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Bitwise Expects 10-20X Growth for Cryptocurrencies
Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, said the crypto market could easily grow 10 to 20 times over the next decade. According to Hougan, this isn't just a bold prediction; a structural transformation is imminent, with tokenization, Bitcoin, and stablecoins rapidly moving into the mainstream. In a note to investors, he described crypto's long-term growth as "the highest-confidence bet of his career."This optimism stems from statements made last week by Paul Atkins, the former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In an interview with Fox Business, Atkins said he believes all U.S. stock markets will be traded on-chain within a few years. This approach, in Hougan's eyes, reveals a huge difference in scale. While the total size of the U.S. stock market is approximately $68 trillion, the total volume of on-chain tokenized stocks today is only around $670 million. This gap clearly highlights the early stages of the transition. According to Hougan, this outlook means that the fundamental building blocks of crypto (stablecoins, tokenization, and Bitcoin) will become even more important in the coming period. He also believes that a number of new use cases, such as oracle markets, DeFi, privacy technologies, digital identity solutions, and next-generation capital market instruments, will grow rapidly.While uncertainty increases, broad market exposure is more attractiveAnother point Hougan emphasizes is that no one can know for sure which blockchain will dominate in the long term. Hougan, who has worked full-time in the crypto industry for eight years and is in constant contact with investors, founders, and researchers, says it's impossible to predict a single winner at this stage. Hundreds of variables, including regulations, macroeconomic conditions, technological advancements, strategic moves by teams, and even luck, will influence the outcome.Therefore, Hougan states that he adopts a broad-based approach to his investment strategy. While he notes that he takes small positions in certain projects, the backbone of his portfolio consists of crypto index funds weighted by market capitalization. This approach allows him to both capitalize on growth and mitigate the risk of overinvesting in the wrong project. "Even if the market grows 100,000 times, it's possible to fall behind because you bet on the wrong horse," Hougan says, reminding us of the risky nature of individual chain selections. He believes that as the industry becomes increasingly complex, index funds will become a much more important investment tool in 2026. In his view, these funds offer an ideal solution for both managing uncertainty and capitalizing on the sector's broader rise.While uncertainties persist in the crypto market, ranging from regulation and technology to investor behavior and macroeconomics, Hougan believes that the long-term growth potential presents a historically unique opportunity. Therefore, he sees 10-20x growth as a "easily achievable" target.
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9 Dec 2025
CFTC Launches Critical Pilot Program for Bitcoin, ETH, and USDC
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken one of the most concrete steps toward bringing crypto assets to the center of regulated finance. The agency has officially launched its "digital asset pilot program," which opens the door to the use of Bitcoin, Ether, and USDC as collateral in derivatives markets. The program both demonstrates the regulatory body's transformation in its approach to crypto and focuses on the integration of tokenized assets into traditional finance. The announcement came from Caroline Pham, the CFTC's de facto Chair. Pham has long been a prominent figure within the agency in updating the framework for crypto assets; she previously launched the "Crypto Sprint" initiative and last week announced that Bitnomial was the first exchange to list regulatory-approved spot crypto products.Pham summarized the goal of the new program as "maintaining the global leadership of U.S. markets by embracing responsible innovation." According to her, the ability to use tokenized assets as collateral will help market participants manage capital more efficiently and enhance the real-time monitoring capacity of regulators. The pilot program is initially limited to Bitcoin, Ether, and USDCAccording to the framework announced by the CFTC, futures brokers (FCMs) will be able to accept only BTC, ETH, and USDC for the next three months. Participating institutions will report the total amount of digital assets held in their client accounts to the CFTC weekly. Furthermore, any operational issues, disruptions, or system errors that could affect digital assets used as collateral will be required to be immediately reported to the regulator.This framework allows the CFTC to monitor market behavior in a gradual and controlled manner while also generating valuable data on how the use of tokenized collateral works in practice.The CFTC also released new guidance jointly prepared by its three divisions on the same day. These guidances clarify how real-world assets, such as tokenized U.S. bonds and money market funds, are valued under the current regulatory framework. Topics such as custody, segregation, valuation shards, and operational risk have been redefined. The agency also withdrew its staff advisory, issued in 2020, which restricted FCMs from accepting virtual currencies as collateral. The CFTC stated that this guidance was outdated with the enactment of the GENIUS Act. The GENIUS Act, passed this summer, specifically sharpened the framework for stablecoin use.Strong support from the industry: "A milestone for the US"Leading figures in the crypto industry welcomed the move. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said the decision "proves once again that digital assets provide real benefits in terms of speed, cost, and risk management in payments." Circle President Heath Tarbert emphasized that the use of regulated stablecoins will improve settlement processes and support 24/7 trading.Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek described the decision as "a significant step toward making the US a global hub for crypto innovation." Ripple CEO Jack McDonald also stated that recognizing tokenized assets as collateral will increase capital efficiency and strengthen the competitiveness of US financial markets.
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9 Dec 2025
$716 Million Inflow into Crypto Funds: XRP and Chainlink Lead
Digital asset investment products saw a significant recovery last week. According to CoinShares data, global ETPs saw a total net inflow of $716 million. This increase signals a revival of investor appetite after the lows in November. Total assets under management (AuM) thus rose to $180 billion, a figure that, while strong, still falls short of the $264 billion peak seen in 2021.Inflows were spread throughout the week, with slight outflows on Thursday and Friday due to inflation signals from the US. Despite this, the overall improvement in market sentiment remained.The largest inflows came from the US, Germany, and CanadaThe report also points to a broadly positive picture across geographic distribution. The US, with $483 million, Germany, $96.9 million, and Canada, with $80.7 million, were the three strongest regions for the week. Consequently, buying flows were observed in nearly all major investment centers. This is considered another indicator that institutional investors' risk appetite is beginning to increase again. Bitcoin sees $352 million inflows, sharp outflows in shortsBitcoin once again saw the largest share of the week. BTC products received a net inflow of $352 million, bringing its total year-to-date inflow to $27.1 billion. While this figure is strong, it falls short of the $41.6 billion inflow recorded in 2024.Another significant indicator is the strong outflows in Bitcoin shorts.Last week, shorts saw an outflow of $18.7 million, the largest since March 2025. Similarly, at that time, prices nearing bottom indicated that investors were beginning to withdraw from bearish positions. Today's data suggests that negative sentiment is weakening.Record interest in XRP and ChainlinkThe most notable movement in recent weeks occurred in altcoins.XRP surged ahead with a weekly inflow of $245 million, bringing XRP's total inflow for the year to $3.1 billion. This figure far surpasses the $608 million inflow in 2024, demonstrating a strong institutional focus. On the Chainlink side, a historic record was broken. Link products saw $52.8 million inflow last week. This was the largest weekly inflow on record and represents over 54% of the fund's total assets. According to the figures, Chainlink was among the fastest-growing choices of institutional investors.Multi-Asset, Sui, and Solana See Moderate InflowsMulti-asset products saw $31.8 million inflows, Solana saw $3 million, and Sui saw $4.2 million. While these inflows are more limited, they indicate a general recovery trend in the altcoin market, not just a few major assets.
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8 Dec 2025
Bitcoin Starts Fed Week Above $91,000: What Are the Expectations?
Bitcoin opened the new week above $91,300, with global markets focused on the US Federal Reserve. Asian stock markets opened positively, and investors are awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. A 25 basis point rate cut has largely been priced in, but cautious messages from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are expected to dampen risk appetite.In Asia, technology stocks led a limited rally; the MSCI Asia index rose approximately 0.2 percent. US futures retreated slightly, while the dollar index showed a weaker tone. This trend also shaped the direction of crypto markets.Bitcoin Faces Resistance as It Approaches $94,000Bitcoin continued last week's recovery, rising 2 percent in the last 24 hours, but is facing resistance as it approaches the $94,000 region. Analysts indicate that if the current momentum holds, the price could move towards the $98,000-$100,000 range. Ethereum saw a 3 percent daily increase to $3,135. While the last week's performance exceeded 10 percent, there are comments that Ethereum has strengthened technically after the development team completed the Fusaka update. BNB, Solana, stETH, and XRP also saw slight increases. In contrast, Cardano was the weakest link today, falling 1.4 percent.Market sentiment remains fragileDespite the recovery in the crypto market, overall sentiment remains fragile. CryptoQuant's Bull Score index falling to zero indicates that the market is still experiencing the effects of a bear cycle. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that unless new liquidity enters the market, the upward trend may weaken, and the $55,000-$70,000 range is a potential price target for the next year. K33 Research, on the other hand, highlights some factors that could be supportive in the medium term; it is noted that 401(k) regulation changes expected at the beginning of 2026 could generate corporate retirement flows into Bitcoin.Fed Week: Expectations are strong, tone is cautiousIn global markets, the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision remains the main driver. Recent economic data, particularly the consistent monthly increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, has strengthened the likelihood of an interest rate cut. Money markets are pricing in an 88% probability that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points this week. Improved investor confidence data and a decline in inflation expectations also support this expectation.Still, analysts emphasize that a cautious tone may prevail in the Fed's forward-looking communications, which could increase volatility in risky assets. The mixed start to the week in global stock markets also reflects the impact of these expectations. Bitcoin's price behavior in recent months is reminiscent of the corrections seen in past cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich notes that the market has already experienced a sharp pullback spanning two months, and volatility may increase again as clarity on monetary policy is provided.
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8 Dec 2025
JPMorgan Reveals the Key Factor Determining Bitcoin's Short-Term Path
JPMorgan analysts say that the main factor driving Bitcoin's short-term price movements is no longer miners' selling pressure, but MicroStrategy's (Strategy/MSTR) balance sheet strength. According to a report published by the bank on Wednesday, the company's ability to stay afloat without selling its Bitcoin holdings creates a critical signal of confidence in the market; it could even be decisive in BTC overcoming the current pressure.Pay attention to Strategy for Bitcoin!Analysts emphasize that the recent hashrate and difficulty drops on the Bitcoin network are attributed to two key factors. China's recent reiteration of the ban, citing increased private mining activity, and the withdrawal of high-cost miners outside of China due to rising energy prices and the suppression of the BTC price. Normally, a decrease in hashrate increases miners' revenues; however, JPMorgan notes that this benefit has not materialized because the Bitcoin price is still below its production cost. The bank estimates that Bitcoin's average production cost fell from $94,000 in November to $90,000 as of December. This cost is highly sensitive to electricity price assumptions; every $0.01 kWh increase equates to an additional cost of approximately $18,000 for high-cost generators. Consequently, some miners have been forced to sell BTC in recent weeks due to profit pressure.According to JPMorgan, despite this outlook, miners are not the primary price determinant. The bank's key indicator is MicroStrategy's "enterprise value/Bitcoin reserve" ratio. This metric, calculated by dividing the sum of debt, preferred stock, and market capitalization by the value of the company's BTC holdings, is currently at 1.13. A ratio above 1 means MicroStrategy will not be forced to sell BTC to meet its debt and dividend obligations, preventing a new sell-off in the market. The report also highlights MicroStrategy's recently established cash reserves of $1.44 billion. This reserve is sufficient to cover the company's dividend and interest payments for up to two years. JPMorgan states that this step makes forced BTC sales unlikely "for the foreseeable future." Analysts believe this reserve serves as a significant buffer for market stability and that the current weakness in Bitcoin may therefore be limited.In addition, MSCI's decision in mid-January is also being closely watched. JPMorgan believes that the possibility of MicroStrategy being removed from the indexes has been largely priced in by the markets, and states that a negative decision would create limited additional pressure. Conversely, it is stated that if the company remains on the indexes, both MSTR shares and Bitcoin could see a strong recovery.Despite all the short-term uncertainty, the bank's long-term model remains optimistic about Bitcoin. JPMorgan's theoretical price target, derived from its volatility-adjusted comparison of BTC to gold, remains at $170,000. Analysts predict that if the market stabilizes, Bitcoin could approach this value within the next 6-12 months. Market data indicates that the BTC price is currently trading around $91,200.
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5 Dec 2025
A Critical Day for Bitcoin and ETH, Worth $4 Billion
Another critical threshold is being passed in the futures and options market on Friday; contracts totaling over $4 billion in value for Bitcoin and Ethereum are expiring. Derivatives volumes have increased significantly in recent weeks, particularly in Binance futures, suggesting the market is preparing for impending volatility. Today's chart reflects both cautious and selective risk appetite.Bitcoin and ETH options expiringAccording to Deribit data, the total notional value of BTC and ETH options expiring today is around $4.07 billion. Bitcoin accounts for $3.4 billion of this. Total open interest stands at 36,906 contracts. The Put/Call ratio for Bitcoin is 0.91, meaning there are slightly more put options than calls in the market, suggesting a balanced, slightly defensive position. The "maximum pain" level for BTC is $91,000; if the price approaches this level, most contracts are expected to expire worthless. Bitcoin is currently trading slightly above this level. There's clearer optimism on the Ethereum side. The notional value of ETH options expiring today is $668.9 million. Open interest stands at 210,304 contracts. The put/call ratio is 0.78, meaning demand for call options on ETH is stronger. The maximum pain point is at $3,050, slightly below the current price. This ratio and price structure suggest a more positive outlook for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin in the short term.Today's expiration represents much smaller volume compared to last week. During the massive event on November 28th, over $15 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expired, meaning the current contract volume is less than a third of that day. This is due to institutional investors increasingly expanding their positions over longer periods. In Bitcoin, in particular, there's a significant accumulation of call options with expiration dates extending into mid-2026. This trend is consistent with institutional views that interest rate cut expectations, ETF demand, and liquidity conditions will be more supportive next year.Derivatives analysis platform Laevitas highlights the steady increase in open interest in recent weeks, highlighting fresh capital inflows into the derivatives market. This suggests investors are preparing for a multi-quarter recovery. As professional movements gain traction, price discovery in the market becomes more systematic.However, the short-term outlook remains mixed. Greeks.live's December 2nd update describes the market as "cautiously optimistic." Analysts say investors are searching for a bottom, but volatile price movements are eroding confidence. The put skew, in particular, remains elevated, meaning the market continues to price in short-term downside risk. Because the sharp moves in February are still fresh in memory, many professionals are avoiding "chasing calls on dips."Amidst this uncertainty, another significant shift is the cooling of volatility. While volatility in Bitcoin has tightened, ETH options have become relatively more attractively priced. This is leading some to turn to Ethereum. Institutional investors are focused on capital preservation and generating sustainable returns rather than seeking quick profits. Deribit also notes that the general trend is toward "controlled and rational strategies rather than chasing 5-10x returns."
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5 Dec 2025
All Eyes on Critical US Inflation Data: What's in Store for Cryptocurrencies?
Today's release of the core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE) data in the US has become the most critical headline that will determine the weekly direction of the crypto market. A higher-than-expected increase in the core PCE, the Fed's most important inflation indicator, could strengthen the case of members advocating for tight monetary policy and dampen risk appetite in the markets. Conversely, a softer data release could push bond yields lower, supporting a short-term recovery in Bitcoin and other major crypto assets.All Eyes on the PCEAccording to market forecasts, core PCE is expected to have increased by 2.9% year-over-year in September. This rate represents the 55th consecutive month above the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation outlook is reinforcing the "hawkish" wing of the committee's call for slower rate cuts. However, despite all the pressure, markets are almost certainly pricing in a 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the December 10th meeting.On the volatility front, there's a surprising calm. According to Volmex data, Bitcoin's one-day implied volatility index (BVIV) is trading at around 36%. This rate suggests the price could move within a normal range of approximately 1.88% over the next 24 hours. In other words, markets are not significantly pricing in panic ahead of critical data.Analysts attribute this to the expectation that the Fed will initiate a rate cut regardless of the data results. The CME FedWatch Tool also supports this; the possibility of a 25bp rate cut appears to be "completed" pricing.The range observed on Bitcoin is also noteworthy. The price has been stuck between the $92,000 and $94,000 range for the past two days. According to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev, a softer PCE data could push the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%, potentially allowing BTC to attempt another break above $94,000. In the opposite scenario, where the data exceeds expectations, the market could return to a sideways-to-conservative mode until the Fed's meeting to clarify its roadmap. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is struggling to hold above $92,000. ING analysts, however, warn that a potential interest rate cut may not be permanent. They believe any short-term pullbacks in interest rates could quickly reverse if the data flow doesn't signal a sustained easing.Volatility is slightly higher on the altcoin front. Ether's one-day implied volatility has risen to 57.23%, indicating a price movement of approximately 3%. For Solana, this figure is 3.86%, and for XRP, it's 4.3%. This suggests that the PCE data could trigger broader price volatility in altcoins.The crypto market's final trading day of the week is entirely focused on the outcome of this data. In addition to showing the Fed’s short-term policy, the PCE figure is seen as the key data that will determine the tight squeeze that Bitcoin is trying to break out of and the short-term price channels in altcoins.
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5 Dec 2025
Ripple CEO Predicts $180,000 Bitcoin
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced one of the most ambitious Bitcoin predictions of recent times on the Binance Blockchain Week stage, stating that BTC could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026. This statement, made during a panel discussion attended by Solana Foundation President Lily Liu and Binance CEO Richard Teng, rekindled institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term outlook. Garlinghouse's strong outlook, Liu's prediction of a price above $100,000, and Teng's cautious optimism combined led the market to see a bullish consensus among major players.Ripple CEO Makes Bitcoin PredictionRipple CEO Brad Garlinghouse shared one of the most ambitious Bitcoin predictions on the Binance Blockchain Week stage. Garlinghouse stated that the BTC price could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026. This statement immediately escalated the tone of the discussion in the room. The panel also included Solana Foundation President Lily Liu and Binance CEO Richard Teng.Garlinghouse stated that Bitcoin's long-term outlook remains strong, with global macroeconomic conditions and increasing institutional interest being key factors driving its price. He believes the volatility Bitcoin faces today is insignificant in the bigger picture; the key determinant is the long-term adoption rate.Binance CEO Richard Teng, who also spoke on the panel, refrained from providing a direct price target. Teng emphasized that he wasn't concerned with short-term fluctuations and that his focus was on the sustainable growth of the Binance ecosystem. He stated, however, that he expects Bitcoin prices to rise above current levels in the coming period. Teng's approach stood out as a more cautious institutional stance at a time when the market is frequently swept up in speculation.Solana Foundation President Lily Liu said there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin will trade above $100,000 in the coming period. According to Liu, the market is now more mature, both in terms of technology and investor profile. This leads to broader participation and stronger support zones during major rallies.All three panelists agreed that Bitcoin remains central to the long-term growth story. Institutional investor flows, the expansion of the ETF market, new regulatory frameworks, and developing infrastructure all make the period 2025 and beyond even more critical for Bitcoin.At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $93,000. Having tested an all-time high above $126,000 two months ago, BTC has been fluctuating within a narrow range in recent weeks. Despite this, the consensus among key market players is that the corrections have not altered the medium- to long-term bullish outlook.Garlinghouse's $180,000 forecast, Teng's cautious optimism, and Liu's expectation of a price above $100,000, combined, present the market with strong optimism for 2026 and beyond. Whether these predictions materialize will depend on the trajectory of institutional demand, liquidity conditions, and regulatory developments.At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is around $93,400.
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4 Dec 2025
Grayscale Expects New High: The Pessimistic Cycle for Bitcoin is Ending
Despite the crypto market's consecutive sell-offs in recent weeks, major analyst firms and industry leaders are more optimistic. Grayscale Research stated in its latest report that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs as early as 2026. BitMine CEO Tom Lee offered a similar assessment, stating that Bitcoin could renew its all-time high by January at the latest.Is the four-year cycle still going?Grayscale's report drew attention by challenging the "four-year cycle" debate that frequently arises in the market. Most crypto investors are accustomed to the idea that Bitcoin follows a roughly four-year peak-and-trough cycle after each halving. According to this perspective, a significant correction and a prolonged recession were expected between 2025 and 2026. However, Grayscale argues that this cycle is no longer working.The company's analysts state that Bitcoin has not experienced a parabolic rally like in past cycles, and therefore, there is no technical pressure for a sharp reversal. The report notes, "Uncertainty remains, but we believe the four-year cycle thesis will not hold true this time. There is a strong possibility that Bitcoin will reach new highs in 2026."The Bitcoin price has been undergoing a highly volatile period in the last two months. From the beginning of October to the end of November, there was a 32% pullback. On Monday, the price briefly dropped to $84,000, but then recovered to the $86,900 range. According to Grayscale, declines of this magnitude are normal movements common in strong bull markets and do not imply a long-term downtrend.The most striking part of the report is the analysis explaining why this cycle differs from previous cycles. Grayscale noted that in periods like 2021 or 2017, prices experienced a steep rise due to the influx of retail investors. Today, the picture has changed. Institutional investor pressure is much more pronounced; Bitcoin ETFs, digital asset treasury accounts, and long-term positions of large funds are driving the market. This structure makes price movements more balanced. Macroeconomic conditions also support Grayscale's optimistic stance. The possibility of US interest rate cuts continuing until 2026 and the convergence of the two parties in Washington on crypto regulations reinforce the company's view that "medium-term winds are blowing in BTC's favor."BitMine CEO Tom Lee further supports this view. In both social media notes and statements on CNBC, he highlighted a significant disconnect between market pricing and on-chain indicators. Lee stated, "The constant decline in prices while increasing wallet numbers, network fees, tokenization volume, and usage data creates an anomaly. Therefore, the risk-return balance for BTC and ETH is very attractive."Lee believes that Bitcoin could reach a new high by January. This prediction has attracted investor attention, particularly given the subdued outlook in recent weeks. Despite short-term fears, the market's fundamental indicators are strengthening; this is a common point emphasized by both Grayscale and Lee.
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2 Dec 2025
Vanguard Opens Doors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP Funds
The long-awaited institutional transformation of the crypto markets has finally arrived. According to reports, Vanguard, one of the largest players in traditional finance, is abandoning its long-standing anti-crypto stance and allowing trading of funds based on digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP on its platform.Vanguard Makes a Crypto MoveVanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager, is making a major shift in its long-standing anti-crypto stance. According to Bloomberg, the company will now allow trading of ETFs and mutual funds "primarily holding cryptocurrencies" on its platform. This decision comes as a result of a significant increase in demand from both individual and institutional investors.Vanguard's move is noteworthy at a time when the boundaries between traditional finance and crypto markets are rapidly blurring. The company made headlines just last year when CEO Salim Ramji stated, "We are not considering launching crypto ETFs." Even as spot Bitcoin ETFs received approval in the US, Vanguard maintained its cautious approach to crypto, refusing to include these products on its platform. However, the landscape has changed. Starting Tuesday, ETFs and mutual funds based on crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP will be available for purchase and sale directly on the Vanguard platform. This move also officially opens the doors to a massive market. Vanguard is a giant that manages over 50 million brokerage accounts and oversees $11 trillion in assets.Andrew Kadjeski, who heads Vanguard's Brokerage and Investments division, commented on this new crypto-focused platform: “Crypto ETFs and mutual funds have been tested during volatile periods and have performed as expected, maintaining liquidity. The operational infrastructure needed to support these products has matured, and investor preferences are evolving.”Analysts say this transformation is inevitable. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and spot Ethereum ETFs in June 2024, the US has witnessed a significant influx of capital into crypto-based exchange-traded products. Even ETFs tracking altcoins like XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Litecoin have emerged. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that more than 100 new crypto ETFs could launch within the next six months.Competitors are following a similar path. Vanguard's largest rival, BlackRock, still holds approximately $70 billion in its IBIT Bitcoin ETF. As crypto funds become one of the fastest-growing categories in the US investment world, it seemed increasingly difficult for Vanguard to stay out of the race.While the new approach has gained widespread support in the crypto space, Vanguard still has no plans to create its own crypto products. Furthermore, funds classified by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as "meme coin-linked" will be excluded from the platform. In other words, the company is implementing a controlled expansion; it's not offering full integration, but rather access within a regulatory framework.
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2 Dec 2025
$1 Billion Inflow into Crypto Funds: Market Breaks Four-Week Pressure
CoinShares' latest weekly flow report showed a significant recovery in institutional demand for cryptoasset funds. According to the report, digital asset investment products saw a total inflow of $1.07 billion last week. This increase indicates a rapid turnaround in investor sentiment following sharp outflows of $5.7 billion in the last four weeks. Expectations for a rate cut, reinforced by statements from FOMC member John Williams emphasizing that monetary policy remains "restrictive," played a critical role in this market recovery.CoinShares data: How much were Bitcoin and altcoin inflows?Volumes remained low due to Thanksgiving. Cryptoasset ETP trading volume hit a record $56 billion the previous week and remained at $24 billion this week. Despite this, the recovery in inflows suggests investors haven't lost their risk appetite as the year-end approaches.The strongest inflow came from the US, which attracted $994 million last week alone. Canada also attracted attention with $97.6 million, while Switzerland closed the week positive with $23.6 million in inflows. There were also countries that moved in the opposite direction; Germany, in particular, distinguished itself with $55.5 million in outflows.Asset-wise, the picture was once again dominated by Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin received $461 million in inflows last week. This trend, when considered alongside the $1.9 million outflow from short Bitcoin products, suggests that investors have reversed their bearish expectations. Ethereum, on the other hand, saw a net inflow of $308 million. The market's two largest assets served as a reminder that institutional demand remained robust in the final quarter of the year. XRP was the star of the week. The asset broke its all-time high with a total inflow of $289 million. Demand for XRP products in the last six weeks equates to 29 percent of the asset's total assets under management. A significant portion of this sharp increase is believed to be attributed to the launch of new XRP ETF products in the US.Cardano, on the other hand, painted a completely different picture. ADA investment products experienced $19.3 million in outflows. This decrease represents approximately 23% of the entity's total assets under management. While small inflows were seen in multi-asset products, Solana also saw a limited but positive trend; SOL funds closed the week with $4.4 million in inflows.The report emphasizes that this sudden recovery after four weeks of weakness signals a renewed risk-taking trend on the institutional side. Strengthening expectations for a rate cut further accentuate the movement in US markets. Large funds appear to have developed a new avenue for expansion in their strategies, particularly as year-end position adjustments approach.It remains to be seen how the FOMC decisions and year-end balance sheet movements to be announced in the coming weeks will shape the flow of money into digital asset funds.
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1 Dec 2025
Bitcoin Drops Below $87,500: What Causes the Drop?
Bitcoin began the new week with a sharp decline. The price's drop below $87,500 isn't a move that can be explained by a single factor; multiple pressures, ranging from macro shocks and seasonal sell-offs to technical weakness and a liquidity squeeze stemming from Japan, have simultaneously come into play. Developments in Japan Impacted the Crypto MarketJapan's 2-year government bond yield rose to 1.01 percent in the morning, reaching a level not seen since 2008. This movement reinforced market expectations that the Bank of Japan was nearing abandonment of its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's statement, "We will assess the appropriateness of an interest rate hike at this month's meeting," abruptly dampened risk appetite.The sharp shift in interest rate expectations accelerated the unraveling of yen carry trades, in particular. The crypto market reacted most quickly when this fund flow, which had supported risk assets throughout the year, reversed. With the yen's recovery in the morning, liquidity rapidly contracted; Bitcoin lost the $90,000 threshold, falling below $87,500. Ethereum followed suit, falling towards the $2,850 level.Market participants, based on Polymarket pricing, see a 50% chance of Japan hiking interest rates in December. This uncertainty is creating a backdrop that could increase volatility across Asia. Meanwhile, expectations for China's upcoming manufacturing data and the Fed's December meeting are among other factors weighing on risk appetite.However, it would be insufficient to explain the decline solely on macro developments. Bitcoin entered its historically weak December with a similar pattern. Year-end tax sales in the US and Europe are putting additional pressure on the market, particularly as funds seeking to write off losses are reducing their BTC positions. According to Coinglass data, November closed with a decline of more than 17%, increasing the likelihood of continued weakness in December, given past cycles. In examples like 2018, 2019, and 2022, a red November was followed by a red December.Leverage has decreasedThere's also an important signal on the liquidation front. The lowest leverage level in recent weeks is being observed; this reduces the "fuel" needed for a strong upward move and allows selling to more easily exert price pressure. The liquidation of over $150 million of long positions on the BTC side alone this morning indicated that the decline was deepening without difficulty.In summary, Bitcoin's sharp decline to the $86,000–$87,000 range was caused by the confluence of both macro shocks originating in Asia and year-end selling pressure. Technical indicators suggest the trend has not yet strengthened; therefore, investors will be watching for both signals from the BOJ and a new catalyst that will allow risk appetite to recover. December is often volatile in the crypto market, and this year looks no different.
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1 Dec 2025
A Critical Day for $16 Billion in BTC and ETH Options
It's one of the busiest days of the year in the crypto derivatives market. According to Deribit data, over $16 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are reaching maturity on October 31, 2025. Both BTC and ETH are experiencing a massive position closure, paving the way for sharp intraday price fluctuations.$100,000 Critical for Bitcoin OptionsMore than 145,000 contracts are expiring on the Bitcoin side with a notional value of approximately $13 billion. The market is trading around $91,000, but the maximum pain level is $100,000. In the options market, the maximum pain level refers to the price range where the greatest investor losses occur at expiration, and prices are frequently observed retreating towards this level. Therefore, upward pressure is likely to be felt as the price approaches expiration. According to Deribit's analyst team, the sharp pullback in recent weeks has significantly reshaped BTC options positions. As Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to the $80,000 range, many investors holding long puts took profits. Despite this, a significant portion of investors remain cautious; put positions held in the $80,000-$85,000 range remain on the table.Another factor closely watched by the market is the large-sized call condor strategy launched for the "year-end bull run." Analysts note that this structure, approximately $6.5 million targeting the $100,000-$106,000-$112,000 range, was the most dominant trade throughout the week. This structure points to the expectation of a strong upward movement in Bitcoin at the end of the year.On the other hand, the persistent use of call overwriting strategies (i.e., investors selling calls at high strike prices against their holdings of BTC) is somewhat dampening the upside potential. This situation has led to a slight softening of implied volatility (IV) and suggests that the market has not yet committed to a one-way trend. On the Ethereum side, 574,000 contracts with a nominal value of approximately $1.7 billion are closing today. ETH is trading around $3,000, with maximum pain at $3,400. The put-call ratio, at 0.48, suggests a call bias, similar to Bitcoin. However, ETH's positioning isn't as aggressive as BTC's; it's more balanced and less bearish.Market volatility is higher for both assets compared to the previous month. Bitcoin's IV average for major futures is around 45%, while Ethereum's is just below 70%. The main factors fueling this volatility are increasing macro uncertainty in the last quarter, the three-month price pressure, and the divergence among investors regarding direction. Analysts reiterate the need for caution in leveraged trading.Today's major expiration close could lead to increased volatility. A price move toward Bitcoin's maximum pain level, or conversely, a sharp increase in volatility, could rapidly alter liquidity conditions for both BTC and ETH for the remainder of the day. In short, the market is experiencing a two-way tension, caught between strong year-end expectations and short-term caution.
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28 Nov 2025
Bitcoin Surpasses $91,000: Fed Cut Expectations on the Agenda
Bitcoin has reversed course after a sharp pullback last week. With buying during the Asian session on Wednesday and Thursday morning, the BTC price managed to hold above the $91,000 level. The 24-hour gain reached 4.5%. Market analysts believe this move is fueled by both a technical reactionary surge and a surge in risk appetite fueled by strengthening macroeconomic expectations. Market data shows that Bitcoin, which fell to $81,000 last week and shook off the market-shattering decline, first recovered to $89,000 and then climbed to $91,700. Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu described this reversal as a "classic oversold reaction," stating that liquidity has improved and risk appetite has revived.On the macro front, all eyes are on December. CME's FedWatch data shows that the probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December meeting has increased to 84.7%. This rate was around 70% last week. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, the market has begun to price in a strong discount. This expectation is creating a liquidity environment that supports both the equity and crypto markets.HashKey Group Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that Bitcoin's rise is "a natural recovery after a sharp decline," rather than a single catalyst. According to Ding, the market structure remains healthy, and long-term fundamentals remain strong.Altcoins are also recoveringNot only BTC but also major altcoins have accompanied the recovery. Ethereum rose 3% to $3,030, while XRP rose 1%. BNB rose 3.9% to near $890, and Solana rose 2.9% to $143. However, weakness persists in some altcoins. For example, Cardano (ADA) has lost 7% of its value in the last seven days, lagging behind the mainstream basket. Meanwhile, perhaps the most striking factor in the market in recent days has been the strong inflows into XRP ETFs. Grayscale's GXRP product attracted $67.4 million, and Franklin Templeton's XRPZ ETF attracted $62.6 million. Total XRP ETF assets exceeded $628 million, with nearly 80 million XRP absorbed in the first 24 hours. This interest even surpassed the first-day performance of the Solana ETF, which launched at the beginning of the year.Statements from some institutional desks, however, maintain the short-term uncertainty. Anthony Pompliano stated that as the year-end approaches, some institutional investors are reducing their Bitcoin positions due to risk management related to the bonus period. CryptoQuant, on the other hand, notes that BTC's risk-return ratio has reached its most attractive level since mid-2023, a signal that historically points to a new period of accumulation.The rise in the long-short ratio of large accounts on Binance to 3.8 suggests that leveraged investors are betting on a return. However, Citi analysts predict that Bitcoin will consolidate in the $82,000–$90,000 range until the first half of 2026.
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27 Nov 2025
Texas Takes First Step Towards Bitcoin Reserve: Purchase of $5 Million ETF
Texas has taken a significant step toward becoming the first state in the US to begin accumulating Bitcoin directly with government funds. State officials confirmed a $5 million purchase from IBIT, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. While this move doesn't yet directly translate to BTC accumulation, it is considered a transitional phase for the upcoming "Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve."Texas allocated $10 million to establish this reserve at the beginning of the year and began collecting comprehensive information from the industry in September. The state's information request process was completed in recent weeks. Crypto companies submitted proposals guiding Texas on a range of issues, from custodial services to security standards. These proposals will be used to establish the state's long-term Bitcoin accumulation model.Last week's $5 million ETF purchase is also part of this preparation. A spokesperson for the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts said the ETF is only a "temporary placeholder" and that actual Bitcoin purchases will begin once a formal custodial agreement is signed. The state's next step is to move to the formal proposal process for selecting a custodian. This move opens the door to a new era in the race to establish Bitcoin reserves with public resources in the US. Previously, some states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, invested in Bitcoin ETFs through their state pension funds. However, these were investments made for individual retirement funds; accumulating BTC in the state treasury is a different matter.New Hampshire and Arizona Are NextFollowing Texas, New Hampshire and Arizona are also running their own reserve projects. New Hampshire was the first state in the country to enact a Bitcoin reserve law, but no actual purchase has yet been made. Last week, however, the approval of $100 million in Bitcoin bonds was notable. Arizona has taken legal steps to direct the accumulated unowned crypto assets into a reserve fund.One of the most active figures behind the reserve projects is Dennis Porter, CEO of the Satoshi Action Fund. Porter stated that they have submitted draft laws to states and prefer a gradual progress. He believes the recent decline in the crypto market will not disrupt these initiatives because the downturn is not sufficient to attract the attention of lawmakers. Texas Blockchain Council President Lee Bratcher described the state's latest move as "buying the bottom." He described Texas's purchase of a Bitcoin ETF at $87,000 as "successful timing." 5-day Bitcoin graph Once the process is complete in Texas, it will be the first time in US history that a state treasury has directly begun holding Bitcoin. This step is expected to serve as an example for other states. Crypto reserve initiatives are expected to accelerate nationwide in the early months of 2025, when the new legislative session begins.
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26 Nov 2025