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Browse all Politics related articles and news. The latest news, analysis, and insights on Politics.
US Inflation Data Released: How Bitcoin React?
While global markets continue to search for direction, macroeconomic data is further complicating the process. The latest inflation data released in the US added to this uncertain picture, reshaping pricing across a wide range of markets, from stocks and bonds to commodities and cryptocurrencies.US Inflation Data ReleasedUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January came in slightly below expectations. Annual CPI was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5%, while the monthly increase was 0.2%. On the core CPI side, the annual rate came in at 2.5%, in line with expectations, while the monthly increase was 0.3%. In particular, the fact that core inflation fell to its lowest level since March 2021 brought the possibility of interest rate cuts back to the forefront in the markets.On the other hand, the previously released non-farm payroll data in the US came in above expectations, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. The concentration of job growth primarily in the healthcare sector and the limited recovery in manufacturing have not completely eliminated questions about the quality of economic growth. This situation has led to a cautious stance regarding expectations for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path.Looking at pricing in money markets, the expectation that the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged in March remains strong. The probability of a possible rate cut in June has decreased somewhat compared to previous weeks. Analysts state that despite the slowdown in inflation data, the Fed may not act hastily, and that developments in the labor market will be closely monitored.As a result of these developments, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.09%, testing its lowest level in recent weeks. The dollar index remained relatively stable around 96.9. Driven by safe-haven demand, the price of gold recovered from the previous day's sharp drop to $4,965 per ounce, while silver also recouped some of its losses. On the technology stock side, fragility was noticeable. The reported delay in Apple's Siri update and accounting allegations concerning Meta increased selling pressure in the technology sector, already overshadowed by "high valuation" discussions. Apple shares closed the day down nearly 5%, while leading companies such as Meta, Nvidia, and Palantir also saw losses. These developments led to significant declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.How did the cryptocurrency markets react?The cryptocurrency market also felt the effects of this global volatility. Bitcoin (BTC), which had stabilized around $67,000, rose to $67,700 shortly before the data release. Immediately after the data was released, it fell back to $66,000. While the lower-than-expected inflation data supported risk appetite in the short term, investors' cautious stance caused volatility to continue.
US Employment Data Exceeds Expectations, Bitcoin Reacts Instantly
The first non-farm payrolls data for 2026 in the US exceeded expectations, refocusing global market attention on the macroeconomic outlook. According to the report released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 130,000 new jobs were added to the economy in January. Market expectations were only around 70,000. This strong data, following a 48,000 increase in December, indicates a significant acceleration in employment.The unemployment rate also came in below expectations. In January, unemployment fell to 4.3%, while market forecasts predicted it would remain stable at 4.4%. The unemployment rate was also 4.4% in December. Both the higher-than-expected increase in employment and the decrease in unemployment demonstrate the resilience of the US economy at the beginning of the year. Following the release of the data, the initial market reaction was shaped by expectations regarding interest rates. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), which implemented multiple interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025, kept its policy rate unchanged at its January meeting and signaled that it was not keen on another cut in March. Prior to the employment data, the probability of a March rate cut was priced at 21% in interest rate markets. According to CME FedWatch data, this probability dropped to 19% after the strong employment figures. Markets have now pushed back the previously expected rate cut, which was initially projected for as early as June, to July.There was also movement in the bond and dollar markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose five basis points to 4.20%. The dollar index, which had been weak during the day, recovered after the data. Moderate increases were observed in US stock futures indices. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.55%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.5%.How was the crypto market affected?The cryptocurrency market also reacted quickly to the macroeconomic data. Bitcoin, which traded in a narrow range near the $69,000 level throughout the week, retreated to around $67,000 before the data release. Immediately following the announcement of strong employment figures, the price recovered towards the $67,500 level. Despite this, Bitcoin's performance over the last 24 hours remains approximately 2% lower. Looking at the chart, it's clear that downward pressure was evident before the data release, with sales accelerating, especially in the morning hours. However, it's noteworthy that the price reacted from the $67,000 region after the employment figures, making an upward move. This movement shows that investors initially interpreted the data as a signal of "economic strength." On the other hand, the possibility that strong employment could delay Fed interest rate cuts stands out as a factor that could put pressure on risky assets in the medium term. Looking at the overall picture, the US economy performed stronger than expected in the first month of the year. This creates room for the Fed to maintain its cautious stance, while also indicating that volatility may continue in both the stock and crypto markets. Markets will now focus on inflation data and new guidance from Fed members.
Crypto Project Close to Trump Under Scrutiny: UAE Investment Investigated
A senior Democrat in the US Congress has launched a notable investigation into World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a cryptocurrency project linked to Donald Trump. Representative Ro Khanna has requested comprehensive information and documents from the project, arguing that a $500 million investment, allegedly from an entity linked to the UAE royal family, poses serious risks to both national security and the constitution.WLFI is under investigationKhanna serves as a senior member of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition and the Chinese Communist Party. In a formal letter sent on Wednesday, he posed numerous questions to Zach Witkoff, a co-founder of World Liberty Financial. The letter also cited a previous Wall Street Journal report alleging that a 49% stake in WLFI was acquired by an entity called Aryam Investment 1. This investment is said to be controlled by an entity linked to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE's National Security Advisor and brother of the country's leader. According to the report, the agreement was signed just four days before Trump took office and involved a $250 million upfront payment. It is alleged that $187 million of this amount went to companies linked to the Trump family, and at least $31 million to entities associated with Steve Witkoff.Khanna's letter specifically highlights the Chinese connections. It notes that companies like G42 and MGX, under Tahnoon's control, have had past dealings with Chinese firms, and that following this investment, the US approved export licenses to the UAE for advanced AI chips. These chips have long been under strict control to prevent technology leakage to China.The letter also scrutinizes MGX's $2 billion investment in Binance in March 2025. It states that this transaction was carried out using WLFI's USD1 stablecoin, and that Tahnoon was in contact with Trump in Washington during the same period. The fact that Binance founder Changpeng Zhao is expected to receive a presidential pardon in October 2025, shortly before the chip export approvals, is among the factors raising questions. Khanna argues that when all these developments are considered together, it could constitute not only an ethical scandal but also a violation of the "emoluments clause" of the US Constitution, which prohibits obtaining benefits from foreign governments. In this context, the WLFI is asked to respond to 16 separate questions by March 1, 2026, including ownership structure, investment agreements, due diligence studies with UAE-linked institutions, China-sourced revenues, and potential impacts on policy processes. The requested documents include contracts with Aryam Investment 1, correspondence regarding the Binance deal, and conflict of interest policies. The letter states, "These transactions and investments not only appear improper; they also raise suspicions of illegality. At a time when strategic competition with China is so critical, the American people deserve full transparency." World Liberty Financial has not yet issued any official statement to the public.
Trump's Fed nominee Kevin Warsh: What does this mean for crypto?
US President Donald Trump officially announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Trump shared the name of the successor to current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, with the public on Friday. The nomination confirms market expectations that have been gaining momentum in recent days and is being closely followed in the financial and cryptocurrency markets.Trump made a statement on the matterIn a post on Truth Social, Trump reminded that Warsh previously served on the Fed Board of Governors, worked as a researcher at the Hoover Institution, and taught at Stanford University's Business School. He also emphasized that Warsh served as a partner in the Duquesne Family Office with renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller. Trump stated, "I have known him for a long time, and I have no doubt that we will remember him as one of the best chairmen of the Fed." Warsh, 55, served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006–2011 under George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Previously a banker at Morgan Stanley, Warsh is a well-known figure in Washington's economic policy circles. While Trump's official nomination has ended weeks of uncertainty, Warsh still needs to pass the Senate confirmation process to take office. Following confirmation, Warsh could replace Powell for a four-year term. Prior to the nomination announcement, there was significant activity in the prediction markets. On Thursday night, the probability of Warsh becoming Fed chairman rose to 95% on Polymarket, with similar rates seen on Kalshi. This sharp rise occurred as signals strengthened that Trump would announce his nomination. What is Warsh's stance in the crypto space?Warsh's background is also noteworthy from the perspective of the crypto markets. Warsh previously invested in Basis, an algorithmic stablecoin project, and advised Electric Capital, a venture capital firm focused on crypto and blockchain. He is also associated with Bitwise, a crypto index manager, as an investor and advisor. However, Warsh maintains a cautious approach to digital assets. In a speech last year, he stated that he does not see Bitcoin as an alternative to the dollar, but that it could be an important signaling tool for policymakers. On the monetary policy side, Warsh is generally considered a "hawk." During his previous tenure at the Fed, he frequently emphasized inflation risks and was critical of quantitative easing policies and the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. More recently, he has argued that AI-driven productivity increases could alleviate inflationary pressures, suggesting that interest rate cuts could be considered under certain conditions. Trump's shortlist previously included names like Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder. However, the clear shift in favor of Warsh in the final hours has formalized his nomination. Now all eyes are on the Senate confirmation process and how Warsh will steer the Fed's monetary policy in balancing inflation, growth, and financial innovation.
Fed Chair Announced Today: Who Will Trump's Choice Be?
US President Donald Trump is preparing to announce the new head of the Federal Reserve (Fed) today. According to sources close to the White House, Trump's preference is largely clear, and markets expect Kevin Warsh to replace current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. While the official announcement is expected later today, the strong predictions favoring Warsh are noteworthy. In a brief statement following his meeting with Kevin Warsh on Thursday, Trump described his chosen candidate for the Fed chairmanship as someone who "would surprise no one." The President concluded his statement by saying, "Someone who could have held this position a few years ago." These words pointed to Warsh, whose name has been circulating in the corridors of power for some time. Indeed, Bloomberg reported that the White House is preparing Warsh for the Fed chairmanship, but the final decision will not be considered final until the official announcement. Reuters also wrote that Trump's meeting with Warsh was quite positive.The new Fed era is being priced into the marketsThe shift in market expectations has also been quickly reflected in prediction platforms. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Kevin Warsh being appointed as Fed chairman quickly rose from around 30% to over 94%. During the same period, the probability of Rick Rieder, previously considered the favorite, sharply declined. A similar trend emerged on the Kalshi platform, where Warsh's probability was priced above 90%. Kevin Warsh served on the Fed Board of Governors from 2006–2011 and was at the center of monetary policy debates during the most turbulent period of the global financial crisis. In recent years, he has been known more for his emphasis on tight monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and the fight against inflation. Analysts believe that if Warsh becomes Fed chairman, he will distance himself from quantitative easing policies and send a more "hawkish" message to the markets. This expectation has already begun to show its effect in financial markets. As the probability of Warsh becoming chairman strengthened, the US dollar gained value, and Treasury bond yields rose. Investors have begun pricing in the expectation that monetary policy may shift to a more cautious and inflation-focused approach. From the perspective of the crypto markets, Warsh's approach holds particular significance. Jerome Powell has, until now, tended to view the role of Bitcoin and other crypto assets within the US financial system as limited. In contrast, Warsh has previously stated that he does not see Bitcoin as a threat to the Fed, but rather as a feedback mechanism that provides market discipline. This approach is interpreted by crypto investors as a more constructive tone. On the other hand, the Fed kept its policy interest rate unchanged at this week's FOMC meeting. Having cut interest rates three times at the end of last year, the bank maintains its cautious stance due to inflation still being above targets. Trump, however, has increased pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates faster and more sharply. This tension is further exacerbated by the fact that Powell's term ends in May. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated and confirmed by the Senate, this appointment could signal a significant shift in the Fed's rhetoric regarding digital assets and risky market instruments. While markets await Trump's announcement, uncertainty about the Fed's future direction is already being priced in globally.
Bitcoin and Altcoins Show Signal of Recovery Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision
Bitcoin traded sideways just below the $89,000 level, while the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market was one of cautious optimism. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, expected around 9 PM Turkish time, investors appeared hesitant to take risks, resulting in price movements remaining within a narrow range. Bitcoin traded around $88,800 in the morning, showing a limited recovery effort after the volatile start to the week. On the Ethereum front, a stronger performance was evident. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose by nearly 2%, approaching the $3,000 level, while most large-scale altcoins also saw slight increases. However, it is argued that these increases do not signal the start of a strong trend, but rather represent short-term stabilization movements in a market currently in a waiting mode. This calm trend in the cryptocurrency market mirrors the global market sentiment. Asian stock markets are testing new highs, while US futures indices are also indicating a positive opening. Optimism, particularly towards technology stocks and AI investments, is keeping risk appetite alive in equity markets. The S&P 500 index closed at a record high, while the financial results to be announced this week by major technology companies are among the main agenda items for the markets.The weak performance of the US dollar is also one of the main factors supporting risky assets. The dollar index fell to its lowest levels since the beginning of 2022 during the week, and investors began pricing in more flexible messages from the Trump administration regarding the "weak dollar." This situation has led to sharp increases in precious metals such as gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies appear to have lagged behind this rally.Leveraged positions are noteworthyAccording to market analysts, Bitcoin's recovery from the $86,000-$87,000 range is related more to the clearing of leveraged positions than to a strong buying wave. The concentration of long liquidations in this region reduced excessive leverage in the market and allowed the short-term price structure to become more balanced. Therefore, the recent rise is considered more of a technical relief than a momentum boost.The Fed's interest rate decision and the messages it will deliver today will be decisive for the crypto market in the short term. The market is generally pricing in a decision to keep interest rates unchanged. However, signals regarding inflation and the future interest rate path may cause a new direction to be determined in risky assets. A more dovish tone could revive interest in crypto assets, while a cautious or tight stance could bring about a new price correction.On the other hand, it is frequently stated that the strong performance of global equity markets in recent months has drawn capital from crypto. Fund flows towards large technology stocks are among the factors limiting the rises in Bitcoin and altcoins. This situation shows that the crypto market is waiting for clarification on the macro front and is struggling to enter an aggressive upward trend without a strong catalyst. Looking at the current situation, Bitcoin appears to be struggling to hold its ground within a narrow range, while the market continues to search for direction. Without clarity on the Fed's decision, the balance sheets of major tech companies, and the trajectory of the dollar, a strong and sustained upward movement in the cryptocurrency market seems unlikely. For now, prices are holding steady, but momentum has not yet been generated.
FED Interest Rate Decision Expected Tomorrow: Markets on Alert
Global markets are focused on this week's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Following three consecutive interest rate cuts in the last three meetings, the direction the US central bank will take in its January meeting is one of the most important factors determining the direction of both traditional markets and crypto assets.The US Federal Reserve's (FED) January 2026 FOMC meeting will be held on January 27-28. The interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, at 9:00 PM Turkish time. Statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the decision will be closely watched by the markets.What is expected from the Fed meeting?Market pricing indicates a very high probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of interest rates remaining at their current level has risen above 97 percent. This rate was around 95 percent last week. This growing expectation indicates that investors do not anticipate a new easing step from the Fed in the short term. As a reminder, the Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range at its December meeting. Thus, the bank has made three consecutive rate cuts in the last three meetings. The main purpose of these steps was to prevent a sharp slowdown in the labor market from turning into a permanent increase in unemployment rates. However, the latest FOMC minutes show that a significant portion of Fed officials believe that caution should be exercised at this point. The minutes show that some members expressed the view that it would be healthier to keep the policy rate stable for a while after three consecutive rate cuts. The fact that inflation is still above the target level and that mixed signals continue in the labor market are among the factors that make the decision-making process difficult. While the latest non-farm payroll data released in the US was below expectations, the limited decline in the unemployment rate reinforced the view that the Fed should not act hastily. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also drew attention to this dilemma in his recent statements. Powell pointed out that both inflation and unemployment risks are simultaneously on the rise, emphasizing that balancing two different risks with a single policy tool is extremely difficult. These statements support expectations that the Fed may adopt a "wait-and-see" strategy in the short term.This uncertainty regarding the interest rate decision is also causing volatility in the cryptocurrency markets. While the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is around $2.99 trillion, leading crypto assets remain under pressure despite a limited recovery across the market. Losses in large-cap coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have been noticeable in recent days.According to market analysts, the sharp rise in gold and silver prices is also contributing to this weak outlook. The shift in safe-haven demand towards precious metals is accelerating the exit from risky assets. Some forecasting platforms have even increased the probability of the Fed maintaining its current interest rate level to 99%. This expectation indicates that volatility may continue in the crypto market in the short term. In summary, while the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting wasn't a major surprise for the markets, the decision text and Fed Chairman Powell's remarks will be crucial in terms of pricing. In the crypto market, the real direction is expected to become clearer with the signals the Fed will give regarding future meetings.
Trump's Statements Reversed the Sharp Wave in Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency markets experienced sharp fluctuations following Donald Trump's messages in Davos. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $88,000 before recovering to the $90,000 level. This movement was driven by Trump softening his tariff threats against Europe over Greenland. This reversal created a sudden relief in crypto markets, which have become extremely sensitive to macroeconomic developments in recent days.The volatile trend once again demonstrated the impact of Trump's Davos engagements at the World Economic Forum on cryptocurrency prices. At the beginning of the week, harsh tariff rhetoric against Europe and rising global bond yields weakened risk appetite, leading to rapid sell-offs in crypto assets. The sharp sell-offs, particularly in long-term Japanese government bonds, tightened global financial conditions and forced investors to exit risky positions. However, the picture changed during Asian trading. Trump's statement that he would refrain from imposing tariffs on European countries that oppose US control over Greenland softened the market tone. Trump described this statement as "a framework for a future agreement." This statement reinforced the perception that a new trade war is not on the horizon in the short term and triggered a recovery in the crypto markets.Donald Trump's softening of tariff rhetoric eased tensions in cryptoBitcoin quickly recovered, approaching $90,000 after falling to around $87,300 overnight. Despite being positioned as an alternative store of value, Bitcoin continues to react with investors' risk-aversion reflexes during periods of uncertainty. A similar picture was seen in the altcoin market. Ethereum tested below $3,000 in the sell-off, then rose above $3,020, limiting its daily losses. Solana recovered to around $130, while XRP approached the $1.95 level again. Cardano rebounded from weekly lows, heading towards $0.37. Dogecoin also recovered some of its losses around $0.127. The overall picture pointed to a temporary search for equilibrium rather than a strong risk-on rally. The striking aspect of the market was the speed of these movements. Trump's harsh rhetoric triggered sell-offs, while equally rapid messages of conciliation reversed the price trend. Such "whipsaw" movements are becoming increasingly common in this market, where algorithmic and leveraged trading, reacting instantly to macroeconomic events, is gaining prominence. Diplomatic contacts also played a role in this process. Trump announced a "very productive" meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and that an agreement had been reached on a framework for the future of Greenland and the Arctic region. Following this announcement, he stated that the planned tariffs on European Union countries would not take effect on February 1st. These messages, of course, also affected traditional markets. US futures indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gaining approximately 1.3 percent during the day. Gold, which approached record levels due to safe-haven demand, gave back some of its gains. In the coming days, investors will closely watch whether the relief stemming from Davos will be permanent. As of writing, the Bitcoin price has fallen to $89,750.
Trump's Davos Messages: Crypto Volatility Increased
US President Donald Trump began his speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp sell-off amid increased uncertainty and volatility. The decline, led by Bitcoin and XRP on January 21st, spread to major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana. With investors focused on global macroeconomic messages, market risk appetite weakened significantly.According to market data, Bitcoin lost over 2.9% overnight, falling to $88,484. XRP fell 2.2%, trading at $1.89. Ethereum experienced an even sharper decline; the second-largest cryptocurrency dropped 6.1% to $2,917. Solana fell 1.6%, trading around $127. This picture indicates that investors preferred to reduce their positions ahead of Trump's speech in Davos. The nervousness in the markets before Trump's speech began was particularly linked to expectations regarding his statements on US trade policies and the global economy. Trump, who had previously delivered harsh messages regarding new tariffs and trade policies targeting Europe, was expected to follow a similar line in Davos. This expectation increased selling pressure on cryptocurrencies, which are considered risky assets.Trump's Davos speech beganWith the start of Trump's speech in Davos, the economic messages gained a clearer framework. The US President emphasized that the country's economy was in a strong recovery process and that inflation was under control. Stating that core inflation was at 1.5 percent, Trump said that the US economy was experiencing one of the fastest recoveries in its history. He also stated that the fourth-quarter growth expectation was 5.4 percent and that the US economy had reached twice the growth rate predicted by the IMF. In his speech, Trump also touched upon the US's global position, arguing that his country was one of the most attractive economic centers in the world. The US President, criticizing Europe, stated that green energy policies and mass immigration have deepened economic and social problems in some European countries. However, he emphasized that European countries, Japan, and South Korea are important partners of the US.Trump also highlighted the US performance in trade and energy. Praising the increase in American exports and the rise in domestic steel production, Trump noted that the monthly trade deficit had been reduced by 77 percent. He stated that US natural gas production had reached an all-time high and also drew attention to oil purchases from Venezuela.These statements indicate that pricing in the cryptocurrency market, as in global markets, will continue to be shaped by macroeconomic expectations. In particular, strong growth and low inflation messages regarding the US economy are seen as critical signals for interest rate policies and the trajectory of the dollar. This suggests that volatility in crypto assets may remain high in the short term.You can continue to follow the latest statements regarding Trump's speech in Davos on the JrKripto Telegram channel.
Trump's Tariff Announcement Hits Crypto: Sharp Drop and Massive Purge in Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell below $90,000 due to a sharp decline in risk appetite in global markets and the impact of Donald Trump's speeches. Consequently, a large liquidation wave occurred in the crypto market targeting leveraged positions. According to market data, a total of $1.09 billion in positions were compulsorily closed in the last 24 hours. Approximately 92% of this amount consisted of long positions opened with the expectation that the market would continue upward. Investors had been using high leverage in recent weeks due to increasing optimism, and these positions were rapidly liquidated due to the market reversal. In total, more than 183,000 investors were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation recorded being a $13.52 million BTCUSDT transaction.The Bitcoin price lost approximately 3% during the day, falling to $87,800 by evening. Although it recovered above $89,000 with the opening of Asian trading, this movement indicated a break from the sideways trend seen last week. On the other hand, the decline was sharper for Ethereum: ETH lost around 6.5% of its value, falling below $3,000. Solana experienced a daily decline exceeding 4%, while its weekly loss exceeded 12%. Cardano saw a drop of approximately 2% in the last 24 hours and nearly 15% in the last seven days. Trump's speeches affected the marketAmong the main factors causing investors to move away from risky assets were US President Donald Trump's threats of new tariffs against European countries and the sharp sell-off in Japanese government bonds. Trump's signal of economic sanctions and tariffs against European countries that opposed his proposals on Greenland brought trade tensions and policy uncertainty concerns back to the forefront in the markets.At the same time, the rise of long-term government bond yields in Japan to record levels created pressure that spilled over into global bond markets. The increase in bond yields led to a tightening of financial conditions, putting pressure particularly on speculative and high-beta assets. Cryptocurrencies, as part of the risky asset basket, also could not escape selling in this environment.Liquidation chains generally indicate that the market is overpositioned in one direction. In such periods, even a small price movement can accelerate the decline by causing successive closings of leveraged trades. Indeed, recent data showed that a significant portion of investors took aggressive positions expecting a rise, and therefore, the selling pressure intensified as the price pulled back.Gold price at new highsThe fact that gold prices headed towards new highs in the same period was another important signal showing that capital is shifting from risky assets to safe havens. In global markets, which have long been supported by the artificial intelligence theme and abundant liquidity, tolerance to political and macroeconomic shocks seems to be decreasing. In the coming days, investors will be watching the trend in global interest rate markets and new messages from political headlines.
Crypto Agenda in Davos: Coinbase CEO to Speak
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he will discuss the market structure legislation being prepared in the US for crypto assets with top executives from the banking sector at the World Economic Forum. These meetings, taking place during the forum in Davos, Switzerland, aim to contribute to resolving ongoing debates, particularly regarding stablecoins.In a video message shared on the X platform, Armstrong emphasized that Coinbase will continue to actively work on the draft legislation. He stated that they will meet with bank CEOs in Davos to address remaining issues, saying, "We will discuss ways to make this regulation a 'win-win' for everyone." According to Armstrong, stablecoins offer a level playing field, creating new opportunities for both crypto companies and traditional banks. Coinbase withdrew US supportCoinbase withdrew its support in the US last week after reviewing the updated text of the bill in the US Senate. In the updated text, the adoption of an approach that prohibits crypto companies from paying interest or returns to users who only hold stablecoin balances became one of the exchange's main points of objection. Armstrong stated that they aim to contribute to the progress of the legislative process by conveying the results of the meetings with bankers in Davos to the Senate and the US administration. This debate surrounding stablecoins is also seen as a reflection of the tension between the crypto sector and traditional banking. The banking sector argues that crypto platforms offering returns on stablecoin balances could lead to deposit flight from savings accounts and pose a risk to financial stability. The Senate's draft text is in line with this view. While the text prohibits passive returns based solely on holding stablecoins, it allows rewards tied to activities such as trading, staking, or providing liquidity. Coinbase's backtracking had a tangible impact on the legislative process. Following the exchange's withdrawal of support, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee postponed its expected review session and did not announce a new date. Despite this, Coinbase argues that it will continue to work with lawmakers to prevent the regulation from being completely shelved, suggesting that revising the text to create a clear and workable framework is possible. The company believes that the law could provide the long-awaited regulatory clarity for digital assets.Armstrong's Davos agenda is not limited to regulatory discussions in the US. The Coinbase CEO stated that during the forum, he will also discuss with world leaders how crypto assets can update traditional financial systems and how tokenization can make access to capital markets more democratic. Tokenization has recently gained attention in both the private and public sectors.On the other hand, contacts in Davos are not limited to the crypto world. Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump is also attending the forum and is expected to hold a series of meetings with global investors. However, it is not clear whether digital assets are on Trump's agenda. The escalating tension between the US and the EU over Greenland is currently one of the main topics of Davos.
Crypto Bulls Expect a Rate Cut While JPMorgan Expects a Rate Hike
US-based investment bank JPMorgan shared a forecast that significantly diverges from the general market regarding expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move. According to the bank, the Fed's next step will be an interest rate increase, not a cut, and this increase is unlikely to occur before the third quarter of 2027. This approach is in clear contrast to the views of analysts, particularly in the crypto markets, who expect an interest rate cut this year.JPMorgan's "reverse" scenarioAccording to the assessment reflected in Reuters, JPMorgan predicts that the Fed will keep the policy interest rate stable in the 3.5–3.75 percent range throughout 2026, followed by a 25 basis point increase in the third quarter of 2027. This forecast of the bank does not align with market pricing for an earlier interest rate cut. In particular, CME Fed funds futures show that investors are positioned with the expectation of two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year. In the prevailing optimistic scenario in the crypto markets, it is thought that falling interest rates will increase risk appetite and accelerate capital flows into digital assets. In this context, Bitcoin stands out as an instrument more sensitive to interest rate expectations compared to traditional assets. Bitcoin, which is directly linked to fiat currency liquidity, is frequently discussed with the view that it can perform more strongly if borrowing costs decline. FXTM senior market analyst Lukman Otunuga is among those who support this expectation. Otunuga states that although 2025 will be challenging, Bitcoin has the potential to recover in 2026, and that lower interest rates and a decrease in the active supply in the market could be supportive of prices. Many optimistic investors in the crypto market also think that a possible change in the Fed chairmanship could open the door to a more dovish monetary policy. Current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end in early May. JPMorgan's expectation of tighter monetary policy also coincides with the technical outlook for US 10-year Treasury yields. Chart patterns suggest that the 10-year Treasury yield could rise towards 6% in the coming period. Currently, this yield is around 4.18%. This picture raises the possibility that financial conditions may remain tighter than expected. However, JPMorgan is not entirely ruling out the possibility of an interest rate cut. Bank analysts acknowledge that the Fed may ease rates later this year if there is a significant weakening in the labor market or a faster-than-expected decline in inflation. However, current data shows that this scenario is not strong in the short term. According to JPMorgan, the labor market is expected to tighten again starting in the second quarter, and the disinflation process is expected to proceed quite gradually. The recently released US employment data also supports this stance. The unemployment rate falling to 4.4% in December has led many major banks to reconsider their interest rate cut schedules. Goldman Sachs and Barclays have shifted their expectations for interest rate cuts, previously pointing to March and June, to September and December. This indicates that uncertainty regarding the interest rate path persists and that macroeconomic dynamics closely monitored by crypto markets remain important.
Fed Chairman Powell Under Scrutiny: Investigation Started
Months before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends, a remarkable legal process has emerged in the US. According to a New York Times report citing sources close to the matter, US federal prosecutors have launched an investigation into Jerome Powell. The investigation is reportedly linked to Powell's previous testimony before Congress regarding the renovation of the Fed buildings in Washington, D.C., reigniting tensions between monetary policy and politics. Powell speaks about the investigationFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell argued that the threat of a criminal investigation against him is politically motivated. Powell stated that the process, conducted by the U.S. Department of Justice, is related to the Fed's refusal to shape its interest rate policy in line with the White House's expectations. These statements come as Powell's term is set to end in May 2026 and tensions with President Donald Trump are steadily increasing. In a video message, Powell announced that the Fed received a grand jury subpoena on Friday. He stated that the subpoena, based on testimony given before the Senate in 2025, contains charges related to a nearly $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed's headquarters in Washington. Powell described this move as "unprecedented," emphasizing that it should be seen as part of a long-standing political pressure campaign rather than an isolated legal process. The Fed chairman stated that Congress was regularly informed about the renovation project and that the entire process was conducted publicly. Despite this, Powell characterized the use of this as grounds for investigation as a "pretext," arguing that the real issue is monetary policy choices. According to Powell, the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting interest rates based on economic data and the public interest. "This is about whether monetary policy will be based on evidence or on political pressure and intimidation," Powell said, adding that the Fed's independence is under attack. The bank's governor stated that he would not back down from his public interest-oriented approach and would continue to focus on price stability and maximum employment goals throughout his term.The Fed had lowered its policy interest rate three times in the second half of 2025, bringing the rate range to 3.50–3.75 percent with the last cut in December. The quantitative tightening program was also ended during the same period. However, Trump frequently criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly and deeply enough, even occasionally raising the possibility of his removal. In an interview with NBC, Trump said he was unaware of the Justice Department's investigation into the Fed and argued that the process was unrelated to interest rate policy.Powell's statements triggered a rapid price movement in the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin rose above $92,000 on Sunday night, while strong buying was seen in major altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana. Privacy-focused tokens were particularly noteworthy; Monero recorded double-digit gains, while Zcash also saw sharp price increases. Who will be the new Fed chairman?Meanwhile, who Trump will appoint to the Fed chairmanship after Powell is also being closely watched. According to information leaked to the press, the list of candidates includes Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder. Trump has openly stated that the new chairman will be someone who "believes in much lower interest rates."
Trump Sends a Clear Message: No Pardon for Former FTX CEO
Despite signing numerous pardons and sentence reductions in 2025 that closely concern the cryptocurrency world, US President Donald Trump has clearly closed the door on former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. In a comprehensive interview with The New York Times, Trump addressed the frequently discussed possibility of a presidential pardon, explicitly stating that there are no plans for a pardon for Bankman-Fried.No pardon for SBFTrump's statement comes after a wave of pardons and sentence reductions covering hundreds of people in the first year of his second presidential term. These decisions included notable figures from the cryptocurrency ecosystem. However, Trump's approach shows that he does not evaluate every crypto case in the same way. Bankman-Fried's case stands out as one of the clearest examples of this distinction. Bankman-Fried, who was found guilty in the case opened after the collapse of the FTX exchange, was sentenced to 25 years in prison for misuse of customer funds and various fraud offenses. FTX, once one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, experienced a historic bankruptcy process with billions of dollars in losses. During the court proceedings, prosecutors revealed that user assets were illegally channeled through Alameda Research, and that this had become a systematic operation. Despite this, Bankman-Fried's family hasn't completely lost hope for a pardon. As Bloomberg reported in January, his family made several attempts to contact the Trump administration. In February 2025, in his first interview from prison, Bankman-Fried described himself as disillusioned with the Biden administration's crypto policies, attempting to frame his case within a broader political context. However, Trump's recent statements suggest these efforts have been unsuccessful. Trump's stance is further highlighted by his other pardons in the crypto space. In 2025, the President pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. This was followed by pardons for BitMEX founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed, as well as former executive Gregory Dwyer. In October, the conviction of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was overturned by a presidential pardon. The pardon, in particular, sparked controversy in Washington. Some Democrats in the Senate demanded an investigation into the background of the decision. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders argued that the possible links between the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial project and Binance should be examined. Looking at this picture, the boundaries drawn by Trump become clearer. The President views the crypto sector as an area that needs strategic and economic support. However, this support does not include executives convicted of crimes such as large-scale fraud and misuse of customer funds. Trump's "closed file" approach to Bankman-Fried reveals that this distinction is a conscious choice. Bankman-Fried, currently in a low-security prison near Los Angeles, continues to serve his sentence. According to the current schedule, he has the possibility of being released as early as 2044, including parole. The appeals process remains uncertain.
Fed's Message: The Era of Fine-Tuning Rates is Coming
Recent statements from the US Federal Reserve indicate that while uncertainties in monetary policy haven't completely disappeared as we head into 2026, risks are beginning to be discussed within a clearer framework. Assessments by Fed members Thomas Barkin and Stephen Miran have brought the delicate balance between expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns about economic growth back to the forefront. Key statements from Fed officialsRichmond Fed President Thomas Barkin emphasized that the US economy performed more resiliently than expected last year. However, according to Barkin, this resilience was limited to specific sectors rather than a widespread strengthening of the economy. The fact that demand and employment growth were confined to a narrow range, coupled with the observed decline in consumer and corporate confidence, signals that the risks facing monetary policy are still present.Barkin stated that the Fed is entering a period where "fine-tuning" is necessary between its dual mandates of price stability and full employment. Barkin noted that although inflation has declined, it is still above the target, and unemployment remains at low levels, but added that further deterioration of the labor market is also undesirable. In this context, he stated that the current policy interest rate is within a "neutral range," neither excessively suppressing the economy nor excessively loose.Regarding expectations for 2026, Barkin adopted a more optimistic tone. He said that the uncertainties felt globally last year are expected to decrease this year, which could boost confidence among consumers and businesses. He shared the view that tax changes, regulatory relaxations, and potential interest rate cuts, when considered together, could accelerate economic activity.On the other hand, Stephen Miran, one of the names mentioned for the Fed chairmanship, gave clearer and more dovish messages regarding monetary policy. Miran said he believes that data will continue to show that interest rate cuts are appropriate. He emphasized that the "unusual" dynamics in housing inflation have led to headline inflation remaining above the target, while core inflation remains quite close to the Fed's targets. According to Miran, current monetary policy is still restrictive and this is putting pressure on economic growth. Arguing that the Fed should cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, Miran warned that if policy remains tight for too long, growth could be hampered in its early stages. He stated that he believes fiscal policy will support growth throughout 2026 and expressed optimism about the overall economic outlook. He also added that he has not had any discussions with Trump regarding the Fed chairmanship and that all candidates on the shortlist are trustworthy individuals.On the market front, expectations are currently more cautious. Current pricing indicates that the Fed will make two interest rate cuts this year. However, it is noted that this outlook may change with the data to be released in the coming days. In particular, the JOLTS data, along with the employment reports to be released later in the week and the inflation data to be released next week, may somewhat reduce the uncertainty regarding the Fed's interest rate path. Therefore, investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic data as well as messages from Fed members.
