Bitcoin opened the new week above $91,300, with global markets focused on the US Federal Reserve. Asian stock markets opened positively, and investors are awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. A 25 basis point rate cut has largely been priced in, but cautious messages from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are expected to dampen risk appetite.
In Asia, technology stocks led a limited rally; the MSCI Asia index rose approximately 0.2 percent. US futures retreated slightly, while the dollar index showed a weaker tone. This trend also shaped the direction of crypto markets.
Bitcoin Faces Resistance as It Approaches $94,000
Bitcoin continued last week's recovery, rising 2 percent in the last 24 hours, but is facing resistance as it approaches the $94,000 region. Analysts indicate that if the current momentum holds, the price could move towards the $98,000-$100,000 range.
Ethereum saw a 3 percent daily increase to $3,135. While the last week's performance exceeded 10 percent, there are comments that Ethereum has strengthened technically after the development team completed the Fusaka update. BNB, Solana, stETH, and XRP also saw slight increases. In contrast, Cardano was the weakest link today, falling 1.4 percent.
Market sentiment remains fragile
Despite the recovery in the crypto market, overall sentiment remains fragile. CryptoQuant's Bull Score index falling to zero indicates that the market is still experiencing the effects of a bear cycle. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that unless new liquidity enters the market, the upward trend may weaken, and the $55,000-$70,000 range is a potential price target for the next year. K33 Research, on the other hand, highlights some factors that could be supportive in the medium term; it is noted that 401(k) regulation changes expected at the beginning of 2026 could generate corporate retirement flows into Bitcoin.
Fed Week: Expectations are strong, tone is cautious
In global markets, the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision remains the main driver. Recent economic data, particularly the consistent monthly increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, has strengthened the likelihood of an interest rate cut. Money markets are pricing in an 88% probability that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points this week. Improved investor confidence data and a decline in inflation expectations also support this expectation.
Still, analysts emphasize that a cautious tone may prevail in the Fed's forward-looking communications, which could increase volatility in risky assets. The mixed start to the week in global stock markets also reflects the impact of these expectations. Bitcoin's price behavior in recent months is reminiscent of the corrections seen in past cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich notes that the market has already experienced a sharp pullback spanning two months, and volatility may increase again as clarity on monetary policy is provided.
