerability in transaction memo processing to withdraw 736,442 USDT through six unauthorized payments.The project said its other vaults were unaffected and promised to compensate affected users. Incomplete user transactions worth approximately 115,654 USDT remain in the vault until the network restarts.Chainflip initially said the restart would not happen before Monday. However, it has not provided an exact time.According to the incident report, the project could release a new software version, compensation details and a technical review this week.No separate binding, high-impact DAO vote with a confirmed deadline appears on the calendar. Chainflip’s operational decisions and the CLARITY Act process represent the week’s main governance and regulatory developments.TRUMP and ZRO unlocks carry significant valueOfficial Trump will conduct the week’s largest token unlock by dollar value. A total of 28.7 million TRUMP will enter circulation on September 18. Based on the morning spot price, the tokens are worth approximately $57.1 million.The unlock represents about 2.9% of the total token supply. Its share of the circulating market capitalization is higher, increasing the risk of short-term dilution.LayerZero will unlock 25.71 million ZRO on September 20. The tokens are worth approximately $26.9 million at the current price and represent around 4.2% of the circulating supply.Bedrock will release 40.63 million BR on the same day. The unlock is worth approximately $15 million and equals nearly 18.7% of the circulating supply. This makes it one of the week’s most significant events in proportional terms.Arbitrum’s unlock of 92.65 million ARB will occur on September 16 at 4:00 p.m. Turkey time. The tokens currently have a combined value of around $12.7 million.Additional supply entering the market will include approximately $8.4 million in YZY, $5.4 million in KAITO, $3.6 million in STRK and $2.5 million in SEI. LISTA will also release tokens worth around $2.6 million on September 20.CoinShares results and two conferences on watchCoinShares will publish its financial results for the six months ended June 30 on September 14. Management’s conference call will begin at 3:30 p.m. Turkey time.Digital asset prices, fund flows and assets under management will be among the report’s main areas of interest.Bitcoin miner Bitdeer will also attend the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference on September 14. Its presentation could provide updates on mining capacity, energy infrastructure and investments in artificial intelligence data centers.The European Blockchain Convention will take place in Barcelona on September 16–17. Its program focuses on institutional crypto adoption, tokenization, stablecoins, custody services and European regulation.ETHTokyo Week will begin on Saturday, September 19, and continue until September 27. The program will bring Ethereum developers, security researchers and Web3 projects together in Tokyo.This week’s 30-event crypto calendarSeptember 14: CoinShares publishes its first-half 2026 results.September 14: Bitdeer attends the H.C. Wainwright conference.September 14, 9:00 a.m.: Upbit and Bithumb end STORJ, JASMY and TT trading.September 14–15: Remaining sessions of the ETHTaipei program.September 15, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $3.6 million STRK token unlock.September 15, 6:00 a.m.: Approximately $8.4 million YZY token unlock.September 15, 9:00 a.m.: UK labor market report.September 15, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $2.5 million SEI token unlock.September 15: Target date for the Pi Network Protocol 27 mainnet upgrade.September 15: US Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.September 16, 9:00 a.m.: UK consumer and producer inflation data for August.September 16, 3:30 p.m.: US retail sales for August.September 16, 3:30 p.m.: US import and export prices for August.September 16, 4:00 p.m.: Approximately $12.7 million ARB token unlock.September 16–17: European Blockchain Convention.September 16, 9:00 p.m.: Fed interest rate decision and economic projections.September 16, 9:30 p.m.: Fed chair’s press conference.September 17, 12:00 p.m.: Final eurozone inflation data for August.September 17, 3:30 p.m.: US weekly jobless claims.September 17, 3:30 p.m.: US housing starts and building permits for August.September 17, 2:00 p.m.: Bank of England interest rate decision.September 17, 5:00 p.m.: Ethereum All Core Developers Consensus call.September 17, 10:00 a.m.: Bitget closes nine coin-margined perpetual contracts.Morning of September 18: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, followed by a press conference at 9:30 a.m.September 18, 1:00 p.m.: Bitget delists CAMP, RHEA, ORBS and TURBO spot pairs.September 18: Approximately $57.1 million TRUMP token unlock.September 18, 4:15 p.m.: US industrial production and capacity utilization for August.September 19: ETHTokyo Week begins.September 20, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $15 million BR token unlock.September 20: Approximately $26.9 million ZRO token unlock.The market’s direction may depend less on whether the Fed raises rates and more on the statement’s guidance for future meetings. Oil prices above $100, BOJ-driven movements in the yen and the CLARITY Act vote could also widen trading ranges across Bitcoin and altcoins.
US PPI Data Arrives: Bitcoin and Ethereum Drop Sharply
US producer inflation rose 5.4% annually in August. Selling across the cryptocurrency market accelerated following the data.Bitcoin fell 3.5% to $76,800. Ethereum dropped 3.8% to $2,417. Bitcoin had climbed as high as $79,606 during the day. However, selling pushed the price toward its daily low.Rising inflation strengthened expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Higher Treasury yields also pressured risk assets.The crypto market now awaits US consumer inflation data. The US will publish August CPI figures on September 11.US producer inflation climbed to 5.4%The US Labor Department published the August PPI figures. Producer prices increased 0.4% on a monthly basis.Economists also expected a 0.4% monthly increase. Therefore, the monthly figure matched market expectations.However, annual PPI reached 5.4%. Markets expected the annual rate to reach 5.3%.Producer inflation stood at 4.8% in July. Consequently, the latest figure signaled accelerating price pressures.Prices excluding food and energy increased 0.2% monthly. Annual core PPI rose to 4.6%.This rate stood at 4.2% in July. Therefore, underlying price pressures also remained strong.Rising energy costs particularly pushed producer prices higher. Increasing oil prices amplified inflation risks.Bitcoin fell below $77,000Bitcoin traded around $78,000 before the PPI report. Selling pressure increased considerably after the data.BTC fell to $76,788 during the writing of this report. Its daily loss reached 3.5%.Consequently, Bitcoin moved below the $77,000 support level again. The price also erased all its intraday gains.Bitcoin recently produced an important technical signal. Its 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day average.Investors call this pattern a “golden cross.” However, macroeconomic pressure limited short-term technical optimism.The $80,000 level represents strong resistance for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the $76,000 region remains important support.Continued selling could bring $75,000 into focus. Conversely, buyers could target $77,000 again.Ethereum’s loss reached 3.8%Ethereum also declined alongside Bitcoin. ETH fell as low as $2,416.The token had climbed to $2,517 during the day. However, strong selling ended its recovery attempt.Ethereum’s daily loss reached 3.8%. Therefore, ETH slightly underperformed Bitcoin.Altcoins generally move more sharply during risk-off periods. Consequently, macroeconomic uncertainty could intensify pressure on altcoins.Changes in Bitcoin dominance also carry importance. Rising dominance could deepen losses across altcoins.Rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured cryptoBrent crude remained above the $100 level. The price surpassed $105 during the day.Elevated oil prices increase energy-driven inflation risks. This outlook complicates the Fed’s interest rate decision.The US 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.9%. Rising yields reduce demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.Wall Street futures also declined following the data. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 1.1%.S&P 500 futures lost 0.47%. Meanwhile, Dow Jones futures declined 0.29%.Therefore, selling pressure extended beyond the cryptocurrency market. Declining global risk appetite affected several asset classes.Crypto market awaits US CPI dataInvestors now focus on Friday’s US CPI report. This data could carry greater weight in the Fed’s decision.Stronger-than-expected CPI could increase rate-hike expectations. Such an outcome could accelerate selling across cryptocurrencies.Lower inflation could provide short-term market relief. However, oil prices remain a key risk.The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. Therefore, Bitcoin volatility could remain elevated in the coming days.
Crypto This Week: All Eyes on 30 Key Developments, U.S. Inflation and ECB Decision
Bitcoin started the September 7–13 week at around $79,800. Last Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report strengthened expectations for an interest rate hike, while a security incident involving 4,000 BTC on Liquid Network became the first major crypto risk of the week. According to the official report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. A Reuters poll had expected an increase of only 56,000 jobs, while markets pushed the probability of a September rate hike to around 60% after the data.Liquid Network halted after 4,000 BTC was withdrawnAround 4,000 BTC was withdrawn from the federation wallet of Bitcoin-based Liquid Network on September 6 by individuals describing themselves as “white hats.” At Bitcoin’s current price, the assets are worth roughly $320 million.Liquid said the transactions were carried out through SideSwap’s Peg-out Authorization Key and stated that the relevant key had not been compromised. The network halted new transactions and asked exchanges to suspend L-BTC deposits and withdrawals.There is still no confirmed timeline for the funds to be returned or for the network to restart. L-BTC reserves, exchange responses and the on-chain movement of the funds will therefore remain under close watch throughout the week.The incident did not affect the Bitcoin mainnet. The risk is concentrated in Liquid’s federation-managed BTC deposit and withdrawal mechanism.U.S. inflation could influence the Fed’s September decisionU.S. producer prices will be released on Thursday, September 10 at 3:30 p.m. Turkey time. The BLS calendar confirms that the report will cover August.Producer prices were unchanged on a monthly basis in July, while annual PPI declined to 4.7%. The recent increase in oil and refined fuel costs makes energy components particularly important in the August report.Consumer prices will be released on Friday, September 11 at 3:30 p.m. Turkey time. A Reuters survey expects headline CPI to rise 0.4% month over month, while the core index excluding food and energy is expected to increase 0.2%.Annual headline inflation is expected at 3.4%. A separate model estimate from the Cleveland Fed puts August inflation at 3.38% and core inflation at 2.38%.Fed officials have entered the blackout period ahead of the September 15–16 meeting. As a result, markets will focus on PPI, CPI and weekly jobless claims rather than new guidance from policymakers.ECB expected to raise rates by 25 basis pointsThe European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, September 10 at 3:15 p.m. Turkey time. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will begin at 3:45 p.m., while new economic projections will be published at 4:45 p.m.The ECB’s official schedule shows that the meeting will take place in Berlin. All 65 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the deposit rate to be increased by 25 basis points to 2.50%.Eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% in August. The ECB’s messaging will be important in determining whether the hike is viewed as a one-off move and how higher energy prices are reflected in its 2027 projections.Oil prices approach $97Brent crude started the week at around $96.85, while U.S. crude traded near $92.10. Iran’s plan to establish a restricted maritime zone around the Strait of Hormuz and renewed attacks in the region have increased the risk premium surrounding energy supplies.Market assessments indicate that elevated diesel and oil prices are once again putting pressure on the global inflation outlook. Persistently high energy costs could strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy from both the Fed and the ECB.China’s August foreign trade data will be released on September 8. A Reuters poll expects exports to increase 25% year over year, imports to rise 30% and the trade surplus to reach $119.05 billion.Harmony considers migrating to EthereumThe Harmony team has proposed shutting down its independent layer-1 network and continuing the ONE token as an ERC-20 asset on Ethereum. The proposal has not yet passed a binding on-chain vote, and a final block date has not been confirmed.According to the published plan, users are being asked to exit liquidity pools and other smart contracts by September 10. Contracts that cannot be migrated directly, multisig wallets and decentralized applications could face risks.Validators will be able to begin shutting down their nodes from 5:00 p.m. Turkey time on September 10. The proposal calls for ONE balances to be recorded at the final block, with new Ethereum-based tokens distributed to the same addresses.There is no separate binding, high-impact DAO vote with a confirmed deadline this week. Harmony’s proposal therefore stands out as the main governance-related development.MultiversX to activate Supernova upgradeMultiversX will activate its Supernova mainnet upgrade on September 10 at around 9:05 p.m. Turkey time. The exact timing could shift by several minutes depending on block and round production.According to the project’s technical schedule, the upgrade will activate at round 32,157,661. Block time will fall from six seconds to 600 milliseconds, while the network will separate consensus from transaction execution.Fractal Bitcoin’s first halving is expected around September 9. The block reward will fall from 25 FB to 12.5 FB, while the project also plans to permanently burn 4.1 million unused FB.Upbit and Bitget to implement delisting decisionsUpbit will end BONK/KRW and BONK/USDT trading on September 7 at 9:00 a.m. Turkey time. According to the exchange’s official announcement, open orders will be canceled, while withdrawals will remain available until October 7.Bitget will close spot margin trading for FIDA, ALT, SATS, BLAST, BLUR, WAVES, BAN, AIXBT, RUNE, EGLD, LPT and GRT on September 10 at 6:00 a.m. Turkey time. Open positions and outstanding liabilities may be automatically liquidated by the exchange.The main spot delisting will take place on September 11 at 1:00 p.m. Turkey time. Bitget’s announcement includes 19 pairs involving VIC, CESS, MAK, VERT, JELLYJELLY, FIDA, BROCCOLI, ALT, SATS, FTT, BLAST, BLUR, WAVES, BAN, AIXBT, RUNE, EGLD, LPT and GRT.Withdrawals for these assets will remain open until December 11 at 1:00 p.m. Turkey time. There is no confirmed high-profile new spot token launch on a major exchange this week.NAME, PUMP and UP supply increases stand outThe largest proportional token unlock of the week will take place for NAME. Tokens worth around $55.67 million will be released on September 9 at 3:00 a.m. Turkey time, equivalent to 74.54% of the token’s current market capitalization.The STABLE unlock, scheduled for around 3:00 a.m. on September 8, will add approximately $24.9 million worth of tokens to supply. PUMP will see around $34.68 million worth of tokens become available on September 12 at 9:00 a.m.Unitas Labs will unlock approximately $11.78 million worth of UP on September 13 at 3:00 a.m. Turkey time. The amount represents 18.62% of the token’s current market capitalization.Aptos is scheduled to release 14.36 million APT on September 12 at 3:00 a.m. According to allocation data, 43.6% of the tokens are assigned to the community, 27.6% to insiders, 19.6% to investors and 9.3% to the foundation.Approximate dollar values for the token unlocks were calculated using current spot prices and will change as prices fluctuate. The weekly calendar also includes around $3.49 million worth of DOS, $3.49 million worth of HOLO and $1.39 million worth of NRS unlocks.Four crypto conferences scheduledBoston Blockchain Week will take place from September 8–10 at the Marriott Boston Quincy. The program focuses on blockchain infrastructure, artificial intelligence and security.Stablecon USA will be held on September 9–10 at National Harbor in the Washington area, bringing together stablecoin issuers, banks and regulators. Stablecoin payments, institutional integration and regulation are among the main topics on the agenda.Crypto Expo Dubai will take place on September 9–10 at the Dubai World Trade Centre. The organizer’s website indicates that the event is proceeding as planned, although regional security developments and flight conditions will remain under close watch.Web3 Warsaw will be held in Warsaw on September 10. The official program includes sessions covering blockchain, gaming, NFTs and artificial intelligence.Robinhood executives will participate in the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 9 at 8:50 p.m. Turkey time. The company’s investor calendar will provide a live webcast of the presentation.There are no confirmed earnings releases this week from Coinbase, Circle or major publicly traded crypto miners. Robinhood’s presentation will therefore be the main corporate event involving a listed crypto-linked company.Crypto calendar: 30 developments to watch this weekSeptember 7: U.S. markets closed for Labor Day.September 7, 9:00 a.m. Turkey time: Upbit ends BONK trading.September 8, around 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $24.9 million worth of STABLE tokens unlock.September 8: China releases August foreign trade data.September 8–10: Boston Blockchain Week.September 9, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $55.67 million worth of NAME tokens unlock.September 9, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $1.46 million worth of MOVE tokens unlock.Around September 9: Fractal Bitcoin’s first halving.September 9–10: Stablecon USA.September 9–10: Crypto Expo Dubai.September 10: Web3 Warsaw.September 9, 8:50 p.m.: Robinhood presents at the Goldman Sachs conference.September 10, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $3.49 million worth of DOS tokens unlock.September 10, 6:00 a.m.: Bitget closes 12 spot margin pairs.September 10, 3:15 p.m.: ECB interest rate decision; press conference at 3:45 p.m.September 10, 3:30 p.m.: U.S. August producer prices.September 10, 3:30 p.m.: U.S. weekly jobless claims.September 10, 5:00 p.m.: SEC meeting on preparations for 24-hour trading.September 10, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $2.18 million worth of LINEA tokens unlock.September 10, 5:00 p.m.: Planned start of Harmony validator shutdowns.September 10, around 9:05 p.m.: MultiversX Supernova upgrade.September 11, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $3.49 million worth of HOLO tokens unlock.September 11, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $1.39 million worth of NRS tokens unlock.September 11, 1:00 p.m.: Bitget removes 19 spot trading pairs.September 11, 9:00 a.m.: U.K. July GDP, industrial production and trade data.September 11, 3:30 p.m.: U.S. August consumer inflation.September 11, 5:00 p.m.: Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment data.September 12, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately 14.36 million APT tokens unlock.September 12, 9:00 a.m.: Approximately $34.68 million worth of PUMP tokens unlock.September 13, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $11.78 million worth of UP tokens unlock.
Fed Beige Book Warns on Inflation: Rate Risk Remains for Bitcoin
The US Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book showed that the US economy continues to grow at a modest pace. At the same time, inflation pressures driven by energy and production costs have not fully disappeared.For the crypto market, the main takeaway from the report is once again the Fed’s rate path. A resilient economy and persistent price pressures may support the view that interest rates could stay higher for longer.The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for September 15-16. Markets were pricing in roughly a 65% chance of a rate hike when the Beige Book was released.Fed sees modest economic growthAccording to the Beige Book, economic activity has increased modestly since early July. Ten of the Fed’s 12 districts reported growth.The other two districts said economic activity was unchanged. Consumer spending also moved slightly higher overall.However, consumers became more price sensitive. In particular, higher fuel prices and financing costs limited some areas of spending.The manufacturing sector strengthened across several districts. Orders tied to data center and defense investment supported growth.The labor market presented a more restrained picture. Overall employment increased only very slightly.Three Fed districts reported moderate employment growth. Four districts saw slight increases, while five reported no change.Why do inflation pressures matter?For the crypto market, the most important part of the report was the inflation outlook. The Fed said cost pressures remained strong, especially in manufacturing and construction.Energy, transportation and raw material prices continued to rise. Metals and petrochemical products also pushed business costs higher.The effects of tariffs were still being felt across many districts. Healthcare and insurance costs also added to company expenses.At the same time, rising consumer price sensitivity is limiting businesses. Some firms said they were unable to fully pass higher costs on to customers.The pace of price increases was unchanged in eight Fed districts. It slowed in three districts and accelerated in one.This creates a mixed picture for the Fed. Inflation pressures are still present, while economic activity has not weakened enough to clearly justify a softer policy stance.What does it mean for Bitcoin?Bitcoin and other crypto assets remain sensitive to changes in Fed policy. Higher rate expectations usually support the US dollar and Treasury yields, while reducing the appeal of risk assets.For that reason, the Beige Book’s inflation message may be read as a short-term caution signal for the crypto market. Still, the report alone does not guarantee a rate hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also recently emphasized inflation as a top priority. He said he wants to see greater confidence that price growth is moving toward the 2% target at a sufficient pace.From here, upcoming US data will be more decisive for market direction. In particular, employment and inflation figures could reshape rate expectations ahead of the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting.The Beige Book, for now, shows that the US economy is still expanding. At the same time, it suggests inflation pressures remain firm enough to keep the Fed from feeling fully comfortable.
ADP Employment in the US Slows to 38,000: What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?
Fresh employment data from the United States pointed to a slowdown in the labor market. According to ADP, private-sector employment increased by only 38,000 jobs in August.The market had expected an increase of 47,000. The July figure stood at 44,000. As a result, job growth missed expectations and also slowed compared with the previous month.Under normal conditions, weak employment data could be seen as supportive for risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, the current market backdrop is more complicated.The US labor market is slowingThe ADP National Employment Report showed that the US private sector created 38,000 new jobs in August.The figure had stood at 98,000 in June. Employment growth then slowed to 44,000 in July, before losing further momentum in August.Recent JOLTS data also showed that companies have become more cautious in hiring. In July, US hiring fell by 278,000, while job openings came in at 7.27 million.Layoffs, on the other hand, have remained low. That means the latest data point to a market where new hiring is slowing, rather than one facing a sharp employment crisis.How could weak ADP data affect Bitcoin?A weaker labor market could be positive for Bitcoin if it reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy further.Looser rate expectations usually put pressure on US Treasury yields and the dollar. Easier financial conditions can, in turn, create a more favorable liquidity backdrop for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.Still, the August ADP report alone may not be enough to change Fed expectations.Rising energy prices have revived inflation concerns in the United States. Brent crude climbed toward the $95 range, while the US 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.8%. Expectations of another Fed rate hike have also increased in recent days.Bitcoin, meanwhile, was trading around $77,000 ahead of the ADP release. Despite the rise in global bond yields, the cryptocurrency has recently moved in a range between $76,800 and $81,600. For that reason, the impact of ADP data on Bitcoin should not be assessed in isolation. It makes more sense to read it together with Treasury yields, the dollar, and Fed expectations.The key data point for Bitcoin will come on FridayThe real test for the crypto market on the US employment front will come on Friday, September 4.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the August employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report will include nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth.ADP private-sector data is usually followed as a leading indicator ahead of the official jobs report. However, the two datasets can diverge significantly from month to month.If Friday’s employment data also comes in notably weak, expectations for another Fed rate hike could ease. In that case, the reaction in Treasury yields and the dollar would become even more important for Bitcoin.A strong official jobs report, on the other hand, could reinforce expectations of tighter Fed policy, especially alongside high oil prices. That would likely keep macro pressure on the crypto market.
Crypto Week Ahead: 25 Events to Watch as U.S. Jobs Data Takes Center Stage
Bitcoin started the Aug. 31-Sept. 6 week at around $77,900. Expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in September and escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed the market into a more cautious mood following last week’s gains. The main focus of the week will be the U.S. employment report due Friday. On the crypto side, Russia’s new law, Mina’s Mesa upgrade, delisting decisions from Binance and BitMEX, and supply developments involving SUI, EIGEN, ENA and HYPE will be closely watched.U.S. employment data could reshape Fed expectationsFed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech pushed the probability of a September interest rate hike to around 60%. Warsh said inflation remained high and further tightening could be needed to restore price stability.The first major test of this pricing will arrive on Tuesday, Sept. 1. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July’s JOLTS job openings data at 5:00 p.m. Turkey time.The market expects the number of job openings to remain near 7.4 million. The ISM manufacturing PMI, scheduled for release at the same time, is expected to come in at 55.1.The ADP private-sector employment report will be released on Wednesday, Sept. 2, at 3:15 p.m. Turkey time. ADP’s official calendar confirms the date, while market expectations point to an increase of 45,000 jobs.The Fed will also publish its Beige Book report on Wednesday at 9:00 p.m. Turkey time. The report will offer insight into employment, wages, prices and how businesses assess the economic outlook.Weekly initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday at 3:30 p.m. Turkey time. Economists expect 205,000 applications, compared with the previous reading of 203,000.The ISM services PMI will follow at 5:00 p.m. Turkey time. The index is expected to rise from 54.1 to 54.4.The strongest market reaction of the week could form around Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Turkey time. According to the BLS calendar, the report will cover employment and wage changes in August.The market expects the U.S. economy to have added 50,000 jobs. Employment declined by 23,000 in July.The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.2% monthly and 3% annually.Strong employment and wage figures could increase the likelihood of a rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting. A weaker result could strengthen expectations that the Fed will remain on hold despite Warsh’s inflation warnings.Russia’s sweeping crypto law takes effectRussia’s new regulations for the digital currency market will take effect on Sept. 1. According to the Central Bank of Russia, both qualified and non-qualified investors will be able to trade cryptocurrencies through licensed intermediaries.Annual purchases by non-qualified investors will be limited to 300,000 rubles at each intermediary. These users will also have to pass a suitability test before trading.Qualified investors will also be subject to testing, although they will not face limits on assets or transaction amounts. The regulation brings foreign stablecoins under Russia’s cryptocurrency rules as well.Licensed crypto exchanges and digital asset custodians will operate under the new system. The law does not allow cryptocurrencies to be used for payments for goods and services within Russia.Exporters and importers will be able to use cryptocurrencies for cross-border payments. Existing companies have until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses and bring their operations into compliance with the new rules.Eurozone inflation and oil prices in focusEurostat will release the eurozone’s preliminary August inflation data on Tuesday, Sept. 1, at noon Turkey time. Eurostat’s previous report put July inflation at 2.9%.Market forecasts for August are concentrated between 3.2% and 3.3%. Rising energy costs are expected to be the main factor pushing headline inflation higher.Brent crude rose by more than 2% on Monday, approaching $90.60. U.S. attacks on Iran and Tehran’s response renewed concerns over global supplies.Persistently high oil prices could increase interest rate pressure on the Fed and the European Central Bank. This environment may affect risk assets, including Bitcoin, through the U.S. dollar and government bond yields.The meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors is also taking place in Asheville from Aug. 31 to Sept. 1. According to the U.S. Treasury’s program, the agenda includes global growth, trade imbalances, inflation, public debt and the war with Iran.Mina network to activate Mesa upgradeMina Protocol will conduct its Mesa mainnet upgrade on Thursday, Sept. 3. According to the project’s detailed migration schedule, the network will stop accepting transactions at 1:00 p.m. Turkey time.Block production is expected to pause temporarily at 6:00 p.m. The Mesa package will be released at 7:30 p.m., with the first Mesa block expected at 9:00 p.m.Mesa will increase zkApp capacity and shorten block intervals. The upgrade will also introduce an automatic upgrade mechanism designed to simplify future protocol transitions.Existing zkApps will need to update their verification keys using o1js 3.0. Exchanges may suspend MINA deposits and withdrawals while the network is offline.The Mina team will make its final “proceed or postpone” decision on Aug. 31. If an insufficient number of validators upgrade to the required version, the project may set a new date.Zilliqa is also expected to conduct a block-height-based hard fork on Sept. 2. The estimated activation time is 3:58 p.m. Turkey time, although this could change depending on the speed of block production.The update aims to transfer some older wallet balances frozen due to a security issue in the Ledger application to new addresses. Zilliqa’s incident page shows that transactions on the legacy network have been temporarily suspended.Binance and BitMEX to implement delistingsBitMEX will delist 11 perpetual futures contracts on Wednesday, Sept. 2, at 3:00 p.m. Turkey time. The exchange will close open contracts through early settlement at the same time.BitMEX’s announcement shows that the decision applies only to derivatives contracts. Users should review the automatic settlement conditions and reference price calculations.Binance will end spot trading for ICON, Secret and Storj on Thursday, Sept. 3, at 6:00 a.m. Turkey time. According to the official announcement, all spot pairs involving ICX, SCRT and STORJ will be removed.Open spot orders involving these assets will be canceled at the same time. Binance will stop crediting deposits made after 6:00 a.m. Turkey time on Sept. 4.Withdrawals will remain available until 6:00 a.m. Turkey time on Nov. 3. The exchange said it may convert any remaining tokens into stablecoins after the deadline, although the conversion is not guaranteed.ENA, SUI, EIGEN and HYPE supply set to expandSept. 1 stands out as the busiest day on this week’s token calendar. All dollar figures are approximate because their values will change with spot prices.Sui will unlock approximately 13.53 million SUI on Sept. 1. The increase represents 0.33% of the circulating supply and is worth around $9.6 million at current prices.EigenCloud will release 36.82 million EIGEN on the same day. The tokens are worth approximately $6.9 million and represent 5.48% of the circulating supply.Ethena’s broader tracked supply schedule includes 275 million ENA. According to Tokenomics.com, the allocation is worth around $40.4 million and covers distributions to investors, the team, the community and the foundation.IOTA will make 12.37 million tokens available for circulation on Sept. 2. The current unlock schedule shows that the tokens, worth approximately $500,000, will be distributed among the IOTA DLT Foundation, the IOTA Foundation and the Tangle Ecosystem Association.The week’s largest potential supply event by dollar value will take place on Hyperliquid. Approximately 9.92 million HYPE will be unlocked on Sept. 6 under the monthly allocation schedule for core contributors.Based on a HYPE price of around $80.60, the scheduled amount is worth nearly $800 million. However, the full amount is not expected to be transferred on the same day.In previous months, there was a large gap between the amount of vested HYPE and the number of tokens actually claimed. The amount reaching the market could therefore remain well below the theoretical value of approximately $800 million.NFT.NYC and Solana events to beginNFT.NYC will take place at the Edison Ballroom in New York from Sept. 1 to Sept. 3. According to the event’s official website, the program is divided into 12 categories, including digital art, gaming, infrastructure, brands and on-chain finance.Solana Startup Village will be held in Amsterdam from Aug. 31 to Sept. 5. The first three days of the program will feature workshops focused on DeFi, security and privacy.The Common S3nse conference and hackathon will take place on Sept. 4 and Sept. 5 as part of Cypherpunk Week in Amsterdam. The event will focus on privacy technologies and decentralized infrastructure.There are no confirmed large-scale earnings reports from crypto companies or high-profile token launches scheduled for the week. U.S. economic data, oil prices, Russia’s regulations and the supply schedules of existing tokens will therefore carry greater weight.This week’s 25-event crypto calendarAug. 31-Sept. 1: G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meetingAug. 31-Sept. 5: Solana Startup Village AmsterdamSept. 1: Russia’s sweeping crypto law takes effectSept. 1, 3:00 a.m. Turkey time: SUI token unlockSept. 1: EIGEN token unlockSept. 1: ENA supply eventSept. 1, noon Turkey time: Eurozone preliminary August inflationSept. 1-3: NFT.NYC 2026Sept. 1, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. JOLTS job openingsSept. 1, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMISept. 2, 3:15 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. ADP private-sector employmentSept. 2: IOTA token unlockSept. 2, 3:00 p.m. Turkey time: BitMEX delists 11 perpetual futures contractsSept. 2, around 3:58 p.m. Turkey time: Zilliqa hard forkSept. 2, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. factory ordersSept. 2, 9:00 p.m. Turkey time: Fed Beige BookSept. 3, 6:00 a.m. Turkey time: Binance ends trading for ICX, SCRT and STORJSept. 3, 1:00-9:00 p.m. Turkey time: Mina Mesa mainnet upgradeSept. 3, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. weekly initial jobless claimsSept. 3, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. July trade balanceSept. 3, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaksSept. 3, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. ISM services PMISept. 4, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and wage dataSept. 4-5: Common S3nse conference and hackathonSept. 6: Planned unlock of approximately 9.92 million HYPE
Bitcoin Holds Near $80K Ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
Bitcoin is holding near the $80,000 mark ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech. The altcoin market is also trading higher, led by a strong rally in Solana.Warsh will speak on Friday, August 28, at 10 a.m. ET. Markets will watch his comments on interest rates and the Fed’s approach to the Treasury market.The speech comes after the U.S. Treasury expanded its long-term bond-buyback program. The Fed’s response could affect crypto prices through movements in the dollar and Treasury yields.Why Warsh’s speech matters for BitcoinAccording to the Federal Reserve’s official calendar, Warsh will deliver keynote remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. This will be his first Jackson Hole speech since becoming Fed Chair in May.Markets expect Warsh to provide signals about the future path of interest rates. His comments on balance sheet policy and long-term Treasury yields could prove more significant.The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of its long-term bond buybacks on August 19. The decision came as the 30-year Treasury yield approached its highest level since 2007.According to the Treasury Department, the maximum size of each operation will rise from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The higher amounts will apply from September 9 through November 4.The program covers nominal coupon securities in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity sectors. The Treasury aims to improve market liquidity for older and less actively traded securities.Treasury buybacks are separate from QETreasury buybacks do not directly represent quantitative easing. The program does not expand the Fed’s balance sheet or create new central bank reserves.Investors still interpreted the decision as an attempt to limit long-term borrowing costs. Expectations strengthened around the possibility that the Fed could eventually support the bond market.Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer said markets were beginning to price in the risk of fiscal dominance. He argued that the Treasury may need to expand the program further to keep yields under control.Such a scenario could increase pressure on the Fed to support the operations. Timmer said this development would likely weaken the dollar while supporting gold and Bitcoin.Bitcoin trades close to $80,000Bitcoin was trading at around $79,979 at the time of writing. BTC gained 1.42% over the previous 24 hours and 6.09% over seven days.Bitcoin’s market capitalization exceeded $1.6 trillion. Its daily trading volume stood at approximately $37.9 billion.Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs also supported the price. Market data showed that U.S. funds recorded $2.8 billion in net inflows across eight consecutive trading sessions.Bitcoin climbed as high as $81,280 during overnight trading. Profit-taking ahead of Warsh’s speech later pulled the price back toward $80,000.Solana leads the altcoin marketSolana recorded the strongest move among major altcoins. SOL gained 6.40% in 24 hours to trade at $107.64.Solana’s seven-day gain reached 19.61%. HYPE traded at $83.31 after rising 14.56% over the same period.XRP advanced 1.52% to $1.43. The token gained 9.59% during the past seven days. BNB traded at $712.65, while Ethereum changed hands near $2,501. BNB gained 6.71% for the week, compared with Ethereum’s 5.67% increase.Dogecoin rose 1.44% to approximately $0.088. Zcash stood out among major altcoins with a weekly gain of 32.51%.Warsh’s remarks could create two market scenariosWarsh could weaken market expectations by describing the Treasury buybacks as routine liquidity operations. A clear statement ruling out Fed participation may push the dollar and long-term yields higher.Under this scenario, profit-taking around Bitcoin’s $80,000 level could accelerate. Altcoins may experience larger price swings because of their higher volatility.Leaving room for possible coordination with the Treasury would create a different outlook. Expectations for lower yields and a weaker dollar could extend Bitcoin’s rally.BNY analysts do not expect Warsh to offer direct forward guidance. They believe his speech may focus on the Fed’s reform agenda and balance sheet policy.
Bitcoin Faces $80,000 Test as Markets Await PCE Data
Bitcoin is struggling to break above $80,000 as investors turn their attention to the upcoming US core PCE data. BTC traded around $78,700 at the time of writing following its rapid rally.Bitcoin traded between $77,972 and $79,916 during the day. The cryptocurrency has gained approximately 22% since falling to $64,300 on August 19.Profit-taking emerged around $80,000 following the rally. Investors are now watching how inflation data and the Jackson Hole comments will affect the market.Bitcoin rally slows ahead of PCE dataThe US Treasury’s decision to expand its bond buyback program helped trigger Bitcoin’s rally. The department raised the maximum buyback size for 10- to 30-year securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.According to the US Treasury’s announcement, the larger buybacks will begin on September 9. The decision pushed long-term Treasury yields lower and increased pressure on the dollar.Lower yields and a weaker dollar supported demand for Bitcoin. BTC consequently climbed from around $64,000 to the $80,000 threshold within a short period.However, the rally has lost momentum over the past two days. Bitcoin tested $80,000 but failed to establish a sustained move above that level.Easing tensions in the Middle East and falling oil prices have also changed the market outlook. These developments reduced inflation risks while limiting urgent demand for alternative hedges.How could core PCE affect Bitcoin?The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July’s PCE data on August 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Core PCE, which the Fed closely monitors, excludes volatile food and energy prices.Core PCE increased by 0.1% month over month in June. Annual core inflation reached 3.3%. Markets expect the monthly increase to accelerate to 0.2% in July.A lower-than-expected reading could increase downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. Such an outcome could support another Bitcoin test of $80,000.Hotter core inflation could strengthen concerns that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy for longer. This scenario could accelerate profit-taking in Bitcoin following its recent rally.Markets will also follow Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Warsh’s comments on inflation and interest rates will provide another major catalyst this week.Bitcoin ETFs attract $314 millionInstitutional demand for US spot ETFs continues to support Bitcoin’s strong performance. According to Farside Investors, the funds recorded $314.3 million in net inflows on August 25.Spot Bitcoin ETFs consequently completed their seventh consecutive session of positive flows. Inflows exceeded $300 million during each of the past five trading sessions.The funds attracted a combined $2.08 billion during those five sessions. Net inflows over the seven-day streak reached approximately $2.57 billion.BlackRock’s IBIT collected $284.4 million during the latest trading session. Fidelity’s FBTC attracted $15.4 million, while Grayscale’s BTC received $7 million.Which Bitcoin price levels matter?The first major resistance zone for Bitcoin sits between $79,750 and $80,000. A sustained move above this area could bring the $81,000–$83,000 range into focus. A lasting breakout above $83,000 could strengthen medium-term expectations for $95,000–$100,000. However, this scenario requires strong spot trading volumes and continued ETF inflows.The first support zone sits between $77,500 and $76,000. Losing this area could trigger a deeper correction toward $74,000.Slower ETF inflows or hotter PCE data could increase short-term selling pressure. Another failed breakout above $80,000 would also raise the correction risk.Meta Title: Bitcoin Awaits PCE Data as $80,000 Test LoomsMeta Description: Bitcoin struggles with $80,000 resistance as markets await PCE data and the Jackson Hole speech. Spot ETFs attracted $314 million.Keywords: Bitcoin, Bitcoin price, PCE data, core PCE, Bitcoin ETF, BTC, Jackson Hole
