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Vanguard Opens Doors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP Funds
The long-awaited institutional transformation of the crypto markets has finally arrived. According to reports, Vanguard, one of the largest players in traditional finance, is abandoning its long-standing anti-crypto stance and allowing trading of funds based on digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP on its platform.Vanguard Makes a Crypto MoveVanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager, is making a major shift in its long-standing anti-crypto stance. According to Bloomberg, the company will now allow trading of ETFs and mutual funds "primarily holding cryptocurrencies" on its platform. This decision comes as a result of a significant increase in demand from both individual and institutional investors.Vanguard's move is noteworthy at a time when the boundaries between traditional finance and crypto markets are rapidly blurring. The company made headlines just last year when CEO Salim Ramji stated, "We are not considering launching crypto ETFs." Even as spot Bitcoin ETFs received approval in the US, Vanguard maintained its cautious approach to crypto, refusing to include these products on its platform. However, the landscape has changed. Starting Tuesday, ETFs and mutual funds based on crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP will be available for purchase and sale directly on the Vanguard platform. This move also officially opens the doors to a massive market. Vanguard is a giant that manages over 50 million brokerage accounts and oversees $11 trillion in assets.Andrew Kadjeski, who heads Vanguard's Brokerage and Investments division, commented on this new crypto-focused platform: “Crypto ETFs and mutual funds have been tested during volatile periods and have performed as expected, maintaining liquidity. The operational infrastructure needed to support these products has matured, and investor preferences are evolving.”Analysts say this transformation is inevitable. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and spot Ethereum ETFs in June 2024, the US has witnessed a significant influx of capital into crypto-based exchange-traded products. Even ETFs tracking altcoins like XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Litecoin have emerged. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that more than 100 new crypto ETFs could launch within the next six months.Competitors are following a similar path. Vanguard's largest rival, BlackRock, still holds approximately $70 billion in its IBIT Bitcoin ETF. As crypto funds become one of the fastest-growing categories in the US investment world, it seemed increasingly difficult for Vanguard to stay out of the race.While the new approach has gained widespread support in the crypto space, Vanguard still has no plans to create its own crypto products. Furthermore, funds classified by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as "meme coin-linked" will be excluded from the platform. In other words, the company is implementing a controlled expansion; it's not offering full integration, but rather access within a regulatory framework.
$1 Billion Inflow into Crypto Funds: Market Breaks Four-Week Pressure
CoinShares' latest weekly flow report showed a significant recovery in institutional demand for cryptoasset funds. According to the report, digital asset investment products saw a total inflow of $1.07 billion last week. This increase indicates a rapid turnaround in investor sentiment following sharp outflows of $5.7 billion in the last four weeks. Expectations for a rate cut, reinforced by statements from FOMC member John Williams emphasizing that monetary policy remains "restrictive," played a critical role in this market recovery.CoinShares data: How much were Bitcoin and altcoin inflows?Volumes remained low due to Thanksgiving. Cryptoasset ETP trading volume hit a record $56 billion the previous week and remained at $24 billion this week. Despite this, the recovery in inflows suggests investors haven't lost their risk appetite as the year-end approaches.The strongest inflow came from the US, which attracted $994 million last week alone. Canada also attracted attention with $97.6 million, while Switzerland closed the week positive with $23.6 million in inflows. There were also countries that moved in the opposite direction; Germany, in particular, distinguished itself with $55.5 million in outflows.Asset-wise, the picture was once again dominated by Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin received $461 million in inflows last week. This trend, when considered alongside the $1.9 million outflow from short Bitcoin products, suggests that investors have reversed their bearish expectations. Ethereum, on the other hand, saw a net inflow of $308 million. The market's two largest assets served as a reminder that institutional demand remained robust in the final quarter of the year. XRP was the star of the week. The asset broke its all-time high with a total inflow of $289 million. Demand for XRP products in the last six weeks equates to 29 percent of the asset's total assets under management. A significant portion of this sharp increase is believed to be attributed to the launch of new XRP ETF products in the US.Cardano, on the other hand, painted a completely different picture. ADA investment products experienced $19.3 million in outflows. This decrease represents approximately 23% of the entity's total assets under management. While small inflows were seen in multi-asset products, Solana also saw a limited but positive trend; SOL funds closed the week with $4.4 million in inflows.The report emphasizes that this sudden recovery after four weeks of weakness signals a renewed risk-taking trend on the institutional side. Strengthening expectations for a rate cut further accentuate the movement in US markets. Large funds appear to have developed a new avenue for expansion in their strategies, particularly as year-end position adjustments approach.It remains to be seen how the FOMC decisions and year-end balance sheet movements to be announced in the coming weeks will shape the flow of money into digital asset funds.
Bitcoin Drops Below $87,500: What Causes the Drop?
Bitcoin began the new week with a sharp decline. The price's drop below $87,500 isn't a move that can be explained by a single factor; multiple pressures, ranging from macro shocks and seasonal sell-offs to technical weakness and a liquidity squeeze stemming from Japan, have simultaneously come into play. Developments in Japan Impacted the Crypto MarketJapan's 2-year government bond yield rose to 1.01 percent in the morning, reaching a level not seen since 2008. This movement reinforced market expectations that the Bank of Japan was nearing abandonment of its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's statement, "We will assess the appropriateness of an interest rate hike at this month's meeting," abruptly dampened risk appetite.The sharp shift in interest rate expectations accelerated the unraveling of yen carry trades, in particular. The crypto market reacted most quickly when this fund flow, which had supported risk assets throughout the year, reversed. With the yen's recovery in the morning, liquidity rapidly contracted; Bitcoin lost the $90,000 threshold, falling below $87,500. Ethereum followed suit, falling towards the $2,850 level.Market participants, based on Polymarket pricing, see a 50% chance of Japan hiking interest rates in December. This uncertainty is creating a backdrop that could increase volatility across Asia. Meanwhile, expectations for China's upcoming manufacturing data and the Fed's December meeting are among other factors weighing on risk appetite.However, it would be insufficient to explain the decline solely on macro developments. Bitcoin entered its historically weak December with a similar pattern. Year-end tax sales in the US and Europe are putting additional pressure on the market, particularly as funds seeking to write off losses are reducing their BTC positions. According to Coinglass data, November closed with a decline of more than 17%, increasing the likelihood of continued weakness in December, given past cycles. In examples like 2018, 2019, and 2022, a red November was followed by a red December.Leverage has decreasedThere's also an important signal on the liquidation front. The lowest leverage level in recent weeks is being observed; this reduces the "fuel" needed for a strong upward move and allows selling to more easily exert price pressure. The liquidation of over $150 million of long positions on the BTC side alone this morning indicated that the decline was deepening without difficulty.In summary, Bitcoin's sharp decline to the $86,000–$87,000 range was caused by the confluence of both macro shocks originating in Asia and year-end selling pressure. Technical indicators suggest the trend has not yet strengthened; therefore, investors will be watching for both signals from the BOJ and a new catalyst that will allow risk appetite to recover. December is often volatile in the crypto market, and this year looks no different.
A Critical Day for $16 Billion in BTC and ETH Options
It's one of the busiest days of the year in the crypto derivatives market. According to Deribit data, over $16 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are reaching maturity on October 31, 2025. Both BTC and ETH are experiencing a massive position closure, paving the way for sharp intraday price fluctuations.$100,000 Critical for Bitcoin OptionsMore than 145,000 contracts are expiring on the Bitcoin side with a notional value of approximately $13 billion. The market is trading around $91,000, but the maximum pain level is $100,000. In the options market, the maximum pain level refers to the price range where the greatest investor losses occur at expiration, and prices are frequently observed retreating towards this level. Therefore, upward pressure is likely to be felt as the price approaches expiration. According to Deribit's analyst team, the sharp pullback in recent weeks has significantly reshaped BTC options positions. As Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to the $80,000 range, many investors holding long puts took profits. Despite this, a significant portion of investors remain cautious; put positions held in the $80,000-$85,000 range remain on the table.Another factor closely watched by the market is the large-sized call condor strategy launched for the "year-end bull run." Analysts note that this structure, approximately $6.5 million targeting the $100,000-$106,000-$112,000 range, was the most dominant trade throughout the week. This structure points to the expectation of a strong upward movement in Bitcoin at the end of the year.On the other hand, the persistent use of call overwriting strategies (i.e., investors selling calls at high strike prices against their holdings of BTC) is somewhat dampening the upside potential. This situation has led to a slight softening of implied volatility (IV) and suggests that the market has not yet committed to a one-way trend. On the Ethereum side, 574,000 contracts with a nominal value of approximately $1.7 billion are closing today. ETH is trading around $3,000, with maximum pain at $3,400. The put-call ratio, at 0.48, suggests a call bias, similar to Bitcoin. However, ETH's positioning isn't as aggressive as BTC's; it's more balanced and less bearish.Market volatility is higher for both assets compared to the previous month. Bitcoin's IV average for major futures is around 45%, while Ethereum's is just below 70%. The main factors fueling this volatility are increasing macro uncertainty in the last quarter, the three-month price pressure, and the divergence among investors regarding direction. Analysts reiterate the need for caution in leveraged trading.Today's major expiration close could lead to increased volatility. A price move toward Bitcoin's maximum pain level, or conversely, a sharp increase in volatility, could rapidly alter liquidity conditions for both BTC and ETH for the remainder of the day. In short, the market is experiencing a two-way tension, caught between strong year-end expectations and short-term caution.
Bitcoin Surpasses $91,000: Fed Cut Expectations on the Agenda
Bitcoin has reversed course after a sharp pullback last week. With buying during the Asian session on Wednesday and Thursday morning, the BTC price managed to hold above the $91,000 level. The 24-hour gain reached 4.5%. Market analysts believe this move is fueled by both a technical reactionary surge and a surge in risk appetite fueled by strengthening macroeconomic expectations. Market data shows that Bitcoin, which fell to $81,000 last week and shook off the market-shattering decline, first recovered to $89,000 and then climbed to $91,700. Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu described this reversal as a "classic oversold reaction," stating that liquidity has improved and risk appetite has revived.On the macro front, all eyes are on December. CME's FedWatch data shows that the probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December meeting has increased to 84.7%. This rate was around 70% last week. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, the market has begun to price in a strong discount. This expectation is creating a liquidity environment that supports both the equity and crypto markets.HashKey Group Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that Bitcoin's rise is "a natural recovery after a sharp decline," rather than a single catalyst. According to Ding, the market structure remains healthy, and long-term fundamentals remain strong.Altcoins are also recoveringNot only BTC but also major altcoins have accompanied the recovery. Ethereum rose 3% to $3,030, while XRP rose 1%. BNB rose 3.9% to near $890, and Solana rose 2.9% to $143. However, weakness persists in some altcoins. For example, Cardano (ADA) has lost 7% of its value in the last seven days, lagging behind the mainstream basket. Meanwhile, perhaps the most striking factor in the market in recent days has been the strong inflows into XRP ETFs. Grayscale's GXRP product attracted $67.4 million, and Franklin Templeton's XRPZ ETF attracted $62.6 million. Total XRP ETF assets exceeded $628 million, with nearly 80 million XRP absorbed in the first 24 hours. This interest even surpassed the first-day performance of the Solana ETF, which launched at the beginning of the year.Statements from some institutional desks, however, maintain the short-term uncertainty. Anthony Pompliano stated that as the year-end approaches, some institutional investors are reducing their Bitcoin positions due to risk management related to the bonus period. CryptoQuant, on the other hand, notes that BTC's risk-return ratio has reached its most attractive level since mid-2023, a signal that historically points to a new period of accumulation.The rise in the long-short ratio of large accounts on Binance to 3.8 suggests that leveraged investors are betting on a return. However, Citi analysts predict that Bitcoin will consolidate in the $82,000–$90,000 range until the first half of 2026.
Texas Takes First Step Towards Bitcoin Reserve: Purchase of $5 Million ETF
Texas has taken a significant step toward becoming the first state in the US to begin accumulating Bitcoin directly with government funds. State officials confirmed a $5 million purchase from IBIT, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. While this move doesn't yet directly translate to BTC accumulation, it is considered a transitional phase for the upcoming "Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve."Texas allocated $10 million to establish this reserve at the beginning of the year and began collecting comprehensive information from the industry in September. The state's information request process was completed in recent weeks. Crypto companies submitted proposals guiding Texas on a range of issues, from custodial services to security standards. These proposals will be used to establish the state's long-term Bitcoin accumulation model.Last week's $5 million ETF purchase is also part of this preparation. A spokesperson for the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts said the ETF is only a "temporary placeholder" and that actual Bitcoin purchases will begin once a formal custodial agreement is signed. The state's next step is to move to the formal proposal process for selecting a custodian. This move opens the door to a new era in the race to establish Bitcoin reserves with public resources in the US. Previously, some states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, invested in Bitcoin ETFs through their state pension funds. However, these were investments made for individual retirement funds; accumulating BTC in the state treasury is a different matter.New Hampshire and Arizona Are NextFollowing Texas, New Hampshire and Arizona are also running their own reserve projects. New Hampshire was the first state in the country to enact a Bitcoin reserve law, but no actual purchase has yet been made. Last week, however, the approval of $100 million in Bitcoin bonds was notable. Arizona has taken legal steps to direct the accumulated unowned crypto assets into a reserve fund.One of the most active figures behind the reserve projects is Dennis Porter, CEO of the Satoshi Action Fund. Porter stated that they have submitted draft laws to states and prefer a gradual progress. He believes the recent decline in the crypto market will not disrupt these initiatives because the downturn is not sufficient to attract the attention of lawmakers. Texas Blockchain Council President Lee Bratcher described the state's latest move as "buying the bottom." He described Texas's purchase of a Bitcoin ETF at $87,000 as "successful timing." 5-day Bitcoin graph Once the process is complete in Texas, it will be the first time in US history that a state treasury has directly begun holding Bitcoin. This step is expected to serve as an example for other states. Crypto reserve initiatives are expected to accelerate nationwide in the early months of 2025, when the new legislative session begins.
Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin-Collateralized Loan by $130 Million
Tokyo-based digital asset company Metaplanet continues its Bitcoin accumulation strategy without slowing down. The company announced that it has drawn down an additional $130 million from its existing $500 million Bitcoin-secured credit line. This new loan will be used for both additional BTC purchases and the expansion of its revenue-generating activities. Management also states that stock repurchases may be made under favorable market conditions.Metaplanet's announcement covers the loan transaction approved on November 21st. As with the previous $100 million loan, the company withheld counterparty information at the lender's request. The loan reportedly has a variable interest rate denominated in US dollars and automatically renews daily. The company can repay at any time.At the heart of this financing structure is Metaplanet's massive Bitcoin reserves held on its balance sheet. The company holds 30,823 BTC. Valued at approximately $2.7 billion at current prices, this reserve serves both as collateral for the loan and as an additional safety margin during periods of volatility. Metaplanet emphasizes that its financial policy is designed to maintain sufficient margin even during collateral price fluctuations. With the new loan, the total amount disbursed has increased to $230 million.The company announced that the latest financing tranche will be used for three primary purposes: purchasing more BTC, expanding its Bitcoin revenue-generating business, and repurchasing company shares if market conditions permit. On the revenue generation side, the company's plans to generate premium income by selling Bitcoin options are particularly prominent. The BTC used in this strategy will serve as collateral for the relevant option positions.Metaplanet does not expect the loan to have a significant impact on the fiscal year ending in December 2025. However, it was stated that if market conditions change significantly, notification will be made promptly.Share price under pressure, BTC holdings at a lossMetaplanet holds the fourth-largest Bitcoin holding among publicly traded companies. MicroStrategy tops the list, followed by miner Marathon Digital (MARA) and Tether-backed Twenty One. Despite these large BTC holdings, Metaplanet's shares, like many others in the sector, have suffered significant losses in recent months. The company's share price has fallen approximately 81 percent since its summer peak. Its market capitalization-net asset value (mNAV) ratio has also fallen to 0.81.Metaplanet's Bitcoin holdings are currently showing losses on its balance sheet. Its BTC position, with an average cost of $3.3 billion, carries an unrealized loss of approximately $600 million at current prices. Despite this, the company reiterates that it has not abandoned its long-term strategy and continues its Bitcoin-focused growth plan.
$1.9 Billion Outflow in Crypto Funds: BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI in the Red!
Crypto asset investment products experienced a significant wave of outflows last week. According to CoinShares' latest report, a total of $1.94 billion in outflows from crypto funds occurred. This brings the total outflow over the last four weeks to $4.92 billion. This period marked the third-strongest series of outflows since 2018.The weakening of investors' risk appetite continues to pressure both prices and fund flows. Nevertheless, the $258 million inflow on the last trading day of the week signaled a limited, albeit drastic, recovery in market sentiment.Bitcoin funds recover after a large outflowBitcoin products were hit the hardest. $1.27 billion in outflows from BTC funds during the week. This level of outflow suggests that investors remain cautious in the short term. However, the picture changed somewhat on Friday, with $225 million inflows into Bitcoin funds. This movement suggests that, despite the weak weekly outlook, investors are looking to buy at the dips. Interest in short Bitcoin products continues to strengthen. Funds holding short positions saw $19 million in inflows during the week. The total inflow over the last three weeks reached $40 million, representing 23% of the product's assets under management. The increase in AUM for short products is striking; it grew by 119% in just three weeks.Ethereum investment products were also affected by the downturn. $589 million in outflows from ETH funds occurred during the week. This figure represents 7.3% of the funds' total assets. However, similar to Bitcoin, $57.5 million in inflows were seen on Friday, with a limited recovery.Solana weakened in altcoins, while XRP roseThe picture on the altcoin side is mixed.• Solana closed the week negatively with $156 million in outflows.• XRP, however, bucked the general trend and attracted attention with $89.3 million in inflows.XRP emerged as the strongest performing asset of the week. Strong interest in fund flows could also have a supportive effect on the price. The sharpest outflow came from the US.The largest outflow in the regional breakdown came by far from US funds.• US: $1.68 billion outflow• Germany: $118 million outflow• Canada: $27 million outflow• Brazil: $20.9 million inflow• Switzerland and Sweden: total outflows exceeding $130 millionFund flows originating in the US continue to shape the general direction of global flows. This region, where institutional investor behavior is particularly concentrated, was a key factor in the week's downturn.Although there have been heavy outflows in the last four weeks, total inflows since the beginning of the year still stand at $44.4 billion. This suggests that institutional interest remains strong in the bigger picture.Friday's inflows indicate that some investors are beginning to see the decline as an opportunity. If the market strengthens this signal in the coming weeks, fund flows may stabilize.
Calls to Boycott JP Morgan Grow from the Crypto Community
The crypto community has been reacting strongly to JP Morgan for the past 48 hours. Suspicions that the bank is behind the sudden crash in MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares and the sharp decline in Bitcoin are rapidly growing. Calls for a boycott are growing stronger on social media, while investors are discussing both JP Morgan's actions and a possible MSCI index change.Panic began when MicroStrategy and Bitcoin prices plummeted without warning. Markets were stunned until Crypto Banter host Ran Neuner made a claim. Neuner suggested that the possibility of MicroStrategy being delisted from MSCI or NASDAQ might have triggered the price action. This claim immediately changed the topic of discussion.Subsequent news released by MSCI further escalated tensions. It was suggested that the index provider could remove companies holding a large portion of their balance sheets in crypto assets from global indices starting in 2026. This possibility created widespread panic in the markets, and the selling pressure on MicroStrategy intensified. JPMorgan is a targetFrom this point on, tensions shifted to JP Morgan. Trading firm Empery Digital accused the bank of "creating artificial pressure" on MicroStrategy. The firm alleged that JP Morgan's sudden, extremely negative outlook was not normal market commentary; it suggested an orchestrated move.Empery also stated that the bank quietly raised the margin and collateral requirements for MSTR on July 7. This move allegedly created further volatility, forced selling, and deep price declines. Most investors were unaware of this increase, and the sudden liquidations created a knock-on effect.MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor reacted strongly. Saylor emphasized that the company was not merely a "Bitcoin carrier" but a software company generating $500 million in annual revenue. He also emphasized that they had $7.7 billion in Bitcoin-backed financial products.Calls for a boycott spread rapidly.Outrage quickly spread across social media. Influencer Adam B. Liv called for a full-scale boycott of JP Morgan. Liv also brought up some questionable past trading records and Epstein connections. The debate quickly escalated.Another surprising statement came from real estate investor Grant Cardone. Cardone announced that he had withdrawn $20 million from Chase and said he was preparing for legal action. Max Keiser also joined the discussion, saying, "Break up JP Morgan, buy MicroStrategy and Bitcoin."If MSCI's plan goes through, companies with more than 50% of their balance sheets tied to crypto assets could be excluded from the index. This could cut off billions of dollars in passive fund flows. It's rumored that companies will be forced to restructure their balance sheets to mitigate this risk.Another development that escalated the debate was the statements of Strike CEO Jack Mallers. Mallers stated that JP Morgan closed its accounts without providing a reason and downgraded it to "concerning activity." This situation has revived the long-discussed "Operation Chokepoint 2.0" allegations in the US. The Trump administration signed an executive order banning such practices this summer. However, Mallers's experience has sparked speculation that the banking pressure on crypto companies continues.Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, however, supported Mallers, saying, "Bitcoin will survive in the long run, while the institutions that exert pressure will become history."
Fed Official's "Near-Term" Message Sparks Market: Bitcoin Below $84,000
Remarks by New York Fed President John Williams, a senior official at the US Federal Reserve, abruptly changed the market sentiment on Friday. While Williams acknowledged that inflationary progress has "temporarily stalled," he hinted that the Fed may cut interest rates in the near future. While this shift in tone has somewhat restored investors' risk appetite, the selling pressure on Bitcoin has not completely subsided.The cryptocurrency fluctuated sharply between $83,000 and $84,000 during the day, with a 24-hour decline of 8.9%. While the BTC/USD pair showed brief recoveries, the chart reveals that the overall downward trend remains evident. Williams' speech consisted of remarks prepared for an event at the Central Bank of Chile. The renowned economist stated that they estimate the current inflation rate to be approximately 2.75% and emphasized the need to return to the Fed's long-term target of 2% in a "sustainable" manner. However, his statement that the tariffs had a temporary impact on prices and were not expected to translate into permanent inflation drew attention in the market."I believe monetary policy is still relatively restrictive. Therefore, there is still room for some adjustments to the target interest rate range in the near term," Williams said, directly impacting expectations for the Fed's December meeting.Interest Rate Change Expectations for DecemberActivity in derivatives markets increased following these announcements. Traders' positions expecting a December rate cut rose rapidly, pushing the probability above 70%. However, disagreements within the Fed remain evident. According to recent statements, some policymakers are not open to a rate cut until there is clearer evidence that inflation will fall to the 2% target.Williams, however, takes a more "soft" line amid this debate. He states that the labor market is no longer as tight as it was during the pandemic, and that the rise of the unemployment rate to 4.4% is not a major alarm bell for the economy. He emphasizes the importance of achieving the Fed's primary goal of price stability while simultaneously avoiding unnecessary risks to its maximum employment target.On the cryptocurrency side, pricing is quite fragile. Volatility in the dollar index and the search for direction in US bond yields continue to put pressure on Bitcoin. The sharp sell-off seen on the chart deepened, particularly during the Asian session. The pullback to $81,000 during the day increased volumes in the spot market and triggered liquidations in leveraged positions.Nevertheless, some analysts say that the possibility of a "near-term" Fed rate cut could be supportive for Bitcoin in the medium term. However, the market is currently trading under the shadow of macro uncertainty and short-term selling pressure.Under current conditions, the $82,000-$81,000 range represents short-term support for BTC, while the $85,000-$87,000 range represents the first strong resistance zone. Volatility is expected to increase further as the Fed approaches its December meeting.
Cryptocurrencies Shakes: BTC Hits Seven-Month Low, ETFs See Major Exodus
Bitcoin fell below $84,000 on Friday morning, retreating to its lowest level in seven months. Delayed US employment data showed that inflationary pressures were still strong, weakening expectations for a December interest rate cut. The market was already operating on fragile ground; this data accelerated the sell-off and reinforced the "extreme fear" sentiment in the crypto market.The BTC price fell over 7% in 24 hours, falling to $83,930. These levels represent a nearly 32% correction from the October peak of $126,080. The Crypto Fear and Greed index, hovering around 11 points, suggests a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment. The broader market also reflects the same picture; the total crypto market fell more than 6% in the last 24 hours. Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, says the selling pressure is fueled not only by macro uncertainty but also by a lack of liquidity. According to Liu, the strong employment data disrupted the pricing of the expected December interest rate cut; short-term profit-taking accelerated the decline. The analyst emphasized that the Fed's suspension of tightening measures alone will not be sufficient for a sustainable recovery, emphasizing the need for capital inflows, on-chain demand, and a recovery in risk appetite.The US nonfarm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000. Market expectations were only 50,000. The strong data contradicted previous signals of weakening employment and pointed to persistent inflationary pressure. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December hovers around 35%. This rate suggests that market confidence in a rate cut remains weak.Bitcoin ETFs "Near Record" OutflowAnother factor in the market's pressure was the sharp outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. A total of $903 million was withdrawn from eight US ETFs, marking the largest daily net outflow since the tariff-fueled sell-off in February. BlackRock's IBIT product saw $355 million, Grayscale's GBTC fund $199 million, and Fidelity's FBTC fund $190 million. Many analysts agree that this reflects the increasing risk aversion not only in Bitcoin but also in US equities.BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas notes that this week's move signals a "clear reversal of sentiment," with risks to Nvidia's balance sheet also weighing on tech stocks. The decline in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has further highlighted the general liquidity crunch reflected in cryptocurrencies.Still, the outlook isn't entirely bleak. According to Lucas, total cumulative inflows into ETFs currently stand at $57 billion, and total assets under management by funds are $113 billion, representing a significant portion of Bitcoin's market capitalization. Therefore, it's premature to say institutional investors have completely abandoned the market. Ethereum, on the other hand, saw daily outflows of $261 million, while inflows into newly launched altcoin ETFs continued.
US Report Surprises: How Strong Employment Impacted Cryptos
The delayed employment data released following the historically long government shutdown in the US has created a cautious price in crypto markets. The nonfarm payrolls report, normally released on the first Friday of each month, was released today due to the 43-day-plus shutdown. While the September figures reveal that the economy created jobs above expectations, the rise in the unemployment rate cast a more mixed tone on the data. This picture has reopened discussion about the possibility of a rate cut for the Fed's December meeting.119,000 new jobs announcedAccording to data released by the US Department of Labor, the economy created 119,000 new jobs in September. Market expectations were 53,000. Furthermore, the previous figure of 22,000 was revised downward, not upward, suggesting that summer employment growth was weaker than anticipated. The significant downward revisions to the July and August data suggest that employment momentum has slowed since the summer.However, the picture is not entirely positive. The unemployment rate, at 4.4%, exceeded expectations. Economists expected the data to remain at 4.3%. Despite strong employment growth, this rise in unemployment indicated a more complex labor market outlook than anticipated. Furthermore, due to the government shutdown, October employment data will not be released at all. This further narrows the data set available for investors to analyze as the Fed approaches its final meeting of the year.The market's initial pricing reflects this uncertainty. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a December interest rate cut has fallen to 31.8% from 100% a month ago. The probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady is priced in at 68.2%. Under normal circumstances, strong employment data would have lifted the dollar index; however, the DXY only saw limited movement, settling at 100.15. This suggests that markets are hesitant to take overly aggressive positions as they attempt to understand the Fed's response.A similar cautious approach prevails in the crypto market. Immediately after the data release, Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a narrow range of around $500, trading at $92,230. Ethereum (ETH) settled around $3,034. Normally, strong employment data can trigger sharper sell-offs in risk assets; however, the limited initial response suggests that crypto investors are trying to absorb macro uncertainties. According to some analysts, the continued resilience of employment could prompt the Fed to act more cautiously at its final meeting of the year. This is a key factor in determining Bitcoin's short-term direction. Meanwhile, the price of gold rose slightly intraday to around $4,080 in the commodity market, which is the source of the data; however, the real volatility will be seen in the crypto market.Investors are now focused on next week's PMI and inflation indicators. These data will provide clues about the Fed's policy stance heading into 2025. Cautious pricing in the crypto market is expected to continue for a short time.
Bitcoin Under Hard Pressure: Fed Minutes Deepen Decline
Bitcoin is under sharp pressure again, and the market landscape appears more complex than in previous corrections. The price fell to $88,600 on Wednesday, a level not seen since April. Compared to the start of the year, BTC is still down approximately 5 percent. The decline coincided with the release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes, the FOMC meeting, and further shaken market sentiment.The minutes reveal that the disagreements among Fed members have reached their most pronounced level this year. One group argues that the economy is softening, signs of a cooling in the labor market are becoming evident, and that more cautious policy is needed. Another, stating that inflation still hasn't sustained its 2% target, believes interest rates should remain steady. The fact that one member calls for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while another advocates "no cuts at all," highlights the broad division within the board.This situation was immediately reflected in the market. The probability of a 25 basis point cut on Polymarket in December was 52% before the minutes, but dropped to 30% after the announcement. The market currently assigns an approximately 70% probability to interest rates remaining stable. CME FedWatch data confirms this division.As macro uncertainty rises again, the already fragile Bitcoin structure has been further disrupted. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde states that a "dangerous leverage" structure has emerged in the derivatives market. The increase in open interest in futures positions, exceeding 36,000 BTC in the past week, is the largest increase since April 2023. The positive funding rate suggests that most investors are still attempting to buy reactively, in other words, the typical "catch the knife when it falls" behavior is evident in the market. Lunde notes that this structure has generally resulted in deeper declines in previous periods.According to the analyst, a strong bottom could form between $84,000 and $86,000; However, if the sell-off accelerates, a retest of the $74,500 low from April is also possible. The situation is no different for Ethereum; ETH has fallen to around $2,870, falling below $3,000 for the first time since July. XRP, on the other hand, is trading at a significant threshold, approaching $2 again after five months.QCP Capital's assessments also explain the extent of the decline. The company states that the sell-off is not due to a single reason, but rather to weakening liquidity conditions, continued ETF outflows, and a sharp reversal in macroeconomic expectations. In particular, the decline in the probability of an interest rate cut, which was considered a certainty in December, to 50% within the week quickly dampened risk appetite. The liquidation of a $559 million leveraged position in the last 24 hours also demonstrates this effect.QCP emphasizes that while stocks are supported by strong balance sheets and artificial intelligence-focused institutional investments, Bitcoin does not enjoy the same protection. Due to BTC's reliance on liquidity, the impact of ETF outflows is magnified. The institution also notes that labor force data and the LEI indicator, due this week, could inform Fed policy, and therefore volatility is expected to remain high for some time.Bitcoin Price UpdateFollowing this decline, Bitcoin price has returned above $90,000. At the time of writing, it is trading at $91,900, a 0.7 percent increase.
Historic Step from a US State: Bitcoin-Collateralized Municipal Bond
New Hampshire has approved the first Bitcoin-backed municipal bond in the US, marking a new chapter in the integration of crypto assets with traditional finance. The state's business support agency, the New Hampshire Business Finance Authority (BFA), greenlit a $100 million Bitcoin-backed conduit bond on November 17. This move is seen as a milestone that could enable the entry of digital assets into the $140 trillion global debt market.The approved structure allows companies to use overcollateralized Bitcoin held in private custody as debt instruments. Bitcoin assets will be held by BitGo, and investor protection will be provided entirely through this collateral. BFA acts solely as an intermediary, managing and approving the process; no government or taxpayers bear any risk.Wave Digital Assets and Rosemawr Management, a municipal bond specialist, are behind this financial innovation. The product is designed to align with the traditional framework governing municipal and corporate bonds. Wave co-founder Les Borsai states that their goal is to "combine traditional fixed-income markets and digital assets in a fully institutional and scalable model."The state government considers this step a strategic initiative. New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte described this Bitcoin-backed bond as a "historic innovation" and highlighted the state's pioneering role in embracing technology. According to Ayotte, this model will open new investment channels without risking the state budget.How does Bitcoin collateral work?The mechanism of Bitcoin collateral is also noteworthy. According to the structure, borrowers must deposit approximately 160% of the bond value in Bitcoin as collateral. If Bitcoin's value falls below 130%, an automatic liquidation mechanism is activated, guaranteeing full repayment of bond investors. This model allows borrowing institutions to access capital without selling Bitcoin or incurring tax liabilities. BFA Director James Key-Wallace announced that the fees and potential collateral gains from these transactions will support entrepreneurship and job growth in the state through a new fund called the "Bitcoin Economic Development Fund." This aims to create a circular financial ecosystem that will create value for both the public and private sectors.This initiative follows the first US state legislature allowing the state treasury to invest in Bitcoin. Earlier this year, New Hampshire legalized the investment of up to 5% of public funds in digital assets, becoming the country's first "strategic Bitcoin reserve."According to experts, if this model proves successful, other states are likely to pursue similar Bitcoin-backed debt instruments. This move could set a precedent for the integration of crypto assets into mainstream financial infrastructure, particularly considering the $58.2 trillion US bond market.
Bitcoin Comment from Standard Chartered: "Sell-off is Over”
While Bitcoin's plunge below $90,000 on November 18th created significant anxiety in the crypto market, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, says this pullback is a cyclical correction and that selling pressure may have largely ended. Bitcoin tested a seven-month low during the days when investors panicked; however, according to Kendrick, the pattern is quite similar to past corrections, suggesting that the bottom may have already been seen.Kendrick describes the recent decline as "a version of a rapid and painful post-ETF correction." Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in 2024, Bitcoin has experienced three major pullbacks, each resulting in a strong recovery. Standard Chartered believes this third major correction follows the same pattern. As short-term investors accelerated selling, ETF inflows slowed, and the market's liquidity weakened, some indicators dipped into oversold territory. One of these is the decline of MicroStrategy's mNAV ratio back to 1.0. This metric means the company's market capitalization is parity with Bitcoin holdings, and according to Kendrick, such readings near zero generally signal bottoming. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index's decline to 15 is another indicator of extreme panic in the market.Market signals are improvingAnalysts note that despite the deepening pullback, long-term signals are improving. Most ETF investors are nearing breakeven, and on-chain accumulation behavior suggests that high-conviction buyers have begun buying. The quiet accumulation of large investors during days of accelerated retail investor selling is considered by many experts to be the final stage of the correction.While market volatility continues, Standard Chartered believes there has been no dramatic deterioration in the broader macro picture. Kendrick notes that liquidity conditions and inflation data, in particular, support risk appetite, and that ETF inflows are likely to regain momentum in December. The analyst, who previously announced his year-end target of $200,000, emphasized that "the rally remains the baseline scenario," although he didn't reaffirm it today.Meanwhile, some analysts point out that the market remains fragile. Nansen's Nicolai Sondergaard says that market depth has decreased by approximately 30 percent since the major liquidation on October 10th, causing prices to react sharply even to small sell-offs. He doesn't completely rule out the possibility of an "extension" to the mid-$80,000s in the options market; however, current levels or a rapid recovery are more likely.In conclusion, Bitcoin's sub-$90,000 surge has created a cold shower in the market; however, the outlook for major institutions remains unchanged. The view that we are entering a period of diminishing selling pressure, improving on-chain data, and supportive macro conditions is gaining strength. If ETF outflows slow down and the $95,000-$100,000 range is breached again, the year-end rally that Standard Chartered is signaling is still on the table. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $91,280.
