Global financial giant Citigroup has updated its year-end forecast for the cryptocurrency market. Driven by strong institutional demand and inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the bank revised its price target for Ether upwards, while making a small downward adjustment to its Bitcoin forecast.
Citigroup Releases New Report on Bitcoin and Ethereum
According to Citigroup's new report, the year-end price target for Ether has been raised from $4,300 to $4,500. The bank stated that this increase was driven by increasing institutional demand, particularly through spot ETFs, and strong inflows from digital asset treasuries. This development demonstrates that confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem and liquidity inflows remain vibrant.
In contrast, the revision for Bitcoin paints a relatively more cautious picture. Citigroup lowered its year-end price forecast for Bitcoin from $135,000 to $133,000. Bank analysts pointed to the strengthening dollar index and recent weakening gold prices as the reasons for this downward correction. It was stated that these two factors could limit investors' risk appetite.
However, we are seeing Bitcoin moving in the opposite direction of Citigroup's prediction. Market data shows that Bitcoin is holding above $118,000, and trading volumes have increased by 32% to over $77 billion. While this outlook indicates continued interest in the market, analysts are debating whether the strong resistance level at $124,000 can be broken.
The Latest on the Bitcoin Rally
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are the primary driver of this rally. Exceeding $150 billion in assets under management and daily inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars are creating a supply-squeeze effect in the market. For example, $741 million inflows were recorded into ETFs on September 11th. Such flows continue to support the Bitcoin price. However, it is emphasized that if inflows slow, the upside potential could be limited.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision is the focus of markets. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the meeting on October 29th. Lower interest rates generally lead to a weakening of the dollar and increased demand for risky assets. Therefore, many analysts believe the Fed's policy could play a critical role in Bitcoin prices.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that large investors (whales) continue their purchases. A single wallet was recorded to have accumulated approximately 1,721 BTC (approximately $196 million) in September. Long-term investors are reported to control 67% of the total supply. This trend could reduce market liquidity and push prices higher. However, whales' focus on profit-taking risks increasing volatility, as was the case during the 2021 peak. Ultimately, Citigroup's report suggests a stronger outlook for Ethereum driven by institutional investor interest, while cautious optimism prevails for Bitcoin. For the rest of the year, the Fed's interest rate action, whether ETF inflows slow down, and whale activity will be key factors in determining the crypto market's direction.
