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US nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, exceeding expectations of 65,000. As the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, Bitcoin moved in both directions following the release. After briefly slipping below $75,000 during the day, the price recovered to around $75,475 as of 15:33 UTC. Bitcoin failed to hold its initial gainsThe jobs report, released at 13:30 UTC on Friday, November 6, triggered short-term volatility in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s initial move higher did not last. After climbing above $76,100, the price returned to around $75,600.At approximately 13:58 UTC, Bitcoin traded near $75,780. That was roughly 0.2% below its pre-release level. The initial reaction therefore consisted of a brief rise followed by a modest pullback.Bitcoin remained below $76,000 in subsequent trading. At 14:35 UTC, the price stood at approximately $75,312. This indicated that the initial recovery following the release had lost momentum.Prices across these timestamps reflected the market’s search for direction after the data. The early rise and subsequent retreat pointed to choppy trading.Strong hiring supported expectations of a rate hikeUpward revisions to previous months also stood out in the jobs report. September’s initially reported gain of 29,000 rose to 60,000. The combined upward revision for August and September totaled 84,000 jobs.The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, below the 4.2% forecast. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month over month and 3.1% year over year. Both wage measures also exceeded market expectations.Following the release, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December rose to around 79%. Before the announcement, that figure stood near 70%. The shift showed that investors associated the strong report with a greater likelihood of tighter monetary policy.Interest-rate expectations matter for liquidity and risk appetite in the crypto market. Higher rates can make interest-bearing assets more attractive. However, a single employment report does not determine Bitcoin’s direction.Stronger-than-expected wage growth was another factor investors considered. Together with firmer hiring, it heightened sensitivity to the Fed’s upcoming rate decision.Bitcoin entered the release in an already weak marketBefore the employment announcement, the crypto market was still feeling the effects of Thursday’s technology stock selloff. Bitcoin’s 24-hour decline had reached 5.3% ahead of the data. Ethereum had fallen 7.3% over the same period.Liquidations of leveraged crypto positions had also exceeded $1 billion in the 24 hours before the announcement. Those losses and liquidations occurred before Friday’s jobs report. The market’s entire daily decline therefore could not be attributed to the newly released figures.The previous session’s selling provides important context for assessing the reaction to the employment data. While Bitcoin’s initial pullback was modest, the market had yet to recover the previous day’s losses.The post-release price action and the decline over a broader period therefore presented different pictures. Volatility dominated the first few minutes, while the daily performance continued to reflect earlier selling pressure.Attention turns to inflation dataUS inflation will be one of the next major releases on crypto investors’ calendars. The October Consumer Price Index is due on November 10. The figures will offer further insight into how interest-rate expectations may evolve after the strong employment report.The dollar and Treasury yields also remain important for Bitcoin during this period. Subsequent trading will show whether the initial volatility following the jobs report develops into a sustained move.
Democrats won majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the November 3 midterm elections, making it less likely that the CLARITY Act will pass in its current form. The bill, which would set rules for US crypto markets, fell 10 votes short of advancing in the Republican-controlled Senate in September. Two disputes remain unresolved after the election. One concerns rewards for stablecoin holders. The other centers on ethics rules governing President Donald Trump’s family’s crypto investments.Crypto bill fell 10 votes short in the SenateThe CLARITY Act aims to define which US regulator oversees each type of digital asset and what rules crypto companies must follow. The House passed the bill 294–134 on July 17, 2025, with 78 Democrats joining Republicans in support.The Senate vote went differently. On September 15, 2026, senators voted on whether to take up the bill for debate. Only 50 voted in favor, short of the 60 needed to proceed. Four Republican senators joined Democrats in voting against the measure, and the bill never reached a final vote.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, told CoinDesk that Republicans had been unable to clear that hurdle even when they held majorities in both chambers. He said the industry may have to start negotiations from scratch in the new Congress. Stefan Muehlbauer, head of US government affairs at blockchain security firm CertiK, also sees little chance of the current bill passing.Stablecoin rewards divide banks and crypto exchangesAt the heart of the dispute is whether crypto exchanges should be able to offer rewards to customers who hold dollar-backed stablecoins. Banks argue that such payments could encourage savers to move some of their deposits to exchanges. Forte executive Anton Golub said Republicans failed to resolve the dispute between banks and crypto companies while they controlled Congress.The industry spent heavily on the elections. According to figures Golub shared, crypto-linked political action committees spent roughly $170.5 million, including at least $125.5 million to support Republicans.Golub said the Trump administration created a more favorable environment for crypto companies. The Trump family’s financial interests in the industry, however, helped fuel Democratic opposition to the bill. During Senate negotiations, Democrats called for stronger ethics provisions to prevent the president and his family from personally profiting from crypto activities while he holds office.A revised bill could depend on Democratic supportBrent Fulfer, co-founder of venture capital firm TBV, pointed to the two congressional votes that preceded the election. In his view, the decisive setback for the current bill came in the Senate in September. Yet the support of 78 House Democrats suggests that a revised bill with stronger safeguards against conflicts of interest could draw votes from both parties.The new Congress could also bring closer scrutiny of the industry. CertiK’s Muehlbauer expects Democrats to hold hearings on money laundering, cybersecurity and consumer protection. The Trump family’s crypto activities could also face congressional investigation.Jason Fernandes, founder of AdLunam, sees room for crypto companies to work with Democrats. He said the industry could support rules aimed at curbing abuses, provided lawmakers target those responsible for misconduct without extending the same restrictions to every company in the market.
Bitcoin sold off and then rebounded sharply as Democrats won majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. BTC fell below $76,000 as the first results came in, then climbed to $78,300 on Wednesday morning, November 4. Ether also approached $2,300, while TRUMP, the token named after Donald Trump, bucked the trend and fell. Bitcoin erases election-night losses within hoursSelling picked up as it became clear that Democrats would win both chambers of Congress. Buyers stepped in just below $76,000. By late morning, Bitcoin had climbed to $78,300, more than $2,300 above its overnight low.Dick Lo, founder of TDX Strategies, attributed the rebound to how quickly the election outcome became clear. In his view, Democratic control of Congress could make it harder to pass legislation backed by the crypto industry. At the same time, with the White House and Congress in the hands of different parties, both sides have less room to push through sweeping policy changes that could unsettle markets.Nasdaq 100 futures followed a similar path. After falling as much as 2.4% overnight, they edged into positive territory during the European morning session. Both markets saw their steepest losses as the first results came in. Buyers returned once it became clear which party would control Congress.Bitcoin options trades reach $660 millionThe options market offered a glimpse into how traders positioned themselves on election day. Paradigm executive Nicolas Quatravaux said Bitcoin options block trades on the platform reached about $660 million in notional value, more than double the previous day’s volume.Traders bought roughly $420 million in Bitcoin call options through Paradigm. These contracts give buyers the right to purchase Bitcoin at a set price. Even as selling continued in the spot market, some derivatives traders were positioning for a rebound. The $420 million figure represents the notional value of the contracts.Ether rises as TRUMP token falls 4%The recovery spread to altcoins. Ether rose 1.7% to $2,296.59, while XRP gained 1.5% and Cardano added 1.4%. Solana, BNB and Dogecoin each rose 0.8%. TRUMP, one of the tokens most closely tied to the election, fell 4% after the results came in.For the crypto industry, one of the night’s most closely watched races was in Ohio. Democrat Sherrod Brown defeated Republican Senator Jon Husted to return to the Senate. According to CoinDesk, the crypto-backed groups Fairshake and Digital Freedom Fund committed more than $63 million between them to the Ohio race in an effort to defeat Brown.The Ohio result could stay on the industry’s agenda long after Bitcoin’s brief sell-off. When the new Congress takes office in January, Brown will be among the senators crypto companies will need to court for support on market structure legislation, just months after backing efforts to defeat him.
Bitcoin started the week of November 2–8 at around $78,000. Ether traded near $2,280, while last week’s Binance hack continued to weigh on market risk appetite. Binance customers withdrew a net $3.64 billion after the exchange came back online. The company said it had replenished 95% of the $6.3 billion in stolen assets and was sourcing the remaining low-liquidity tokens from the market.The US midterm elections and Friday’s employment report lead the week’s macroeconomic agenda. Central banks in Australia, Sweden, Norway and the United Kingdom will also announce interest-rate decisions.US elections could shape the direction of crypto regulationThe US midterm elections will take place on Tuesday, November 3. Voters will decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and approximately one-third of the Senate.The new balance of power in Congress will directly affect the digital asset market. The Senate failed to secure the 60 votes required to advance the CLARITY Act in September.The crypto industry spent approximately $176 million across more than 100 races during the election cycle. Groups backed by Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz want the new Congress to reconsider the market structure bill.A change of majority in either chamber could reshape debates over SEC and CFTC authority, stablecoin interest payments and crypto companies’ access to banking services.US employment report will test Fed expectationsThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish September’s JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday, November 3, at 6:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Markets expect approximately 7.1 million openings, following the previous reading of 7.08 million.The ADP private-sector employment report will arrive on Wednesday, November 4, at 4:15 p.m. Türkiye time. The market expects an increase of 75,000 jobs.The ISM services PMI will follow at 6:00 p.m. on the same day. Economists expect a reading of around 54.8, compared with 54.9 previously.The week’s main data release will be the US employment report on Friday, November 6, at 4:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will cover October employment, unemployment and wage changes.Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by approximately 63,000–65,000. Employment rose by 29,000 in September, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%.Strong employment and wage results could support expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy for longer. A weak report could lower the dollar and Treasury yields, giving Bitcoin short-term room to recover.Four central banks will announce interest-rate decisionsThe Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision on Tuesday, November 3, at 6:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Its press conference will begin at 7:30 a.m.Markets expect the RBA to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%. The bank is assessing the risk that higher oil prices could become embedded in inflation expectations.Sweden’s Riksbank will publish its decision and monetary policy update on Wednesday, November 4, at 11:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Markets expect the bank to raise its rate from 1.75% to 2%.Norges Bank will announce its decision on Thursday, November 5, at noon Türkiye time. The bank could leave its current policy rate unchanged at 4.50%.The Bank of England’s decision will arrive at 3:00 p.m. on the same day. According to Reuters, economists expect the BoE to raise its rate from 3.75% to 4%.Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference will begin at 3:30 p.m. New inflation projections and guidance for 2027 could influence sterling and global risk appetite.Euro-area inflation may have accelerated againEurostat will publish its flash inflation estimate for October on Wednesday, November 4, at 1:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Annual inflation stood at 3.8% in September.Market forecasts suggest the rate could rise to between 3.9% and 4%. Economists expect core inflation to remain near 2.5%.Higher energy costs are complicating the European Central Bank’s interest-rate outlook. A result above expectations could support the euro and place upward pressure on global bond yields.Strait of Hormuz risks keep oil prices elevatedBrent crude remained near $110 despite falling more than 3% on Monday. West Texas Intermediate traded at approximately $101.Iranian and Qatari officials are continuing talks aimed at ending the US-Iran conflict. The Strait of Hormuz could reopen within two days if the parties accept the proposal under discussion.A breakdown in talks could increase the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. Energy costs could also affect Bitcoin and altcoins through central banks’ interest-rate decisions.Base will upgrade as Horizen L3 shuts downBase will activate its Denim mainnet upgrade on Thursday, November 5, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The network is expected to remain operational during the upgrade.Node operators must upgrade to base/base v1.5.1. Denim will reduce Base’s block time to 200 milliseconds.The change will make Horizen L3, which settles on Base, incompatible with the network. Horizen will therefore shut down its L3 permanently.Users must move their assets to Base by 4:00 p.m. Türkiye time on November 4. USDC.e balances are not covered by the automatic return process, making it important for users to bridge these tokens before the deadline.Initia started the week by bringing its L1 and rollups back online. The project deployed an audited MoveVM patch and restored the reserves backing AUSD0, USDC.n and WETH following last month’s exploit.Some calendars list Zcash NU7 as an event for this week. Zcash’s official page shows that the mainnet activation height has not been set, so NU7 has been excluded from this calendar.Coinbase will complete a token migrationCoinbase will conduct its AERO and VELO migration between November 2 and 4. Existing AERO balances will convert to the new AERO token at a one-to-one ratio.VELO balances will convert at approximately 0.044 AERO per token. Coinbase will temporarily disable AERO and VELO transfers during the migration.KuCoin will list five tokenized assets representing shares in Amazon, Coinbase, Intel, Meta and Nvidia on November 2. The first three pairs will open at 1:00 p.m. Türkiye time, followed by INTCX and NVDAX at 2:00 p.m.KuCoin and Bitget will conduct extensive delistingsKuCoin will remove 23 tokens from its spot market on November 5 at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The list includes ANOME, ATA, BCUT, BULLA, CESS, COMMON, D, DOLO, ECHO, ES, EYWA, GAIA, ION, LADYS, NOON, PIGGY, SAROS, HIPPO, SUNDOG, SUP, U2U, VAYLA and XTER.The exchange plans to keep withdrawals open until December 7 at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time. KuCoin says it may bring this deadline forward if the affected networks stop operating.Bitget will remove CHILLGUY, ZIG, BRETT, FOGO, WEMIX and AL spot pairs on Friday, November 6, at 1:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The decision covers spot trading through unified accounts.Bybit will end transfer support for several stablecoin networks at 11:00 a.m. on the same day. The exchange will stop USDC deposits and withdrawals through Sei and Hedera, along with USDT transfers through Berachain, Kava and Kaia.OKX will end withdrawal support for GODS, PRCL and DUCK on Saturday, November 7, at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange removed these tokens from its spot market in August, so this development does not represent a new delisting decision.ENS governance vote will concludeThe ENS community’s Governor Nexus Update vote will end on Tuesday, November 3, at 9:15 p.m. Türkiye time. The proposal aims to prepare a new governance contract based on OpenZeppelin v5.6.1 for an external audit.The Arbitrum community is also discussing a system that would allow new Stylus contracts to activate after passing a limited security audit. The current stage does not create binding onchain execution.Approval would not allow new contracts to activate on the same day. Arbitrum would first need to complete contract development, an independent audit and a final onchain vote.HYPE’s theoretical unlock value exceeds $866 millionBitway will unlock approximately 101.6 million BTW on November 2. Based on a preparation-time price of $1.01, the unlock is worth approximately $102.6 million.Momentum’s schedule shows 252.7 million MMT unlocking on November 4. The estimated $31.6 million value is based on a projected schedule and exceeds the amount of MMT currently in circulation.Hyperliquid’s theoretical schedule shows approximately 9.92 million HYPE for November 6. At the current price, this creates an upper limit of roughly $866.5 million.A significant difference exists between HYPE tokens becoming eligible and the amount holders actually claim. Tokenomist currently tracks approximately $15.8 million as committed, meaning the full theoretical amount may not enter the market.The schedule lists 888.89 million STABLE worth approximately $23.9 million. Tracking platforms place the release between late November 7 and November 8, creating some uncertainty over the exact time.Avalanche will release approximately 1.67 million AVAX allocated to the foundation on November 8. At the current price of $8.60, the unlock is worth around $14.4 million.Circle and Bitcoin miners will report earningsCipher Digital will publish its third-quarter results before the US market opens on Monday, November 2. Its conference call will begin at 4:00 p.m. Türkiye time.Circle will discuss its third-quarter results on Wednesday, November 4, at 4:00 p.m. Türkiye time. USDC circulation, reserve income and payments to distribution partners will be among the key figures to watch.Hut 8 will review its results at 4:30 p.m. on the same day. Investors will focus on Bitcoin production, the company’s energy portfolio and investments in AI data centers.Core Scientific will hold its earnings call on November 5 at 4:30 p.m. Türkiye time. TeraWulf will follow on November 6 at 4:00 p.m.Mining operations and high-density data center contracts will stand out in both companies’ results.Devcon will begin in MumbaiThe Ethereum Foundation will hold Devcon 8 in Mumbai from November 3 to 6. The program will focus on protocol engineering, privacy, governance and decentralized applications.ETHGlobal Mumbai will take place in the same city from November 5 to 7. The hackathon will give developers an opportunity to build new Ethereum applications during Devcon week.Bitcoin Amsterdam will take place at the SugarFactory on November 5–6. The program will bring together capital allocators, Bitcoin developers and European policymakers.Hong Kong FinTech Week will run from November 2 to 6. Cosmoverse’s Hong Kong Digital Asset Summit will also take place on November 5–6, focusing on institutional digital assets and tokenization.This week’s 46-event crypto calendarAll times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.November 2, 1:00 p.m.: AMZNX, COINX and METAX trading begins on KuCoin.November 2, 2:00 p.m.: INTCX and NVDAX trading begins on KuCoin.November 2, 4:00 p.m.: Cipher Digital’s third-quarter earnings call.November 2, 6:00 p.m.: US ISM manufacturing PMI; forecast 54.7, previous 54.5.November 2: Approximately $102.6 million in BTW unlocks.November 2–4: Coinbase’s AERO and VELO migration.November 2–6: Hong Kong FinTech Week.November 3, 6:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia interest-rate decision.November 3, 7:30 a.m.: RBA press conference.November 3, 11:00 a.m.: KuCoin closes deposits for 23 tokens.November 3, 6:00 p.m.: US JOLTS job openings for September.November 3: US midterm elections.November 3, 9:15 p.m.: ENS Governor Nexus Update vote concludes.November 3–6: Devcon 8 Mumbai.Around November 3: Binance’s estimated publication date for its complete zero-knowledge proof of reserves.November 4, 11:30 a.m.: Riksbank interest-rate decision.November 4, 1:00 p.m.: Riksbank press conference.November 4, 1:00 p.m.: Flash euro-area inflation for October.November 4, 4:00 p.m.: Circle’s third-quarter earnings call.November 4, 4:00 p.m.: Horizen L3 bridge closes.November 4, 4:15 p.m.: US ADP private-sector employment report.November 4, 4:30 p.m.: Hut 8’s third-quarter earnings call.November 4, 4:30 p.m.: US trade balance for September.November 4, 6:00 p.m.: US ISM services PMI.November 4: Estimated $31.6 million MMT unlock.November 5, 11:00 a.m.: KuCoin removes 23 tokens from its spot market.November 5, noon: Norges Bank interest-rate decision.November 5, 3:00 p.m.: Bank of England interest-rate decision.November 5, 3:30 p.m.: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference.November 5, 4:30 p.m.: US weekly initial jobless claims.November 5, 4:30 p.m.: US third-quarter productivity and labor costs.November 5, 4:30 p.m.: Core Scientific’s third-quarter earnings call.November 5, 9:00 p.m.: Base Denim mainnet upgrade.After 9:00 p.m. on November 5: Horizen L3 stops processing transactions.November 5–6: Bitcoin Amsterdam.November 5–6: Hong Kong Digital Asset Summit.November 5–7: ETHGlobal Mumbai.November 6, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit ends support for selected USDC and USDT networks.November 6, 1:00 p.m.: Bitget removes six spot pairs.November 6, 4:00 p.m.: TeraWulf’s third-quarter earnings call.November 6, 4:30 p.m.: US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and wage data.November 6, 6:00 p.m.: Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.November 6: Monthly eligibility date for HYPE allocated to core contributors.November 7, 11:00 a.m.: OKX ends withdrawals for GODS, PRCL and DUCK.Late November 7–November 8: Approximately $23.9 million STABLE supply event.November 8: Approximately $14.4 million AVAX unlock.The US election results, Friday’s employment report and central banks’ response to energy-driven inflation could determine the market’s direction. Binance withdrawal activity and its reserve replenishment process will remain the most important crypto-specific confidence indicators.
Bitcoin failed to hold its gains following the Fed’s decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks. After trading above $81,000 on the evening of October 28, the price fell below $80,000 on the morning of October 29. A subsequent recovery pushed it back above that level.The Fed’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%–4%, alongside Warsh’s message that officials would wait for more data, initially offered modest support to markets. However, Bitcoin gave back its earlier gains as selling intensified in the morning.Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 in morning tradingBitcoin rose to approximately $81,100 during Warsh’s press conference. Meanwhile, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield declined from 4.78% to 4.73%. Bitcoin continued trading above $81,300 after the U.S. session.However, the price turned lower in the early hours of October 29. Morning data showed Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading range stretching from $79,636 to $81,698. The gap between the period’s highest and lowest prices therefore exceeded $2,000. At approximately noon Turkish time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,152. Its 24-hour decline reached 1.54%. Although the price reclaimed the $80,000 threshold, it remained below the previous evening’s levels.The chart also showed that the recovery following the sharp decline remained limited. Bitcoin approached $80,500 later in the morning before encountering renewed selling pressure. Trading subsequently concentrated around $80,000.Fed holds rates steady as two officials favor a hikeThe Federal Open Market Committee approved the rate decision in a 10–2 vote. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favored a 25-basis-point increase.The policy statement emphasized that economic activity was expanding at a strong pace while inflation remained elevated. The committee said additional information would help it determine the appropriate policy stance to return inflation to its 2% target. The October meeting therefore ended with a pause following September’s rate increase.Warsh highlights changes in financial conditionsWarsh said financing conditions had tightened for some businesses and households since the September decision. He added that market participants had become more selective in allocating capital. However, he stopped short of describing overall financial conditions as “tight.”The Fed chair offered a positive assessment of employment conditions. However, he stressed the importance of preventing rising energy prices from spreading to other parts of the economy. He said inflation expectations needed to remain anchored and reiterated officials’ readiness to act when necessary.During the question-and-answer session, Warsh said the Fed’s policies were beginning to produce results. Still, he cautioned that officials had not yet reached firm conclusions. He said the data-rich period ahead would provide greater clarity for monetary policy.December rate expectations remain in focus for cryptoThe decision to hold rates steady did not signal a shift toward expectations of a rate cut. Immediately after the announcement, CME FedWatch data put the probability of a 25-basis-point increase in December at approximately 86%. That compared with around 78% a day earlier.For the crypto market, the picture points to a modest price recovery alongside expectations of persistently high interest rates. Warsh’s wait-for-data approach provided short-term relief. Meanwhile, rising oil prices and continued inflation pressures remained among the factors limiting investors’ appetite for risk.
Bitcoin traded around $81,000 ahead of the Fed decision, while major altcoins also recovered. Crypto investors turned their attention to how the US central bank’s messaging could shape risk appetite for the rest of the year.In morning trading, Bitcoin rose approximately 2% to just below $82,000. At the time of writing, it is trading around $81,424. Ethereum gained around 2% to move above $2,350, while Solana posted a similar increase to reach approximately $102.Altcoins Recover Ahead of the Fed DecisionXRP and Dogecoin gained approximately 3%. Zcash climbed 8% to around $1,320, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token rose roughly 5% to trade near $81.BNB gained around 1%, while TRX advanced less than 1%. The rebound, following Bitcoin’s weekend decline to approximately $79,000, showed buying spreading across crypto assets ahead of the decision.Following the Fed announcement, investors will watch whether Bitcoin holds its gains and whether Ethereum and other major altcoins sustain their momentum.Interest Rates Expected to Remain UnchangedThe Fed decision will be announced today at 9:00 p.m. Turkish time, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 9:30 p.m. According to the official schedule, this meeting will not include new economic forecasts or interest rate projections.The central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% in September. The prevailing expectation for October is that rates will remain at this level.CME FedWatch data priced in a 93.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged.For crypto assets, one key consideration will be how long the current rate stays in place. Elevated borrowing costs can affect leverage and the capital investors allocate to risk assets, making the prospect of further tightening a closely watched issue.Liquidations Draw Attention in Leveraged TradingMeanwhile, market data showed approximately $175 million in crypto positions liquidated over the past 24 hours. Short positions accounted for most liquidations, while open interest in Bitcoin futures increased by 0.65%. The closure of positions betting on falling prices can create additional buying pressure during a rally. Assessing the strength of a price increase therefore requires looking at both spot demand and moves driven by the unwinding of leveraged positions.Coinbase Institutional also highlighted Bitcoin’s sensitivity to interest rate expectations in its October 16 assessment. The firm noted that Treasury yields rose following strong inflation data, while Bitcoin fell from approximately $83,800 to below $82,000.Which Signals Will Matter After the Decision?Following the Fed decision, the initial focus will be on how much room the policy statement leaves for further rate increases. Crypto markets could face selling pressure if Warsh describes inflation pressures as persistent and reinforces the prospect of additional tightening.A more cautious approach that emphasizes monitoring incoming data could soften investors’ rate expectations. These are potential scenarios that depend on the tone of the announcement; leaving rates unchanged alone does not guarantee a Bitcoin rally.Whether Ethereum and Solana follow Bitcoin’s moves around $81,000 will indicate how broadly the market is responding. Changes in trading volume and open interest will also help investors assess whether new positions or the closure of existing trades are driving the move.The statement released at 9:00 p.m. and the press conference half an hour later could trigger different price reactions. Investors will therefore watch whether the market’s initial direction holds as Warsh answers questions.
Bitcoin started the week of October 26–November 1 at around $80,100. Ether was trading near $2,320 at the time of writing. The Fed’s interest-rate decision and US inflation data are at the center of the market’s attention. Balancer’s transition to withdrawal mode, corporate earnings and network upgrades will also shape the week.Fed decision will arrive before the PCE reportThe Federal Reserve will hold its penultimate meeting of the year on October 27–28. Its official calendar shows the decision arriving on Wednesday, October 28, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will begin at 9:30 p.m. Of the 100 economists surveyed by Reuters, 94 expect the target rate to remain at 3.75%–4%.The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. Investors will now focus on any signals about the December meeting.The PCE report will arrive one day after the decision. According to the BEA calendar, the data will be released on Thursday, October 29, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time.Annual PCE inflation stood at 3.4% in August. The FactSet median forecast expects the September rate to climb to 3.7%.The forecast for core PCE inflation stands at 3.1%. A higher result could strengthen expectations for another rate increase in December.The first estimate of US third-quarter economic growth will be published at the same time. Personal income, spending and weekly jobless claims will also be released.The third-quarter Employment Cost Index will arrive on Friday, October 30, at 3:30 p.m. The report will show the latest level of wage-driven inflation pressure.Four other major central banks will announce decisionsThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its interest-rate decision on October 28 at 4:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Its current policy rate stands at 2.75%.Markets assign a probability of around 75% to an increase to 3%. The Bank of Canada will announce its decision later that day at 4:45 p.m.Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference will begin at 5:30 p.m. Of the 34 economists surveyed by Reuters, 19 expect a 25-basis-point increase, which would lift the policy rate to 2.50%.The European Central Bank will announce its decision on Thursday, October 29, at 4:15 p.m. Christine Lagarde’s press conference will begin at 4:45 p.m.Most economists expect the deposit rate to remain at 2.50%. Expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in December are gaining prominence.The Bank of Japan will meet on October 29–30. Its decision is expected on the morning of October 30, followed by a press conference at 9:30 a.m. Türkiye time.Reuters surveys point to the rate remaining at 1.25%. Markets are pricing in the possibility of an increase to 1.50% in December.Oil prices keep inflation risks aliveBrent crude traded near $110 on the first day of the week. The price reached $116.72 on Friday, its highest level since June 2022.The war with Iran and disruptions to energy shipments continue to keep the risk premium elevated. Another rise in oil prices could influence the Fed, ECB and BOJ decisions.The UK government will present its Autumn Budget on October 28. Tax and borrowing decisions could move sterling and global bond yields.Now, let's move on to crypto developments. The crypto market also faces a busy week of protocol, exchange and token-related developments:Balancer will enter withdrawal modeThe Balancer community approved an orderly wind-down of the protocol in September. BIP-928 calls for eligible pools to enter withdrawal mode on October 30.The bug bounty program will end on the same date. The final pause of the V3 Vault is scheduled for November 30.The community is also voting on BIP-934, BIP-935 and BIP-936. The results are expected to become final on October 27.BIP-934 proposes burning the DAO’s holdings of 10 million BEETS. The tokens have a nominal value of approximately $39,000.BIP-936 defines the technical onchain steps required for the shutdown. The plan will close pool factories and reduce protocol fees to zero.Authorized parties will be able to pause eligible pools on October 30. Withdrawal functions will remain available to users.BNB Chain, Hedera and Unichain will undergo upgradesBNB Chain will activate its Jenner upgrade on the testnet on October 28. The mainnet date will be announced later.Jenner will reserve 5% of block capacity for eligible payments. The upgrade will also introduce millisecond timestamps and CAS20 support.Hedera will upgrade to version 0.78.2 at 8:00 p.m. Türkiye time on the same day. Its status page warns of a service interruption lasting approximately 40 minutes.The Unichain mainnet will migrate to OP Enterprise infrastructure on October 29. Chain ID, balances, applications and contracts will remain unchanged.Optimism will take over sequencer, RPC and incident-management operations under the new structure. The migration will prepare Unichain for native interoperability across OP Stack chains.Lisk Chain will cease operations on October 31. The project has asked users to withdraw all assets by that date.Bridge transactions can take seven days, creating a risk of delays. The warning covers LSK, ETH, stablecoins and DeFi positions.Binance, Bybit and Bitget will delist trading pairsBinance will end spot trading for EPIC and QUICK on October 28 at 6:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Open orders and trading bots will close at the same time.The exchange will stop crediting deposits made after October 29 at 6:00 a.m. Withdrawals will remain available until December 28 at 6:00 a.m.Bybit will close HFT deposits on October 27 at 11:00 a.m. HFT/USDT spot trading will end on October 28 at 11:00 a.m.Bitget will remove the ZENT, MOODENG and HEI pairs on October 30 at 1:00 p.m. The exchange will keep withdrawals open until January 30, 2027.CFTC will discuss AI-driven tradingThe CFTC will begin its Frontier Forum meeting on October 28 at 8:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The program will focus on superintelligence and autonomous trading systems.The second session will cover AI agents that conduct financial transactions. Participants will discuss how existing CFTC rules apply to these activities.The meeting does not mark the introduction of a new regulation. It could still provide a policy signal for autonomous financial applications linked to crypto.M, FF and EIGEN unlocks stand outMemeCore will conduct the week’s largest token unlock. The project will release 56.11 million M tokens on November 1.Based on the token’s price on the morning of October 26, the unlock is worth approximately $56 million. The amount represents around 2.8% of the circulating supply.Falcon Finance will unlock 75 million FF on October 29 at 2:52 p.m. The tokens are currently worth approximately $7.42 million.Some calendars show a second distribution of 128.06 million FF on the same day. Investors should therefore monitor the project’s final distribution figures.EigenCloud will release 36.82 million EIGEN on October 31 at 4:15 p.m. The tokens are worth approximately $7.29 million at the current price.The distribution covers investors and early contributors. The amount equals approximately 3.77% of the circulating supply.ZORA will unlock 166.67 million tokens on October 30 at 5:46 a.m. The distribution, worth approximately $1.03 million, will go to the team, investors and treasury.Another 271.06 million GUN will unlock on the same day at 2:52 p.m. The approximately $550,000 distribution equals close to 7% of the circulating supply.Tracking sources publish different figures for SUI. DefiLlama shows 2.07 million SUI unlocking on October 31 at 5:31 a.m.Another calendar calculates a total of 6.07 million SUI across two separate distributions. Approximately $1.9 million therefore represents a conservative lower estimate.ZetaChain will unlock 44.26 million ZETA on November 1 at 12:58 p.m. The tokens are currently worth approximately $1.73 million.All dollar values were calculated using spot prices on the morning of October 26 and are approximate.Four crypto companies will report earningsGalaxy Digital will publish its third-quarter results before the market opens on October 27. Its conference call will begin at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time.Robinhood will report its results after US markets close on the same day. The management webcast will begin at midnight Türkiye time on October 28.Coinbase will publish its third-quarter results after the market closes on October 29. Its question-and-answer session will begin at midnight on October 30.Strategy will also report after the closing bell on October 29. Investors will follow the valuation of its Bitcoin holdings, tax effects and capital raises.The company’s webcast will begin at midnight Türkiye time on October 30.Events will begin in Buenos Aires and MumbaiLABITCONF will take place in Buenos Aires on October 30–31. The program will focus on Bitcoin, blockchain, artificial intelligence and Latin American markets.India Blockchain Week will begin in Mumbai on November 1. The two-day conference will cover DeFi, infrastructure, tokenization and institutional adoption.The DeFi Security Summit will also take place in Mumbai on November 1–2. Security researchers, auditors and protocol developers will attend the event.This week’s 45-event crypto calendarOctober 26, 10:11 a.m. Türkiye time: Approximately $1.11 million in WAL unlocks.October 26, 12:58 p.m.: Approximately $1.50 million in ALT unlocks.October 27, 3:30 p.m.: Galaxy Digital’s third-quarter earnings.October 27, 3:30 p.m.: US durable goods orders.October 27, 5:00 p.m.: US consumer confidence.October 27, 5:00 p.m.: US new home sales.October 27: Results of Balancer proposals BIP-934, BIP-935 and BIP-936.October 28, midnight: Robinhood’s third-quarter earnings webcast.October 28, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $518,000 in IOTA unlocks.October 28, 4:00 a.m.: Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest-rate decision.October 28, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit ends HFT trading.October 28, 6:00 a.m.: Binance ends EPIC and QUICK trading.October 28: BNB Chain’s Jenner testnet upgrade.October 28, 3:30 p.m.: US goods trade and wholesale inventory data.October 28, 4:45 p.m.: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision.October 28, 8:00 p.m.: CFTC Frontier Forum meeting.October 28, 8:00 p.m.: Hedera v0.78.2 mainnet upgrade.October 28, 9:00 p.m.: Fed interest-rate decision.October 28, 9:30 p.m.: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.October 28: UK Autumn Budget.October 29, 2:52 p.m.: At least 75 million FF unlocks.October 29, 3:30 p.m.: First estimate of US third-quarter GDP growth.October 29, 3:30 p.m.: US September PCE inflation.October 29, 3:30 p.m.: US weekly jobless claims.October 29, 4:15 p.m.: ECB interest-rate decision.October 29: Unichain’s migration to OP Enterprise infrastructure.October 30, midnight: Coinbase’s third-quarter earnings webcast.October 30, midnight: Strategy’s third-quarter earnings webcast.October 30, 4:23 a.m.: Approximately $1.58 million in ASTER unlocks.October 30, 5:46 a.m.: Approximately $1.03 million in ZORA unlocks.Morning of October 30: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision.October 30, 1:00 p.m.: Bitget removes three spot trading pairs.October 30, 2:52 p.m.: Approximately $550,000 in GUN unlocks.October 30, 3:30 p.m.: US Employment Cost Index.October 30, 4:45 p.m.: Chicago PMI.October 30: Balancer pools enter withdrawal mode.October 30–31: LABITCONF Buenos Aires.October 31, 4:00 a.m.: Puffer Gauge vote concludes.Morning of October 31: SUI token unlock.October 31, 4:15 p.m.: Approximately $7.29 million in EIGEN unlocks.October 31: Final day to withdraw assets from Lisk Chain.November 1: Approximately $56 million in M unlocks.November 1, 12:58 p.m.: Approximately $1.73 million in ZETA unlocks.November 1: India Blockchain Week begins.November 1: DeFi Security Summit begins.
Bitcoin started the week of October 19–25 at around $82,600. Ethereum was trading near $2,425 at the time of writing, while the crypto market focused on Solana’s Alpenglow transition, global PMI data and three central bank decisions. China’s economy expanded by 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, producing the week’s first published macroeconomic result. Growth exceeded the 4.4% forecast, although weakness in retail sales and property investment continued to limit the global demand outlook.Fed enters blackout period as PCE data moves to next weekFederal Reserve officials have entered the blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. No new Fed speech capable of materially changing the interest-rate outlook is scheduled for this week.Some economic calendars show PCE inflation and third-quarter growth data during the current week. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish both reports on October 29 at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time.The Fed will announce its rate decision on October 28 at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The chair’s press conference will begin at 9:30 p.m.Markets will assess housing data, jobless claims, global PMI results and oil prices before the meeting.Flash PMI data will offer growth and inflation signalsFlash PMI results for October will arrive on Friday, October 23. The euro-area composite PMI will be released at 11:00 a.m., followed by UK data at 11:30 a.m. and US manufacturing and services readings at 4:45 p.m. Türkiye time.Input costs and selling prices could prove as important as the headline readings. The UK services PMI slipped to 51.7 in September, while prices charged by companies increased at the fastest pace in four months.US housing starts and building permits for September will be released on Tuesday, October 20, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Weekly initial jobless claims will follow on Thursday, October 22, at the same time.Three central banks will announce rate decisionsThe Hungarian National Bank will announce its policy decision on October 20. Economists expect rates to remain unchanged, while energy costs and the forint’s performance will shape the risk assessment in the policy statement.The Bank of Korea will meet on October 21. The main market scenario points to an unchanged rate, while moves in the won and regional technology stocks could spill over into crypto markets.The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye will announce its decision on Thursday, October 22, at 2:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Market forecasts center on a reduction in the policy rate from 37% to 36%; this figure represents the pre-meeting consensus rather than a published decision.Canada’s September inflation data will arrive on October 20 at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. UK inflation will follow on October 21 at 9:00 a.m., while the country’s retail sales report will be released on Friday, October 23, at 9:00 a.m.Oil prices keep pressure on interest ratesBrent crude started the week near $108 per barrel. Expectations that sanctions on Russia could be eased pushed futures prices lower, while risks around the Strait of Hormuz kept tanker and insurance costs elevated.The transmission of energy costs into transportation and food prices could delay central bank rate cuts. High bond yields and a strong dollar could also create liquidity pressure for Bitcoin and altcoins.Comment period closes for the SEC’s crypto proposalThe comment period for the SEC’s “Regulation Crypto Assets” proposal will close on October 20. The proposal introduces a separate disclosure regime for crypto asset offerings and a conditional safe harbor for determining whether certain projects constitute investment contracts.The draft contains two offering exemptions: one covering up to $5 million over four years and another covering up to $75 million over 12 months. The end of the comment period will not finalize the proposal, as the SEC must review the feedback and hold a separate vote.Solana Alpenglow will activate on mainnetSolana plans to activate its Alpenglow consensus system on Wednesday, October 21, at approximately 6:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The transition will occur during mainnet epoch 1,064, although the exact time could shift by several minutes depending on block production.Alpenglow aims to reduce finality from approximately 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. The change primarily updates how the network reaches agreement on blocks rather than altering the transaction execution layer.Validators must switch to a compatible client based on Agave 4.3.0. Firedancer and Frankendancer clients will not be supported during the initial transition.Filecoin, Aero and XRP Ledger enter the calendarBinance will suspend Filecoin deposits and withdrawals on October 19 at 2:59 p.m. Türkiye time. The network upgrade and hard fork are expected to occur at block height 6,470,279 at approximately 3:59 p.m., while spot trading will remain available.The Aero protocol, created through the merger of Aerodrome and Velodrome, will launch on October 22 at 3:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Users will be able to convert veAERO balances into sAERO at a one-to-one ratio, while each VELO will convert into 0.044 AERO.The fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment on XRP Ledger is expected to activate on October 23 at approximately 12:34 p.m. Türkiye time. The date remains conditional because the 14-day countdown will reset if validator support falls below the required 80% threshold.Upbit and Bitget will end trading supportUpbit will end trading support for ICON on October 19 at 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange will cancel open ICX orders, while users should check the separate deadline for withdrawals.Bitget will stop allowing new positions in the EPICUSDT perpetual futures contract on October 20 at 7:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange will delist the contract at 10:00 a.m. and settle remaining positions under its settlement rules.Bitget will also remove DRIFT, RVV, DOG, SWEAT, ICX, PUMPBTC, GAIB and RTX spot pairs on October 23 at 1:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Withdrawals for the affected assets will remain available until January 23, 2027, at 1:00 p.m.No high-profile new spot token listing has been confirmed on a major exchange for the week. Aero’s launch represents the main development involving a new product and token merger.Arbitrum and Cardano votes will concludeCardano’s stake pool operator poll on increasing the target number of stake pools from 500 to 1,000 will end on October 21. The result will provide community feedback for future governance decisions without automatically changing the protocol parameter.Four Arbitrum proposals will close on October 22. They cover a 1,700 ETH treasury transfer, layer-1 pricing ahead of Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade, a voting recovery system and the adoption of USDG as a strategic initiative.ZRO, TON and AVAX supplies will expandLayerZero is expected to release approximately 23.6 million ZRO on October 20. Based on the token’s $1.89 price at the time of writing, the unlock is worth approximately $44.7 million.The TON Believers Fund schedule includes an unlock worth approximately $49 million on October 23. Avalanche will release 1.67 million AVAX from its foundation allocation on October 24 at around 11:20 p.m. Türkiye time, giving the unlock an approximate value of $16.3 million at the current price.Tracking platforms display different times for the KAITO unlock, ranging from the evening of October 19 to October 20. The approximately 17.6 million KAITO involved are worth around $4.9 million at the current price.Calendar providers also show different dates for the Humanity Protocol unlock, listing either October 23 or October 25. The approximately 266 million H tokens are worth around $15.1 million based on the price at the time of writing.Sources report between 88.9 million and 227.8 million XPL for the scheduled unlock. At the current price of $0.077, its approximate value ranges from $6.8 million to $17.5 million, depending on the allocations included.All dollar figures are approximate and based on current spot prices. Token tracking platforms classify linear distributions and same-day allocations differently, creating discrepancies in the H and XPL figures in particular.Tesla earnings and Plan ₿ Forum enter focusNo major publicly traded crypto company has confirmed an earnings release for this week. Coinbase and Strategy will report on October 29, after the current calendar period.Bitcoin holder Tesla will release its third-quarter results after the US market closes on October 21. Due to the time difference, the company’s conference call will begin on Thursday, October 22, at 12:30 a.m. Türkiye time.Plan ₿ Week in Lugano will host educational, developer and Bitcoin community events from October 19 to 25. The main Plan ₿ Forum will take place on October 23–24, focusing on nation-state Bitcoin adoption, financial freedom and payment infrastructure.This week’s 38-event crypto calendarOctober 19, 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time: Upbit ends ICX trading support.October 19, 2:59 p.m.: Binance suspends FIL deposits and withdrawals.October 19, approximately 3:59 p.m.: Filecoin network upgrade and hard fork.October 19–25: Lugano Plan ₿ Week.October 19–20: Approximately $4.9 million KAITO unlock.October 20, 7:00 a.m.: Bitget stops allowing new EPICUSDT positions.October 20, 10:00 a.m.: Bitget delists the EPICUSDT perpetual contract.October 20: Hungarian National Bank interest-rate decision.October 20: Comment period closes for the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal.October 20: Approximately $44.7 million ZRO unlock.October 20, 3:30 p.m.: US housing starts and building permits.October 20, 3:30 p.m.: Canada’s September inflation data.October 21, 9:00 a.m.: UK inflation data for September.Morning of October 21: Bank of Korea interest-rate decision.October 21, approximately 6:00 p.m.: Solana Alpenglow transition.October 21: Cardano’s stake pool target poll concludes.October 22, 12:30 a.m.: Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call.October 22, 3:00 a.m.: Aero protocol launches.October 22, 2:00 p.m.: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye interest-rate decision.October 22, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.October 22: Arbitrum’s 1,700 ETH transfer vote concludes.October 22: Arbitrum’s layer-1 pricing proposal closes.October 22: Arbitrum’s voting recovery system proposal closes.October 22: Arbitrum’s USDG strategic initiative proposal closes.October 23, 9:00 a.m.: UK retail sales for September.October 23, 11:00 a.m.: Flash euro-area PMI data for October.October 23, 11:30 a.m.: Flash UK PMI data for October.October 23, approximately 12:34 p.m.: Target activation time for XRP Ledger’s fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment.October 23, 1:00 p.m.: Bitget removes eight spot trading pairs.October 23, 4:45 p.m.: Flash US PMI data for October.October 23: Approximately $6.3 million SOON unlock.October 23: Approximately $49 million supply unlock under the TON Believers Fund schedule.October 23–24: Lugano Plan ₿ Forum.October 24, around 12:00 p.m.: Approximately $6.9 million SOSO unlock.October 24, approximately 11:20 p.m.: Approximately $16.3 million AVAX unlock.October 25, 3:00 a.m. according to one calendar provider: Approximately $15.1 million H unlock.October 25, approximately 10:00 a.m.: Approximately $5 million COAI unlock.October 25, approximately 3:00 p.m.: XPL supply unlock, with an estimated value of $6.8 million to $17.5 million.Solana’s Alpenglow transition will be the week’s most significant crypto-specific technical event. The broader market direction could depend more heavily on Friday’s PMI data, central bank decisions, Brent crude near $108 and rate expectations ahead of the next Fed meeting.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.3% in September from the previous month, exceeding expectations. Annual producer inflation reached 6.3%. The figures brought inflation pressures back into focus for Federal Reserve policy, with implications for Bitcoin and altcoins.The report, released on October 15, showed the largest monthly increase in producer prices since March 2022. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.6% rise. The monthly increase was therefore more than double that forecast.Weekly initial jobless claims, released the same day, came in at 199,000. While the labor market figure was close to expectations, producer inflation delivered the most significant surprise.US PPI Data Shows Persistent Inflation PressureAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for final demand goods rose 2.6%. Services prices increased 0.8% month over month. The breakdown showed that price pressures persisted across both goods and services.PPI measures changes in the prices producers receive for their goods and services. The report therefore offers early signals about corporate pricing trends. However, increases in producer prices do not always pass through to consumer prices immediately or at the same rate.Companies can absorb some cost increases depending on demand and competition. Businesses that pass higher prices on to their customers, meanwhile, can contribute to persistent consumer inflation.For the crypto market, the main connection runs through monetary policy. Persistent inflation can make it harder for the conditions needed for rate cuts to emerge. This creates an unfavorable scenario for investors expecting a rapid easing of liquidity conditions.The Fed’s Response Matters for BitcoinThe Fed uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE, to track its inflation target. Some components of the PPI report also feed into that measure. As a result, the report’s underlying details can influence expectations for upcoming inflation releases.An extended period of high interest rates can make interest-bearing assets more attractive. It can also limit demand for riskier investments by keeping borrowing costs elevated.Bitcoin and altcoins are among the assets that can be affected by these conditions. Changes in interest rate expectations can amplify price swings, particularly when leveraged trading is heavy. However, this relationship does not guarantee that prices will move in the same direction after every inflation release.Expectations formed before the announcement also shape the market’s response. If investors have already priced in high inflation, a strong reading may trigger only a limited reaction. An unexpected deterioration, however, can have a more pronounced effect on risk appetite.At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading lower, partly reflecting the impact of the previous day’s inflation data. Jobless Claims Deliver Little SurpriseThe number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 199,000. With the previous week’s figure revised to 198,000, the weekly increase was limited to 1,000. Reuters reported that claims remained consistent with a low level of layoffs.Low claims do not point to a sudden deterioration in the labor market. However, weekly applications are not a direct measure of total employment or new hiring.The Fed considers inflation and employment data together. The absence of a significant labor market slowdown may reduce the need for rapid rate cuts to support the economy. Combined with elevated inflation, this could strengthen the case for maintaining tight monetary policy.For the crypto market, upcoming PCE data, Fed communications and Treasury yields will be key to assessing the outlook. The dollar’s performance will also provide additional signals about global risk appetite.The September PPI report points to greater interest rate and liquidity risks for Bitcoin. How much those risks affect prices will depend on Fed expectations alongside fund flows specific to the crypto market.
The crypto market is focused on September’s US inflation data, due today at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. With Bitcoin trading below $84,000 ahead of the release, investors will watch how four key indicators shape the Fed’s interest rate outlook. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ calendar confirms the October 14 release.Forecasts suggest headline inflation could accelerate while monthly core inflation slows. This divergence could trigger reversals in Bitcoin and altcoins after the initial price reaction.What Are the Expectations for US Inflation?A forecast table citing The Wall Street Journal and Nick Timiraos puts the median monthly CPI estimate at 0.58%. The annual inflation forecast stands at 3.6%.For core CPI, which excludes food and energy, the median monthly estimate is 0.22%. The same table puts annual core inflation expectations at 2.4%.IndicatorSeptember Forecast, Shared TableAugust, Table ValueMonthly CPI0.58%0.40%Annual CPI3.6%3.4%Monthly Core CPI0.22%0.29%Annual Core CPI2.4%2.4%Rounded to one decimal place, the monthly forecasts correspond to approximately 0.6% and 0.2%. However, a survey cited by MarketWatch puts annual core inflation expectations at 2.5%, highlighting a small difference between sources.Institutional forecasts in the table also split into two groups on annual core inflation. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs expect 2.5%, while JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and UBS forecast 2.4%.Bitcoin Trades Below $84,000 Ahead of the ReleaseAt the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $83,400. For Bitcoin, the extent to which the figures deviate from expectations matters. An increase in annual CPI from the previous month may not trigger a fresh selloff if markets already anticipate it.Similarly, slower monthly core inflation does not guarantee a rally. Investor positioning ahead of the release and the bond market’s response could influence the strength of the move.How Could Above-Forecast Inflation Affect Crypto?Core CPI exceeding forecasts could strengthen expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy. In that scenario, rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could weigh on demand for crypto assets.Alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum and less liquid altcoins could also face pressure. In markets with heavy leveraged positioning, liquidations could amplify the initial price move.Conversely, below-forecast core inflation could support expectations of easing interest rate pressure. A decline in the dollar and Treasury yields could create more favorable conditions for Bitcoin and altcoins.These scenarios outline the potential channels through which the data could affect markets. ETF demand, spot trading volume and crypto-specific developments could also influence prices.Core Figures Will Matter Beyond the Headline ReadingHigh headline CPI alongside low core CPI could send a mixed signal. Investors would then examine whether price increases remain concentrated in energy or extend more broadly into services.Expectations point to gasoline and food costs pushing headline inflation higher in September. Distinguishing energy-driven increases from broader price pressures will therefore matter when interpreting the report.After 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time, investors will watch whether movements in the dollar and Treasury yields accompany Bitcoin’s initial reaction. The subsequent US stock market opening could offer further clues about the persistence of risk appetite.If the four indicators point in different directions, the initial price move may not last. As the report’s details become clearer, investors could reassess their Fed expectations and crypto positions.
Crypto this week began with Bitcoin trading at around $83,300 and Ethereum near $2,555. US inflation, comments from Fed officials, oil prices above $100 and Singapore’s stablecoin regulatory process could shape the market’s direction. The crypto calendar features Shardeum’s mainnet upgrade, the first listings of CENT, Sonic’s token burn and the final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF. Supply events involving seven tokens, including STRK, ARB, CRO and DBR, will also enter focus.US inflation could reshape Fed expectationsThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September consumer inflation data on Wednesday, October 14, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. A Reuters poll forecasts annual headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.5%.These figures are market forecasts rather than published results. A headline reading above expectations could strengthen the view that higher energy costs are passing through to consumer prices more rapidly.Producer prices, retail sales and weekly jobless claims will arrive on Thursday, October 15, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Retail sales increased by 1.2% in August, making the September report important for assessing whether consumer spending retained its momentum.Import and export prices will be released on Friday, October 16, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Industrial production will follow at 4:15 p.m.Futures markets assign an approximately 81% probability to the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting. Employment growth of only 29,000 in September weakened expectations for an October increase, while persistent inflation could bring December back into focus.Fed officials and the Beige Book enter focusFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will discuss the economic outlook in Istanbul on Tuesday, October 13, at 11:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Waller will participate in a separate session on artificial intelligence on October 14 at 10:45 a.m.Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will discuss regulatory and supervisory policy on October 14 at 12:40 p.m. Her speech in Bangkok falls on Friday, October 16, at 5:55 a.m. in Türkiye due to the time difference.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will begin their discussion in Bangkok on October 16 at 6:30 a.m. Türkiye time. The times appear on the Fed’s official calendar.The Fed will also publish its Beige Book on October 14 at 9:00 p.m. The report will provide updated assessments of prices, wages, employment and demand from businesses across the United States.Singapore reaches a stablecoin consultation deadlineThe Monetary Authority of Singapore will announce its monetary policy decision and macroeconomic assessment on October 14. All 10 economists in a Reuters poll expect MAS, which conducts policy through its exchange-rate band, to tighten its stance further.The week’s clearest crypto regulatory deadline arrives on October 16. MAS will close its consultation on legislative amendments to the Payment Services Act that would implement Singapore’s stablecoin framework.The proposal covers reserve value stability, capital requirements, redemption at par and disclosure obligations. MAS is also considering an interest ban for regulated stablecoins, stress-testing requirements and orderly recovery and wind-down plans.No new vote has been scheduled this week for the CLARITY Act in the United States. The Senate’s September 15 procedural vote failed to reach the required 60 votes, so it is excluded from the upcoming calendar.Oil remains above $100Brent crude started the week at approximately $103.30 a barrel, while US crude traded near $90.30. President Donald Trump’s announcement of an energy infrastructure ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine pushed prices lower, although Moscow has yet to confirm an agreement.Tanker incidents and intensifying Houthi attacks in the Middle East continue to support the supply-risk premium. Another rise in oil could affect crypto liquidity through inflation expectations and the Fed’s interest-rate outlook.Shardeum will upgrade its mainnet to v1.1.0Shardeum will activate its governance-approved v1.1.0 upgrade on Tuesday, October 13, at approximately 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The transition will begin at block 7,927,860, so the exact time may change with the pace of block production.The upgrade will synchronize the network with Cosmos EVM v0.6.3, apply security fixes and complete a state migration. Shardeum expects the network to pause for one to two hours and recommends that exchanges suspend SHM deposits and withdrawals at around 5:00 a.m.Unichain will migrate its testnet to OP Enterprise infrastructure on October 13. The chain ID, contracts and user balances will remain unchanged, while the mainnet migration is scheduled for October 29.Sonic’s final claim deadline for approximately 32.69 million S falls on October 15. Tokens left unclaimed after the deadline may be permanently burned, with the final amount depending on claims submitted before the cutoff.A Sky ecosystem governance package approved on October 8 will become executable on October 12 at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The package includes the launch of the stUSDS Keeper, treasury adjustments, reward changes and the burning of certain SKY tokens held in the Pause Proxy.CENT begins trading on three exchangesIncentiv’s CENT token will begin trading against USDT on Gate, KuCoin and MEXC on Monday, October 12, at noon Türkiye time. Gate’s HODLer event, which will distribute 34,482,759 CENT, ends at 11:00 a.m.Upbit will terminate all Ravencoin trading pairs on October 12 at 9:00 a.m. Open RVN orders will no longer be executed after the cutoff.October 14 will be the final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF, BWOW, on NYSE Arca. Investors who retain their shares will receive a cash payment based on the fund’s October 21 net asset value, with liquidation scheduled for October 22.CRO and ARB lead the week’s token unlocksCronos has the largest supply event of the week by dollar value. Approximately 1.17 billion CRO allocated to the strategic reserve will unlock at around 4:03 a.m. Türkiye time on October 17, representing roughly $72.7 million at the spot price recorded during preparation.Arbitrum will release approximately 92.65 million ARB on October 16 at 3:00 p.m. The tokens are allocated to the Arbitrum DAO Treasury and are worth approximately $18.2 million at the current price.Starknet will unlock 127 million STRK on October 15 at 3:00 a.m., worth approximately $13.6 million. At 3:00 p.m. on the same day, 55.56 million SEI allocated to the ecosystem reserve will create around $3.9 million in additional supply.deBridge will release 618 million DBR from its community and launch allocation at around 3:00 a.m. on October 17. The tokens have an estimated current value of $13.1 million.Approximately $7.4 million in STBL and $5.8 million in PENGU will unlock at around the same time. All dollar values were calculated using spot prices available during preparation, remain approximate and do not indicate that recipients will immediately sell their tokens.Four events and the earnings season will be monitoredTABConf, which focuses on Bitcoin development, will take place in Atlanta from October 12 to 15. The program covers Lightning, Bitcoin privacy, security and post-quantum cryptography.Paradigm Frontiers will run in San Francisco from October 12 to 14, while EDCON will take place in Kuala Lumpur on October 17–18. Ethereum.org’s current event calendar confirms both dates.Blockchain Africa Conference will be held in Johannesburg on October 15, focusing on stablecoins, tokenization and South Africa’s COFI regulatory framework. The IMF will also release its updated World Economic Outlook on October 13 during the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings.No confirmed earnings date falls within October 12–18 for Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood, Strategy or the major publicly traded crypto miners. Robinhood will report its third-quarter results on October 27, placing it outside this week’s calendar.The US earnings season beginning with JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs will still matter for broader risk appetite. TSMC is also expected to report a record quarter, supported by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.This week’s 35-event crypto calendarOctober 12, 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time: Upbit ends trading support for RVN.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on Gate.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on KuCoin.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on MEXC.October 12, 5:00 p.m.: Sky’s governance package becomes executable.October 12–14: Paradigm Frontiers.October 12–15: TABConf 8.October 13, approximately 9:00 a.m.: Shardeum v1.1.0 mainnet upgrade.October 13: Unichain testnet migrates to OP Enterprise.October 13, 11:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller discusses the economic outlook.October 13: IMF World Economic Outlook report.October 14: Monetary Authority of Singapore policy decision.October 14, 10:45 a.m.: Waller participates in an artificial intelligence discussion.October 14, 12:40 p.m.: Michelle Bowman discusses regulation and supervision.October 14, 3:30 p.m.: US consumer inflation for September.October 14: Final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF.October 14, 9:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve Beige Book.October 15, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $13.6 million STRK unlock.October 15, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $3.9 million SEI supply release.October 15: Sonic’s final claim and burn threshold for 32.69 million S.October 15: Blockchain Africa Conference.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US producer prices for September.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US retail sales for September.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US weekly jobless claims.October 16, 5:55 a.m.: Michelle Bowman’s Bangkok speech.October 16, 6:30 a.m.: Kevin Warsh and Kristalina Georgieva discussion.October 16: MAS stablecoin consultation deadline.October 16, 3:30 p.m.: US import and export prices.October 16, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $18.2 million ARB unlock.October 16, 4:15 p.m.: US industrial production and capacity utilization.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $13.1 million DBR unlock.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $7.4 million STBL unlock.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $5.8 million PENGU unlock.October 17, approximately 4:03 a.m.: Approximately $72.7 million CRO unlock.October 17–18: EDCON 2026 in Kuala Lumpur.Wednesday’s US consumer inflation report will be the week’s main price catalyst. MAS’s stablecoin rules, the Shardeum migration, the CENT launch and elevated oil prices will shape both crypto-specific developments and the broader market outlook.
Crypto this week began with Bitcoin trading at around $85,500 and Ether near $2,700. The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, the Reserve Bank of India’s interest-rate decision and oil prices above $100 form the core of the macroeconomic agenda.The crypto calendar features approximately $337.5 million in scheduled HYPE unlocks and $40.9 million in ENA unlocks. Binance, Bybit and Robinhood will discontinue several products, while three validator-dependent XRP Ledger upgrades could take effect.Fed minutes will shape expectations for OctoberThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16. All members supported the decision, which marked the US central bank’s first rate increase since 2023.Minutes from the meeting will be published on Wednesday, October 7, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Investors will examine how policymakers assessed energy-driven inflation risks and whether they disagreed over the timing of the next increase.US nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September. The result fell well below the Reuters poll forecast of around 90,000 and reduced the market-implied probability of an October rate increase to approximately 18%–20%.The US services outlook will come into focus with the ISM services PMI on Monday, October 5, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The index is expected to ease to 55 from 55.4 in August, with a reading above 50 indicating continued expansion.The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment index will follow on Friday, October 9, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The consensus forecast points to a decline from approximately 48.2 in September to 47.7.India is expected to raise interest ratesThe Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet from October 5 to 7. Its interest-rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, October 7, at 7:30 a.m. Türkiye time.Thirty-five of the 61 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the RBI to raise its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. Such a decision would mark the central bank’s first increase in nearly four years.High oil prices, broader inflationary pressure and weakness in the rupee support expectations for tighter policy. The decision could influence emerging-market currencies and global risk appetite.The European Central Bank will publish the account of its September 9–10 meeting on Thursday, October 8, at 2:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Investors will look for discussions about energy prices, growth risks and the direction of upcoming rate decisions.Canada’s September employment report will arrive on Friday, October 9, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Statistics Canada says the report will reflect labour-market conditions during the week of September 13–19.Oil remains above $100Brent crude started the week at around $101.60 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded near $90.10. The G7’s decision to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel from emergency reserves has limited prices, although attacks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support a geopolitical risk premium.Middle Eastern crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on several days, even as authorities recorded at least seven new attacks on vessels in the region. Persistently high energy costs could encourage central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.Oil-driven inflation can affect Bitcoin through interest rates and government bond yields. Markets will monitor the speed of the G7 reserve release and the security of Gulf shipping routes.Russia’s crypto registration rules take effectThe Bank of Russia’s new registration regulations for the cryptocurrency market take effect on October 5. Crypto exchanges, digital depositories and operators of systems used to issue digital financial rights will need to join the relevant official registers.The rules establish qualification requirements for executives, the necessary application documents and the central bank’s registration process. Existing market participants will also have access to a simplified application route.In the US, the investment adviser and fund custody proposal announced last week does not have a new effective date within the coming seven days. The comment period for the SEC’s broader Regulation Crypto Assets proposal will remain open until October 20.Binance, Bybit and Robinhood will discontinue tradingBinance will automatically settle and delist the PROMPTUSDT, PUMPBTCUSDT and 1000000BOBUSDT perpetual contracts on Monday, October 5, at noon Türkiye time. The exchange will prevent users from opening new positions in these contracts from 11:30 a.m.Bybit will close deposits for SCOR and AGI on October 7 at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Trading in the SCOR/USDT and AGI/USDT spot pairs, along with Convert support, will end on October 8 at 11:00 a.m.Robinhood Europe will disable sales of BERA, EOS, PAXG and TIA on Friday, October 9, at 10:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The platform will automatically sell remaining BERA and TIA balances at market prices because withdrawals are unavailable for these assets.EOS and PAXG withdrawals will remain available until October 14, placing the next stage of their delisting process outside this weekly calendar. No major new spot listing or high-profile token launch had been confirmed at the time of preparation.Three XRP Ledger upgrades could activateThe XRP Ledger’s PermissionDelegationV1_1 amendment could activate on Friday, October 9, at approximately 12:25 a.m. Türkiye time, provided validator support remains above the required threshold. The feature will let accounts delegate limited permissions without sharing the private keys controlling their funds.The projected activation time for fixBatchV1_2 is 5:12 p.m. on the same day. Servers that fail to upgrade to the security-focused xrpld 3.4.1 release could become amendment-blocked and lose synchronisation with the network.BatchV1_1 is expected to activate at around 5:46 p.m. Türkiye time. The feature will allow users to bundle and submit up to eight transactions together, enabling use cases such as atomic swaps.All three dates depend on validator support remaining above 80% for the full required period. If support falls to or below the threshold, the 14-day countdown will restart and the activation dates will change.HYPE and ENA supply will expandCurrent Tokenomist data show that HYPE and ENA account for most of the week’s major one-time token unlocks. All dollar values are approximate because they were calculated using spot prices available during preparation.Ethena will release approximately 172.7 million ENA to core contributors on October 5. At an ENA price of around $0.237, the unlock is worth approximately $40.9 million and represents about 1.88% of the reported supply measure.Hyperliquid’s scheduled HYPE unlock for core contributors on October 6 is worth approximately $337.5 million. A spot price near $90 puts the scheduled amount at around 3.75 million HYPE.Tokenomist displays a mismatch between the scheduled unlock and the broader committed vesting figure for the same event. This calendar uses the narrower $337.5 million scheduled value, while the amount that becomes claimable or moves on-chain could differ.Aerodrome will release approximately $3.53 million in AERO on October 8. Aptos’s roughly $9.13 million APT unlock on October 11 will be joined by approximately $4.29 million in PEAQ and $2.7 million in IO.The PEAQ unlock stands out with a reported ratio of 3.73%. The io.net schedule shows that approximately 15.88 million IO will become available on October 11.Applied Digital will report earningsApplied Digital, which has shifted from blockchain workloads toward artificial intelligence and high-performance data-centre infrastructure, will report its fiscal first-quarter results on October 7. The conference call will begin at midnight on Thursday, October 8, in Türkiye because of the time difference.The report covers the fiscal quarter that ended on August 31. Investors will monitor data-centre rental income, energy expenses, newly operational capacity and the company’s capital requirements.TOKEN2049 begins in SingaporeTOKEN2049 Singapore will take place at Marina Bay Sands on October 7–8. The programme will focus on crypto infrastructure, stablecoins, institutional capital, tokenisation and regulatory developments across Asia.The broader TOKEN2049 Week programme runs from October 5 to 11. CoinFerenceX will take place on October 5–6, Solana Summit Singapore on October 6 and RWA Summit Singapore on October 9.ETH Lagos will hold its conference and parallel hackathon from October 8 to 10. The event will bring together Ethereum developers and Web3 projects from across Africa.No separate binding, high-impact DAO vote with a confirmed deadline during the week was identified. Gitcoin’s proposal to lower the participation threshold for Snapshot votes from 2.5 million GTC to 1.5 million GTC remains at the forum discussion stage.This week’s 30-event crypto calendarAll times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.October 5: Russia’s registration rules for crypto-market entities take effect.October 5: Approximately $40.9 million in ENA unlocks.October 5, noon: Binance delists three perpetual contracts.October 5, 5:00 p.m.: US ISM services PMI.October 5–6: CoinFerenceX Singapore.October 6: Approximately $337.5 million in scheduled HYPE unlocks.October 6: Solana Summit Singapore.October 6, noon: Euro-area retail sales for August.October 6, 3:30 p.m.: US trade balance for August.October 7, 1:00 a.m.: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks.October 7, 7:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of India interest-rate decision.October 7, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit closes SCOR and AGI deposits.October 7–8: TOKEN2049 Singapore.October 7, 9:00 p.m.: Minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC meeting.October 8, midnight: Applied Digital earnings conference call.October 8: Approximately $3.53 million in AERO unlocks.October 8, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit ends SCOR and AGI spot trading.October 8, 2:30 p.m.: ECB minutes from its September meeting.October 8, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.October 8–10: ETH Lagos conference and hackathon.October 9, approximately 12:25 a.m.: XRP Ledger PermissionDelegationV1_1 activation.October 9, 3:30 p.m.: Canada’s September employment report.October 9, 5:00 p.m.: Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.October 9, approximately 5:12 p.m.: XRP Ledger fixBatchV1_2 activation.October 9, approximately 5:46 p.m.: XRP Ledger BatchV1_1 activation.October 9, 10:00 p.m.: Robinhood disables sales of BERA, EOS, PAXG and TIA.October 9: RWA Summit Singapore.October 11: Approximately $9.13 million in APT unlocks.October 11: Approximately $4.29 million in PEAQ unlocks.October 11: Approximately $2.7 million in IO unlocks.The scheduled HYPE release represents the week’s largest crypto-specific supply risk by dollar value. Fed minutes, the RBI’s decision, services-sector data and oil prices above $100 could have a greater influence on the direction of the wider market.
Bitcoin climbed toward $86,000 following the release of US inflation data. Below-forecast core PCE figures lowered expectations for another Fed interest rate hike.According to market data, Bitcoin gained approximately 2.4% following the announcement, trading near $86,000. However, it later retreated to just above $84,000, surrendering part of its initial gains. Consequently, US economic releases took center stage in the crypto market’s macroeconomic outlook. Investors assessed the inflation surprise alongside growth and employment figures.Bitcoin rises following PCE dataThe US core PCE price index increased 0.2% monthly in August. Its annual increase reached 3%.Forecasts had pointed to increases of 0.3% monthly and 3.3% annually. Therefore, both readings came in below market expectations.Meanwhile, the headline PCE price index rose 0.3% from the previous month. The Fed closely monitors PCE measures when assessing price pressures.Gains in traditional markets accompanied Bitcoin’s advance following the release. However, available data cannot attribute Bitcoin’s entire move to a single announcement.Alongside interest rate expectations, institutional demand and investor positioning also influence crypto prices. Therefore, the inflation release represented one important factor shaping the day’s trading.Shifting Fed expectations support cryptoFollowing the releases, markets priced roughly a 37% probability of an October Fed rate hike. Consequently, expectations for unchanged interest rates gained greater weight.The Fed’s September rate hike had increased the importance of incoming data. Investors now seek clarity on the pace of further tightening.Falling expectations for additional rate hikes can create more favorable conditions for risk assets. Higher interest rates can encourage investors to favor interest-bearing investments.Conversely, easing tightening pressure can support demand for assets such as Bitcoin. However, this relationship does not produce equally strong price movements after every economic release.Moreover, a potential October pause does not imply an imminent interest rate cut. Markets currently continue to adjust their expectations for the timing of another increase.Inflation revisions draw attentionChanges to July’s figures also matter when assessing August’s results. The Bureau of Economic Analysis lowered July’s annual core PCE increase from 3.3% to 3%.Consequently, July and August show identical annual increases in the updated series. August’s main surprise came from undershooting the market’s 3.3% forecast.This distinction separates inflation’s month-to-month trajectory from its performance against expectations. Both the level and persistence of inflation will matter in subsequent Fed assessments.Economic strength keeps the rate debate aliveThe US economy recorded annualized growth of 2.2% in the second quarter. The previous estimate had indicated growth of 1.5%.Additionally, ADP reported that private employers added 90,000 jobs in September. This exceeded August’s revised increase of 36,000.Real personal spending also rose 0.6% monthly in August. The result showed that consumption remained resilient despite elevated costs.Strong growth can ease concerns about an economic slowdown. However, robust demand could also encourage the Fed to remain cautious about inflation.Crypto investors will next focus on employment data and comments from Fed officials. Subsequent trading will reveal whether Bitcoin can retain its remaining gains.
Bitcoin started the week of September 28-October 4 at around $82,900. Ether was trading near $2,650 at the time of writing, while rising oil prices and expectations of further rate increases limited risk appetite. The main events of the week will be the US PCE inflation report and Friday’s employment data. On the crypto calendar, votes that could determine Balancer’s future, the Base and Hedera upgrades, Router Protocol’s shutdown and five token unlocks worth approximately $307 million stand out.PCE and jobs data will test Fed expectationsThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the August personal income and outlays report on Wednesday, September 30, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will also include headline and core PCE inflation, closely watched by the Federal Reserve.Annual core PCE inflation stood at 3.3% in July. The monthly price change in the August report will indicate how far higher oil costs have spread into core goods and services.The third estimate of second-quarter economic growth will also arrive on September 30 at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The BEA will release corporate profit and industry-level growth figures at the same time, meaning the initial market reaction may extend beyond the headline GDP number.The first major employment indicator will be the August JOLTS report on Tuesday, September 29, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Job openings and the quits rate will provide new signals about labor demand.The ADP private-sector employment report will be published on Wednesday, September 30, at 3:15 p.m. Türkiye time. ADP and the official payroll report use different methodologies, so the two figures may not necessarily move in the same direction.The strongest market reaction of the week could form around the US employment report on Friday, October 2, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will cover September nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and wage growth.A recent Reuters poll forecasts an increase of 100,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. These figures are market expectations; the official results will be published on Friday.Fed officials will speak after the rate increaseThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Futures markets currently assign an approximately 65% probability to another increase at the October meeting.Michael Barr will discuss the economic outlook on Tuesday, September 29, at 7:40 p.m. Türkiye time. Christopher Waller will speak about payment systems at the Sibos conference in Miami at 10:00 p.m. the same day.Philip Jefferson’s speech on Thursday, October 1, at 8:30 p.m. Türkiye time will focus directly on the US economy and monetary policy. The Fed’s official calendar also includes separate appearances by Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook covering regulation, economic data and central banking.Investors will focus on how officials balance inflation and employment risks. A significant surprise in the PCE or payroll data could increase the market impact of these speeches.Another rate increase is expected in AustraliaThe Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its policy decision on Tuesday, September 29, at 7:30 a.m. Türkiye time. The governor’s press conference will begin at 8:30 a.m.Market pricing indicates an approximately 95% probability that the cash rate will increase by 25 basis points to 4.60%. Core inflation reaching 3.6% and high energy costs underpin expectations for another increase.China’s official September PMI results will arrive on Wednesday, September 30, at 4:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Investors will watch whether the manufacturing index, which stood at 49.8 in August, moves above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction.The Bank of Japan will publish its Tankan corporate survey and a summary of opinions from its September meeting on Thursday, October 1, at 2:50 a.m. Türkiye time. After the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its latest meeting, companies’ price and wage expectations will matter for yen-funded trades.The euro area’s flash September inflation report will be released on Friday, October 2, at noon Türkiye time. Final headline inflation stood at 3.2% in August, and another increase could affect expectations for the ECB’s policy path.Oil approaches $107 againBrent crude started the week at around $106–$107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded in the $93–$94 range. The absence of an agreement in talks between the United States and Iran, together with Middle East shipping risks, continues to support energy prices.Persistently high oil prices could strengthen inflation pressures through transportation, production and food costs. Bitcoin and altcoins could face tighter dollar liquidity if this outlook causes the Fed, RBA and ECB to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.Balancer’s future goes to a voteThe Balancer community will vote until September 29 on BIP-928, which proposes an orderly wind-down of the protocol. The plan would end new business development, place eligible pools into withdrawal-only mode on October 30 and distribute the remaining treasury assets to BAL holders.The proposal includes two “yes” options that differ over the share allocated to tetuBAL assets. A separate proposal, BIP-929, presents a restructuring option for the Balancer brand and infrastructure, making the votes more significant than a routine technical parameter change.Horizen’s Special Council election will end on Wednesday, September 30, at 8:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The elected members will take part in the ecosystem’s governance and oversight processes.Hedera and Base prepare network upgradesHedera will upgrade its mainnet to version 0.77.2 on Tuesday, September 29, between 8:00 p.m. and 8:40 p.m. Türkiye time. The project’s status page warns that brief disruptions may occur during the upgrade.Base node operators must move their clients to version 1.4.2 before the Cobalt upgrade on Wednesday, September 30, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The release includes support for Proofs v2 snapshots and fixes for issues identified in the previous version.Router Protocol will cease operations on the same day and burn 303,333,198 ROUTE. The amount represents approximately 30% of the token’s maximum supply, and the team said its commercialization, licensing and acquisition efforts had failed to produce a viable outcome.Some calendars previously listed the XRPL BatchV1_1 activation for September 29. Its support process was reset, pushing activation back to October 9 at the earliest.Solana has also not confirmed a mainnet date for Alpenglow. Neither development is therefore included among the week’s 29 events.Upbit and Bithumb will end SNX tradingUpbit and Bithumb will terminate trading support for Synthetix on Monday, September 28, at 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchanges said the information requested from the foundation had failed to resolve their investor-protection concerns.Bitget postponed the delisting of FHE, DRIFT, RVV and DOG, previously scheduled for September 30, following a security incident. The decision is not included in the upcoming calendar because the exchange has not announced a new date.No high-profile spot listing or major token launch has been confirmed on leading exchanges this week. Authorities have also not announced a major crypto law taking effect or a new congressional digital asset vote with a confirmed date.Five token unlocks will add approximately $307 million in supplyThe week’s largest proportional token unlock will take place in 2Z. A total of 1.625 billion tokens will be released on October 2, worth approximately $95.4 million at spot prices at the time of writing.The amount equals approximately 46.4% of the project’s reported market capitalization.Canton Network will make 833.33 million community-allocated CC available on October 1. The unlock is worth approximately $94.7 million.Ethena will unlock 275.02 million ENA on the same day. The tokens, worth approximately $73.7 million, are allocated to the team, private investors, the community and the foundation.Sui’s October 3 unlock will release 23.38 million SUI worth approximately $27.9 million. Falcon Finance will also unlock 112.52 million FF on September 29, valued at around $15.3 million.The five unlocks have a combined estimated value of approximately $307 million. Their dollar values will fluctuate with spot prices and should therefore be treated as approximate figures.Conferences begin in Miami, New York and SeoulThe Bitcoin Treasuries Conference will focus on corporate Bitcoin reserve strategies in New York on September 28. The program begins at 4:00 p.m. Türkiye time and will cover balance-sheet management, custody, financing and investor communications.Sibos will take place in Miami from September 28 to October 1. The event will cover payments, tokenization and artificial intelligence in finance, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller among the speakers.The main Korea Blockchain Week conference will be held in Seoul from September 30 to October 1. The program will focus on real-world asset tokenization, the integration of AI and blockchain, and layer-1 and layer-2 infrastructure.No major earnings release from a publicly traded crypto company has been confirmed for the week. The Bitcoin Treasuries Conference and Sibos will therefore carry more weight for tracking how financial companies approach digital assets.This week’s 29-event crypto calendarAll times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.September 28, 9:00 a.m.: Upbit and Bithumb end trading support for SNX.September 28, 3:15 p.m.: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks about banking regulation.September 28, 4:00 p.m.: Bitcoin Treasuries Conference begins.September 28–October 1: Sibos takes place in Miami.September 29, 7:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision; press conference at 8:30 a.m.September 29: Approximately $15.3 million in FF unlocks.September 29, 5:00 p.m.: US JOLTS job openings for August.September 29, 7:40 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks about the economic outlook.September 29, 8:00–8:40 p.m.: Hedera v0.77.2 mainnet upgrade.September 29, 10:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks about payment systems.September 29: Voting ends on Balancer proposals BIP-928 and BIP-929.September 30, 4:30 a.m.: China’s official September PMI data.September 30, 3:15 p.m.: US ADP private-sector employment report.September 30, 3:30 p.m.: US PCE inflation for August.September 30, 3:30 p.m.: Third estimate of US second-quarter GDP and corporate profits.September 30, 8:00 p.m.: Horizen Special Council election ends.September 30, 9:00 p.m.: Final upgrade deadline for Base Cobalt.September 30: Router Protocol ceases operations and burns ROUTE.September 30–October 1: Korea Blockchain Week’s main conference.October 1, 2:50 a.m.: BOJ Tankan survey and summary of opinions from the September meeting.October 1: Approximately $94.7 million in CC unlocks.October 1: Approximately $73.7 million in ENA unlocks.October 1, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.October 1, 5:00 p.m.: US ISM manufacturing PMI for September.October 1, 8:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks about monetary policy.October 2, noon: Euro-area flash inflation for September.October 2, 3:30 p.m.: US September employment, unemployment and wage data.October 2: Approximately $95.4 million in 2Z unlocks.October 3: Approximately $27.9 million in SUI unlocks.The US employment report and PCE inflation could determine the broader direction of the crypto market this week. Oil remaining above $100, the expected RBA rate increase and messages from Fed officials could also increase volatility around Bitcoin’s $83,000 price level.
Bitcoin started the week of September 21–27 at approximately $83,600. Ether traded near $2,665 at the time of writing as markets assessed the future path of interest rates following last week’s decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. The crypto calendar features Plasma’s approximately $167.6 million XPL unlock, Binance’s removal of USDP and Terra’s network upgrade. Flash PMI reports, speeches from Fed officials and US durable goods orders will lead the macroeconomic agenda.Fed officials will speak after the rate increaseThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The policy statement described economic activity as solid and inflation as still elevated, while all members voted in favor of the increase.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak about discount window modernization and the functioning of the US Treasury market on Tuesday, September 22, at 5:20 p.m. Türkiye time. Michael Barr will discuss the housing market on Wednesday, September 23, at 5:05 p.m.The Fed’s official calendar also includes the Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Thursday, September 24, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will show how collateral, leverage and credit conditions have changed for major institutions that finance securities transactions.Markets currently assign an approximately 55% probability to another rate increase in October. Comments about inflation, oil prices and the next meeting could affect Bitcoin through movements in the dollar and Treasury yields.PCE inflation will not be released this weekSome economic calendars list US personal consumption expenditures inflation and gross domestic product data for this week. The latest schedule from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the August PCE report and the third estimate of second-quarter growth will arrive on September 30.Neither PCE nor GDP data belong on the September 21–27 calendar. This week’s US releases instead center on new home sales, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.August new home sales will arrive on Thursday, September 24, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The Census Bureau calendar schedules durable goods orders for Friday, September 25, at 3:30 p.m.The University of Michigan will publish its final September consumer sentiment reading at 5:00 p.m. on September 25. The preliminary index fell from 51.7 to 47.8, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%.Flash PMI data will provide a view of global growthSeptember flash purchasing managers’ indexes will be released on Wednesday, September 23. The euro-area composite PMI will arrive at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time, followed by the UK data at 11:30 a.m. and the US manufacturing and services indexes at 4:45 p.m.Readings above 50 would indicate an expansion in private-sector activity. Strong growth accompanied by rising input prices could support expectations that central banks will continue raising interest rates.Price indicators within the services reports will carry particular importance for crypto markets. The Fed continued to characterize inflation as elevated last week, making input costs and selling prices almost as significant as the headline PMI readings.Oil and the US-China meeting enter focusBrent crude started the week above $100 as conflict in the Middle East and shipping risks continued to affect the energy market. High oil prices are maintaining pressure on the currencies and inflation outlooks of energy-importing countries.The Bangladeshi government increased fuel prices by as much as 17.4% from September 21 in response to higher global oil and shipping costs. The decision provides a current example of how the energy shock is passing through to consumer prices.US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on September 24. Comments on trade, artificial intelligence, supply chains and the Middle East could influence risk appetite and the direction of the dollar.Terra will upgrade its network todayTerra will activate a network upgrade at block height 22,942,000 on Monday, September 21. The network is expected to reach the block at approximately 6:00 p.m. Türkiye time, although the exact time may change depending on block production.Binance said it would temporarily suspend LUNA deposits and withdrawals from 5:00 p.m. Spot trading will remain available, while transfers will resume after the exchange determines that the network is stable.The exchange will also launch a USDBRLUSDT perpetual contract tracking the US dollar-Brazilian real exchange rate at 5:00 p.m. The USDT-settled product will trade around the clock and offer leverage of up to 100 times.Binance will end USDP tradingBinance will cease all spot trading in Pax Dollar on Thursday, September 24, at 6:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange will cancel open orders and terminate the related trading-bot services at the same time.USDP deposits will no longer be credited to user accounts after 6:00 a.m. on September 25. Withdrawals will remain available until 6:00 a.m. on November 24.The decision does not end the Paxos-issued token or USDP trading on other exchanges. Its impact is limited to Binance’s spot market and related products that support USDP.The XPL unlock exceeds $167 millionTokenomist estimates that cliff unlocks scheduled for the next seven days have a combined value of approximately $227.17 million. Plasma’s September 25 unlock accounts for roughly $167.6 million of that total.The XPL release equals approximately 67.1% of the project’s reported market capitalization. The tokens belong to the ecosystem and growth allocation, making XPL the asset with the week’s highest dilution risk.Humanity Protocol will release approximately $18.97 million in H tokens to early contributors on the same day. The amount equals around 13.1% of its reported market capitalization.SoSoValue’s September 24 unlock has an estimated value of $6.83 million, equivalent to 6.9% of its market capitalization. STBL will release approximately $5.41 million from its adviser allocation on September 26, representing around 42.7% of its reported market capitalization.Smaller releases include approximately $2.52 million in ID, $3.83 million in SOON, $1.88 million in MET and $2.7 million in AERO.ETHTokyo continues this weekETHTokyo, which began on September 19, will continue through September 27. The event brings together Ethereum developers, security researchers, infrastructure projects and members of Japan’s Web3 community.The US Senate’s procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the required 60-vote threshold on September 15. No new vote has been scheduled, so the proposal does not appear among this week’s upcoming events.The SEC announced a five-year exemption for tokenized stock trading on September 17. Although the decision is a completed development, it creates a new regulatory framework that could affect the tokenized securities plans of companies such as Coinbase and Robinhood.This week’s 24-event crypto calendarSeptember 21, 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time: Binance suspends Terra deposits and withdrawals.September 21, approximately 6:00 p.m.: Terra network upgrade.September 21, 5:00 p.m.: Binance launches the USDBRLUSDT perpetual contract.September 21–27: The remaining ETHTokyo program continues.September 22, approximately 3:00 a.m.: ID unlock worth around $2.52 million.September 22, 5:20 p.m.: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.September 23, 11:00 a.m.: Euro-area flash PMI data for September.September 23, 11:30 a.m.: UK flash PMI data for September.September 23, approximately 11:30 a.m.: SOON unlock worth around $3.83 million.September 23, approximately 4:00 p.m.: MET unlock worth around $1.88 million.September 23, 4:45 p.m.: US flash PMI data for September.September 23, 5:05 p.m.: Speech by Fed Governor Michael Barr.September 24, approximately 3:00 a.m.: AERO unlock worth around $2.7 million.September 24, 5:00 a.m.: USDP removed from Binance Convert.September 24, 6:00 a.m.: Binance ends USDP spot trading.September 24: SOSO unlock worth around $6.83 million.September 24, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.September 24, 5:00 p.m.: US new home sales for August.September 24, 9:00 p.m.: Fed credit conditions survey.September 24: Trump-Xi meeting.September 25: XPL unlock worth around $167.6 million.September 25: H unlock worth around $18.97 million.September 25, 3:30 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.: US durable goods orders and final consumer sentiment.September 26: STBL unlock worth around $5.41 million.The XPL unlock represents the week’s strongest crypto-specific price risk because of its size. The broader market will focus on flash PMI data, Fed officials’ post-meeting messages, oil prices above $100 and announcements from the US-China meeting.
