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Arizona has taken a significant step towards integrating digital assets into the public treasury. The Arizona Senate Finance Committee approved Bill SB1649, known as the "Digital Asset Reserve Fund Bill," by a 4-2 vote, moving it to the next stage. The bill will now go to the Senate Rules Committee and continue its legislative process.SB1649 envisions the establishment of a "Digital Asset Strategic Reserve Fund" to be managed by the state. This fund aims to hold certain crypto assets that come into the possession of Arizona authorities under a structured reserve system. Specifically, it is planned that digital assets that are seized, confiscated, or voluntarily transferred to the state will be collected under this new fund.The bill provides a clear framework for how digital assets will be stored and managed under state control. In this respect, Arizona is working on a model that shows that crypto assets can be addressed not only from the perspective of the private sector or individual investors, but also from a public finance perspective. XRP Explicitly Defined as a Reserve AssetOne of the most striking elements of SB1649 is the explicit inclusion of XRP among the eligible assets for the reserve. The bill clearly states that XRP and other eligible digital instruments can be held within the reserve in cases of state seizure or voluntary takeover.This explicit reference has symbolic significance in the crypto market, particularly for XRP. The mention of a specific token by name in a state-level legal document is considered a significant sign of institutional and public acceptance of digital assets.However, the bill focuses on how to manage assets already under state control, rather than initiating a new investment program. In other words, it aims not for Arizona to directly purchase crypto from the market, but rather to hold existing and future digital assets within an institutional framework.Custody and Management Framework DefinedAccording to the bill, the management of the reserve fund will be given to the Arizona State Treasurer. The Treasurer will be responsible for the secure custody of digital assets and the management of the portfolio. However, this authority is not unlimited; There is a requirement to comply with a defined custody plan and regulated oversight solutions. The text states that tools such as regulated custody services and exchange-traded products can be used. Thus, the aim is to ensure the security of digital assets through regulated solutions. Not leaving control entirely to private platforms is a key element in terms of protecting public oversight.The bill does not directly replace Arizona's existing "Revised Uniform Fiduciary Access to Digital Assets Act." Instead, it establishes a complementary structure for how digital assets held by public institutions will be stored.The process will continue in the Senate and the House of RepresentativesSB1649, which passed the Finance Committee with a 4-2 vote, will now be considered in the Senate plenary session. If it receives majority support there, it will be sent to the Arizona House of Representatives. Amendments to the bill may be proposed during the House stage.If the bill is enacted in its current form, Arizona could become one of the first US states to create a special reserve structure for seized or acquired crypto assets. The explicit designation of XRP as a reserve asset is seen as a development that could open this model up to debate on a national scale.
Owning a home without selling crypto assets is no longer just a theoretical idea. Milo, a US-based crypto-backed mortgage company, announced it has disbursed over $100 million in home loans to date, with its largest transaction being a single $12 million crypto mortgage agreement. The company's model is simple but unconventional. Investors who own Bitcoin or Ethereum can obtain loans of up to $25 million by using their digital assets as collateral without selling them. This eliminates the need for a down payment and avoids the tax burden that could arise from selling assets. According to Milo's founder, Josip Rupena, the target audience is quite clear. These are individuals who bought Bitcoin about 10 years ago on a friend's recommendation and held onto their assets despite sharp fluctuations; today, they hold a significant portion of their net worth in crypto assets. These individuals are typically between 30 and 55 years old, have a regular income and a retirement account, but their annual income is not sufficient to purchase their desired home. Rupena notes that a typical transaction is for a home worth approximately $1.5 million. For example, consider an investor who earns $100,000 annually but has between $3 and $7 million in crypto assets. If this investor's portfolio consisted of Apple shares, it might be easier for them to obtain a loan by using collateral within the traditional financial system. However, the lack of widespread acceptance of crypto assets and concerns about volatility make these kinds of specialized financing solutions necessary.Milo requires crypto collateral up to 100% of the property's value. This collateral can be held in qualified custodians such as Coinbase or BitGo. A self-custody option is also available for users who wish; that is, investors can keep complete control of their assets.Interest rates start at 8.25%, and it can be used for purposes other than housingLoans are offered with interest rates starting at 8.25%. Moreover, its use is not limited only to housing purchases. Financing can also be provided for land acquisition, home renovations, or business investments using the same model.One of the biggest risks in the crypto loan market is the "margin call" mechanism. In traditional crypto-backed loans, additional collateral can be called when the asset price falls by 20–25%. Milo, however, says he has designed a more conservative structure. The product is designed to tolerate value losses of up to 65%. According to Rupena, in a sharp decline scenario, instead of completely liquidating the loan, the company restructures the loan amount by reducing the risk level. The collateral ratio is reduced from 100% to the 65–70% range, and the customer does not lose their home as long as they continue making payments. This approach is based on the claim, "You don't lose your house just because Bitcoin falls." The company has completed many transactions so far, particularly in Miami and throughout Florida. It is also active in Texas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, and Arizona. The record-breaking $12 million transaction mentioned in the press release was completed in Tennessee. Milo's product is also supported by leading figures in the industry. Adam Back, a Bitcoin pioneer and CEO of Blockstream, describes this model as "a game-changer in the Bitcoin-based lending space." According to Back, investors have the opportunity to accumulate equity in real estate without liquidating their long-term Bitcoin positions. Given the volatile nature of the crypto market, this model continues to carry risks.
Strategy, which has placed Bitcoin at the center of its balance sheet, continues its purchases without slowing down. Between February 9th and 16th, the company bought another 2,486 BTC at an average price of $67,710, spending approximately $168.4 million on this transaction. This brings its total Bitcoin holdings to 717,131 BTC.With this latest purchase, the total value of the Bitcoins held by the company has reached approximately $48.8 billion. According to data shared by Strategy's co-founder and chairman of the board, Michael Saylor, the company has built this position by spending a total of $54.5 billion to date at an average cost of $76,027. Considering current prices, there is an unrealized loss of approximately $5.7 billion on the balance sheet.The more than 717,000 BTC held by Strategy represents more than 3.4% of Bitcoin's 21 million supply limit. This makes the company one of the largest institutional Bitcoin investors globally. The company's strategy is clear: to grow its position through regular and scalable purchases despite market fluctuations. Financing through the sale of shares and preferred sharesRecent purchases were financed through sales of the company's Class A common stock, MSTR, and various preferred share programs. Approximately 660,000 MSTR shares were sold during the relevant period, generating $90.5 million in revenue. Additionally, 785,354 STRC preferred shares were sold, raising approximately $78.4 million. The company has the capacity to issue billions of dollars in additional shares under its ongoing "at-the-market" programs. In addition to preferred share programs with different characteristics such as STRK, STRC, STRF, and STRD, the company aims for a total capital increase and convertible debt of $84 billion by 2027 under the "42/42" plan. This structure aims to continue Bitcoin purchases in a long-term and gradual manner.STRD stands out as the product with the highest risk-return profile, offering a 10% non-cumulative dividend. STRK, with its convertible structure, allows for conversion to shares while providing an 8% dividend. STRF offers a more conservative option with cumulative dividends. STRC, on the other hand, appeals to a different investor base with its variable rate and monthly dividend payments. “99>98” message and new buy signalMichael Saylor, before the latest purchase, shared “99>98” on his social media account, indicating that the new purchase would be larger than the previous one. Indeed, the company had purchased 1,142 BTC a week earlier at an average price of $78,815. Thus, Strategy significantly increased its total position with two separate transactions in a short period. The company management reiterated its statement from the last balance sheet meeting, arguing that they have the asset structure to cover their debts even if the Bitcoin price falls to $8,000. Saylor stated that they plan to convert convertible debt into equity within the next three to six years.Analyst Commentary and Market PerformanceBernstein analysts emphasize that despite the company's use of leverage, it has structured its debt in a long-term and cautious manner. The absence of a large debt maturity until 2028 and the existence of cash reserves to cover dividend payments are cited as factors limiting risks. TD Cowen analysts, on the other hand, state that Strategy is strongly positioned to participate in a possible market recovery.On the other hand, there has been a significant pullback in the company's shares compared to the peaks in the summer of 2025. Strategy's market value/net asset value ratio is at 0.91; this shows that the company's market value is trading below the total value of its Bitcoin holdings. Despite this, the stock rose 16.5 percent last week, closing at $133.88. The increase in Bitcoin price during the same period was limited to 0.5 percent.
Recent data shared by the cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant reveals a striking picture in the Bitcoin market. According to on-chain metrics, Bitcoin recorded a realized loss of $2.3 billion on average over 7 days. This level indicates a capitulation on a scale similar to major breaking periods such as the sharp declines in 2021 and the FTX and Terraform Labs-related crash in 2022.Short-term investors are selling at a loss, long-term investors are waitingThe realized loss (Net Realized Profit/Loss - NRPL) metric measures whether investors have locked in profit or loss when moving or selling Bitcoin on-chain. A sharply negative figure indicates that a significant amount of BTC changed hands below the purchase price. The $2.3 billion figure reveals that billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin were sold at a loss, indicating serious panic among short-term investors. According to the data, the main source of selling pressure was short-term investors. In the last few months, this group, which bought at higher levels, is closing its positions at a loss as the price pulls back. This behavior is frequently seen during periods of sharp correction. In contrast, long-term investors largely maintain their positions and do not significantly contribute to the increase in losses.On-chain analytics company Glassnode states that the inability to recover significant cost-below levels makes the market fragile. As the price remains below the average cost of investor groups, more supply enters the loss zone; this increases the risk of additional selling pressure in new declines. Therefore, it is not enough to look only at the amount of loss; it is also critically important to know which investor group is at which cost level.It is stated that the daily NRPL data has fallen to approximately minus $2 billion on some days. This magnitude is comparable to the Luna crash of 2022. However, there is a significant difference between the current situation and that period. In 2022, prices fell below $20,000 and a systemic collapse occurred. Today, similar losses are occurring at much higher price levels. This situation indicates that the market structure and investor composition have changed compared to the past.The increase in loss-making sales by short-term investors, while long-term investors remain relatively calm, points to a "weak hands elimination" process in the market. Historically, such periods of intense losses are often seen near local lows. Indeed, after the recent sharp sell-off, the Bitcoin price reacted from around $60,000 to over $70,000. However, such jumps do not always signify a permanent trend reversal; temporary relief rallies can also occur within a broader downtrend. In the coming period, whether the price can regain the cost basis of short-term investors will be decisive. A sustained settlement above these levels could reduce the pressure of loss-making sales and initiate a stabilization process in the market. Otherwise, negative NRPL data may continue for some time, and volatility may remain high.
The outflow from cryptocurrency investment products has continued for a fourth week. According to CoinShares' weekly report, there was a net outflow of $173 million from digital asset funds last week. This brings the total outflow over the past four weeks to $3.74 billion. Although the pace has slowed after the sharp sell-off seen at the beginning of the month, the weakness in fund flows has not yet ended. The picture was more optimistic in the early days of the week. A total of $575 million in inflows was recorded on Monday and Tuesday. However, a strong outflow of $853 million followed. This wave is considered to be influenced by the weakness in prices. On the last trading day of the week, a limited recovery of $105 million was seen after the lower-than-expected US inflation data. Nevertheless, the overall weekly picture remained negative. There is also a noticeable decrease in trading volumes. The total volume in exchange-traded products (ETPs) fell to $27 billion. The previous week, a record high of $63 billion was reached. This sharp drop in volume indicates that speculative appetite has weakened and investors have adopted a cautious stance. Sharp Outflow in the US, Selective Buying Wave in EuropeThe regional distribution points to a significant divergence. US-based products saw a weekly outflow of $403 million. In contrast, Europe and Canada experienced a net inflow of $230 million. Germany led with an inflow of $114.8 million, followed by Canada with $46.3 million and Switzerland with $36.8 million. While risk aversion continues in the US, a selective buying appetite is noticeable in Europe.Looking at assets, the largest outflow was seen in Bitcoin funds. $133.3 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin investment products. Interestingly, there was also a total outflow of $15.4 million in short-Bitcoin products in the last two weeks. CoinShares notes that such simultaneous outflows have historically been seen near market lows. The picture is also weak on the Ethereum side. There was a weekly outflow of $85.1 million from Ethereum funds. Thus, the total outflow from Ethereum products since the beginning of the year has reached $458 million. Multi-asset funds also experienced a limited withdrawal of $14.6 million. However, some altcoins continue to outperform. XRP funds attracted $33.4 million in inflows last week. Solana funds recorded a net inflow of $31 million. Chainlink also showed a positive inflow of $1.1 million. This picture shows that investors are avoiding widespread risk-taking while preferring to increase positions in specific projects.The total assets under management is at $132.9 billion. Bitcoin products are clearly leading with $105.5 billion in AUM. Ethereum products have approximately $15.8 billion in size. In summary, while selling pressure in crypto fund flows has slowed, it has not completely disappeared. While outflows from the US are dragging down the global picture, inflows from Europe and Canada are playing a balancing role. While a cautious atmosphere persists in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the relatively strong flows in altcoins like XRP and Solana reveal the presence of selective risk appetite in the market. Macroeconomic data and price movements in the coming weeks will determine the direction these balances will take.
Remarkable data regarding the size of the cryptocurrency market in Russia has been made public. It was announced that the country's daily cryptocurrency transaction volume has reached 50 billion rubles, or approximately $650 million; and the total annual volume exceeds 10 trillion rubles. This represents a massive economic activity of roughly $130.5 billion. Attention is now focused on the spring periodThese figures were presented by Russian Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov at the Alfa Talk conference. Chebeskov pointed out that transactions of this magnitude largely take place outside the regulation sphere, emphasizing that the current situation remains outside the direct oversight of public authorities. According to officials, this volume, exceeding 10 trillion rubles annually, operates outside the framework of official regulation. This situation has prompted the government and the Central Bank of Russia to prepare comprehensive regulations to legalize the cryptocurrency market. The goal is to pass a new cryptocurrency law through the State Duma in the spring.Central Bank Deputy Governor Vladimir Chistyukhin stated that both the government and the Central Bank expect the draft law on the cryptocurrency market to be adopted during the spring session. The prepared framework will open the door for licensed financial infrastructure to enter the crypto asset space.In this context, exchanges and brokerage firms that are already operating with licenses will be able to offer crypto services. Crypto trading, including spot transactions, will be brought to a legal basis. A special licensing requirement will be introduced, especially for cryptocurrency exchanges; sanctions are planned for unlicensed intermediaries.Moscow Exchange (MOEX), one of Russia's largest financial infrastructure institutions, has already started offering crypto-related products. The exchange lists cash-settled futures contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is planned to add Solana, XRP, and TRX futures in the coming period. If the new regulation comes into force, MOEX and brokerage firms will be able to operate directly in the spot crypto market.According to the draft regulation, both qualified and unqualified investors will be able to participate in crypto transactions; however, certain limitations are foreseen for unqualified investors. This approach aims to offer a balanced model that increases investor protection while not completely closing the market. According to the Russian Central Bank's financial stability report, by mid-2025, the total assets held by Russian users on global cryptocurrency exchanges reached 933 billion rubles, or approximately $11.9 billion. The majority of these platforms are not regulated within Russia. Sergey Shvetsov, head of the MOEX Supervisory Board, states that Russian investors pay approximately $15 billion in commissions annually to global cryptocurrency platforms. It is estimated that the total annual commission revenue from cryptocurrency transactions by cryptocurrency exchanges and traditional exchanges globally is around $50 billion, with approximately one-third of this potentially originating from Russia. Data from the international blockchain analytics company Chainalysis also reveals that Russia is the largest cryptocurrency market in Europe. Between July 2024 and June 2025, $376.3 billion in cryptocurrency flowed into Russia. During the same period, the United Kingdom ranked second with a volume of $273.2 billion. Germany and Ukraine were other European countries that received over $200 billion in cryptocurrency inflows. All this data shows that the cryptocurrency market in Russia has reached a size that can no longer be ignored. The government's goal is to bring this massive volume of transactions operating in the grey area under control, broaden the tax base, and make local financial institutions competitive with global platforms. The law, expected to be enacted in the spring, could mark the beginning of a new era in Russia's crypto policy.
Harvard Management Company (HMC), which manages Harvard University's endowment fund exceeding $50 billion, revealed a significant change in its crypto asset strategy in its fourth-quarter 2025 SEC filing. The institution significantly reduced its Bitcoin ETF position while investing in an Ethereum ETF for the first time.Bitcoin ETF Position Decreased by 21%According to the 13F report submitted to the SEC, HMC reduced its stake in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) fund, issued by BlackRock, by more than 21% compared to the previous quarter. The fund, which held 6.81 million shares at the end of the third quarter, reduced this amount to 5.35 million shares at the end of the fourth quarter. The market value of this position as of December 31 was recorded as $265.8 million. In the previous quarter, the value of the IBIT position was $442.8 million. Both the decrease in the number of shares and the pullback in Bitcoin price contributed to the overall decrease in value. Despite this, Bitcoin remained Harvard's largest publicly declared single investment. A new chapter opened on the Ethereum side. HMC purchased 3.87 million shares of the iShares Ethereum Trust (IETH) fund, also issued by BlackRock. The amount paid for this investment was announced as $86.8 million. Thus, the Harvard foundation fund took a position in an Ethereum-based exchange-traded fund for the first time. As a result of these transactions, Harvard's total cryptocurrency exposure through Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reached $352.6 million. This shows that the university has not completely abandoned digital assets, but has adjusted its portfolio allocation. The quarter in question was quite volatile for the crypto markets. After peaking at approximately $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sharp pullback towards the end of the year, falling to $88,429 on December 31st. Ethereum, meanwhile, lost approximately 28% of its value during the same period. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $68,600 and Ethereum around $1,900.Despite the reduction in Bitcoin positions, Harvard's $265.8 million investment in IBIT still surpasses its holdings in tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. This indicates that the university's appetite for digital assets remains strong.On the other hand, Harvard's crypto strategy has sparked debate in academic circles. Andrew F. Siegel, a retired finance professor from the University of Washington, described the Bitcoin investment as "risky," pointing to its approximately 22.8% decline in value since the beginning of the year. Siegel argued that Bitcoin's risk profile stems partly from its "lack of intrinsic value."Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, a finance professor from UCLA, stated that the addition of an Ethereum position has increased his reservations about digital assets. Subrahmanyam stated that he views cryptocurrencies as an unproven asset class with an as-yet-unclear valuation methodology, and that his doubts about Harvard's previous Bitcoin investment have been strengthened by recent performance.
Cryptocurrency markets started the week with sharp sell-offs. As investors avoided risk ahead of a busy macroeconomic data calendar later in the week, widespread declines were observed, particularly in the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $68,400, having lost approximately 3% of its value in the last 24 hours. The overall market picture was even weaker. Losses in large-volume altcoins like XRP, Ethereum, and Dogecoin were even greater than Bitcoin's. 85 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization experienced declines, with privacy-focused projects Monero and Zcash falling by 10% and 8% respectively. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 2.7% in January to 2.4% year-on-year. This data, indicating a gradual slowdown in inflation, strengthened expectations that the Fed could make at least two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year. Indeed, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.05%, its lowest level since early December.Following the inflation data, Bitcoin rose from $66,800 to over $70,000 over the weekend. However, this level could not be sustained, and the price retreated back to the $68,000 range. This shows that the attempts at upward movement in the market have not yet found strong demand support.What do the experts say?According to Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the India-based cryptocurrency exchange Giottus, selective demand is emerging in the market. Subburaj stated that risk appetite remains limited and macroeconomic uncertainties are pushing investors to be cautious. He noted that the trend of reducing leverage continues in derivative markets, with investors first shrinking their positions and then searching for direction. The inability of rallies to be sustainable and the fact that declines are only met with limited buying at significant support levels supports this cautious atmosphere.The weak market outlook is not limited to short-term price movements. Analysis companies point out that Bitcoin has lost momentum since mid-2025 and that the bearish trend is gaining strength in technical indicators. In particular, the weakening momentum and decrease in volume make it difficult for upward attempts to be sustainable.A more cautious picture was painted in the latest assessment shared by Matrixport. The company stated that on-chain data shows that short-term investors are significantly in losses, which could create additional selling pressure in the market. It also noted an increase in large wallet activity, with some whales positioning themselves on the short side for profit realization or risk reduction.The decline in trading volumes is also noteworthy. According to analysts, the price pressure concentrated around the $68,000 range is raising concerns that a strong bottom has not yet formed. It is emphasized that downward breaks could be sharper in an environment of weak liquidity, therefore investors continue to position themselves cautiously.In the coming days, eyes will be on the Fed's January meeting minutes and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors as an indicator of inflation. Nexo analyst Dessislava Laneva emphasized that the PCE data, in particular, will be decisive in determining whether price pressures are truly weakening. Monthly momentum and annual trend could provide new signals regarding the direction of monetary policy.Yen movement could give a critical signal for BitcoinThere are also noteworthy developments in traditional markets. Mark Nash from Jupiter Asset Management, who has long been known to hold a negative position against the Japanese yen, recently changed his view and predicted that the yen could strengthen. Nash expects a strengthening of around 8-9 percent, especially against the Swiss franc. The record-high positive correlation between the Japanese yen and BTC in recent months makes a potential strengthening of the yen a significant catalyst for the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, not only US data but also movements in currency markets could be decisive in determining Bitcoin's direction. In short, despite the slowdown in inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts, a cautious atmosphere persists in the cryptocurrency market.
While global markets continue to search for direction, macroeconomic data is further complicating the process. The latest inflation data released in the US added to this uncertain picture, reshaping pricing across a wide range of markets, from stocks and bonds to commodities and cryptocurrencies.US Inflation Data ReleasedUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January came in slightly below expectations. Annual CPI was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5%, while the monthly increase was 0.2%. On the core CPI side, the annual rate came in at 2.5%, in line with expectations, while the monthly increase was 0.3%. In particular, the fact that core inflation fell to its lowest level since March 2021 brought the possibility of interest rate cuts back to the forefront in the markets.On the other hand, the previously released non-farm payroll data in the US came in above expectations, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. The concentration of job growth primarily in the healthcare sector and the limited recovery in manufacturing have not completely eliminated questions about the quality of economic growth. This situation has led to a cautious stance regarding expectations for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path.Looking at pricing in money markets, the expectation that the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged in March remains strong. The probability of a possible rate cut in June has decreased somewhat compared to previous weeks. Analysts state that despite the slowdown in inflation data, the Fed may not act hastily, and that developments in the labor market will be closely monitored.As a result of these developments, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.09%, testing its lowest level in recent weeks. The dollar index remained relatively stable around 96.9. Driven by safe-haven demand, the price of gold recovered from the previous day's sharp drop to $4,965 per ounce, while silver also recouped some of its losses. On the technology stock side, fragility was noticeable. The reported delay in Apple's Siri update and accounting allegations concerning Meta increased selling pressure in the technology sector, already overshadowed by "high valuation" discussions. Apple shares closed the day down nearly 5%, while leading companies such as Meta, Nvidia, and Palantir also saw losses. These developments led to significant declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.How did the cryptocurrency markets react?The cryptocurrency market also felt the effects of this global volatility. Bitcoin (BTC), which had stabilized around $67,000, rose to $67,700 shortly before the data release. Immediately after the data was released, it fell back to $66,000. While the lower-than-expected inflation data supported risk appetite in the short term, investors' cautious stance caused volatility to continue.
Attention in the crypto derivatives markets is focused today on the large options expiry on Deribit. Approximately $3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expire at 11:00 AM Turkish time (08:00 UTC), raising expectations of short-term volatility in the market.Critical Threshold After ExpirationAccording to data, approximately $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and over $400 million worth of Ethereum options are expiring today. Closings of this magnitude can create short-term fluctuations in the spot market, especially when prices are near certain strike levels. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,372, with its maximum pain point around $74,000. The total open interest exceeds $2.53 billion. On the Ethereum side, the price is near $1,950; with approximately $425 million in open interest, the maximum pain level is $2,100. The maximum pain level refers to the price point where the greatest number of option contracts expire worthless. Theoretically, this level represents the area where option sellers gain the most advantage. The market doesn't always have to go to this point; however, due to dense clustering of open positions, hedging transactions, and market makers' gamma positions, prices may be "pulled" towards these areas.The sharp sell-off in the last week and the rapid drop below $70,000 led to significant liquidations in the derivatives market. This movement sharply increased demand, especially for put options. Risk reversal (RR) indicators are still significantly in negative territory. The fact that the 1-week and 1-month 25-delta risk reversal values remain at negative levels shows that investors' demand for downside protection continues.The risk reversal metric sheds light on market sentiment by measuring the premium difference between call and put options. Negative values indicate that investors are paying higher premiums to protect against declines and are pricing in downside risks. According to Greeks.live analysts, over $1 billion worth of put options were traded on Bitcoin today, representing 37% of the total volume. It's noteworthy that a large portion of these positions are concentrated in the out-of-the-money range of $60,000-$65,000. This suggests that institutional players, in particular, remain cautious regarding the medium term. However, with volatility receding from panic levels in recent days, some investors are starting to turn to call options again. This indicates a fragile balance in the market. On one hand, there is continued demand for downward hedging, while on the other, expectations of a short-term recovery are gaining strength.Large option expiry dates generally open the door to two different scenarios. In the first scenario, hedging pressure decreases with the closing of contracts, and the market may experience temporary relief. In the second scenario, due to the clustering of large open positions, prices may exhibit sharp movements towards critical levels.The current prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are relatively close to their maximum pain levels. This increases the likelihood of intraday price “pinning,” sudden increases in volatility, and liquidity-driven movements. However, macroeconomic flows, spot demand, and overall risk appetite will continue to be decisive in determining the post-expiration direction.In conclusion, today’s approximately $3 billion in options expiring represents a short-term stress test in the market. Derivative investors, still remaining defensive after the liquidation shock, have not yet reached a clear consensus on the direction. Therefore, it will not be surprising to see sharp and rapid fluctuations in intraday price movements.
Assessments from two global banks in the cryptocurrency market indicate a cautious outlook in the short term, while optimism remains in the long term. US financial giant JPMorgan lowered its estimate for Bitcoin's production cost, while British banking group Standard Chartered revised its price expectations. According to JPMorgan analysts, the production cost, which historically served as a "soft support level" for Bitcoin, has fallen from $90,000 at the beginning of 2026 to $77,000. This decline was influenced by a decrease in hashrate, which represents the network's total processing power, and a drop in mining difficulty. The bank emphasized that the recent decline is the sharpest difficulty drop since China's mining ban in 2021. The cumulative decrease in mining difficulty since the beginning of the year has reached approximately 15 percent. Mining difficulty on the Bitcoin network is adjusted approximately every two weeks, aiming to keep the block time stable at an average of 10 minutes. When the hashrate drops, the system automatically lowers the difficulty. According to JPMorgan, this situation is leading to the exit of high-cost miners from the market and allowing more efficient players to gain market share.Bank analysts pointed out that there are two main reasons for the decrease in production costs. First, the decline in Bitcoin price made operations unprofitable for miners with high energy costs or those using outdated equipment. Some of these companies were forced to shut down their machines. Second, severe winter storms in the US, particularly in Texas, caused large mining facilities to temporarily cease operations.JPMorgan notes that historically, sharp drops in mining difficulty signal a "capture" period. During such periods, high-cost miners may sell their Bitcoins to cover operating expenses, reduce debt, or shift to different areas such as artificial intelligence. This selling pressure has increased the downward pressure on prices since the beginning of the year. However, the bank believes that the picture has become more balanced after inefficient players exited the market. Indeed, analysts state that signs of a recovery in hashrate are being seen, and this could push production costs up again in the next difficulty adjustment. JPMorgan maintains its positive outlook for the crypto markets for the whole of 2026. The bank cites increased institutional investor inflows and clarification of the regulatory framework in the US as potential catalysts. It also reiterated its long-term target of $266,000 for Bitcoin. Standard Chartered also shared its Bitcoin and Ethereum forecastOn the other hand, a more cautious short-term outlook emerges from Standard Chartered. The bank's head of crypto assets, Geoff Kendrick, stated that "captivation selling" may continue in the coming months. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400. The analyst also drew attention to outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick emphasized that the amount of assets held in ETFs has decreased by approximately 100,000 BTC since the peak in October, noting that the average purchase price was around $90,000, meaning many investors have incurred significant losses on paper. On the macroeconomic front, the postponement of interest rate cut expectations to June is limiting risk appetite. Despite this, Standard Chartered remains optimistic in the long term. The bank expects a recovery towards the end of 2026 and predicts that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 again. The $4,000 target for Ethereum remains unchanged, although a downward revision has been made compared to previous estimates. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading around $67,000.
US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced a net loss of $667 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. This ended the company's eight-quarter winning streak. The financial results coincided with a period of sharp price fluctuations in the crypto market.Coinbase Releases Financial ResultsAccording to the financial results released by the company on Thursday, earnings per share were 66 cents. Analyst expectations were at 92 cents, meaning Coinbase fell 26 cents short of expectations. A similar picture emerged in terms of net income. The company's total net income decreased by 21.5 percent year-on-year to $1.78 billion. Market expectations were at $1.85 billion.Looking at revenue items, the sharp decline in transaction revenue was noteworthy. Transaction-based revenue decreased by approximately 37 percent year-on-year to $982.7 million. In contrast, subscription and service revenue increased by over 13 percent to $727.4 million. Coinbase is known to have last reported a loss in the third quarter of 2023. The loss in the last quarter of 2025 mirrored the general decline in the cryptocurrency market. After rising above $126,000 at the beginning of October, Bitcoin lost approximately 30% of its value by the end of the year, falling below $88,500. The decline continued in the first weeks of 2026; Bitcoin fell by over 25% since the beginning of the year, dropping to the $65,000 range. Despite this, the market reaction remained limited. Coinbase shares (COIN) rose 2.9% to $145.18 in post-earnings trading. The stock had closed the regular session down 7.9% at $141.10. The company also shared its expectations for the first quarter of 2026. It was announced that as of February 10th, transaction revenue reached $420 million. However, subscription and service revenues are projected to decline from $727.4 million to a range of $550 to $630 million.Coinbase stated that it demonstrated a “strong” operational and financial performance throughout 2025. The company’s full-year revenue increased by 9.4 percent compared to 2024, reaching $6.88 billion. It was also stated that more than 12 percent of the world’s crypto assets were held on Coinbase in 2025.Bitcoin purchases continueIn addition to the financial results, the company’s crypto asset position on its balance sheet also attracted attention. In its 8-K report submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Coinbase announced that it increased its Bitcoin position by $39 million in the last quarter of 2025 through regular weekly purchases. These purchases show that Bitcoin continues to be seen as a long-term balance sheet asset despite market fluctuations. As of December 31, 2025, the fair market value of crypto assets held by the company for its own investments was recorded at $2 billion. The fair value of crypto assets held as collateral was announced as $823 million.The weekly regular purchase strategy is based on a method known in the markets as the "average cost" approach. This method aims to reduce the impact of price volatility and to create a long-term position at a more balanced cost.Coinbase management plans to keep technology, sales, and marketing expenses relatively stable throughout the year compared to the fourth quarter. The company's chief financial officer, Aleshia Haas, stated that they will be flexible according to opportunities throughout the year and will remain cautious in expense management.
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance has surpassed the $1 billion mark in its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU), created to protect user assets. With its latest purchase of 4,545 BTC, the exchange has increased its total Bitcoin holdings to 15,000 BTC. This places Binance in the top 10 among institutional Bitcoin holders, surpassing Coinbase, which holds 14,548 BTC. According to Arkham data, the latest SAFU purchase was worth approximately $304 million. With this move, Binance completed its previously announced plan to convert its $1 billion stablecoin reserve to Bitcoin in less than two weeks. The average cost per coin was approximately $67,000.Rapid Transition from Stablecoin to BitcoinThe exchange announced on January 30, 2026, that it would convert its $1 billion stablecoin reserve in the user protection fund to Bitcoin within a 30-day timeframe. However, Binance, acting much faster than planned, completed the purchases in less than two weeks. In a statement, the company emphasized that with the complete conversion of the SAFU fund to Bitcoin, BTC is now seen as a long-term reserve asset. It was also stated that if the fund's value falls below $800 million in case of high volatility, a rebalancing operation will be carried out.The phased purchase strategy attracted attentionBinance's purchase process was not carried out all at once, but in different tranches. In the first stage, approximately $100 million was spent on 1,315 BTC; this was followed by a second purchase of similar size. During the process, transactions of $250 million for 3,600 BTC, $300 million for 4,225 BTC, and finally approximately $300 million for 4,545 BTC were made.The final purchase, at $66,006, was recorded as the lowest price among the transactions. This shows that the exchange is taking advantage of market pullbacks. Indeed, when the plan was announced, Bitcoin was trading around $77,000; despite the decline in the following weeks, Binance continued its purchases. The move came amidst market fearBitcoin's brief drop below $60,000 severely impacted investor sentiment. According to market data, the fear and greed index hit historical lows. It was reported that large investors, described as "smart money," also took net short positions in futures, exhibiting a cautious outlook, particularly on the Bitcoin side. In contrast, Binance's conversion of its SAFU fund entirely into Bitcoin is interpreted as a long-term message of confidence. The on-chain analytics platform Glassnode stated that approximately 16% of the supply, equivalent to the market capitalization, was at a loss during the recent correction, the highest "pain threshold" seen since the Terra crash in 2022. However, some analysts argue that the neutral or slightly negative trajectory of funding rates in derivative markets indicates a search for equilibrium rather than excessively leveraged expansion. With 15,000 BTC in assets, Binance has climbed to the top ranks in the institutional Bitcoin treasury league, surpassing not only Coinbase but also industry players like Hut 8 and CleanSpark.
Franklin Templeton, which manages approximately $1.6 trillion in assets, and Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by daily trading volume, have launched a new program of great interest to institutional investors. The program allows large-scale investors to trade in cryptocurrency markets without transferring their assets to the exchange. Under the new structure, tokenized money market fund (MMF) shares issued through Franklin Templeton's Benji Technology Platform can be used as collateral on Binance. However, there's a critical detail: these assets are not directly sent to the exchange. Instead, they remain held in regulated custodians.The system works as follows: The institutional client uses the tokenized fund shares held in the custodian as collateral. Binance then "reflects" the value of this collateral in its own trading infrastructure. Thus, the investor can carry out buy and sell transactions; however, the underlying assets remain outside the exchange, within a regulated custodial structure.This model addresses concerns about increased counterparty risk, particularly following past exchange failures and custody crises. One of the biggest question marks for institutions was the risks that holding high-value assets on centralized platforms could create.The new structure aims to mitigate this risk. While assets remain under regulated custody, investors can still actively trade in crypto markets. Moreover, money market fund shares held as collateral continue to generate returns. Thus, capital efficiency increases compared to balances sitting idle on the exchange.Custody and settlement processes are handled by Ceffu, Binance's institutional custody partner. Tokenized fund shares are held there; only the collateral value is integrated into the trading environment on the Binance system.Traditional products are being brought to the blockchainThis step is seen as part of a trend among asset management companies and banks to adapt existing cash and liquidity tools to blockchain infrastructure by tokenizing them, rather than launching entirely "crypto-specific" new products. Franklin Templeton has recently made several updates to make its money market funds compatible with blockchain-based consensus systems. The company also modified two of its institutional funds to develop structures compliant with stablecoin reserve requirements in the US. The Benji platform is also expanding by opening up to different networks. Launched on BNB Chain in September 2025, the platform currently operates on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Solana, and Stellar networks. This expansion paves the way for the use of tokenized traditional finance products across multiple blockchain ecosystems. Franklin Templeton Head of Digital Assets Roger Bayston stated that the focus of the collaboration with Binance since 2025 has been to develop scalable solutions tailored to institutional needs. According to Bayston, the over-the-counter collateral model offers the possibility of secure trading in crypto markets with assets that continue to generate returns under regulated custody. A more constructive tone is also noticeable on the regulatory front in the US. SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda recently stated that unnecessary obstacles should not be created at a time when tokenization is moving from theory to practice.
Goldman Sachs revealed a remarkable position in crypto assets in its 13F filing for the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the filing submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the bank holds a total of over $2.36 billion in digital asset-linked ETF positions.What's in the Wall Street giant's portfolio?Looking at the portfolio breakdown, approximately $1.1 billion in Bitcoin ETFs, $1 billion in Ethereum ETFs, $153 million in XRP ETFs, and $108 million in Solana ETFs stand out. These items represent approximately 0.33% of the bank's reported investment portfolio. While seemingly small in proportion, in terms of nominal size, it makes Goldman Sachs one of the major US banks with the highest exposure to crypto-linked assets.The detail regarding XRP is particularly noteworthy. The bank's approximately $152–153 million XRP position is held not through direct token custody, but through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The total net asset value of spot XRP ETFs traded in the US has exceeded $1 billion, and the products have only recorded net outflows for a few days so far. This indicates that institutional demand for XRP through regulated instruments remains stable.Goldman Sachs, managing approximately $3.2-3.6 trillion in assets, is a leading global player in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and asset management. Therefore, the bank's portfolio statements are often read as a leading indicator of broader institutional trends.Goldman's approach to Bitcoin has undergone a significant transformation over the years. Before 2020, bank executives and research teams described Bitcoin as a highly volatile, non-cash-flow generating speculative asset. It was frequently emphasized that crypto assets were not suitable for conservative portfolios and that regulatory risks outweighed other considerations.However, after 2020, increased institutional demand and market depth softened this rhetoric. The bank reactivated its crypto trading desk, expanded access to derivatives, and published research acknowledging Bitcoin's potential as a hedge against inflation. Despite this, it avoided positioning crypto as a primary asset class.During the crypto winter of 2022, attention was drawn again to infrastructure and counterparty risks. The recent strategy offers a more cautious participation model; instead of directly holding spot assets, it proceeds through ETFs, structured products, and tokenization projects.ETFs play a critical role here. For traditional financial institutions, ETFs offer a liquid and transparent access channel that is compliant with existing regulatory and risk management frameworks. Banks can thus be exposed to crypto price movements without directly undertaking custody, technical infrastructure, or operational risks.
