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Crypto Agenda in Davos: Coinbase CEO to Speak
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he will discuss the market structure legislation being prepared in the US for crypto assets with top executives from the banking sector at the World Economic Forum. These meetings, taking place during the forum in Davos, Switzerland, aim to contribute to resolving ongoing debates, particularly regarding stablecoins.In a video message shared on the X platform, Armstrong emphasized that Coinbase will continue to actively work on the draft legislation. He stated that they will meet with bank CEOs in Davos to address remaining issues, saying, "We will discuss ways to make this regulation a 'win-win' for everyone." According to Armstrong, stablecoins offer a level playing field, creating new opportunities for both crypto companies and traditional banks. Coinbase withdrew US supportCoinbase withdrew its support in the US last week after reviewing the updated text of the bill in the US Senate. In the updated text, the adoption of an approach that prohibits crypto companies from paying interest or returns to users who only hold stablecoin balances became one of the exchange's main points of objection. Armstrong stated that they aim to contribute to the progress of the legislative process by conveying the results of the meetings with bankers in Davos to the Senate and the US administration. This debate surrounding stablecoins is also seen as a reflection of the tension between the crypto sector and traditional banking. The banking sector argues that crypto platforms offering returns on stablecoin balances could lead to deposit flight from savings accounts and pose a risk to financial stability. The Senate's draft text is in line with this view. While the text prohibits passive returns based solely on holding stablecoins, it allows rewards tied to activities such as trading, staking, or providing liquidity. Coinbase's backtracking had a tangible impact on the legislative process. Following the exchange's withdrawal of support, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee postponed its expected review session and did not announce a new date. Despite this, Coinbase argues that it will continue to work with lawmakers to prevent the regulation from being completely shelved, suggesting that revising the text to create a clear and workable framework is possible. The company believes that the law could provide the long-awaited regulatory clarity for digital assets.Armstrong's Davos agenda is not limited to regulatory discussions in the US. The Coinbase CEO stated that during the forum, he will also discuss with world leaders how crypto assets can update traditional financial systems and how tokenization can make access to capital markets more democratic. Tokenization has recently gained attention in both the private and public sectors.On the other hand, contacts in Davos are not limited to the crypto world. Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump is also attending the forum and is expected to hold a series of meetings with global investors. However, it is not clear whether digital assets are on Trump's agenda. The escalating tension between the US and the EU over Greenland is currently one of the main topics of Davos.
Crypto Bulls Expect a Rate Cut While JPMorgan Expects a Rate Hike
US-based investment bank JPMorgan shared a forecast that significantly diverges from the general market regarding expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move. According to the bank, the Fed's next step will be an interest rate increase, not a cut, and this increase is unlikely to occur before the third quarter of 2027. This approach is in clear contrast to the views of analysts, particularly in the crypto markets, who expect an interest rate cut this year.JPMorgan's "reverse" scenarioAccording to the assessment reflected in Reuters, JPMorgan predicts that the Fed will keep the policy interest rate stable in the 3.5–3.75 percent range throughout 2026, followed by a 25 basis point increase in the third quarter of 2027. This forecast of the bank does not align with market pricing for an earlier interest rate cut. In particular, CME Fed funds futures show that investors are positioned with the expectation of two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year. In the prevailing optimistic scenario in the crypto markets, it is thought that falling interest rates will increase risk appetite and accelerate capital flows into digital assets. In this context, Bitcoin stands out as an instrument more sensitive to interest rate expectations compared to traditional assets. Bitcoin, which is directly linked to fiat currency liquidity, is frequently discussed with the view that it can perform more strongly if borrowing costs decline. FXTM senior market analyst Lukman Otunuga is among those who support this expectation. Otunuga states that although 2025 will be challenging, Bitcoin has the potential to recover in 2026, and that lower interest rates and a decrease in the active supply in the market could be supportive of prices. Many optimistic investors in the crypto market also think that a possible change in the Fed chairmanship could open the door to a more dovish monetary policy. Current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end in early May. JPMorgan's expectation of tighter monetary policy also coincides with the technical outlook for US 10-year Treasury yields. Chart patterns suggest that the 10-year Treasury yield could rise towards 6% in the coming period. Currently, this yield is around 4.18%. This picture raises the possibility that financial conditions may remain tighter than expected. However, JPMorgan is not entirely ruling out the possibility of an interest rate cut. Bank analysts acknowledge that the Fed may ease rates later this year if there is a significant weakening in the labor market or a faster-than-expected decline in inflation. However, current data shows that this scenario is not strong in the short term. According to JPMorgan, the labor market is expected to tighten again starting in the second quarter, and the disinflation process is expected to proceed quite gradually. The recently released US employment data also supports this stance. The unemployment rate falling to 4.4% in December has led many major banks to reconsider their interest rate cut schedules. Goldman Sachs and Barclays have shifted their expectations for interest rate cuts, previously pointing to March and June, to September and December. This indicates that uncertainty regarding the interest rate path persists and that macroeconomic dynamics closely monitored by crypto markets remain important.
Fed Chairman Powell Under Scrutiny: Investigation Started
Months before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends, a remarkable legal process has emerged in the US. According to a New York Times report citing sources close to the matter, US federal prosecutors have launched an investigation into Jerome Powell. The investigation is reportedly linked to Powell's previous testimony before Congress regarding the renovation of the Fed buildings in Washington, D.C., reigniting tensions between monetary policy and politics. Powell speaks about the investigationFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell argued that the threat of a criminal investigation against him is politically motivated. Powell stated that the process, conducted by the U.S. Department of Justice, is related to the Fed's refusal to shape its interest rate policy in line with the White House's expectations. These statements come as Powell's term is set to end in May 2026 and tensions with President Donald Trump are steadily increasing. In a video message, Powell announced that the Fed received a grand jury subpoena on Friday. He stated that the subpoena, based on testimony given before the Senate in 2025, contains charges related to a nearly $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed's headquarters in Washington. Powell described this move as "unprecedented," emphasizing that it should be seen as part of a long-standing political pressure campaign rather than an isolated legal process. The Fed chairman stated that Congress was regularly informed about the renovation project and that the entire process was conducted publicly. Despite this, Powell characterized the use of this as grounds for investigation as a "pretext," arguing that the real issue is monetary policy choices. According to Powell, the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting interest rates based on economic data and the public interest. "This is about whether monetary policy will be based on evidence or on political pressure and intimidation," Powell said, adding that the Fed's independence is under attack. The bank's governor stated that he would not back down from his public interest-oriented approach and would continue to focus on price stability and maximum employment goals throughout his term.The Fed had lowered its policy interest rate three times in the second half of 2025, bringing the rate range to 3.50–3.75 percent with the last cut in December. The quantitative tightening program was also ended during the same period. However, Trump frequently criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly and deeply enough, even occasionally raising the possibility of his removal. In an interview with NBC, Trump said he was unaware of the Justice Department's investigation into the Fed and argued that the process was unrelated to interest rate policy.Powell's statements triggered a rapid price movement in the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin rose above $92,000 on Sunday night, while strong buying was seen in major altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana. Privacy-focused tokens were particularly noteworthy; Monero recorded double-digit gains, while Zcash also saw sharp price increases. Who will be the new Fed chairman?Meanwhile, who Trump will appoint to the Fed chairmanship after Powell is also being closely watched. According to information leaked to the press, the list of candidates includes Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder. Trump has openly stated that the new chairman will be someone who "believes in much lower interest rates."
Trump Sends a Clear Message: No Pardon for Former FTX CEO
Despite signing numerous pardons and sentence reductions in 2025 that closely concern the cryptocurrency world, US President Donald Trump has clearly closed the door on former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. In a comprehensive interview with The New York Times, Trump addressed the frequently discussed possibility of a presidential pardon, explicitly stating that there are no plans for a pardon for Bankman-Fried.No pardon for SBFTrump's statement comes after a wave of pardons and sentence reductions covering hundreds of people in the first year of his second presidential term. These decisions included notable figures from the cryptocurrency ecosystem. However, Trump's approach shows that he does not evaluate every crypto case in the same way. Bankman-Fried's case stands out as one of the clearest examples of this distinction. Bankman-Fried, who was found guilty in the case opened after the collapse of the FTX exchange, was sentenced to 25 years in prison for misuse of customer funds and various fraud offenses. FTX, once one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, experienced a historic bankruptcy process with billions of dollars in losses. During the court proceedings, prosecutors revealed that user assets were illegally channeled through Alameda Research, and that this had become a systematic operation. Despite this, Bankman-Fried's family hasn't completely lost hope for a pardon. As Bloomberg reported in January, his family made several attempts to contact the Trump administration. In February 2025, in his first interview from prison, Bankman-Fried described himself as disillusioned with the Biden administration's crypto policies, attempting to frame his case within a broader political context. However, Trump's recent statements suggest these efforts have been unsuccessful. Trump's stance is further highlighted by his other pardons in the crypto space. In 2025, the President pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. This was followed by pardons for BitMEX founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed, as well as former executive Gregory Dwyer. In October, the conviction of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was overturned by a presidential pardon. The pardon, in particular, sparked controversy in Washington. Some Democrats in the Senate demanded an investigation into the background of the decision. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders argued that the possible links between the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial project and Binance should be examined. Looking at this picture, the boundaries drawn by Trump become clearer. The President views the crypto sector as an area that needs strategic and economic support. However, this support does not include executives convicted of crimes such as large-scale fraud and misuse of customer funds. Trump's "closed file" approach to Bankman-Fried reveals that this distinction is a conscious choice. Bankman-Fried, currently in a low-security prison near Los Angeles, continues to serve his sentence. According to the current schedule, he has the possibility of being released as early as 2044, including parole. The appeals process remains uncertain.
Fed's Message: The Era of Fine-Tuning Rates is Coming
Recent statements from the US Federal Reserve indicate that while uncertainties in monetary policy haven't completely disappeared as we head into 2026, risks are beginning to be discussed within a clearer framework. Assessments by Fed members Thomas Barkin and Stephen Miran have brought the delicate balance between expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns about economic growth back to the forefront. Key statements from Fed officialsRichmond Fed President Thomas Barkin emphasized that the US economy performed more resiliently than expected last year. However, according to Barkin, this resilience was limited to specific sectors rather than a widespread strengthening of the economy. The fact that demand and employment growth were confined to a narrow range, coupled with the observed decline in consumer and corporate confidence, signals that the risks facing monetary policy are still present.Barkin stated that the Fed is entering a period where "fine-tuning" is necessary between its dual mandates of price stability and full employment. Barkin noted that although inflation has declined, it is still above the target, and unemployment remains at low levels, but added that further deterioration of the labor market is also undesirable. In this context, he stated that the current policy interest rate is within a "neutral range," neither excessively suppressing the economy nor excessively loose.Regarding expectations for 2026, Barkin adopted a more optimistic tone. He said that the uncertainties felt globally last year are expected to decrease this year, which could boost confidence among consumers and businesses. He shared the view that tax changes, regulatory relaxations, and potential interest rate cuts, when considered together, could accelerate economic activity.On the other hand, Stephen Miran, one of the names mentioned for the Fed chairmanship, gave clearer and more dovish messages regarding monetary policy. Miran said he believes that data will continue to show that interest rate cuts are appropriate. He emphasized that the "unusual" dynamics in housing inflation have led to headline inflation remaining above the target, while core inflation remains quite close to the Fed's targets. According to Miran, current monetary policy is still restrictive and this is putting pressure on economic growth. Arguing that the Fed should cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, Miran warned that if policy remains tight for too long, growth could be hampered in its early stages. He stated that he believes fiscal policy will support growth throughout 2026 and expressed optimism about the overall economic outlook. He also added that he has not had any discussions with Trump regarding the Fed chairmanship and that all candidates on the shortlist are trustworthy individuals.On the market front, expectations are currently more cautious. Current pricing indicates that the Fed will make two interest rate cuts this year. However, it is noted that this outlook may change with the data to be released in the coming days. In particular, the JOLTS data, along with the employment reports to be released later in the week and the inflation data to be released next week, may somewhat reduce the uncertainty regarding the Fed's interest rate path. Therefore, investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic data as well as messages from Fed members.
Japan Shifts Gears into Crypto: 2026 Declared the “Digital Year”
Japan has sent one of its clearest and strongest messages yet regarding the integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial system. Speaking at the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the occasion of the new year, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that making digital assets more accessible to a wider audience through securities and commodity exchanges is critically important. Katayama officially declared 2026 as the "digital year," emphasizing that the Japanese financial system will play an active role in this transformation. According to local media agencies, Katayama stated that exchanges play a central role in the widespread public offering of blockchain-based digital assets. Recalling that cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are used by individual investors as a hedge against inflation in the US, Katayama indicated that similar products could be considered in Japan. Currently, there is no cryptocurrency ETF open to local investors in the country, but the statements suggest this may change. Katayama said that the government will not only remain in a regulatory position but will also provide full support to exchanges for the modernization of financial market infrastructure. Katayama stated that they aim to create an environment that will pave the way for the integrated use of fintech solutions with digital asset trading, adding that this approach could put Japan back in the spotlight in global financial competition.Japan continues to take steps towards cryptoThis opening towards crypto assets is also consistent with Japan's recent accelerated regulatory reforms. Last year, the Financial Services Agency, the country's financial supervisory authority, opened discussions on allowing banks to directly hold and trade crypto assets. During the same period, JPYC, the first stablecoin pegged to the Japanese yen, was also approved. These steps are paving the way for crypto to become a legitimate tool not only for individual investors but also for institutional finance.Another important step taken in November was the reclassification of 105 major crypto assets as "financial products" under existing financial legislation. This list includes the largest assets in the market, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. This change could pave the way for these tokens to be used more widely alongside traditional financial products.There is also a remarkable transformation on the tax side. Japan plans to reduce the tax rate applied to crypto gains from as high as 55% to 20%. This would place digital assets under the same tax regime as stocks and other traditional investment instruments. Furthermore, investors will be able to carry forward losses from crypto transactions for three years.These regulations have whetted the appetite of Japanese financial giants. SBI Holdings has long been waiting for a suitable legal framework for crypto ETFs. Meanwhile, Ripple is reportedly preparing to launch its stablecoin, RLUSD, with SBI support in the first quarter of 2026.Katayama describes 2026 as a turning point not only for digital assets but also for the chronic problems of the Japanese economy. In this process, supported by combating deflation, growth-oriented investments, and fiscal policies, digital finance is expected to play a significant leverage role.
Geopolitical Tensions Stirred the Crypto Market: Bitcoin Surpassed $93,000
Bitcoin made a notable surge in the cryptocurrency market in the first days of the new year, surpassing the $93,000 level on Monday. This movement, accompanied by a widespread increase in risk appetite, was not limited to Bitcoin; strong buying was also seen in many major crypto assets, especially Ethereum.Bitcoin experiences a riseAccording to the latest price movements, Bitcoin crossed the $93,000 threshold overnight, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 2%. Ethereum rose to levels around $3,190, while major altcoins such as XRP, BNB, and Solana also recorded gains ranging from 2% to 5%. The price chart in the image shows that Bitcoin has been following a gradual upward trend in recent days and is continuing its efforts to hold above $92,000. In the short term, the $93,000 region stands out as a psychological threshold, and the market is closely watching whether this level will be permanent. Indeed, the BTC price has retreated to the $92,500 level at the time of writing. The sudden volatility in the market has also had severe consequences in the derivatives market. According to Coinglass data, approximately $141 million worth of positions were liquidated in the last four hours alone. About $133 million of these liquidations consisted of short positions. The intense closing of short positions is considered one of the key factors accelerating the upward momentum of the price. Liquidations occur when investors experience insufficient collateral in leveraged transactions, resulting in the automatic closure of their positions. According to analysts, this rise is not unique to the crypto market. A similar picture is seen in Asian markets. South Korea's Kospi index and Japan's Nikkei index rose by more than 2%, highlighting a trend described as a "rally of everything" globally. Investors repositioning their portfolios in the first week of the new year is making assets with limited supply, such as Bitcoin, attractive again.Military operation in Venezuela Geopolitical developments also play a decisive role in pricing. News of the US military operation in Venezuela and the potential capture of leader Nicolás Maduro resonated in global markets over the weekend. With traditional markets closed, cryptocurrencies became one of the most liquid sectors pricing in the news flow. According to analysts, investors generally viewed these developments positively in terms of risky assets, supporting buying activity in the crypto market. Following these developments, oil prices saw limited pullbacks, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver experienced significant movements. The crypto market's ability to simultaneously price in both risk appetite and geopolitical uncertainty once again highlighted why Bitcoin excels during such periods. Looking ahead, investors are focused on the opening of US stock markets and the trajectory of macroeconomic data. The $95,000 level is particularly being watched as a significant resistance point for Bitcoin. A break above this level could accelerate the rise, while a short-term pause is anticipated.
Putin's Statement: Crypto Mining at Nuclear Power Plants is on the Table
Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised a striking claim regarding the future of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Europe's largest nuclear power plant. According to reports in the Russian press, Putin stated that the US has expressed interest in allowing cryptocurrency mining at the plant as part of ongoing peace negotiations. Kommersant reported that Washington is considering using the facility for energy-intensive cryptocurrency mining in exchange for a potential stake or partnership. The nuclear power plant is located in southeastern Ukraine and has been under Russian control since 2022. Before the war, ZNPP played a critical role in Ukraine's electricity supply and is of strategic importance not only in terms of energy production but also in terms of regional grid stability and security. Therefore, who will operate the plant in the future and under what model remains one of the most contentious issues in diplomatic contacts regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Kommersant, negotiations are underway between Russia and the United States regarding the joint management of the power plant, and a scenario in which Ukraine is completely excluded is among the options being considered. In contrast, the BBC reports that the US has proposed a tripartite operating model including Russia and Ukraine, with each side having an equal share. This approach aims to operate the plant within a technical and commercial framework, free from political tensions.50-50 Proposal from UkraineStatements from the Ukrainian side indicate a different balance. According to sources speaking to Reuters, the Kiev government has proposed a 50-50 joint venture operation of the plant between the US and Ukraine. According to this model, Ukraine would directly receive half of the electricity produced by the plant; the US would then decide on the use of the remaining portion alone. As reported by Euronews, the Ukrainian side is operating on the assumption that the US could allocate a portion of its share to Russia. Control over the ZNPP is not limited solely to energy production. The electricity supply to cities in southern Ukraine, regional grid stability, and nuclear safety are directly linked to this facility. Adding the cryptocurrency mining aspect further complicates the matter. Nuclear power plants offer uninterrupted and relatively low-cost electricity production, making them an attractive infrastructure, especially for mining energy-intensive crypto assets like Bitcoin. However, uncertainties surrounding the plant's status make it difficult to implement such projects in the short term. A clear agreement has not yet been reached between the parties. Therefore, the idea of cryptocurrency mining at ZNPP is currently considered part of diplomatic negotiations. Without a change in the military situation and political balance on the ground, such an investment seems unlikely to materialize. Meanwhile, ceasefire efforts are gaining momentum. As the war enters its fourth year, US President Donald Trump has intensified diplomatic contacts for a peace agreement. Territorial arrangements, security guarantees, and economic cooperation are among the key topics in these discussions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters that progress had been made with the US on a peace plan consisting of approximately 20 points. Putin, meanwhile, indicated that they were open to some concessions, but maintained his firm stance on the Donbas region.
US GDP Surprise, Bitcoin Remains Flat
The latest macroeconomic data released from the US revealed that the economy performed stronger than expected in the third quarter of 2025. According to preliminary data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. This rate surpassed the 3.8 percent growth recorded in the second quarter, indicating continued momentum in the economy. Thus, the US economy entered the second half of the year with reduced recession fears. Looking at the details of the data, it appears that growth was primarily fueled by consumer spending, a recovery in exports, and increased government spending. In particular, the strong performance of household consumption indicated resilience in domestic demand despite the high interest rate environment. Increased government spending and exports were also among the factors supporting growth. However, weakness was observed on the investment front. The decline in fixed capital investments raised questions about the sustainability of the growth composition going forward. The GDP price index exceeding expectations showed that the risks on the inflation front have not completely disappeared. This outlook strengthened expectations that the Fed may take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts. While markets continue to foresee approximately two interest rate cuts in total for 2026, the lack of a clear expectation of a cut for 2027 is noteworthy. The negative surprises seen in durable goods data also indicated that tight financial conditions continue to put pressure on some sectors.Bitcoin and altcoins are trading sidewaysDespite this strong macroeconomic picture, there was no significant price change in the cryptocurrency market. The Bitcoin price traded sideways in the 87,000-88,000 dollar range at the time the data was released. Apart from the limited fluctuations seen in the intraday chart, it was noteworthy that the price did not show a strong breakout either upwards or downwards. Although Bitcoin retreated by approximately 2 percent in the 24-hour period, this movement is considered to be related to short-term technical corrections rather than macroeconomic data. The chart suggests the market has largely priced in the US growth data. Strong GDP figures reduce recession risks, while persistently high inflation and the possibility of delayed interest rate cuts have limited buying appetite in the Bitcoin market. Therefore, investors appear to be cautious and a clear direction has not yet emerged.
US Senate Approves: Crypto-Friendly Figure to Head CFTC
A significant regulatory change affecting cryptocurrency markets in the US has passed the Senate. The US Senate officially confirmed lawyer Mike Selig, known for his crypto-friendly approach, as the new chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the same vote, Travis Hill was also appointed as the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). These appointments were approved by a vote of 53 to 43, following a broad list of approximately 100 candidates nominated by the Donald Trump administration for various government agencies. Why is Mike Selig's appointment as CFTC chairman significant?Mike Selig's rise to the CFTC chairmanship comes at a critical time, particularly for cryptocurrency markets. Having previously served on both the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Selig stands out as an experienced figure in cryptocurrency regulation. Selig, who served as the chief legal counsel at the SEC's Crypto Task Force, made it clear when he was nominated in October that he would make crypto a top priority during his term.Speaking at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee, Selig highlighted the lack of clear and predictable regulations for cryptocurrencies. The new CFTC Chairman emphasized the need to balance consumer protection with the ability of software developers and entrepreneurs to innovate during the regulatory process. This approach is interpreted as a significant message for the US crypto market, which has long faced criticism for "regulatory uncertainty."The expansion of the CFTC's authority is also on the agenda. A bill introduced to the Senate in November and supported by both parties aims to shift the primary oversight responsibility for crypto markets from the SEC to the CFTC. If the bill becomes law, the CFTC will assume a much more decisive role, particularly in spot crypto markets. Selig's chairmanship will be key in shaping this transition process.On the other hand, Travis Hill's appointment as head of the FDIC is also being closely watched by the crypto sector. Hill, during his tenure, adopted a more moderate approach to crypto and raised allegations in congressional hearings that crypto-related companies were being excluded from the banking system. The FDIC is expected to have a say in how stablecoin issuers and crypto companies' banking relationships are regulated. The new appointments were generally well-received in the industry. Coinbase's policy director, Faryar Shirzad, stated that Selig's experience in the crypto space and his federal regulatory background would bring fairness and clarity to the US crypto markets. Cody Carbone, CEO of Digital Chamber, which lobbies for digital assets, said that Selig's mastery of technical matters would contribute to a healthier regulatory framework. Alexander Grieve, a Paradigm executive, commented, "The markets are in safe hands." Mike Selig's term will end in April 2029. After taking the oath, Selig will take over from interim chair Caroline Pham. Due to resignations throughout the year, the CFTC is currently operating with only one commissioner, despite having the standard five-member structure. Travis Hill will head the FDIC for the next five years.
Crypto Relief After CPI Increase: Bitcoin in the $88,000 Range
Bitcoin experienced volatile trading before the release of US November inflation data, but reacted upwards after the CPI came in below expectations. The BTC price, which was trying to hold above the $87,000 level earlier in the day, settled in the $88,000 range following the data release and subsequent buying activity. Bitcoin price fluctuates in a narrow rangeSince the beginning of the week, the cryptocurrency market has been struggling to find direction. Bitcoin came under pressure after losing the psychological $90,000 threshold earlier in the week, and many altcoins followed suit. This cautious atmosphere in the market led to limited risk appetite before the release of US CPI data. Investors were focused on this critical data to clarify the impact of inflation on the Fed's interest rate path.The November CPI data, released at 16:30 Turkish time, showed an annual rate of 2.7 percent. Market expectations were at 3.1%, while the previous month's data was recorded at 3.0%. The significantly lower-than-expected inflation figure strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance in the coming period. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in at 224,000, in line with expectations, and there were no further surprises in the labor market. This situation led to short-term buying in Bitcoin. BTC, which was stabilizing around $87,000 before the data release, reacted upwards after the announcement, rising above the $88,000 level. As seen in the image, the price is trading near its intraday highs, while volatility remains high. Analyses published before the data release had a cautious tone. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, stated that Bitcoin positioning was clearly bearish. According to Forster, 30-day BTC volatility is climbing back to around 45%, while the skew in the options market is hovering around -5%. This outlook indicated that investors continued to price in downside risks throughout the first quarter of the year. The analyst assessed the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 at approximately 30 percent, and the probability of returning to all-time highs at around 10 percent. On the technical side, the pre-CPI picture was also generating weak signals. Bitcoin had experienced a pullback of approximately 7 percent in recent days after being rejected from the falling trend line. However, with the inflation data falling below expectations, a space has emerged for the market to reposition itself in the short term. If Bitcoin maintains its closing above $85,500, a technical recovery towards the $94,000 level remains a possibility. In the alternative scenario, the loss of this support could lead to the psychological threshold of $80,000 coming back into play. In summary, the November CPI data created a short-term breathing space for the crypto market. While Bitcoin's initial reaction was positive, both the continuation of macroeconomic data and the technical levels need to be closely monitored for the medium-term direction. In this period of high volatility, market sensitivity to Fed expectations remains a key factor.
Fed Gives Green Light to Crypto: 2023 Restrictions Lifted
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has withdrawn its 2023 guidance limiting interaction with crypto assets, marking a significant shift in its approach to innovation within the banking system. This decision allows banks under Fed supervision, particularly uninsured state banks, to operate more flexibly with cryptocurrencies and similar digital financial products. This move comes as US regulators have recently adopted a more positive stance towards digital assets, making it a closely watched development for the sector.What did the 2023 guidance cover?The guidance, published in 2023, stipulated that uninsured banks would be subject to the same rules as banks with federal deposit insurance. Based on the principle that "like pays like pays," this approach effectively prevented uninsured banks from conducting activities not permitted for national banks, such as crypto services. This created significant restrictions, particularly for crypto-focused banks, in terms of Fed membership and access to central bank systems. The Fed cited significant changes in the financial system over the past two years and the institution's evolving understanding of innovative products as reasons for withdrawing the guidance. The statement read, "The 2023 policy statement is no longer appropriate and has therefore been withdrawn." According to the Fed, the current framework is outdated in the face of rapidly evolving financial technologies. One of the first reactions from the sector came from Caitlin Long, CEO of the crypto-friendly Custodia Bank. In a post on social media, Long reminded that the 2023 guidance was used as the primary reason for rejecting her bank's application to open a "master account" with the Fed. A master account allows a financial institution to hold an account directly with the Fed and access the central bank's payment systems without the need for an intermediary. Long argued that the Fed used the guidance as a basis for the Custodia decision even before it officially came into effect, claiming this was illegal. The Fed's new move was not limited to simply revoking the old guidance. The institution also released a new policy framework for “innovative activities” for both insured and uninsured state banks under Fed supervision. This framework allows banks to launch products and services based on new technologies, such as cryptocurrencies, provided they meet specified risk management and compliance standards. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman emphasized that the goal of the new approach is to keep the banking sector both safe and modern. According to Bowman, when implemented responsibly, new technologies increase efficiency for banks and enable them to offer better products to customers. The Fed's goal is to encourage innovation without compromising the principles of financial stability and soundness. However, the decision was not unanimous within the Fed. Fed Board Member Michael Barr dissented, arguing that maintaining the principle of level treatment among banks is critical to preventing regulatory arbitrage. He stated that the new policy could encourage banks to adopt looser regulations, creating incentives incompatible with financial stability. Barr has been associated with the “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” debates in the past, which aimed to exclude crypto companies from the banking system, but he has also served as an advisor at Ripple and is known for supporting responsible stablecoin regulation.
US November Employment Exceeds Expectations, Unemployment Rises: How Did Bitcoin React?
The latest data on the US labor market indicates that the slowdown in the economy is becoming more pronounced. In November, non-farm employment increased by 64,000 people, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching its highest level in four years. The data had been delayed due to the government shutdown in Washington, and this delay revealed a weaker picture of the labor market than expected.According to the report released Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the increase in non-farm employment in November was slightly above economists' expectations. Market expectations were for an increase of 50,000 people. However, although the headline figure exceeded expectations, the rise in the unemployment rate and revisions to the previous month indicate a weakening overall trend in the labor market.With the November data, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. This rate exceeded both the market expectation of 4.4% and the 4.4% recorded in September. Thus, the unemployment rate in the US reached its highest level in almost four years. Rising unemployment has reinforced concerns that demand in the labor market is gradually cooling.Employment data for October presented an even more striking picture. According to the data, employment decreased by 105,000 people in October. In September, employment increased by 119,000 people. This sharp drop in October is largely attributed to the US federal government shutdown. The temporary absence of public employees from their jobs and disruptions to some data collection processes put downward pressure on the figures.When the November and October data are considered together, it is seen that the US labor market has shown a more fragile appearance than expected in recent months. The slowdown in the pace of employment growth and the rise in the unemployment rate indicate that signals of a cooling in the economy are strengthening.How did Bitcoin move?Following the release of the data, limited reactions were observed in financial markets. Bitcoin gave back some of the small gains it had recorded before the report, briefly falling to the $87,000 level. US stock futures indices, on the other hand, shifted slightly from positive to slightly negative. On the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained flat at 4.17 percent. Prior to the employment data, markets were pricing in a 75 percent probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. Following the release of the data, there was no significant change in these expectations. This indicates that investors do not expect a sudden shift in the Fed's monetary policy in the short term. The overall picture shows that the US economy has not entered a strong contraction, but there has been a significant loss of momentum in the labor market. New employment and inflation data to be released in the coming months will continue to be critical for expectations regarding the Fed's policy steps.
Fed Decision Triggers Volatility in Crypto Market: Bitcoin and Altcoins Shaken
The crypto market entered a period of uncertainty following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a quarter-point interest rate cut. Initially welcomed, the decision was quickly digested due to internal committee disagreements and the lack of clear indications of further easing; risk appetite weakened, and prices turned down again. Futures data, however, shows that traders have already shifted to new expectations, pricing in a near 40% probability of a cut by March. This situation has carried the market into the final weeks of the year on an uncertain footing. At the FOMC meeting, the federal funds range was lowered to 3.5-3.75. The vote passed 9-3; two regional presidents opposed the cut, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocated for a more aggressive half-point reduction. The emphasis on "carefully evaluating incoming data" was closely watched, as it is language used in the past during periods of slowing interest rate cut cycles. This tone dampened hopes for further easing. Bitcoin experienced sharp fluctuations between $93,200 and $91,700 after the decision; Ethereum also exhibited similar volatility in the $3,340-$3,440 range. Solana, XRP, and BNB were also caught in the same fluctuations. The Fed's $40 billion Treasury bond purchases, starting on December 12th, have brought the "quantitative easing" debate back to the forefront. A similar program in 2019 was implemented for reserve management purposes; today, it is being discussed that its effect may be limited but potentially directional. What do the experts say?Analyst comments reflect the confusion in the market. According to the CryptoQuant team, BTC has the potential to break through the $99,000 and $102,000 resistance levels and head towards $112,000 if the Fed becomes more clearly "dovish." However, this requires not only further rate cuts but also a more consistent guide from the Fed regarding its inflation path until 2026. Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau stated that the decision being less hawkish than expected gave the market a brief respite, but the fact that only one rate cut was predicted dampened this relief. Another view came from David Hernandez of 21Shares; according to Hernandez, the rate cut itself is the first sign that could increase risk appetite. "Today's rate cut is a lifeline thrown to sinking Bitcoin," he says, recalling the historical tendency of cheaper liquidity to flow into crypto. However, the price action in the market did not immediately confirm Hernandez's optimism. Bitcoin retreated to the $90,000 threshold the morning after the decision. After a brief jump above $94,500 on Tuesday, BTC returned to the middle band after failing to break this resistance. Over $514 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours; losses from long positions were approximately three times greater than those from short positions.
Crypto Markets Also Await: When Will the Fed Interest Rate Decision Be Announced?
Global markets are counting down the hours to the December 10th FOMC meeting, with the general expectation that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points. However, investors' main interest has shifted from the decision itself to the signals Chairman Jerome Powell will give regarding 2026. Topics such as liquidity regulations, balance sheet management, and a possible leadership change are seen as key factors that will determine the long-term direction of US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced at 10:00 PM tonight. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at 10:30 PM. The Fed meeting is eagerly awaitedData released before this meeting supports expectations. The September PCE report showing annual inflation rising to 2.8%, while still above the target, reinforced the interpretation that the Fed is leaving room for gradual easing steps. Price pressures, which have accelerated since the fall, indicate the strongest increase seen since the spring of 2024. UBS Strategist Jonathan Pink says there is broad support for a rate cut within the committee, but emphasizes that a significant policy revision should not be expected. According to Pink, the main focus of the meeting will be how Powell frames the risks and the tone he uses regarding long-term expectations. Pink forecasts two rate cuts for 2025, while reminding that the 2026 discussions will be shaped by the approach of the new Fed chairman. On the liquidity side, more details may emerge. Pink suggests that the Fed may purchase between $40-60 billion worth of Treasury bonds monthly to stabilize repo markets and manage overall liquidity. This is seen as a sign of a period where balance sheet policy will be re-discussed.How will the crypto market be affected?In the crypto market, the prevailing view is that rate cuts will not have an immediate impact. Analyst LA MAN says that monetary policy easing alone will not improve the weak market structure. According to him, unless the technical structure strengthens, rate cuts will have a limited effect. He adds that a large-scale asset purchase program (QE) could change the direction, but the timing is uncertain. Denny Research President Ed Ardenni sees the current inflationary pressures as temporary. Ardenni believes that tariffs have led to short-term price increases, but the overall trend is towards cooling. While he argues that the economy does not need interest rate cuts, he also acknowledges that the market's expectation set is putting significant pressure on the Fed. According to him, easing measures could trigger a new period of volatility in stocks. He also states that Bitcoin is strongly affected by this policy, and its value is determined not only by its identity as a "store of value" but also by the interaction of regulation and monetary policy. In the crypto outlook extending to 2026, interest rates may not be the only determining factor. Analyst Leon Waidmann says that a low interest rate environment will encourage investors to take on more risks, thus supporting crypto activities. However, he notes that as traditional finance returns fall, stablecoin and on-chain dollar returns will also decline, and this will be felt more clearly in 2026. Tokenization, expanding stablecoin adoption, and potential regulatory steps (such as the Clarity Act) are listed among the long-term growth dynamics. At the time of writing, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies are trading slightly higher in a period of 24 hours.
