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May employment figures from the United States came in at nearly twice market expectations, adding further pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, the economy added 172,000 new jobs last month, while economists had expected a figure of around 85,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.3 percent, in line with expectations.Bitcoin price edges lowerFollowing the report, Bitcoin struggled to hold below the $62,000 level and changed hands around $61,900 during the day. This showed that the crypto market had still failed to recover after the sharp declines seen the previous night. The overall picture was already under pressure; once such a strong employment report was added to the equation, buyers preferred to remain cautious. Why does this data matter so much? Because it carries a stronger message than it may initially seem. Such resilience in the labor market confirms that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. On the contrary, the stronger-than-expected figures suggest that additional rate hikes may remain on the table this year. The bond market reached the same conclusion: after the report, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.52 percent.Crypto was not the only market affected. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.2 percent. Crude oil slipped only slightly, while gold lost 1.1 percent and dropped to around $4,400. In an environment where overall risk appetite was narrowing, it was not realistic to expect Bitcoin to break away from the broader market and move higher on its own.Economic indicators show that the U.S. economy continued to surprise markets this week. Both the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Services PMI came in above expectations, and both remained in expansion territory. Taken together, these figures strengthen the central bank’s position; there is still no urgent need for a rate cut.Although equity markets have followed a different path, some cracks have started to become visible. The S&P 500 has maintained its upward trend for nearly ten weeks and has gained about 10 percent since the start of the year. However, Broadcom’s weaker-than-expected artificial intelligence chip demand forecast in the semiconductor sector slightly dampened the optimism that had built up in that area.Turning back to Bitcoin, the short-term picture remains unclear. The lower end of the 24-hour price range stood at $61,394, while the upper end was $64,353. The technical outlook is weak; a weekly decline of 14.77 percent is not something that can be ignored. The 30-day loss has reached 24.19 percent, showing that the pressure seen since March is still continuing.The macro environment is not creating an easy backdrop for crypto. The continuation of high interest rates limits inflows into risk assets. Every strong employment report strengthens the possibility that the Fed will maintain its tight stance for longer; this remains a factor weighing on assets such as Bitcoin. The market is now trying to hold around $62,000 after pricing in a major break from the upward trend that had been in place since the summer of 2024.The next critical data point will be inflation. Once the consumer price index (CPI) is released, the Fed’s next move will become clearer. If employment remains strong while inflation continues to prove sticky, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed back even further; this would create another headache for crypto and other risk assets.For now, the market is in a cautious waiting mode. Bitcoin is showing neither a clear breakdown signal nor a strong recovery. The $61,000-$62,000 range remains a critical support zone for the time being.
BTC is trading roughly $9,000 below its max pain level as a major options batch expires today following a week marked by heavy liquidations.Deribit, one of the leading exchanges in the crypto derivatives market, announced that around $1.81 billion worth of crypto options contracts will expire today at 11:00 a.m. Turkey time. Coming right after a week of sustained selling pressure and more than $1.5 billion in liquidations, this expiry represents a double layer of stress for market participants.BTC options: $1.56 billionMost of the expiring contracts are tied to Bitcoin. The total notional value of BTC options stands at $1.56 billion. The put/call ratio is 0.56, clearly showing a call-heavy structure, with long-position sellers far outpacing the short side. Max pain, the price point where options writers make the lowest payout and the largest number of contracts expire worthless, is at $71,000. BTC spot is currently trading roughly $9,000 below that level. If the expiry closes under these conditions, a large portion of contracts will end out of the money.According to Deribit data, the highest concentration of open interest is at the $80,000 strike price, with $1.6 billion. The short side is not silent either: there is still $1.1 billion in OI at $60,000. Coinglass figures show that total BTC options OI across all exchanges has recently declined to around $31.6 billion.ETH options: $252 millionThe Ethereum side presents a slightly different picture. Around 153,500 contracts will expire today, with a notional value of $252 million. Max pain stands at $2,000, while the put/call ratio is 0.97, almost perfectly neutral. On the ETH side, neither bulls nor bears have established a clear advantage. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is hovering around $5.7 billion.After a bloody weekThis expiry comes at the end of an extremely painful week for the crypto market. More than $300 billion was wiped from the market’s total value over the week. Bitcoin briefly fell below $62,000, while $1.5 billion in liquidations left both long and short position holders with heavy losses.Derivatives analytics platform Greeks Live said that bears became more aggressive after the price broke below $70,000, with a notable increase in put positions at the $68,000, $65,000 and $60,000 levels.Geopolitical tensions continue to add pressure. The military conflict between the United States and Iran has not been resolved in recent weeks, while global inflationary pressures have started to resurface. In this environment, risk appetite remains fragile, and institutional investors are keeping their hedging positions in place.Market impactAlthough the figure sounds large, analysts describe this expiry as a “relatively small event.” The $1.85 billion volume, which is far below last week’s month-end expiry package, is not expected to trigger a significant move in spot markets.Still, BTC spot trading this far below the max pain level cannot be ignored. During expiry periods, prices are often seen moving toward max pain. Whether that dynamic plays out this week will become clear within the next few hours.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said the Bitcoin market is approaching a bottom. Kendrick argued that spot ETF buying has remained more resilient than he expected and that Strategy could buy far more than the amount it sold last week.In February, Kendrick had predicted that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000. He now says the market is in a “buying zone.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, having lost 22 percent of its value over the past month. In a note dated February 12, Kendrick warned of a “painful and final capitulation” for digital assets, lowering his short-term Bitcoin target to $50,000 and his Ethereum target to $1,400.The key factor behind his change in view is the shift in spot Bitcoin ETF behavior. In February, Kendrick believed that sharp selling from ETFs could create significant downside risk. That scenario did not play out. ETF holdings rose from 682,000 Bitcoin at the time to a peak, then fell back to around 674,000 Bitcoin. In other words, the net change over that period was almost zero. Kendrick interpreted this as follows: “This shows me that ETF holdings are structurally stronger than I feared in February.”According to the analyst, this is not the only thing that has changed. The broader market behavior is also notable. Bitcoin has clearly diverged from equities this year in terms of correlation. This suggests that most open long positions were already liquidated during previous waves of volatility, meaning potential downside pressure may now be more limited.The Strategy FactorThe direct trigger behind the weekly selling pressure was Strategy. The company sold 32 Bitcoin last week. Kendrick described the timing as “unfortunate” and acknowledged that the move played directly into the hands of Bitcoin skeptics.Kendrick’s reading, based on historical precedent, is as follows: Strategy last sold Bitcoin on December 22, 2022, when it offloaded 704 BTC for tax optimization purposes. Just two days later, it bought back 810 BTC. The analyst thinks the buyback could be much larger this time, with the possibility of a purchase of around 320 Bitcoin, or 10 times the amount sold, or around 3,200 Bitcoin, equal to 100 times the sale.According to Kendrick, such a purchase would be a strong signal confirming the bottom.This week, roughly $1.5 billion in liquidations took place in the futures market. Kendrick compared this figure with the liquidation waves seen between January 29-31 and February 3-6, noting that they were similar in size. In other words, this was not an extraordinary development.The analyst also admits that there is still a lasting risk below $60,000. However, the current picture makes that risk look relatively limited. Bitcoin’s low correlation with equity markets since the beginning of the year suggests that opportunistic leveraged positions have largely been cleared out.The note ends with the following sentence: “There are a lot of ‘ifs’ in the above, so rather than trying to call the bottom with certainty, an accumulation strategy makes more sense.”Year-End Targets Remain UnchangedKendrick is maintaining his targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for ETH. Last month, he compared ETH’s price action to Amazon’s stock performance during the dot-com era. At the time, Standard Chartered analysts also argued that on-chain metrics would eventually be reflected in price.In his note to clients, Kendrick summarized this week with the following words: “This has been a tough week for crypto; there is no other way to say it. But when we look back from a point where BTC is at $100,000 and ETH is at $4,000 by the end of 2026, I think we will say this was the buying zone everyone had been waiting for.”
Bitcoin is trading at $62,885 today. BTC has lost 14.28 percent over the past seven days, pointing to a sharp decline in institutional demand since its January peak of $80,000.Coinbase premium falls to February levelsThe signal troubling the market most is coming from the Coinbase Premium Index. The index measures the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and Binance. That gap has now fallen to minus 0.19, its lowest level since the sudden sell-off seen in February.This may look like a simple technical indicator, but it carries broader meaning. Coinbase is mostly used by U.S.-based institutional investors. Such a negative premium suggests that American buyers are far more cautious than offshore investors.ETF bleeding reaches 13 daysU.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs confirm the same picture. According to SoSoValue data, the funds have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days since mid-May, with total losses reaching $4.37 billion during this period. Total net assets fell from $104.29 billion on May 15 to $82.83 billion, marking a $21.46 billion drop in roughly three weeks.Most of the bleeding came from movements in two funds. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $342.34 million in outflows in a single day. Fidelity’s FBTC lost another $54.26 million on the same day. Alongside the decline in BTC price, the two funds fell by 2.76 percent and 2.65 percent, respectively.The crash spreads to altcoin ETFsFor a while, altcoin ETFs had been drawing small but steady inflows thanks to retail investor interest. That picture has now changed. Ethereum ETFs recorded $52.94 million in outflows in a single day, with the largest share coming from BlackRock’s ETHA fund at $51.58 million. Solana funds saw $12.74 million in net outflows, while XRP funds lost $5.34 million.At this point, there is almost no category left in the market showing net inflows. The only exception is ETFs tied to the Hyperliquid token, HYPE. 21Shares’ THYP fund managed to attract $2.99 million on the same day and has accumulated $139.51 million since its launch on May 12.Grayscale also launched its own Hyperliquid product, HYPG, on the same day. The fund stands out with a lower expense ratio than its competitors, but its launch came precisely on a day when almost every other crypto ETF category was seeing outflows.Liquidation data confirms the pressureThe futures market is pointing in the same direction. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the crypto market reached $1.71 billion. Long positions accounted for 85.95 percent of this liquidation wave, meaning that most of the losses came from investors betting on higher prices. Over the past 12 hours, the share stood at 85.51 percent. Long-position liquidations alone reached $1.47 billion over 24 hours. This data shows that the price decline was not only the result of weaker demand. Forced closures of leveraged long positions also intensified the selling pressure.Citi says ETF flows explain BTC price movesIn a note sent to clients last Tuesday, Citi said spot Bitcoin ETF flows explain roughly 45 percent of weekly BTC price movements. The bank expects investor sentiment to remain under pressure as long as ETF flows stay negative and U.S. crypto market structure legislation remains stalled in Congress.From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading range stands between $61,557 and $67,327. BTC traded above $80,000 at the beginning of May and has since lost more than 20 percent.The main concern in the market is not retail investor fear at this stage. It is the speed at which institutional players are pulling back.
Bitcoin and major altcoins traded under broad selling pressure on Wednesday. BTC was down 2.75% on the day at $66,809, while Ethereum fell 5.49%. Solana dropped 5.31% and BNB lost 6.11%, making them some of the notable decliners during the mid-session. The U.S. macro data released during the day did not directly create this picture; markets were already under pressure. However, the figures also failed to strengthen the case for a recovery. According to ADP’s May private-sector employment report released on Wednesday, the U.S. economy added 122,000 new jobs last month. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected 117,000, while April’s figure was revised down from 109,000 to 105,000. The number came in above expectations, but analysts avoided reading it as a sign of a strengthening labor market.The sectoral breakdown offers a clearer picture of the increase. Education and health services accounted for nearly half of the growth alone, adding 57,000 new positions. Trade, transportation and utilities recorded an increase of 36,000. Meanwhile, the information technology sector and natural resources and mining saw net job losses.Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the current picture does not provide convincing evidence that the labor market is regaining momentum. Hiring intention indexes from NFIB and regional Fed surveys, along with the Conference Board’s job availability index, have weakened noticeably in recent months. The ADP report has historically been weak at predicting Friday’s BLS data, which limits its guiding impact on markets.Indeed, the main focus is now on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payroll growth to slow to 85,000 in May after April’s 115,000 increase. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.Behind this picture is a labor market that was shaken last year by tariff-related uncertainty, a process that has largely been absorbed. However, the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran is pushing commodity prices higher, while inflation pressure continues. In April, inflation recorded its fastest increase in three years. Against this backdrop, the market broadly expects the Fed to keep interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range and continue monitoring developments.The JOLTS report released on Tuesday showed an increase in job openings in April, but that increase was concentrated in a single sector. Hiring declined, while layoffs also fell. This suggests that April’s relatively strong employment gain was driven not by new hiring, but by a low layoff rate.PMI Data Also ReleasedThe picture on the PMI side was even more mixed. According to S&P Global’s May data, the U.S. Composite PMI came in at 51.5, below the expected 51.7. The Services PMI fell to 50.7, while the previous reading and market expectation stood at 50.9. Both indexes remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, meaning growth technically continued. However, momentum kept weakening.For crypto markets, this macro picture did not act as a direct trigger. Bitcoin was already trading 2.75% lower when the data arrived. Solana’s 10.38% weekly gain and Hyperliquid’s 19.76% weekly rise also show how mixed the broader picture remains. Weaker PMI data and a below-forecast services reading do not support risk appetite, while expectations that the Fed will not rush into rate cuts this year continue to act as a background factor behind ongoing fund outflows from crypto.
Bitcoin fell as low as $65,700 on Tuesday night. This marked one of the sharpest intraday drops seen in recent weeks. Although the asset recovered to around $66,900 shortly afterward, the broader question remains: Is this decline the beginning of a longer period of pressure?The broader picture in the crypto marketBitcoin’s pullback also triggered steep losses across other major cryptocurrencies. Ethereum dropped 5 percent to $1,872, while BNB fell 6 percent to $641. XRP lost 2 percent, and Solana declined 5 percent. ETF outflows mark a 12-day negative streakThe main data point deepening the selling pressure came from the ETF side. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $519.2 million in net outflows on Tuesday. This also marked the 12th consecutive day of negative flows. Spot Ethereum ETFs also extended their uninterrupted outflow streak to 16 days, with $90.2 million in withdrawals.Twelve consecutive days of outflows indicate that institutional investors are currently acting with significant caution in the market.Zeus Research analyst Dominick John said three key factors were behind the decline: heavy outflows from institutional ETFs, aggressive long-position liquidations, and a broader macro shift toward risk aversion. According to John, “the forced unwinding of leveraged positions accelerated downward pressure on major assets.”Middle East tensions weaken risk appetiteAndri Fauzan Adziima, research director at the Bitrue Research Institute, said the latest airstrikes in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and significantly weakened risk appetite. According to Adziima, this development “triggered large-scale long liquidations, accelerated ETF outflows, and showed Bitcoin behaving more like a high-risk asset than a safe-haven instrument.”Oil markets indeed saw a notable move. WTI crude futures rose 1.13 percent to $94.82, while Brent crude climbed 1.04 percent to $97.07. When oil reaches these levels, the environment is rarely favorable for crypto.Asian equities followed a mixed course. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index hit a record high after rising 2.95 percent midway through the session. China’s CSI 300 index gained 1.13 percent. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.56 percent.Strategy’s Bitcoin sale did not go unnoticedAlongside geopolitical tensions, there was another issue markets were trying to digest: Strategy’s Bitcoin sale.The company told the SEC that it sold 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million between May 26 and May 31. This marked the first Bitcoin sale by the Michael Saylor-led firm since December 2022.Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, drew attention to the sale’s psychological impact on the market. “Those looking for a BTC-specific narrative to explain Bitcoin’s weak 24-hour performance will inevitably point to MSTR’s sale of 32 BTC,” Chung said. However, he does not see this as a sufficient explanation. In his view, the real breakdown began a few weeks earlier and was most likely driven by selling pressure created to fund rotational buying into AI-themed equities.Saylor had described the sale as an “inoculation.” Whether this small-scale move will be seen as a smart defensive maneuver or the final straw for an already impatient market depends largely on how investors position the sale, according to Chung.Strategy’s Nasdaq-listed shares closed Tuesday at $136.08, down 9.15 percent. The company’s stock has lost roughly 23 percent over the past month.
Strive, which follows a corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy, turned the latest market pullback into a new buying opportunity. The company announced that it purchased 2,500 Bitcoin for approximately $185.2 million. According to Strive’s 8-K filing, the acquisition was made at an average price of $74,092 per Bitcoin. With the latest transaction, the company’s total Bitcoin holdings rose to 19,000 BTC.The purchase came at a time when Bitcoin’s price has been under pressure in recent days. According to market data, Bitcoin fell to around $70,800 on Tuesday morning after trading above $74,000 last week. Strive’s latest acquisition was completed at a lower average cost compared to its previous Bitcoin purchase announced on May 22. At that time, the company had bought 1,109 BTC at an average price of $76,989 per Bitcoin.Strive moves towards top 10This picture suggests that Strive continues to view price pullbacks as part of its long-term treasury strategy. The company’s latest purchase also pushed it further toward the top 10 publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holders. Strive had previously signaled that it would continue its Bitcoin accumulation strategy aggressively and had laid out a long-term target that could reach up to 75,000 BTC. The company was previously reported to be watching large supply opportunities, including potential Mt. Gox-related sales, as part of this strategy.Strive CEO Matt Cole also shared details of the latest purchase in a post on X. Cole stated that the 2,500 BTC was acquired at an average price of $74,092 and that the company’s total position had reached approximately 19,000 BTC. The announcement also included internal performance metrics linked to the company’s Bitcoin strategy. Strive reported a quarter-to-date BTC yield of 23 percent and a year-to-date BTC yield of 36.7 percent.The company also reported an amplification ratio of 57 percent. This metric is followed as an indicator of how much Strive has expanded its Bitcoin position relative to its capital base. In corporate Bitcoin treasury models, such ratios show not only whether companies are making direct purchases, but also how they use their financial structure to increase Bitcoin exposure.At the same time, Strive emphasized that it is not focused solely on aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. The company said it had increased its cash reserves to maintain an 18-month dividend reserve. This move aims to create a more predictable area for shareholder payments despite volatility in Bitcoin’s price. In this way, Strive is trying to strike a more cautious balance in balance sheet management while continuing to expand its Bitcoin position.Strive’s purchase came during a week in which attention in the corporate Bitcoin market had turned to Strategy. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, disclosed on Monday that it had sold 32 BTC. The company generated $2.5 million from the sale, at an average price of $77,135. Although the amount sold was very small compared to its total holdings, the move drew attention because it was Strategy’s first publicly disclosed Bitcoin sale.The development came on top of weakness in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, increasing pressure on investor sentiment. Some market participants interpreted Strategy’s sale as a symbolic shift, while Strive’s purchase during the same period highlighted a divergence between corporate strategies. On one side was the largest corporate Bitcoin holder making a limited sale; on the other was Strive, using the pullback to increase its position.Strive also received a positive assessment from the analyst side. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer initiated coverage of Strive on Tuesday with a Buy rating and a $32 price target. This target implies roughly 93 percent upside, even after the company’s Class A shares fell 3.59 percent to $16.58 in pre-market trading.Benchmark’s assessment shows that Strive’s Bitcoin treasury strategy is still seen by the market as a strong growth story. However, the company’s share performance remains directly tied to fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price and investor appetite for the corporate treasury model. For this reason, Strive’s new Bitcoin purchase is being closely watched not only in terms of balance sheet size, but also as an indicator of whether risk appetite in institutional crypto investment remains intact.
Mt. Gox wallets, which have been closely watched by the crypto market for years, have moved again. According to Arkham Intelligence data, the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox transferred a total of 10,306 BTC to two different addresses early Tuesday morning. At current market prices, the total value of these transactions is approximately $739 million. The move drew attention because it marked the first major Bitcoin transfer from Mt. Gox-linked wallets since March. Similar large transfers in the past have sometimes taken place before creditor repayments. For that reason, investors have started watching whether the latest transactions could also be linked to a possible distribution process.Did the transfers cause selling pressure?According to Arkham data, Mt. Gox sent 10,306 BTC from its cold wallets to an unmarked address beginning with “14FE…c9eq” at around 7:47 a.m. Turkish time on Tuesday. The transfer was valued at approximately $730.8 million at the time of the transaction. In the same time frame, 116.3 BTC was also moved to the exchange’s hot wallet.About two hours later, another transaction took place at around 9:46 a.m. Mt. Gox-linked wallets transferred 116.3 BTC to another address beginning with “1A4x…QNj4.” The same transaction also included a very small amount of Bitcoin, worth around $1.19, sent to a Bitstamp cold wallet.Arkham currently marks the transferred Bitcoin as “unspent.” This shows that the funds have not yet been moved to any exchange and that there is no clear sign they are being prepared for direct sale. The fact that the receiving address is not associated with a centralized or decentralized exchange was also one of the details that limited the initial panic in the market.Still, the Mt. Gox name continues to carry strong psychological weight in the Bitcoin market. Repayments to the exchange’s creditors have long been tracked as a potential source of selling pressure in the crypto market. In the past, large wallet movements have sometimes been interpreted as a signal that creditor repayments were approaching. However, it is still unclear whether the latest transfers were made within that context.Mt. Gox still holds 34,504 BTC across its wallets. These holdings are currently valued at approximately $2.43 billion. Therefore, while the latest transfer is large, it does not represent the exchange’s entire Bitcoin reserve. From a market perspective, the key question is how much of these assets could be sold on the spot market if they are distributed to creditors.On the other hand, the situation is not being interpreted only through the possibility of direct selling. Mt. Gox claims have recently started attracting interest from institutional investors as well. Strive Asset Management was previously reported to be planning to build a 75,000 BTC treasury by purchasing approved but undistributed Mt. Gox claims. That plan is said to point to a size of around $8 billion.This development suggests that some creditors may prefer to cash out their claims before distribution. In such a scenario, not all Bitcoin would necessarily enter the spot market directly. Institutional buyers taking over these claims could change how potential selling pressure is reflected in the market.Mt. Gox is remembered as one of the most well-known collapses in Bitcoin history. The Tokyo-based exchange handled around 70% of global Bitcoin transactions in 2013. However, after a major security breach in 2014, approximately 850,000 BTC was lost. The company then filed for bankruptcy protection, and the creditor repayment process turned into a complex legal case that has continued for years.The exchange began repaying creditors in July 2024 through partner platforms such as Kraken and Bitstamp. However, the rehabilitation trustee extended the repayment deadline to October 2026 last year. This marked the third postponement since the original deadline of October 31, 2023.
Crypto asset investment products saw $1.67 billion in outflows this week. It marked the third consecutive negative week and the second-largest weekly outflow of 2026 so far. Only the week of January 23 was worse.Cumulative outflows over the past three weeks have now reached $4.21 billion. This suggests that the risk-off mood triggered by Iran-related geopolitical tensions has largely overshadowed the positive sentiment created by the CLARITY Act. Total assets under management (AuM) fell from $148 billion last week to $141 billion, the lowest level since early April. The picture resembles the January-February period, when the market saw five consecutive weeks of outflows.Bitcoin records its largest weekly outflow of 2026Bitcoin took the hardest hit this week. The asset saw $1.438 billion in outflows, surpassing both last week’s record and the January peak. Bitcoin’s year-to-date inflows are also shrinking fast: they stood at $3.9 billion two weeks ago, fell to $2.6 billion last week, and dropped to $1.2 billion this week.The picture is not bright for Ethereum either. With $257 million in outflows, the risk-off sentiment has clearly spread to Ethereum as well. Ethereum’s year-to-date flow balance has already turned negative, standing at minus $346 million.Regional breakdown: The US still leadsLooking at the regional distribution, almost all of the global outflows came from the United States, which accounted for $1.63 billion alone. Germany, which had remained relatively resilient in previous weeks, joined the latest risk-off wave and recorded $25.7 million in outflows. Sweden saw $6.6 million in outflows, while Hong Kong posted $4.5 million.Canada was one of the few countries that managed to hold up, staying positive with a modest $0.4 million in inflows. Switzerland and the Netherlands also recorded small inflows of $0.5 million and $1.3 million, respectively.Altcoin participation collapsesThree weeks ago, 11 altcoins were recording inflows. This week, that number fell to five. The assets that managed to attract meaningful inflows were XRP with $20.3 million, Hyperliquid with $10.8 million, and Near with $7.6 million. Chainlink recorded $0.7 million in inflows, while Sui remained positive on a month-to-date basis with $7.2 million. However, Solana, Ethereum, and multi-asset products continued to see outflows. On the provider side, iShares recorded the largest outflow of the week at $1.148 billion. It was followed by Grayscale with $251 million and Fidelity with $190 million. On a year-to-date basis, Fidelity’s total outflows have reached $1.683 billion, giving it the weakest flow profile in the sector. In contrast, 21Shares AG remained positive on a monthly basis with $8 million in inflows, while Bitwise stayed positive month-to-date with $54 million.The message from CoinShares’ weekly report is clear: institutional investors remain cautious. The scale of three-week cumulative outflows and the sharp narrowing in altcoin participation show that risk appetite in the market has weakened significantly. As long as geopolitical pressure continues and macroeconomic uncertainty persists, flows may need a strong catalyst to turn positive in the short term.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total of $2.97 billion in outflows across 10 consecutive trading sessions. Rising oil prices and the stalled negotiations with Iran added further pressure on crypto markets. While global equities reached record highs in this environment, digital assets failed to join the rally.Stocks hit records, crypto lags behindDuring Monday’s Asian session, the MSCI All Country World Index rose 0.2%, while Asian equities climbed 1.1% to reach an all-time high. Technology indexes in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan also set fresh records at the same time.Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% after Nvidia announced that it would directly compete with Intel and AMD in the Windows laptop market. SoftBank, meanwhile, surged as much as 11% thanks to its investments in OpenAI and Arm, moving closer to becoming Japan’s most valuable publicly traded company.Oil complicated the picture. Brent crude rose above $93 per barrel after attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz failed and tensions in the Middle East continued. This development weighed on Treasury bonds.Crypto, however, could not keep pace with the equity rally. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin fell 4.6% to $72,800. Ethereum and Solana lost 4.6% and 3.7% over the same period, dropping to $1,996 and $81.89, respectively. TRON declined 3.7%, while Dogecoin slipped 1.6%. 10 sessions, $2.97 billionOutflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began on May 15, continued without interruption until May 29, and removed $2.97 billion from the market during this period. The streak surpassed the eight-session outflow run recorded at the beginning of 2025, marking a new record.The single-session outflow on May 27 reached $733 million, the highest daily outflow figure seen since January. According to SoSoValue data, total net assets in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs fell from $104.29 billion on May 15 to $94.17 billion as of May 30.The situation in Ethereum ETFs is even heavier. These funds have now seen 14 consecutive sessions of outflows, while roughly $2.6 billion in net assets has been erased over the same period.The only bright spot: HYPEWhile the broader picture remained this dark, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token moved in the opposite direction. HYPE rose 18.7% over the past seven days to reach $73.17, becoming the only asset among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization to post a positive performance.The U.S. spot HYPE ETF, which began trading on May 12, has recorded net inflows in every session since its launch. Its cumulative net assets exceeded $122 million as of May 30. Analysts link this interest to Hyperliquid’s strong growth in decentralized derivatives trading volume and protocol revenue.The macro backdrop works against cryptoOil remaining above $93 and the continued deadlock in the Iran nuclear agreement have removed the macro support crypto markets had been waiting for. ETF inflows, which fueled last year’s rally, moved in the opposite direction for 10 consecutive sessions, while there was no meaningful relief in bond yields.The emerging consensus is that some institutional investors appear to have reduced their risk appetite. Whether Bitcoin can hold the $70,000 range and when ETF outflows will stabilize are among the key questions for the coming week.
Bitcoin fell below $73,000 between Wednesday night and Thursday, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily outflow in recent months and macroeconomic pressure showed little sign of easing.Bitcoin Drops 3.6%According to market data, Bitcoin fell 3.6% over the past 24 hours to $72,842. Ethereum dropped 4.8% to $1,974. XRP and Solana also took a hit, each losing around 3.5%. Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, described the situation as a combination of profit-taking after recent highs, rising U.S. Treasury yields and macro caution fueled by geopolitical developments. Together, these factors pushed markets into risk-off mode.Zeus Research analyst Dominick John pointed to another side of the decline. According to John, institutional capital shifting into traditional equity markets, along with heavy derivatives liquidations triggered after key BTC and ETH levels were broken, helped drag prices lower. He also said geopolitical uncertainty kept investors defensive and weakened dip-buying.Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, said Bitcoin has shown an “unusual trading pattern” since mid-May. After trading above $80,000, the price gradually weakened over the past two weeks and underperformed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq during that period. Chung linked this weakness directly to spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, noting that weekly redemptions reached levels seen during the October 2025 and February 2026 corrections.BlackRock’s IBIT Sees Its Second-Largest Outflow EverOn Wednesday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of $733.4 million. According to SoSoValue data, this was the highest daily outflow recorded since January 29.The most striking figure came from BlackRock’s IBIT. The fund saw $527.8 million in net outflows, marking its second-largest daily exit since launch. Grayscale’s GBTC followed with $104.8 million in outflows. Four ETFs managed by Grayscale, Fidelity, Bitwise and Ark & 21Shares also closed the day with negative flows. The only fund to end the day in positive territory was Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, which recorded just $4.3 million in inflows.John said most of the outflows were driven by the unwinding of arbitrage basis trades and institutional risk-reduction strategies. In IBIT’s case, a large block trade from the previous day also comes into focus. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that on Tuesday, a block trade involving 29.2 million IBIT shares, worth around $1.3 billion, took place. That transaction pushed total Bitcoin ETF volume on Tuesday to $4.4 billion, the highest daily volume since April 17.Ruck said investors are closely watching ETF flow momentum and support levels around $70,000. Continued outflows could signal that institutional capital is moving away from the crypto market.Asian markets also opened lower on Thursday morning. Renewed attacks between the U.S. and Iran, which threatened a fragile ceasefire, sent Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 1.9% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.25%.Treasury Operations Could Add More PressureAnother warning has now been added to the bearish market backdrop. Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, expects upcoming U.S. Treasury bond and bill operations to drain roughly $150 billion in liquidity from the financial system.“In my experience, Bitcoin gives a more reliable signal as a liquidity indicator than most instruments. If Treasury payments drain liquidity, Bitcoin could move much lower,” Kramer said.The logic behind Treasury bond and bill sales works like this: newly issued securities pull cash from investors, and that money is transferred into the Treasury’s account at the Federal Reserve. As a result, a significant amount of liquidity is withdrawn from the banking system, reducing the free cash available for other investments.According to Kramer’s calculations, Treasury operations between May 28 and June 5 are lined up as follows: $15 billion in short-term bill payments on Thursday, $47 billion in coupon-bearing bond payments on Friday, $68 billion on Monday, $16 billion on Tuesday and an additional bill payment estimated between $5 billion and $15 billion on June 4.The first signs of this pressure have already appeared in prices. Bitcoin has fallen around 11% from this month’s peak above $82,500 and has lost the critical support level near $75,000. Kramer sees this breakdown as a clear sign that liquidity conditions are tightening.
The crypto market is hovering just above a critical threshold on Wednesday. Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the $78,000 resistance on Tuesday and is now stuck above the $75,000 support, but below $76,000. That distinction is not trivial. Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee had said the end of the bear market could only be confirmed if BTC closed May above $76,000. For now, we are below that line. Ethereum is not showing a very different picture. After being rejected from the $2,150 resistance on Tuesday, ETH slipped toward the $2,000 support. On Wednesday morning, it bounced from $2,050 and was trading around $2,080. The technical outlook, however, raises doubts. ETH has broken the uptrend line it had held since February, opening the door to deeper losses.AI Tokens Give Back Their GainsAfter Tuesday’s rally, closely watched AI tokens RENDER, FET and NEAR lost between 1% and 3% since midnight. The move has not created broad panic, but the overall altcoin picture remains cautious.Two exceptions stand out. Hyperliquid’s HYPE token rose 5.5% after hitting a record high this week. Monero also gained 5%, retesting the $400 level. Both have become bright spots in an otherwise thin altcoin market in recent days.The broader picture contrasts with equities. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures tested record levels on Wednesday, rising around 0.3%. As U.S. stocks continue to diverge from crypto, questions about the correlation between these two asset classes are moving back to the top of the agenda.There Is a Quiet Warning in FuturesAfter the holiday weekend, futures trading volumes rose 54% to $201 billion on a 24-hour basis, while liquidations jumped 87%. These large percentage increases can primarily be explained by the end of the holiday lull; they do not necessarily reflect a structural shift.Still, there is a more striking picture in the background. Bitcoin fell 1% over the past 24 hours, while open interest climbed from 704,000 BTC to 740,000 BTC. When price falls while open interest rises, the combination is usually interpreted as confirmation of a downtrend. Negative cumulative volume delta (CVD) also shows that market participants are selling aggressively, while funding rates remain neutral for now.There is also a concerning signal on the Ethereum side. ETH open interest has reached an all-time high of 15.57 million ETH. When this appears alongside negative CVD, it may suggest that traders are positioning for deeper price declines.Zcash (ZEC) is showing the opposite setup. Open interest in ZEC futures has fallen for a third consecutive day, while the price has dropped to $564. When price and open interest decline at the same time, it is often driven by the closing of existing long positions rather than the opening of new short positions.Deribit Data Points to Downside BetsBitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, rose by around 3% to 37.35, breaking a 10-day losing streak. This recovery from yearly lows may indicate that the market is starting to seek protection against a potential price shock.The options market sends a clearer signal. According to Deribit data, the most traded contract over the past 24 hours was a put option pointing to Bitcoin falling to $55,000 by the end of September. Overall activity is concentrated around downside hedges at various strike prices between $70,000 and $76,000.In short, the market still does not know where it wants to go. Bitcoin is holding just above the $75,000 support, but Tom Lee’s $76,000 line remains out of reach. Futures, implied volatility and options positioning all point in the same direction: investors are preparing for downside.
Strategy’s latest move was unusual: instead of buying Bitcoin, it paid down debt. The company repurchased a $1.5 billion tranche of its zero-coupon convertible notes due in 2029. The amount payable was $1.38 billion, meaning the notes were bought back below their nominal value, at a discount of roughly $120 million. The transaction was funded from cash reserves, reducing the company’s cash holdings to around $871 million. The agreement was completed last week and disclosed to the public in a filing on Tuesday.Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced the move briefly on X: “This week we bought bonds, not Bitcoin. BitVac is charging.” What Changed and What Stayed the Same?Following the transaction, the company’s total debt load fell from $8.2 billion to $6.7 billion. Although it may look like a one-off move, the broader context matters. Strategy has long used various debt instruments to buy Bitcoin, but this time it focused on the liability side of its balance sheet.Its Bitcoin treasury remained untouched. The company still holds 843,738 BTC, with an average purchase price of $75,700 per coin and a total cost of approximately $63.9 billion. This remains the largest Bitcoin stockpile held by any company worldwide.Market Reaction Remained LimitedMSTR shares traded 1.9% higher in pre-market activity after the news. On the Bitcoin side, the picture was slightly more mixed. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $77,172, within a 24-hour range of $76,452 to $77,703. The daily change stood at minus 0.31%, while the weekly performance remained positive at 0.64%. Over the past month, BTC was down 1.17%.In short, Bitcoin is neither showing a strong recovery nor facing heavy selling pressure; it appears stuck around the $77,000 range. The debt repurchase did not trigger a major price move in this environment, but it can be read as a signal of balance sheet confidence.How to Read the MoveConsidering that Strategy frames its Bitcoin accumulation as a long-term game, this step looks consistent. As borrowing costs rise slightly from zero or refinancing conditions shift, it makes sense for the company to optimize its existing liabilities, especially if it can repurchase notes below their nominal value.The company reported a BTC yield of 13.3% for the year, meaning management argues that BTC value per share has increased despite Bitcoin’s ongoing price volatility. Debt reduction contributes directly to that equation; less debt means less interest pressure and more room to maneuver.For now, the broader strategy does not appear to have changed. Strategy continues to hold Bitcoin, and the market already knows this. But its willingness to clean up the balance sheet is also partly shaping how the bond market views the company. A debt load of $6.7 billion is still far from small.
Crypto investment products saw $1.47 billion in outflows this week. This marks the third-largest weekly outflow of 2026 and the second consecutive negative week. It is the sharpest selling wave since the twin $1.7 billion outflow weeks recorded at the end of January.According to CoinShares’ weekly report, cumulative outflows over the past two weeks reached $2.54 billion. Despite progress around the CLARITY Act, risk appetite continues to weaken due to Iran-related geopolitical concerns, and this pressure is now spreading geographically.Bitcoin Records Its Largest Weekly Outflow of 2026Bitcoin funds ended the week with $1.315 billion in outflows. This figure surpassed the late-January peak, making it the largest weekly BTC outflow of 2026. Year-to-date cumulative inflows into Bitcoin fell from $3.9 billion to $2.6 billion. In other words, $1.3 billion was erased in a single week.U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs also posted $1.26 billion in outflows, marking their worst week since late January.Ethereum was also affected by the broader pressure. ETH products recorded $222.8 million in outflows, almost unchanged from the previous week. Ethereum’s year-to-date cumulative flow has now turned negative at minus $89 million.Selective Interest in Altcoins Continued, But WeakenedAlthough the broader picture remained negative, some altcoin funds managed to stay in positive territory. XRP funds saw $31.8 million in inflows, while Solana received $7.7 million, Sui attracted $2.9 million, and multi-asset products recorded $4.7 million in net inflows.Short Bitcoin products also saw $10.2 million in inflows. Chainlink attracted $0.6 million, while Litecoin recorded $0.4 million in weekly inflows. Weekly data for Zcash was not disclosed. The number of assets with meaningful inflows above $1 million fell from 11 in the previous week to 9. Selling Is No Longer Just a U.S. StoryLast week, Europe’s resilience had drawn attention. This week, the picture reversed. The U.S. accounted for most of the outflows with $1.425 billion, but the selling wave has now taken on a more global character.Switzerland saw $16.2 million in outflows, Canada recorded $12.5 million, and Hong Kong posted $12.2 million in outflows. Germany remained practically flat. Europe, which had been the exception last week, is now part of the broader pressure.Provider BreakdowniShares was the most affected provider, with $1.191 billion in weekly outflows. Fidelity saw $129 million leave its products, while ARK 21Shares recorded $107 million in outflows. Grayscale’s outflows were relatively limited at $12 million.Bitwise and 21Shares AG remained slightly positive, each recording $1 million in inflows. Total assets under management were reported at $148.7 billion. The weekly outflow represented roughly 1% of that total.CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill noted in the report that Iran-linked geopolitical pressure continues to weigh on the market. Positive developments around the CLARITY Act have not been enough to halt the outflow trend for now.The two-week cumulative outflow figure of $2.54 billion points to a serious shift in sentiment for 2026. For the market to recover, geopolitical risks may need to ease or a new institutional catalyst may need to emerge. For now, both conditions remain uncertain.
For crypto markets, this week will be shaped less by internal industry developments and more by economic data coming out of the United States. Inflation, unemployment, housing and growth figures will be released before markets open. All of them point to the same question: Can the Fed cut interest rates?For now, there is no cut on the table. The CME FedWatch tool and prediction markets agree that rates will likely remain unchanged at the June meeting. That view does not seem likely to shift unless an unexpected data print arrives.The most critical release of the week comes on Wednesday. The PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, has a direct impact on markets. The previous reading stood at 3.5%. Core PCE will also be released on the same day. Where these two figures land could have a serious short-term impact on risk appetite. But this week’s macro calendar is not limited to PCE. Five major data releases are coming back to back.On Monday, the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index will be released with a May forecast of 92, compared with 92.8 in the previous month. A slight decline could signal weaker consumer spending appetite.Wednesday brings the most important part of the calendar. The PCE Price Index and Core PCE will be released; weekly jobless claims will also arrive on the same day. The jobless claims figure, expected at 212,000, directly affects how the Fed assesses the employment side of the economy. April New Home Sales will also be published on Wednesday, with expectations at 670,000. As a highly rate-sensitive sector, the housing market both reacts to Fed decisions and offers guidance for future policy.The week will close on Friday with the Chicago PMI. The May figure is expected at 49.5 and will measure manufacturing activity. If it stays below 50, the signal of economic slowdown will become stronger.The most interesting development for crypto, however, is not a monetary policy move, but a change of name. Kevin Warsh officially begins his term as Fed Chair this Monday. It remains unclear how Warsh will steer interest rate policy; any early signals he gives this week will be closely watched.What is happening on the crypto side?In terms of token unlocks, the week is especially concentrated around May 26. Huma Finance (HUMA) will unlock around 20% of its circulating supply that day, worth $11.76 million. Plasma (XPL) will also add a $7.39 million unlock on the same day. Grass (GRASS) will go through a similar process on May 29, followed by EigenCloud (EIGEN) on June 1. These unlocks can create short-term selling pressure, although market reactions do not always match expectations.The DAO side is also busy this week. Uniswap is voting on expanding its protocol fee infrastructure to BNB Chain, Polygon and Celo. At the same time, a proposal to withdraw 12.5 million UNI delegated to the Franchiser system back into the governance treasury is also up for a vote. On Arbitrum, the transfer of 30,765 ETH frozen in connection with the rsETH incident to a wallet controlled by Aave LLC is on the agenda. Compound and Aave are also voting on supply limits and operational multisig structures.The conference calendar is packed as well. The Nordic Blockchain Conference in Stockholm, Unchained Summit in Da Nang, Vietnam, and the Crypto Valley Conference in Switzerland are all taking place this week.
