Bitcoin is making headlines again. Having reached a new all-time high of $125,750 over the weekend, BTC began the new week with a slight correction and is trading at $123,886.21 according to the latest price data. Following September's volatile run, the rally, which exceeded 9% in October, has gained technical strength as the $120,000 level transitioned from resistance to support. This threshold strengthens the position of buyers while limiting selling pressure for now.
US Government Shutdown Impacts Bitcoin
The market's story isn't just about the charts. The possibility of a slowdown in data flow due to the US government shutdown has fueled expectations that global central banks will remain cautious, reviving the "safe haven" narrative. Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is supporting this narrative on the price side. Indeed, the rally came over the weekend, a day when liquidity is generally shallower; This suggests that the move was fueled by spot demand and ETF inflows rather than a single-day squeeze. The cryptocurrency's total market capitalization rose to approximately $4.07 trillion, while the Fear & Greed Index stood at 64, a region devoid of excessive enthusiasm but still open to risk appetite.
The altcoin picture is mixed. While the market retreated, profit-taking was prominent in some majors; however, weekly divergences continue. BNB closed the week on a high note and maintains its momentum; its latest price was $1,212.01. Ethereum is at $4,568.31. While October's performance wasn't as aggressive as Bitcoin's, institutional demand and the staking narrative are keeping ETH strong. Solana is off its yearly lows at $233.68; developer interest in the ecosystem and accelerating DeFi activity are providing support below the price. XRP is at $2.9935; increasing open interest in the derivatives market suggests the search for a catalyst in spot continues. TRX is at $0.3438 and DOGE is at $0.25695; while short-term fluctuations continue on the memecoin side, sharp movements have become intermittent thanks to deep liquidity. The health of the stablecoin front is also noteworthy: USDT is at 0.99992116; USDC is at 0.9995. The approximately $45 billion expansion in stablecoin supply in the last quarter suggests that ammunition is accumulating for new buying waves.
In the technical picture for Bitcoin price, the focus is once again on the $125,000 range. This level is no longer merely psychological; it is also a region where long-term investors have been selling from time to time since July. A rapid approach and unsuccessful attempt in the short term signal that supply is still the dominant force; a climb under gradual and calm funding conditions increases the likelihood of a break above the resistance. Below $120,000 remains a current "quality test"; staying above this level is critical for maintaining the trend without tiring. It is beneficial to seek confirmation on volume during the week. From a macroeconomic perspective, two themes stand out: the "expectation of monetary easing" and the "erosion of the dollar's value." The simultaneous rise in the price of gold reinforces this framework; these periods, when risk assets and safe havens rise together, generally coincide with phases where the possibility of easing monetary conditions is priced in. ETF inflows into institutional structures, news of companies adding BTC to their balance sheets, and the recovery in crypto-related stocks are other links in the chain.
In summary, there's no clear answer to the question "is the bull run over?"; however, the data suggests the run is taking a break and we're in the early stages of the marathon. $125,000 is a short-term magnet; it's likely to be tested. A break above suggests new exploration territory; a decline below suggests a reactionary force in the $120,000–122,000 range. Within this framework, risk management, leverage discipline, and the direction of stable liquidity flow will again be decisive in portfolio management.
