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Japan Shifts Gears into Crypto: 2026 Declared the “Digital Year”
Japan has sent one of its clearest and strongest messages yet regarding the integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial system. Speaking at the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the occasion of the new year, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that making digital assets more accessible to a wider audience through securities and commodity exchanges is critically important. Katayama officially declared 2026 as the "digital year," emphasizing that the Japanese financial system will play an active role in this transformation. According to local media agencies, Katayama stated that exchanges play a central role in the widespread public offering of blockchain-based digital assets. Recalling that cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are used by individual investors as a hedge against inflation in the US, Katayama indicated that similar products could be considered in Japan. Currently, there is no cryptocurrency ETF open to local investors in the country, but the statements suggest this may change. Katayama said that the government will not only remain in a regulatory position but will also provide full support to exchanges for the modernization of financial market infrastructure. Katayama stated that they aim to create an environment that will pave the way for the integrated use of fintech solutions with digital asset trading, adding that this approach could put Japan back in the spotlight in global financial competition.Japan continues to take steps towards cryptoThis opening towards crypto assets is also consistent with Japan's recent accelerated regulatory reforms. Last year, the Financial Services Agency, the country's financial supervisory authority, opened discussions on allowing banks to directly hold and trade crypto assets. During the same period, JPYC, the first stablecoin pegged to the Japanese yen, was also approved. These steps are paving the way for crypto to become a legitimate tool not only for individual investors but also for institutional finance.Another important step taken in November was the reclassification of 105 major crypto assets as "financial products" under existing financial legislation. This list includes the largest assets in the market, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. This change could pave the way for these tokens to be used more widely alongside traditional financial products.There is also a remarkable transformation on the tax side. Japan plans to reduce the tax rate applied to crypto gains from as high as 55% to 20%. This would place digital assets under the same tax regime as stocks and other traditional investment instruments. Furthermore, investors will be able to carry forward losses from crypto transactions for three years.These regulations have whetted the appetite of Japanese financial giants. SBI Holdings has long been waiting for a suitable legal framework for crypto ETFs. Meanwhile, Ripple is reportedly preparing to launch its stablecoin, RLUSD, with SBI support in the first quarter of 2026.Katayama describes 2026 as a turning point not only for digital assets but also for the chronic problems of the Japanese economy. In this process, supported by combating deflation, growth-oriented investments, and fiscal policies, digital finance is expected to play a significant leverage role.
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5 Jan 2026
Geopolitical Tensions Stirred the Crypto Market: Bitcoin Surpassed $93,000
Bitcoin made a notable surge in the cryptocurrency market in the first days of the new year, surpassing the $93,000 level on Monday. This movement, accompanied by a widespread increase in risk appetite, was not limited to Bitcoin; strong buying was also seen in many major crypto assets, especially Ethereum.Bitcoin experiences a riseAccording to the latest price movements, Bitcoin crossed the $93,000 threshold overnight, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 2%. Ethereum rose to levels around $3,190, while major altcoins such as XRP, BNB, and Solana also recorded gains ranging from 2% to 5%. The price chart in the image shows that Bitcoin has been following a gradual upward trend in recent days and is continuing its efforts to hold above $92,000. In the short term, the $93,000 region stands out as a psychological threshold, and the market is closely watching whether this level will be permanent. Indeed, the BTC price has retreated to the $92,500 level at the time of writing. The sudden volatility in the market has also had severe consequences in the derivatives market. According to Coinglass data, approximately $141 million worth of positions were liquidated in the last four hours alone. About $133 million of these liquidations consisted of short positions. The intense closing of short positions is considered one of the key factors accelerating the upward momentum of the price. Liquidations occur when investors experience insufficient collateral in leveraged transactions, resulting in the automatic closure of their positions. According to analysts, this rise is not unique to the crypto market. A similar picture is seen in Asian markets. South Korea's Kospi index and Japan's Nikkei index rose by more than 2%, highlighting a trend described as a "rally of everything" globally. Investors repositioning their portfolios in the first week of the new year is making assets with limited supply, such as Bitcoin, attractive again.Military operation in Venezuela Geopolitical developments also play a decisive role in pricing. News of the US military operation in Venezuela and the potential capture of leader Nicolás Maduro resonated in global markets over the weekend. With traditional markets closed, cryptocurrencies became one of the most liquid sectors pricing in the news flow. According to analysts, investors generally viewed these developments positively in terms of risky assets, supporting buying activity in the crypto market. Following these developments, oil prices saw limited pullbacks, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver experienced significant movements. The crypto market's ability to simultaneously price in both risk appetite and geopolitical uncertainty once again highlighted why Bitcoin excels during such periods. Looking ahead, investors are focused on the opening of US stock markets and the trajectory of macroeconomic data. The $95,000 level is particularly being watched as a significant resistance point for Bitcoin. A break above this level could accelerate the rise, while a short-term pause is anticipated.
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5 Jan 2026
Putin's Statement: Crypto Mining at Nuclear Power Plants is on the Table
Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised a striking claim regarding the future of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Europe's largest nuclear power plant. According to reports in the Russian press, Putin stated that the US has expressed interest in allowing cryptocurrency mining at the plant as part of ongoing peace negotiations. Kommersant reported that Washington is considering using the facility for energy-intensive cryptocurrency mining in exchange for a potential stake or partnership. The nuclear power plant is located in southeastern Ukraine and has been under Russian control since 2022. Before the war, ZNPP played a critical role in Ukraine's electricity supply and is of strategic importance not only in terms of energy production but also in terms of regional grid stability and security. Therefore, who will operate the plant in the future and under what model remains one of the most contentious issues in diplomatic contacts regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Kommersant, negotiations are underway between Russia and the United States regarding the joint management of the power plant, and a scenario in which Ukraine is completely excluded is among the options being considered. In contrast, the BBC reports that the US has proposed a tripartite operating model including Russia and Ukraine, with each side having an equal share. This approach aims to operate the plant within a technical and commercial framework, free from political tensions.50-50 Proposal from UkraineStatements from the Ukrainian side indicate a different balance. According to sources speaking to Reuters, the Kiev government has proposed a 50-50 joint venture operation of the plant between the US and Ukraine. According to this model, Ukraine would directly receive half of the electricity produced by the plant; the US would then decide on the use of the remaining portion alone. As reported by Euronews, the Ukrainian side is operating on the assumption that the US could allocate a portion of its share to Russia. Control over the ZNPP is not limited solely to energy production. The electricity supply to cities in southern Ukraine, regional grid stability, and nuclear safety are directly linked to this facility. Adding the cryptocurrency mining aspect further complicates the matter. Nuclear power plants offer uninterrupted and relatively low-cost electricity production, making them an attractive infrastructure, especially for mining energy-intensive crypto assets like Bitcoin. However, uncertainties surrounding the plant's status make it difficult to implement such projects in the short term. A clear agreement has not yet been reached between the parties. Therefore, the idea of cryptocurrency mining at ZNPP is currently considered part of diplomatic negotiations. Without a change in the military situation and political balance on the ground, such an investment seems unlikely to materialize. Meanwhile, ceasefire efforts are gaining momentum. As the war enters its fourth year, US President Donald Trump has intensified diplomatic contacts for a peace agreement. Territorial arrangements, security guarantees, and economic cooperation are among the key topics in these discussions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters that progress had been made with the US on a peace plan consisting of approximately 20 points. Putin, meanwhile, indicated that they were open to some concessions, but maintained his firm stance on the Donbas region.
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26 Dec 2025
US GDP Surprise, Bitcoin Remains Flat
The latest macroeconomic data released from the US revealed that the economy performed stronger than expected in the third quarter of 2025. According to preliminary data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. This rate surpassed the 3.8 percent growth recorded in the second quarter, indicating continued momentum in the economy. Thus, the US economy entered the second half of the year with reduced recession fears. Looking at the details of the data, it appears that growth was primarily fueled by consumer spending, a recovery in exports, and increased government spending. In particular, the strong performance of household consumption indicated resilience in domestic demand despite the high interest rate environment. Increased government spending and exports were also among the factors supporting growth. However, weakness was observed on the investment front. The decline in fixed capital investments raised questions about the sustainability of the growth composition going forward. The GDP price index exceeding expectations showed that the risks on the inflation front have not completely disappeared. This outlook strengthened expectations that the Fed may take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts. While markets continue to foresee approximately two interest rate cuts in total for 2026, the lack of a clear expectation of a cut for 2027 is noteworthy. The negative surprises seen in durable goods data also indicated that tight financial conditions continue to put pressure on some sectors.Bitcoin and altcoins are trading sidewaysDespite this strong macroeconomic picture, there was no significant price change in the cryptocurrency market. The Bitcoin price traded sideways in the 87,000-88,000 dollar range at the time the data was released. Apart from the limited fluctuations seen in the intraday chart, it was noteworthy that the price did not show a strong breakout either upwards or downwards. Although Bitcoin retreated by approximately 2 percent in the 24-hour period, this movement is considered to be related to short-term technical corrections rather than macroeconomic data. The chart suggests the market has largely priced in the US growth data. Strong GDP figures reduce recession risks, while persistently high inflation and the possibility of delayed interest rate cuts have limited buying appetite in the Bitcoin market. Therefore, investors appear to be cautious and a clear direction has not yet emerged.
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23 Dec 2025
US Senate Approves: Crypto-Friendly Figure to Head CFTC
A significant regulatory change affecting cryptocurrency markets in the US has passed the Senate. The US Senate officially confirmed lawyer Mike Selig, known for his crypto-friendly approach, as the new chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the same vote, Travis Hill was also appointed as the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). These appointments were approved by a vote of 53 to 43, following a broad list of approximately 100 candidates nominated by the Donald Trump administration for various government agencies. Why is Mike Selig's appointment as CFTC chairman significant?Mike Selig's rise to the CFTC chairmanship comes at a critical time, particularly for cryptocurrency markets. Having previously served on both the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Selig stands out as an experienced figure in cryptocurrency regulation. Selig, who served as the chief legal counsel at the SEC's Crypto Task Force, made it clear when he was nominated in October that he would make crypto a top priority during his term.Speaking at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee, Selig highlighted the lack of clear and predictable regulations for cryptocurrencies. The new CFTC Chairman emphasized the need to balance consumer protection with the ability of software developers and entrepreneurs to innovate during the regulatory process. This approach is interpreted as a significant message for the US crypto market, which has long faced criticism for "regulatory uncertainty."The expansion of the CFTC's authority is also on the agenda. A bill introduced to the Senate in November and supported by both parties aims to shift the primary oversight responsibility for crypto markets from the SEC to the CFTC. If the bill becomes law, the CFTC will assume a much more decisive role, particularly in spot crypto markets. Selig's chairmanship will be key in shaping this transition process.On the other hand, Travis Hill's appointment as head of the FDIC is also being closely watched by the crypto sector. Hill, during his tenure, adopted a more moderate approach to crypto and raised allegations in congressional hearings that crypto-related companies were being excluded from the banking system. The FDIC is expected to have a say in how stablecoin issuers and crypto companies' banking relationships are regulated. The new appointments were generally well-received in the industry. Coinbase's policy director, Faryar Shirzad, stated that Selig's experience in the crypto space and his federal regulatory background would bring fairness and clarity to the US crypto markets. Cody Carbone, CEO of Digital Chamber, which lobbies for digital assets, said that Selig's mastery of technical matters would contribute to a healthier regulatory framework. Alexander Grieve, a Paradigm executive, commented, "The markets are in safe hands." Mike Selig's term will end in April 2029. After taking the oath, Selig will take over from interim chair Caroline Pham. Due to resignations throughout the year, the CFTC is currently operating with only one commissioner, despite having the standard five-member structure. Travis Hill will head the FDIC for the next five years.
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19 Dec 2025
Crypto Relief After CPI Increase: Bitcoin in the $88,000 Range
Bitcoin experienced volatile trading before the release of US November inflation data, but reacted upwards after the CPI came in below expectations. The BTC price, which was trying to hold above the $87,000 level earlier in the day, settled in the $88,000 range following the data release and subsequent buying activity. Bitcoin price fluctuates in a narrow rangeSince the beginning of the week, the cryptocurrency market has been struggling to find direction. Bitcoin came under pressure after losing the psychological $90,000 threshold earlier in the week, and many altcoins followed suit. This cautious atmosphere in the market led to limited risk appetite before the release of US CPI data. Investors were focused on this critical data to clarify the impact of inflation on the Fed's interest rate path.The November CPI data, released at 16:30 Turkish time, showed an annual rate of 2.7 percent. Market expectations were at 3.1%, while the previous month's data was recorded at 3.0%. The significantly lower-than-expected inflation figure strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance in the coming period. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in at 224,000, in line with expectations, and there were no further surprises in the labor market. This situation led to short-term buying in Bitcoin. BTC, which was stabilizing around $87,000 before the data release, reacted upwards after the announcement, rising above the $88,000 level. As seen in the image, the price is trading near its intraday highs, while volatility remains high. Analyses published before the data release had a cautious tone. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, stated that Bitcoin positioning was clearly bearish. According to Forster, 30-day BTC volatility is climbing back to around 45%, while the skew in the options market is hovering around -5%. This outlook indicated that investors continued to price in downside risks throughout the first quarter of the year. The analyst assessed the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 at approximately 30 percent, and the probability of returning to all-time highs at around 10 percent. On the technical side, the pre-CPI picture was also generating weak signals. Bitcoin had experienced a pullback of approximately 7 percent in recent days after being rejected from the falling trend line. However, with the inflation data falling below expectations, a space has emerged for the market to reposition itself in the short term. If Bitcoin maintains its closing above $85,500, a technical recovery towards the $94,000 level remains a possibility. In the alternative scenario, the loss of this support could lead to the psychological threshold of $80,000 coming back into play. In summary, the November CPI data created a short-term breathing space for the crypto market. While Bitcoin's initial reaction was positive, both the continuation of macroeconomic data and the technical levels need to be closely monitored for the medium-term direction. In this period of high volatility, market sensitivity to Fed expectations remains a key factor.
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18 Dec 2025
Fed Gives Green Light to Crypto: 2023 Restrictions Lifted
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has withdrawn its 2023 guidance limiting interaction with crypto assets, marking a significant shift in its approach to innovation within the banking system. This decision allows banks under Fed supervision, particularly uninsured state banks, to operate more flexibly with cryptocurrencies and similar digital financial products. This move comes as US regulators have recently adopted a more positive stance towards digital assets, making it a closely watched development for the sector.What did the 2023 guidance cover?The guidance, published in 2023, stipulated that uninsured banks would be subject to the same rules as banks with federal deposit insurance. Based on the principle that "like pays like pays," this approach effectively prevented uninsured banks from conducting activities not permitted for national banks, such as crypto services. This created significant restrictions, particularly for crypto-focused banks, in terms of Fed membership and access to central bank systems. The Fed cited significant changes in the financial system over the past two years and the institution's evolving understanding of innovative products as reasons for withdrawing the guidance. The statement read, "The 2023 policy statement is no longer appropriate and has therefore been withdrawn." According to the Fed, the current framework is outdated in the face of rapidly evolving financial technologies. One of the first reactions from the sector came from Caitlin Long, CEO of the crypto-friendly Custodia Bank. In a post on social media, Long reminded that the 2023 guidance was used as the primary reason for rejecting her bank's application to open a "master account" with the Fed. A master account allows a financial institution to hold an account directly with the Fed and access the central bank's payment systems without the need for an intermediary. Long argued that the Fed used the guidance as a basis for the Custodia decision even before it officially came into effect, claiming this was illegal. The Fed's new move was not limited to simply revoking the old guidance. The institution also released a new policy framework for “innovative activities” for both insured and uninsured state banks under Fed supervision. This framework allows banks to launch products and services based on new technologies, such as cryptocurrencies, provided they meet specified risk management and compliance standards. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman emphasized that the goal of the new approach is to keep the banking sector both safe and modern. According to Bowman, when implemented responsibly, new technologies increase efficiency for banks and enable them to offer better products to customers. The Fed's goal is to encourage innovation without compromising the principles of financial stability and soundness. However, the decision was not unanimous within the Fed. Fed Board Member Michael Barr dissented, arguing that maintaining the principle of level treatment among banks is critical to preventing regulatory arbitrage. He stated that the new policy could encourage banks to adopt looser regulations, creating incentives incompatible with financial stability. Barr has been associated with the “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” debates in the past, which aimed to exclude crypto companies from the banking system, but he has also served as an advisor at Ripple and is known for supporting responsible stablecoin regulation.
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18 Dec 2025
US November Employment Exceeds Expectations, Unemployment Rises: How Did Bitcoin React?
The latest data on the US labor market indicates that the slowdown in the economy is becoming more pronounced. In November, non-farm employment increased by 64,000 people, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching its highest level in four years. The data had been delayed due to the government shutdown in Washington, and this delay revealed a weaker picture of the labor market than expected.According to the report released Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the increase in non-farm employment in November was slightly above economists' expectations. Market expectations were for an increase of 50,000 people. However, although the headline figure exceeded expectations, the rise in the unemployment rate and revisions to the previous month indicate a weakening overall trend in the labor market.With the November data, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. This rate exceeded both the market expectation of 4.4% and the 4.4% recorded in September. Thus, the unemployment rate in the US reached its highest level in almost four years. Rising unemployment has reinforced concerns that demand in the labor market is gradually cooling.Employment data for October presented an even more striking picture. According to the data, employment decreased by 105,000 people in October. In September, employment increased by 119,000 people. This sharp drop in October is largely attributed to the US federal government shutdown. The temporary absence of public employees from their jobs and disruptions to some data collection processes put downward pressure on the figures.When the November and October data are considered together, it is seen that the US labor market has shown a more fragile appearance than expected in recent months. The slowdown in the pace of employment growth and the rise in the unemployment rate indicate that signals of a cooling in the economy are strengthening.How did Bitcoin move?Following the release of the data, limited reactions were observed in financial markets. Bitcoin gave back some of the small gains it had recorded before the report, briefly falling to the $87,000 level. US stock futures indices, on the other hand, shifted slightly from positive to slightly negative. On the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained flat at 4.17 percent. Prior to the employment data, markets were pricing in a 75 percent probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. Following the release of the data, there was no significant change in these expectations. This indicates that investors do not expect a sudden shift in the Fed's monetary policy in the short term. The overall picture shows that the US economy has not entered a strong contraction, but there has been a significant loss of momentum in the labor market. New employment and inflation data to be released in the coming months will continue to be critical for expectations regarding the Fed's policy steps.
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16 Dec 2025
Fed Decision Triggers Volatility in Crypto Market: Bitcoin and Altcoins Shaken
The crypto market entered a period of uncertainty following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a quarter-point interest rate cut. Initially welcomed, the decision was quickly digested due to internal committee disagreements and the lack of clear indications of further easing; risk appetite weakened, and prices turned down again. Futures data, however, shows that traders have already shifted to new expectations, pricing in a near 40% probability of a cut by March. This situation has carried the market into the final weeks of the year on an uncertain footing. At the FOMC meeting, the federal funds range was lowered to 3.5-3.75. The vote passed 9-3; two regional presidents opposed the cut, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocated for a more aggressive half-point reduction. The emphasis on "carefully evaluating incoming data" was closely watched, as it is language used in the past during periods of slowing interest rate cut cycles. This tone dampened hopes for further easing. Bitcoin experienced sharp fluctuations between $93,200 and $91,700 after the decision; Ethereum also exhibited similar volatility in the $3,340-$3,440 range. Solana, XRP, and BNB were also caught in the same fluctuations. The Fed's $40 billion Treasury bond purchases, starting on December 12th, have brought the "quantitative easing" debate back to the forefront. A similar program in 2019 was implemented for reserve management purposes; today, it is being discussed that its effect may be limited but potentially directional. What do the experts say?Analyst comments reflect the confusion in the market. According to the CryptoQuant team, BTC has the potential to break through the $99,000 and $102,000 resistance levels and head towards $112,000 if the Fed becomes more clearly "dovish." However, this requires not only further rate cuts but also a more consistent guide from the Fed regarding its inflation path until 2026. Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau stated that the decision being less hawkish than expected gave the market a brief respite, but the fact that only one rate cut was predicted dampened this relief. Another view came from David Hernandez of 21Shares; according to Hernandez, the rate cut itself is the first sign that could increase risk appetite. "Today's rate cut is a lifeline thrown to sinking Bitcoin," he says, recalling the historical tendency of cheaper liquidity to flow into crypto. However, the price action in the market did not immediately confirm Hernandez's optimism. Bitcoin retreated to the $90,000 threshold the morning after the decision. After a brief jump above $94,500 on Tuesday, BTC returned to the middle band after failing to break this resistance. Over $514 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours; losses from long positions were approximately three times greater than those from short positions.
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11 Dec 2025
Crypto Markets Also Await: When Will the Fed Interest Rate Decision Be Announced?
Global markets are counting down the hours to the December 10th FOMC meeting, with the general expectation that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points. However, investors' main interest has shifted from the decision itself to the signals Chairman Jerome Powell will give regarding 2026. Topics such as liquidity regulations, balance sheet management, and a possible leadership change are seen as key factors that will determine the long-term direction of US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced at 10:00 PM tonight. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at 10:30 PM. The Fed meeting is eagerly awaitedData released before this meeting supports expectations. The September PCE report showing annual inflation rising to 2.8%, while still above the target, reinforced the interpretation that the Fed is leaving room for gradual easing steps. Price pressures, which have accelerated since the fall, indicate the strongest increase seen since the spring of 2024. UBS Strategist Jonathan Pink says there is broad support for a rate cut within the committee, but emphasizes that a significant policy revision should not be expected. According to Pink, the main focus of the meeting will be how Powell frames the risks and the tone he uses regarding long-term expectations. Pink forecasts two rate cuts for 2025, while reminding that the 2026 discussions will be shaped by the approach of the new Fed chairman. On the liquidity side, more details may emerge. Pink suggests that the Fed may purchase between $40-60 billion worth of Treasury bonds monthly to stabilize repo markets and manage overall liquidity. This is seen as a sign of a period where balance sheet policy will be re-discussed.How will the crypto market be affected?In the crypto market, the prevailing view is that rate cuts will not have an immediate impact. Analyst LA MAN says that monetary policy easing alone will not improve the weak market structure. According to him, unless the technical structure strengthens, rate cuts will have a limited effect. He adds that a large-scale asset purchase program (QE) could change the direction, but the timing is uncertain. Denny Research President Ed Ardenni sees the current inflationary pressures as temporary. Ardenni believes that tariffs have led to short-term price increases, but the overall trend is towards cooling. While he argues that the economy does not need interest rate cuts, he also acknowledges that the market's expectation set is putting significant pressure on the Fed. According to him, easing measures could trigger a new period of volatility in stocks. He also states that Bitcoin is strongly affected by this policy, and its value is determined not only by its identity as a "store of value" but also by the interaction of regulation and monetary policy. In the crypto outlook extending to 2026, interest rates may not be the only determining factor. Analyst Leon Waidmann says that a low interest rate environment will encourage investors to take on more risks, thus supporting crypto activities. However, he notes that as traditional finance returns fall, stablecoin and on-chain dollar returns will also decline, and this will be felt more clearly in 2026. Tokenization, expanding stablecoin adoption, and potential regulatory steps (such as the Clarity Act) are listed among the long-term growth dynamics. At the time of writing, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies are trading slightly higher in a period of 24 hours.
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10 Dec 2025
Bitcoin Starts Fed Week Above $91,000: What Are the Expectations?
Bitcoin opened the new week above $91,300, with global markets focused on the US Federal Reserve. Asian stock markets opened positively, and investors are awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. A 25 basis point rate cut has largely been priced in, but cautious messages from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are expected to dampen risk appetite.In Asia, technology stocks led a limited rally; the MSCI Asia index rose approximately 0.2 percent. US futures retreated slightly, while the dollar index showed a weaker tone. This trend also shaped the direction of crypto markets.Bitcoin Faces Resistance as It Approaches $94,000Bitcoin continued last week's recovery, rising 2 percent in the last 24 hours, but is facing resistance as it approaches the $94,000 region. Analysts indicate that if the current momentum holds, the price could move towards the $98,000-$100,000 range. Ethereum saw a 3 percent daily increase to $3,135. While the last week's performance exceeded 10 percent, there are comments that Ethereum has strengthened technically after the development team completed the Fusaka update. BNB, Solana, stETH, and XRP also saw slight increases. In contrast, Cardano was the weakest link today, falling 1.4 percent.Market sentiment remains fragileDespite the recovery in the crypto market, overall sentiment remains fragile. CryptoQuant's Bull Score index falling to zero indicates that the market is still experiencing the effects of a bear cycle. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that unless new liquidity enters the market, the upward trend may weaken, and the $55,000-$70,000 range is a potential price target for the next year. K33 Research, on the other hand, highlights some factors that could be supportive in the medium term; it is noted that 401(k) regulation changes expected at the beginning of 2026 could generate corporate retirement flows into Bitcoin.Fed Week: Expectations are strong, tone is cautiousIn global markets, the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision remains the main driver. Recent economic data, particularly the consistent monthly increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, has strengthened the likelihood of an interest rate cut. Money markets are pricing in an 88% probability that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points this week. Improved investor confidence data and a decline in inflation expectations also support this expectation.Still, analysts emphasize that a cautious tone may prevail in the Fed's forward-looking communications, which could increase volatility in risky assets. The mixed start to the week in global stock markets also reflects the impact of these expectations. Bitcoin's price behavior in recent months is reminiscent of the corrections seen in past cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich notes that the market has already experienced a sharp pullback spanning two months, and volatility may increase again as clarity on monetary policy is provided.
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8 Dec 2025
All Eyes on Critical US Inflation Data: What's in Store for Cryptocurrencies?
Today's release of the core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE) data in the US has become the most critical headline that will determine the weekly direction of the crypto market. A higher-than-expected increase in the core PCE, the Fed's most important inflation indicator, could strengthen the case of members advocating for tight monetary policy and dampen risk appetite in the markets. Conversely, a softer data release could push bond yields lower, supporting a short-term recovery in Bitcoin and other major crypto assets.All Eyes on the PCEAccording to market forecasts, core PCE is expected to have increased by 2.9% year-over-year in September. This rate represents the 55th consecutive month above the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation outlook is reinforcing the "hawkish" wing of the committee's call for slower rate cuts. However, despite all the pressure, markets are almost certainly pricing in a 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the December 10th meeting.On the volatility front, there's a surprising calm. According to Volmex data, Bitcoin's one-day implied volatility index (BVIV) is trading at around 36%. This rate suggests the price could move within a normal range of approximately 1.88% over the next 24 hours. In other words, markets are not significantly pricing in panic ahead of critical data.Analysts attribute this to the expectation that the Fed will initiate a rate cut regardless of the data results. The CME FedWatch Tool also supports this; the possibility of a 25bp rate cut appears to be "completed" pricing.The range observed on Bitcoin is also noteworthy. The price has been stuck between the $92,000 and $94,000 range for the past two days. According to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev, a softer PCE data could push the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%, potentially allowing BTC to attempt another break above $94,000. In the opposite scenario, where the data exceeds expectations, the market could return to a sideways-to-conservative mode until the Fed's meeting to clarify its roadmap. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is struggling to hold above $92,000. ING analysts, however, warn that a potential interest rate cut may not be permanent. They believe any short-term pullbacks in interest rates could quickly reverse if the data flow doesn't signal a sustained easing.Volatility is slightly higher on the altcoin front. Ether's one-day implied volatility has risen to 57.23%, indicating a price movement of approximately 3%. For Solana, this figure is 3.86%, and for XRP, it's 4.3%. This suggests that the PCE data could trigger broader price volatility in altcoins.The crypto market's final trading day of the week is entirely focused on the outcome of this data. In addition to showing the Fed’s short-term policy, the PCE figure is seen as the key data that will determine the tight squeeze that Bitcoin is trying to break out of and the short-term price channels in altcoins.
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5 Dec 2025
Binance and CZ Face October 7 Lawsuit: ‘They Were Turned Away for Years
Binance and its co-founder, Changpeng Zhao, are attempting to emerge from the shadow of past accusations, but this time, they face a much more serious lawsuit. More than 300 people, mostly victims and their families of the October 7, 2023, attack, filed in North Dakota, accuse the world's largest crypto exchange and its executives of "knowingly supporting terrorist organizations."The lawsuit's language is extremely harsh. The documents allege that Binance and Zhao "systematically assisted organizations such as Hamas, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah, and PIJ over the years." This assistance allegedly enabled the concealment and transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars in crypto assets, and these activities strengthened the groundwork for the October 7 attacks.The documents indicate that Hamas conducted long-term preparations prior to the attacks. Tunnels, weapons, communication networks… According to the file, a significant portion of the organization's crypto needs were met through Binance throughout this period. Prosecutors argue that this was not a "mistake," but the result of deliberate choices on the part of the exchange.The lawsuit alleges that Binance was deliberately positioned as an attractive platform for criminal organizations. It states that even CZ's statements years ago, "Binance's headquarters is wherever I am," served as a "message" to money launderers. The same document also highlights an internal message from former compliance manager Samuel Lin: "Our users come here for crime." A team member humorously responded, "Are you having trouble laundering drug money? Come to Binance, we're waiting for you."Hamas's 2019 "Open a Binance Account" callThe lawsuit notes that in 2019, donations to Hamas's official website were instructed to open a Binance account. Moreover, it is alleged that independent analysts reported that certain wallets were linked to Hamas, but Binance protected these accounts rather than intervening.More importantly, the petition alleges that these practices are still ongoing. It alleges that even after Binance's $4.3 billion settlement with the US Department of Justice in 2023, some related wallets continued to conduct transactions. Blockchain analysis even indicates that over $50 million in suspicious transfers occurred after this date.Changpeng Zhao is no longer CEO, but the plaintiffs claim he retains influence over the company and continues to influence critical decisions. The documents also allege that some meeting minutes were not kept and certain records were deleted at Zhao's direction.The plaintiffs are seeking both monetary damages and a trial. Binance, however, is currently silent. In similar cases, the company has previously maintained that it complies with international sanctions and that terrorist organizations do not use crypto on a large scale.
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25 Nov 2025
Trump-Musk Project DOGE Quietly Shut Down
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), established with great fanfare during the second term of the Trump administration in the US and generating widespread buzz in both political and technological circles, was quietly shut down. The department, which launched in January, was supposed to operate until July 2026; however, it was confirmed that it had ceased operations entirely eight months before the planned deadline. Thus, DOGE, which had been brought to the forefront by the high-profile promotions of Trump and Elon Musk, quickly vanished into obscurity after a rapid rise.What was DOGE's purpose?DOGE, at its inception, was touted as "reducing government spending, increasing efficiency, and eliminating unnecessary regulations." A few days after winning the election, Trump declared the department a cornerstone of his administration, while Musk frequently posted in support of DOGE on social media. A Dogecoin logo even appeared on the department's website for a time, sparking a brief price surge in the crypto market. This public confusion fueled misperceptions that DOGE was linked to Dogecoin. DOGE was introduced in February 2025 However, the department's shine was short-lived. The signs began to become clear as relations between Musk and Trump deteriorated. Musk distanced himself from Washington during the first half of the year; in May, he confirmed his complete severance of ties with DOGE. His failure to make a single statement about DOGE since then was among the early signs that the process was effectively over. During this hiatus, the department's activities slowed, promised savings figures couldn't be verified, and internal accountability processes became unclear.By the fall, Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor declared that DOGE "no longer exists as a centralized entity." Thus, the unit's operations were completely halted, and its authority was dispersed to other federal agencies. This effectively ensured that DOGE, while still legally defined, had practically disappeared.With DOGE's closure, a significant portion of its staff was shifted to federal agencies. Entrepreneur Joe Gebbia took over as head of the National Design Studio, which was supposed to develop the government's digital design standards. Amy Gleason was appointed as a consultant to the Department of Health and Human Services. At the same department, Zachary Terrell became technology director, while Rachel Riley moved to the Office of Naval Research. These transitions demonstrate that, despite DOGE's closure, its staff were quickly integrated into the system.The department's short lifespan also opened the door to legal disputes. A multi-state lawsuit alleged that DOGE personnel were given "excessively broad" access to federal payments systems within the Treasury. These systems handle critical funding streams such as Social Security, veterans' benefits, and Medicaid reimbursements. The allegations, coupled with Musk's public statements advocating for cuts to certain social spending, further fueled the debate.DOGE's closure also sparked mixed reactions in the markets. Some analysts noted that the potential for cuts to federal programs poses a risk to contractors. Within the crypto community, DOGE's closure has rekindled old debates about Dogecoin; the project's name, inevitably similar to a meme coin, has led to increased social media engagement.Despite this, the White House appears to have maintained its agenda of reducing regulations and bureaucratic reform. AI-powered regulatory sweeps are still ongoing, and Musk's reappearances in Washington are raising questions about these policies.
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24 Nov 2025
Fed Official's "Near-Term" Message Sparks Market: Bitcoin Below $84,000
Remarks by New York Fed President John Williams, a senior official at the US Federal Reserve, abruptly changed the market sentiment on Friday. While Williams acknowledged that inflationary progress has "temporarily stalled," he hinted that the Fed may cut interest rates in the near future. While this shift in tone has somewhat restored investors' risk appetite, the selling pressure on Bitcoin has not completely subsided.The cryptocurrency fluctuated sharply between $83,000 and $84,000 during the day, with a 24-hour decline of 8.9%. While the BTC/USD pair showed brief recoveries, the chart reveals that the overall downward trend remains evident. Williams' speech consisted of remarks prepared for an event at the Central Bank of Chile. The renowned economist stated that they estimate the current inflation rate to be approximately 2.75% and emphasized the need to return to the Fed's long-term target of 2% in a "sustainable" manner. However, his statement that the tariffs had a temporary impact on prices and were not expected to translate into permanent inflation drew attention in the market."I believe monetary policy is still relatively restrictive. Therefore, there is still room for some adjustments to the target interest rate range in the near term," Williams said, directly impacting expectations for the Fed's December meeting.Interest Rate Change Expectations for DecemberActivity in derivatives markets increased following these announcements. Traders' positions expecting a December rate cut rose rapidly, pushing the probability above 70%. However, disagreements within the Fed remain evident. According to recent statements, some policymakers are not open to a rate cut until there is clearer evidence that inflation will fall to the 2% target.Williams, however, takes a more "soft" line amid this debate. He states that the labor market is no longer as tight as it was during the pandemic, and that the rise of the unemployment rate to 4.4% is not a major alarm bell for the economy. He emphasizes the importance of achieving the Fed's primary goal of price stability while simultaneously avoiding unnecessary risks to its maximum employment target.On the cryptocurrency side, pricing is quite fragile. Volatility in the dollar index and the search for direction in US bond yields continue to put pressure on Bitcoin. The sharp sell-off seen on the chart deepened, particularly during the Asian session. The pullback to $81,000 during the day increased volumes in the spot market and triggered liquidations in leveraged positions.Nevertheless, some analysts say that the possibility of a "near-term" Fed rate cut could be supportive for Bitcoin in the medium term. However, the market is currently trading under the shadow of macro uncertainty and short-term selling pressure.Under current conditions, the $82,000-$81,000 range represents short-term support for BTC, while the $85,000-$87,000 range represents the first strong resistance zone. Volatility is expected to increase further as the Fed approaches its December meeting.
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21 Nov 2025