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Bitcoin Drops: Billions of Dollars Out of ETFs for Three Consecutive Weeks
The Bitcoin market entered the weekend with a sharp sell-off, hitting a new low that pushed the price to a six-month low. The sell-off, which accelerated on Sunday afternoon, pushed BTC to $93,000, and analysts say this sharp move, despite no apparent compelling reason, is due to a "structural disruption." The Kobeissi Letter team considers this surge in volatility not a random wave but the beginning of a new bear cycle. Bitcoin has lost approximately 25 percent of its value since its all-time high in early October. While the price eased to the $95,000 range amid the sharp sell-off over the weekend, analysts describe this decline as "strange." The current macro environment suggests a more positive backdrop for Bitcoin under normal circumstances. Inflation in the US is slowly declining, the Fed continues its interest rate cuts, and expectations for a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing have strengthened. President Trump even recently stated that "America should be number one in crypto." Therefore, the market's downward movement isn't based on a classic negative development. The Kobeissi team states that the decline is a "mechanical and structural" disruption, triggered by the massive outflow of institutions at the end of October. In the first week of November alone, there was a net outflow of $1.2 billion from crypto funds, one of the largest weekly outflows ever recorded.Increasing Leverage Use: A Major Problem in the MarketThe problem is compounded by leverage. The outflow of institutional funds, coupled with the high leverage used in derivatives markets, has exacerbated price movements. Liquidations exceeded $1 billion in three of the last 16 trading days. Daily liquidations exceeding $500 million have become commonplace. When such large liquidations occur during periods of relatively weak trading volume, the market moves sharply in both directions. This causes sentiment to shift from extreme optimism to intense fear within a few days.The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index fell to its lowest level since February over the weekend. Interestingly, BTC is still 25% above its April lows. Analysts summarized the reason for the current volatility by saying, "Leverage magnifies even the smallest shift in investor sentiment."ETF outflows are at their peakMeanwhile, ETF outflows are also weighing on the picture. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total outflow of $1.11 billion between November 10 and 14. BlackRock's IBIT fund alone lost $532 million. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust saw outflows of approximately $290 million in a single week. This trend suggests a short-term cooling in institutional demand.A total of $617 million was liquidated in the crypto market over the weekend, $243 million of which came from BTC and $169 million from ETH. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $95,200, its lowest level in the last six months. Despite this outlook, analysts at Kobeissi Letter argue that the market's fundamentals continue to strengthen. The macro outlook is supportive, regulatory uncertainty is decreasing, and some long-term investors see these levels as an opportunity to accumulate. The analysts note, "These structural breaks will clear over time. The bottom may be near," indicating that this process is temporary.
US Inflation Data Not on the Calendar: What's the Situation in the Crypto Market?
For months, leverage, funding, and liquidity appetite were largely adjusted to US inflation data. The CPI calendar, which traders use as a compass every month, remained blank this time despite the government reopening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the report would not be released because data collection for October was completely halted during the government shutdown.What is the impact of the US CPI data on the cryptocurrency market?The October CPI, normally due on November 13th (November 14th in Turkey), was nullified because the shutdown completely interrupted the data collection process. Teams required to be out in the field throughout October were unable to collect price samples. The BLS notes that this may not be accurately reconstructed later. Therefore, the October data may have been completely "down."A White House spokesperson issued a harsh statement arguing that this gap was due to the Democrats' stance. However, beyond the controversy, the lack of data itself was critical for the markets. Because the last completed CPI report covered September and was released on October 24th, delayed by the lockdown. Headline and core inflation were at 3.0 percent year-over-year.The crypto market entered the week with this data gap. Bitcoin and Ethereum started the day without a macro catalyst, which they expected to create volatility. However, the market still saw sharp movements. Bitcoin fell nearly 6 percent during the session; a widespread sell-off occurred in altcoins. Liquidity is weak, open interest is low, and the market is essentially on the defensive against the uncertainty created by the lack of data.What is the impact of the US CPI data on the cryptocurrency market?The lack of CPI data broke the chain established for years between macro and crypto. Normally, a soft inflation data release creates expectations that the Fed will take a looser path; the dollar weakens, bond yields decline, and Bitcoin finds buyers. Conversely, hot data creates a perception of tight policy and suppresses risk appetite. This time, this cycle has been completely suspended. Markets are now set to December 10th. Trading Economics lists this date as the "next release," but the data field is left blank. This appears to be a placeholder on the calendar, not a confirmed data date.This gap raises three different possibilities. The first is that the BLS managed to compile a figure for October using partial samples or modeling. Such a figure would be a data point that the market would approach cautiously due to its low quality. However, if the monthly increase falls to 0.2 percent or less, the dollar could soften, and the cryptocurrency market might see short-term relief. Ethereum and high-beta altcoins could follow traditional behavioral patterns.In the second scenario, the data is in the "sticky" zone, meaning it's in the 0.3-0.4 percent monthly range. This scenario could create a directionless day for both the bond and crypto markets. It wouldn't be surprising if Bitcoin remains flat, altcoins outperform, and funding rates turn negative. The third path is more drastic: If the monthly increase reaches 0.5 percent or more, the Fed is priced in to maintain its tight stance for an extended period. In such a scenario, the dollar strengthens, bond yields rise, and the cryptocurrency side typically experiences daily declines of 3-6 points, high liquidation volumes, and rapid deleveraging cycles.The most unusual possibility is that the October data is completely ignored. If the BLS confirms it cannot fill this gap, markets will be forced to proceed without a true inflation measurement for nearly two months directly until the November data. In this case, crypto becomes a more "macro-filtered" asset class. Instead of sharp movements driven by short-term data, slower liquidity flows, ETF inflows and outflows, and institutional behavioral patterns become prominent.During such periods, the capital risk curve is rarely moved down. Bitcoin remains at the center due to its liquidity depth and the strength of its narrative. Meanwhile, the altcoins, which require speculative momentum, remain under pressure.
Sharp Crypto Market Drop: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs See Record Outflow
The crypto market had an extremely rough start to the week. As of Friday morning, all major assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced strong selling pressure; ETF data further darkened the picture. While Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs experienced one of their worst days in history, the XRP ETF bucked the trend by recording surprisingly strong inflows around the same time.According to Coinglass data, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $866.7 million in outflows in one day. This figure marked the third-largest net outflow since the ETFs' launch. Ethereum ETFs were even more striking, with $410 million outflows in a single session. Even the selling pressure generated by October's high volatility couldn't reach these levels.The outflow wave, led by the market's largest ETF providers like BlackRock and Fidelity, demonstrates a significant risk aversion among institutional investors. ETF data is no longer just a market detail; it has become one of the most powerful indicators of the crypto ecosystem's overall risk appetite. Therefore, each new breakout signals a deepening market fragility.Macro pressures hit all risky assetsThe crypto sell-off wasn't solely driven by internal market factors. US stock markets also experienced their worst day in a month. The mass sell-off in technology stocks, in particular, accelerated as investors grew increasingly concerned about the high valuations of AI companies. The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the weakening of interest rate cut expectations further exacerbated the situation.In this atmosphere, appetite for risky assets abruptly diminished; the crypto market is typically one of the most severely affected during such periods. Under this pressure, Bitcoin fell below $100,000, losing its psychological threshold and was trading around $97,000 at the time of writing. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index also fell sharply, falling into the "extreme fear" zone.What does the technical outlook suggest?Bitcoin closed the week with a loss of over 5%, while technical indicators confirm the dominance of sellers. The RSI of 35 suggests the market is still trading in a strong selling zone. If Bitcoin closes below the $97,460 support, analysts predict the price could weaken to the $95,000 range. The outlook for Ethereum is also weak. After rejecting the broken trendline resistance at $3,592 earlier this week, ETH has lost nearly 10% in three days and retreated to the $3,200 region. If ETH loses the $3,170 support, analysts predict a new correction toward the $3,017 region.
Czech Republic's Central Bank Takes Historic Step: Acquires Bitcoin and Stablecoins
The Czech National Bank (CNB) has taken a groundbreaking step for central banking in Europe. The bank announced the creation of a $1 million digital asset portfolio consisting of Bitcoin, a US dollar-pegged stablecoin, and a tokenized deposit. This portfolio is not part of the institution's official international reserves; it is a test account created solely for training, experience, and future planning purposes.The Czech National Bank breaks the moldCentral banks are known to shy away from directly holding cryptocurrencies. Due to volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and institutional risks, digital assets have not been included on central banks' balance sheets until now. Therefore, the CNB's move is considered both a first in the European Union and a significant global milestone.The CNB approved this pilot on October 30th. According to the bank's statement, the aim is to directly experience the processes of purchasing, storing, and managing blockchain-based assets. The experience gained from this process will be shared in regular reports over the next 2-3 years. The bank emphasizes that the total investment amount will not be increased and that this portfolio is financed independently of existing reserves.The most interesting aspect of this pilot program is that Bitcoin will be included on a central bank's balance sheet for the first time. CNB President Aleš Michl says that this idea was first raised in January 2025. This proposal, criticized by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde at the time, has now received official approval from the CNB's board of directors. The Czech Republic, despite being an EU member, has not adopted the euro, giving its central bank more leeway.Michl stated the following in a statement today: “I proposed the idea of a test portfolio in January 2025. Our goal was to understand how a decentralized asset like Bitcoin is positioned from a central bank perspective and to assess its potential for diversifying our reserves.”The assets added to the bank's test portfolio aren't limited to Bitcoin. The portfolio also includes a USD stablecoin; this was included to better understand the practical application of the blockchain-based dollar. It also examines how a tokenized deposit and the digital representation of traditional financial assets work.
43-Day US Government Shutdown Ends: How Crypto Markets Affected
US President Donald Trump officially ended the longest government shutdown in the country's history by signing the funding bill passed by the House of Representatives on Wednesday. This 43-day process forced federal agencies to operate at nearly half capacity, directly impacting the crypto ecosystem as well as financial markets.The bill, approved by the Senate earlier this week, took effect with Trump's signature after quickly passing the House. The new funding grants the federal government authority to operate until January 30, 2026, meaning both Democrats and Republicans have a window of several months for more comprehensive budget negotiations.One of the key points of the shutdown was healthcare spending. Democrats wanted more funding for this area, while Republicans argued that regulations should be addressed after the bill was signed. Trump stated his openness to compromise on this issue after the signing, saying, "I'm willing to work with both parties. We can do better on healthcare."What's changing on the crypto side?The government reopening means that crucial institutions, especially in the crypto ecosystem, will return to full capacity. The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) were operating with limited staff throughout the shutdown. This had caused critical crypto applications to remain on hold. Here's what's expected now:Decision-making processes for spot crypto ETF applications will accelerate again.The CFTC will proceed with the November 19th confirmation hearing of Mike Selig, Trump's favorite for the agency, as planned.The Treasury Department will continue to review the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act feedback, which includes feedback collected between early October and early November.All of these developments are clearly critical for the crypto markets in the medium term. Both the progress of the ETF filings and the clarification of the stablecoin regulatory framework will determine the overall direction of the sector heading into 2026.Initial market reaction is subduedThe end of previous government shutdowns throughout history has generated strong gains in crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin. However, this time the picture looks different. The Bitcoin price showed minimal movement following the news, while the broader market remained flat. According to analysts, there are two reasons for this:While the impact of this shutdown on crypto-related institutions was well-known, markets had largely priced it in.Global macro uncertainty remains high, and investor risk appetite remains weak.Nevertheless, the government's reopening represents a significant "unblocking" for the crypto market. Markets may see clearer movement in the coming weeks, particularly as the ETF application update process becomes active again.
Sygnum: Institutions Strong in Crypto, But 2026 Anxiety Grows
Institutional investors are turning to crypto markets again. According to a new report from Sygnum Bank, institutional interest in crypto assets increased rapidly in the last quarter of the year, this time driven not by short-term gains but by portfolio diversification. However, experts warn that this momentum may slow as 2026 approaches.Sygnum Report: Institutions Focus on CryptosIt has been revealed that institutional investors turned to crypto assets in the last quarter of the year, but expectations of a "boom" signal a slowdown towards 2026. The "Future Finance 2025" report from Sygnum Bank, the Swiss-Singapore-based digital asset bank, revealed this trend.According to the report's key findings, 61% of institutional investors plan to increase their digital asset investments, with this figure reaching 38% for the fourth quarter of the year. There is also a significant shift in the motivation for investing in crypto assets: "Speculation" is no longer the primary motivation, replacing it with portfolio diversification. The Sygnum research team interprets this shift as "institutional players are moving from thinking of crypto solely as a defensive position to seeing it as a way to participate in the structural transformation of global finance." In short, crypto assets are now beginning to be accepted as an alternative investment class, not just a short-term source of profit.Strategy ChangeA significant shift is also being observed in the approach of institutional investors. Actively managed strategies (42%) now surpass index-based strategies (39%). This suggests that investors are shifting from a "buy a token and wait" model to flexible strategies that can respond quickly to policy changes and market fluctuations.Furthermore, interest in investment instruments beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased significantly. More than 80% of investors expressed interest in broader crypto ETFs, and nearly 70% said they would increase their allocation if offered staking advantages. Furthermore, the tokenization of real-world assets is also on the rise: interest in this direction has increased from 6% to 26% compared to a year ago. Cautious Outlook for 2026However, not all the data is entirely positive. The report describes 2025 as a "year of moderate risk and strong demand catalysts," noting that factors such as regulatory uncertainty and declining liquidity could weigh on momentum. Indeed, while the vast majority of investors remain confident in the long term, it predicts that crypto market momentum could begin to decline starting in mid-2026.Among the data included in the report: 91% of high-net-worth individuals believe crypto will play a key role in long-term wealth preservation. 81% view Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, and nearly 70% believe that holding cash for the next five years carries a higher opportunity cost than holding Bitcoin.
Investors Change Course: SOL, LTC, and XRP Shine on Fund Inflows
The wave of outflows in digital asset investment products continued into its second week. According to CoinShares' November 10, 2025 report, net outflows totaled $1.17 billion last week. This figure is attributed to the ongoing uncertainty in the market following the liquidity crash in mid-October and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hesitation regarding interest rate cuts.Trading volumes hovered around $43 billion throughout the week; while brief hopes of a US government reopening boosted fund inflows on Thursday, this optimism quickly dissipated on Friday.US-based funds led the negative trend. US markets alone saw outflows of $1.22 billion, while Germany and Switzerland saw positive inflows in Europe with $41.3 million and $49.7 million, respectively.Bitcoin and Ethereum ExplodeBitcoin and Ethereum accounted for the largest portion of fund outflows. Bitcoin products saw net outflows of $932 million and $438 million, respectively. Specifically, the iShares (BlackRock) Bitcoin ETF saw $876 million in outflows, and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund saw $438 million. Grayscale also saw a $142 million decline.The sell-off in Bitcoin also fueled the shift towards short-term products. Short Bitcoin ETPs saw $11.8 million in inflows, the highest weekly increase since May 2025.Altcoins Resist: Solana Leads the WayDespite the selling pressure in major cryptocurrencies, altcoins remained resilient. Solana once again led the way with $118.4 million in weekly inflows. Over the past nine weeks, Solana funds have seen a total capital inflow of over $2.1 billion. XRP also saw a strong weekly inflow of $28.2 million. Other assets saw small but notable movements: Litecoin saw $1.9 million in inflows, and multi-asset products saw $12.3 million in inflows. In comparison, Sui saw $3.8 million in outflows, and Cardano saw $0.1 million.Table by Fund ProviderAccording to CoinShares data, iShares closed the week with the largest outflow, with $876 million. Fidelity saw a $438 million decline, while Grayscale saw a $142 million decline. In contrast, ProShares ETFs saw $158 million in inflows, 21Shares $22 million, and Bitwise $3 million.While the overall net inflow into crypto investment products has maintained $47.8 billion since the beginning of the year, outflows in the last two weeks indicate a significant cooling in investor sentiment.Regional Differences DeepenWhile the US remains at the center of outflow pressure, European markets remain relatively balanced. Germany and Switzerland maintained their positive trend, while Canada and Hong Kong experienced outflows of $7.6 million and $24.5 million, respectively. The report emphasizes that the reshaping of capital flows in the market is closely linked to Fed policies and global risk appetite.
Big Step from CFTC: Leveraged Crypto Trading is on the Way
The US is on the cusp of a new era in crypto markets. Caroline Pham, the interim chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), announced that legislation is underway to authorize leveraged spot crypto trading. If implemented, investors will be able to trade spot crypto with leverage on regulated platforms within the US for the first time. This move could bring liquidity, which has long been diverted to offshore exchanges, back to the US and pave the way for the country to gain a more active position in the crypto markets.Critical crypto move in the USCaroline Pham, the interim chair of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), confirmed that they are preparing to authorize leveraged spot crypto trading nationwide. Pham stated that they are in discussions with regulated US-based exchanges and that the first leveraged spot products could launch next month. In a post on X, Pham officially confirmed the process, saying, "We are working towards allowing leveraged spot crypto trading in the US." She also noted that despite the partial government shutdown, discussions with industry representatives are ongoing. The CFTC is reportedly considering issuing guidance for these products.This development follows the CFTC's "spot cryptoasset contracts" initiative launched in August. This initiative aimed to gather public input on rules for retail commodity transactions conducted with collateral or financing. According to Federal Register data, "leveraged or secured retail commodity transactions" fall under the CFTC's jurisdiction as long as delivery is not made within 28 days. This means that leveraged spot trading is legal in the US only for certain periods and under certain conditions.According to CoinDesk, Pham is currently in direct talks with large CFTC-registered financial institutions and crypto-focused platforms. These institutions include major players like CME, Cboe Futures Exchange, and ICE Futures, as well as Coinbase Derivatives, Kalshi, and Polymarket US. The focus of the discussions is on the creation of new spot crypto trading infrastructures that include leverage, margin, and financing. This will allow investors to access instruments previously only available on overseas exchanges through regulated US markets.Pham emphasized that this process aligns with the recommendations of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets. According to these recommendations, institutions should use their existing legal authority to regulate digital asset markets while Congress drafts new legislation. "We are swiftly utilizing our existing authority while continuing to work with Congress on regulatory clarity," Pham said.If the plan goes through, the US will become the first major economy to allow leveraged spot crypto trading within its borders. This step could increase both transparency and investor protection, but it could also lead to a significant repatriation of liquidity from overseas markets to the US. Leveraged spot trading in a regulated environment could accelerate the integration of digital assets into the US financial system by increasing the participation of institutional investors.
Is the US Government Opening? Bitcoin Surpasses $106,000
Positive developments regarding the budget package passed by the US Senate have sparked a notable rally in cryptocurrency markets. The uncertainty that had increased in the markets following the 40-day federal government shutdown has eased somewhat as the package progresses toward approval.First and foremost is data. Bitcoin rose approximately 2% in 24 hours, trading near $106,000. Ethereum rose approximately 7.8% to $3,632. XRP gained 8.4%, Binance Coin 3.7%, and Solana 7.8%. The Senate made progress on the disagreements that led to the government shutdownThe primary reason behind this rise is that the budget package, which passed the Senate with a 60-40 vote, is perceived by markets as a signal that the threat is disappearing. If enacted, it will allow for the reopening of closed institutions, the payment of government salaries, and the economy to operate at full capacity again. It's not surprising that the markets reacted in this direction. Some prominent comments in market analyses include: Peter Chung, research director at Presto Research, stated, “The prolonged lockdown has drained liquidity from overnight loans and increased anxiety in the markets. Once this burden is lifted, risk assets can be directed.” Similarly, Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, said, “The decline in macro uncertainty and policy optimism have increased buying appetite in the crypto market.”Furthermore, the government reopening not only boosts market morale for the day but also normalizes economic data flow, supporting the policy decision-making process of institutions like the Federal Reserve. For example, BTSE COO Jeff Mei summarized this situation by saying, “Economic indicators will return to normal, and stimulus measures may become more visible from now on.” Furthermore, Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, emphasized that risk assets, including crypto, have gained momentum as the dollar index's momentum stalled and liquidity increased. Considering the crypto market movement in a broader context: As Asian markets opened, US stock futures rose, and the previous pressure on the dollar/currency front partially eased. Under these circumstances, Bitcoin and other leading digital assets re-confirmed their position in the "risky asset" category. A technically upward trend has formed in the market in the short term.However, an important side note: The Senate decision is not yet final. After receiving approval from the House of Representatives, the bill will be sent to the President for consideration for signature. Any disruption could resurface uncertainty, potentially exacerbating market turmoil. In this context, indicators investors should closely monitor include fund flows (especially ETFs focused on crypto), Bitcoin's dominance rates, and whether altcoins will join this rally.
$5.4 Billion in Options Expiration on Bitcoin and Ethereum: Markets Hold Their Breath
The crypto market is preparing for a new turning point with $5.4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today on the Deribit exchange. This massive expiration is a critical test that will determine both price volatility and investor behavior. Bitcoin is trading around $102,000, while Ethereum is trading sideways around $3,350.In the options market, attention is particularly focused on Bitcoin's "max pain" level of $107,000. This level represents the price range where the majority of investors incur the most losses. Meanwhile, $3,800 stands out as a similar psychological and technical resistance for Ethereum.Traders are cautious, but still betting against volatilityAt a time when analysts are warning of "end-of-cycle signals," it's noteworthy that traders are trying to suppress volatility with short positions. An analysis by Greeks.live indicates that many investors continue to sell options, focusing on the ETH 3,650, 3,400, and 3,800 levels. These strategies are based on the expectation that the market will remain stable; however, it also emphasizes the potential for significant losses if prices suddenly break out. Open interest in Bitcoin options has reached 45,802 contracts. Of these, 25,570 are calls and 20,233 are puts. The total open interest exceeds $4.6 billion. This suggests that investors are still actively holding positions despite the uncertainty in the market.The defensive line for Ethereum is $3,800The outlook for Ethereum options is slightly more cautious. The put/call ratio is at 0.9, suggesting a balanced but defensive outlook. The largest open interest is concentrated in puts at $3,500 and calls at $4,200. This strengthens the possibility that the price will move within this range in the short term. According to data, the total open interest in ETH options on Deribit reaches $713 million. Traders often attempt to limit downside risk and capitalize on potential upsides with complex strategies such as "calendar spread," "risk reversal," and "straddle."Macro pressures persistThis critical juncture in the options market is compounded by increasing macro pressures. Recent US inflation data (CPI) and statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell have weakened ETF inflows. Despite this, the high open interest rate in the options market suggests that investors are still determined to remain in the market.The general market sentiment can be described as "cautious optimism." While increased volatility is expected in the short term, the majority of traders believe prices will not fall below $100,000. However, if volatility surges after expiration, sharp price movements in the crypto market may be inevitable today.
Bitcoin “Still Cheap”: JPMorgan Gives Markets Hope with $170,000 Prediction
Although Bitcoin has experienced sharp fluctuations in recent weeks, according to JPMorgan analysts, it still has significant upside potential. In its latest report, the bank stated that Bitcoin remains "cheap" compared to gold and that if it reaches fair value, its price could reach as high as $170,000. Institutional analysts emphasize that the market has regained a healthy footing with the decline in leverage ratios, increasing the likelihood of a strong recovery in the next 6 to 12 months.JPMorgan analysts offer reassuranceBitcoin is back on the agenda of institutional analysts. In its new report, JPMorgan predicted that the leading cryptocurrency could reach $170,000 within 6 to 12 months. The bank's analysts stated that the normalization of leverage ratios and the fact that Bitcoin remains "extremely cheap" compared to gold could support this rise. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that leverage ratios in the futures market have largely been eliminated following the sharp decline in October, creating a "healthier platform" for price action. According to the report, Bitcoin's volatility-adjusted "fair value" relative to gold is well above current levels. Analysts argue that if this gap closes, Bitcoin should trade around $170,000.The bank also noted that gold's recent record highs, coupled with its increased volatility, make Bitcoin more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis. According to JPMorgan data, the Bitcoin-gold volatility ratio has fallen to 1.8. This means Bitcoin is now only 1.8 times riskier than gold. The report stated, "Taking this ratio into account, Bitcoin's current market capitalization is $2.1 trillion, and this figure should increase by approximately 67%, thus equating to a theoretical price of $170,000." Meanwhile, while the sharp correction experienced by the overall market has demoralized investors, many analysts believe Bitcoin is regaining strength after the selling pressure. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the $106,000 level has become a key resistance level following the recent recovery. According to Poppe, if Bitcoin can surpass this level, the market could regain positive sentiment and pave the way for a new uptrend.Some analysts highlighted the remarkable outperformance of the Nasdaq index compared to Bitcoin. Market strategist Crypto Rover stated that the gap between the two assets has "widened to a historic level" and could close soon.All these developments suggest that Bitcoin is beginning to show signs of recovery after one of its sharpest corrections in 2025. The 20% drop in October, combined with the $128 million Balancer attack and massive liquidations in futures, created a significant deleveraging in the market. However, JPMorgan analysts interpret this process as "the beginning of a new bullish cycle."Consequently, the trajectory of Bitcoin in the coming months remains uncertain. However, institutional analysts' $170,000 forecast indicates that the market still believes in its long-term potential. The deleveraging and increased gold volatility are noteworthy.As of November 7, 2025, the Bitcoin price is around $101,531.
Galaxy Lowers Bitcoin Forecast After $20 Billion Liquidation
Galaxy Digital, stating that the crypto market has entered a period of maturity with institutional participation, lowered its year-end Bitcoin (BTC) price target from $185,000 to $120,000 in its monthly report. Alex Thorn, the company's Head of Research, stated that Bitcoin has entered a "maturity period" where it is no longer driven by individual investors, but rather by large funds and ETF inflows. According to Thorn, while this doesn't completely end the upward trend, it signals the beginning of a period in which gains will progress more slowly.Galaxy Digital Lowers Bitcoin ForecastGalaxy Digital revised its forecast, particularly after the "flash crash" that occurred on October 10th. That day's sharp decline resulted in liquidations of approximately $20 billion, briefly dropping Bitcoin from $121,000 to below $105,000. This was recorded as the largest liquidation in crypto history. According to the company's analysis, long-term investors sold approximately 400,000 to 470,000 BTC during the recent downturn. These sales created supply pressures of between $43 billion and $50 billion, making it difficult for Bitcoin's price to recover. On-chain data shows the market losing momentum due to weakening spot demand and increased ETF outflows. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the US saw over $1 billion outflow in just five days.Galaxy also points to a shift in capital direction behind this trend. A significant portion of investors are now shifting to areas like artificial intelligence (AI) and gold. According to Thorn, while data center and AI infrastructure company stocks have risen rapidly in recent months, Bitcoin's speculative appeal has diminished. This shift is limiting the potential for a recovery in the crypto market.Geopolitical tensions and the uncertain macroeconomic outlook are also causing investors to turn to safer havens. While gold has once again emerged as a hedge against inflation, capital outflows from digital assets continue. Thorn stated, “Even in a liquid environment, attention is a limited resource. This year, the investment focus has shifted from digital assets to the artificial intelligence sector.”Galaxy Digital notes that Bitcoin spot ETFs haven't driven the market upwards permanently, but passive inflows from institutional and individual ETF investors have reduced volatility. This provides short-term stability but limits sudden price increases.According to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno, if the current selling pressure continues, the BTC price could fall to $72,000 in the short term. Moreno noted that the decline in spot demand and ETF outflows have been ongoing since the October crash.While the price of Bitcoin fell below $100,000 at the beginning of the week, it has since recovered by more than 5% to around $103,000. Ethereum has also risen from $3,100 to $3,400. However, the market remains fragile as capital outflows from ETFs continue. Galaxy Digital argues that Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain strong despite short-term pressures. "Market cycles are inherent to crypto assets," Thorn said. "This consolidation phase does not invalidate Bitcoin's long-term projections."
Trump's Crypto Statement: "We've Ended the War"
All eyes are once again on the US in the crypto markets. President Donald Trump delivered a strong message of support for the cryptocurrency industry during his speech at the America Business Forum in Miami. Sharing his vision for the future of Bitcoin and digital assets, Trump emphasized that America should not lag behind in this area and declared that the "crypto war is over."Donald Trump makes a statement on cryptocurrencyAt an event held in Florida on November 5, 2025, as part of the America Business Forum, Donald J. Trump asserted that the US will be the leading country in the cryptocurrency space. He declared, "We are making America the Bitcoin superpower and the crypto capital of the world."In his speech, he claimed that the federal "war" on the cryptocurrency sector is over. He stated, "Crypto was under pressure, but it's not anymore," and presented a new vision. However, this vision did not include concrete timelines or new institutional directions.Trump suggested that digital assets could play a significant role not only in the technology field but also in the financial sphere. He stated that cryptocurrencies reduce pressure on the dollar and could benefit the US in terms of currency sovereignty. He used the phrase, "It alleviates pressure on the dollar."He also warned that rival countries like China could use the crypto sector to their advantage, emphasizing that the US should take an active role in this area. "If it's not done right, this is a major industry, and China is about to start," he said.Government steps are also progressing, albeit slowly, in line with the vision outlined in Trump's speech. Earlier this year, there were signs of the establishment of federal structures such as the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and the "Digital Asset Stockpile" in the US; however, Bitcoin purchases have not yet materialized.Furthermore, the GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, laid the groundwork for a regulatory framework for stablecoins. However, the market structure and comprehensive regulations are not yet fully established.Why did Trump emphasize crypto?Trump's emphasis on crypto did not emerge overnight. Previous administrations' regulatory crackdown on crypto and the general atmosphere of uncertainty had led to a lack of confidence in the sector. Trump described this situation as a "war," suggesting that this perception had been reversed. He also emphasized the crypto sector's size and support from the business community: "It's a big industry. There are a lot of businesspeople... they were in other businesses, but crypto is also involved," he said. This statement aims to demonstrate that crypto goes beyond being a mere investment tool and offers the potential to create economic growth and jobs.
Bitcoin Drops Below $100,000: $1.7 Billion Liquidated
The crypto market is experiencing a sharp sell-off. Bitcoin fell below $100,000, and a total of $1.7 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours. US-traded spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs also saw a net outflow of $797 million on the same day. Investors are avoiding risk due to hawkish messages from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the uncertainty created by the US government shutdown.Massive liquidations in the crypto marketAccording to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $577.74 million in outflows. This was the highest daily outflow since August 1st. Fidelity's FBTC fund withdrew $356.6 million, Ark & 21Shares' ARKB fund $128 million, and Grayscale's GBTC fund $48.9 million. A total of seven Bitcoin funds closed with negative flows on the day. This extended a five-day outflow trend that has exceeded $1.9 billion.The situation was similar on the Ethereum side. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $219.37 million in outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA fund leading the way with $111 million. Grayscale and Fidelity's Ethereum funds also saw outflows. Solana ETFs saw only a small inflow of $14.83 million, the lowest daily net inflow since launch.These fund movements led to sharp liquidations in derivatives markets. In the last 24 hours, $1.78 billion worth of positions were liquidated in the cryptocurrency markets. Long positions accounted for 77 percent of these liquidations, while long trades accounted for 72 percent of the $1.07 billion liquidations over the 12-hour period. An additional $7.1 million was liquidated in the last hour. According to the data, investors quickly closed their leveraged positions, thus deepening the decline rapidly. According to BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas, this isn't a "simple pause," but rather a strategic repositioning by institutional investors. "This fifth consecutive day of gains represents a recalibration focused on risk management," Lucas said.Macroeconomic headwinds are also weighing on crypto. Recent statements by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have weakened the likelihood of a December interest rate cut. This has pushed the dollar index (DXY) back above 100. The strengthening dollar has put pressure on crypto assets, which are highly correlated with technology stocks. Lucas commented, "The unraveling of the valuation bubble in AI stocks could spill over into crypto; the high correlation with the Nasdaq is driving this."Bitcoin fell 2.7 percent to $101,731 in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum fell 4.7 percent to $3,326. The 24-hour period also saw Bitcoin lose support at $100,000 and drop to $99,076. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 21, entering "extreme fear" territory. Experts believe such periods signal periods of increased volatility but also opportunities for long-term investors.
French Company Sold Some of Its Bitcoin to Pay Off Debt
French semiconductor company Sequans Communications sold some of its Bitcoin holdings to reduce its debt burden. By selling 970 Bitcoins, the company repaid 50% of its convertible bonds. This move reduced its total debt from $189 million to $95 million, while strengthening its balance sheet.Sequans sold 970 BitcoinsThe company's Bitcoin reserves, which stood at 3,234 before the recent sale, decreased to 2,264. At current market prices, the total value of these assets is approximately $240 million. This has reduced Sequans's debt-to-net-asset ratio from 55% to 39%. With this reduction, the company aims to increase its financial flexibility and create shareholder value. Sequans CEO Georges Karam stated, “Our Bitcoin asset strategy and belief in this asset have not changed. This sale is a tactical decision made in response to market conditions. We wanted to increase our balance sheet strength in the interest of our shareholders.”Following the debt repayment, the company also plans to accelerate its previously announced ADS (American Depositary Share) repurchase plan. It is also stated that the removal of some restrictions in the debt agreements will allow for more capital markets initiatives in the future. These initiatives include issuing new preferred shares or generating returns with a portion of Bitcoin holdings.Paris-based Sequans Communications develops wireless 4G/5G cellular connectivity solutions and focuses particularly on the Internet of Things (IoT). The company adopted Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset in early 2025. This decision was part of a corporate trend where digital assets are considered a long-term store of value instead of traditional cash management. From a financial perspective, Sequans' second-quarter revenues were $8.1 million, a 1.1% increase compared to the previous year. However, the company reported a net loss of $9.1 million. Despite this, market analysts believe that debt reduction and its Bitcoin strategy could positively impact the company's balance sheet in the medium term.Research firm B. Riley has issued a "buy" recommendation on Sequans shares and set a target price of $13. According to analysts, the company's shares currently trade at just 0.7 times adjusted net asset value, a valuation below the industry average.
