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PCE Data Sends Bitcoin Soaring: BTC Approaches $73,000
Inflation data from the US, closely followed by global markets, triggered activity in the cryptocurrency market. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, one of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) most important inflation indicators, came in below expectations, helping Bitcoin regain upward momentum. Following the release of the data, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), quickly approached the $73,000 level, attracting attention.According to data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), PCE inflation in February was 2.8% year-on-year. Market expectations were at 2.9%. Thus, the inflation data came in slightly below expectations. On a monthly basis, the PCE index increased by 0.3%, presenting a picture in line with expectations.On the other hand, core PCE data, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, was announced at 3.1% year-on-year. This data aligned with market expectations and remained close to its highest levels in the last two years. Core PCE's monthly increase was also in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. The data shows that headline inflation has decreased somewhat, but core inflationary pressure remains strong.The decrease in headline PCE from 2.9 percent in January to 2.8 percent in February is considered a positive development, albeit limited, for the Fed's fight against inflation. However, the fact that core PCE continues to remain above 3 percent reveals that the Fed is still quite far from its 2 percent inflation target.These data are an important signal for the markets before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week. Analysts believe that it is highly likely that the Fed will keep the policy interest rate unchanged in light of the current data. US President Donald Trump's calls for an urgent interest rate cut are not seen as a decisive factor in the central bank's policies at this stage.Bitcoin experienced a riseFollowing the release of the inflation data, there was a rapid price movement in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin accelerated its rise following the data release, climbing to the $73,000 level. Having surpassed $72,000 during the day, BTC saw an increase of approximately 3% following the announcement. Analysts note that this rise in Bitcoin was not limited to the inflation data alone, but was also supported by strong buying in derivative markets. In particular, increased positions in futures markets are said to have strengthened BTC's upward movement. In addition, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are among the factors increasing optimism in the market. According to the latest data, approximately $54 million in new investments were made into Bitcoin ETFs in just one day. The continued interest of institutional investors plays a significant role in supporting the Bitcoin price. However, geopolitical risks on the cryptocurrency market have not completely disappeared. The ongoing tension and possibility of war between the US and Iran continue to create uncertainty in global markets. According to analysts, the tension between the two countries is pushing oil prices higher, and this could create new pressure on inflation through energy costs. The possibility that rising oil prices could fuel inflation again may lead the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy for a longer period. This is considered one of the factors that could create temporary pressure on cryptocurrencies, which are seen as risky assets.
The Crypto Market Holds Its Breath: Awaiting the Huge Option Expiration Date and US Inflation Data
The crypto market is in a cautious waiting period ahead of today's large options expiration and critical inflation data from the US. Approximately $2.2-2.3 billion worth of options contracts linked to Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP expire today, while investors are also closely watching the direction the US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation data will give to the market.Options Market: Large Amounts of Bitcoin and ETH ExpirationSuch large-scale expirations in the options market can usually lead to increased volatility in the short term. However, analysts note that this week's expiration is relatively smaller compared to previous periods and may not have a dramatic impact on spot markets.According to Deribit data, approximately 27,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire today. The total nominal value of these contracts is approximately $1.9 billion. The put/call ratio of 0.97 in Bitcoin options indicates that expectations for both bullish and bearish movements in the market are quite balanced.On the Bitcoin side, the "max pain" level, where options would cause the most losses for investors, is estimated at approximately $69,000. This level is slightly below Bitcoin's current price. The majority of open options positions are concentrated in put contracts between $55,000 and $60,000, while call contracts are concentrated in the $75,000-$80,000 range. However, options data indicates that there is approximately an 86% chance that Bitcoin will close above $71,000. On the Ethereum side, approximately 185,000 to 186,000 option contracts will expire today. The total value of these contracts is over $380 million. The put/call ratio in Ethereum options is around 1.2, indicating that bearish positions are somewhat more prevalent. The calculated max pain level for ETH is around $2,000. Despite this, options data reveals that there is over a 70% chance that the price will close above $2,100. On the XRP side, the total value of expiring options is estimated at approximately $8.8 million. The put/call ratio is at a very low level of 0.13, indicating that investors are predominantly taking long positions. The maximum pain level for XRP is around $1.40. The fact that the current price is slightly above this level suggests that investors expect a move towards the $1.50 level in the short term.US Inflation Data in the SpotlightAnother development closely followed in the crypto market, as much as option expiry, is the PCE inflation data to be released in the US. This data will be released at 15:30 Turkish time. The data, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce, is considered an important indicator, especially for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.According to economists' expectations, core PCE inflation is expected to come in at 0.4 percent on a monthly basis and 3.1 percent on an annual basis. Headline PCE is expected to increase by 0.3 percent monthly and remain around 2.9 percent on an annual basis. These data may indicate that inflation remains relatively stable despite rising energy prices. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump has called on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Trump argued that an urgent rate cut is necessary, citing increased inflation risks, particularly due to rising oil prices. However, CME FedWatch data shows that a large portion of the market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. The tool prices the probability of rates remaining unchanged at 99%. Goldman Sachs also updated its forecasts, suggesting the first rate cut could come in September, followed by a second in December. In addition to macroeconomic developments, geopolitical factors continue to impact the crypto market. The US granting a 30-day sanctions exemption to some countries to purchase Russian oil created a sense of relief in global energy markets. Following this development, Bitcoin briefly reacted upwards, approaching the $72,000 level.
US Inflation Data Met Expectations: How Did Bitcoin React?
February inflation data released in the US did not create a major surprise in the markets, as both headline and core indicators perfectly matched economists' expectations. The data, which came in line with expectations, presented a relatively calm picture for financial markets, which have been moving in the shadow of increasing geopolitical tensions in recent weeks.According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.4 percent year-on-year in February. This rate was completely in line with economists' estimates of 2.4 percent. Similarly, monthly inflation increased by 0.3 percent, in line with expectations.The picture did not change in core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as energy and food. Core CPI recorded a 2.5 percent increase year-on-year, again at the same level as market expectations. Monthly core inflation increased by 0.2 percent, confirming economists' predictions.Geopolitical tensions reignite inflation debatesDespite the data matching expectations, uncertainty in global markets has not completely disappeared. The escalating military tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have caused significant volatility in energy markets. Rising oil prices have raised concerns that this could put renewed upward pressure on inflation.Analysts say that the increase in energy prices could challenge the Federal Reserve's (Fed) long-standing 2% inflation target. Therefore, it is being discussed that the Fed may act more cautiously in its monetary policy decisions in the coming period.According to some market commentators, if a sustained rise in oil prices is seen, the Fed may even pause interest rate cuts or adopt a tighter policy against inflation risk. This situation has the potential to increase volatility, especially in risky asset classes.Bitcoin struggles around $70,000The cryptocurrency market is also exhibiting a cautious outlook in the shadow of macroeconomic developments and geopolitical risks. The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), has been fluctuating around the $70,000 level in recent days. According to market data, while Bitcoin's price has experienced sharp fluctuations throughout the day, it generally continues to trade in the $69,000-$70,000 range. Looking at intraday price movements, BTC approached the $70,000 level in the morning before experiencing a gradual pullback. The most striking point in the chart is the sudden selling pressure experienced in the middle of the day. Although Bitcoin briefly dropped below the $69,000 level, it quickly recovered above $69,000 with subsequent buying activity. At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading around $69,200. Macroeconomic data continues to be decisive for the crypto marketIn recent years, the cryptocurrency market has increasingly moved in line with macroeconomic developments. In particular, US inflation data, the Fed's interest rate policy, and geopolitical risks play a significant role in the pricing of digital assets, especially Bitcoin.While the February inflation data coming in line with expectations may not create a major shock in the markets in the short term, rising energy prices and global geopolitical developments indicate that volatility may remain high in the coming period. Therefore, investors are expected to continue closely monitoring both the Fed's messages and global developments in the coming weeks. Bitcoin's struggle around $70,000 continues to unfold against the backdrop of this macroeconomic agenda.
Two Big Whales Take the Stage in Bitcoin: $140 Million Transfer
While large wallet movements continue to attract attention in the crypto markets, both individual and government-related transfers have stood out in recent days. According to data from the blockchain analysis platform Arkham, large Bitcoin transfers made by Gemini exchange founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, along with actions by the Bhutanese government, have sparked discussions about the possibility of new sell-offs in the market. Winklevoss brothers transfer $130 million worth of BitcoinAccording to Arkham data, the Winklevoss brothers sent approximately $130 million worth of Bitcoin to Gemini exchange hot wallet addresses in the last week. The blockchain analysis company stated that these transfers "may have been made for the purpose of selling." Following this movement, it is estimated that the duo still hold approximately $764 million worth of Bitcoin. According to Arkham's calculations, the total profit the Winklevoss brothers have made from their Bitcoin investments has reached approximately $1.8 billion. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss are among those who invested in Bitcoin quite early. The pair made a total of $11 million worth of Bitcoin purchases in April 2013 at a price of approximately $120 per Bitcoin. This investment came from approximately $65 million in cash and stock compensation received following a legal dispute with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. As the price of Bitcoin rapidly rose over the years, the value of this investment increased exponentially. Particularly in late 2017, when the price of Bitcoin approached $20,000, the Winklevoss brothers' portfolio value exceeded $1 billion for the first time. At that time, estimates suggested that the amount of Bitcoin held by the pair represented approximately 1% of the circulating supply. The Winklevoss brothers later used a portion of their Bitcoin holdings to establish the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange. In its initial public offering in September 2025, the company raised approximately $425 million by pricing its Class A shares at $28. However, Gemini has recently undergone a strategic restructuring process. The company announced it will withdraw from the UK, European Union, and Australian markets to shift its operations to a leaner and more automation-focused model, while also announcing it will reduce its workforce by approximately 25 percent.The Winklevoss brothers are also known for their political donations. In August 2025, the pair donated 188 BTC, worth approximately $21 million, to a pro-Donald Trump political action committee in the US.New Bitcoin movement from BhutanAnother notable development in the crypto market comes from Bhutan. The small Himalayan country in South Asia is known as one of the world's largest state Bitcoin investors.According to Arkham data, the Bhutanese government transferred 175 BTC from its main wallet address on Monday. These Bitcoins, worth approximately $11.85 million, were sent to another address created a month ago.Blockchain data shows that these 175 BTC are still held at this new address. However, a similar transfer made previously was sent to a third address, and this address has received a total of 1,910 BTC since 2024. Arkham notes that similar transfers made by Bhutan in the past have resulted in sales. According to information shared by the company, the country occasionally conducts Bitcoin sales worth between $5 and $10 million. Sales are said to be more intense, particularly around September 2025.Estimates suggest that Bhutan's total Bitcoin holdings are around 5,400 BTC. This makes the country the seventh largest Bitcoin holder among states. The largest reserve, approximately 328,000 BTC, is held by the US government.Bhutan's Bitcoin holdings are managed by Druk Holding and Investments, a sovereign wealth fund. The fund also holds a limited amount of Ethereum and some smaller crypto assets.Bitcoin mining finances public utilitiesBhutan's Bitcoin accumulation largely stems from state-sponsored mining operations launched in 2019. The country is mining Bitcoin using its abundant hydroelectric power.Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobghay previously stated in interviews that hydroelectric power plants produce excess energy during the summer months, and this surplus is used for Bitcoin mining.The government also announced that the Bitcoin revenue generated is used to finance areas such as healthcare, environmental projects, and public employee salaries.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price has risen again above the $70,000 level. This increase comes after a few days of decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar and geopolitical risks.The Bitcoin network recently reached a significant milestone, surpassing 20 million BTC in total. The number of Bitcoins that can be mined in the next approximately 114 years is now below 1 million.
Trump’s Remarks Lift Crypto Markets: Bitcoin and Altcoins Rise
The cryptocurrency market has rebounded on increasing optimism that conflicts with Iran may be coming to an end. With the recovery in global risk appetite, many major crypto assets, especially Ethereum and Solana, have gained value. The continued interest of institutional investors in crypto funds has also been a significant factor supporting the market recovery.In the last 24 hours, the largest assets in the crypto market have moved upwards again. Ethereum rose approximately 3.2% to $2,068, settling back above the $2,000 mark, which has been considered a psychological threshold for weeks. Solana showed the strongest performance among major crypto assets, rising 3.9% to $87. BNB increased by 3.1% to $646, while XRP gained 4.6% to trade at $1.41. Bitcoin also reclaimed $70,000. Trump's statements had an impactThe main development behind this market recovery came from the geopolitical front. US President Donald Trump's statement that the conflict with Iran "could end very soon" and that military objectives have been largely completed triggered a rapid recovery in risky assets. Following these statements, strong gains were seen in Asian stock markets. Asian markets, which had fallen 3.7% the previous day, gained approximately 2%, with MSCI Asia Pacific technology stocks rising 3.5%. The pullback in oil prices after a brief surge above $100 also softened risk perception in the markets.Analysts believe the crypto market has largely priced in the negative developments of recent weeks. Analysts at on-chain data company Nansen state that the market is currently reacting more to headline news flow than to macroeconomic data. According to them, the crypto market has significantly absorbed recent geopolitical tensions, and short-term price movements are largely dependent on news flow.Institutional investor inflows also support this view. According to CoinShares' weekly report, a total of $619 million inflows were made into digital asset investment products last week. Approximately $521 million of these inflows were directed towards Bitcoin-focused investment products. This brought the total assets under management for crypto funds to $108.3 billion. It is noteworthy that these strong fund inflows occurred despite volatility in global markets. In the same week, the S&P 500 index lost approximately $1 trillion in value in a single trading day, while the US economy saw a job loss of 92,000. Despite this, the continued capital inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests, according to some analysts, that institutional investors are viewing price dips as strategic buying opportunities. One of the most important developments that will determine the market's direction in the coming days will be the US Federal Reserve's meeting on March 17-18. Analysts warn that hawkish signals, particularly regarding interest rate policy, could put renewed pressure on risky assets. The recent rise in the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 to 0.78 also indicates that the crypto market continues to move in tandem with traditional financial markets.
Strategy Buys More BTC Again, Bitmine Expands Its ETH Reserves
In the cryptocurrency market, the aggressive accumulation strategies of institutional investors continue to attract attention. Strategy, one of the largest companies holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet, further expanded its reserves with new purchases made in the past week. Meanwhile, Bitmine Immersion Technologies continues its accumulation of Ethereum, creating one of the largest ETH holdings globally.US-based Strategy announced that it purchased a total of 17,994 BTC between March 2nd and 8th. According to the 8-K report submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), these purchases amounted to approximately $1.28 billion. Strategy added these Bitcoins to its portfolio at an average price of $70,946 per BTC. With this latest purchase, the company's total Bitcoin holdings reached 738,731 BTC. Based on current prices, the market value of this reserve is approximately $50 billion. The total cost of Strategy's Bitcoin purchases to date, including transaction fees, is estimated at approximately $56 billion. This means the company's average purchase price is around $75,862.The amount of Bitcoin held by Strategy corresponds to more than 3.4% of Bitcoin's maximum fixed supply of 21 million. However, considering current price levels, the company's portfolio contains approximately $6 billion in unrealized losses.Bitcoin purchases financed by share salesThe company used the proceeds from share sales to finance its recent Bitcoin purchases. Last week, Strategy sold 6,327,541 MSTR shares, raising approximately $899.5 million. It is stated that there is still capacity to sell $6.71 billion worth of shares under the program.In addition, the company sold 3,776,205 STRC preferred shares, raising another $377.1 million. There is also an additional sales potential of approximately $3.16 billion in the STRC program.Strategy has different preferred share programs to support its Bitcoin purchases. These include perpetual preferred equity programs called STRK, STRC, STRF, and STRD. The total size of these programs is over $30 billion.The company also plans to secure funding under its “42/42 plan,” which aims to raise a total of $84 billion in capital for Bitcoin purchases by 2027.Michael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of the board of Strategy, stated on his social media account before the new purchase announcement, “The second century is beginning.” This statement was interpreted as a reference to the company’s more than 100 Bitcoin purchase rounds to date. Bitmine stands out on the Ethereum sideInstitutional crypto accumulation is not limited to Bitcoin. Bitmine Immersion Technologies is one of the leading companies rapidly growing its Ethereum reserves.According to the company’s announcement on March 8th, Bitmine purchased 60,976 ETH in the last week. Thus, the company’s total Ethereum holdings reached 4,534,563 ETH. Based on a price of approximately $1,965 per Ethereum, the value of this reserve reaches billions of dollars.Bitmine management stated that this purchase rate is above the company's average accumulation level of 45,000–50,000 ETH in recent weeks. The company stated that it considered the recent market pullback as a buying opportunity.According to current data, Bitmine holds approximately 3.76% of the circulating Ethereum supply. The company aims to bring this rate closer to its internal target of 5% supply share.Staking revenues are growingStaking operations constitute a significant part of Bitmine's Ethereum strategy. According to the company's data, a total of 3,040,483 ETH is included in the staking system. This amount is worth approximately $6 billion.It is estimated that these staking activities generate approximately $174 million in revenue annually. It is stated that this figure could reach up to $259 million when the staking infrastructure is fully scaled.The company is also continuing to develop its validator infrastructure called "Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN)". This system aims to provide a dedicated infrastructure for large-scale Ethereum validation processes.
Coinbase Launched Crypto Futures in 26 European Countries
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has expanded its derivatives portfolio in Europe, making regulated futures products available in 26 countries. According to the company's announcement on Monday, the new products will be offered to a wide user base, including major European markets such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands, through the Coinbase Advanced platform.Coinbase's Derivatives Move in EuropeThe new service is run through Coinbase's regulated entity operating under MiFID (Financial Instruments Directive) in Europe. This structure aims to offer crypto derivatives products in a safer and more transparent environment, as it operates in compliance with the regulatory framework used in traditional financial derivatives markets.Coinbase's move into Europe comes at a time when offshore platforms have long dominated the crypto derivatives market. A significant portion of European investors have so far traded through foreign-based platforms such as Binance, Bybit, or OKX. However, this situation has begun to change as the European Union's crypto asset regulation, MiCA, approaches full implementation. As part of the new products, investors will have access to futures contracts based on major crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. In addition, one of Coinbase's most notable innovations is a hybrid index contract called "Mag7 + Crypto Equity Index Futures." This product combines the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks – Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla – with crypto-related companies and BlackRock's Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in a single derivative product. According to Coinbase, this hybrid structure offers investors a different portfolio diversification opportunity by linking both technology stocks and crypto assets. Especially for institutional investors, this product can create an alternative exposure route for portfolios that cannot directly invest in crypto. The platform offers two different cash-settled futures contracts. The first is a long-term contract with a five-year maturity, operating similarly to perpetual contracts common on offshore crypto exchanges. These contracts use an hourly funding mechanism to keep the price aligned with the spot market and settle daily.The second type of product is dated contracts with monthly or quarterly maturities, similar to those used in traditional financial markets. These contracts are repriced daily and close with cash settlement at maturity.Coinbase also offers investors leverage of up to 10x on some crypto asset and index contracts. Leverage is around 5x on some other products. Transaction fees start at 0.02% per contract.On the other hand, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently issued a warning regarding crypto derivative products. The institution stated that many products marketed as "perpetual futures" may actually fall under the category of contracts for difference (CFDs), in which case rules such as leverage limits, risk warnings, and negative balance protection should apply.Coinbase's new service was launched during a period of these discussions. The company argues that the increasing regulatory clarity in Europe creates an important foundation for the development of new financial products. In its statement, Coinbase said this step is an important part of the company's vision of being "an exchange where everything can be bought and sold." In the long term, the company aims to build a multi-asset trading ecosystem where users can access both crypto assets and traditional financial products on the same platform.
Oil Shock and Global Risks are Pressuring Bitcoin: Price Affected
The cryptocurrency market started the new week cautiously. Bitcoin's price fell to the $66,000 level due to increasing geopolitical risks and the pressure created in global markets by the sharp rise in oil prices. The decrease in global risk appetite negatively affected not only crypto assets but also Asian stock markets.According to the latest data, Bitcoin lost approximately 1.87 percent in value in the last 24 hours, trading around $66,010. This level indicates a pullback of approximately 10 percent compared to the last peak of $73,500 recorded on March 5th. Thus, Bitcoin's price has returned to the levels before the short-lived rise last week.Market research company CryptoQuant had previously stated that last week's rise might be a "relief rally" rather than the beginning of a new bull cycle. Recent price movements seem to support this view.Oil prices created a shock effect in global marketsWith the escalation of geopolitical tensions, oil prices have recorded a rapid increase in recent weeks. The price of crude oil rose above $110 per barrel, showing a daily increase of approximately 22 percent. The increase over the past month has exceeded 70 percent.US President Donald Trump stated that the short-term increase in oil prices is "a small price to pay." Trump said that prices would rebalance once the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated.BTSE operations director Jeff Mei emphasized that oil prices could have far-reaching effects on the global economy. According to Mei, since oil is a basic input for many sectors, the increase in prices could trigger inflation and suppress global growth.Mei also stated that the decline in Bitcoin is largely due to these economic concerns. However, he noted that the cryptocurrency has shown more resilience compared to past bear markets. According to the analyst, this may be due to the increasing share of institutional investors in the market.Sharp declines in Asian stock marketsThe rise in oil prices and increasing uncertainties have also led to significant losses in Asian stock markets. Economies dependent on energy imports were particularly affected by these developments.Japan's leading stock market index, Nikkei, fell by approximately 7 percent on the first trading day of the week. South Korea's KOSPI index recorded a 7.9 percent drop. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell by 2.7 percent, and China's Shanghai Composite index lost 1.4 percent.In recent years, it has frequently been stated that Bitcoin's correlation with traditional financial markets has increased. Data also supports this relationship. The 30-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reached 88 percent as of March 6. ETF outflows and critical levelsAnother factor increasing pressure on Bitcoin was the outflow of money from spot Bitcoin ETFs. A total net outflow of $576.6 million occurred on Thursday and Friday of last week.
Critical Data Released from the US: How Did Bitcoin React?
The latest employment data from the US has presented a striking picture for global markets. The data released for February deviated significantly from economists' expectations, indicating an unexpected weakening in the US labor market. While an increase in non-farm payrolls was expected, the negative data came as a surprise to the markets.According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), non-farm employment decreased by 92,000 people in February. Market expectations were for an increase of approximately 55,000 people. The previous month's data showed an increase of 130,000 jobs. Thus, the strong performance seen in the US labor market in recent months has given way to a weaker picture than expected.The unemployment rate also rose above expectations. From 4.3% in January, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in February. Economists had expected unemployment to remain at the same level. This increase is interpreted as a signal that a gradual cooling has begun in the labor market. However, the upward trend in wages continues. Average annual earnings rose to 3.8%, slightly exceeding expectations. Market expectations were at 3.7%. The fact that wage increases continue to exceed inflation indicates that the US economy is still resilient in some areas.Surprise drop in employment surprised marketsThe US labor market had performed stronger than expected in recent months. The 130,000 increase in employment announced in January had temporarily pushed expectations of an economic slowdown into the background. This data led to interpretations that the US Federal Reserve might be more cautious about cutting interest rates. However, the February data could change this picture. The negative non-farm payrolls figure brought the possibility of a slowdown in economic activity back to the forefront. Analysts note that the strong data, especially at the beginning of the year, may have been due to seasonal factors.It was thought that temporary factors such as the holiday season and warmer weather increasing construction activity played a role in the stronger-than-expected employment increase in January. With these effects disappearing in February, a more realistic picture of the labor market may have emerged.Short-term fluctuations were observed in the cryptocurrency market following the weak employment data from the US. Minutes before the data release, the Bitcoin price fell from around $70,600 to the $69,800 range. Although a limited recovery was seen afterwards, a cautious outlook prevailed in the market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $70,593, showing a loss of approximately 2.79% in the last 24 hours. On the intraday chart, it is noteworthy that selling pressure increased after the data, and a rapid drop below the psychological level of $70,000 was observed. Critical Signals for Fed PolicyThis weakening in the US labor market may also affect investors' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Slower employment growth can be interpreted as the Fed being closer to interest rate cuts.Fed officials have long emphasized that a strong labor market keeps inflationary pressures alive. Therefore, a significant cooling in the employment market is considered an important development that could increase the likelihood of monetary policy easing.However, wage increases exceeding expectations presents a complex picture for the Fed. The continued rapid rise in wages has not completely eliminated concerns that inflation may be persistent.Crypto markets were cautious before the data release.The US employment data is considered an important indicator not only for traditional financial markets but also for cryptocurrency markets. This is because the Fed's interest rate policy can directly affect the price movements of crypto assets.Before the data was released, a cautious outlook prevailed in the crypto market. Bitcoin was trading around $70,900, having lost more than 1% in the last 24 hours. Similarly, limited pullbacks were seen in major altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.Analysts believe that weaker-than-expected employment data could create a positive catalyst for crypto markets in the medium term. A weaker labor market could increase the likelihood of the Fed moving towards interest rate cuts, which could be supportive for risky assets. However, the initial market reaction is expected to be quite volatile. Data that deviates from expectations can often lead to sharp short-term price movements in both traditional markets and crypto assets.
Kazakhstan Has Prepared a $350 Million Portfolio for Crypto Investments
The National Bank of Kazakhstan is preparing to take a new investment step towards the cryptocurrency and digital asset ecosystem. The bank plans to invest in crypto-related assets through a portfolio created with funds allocated from gold and foreign exchange reserves, which could reach up to $350 million in size. According to information reported by Reuters, this investment program will not involve direct large-scale cryptocurrency purchases. Instead, it will focus on technology companies operating in the digital asset sector, crypto-related financial products, and index funds.Kazakhstan National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov stated at an interest rate meeting in Almaty that work is underway to determine the investment instruments. Suleimenov emphasized that the portfolio will not consist solely of cryptocurrencies, and that financial instruments covering a broader segment of the digital asset ecosystem are being evaluated.The central bank prefers an indirect investment model in cryptoAmong the options being considered by the central bank are shares of high-tech companies operating in the crypto and digital finance sector, index funds that exhibit movements similar to the crypto market, and other financial instruments. This approach indicates that the bank prefers to pursue an indirect investment strategy in the crypto sector. The target timeframe for the start of the investments is quite near. Central Bank Deputy Governor Aliya Moldabekova announced that the investment program is planned to be launched in April or May. Moldabekova specifically emphasized that the bank does not intend to make large-scale direct investments in cryptocurrencies. The official stated that an evaluation process is currently underway to identify companies operating in the digital asset infrastructure field. This includes technology companies developing cryptocurrency infrastructure, blockchain-based financial service providers, and platforms supporting the digital asset ecosystem.Kazakhstan is among the countries aiming to take a more active role in the crypto and blockchain field in recent years. In particular, the spread of crypto mining activities in the country has shaped the government's policies towards the digital asset sector.Last June, the government brought up a plan to create a national crypto reserve to be financed with seized digital assets and coins obtained from state-backed mining activities. This plan is considered part of the country's strategy to strengthen its role in the digital asset ecosystem.In November, officials discussed the establishment of a separate crypto reserve fund that could reach a size of between $500 million and $1 billion. This fund is also planned to invest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and crypto-focused companies, rather than directly investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.The current reserve size of the National Bank of Kazakhstan also shows that the country has the capacity to support such investment programs. As of February 1, the total value of the bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves is $69.4 billion. The total size of the country's national wealth fund is stated as $65.2 billion.
$2.6 Billion Worth of BTC and ETH Options Expire Today
Today, attention in the cryptocurrency markets is focused on a large derivatives contract expiry. Option contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, totaling approximately $2.6 billion, expire today. This development is being evaluated alongside data showing investors maintaining a cautious stance despite the recent price recovery.Bitcoin enters the expiry date above approximately $70,000, while Ethereum is trading around $2,070. The main question in the market is whether this large option expiry will create short-term price volatility.Bitcoin options make up the majority of the expiryBitcoin constitutes the majority of the option contracts expiring today. Approximately 31,700 Bitcoin option contracts have reached expiry, with a total theoretical value of approximately $2.2 billion.The put/call ratio, one of the most important indicators in the options market, is at 1.7. This ratio shows that "put" options, representing a bearish outlook, are significantly higher than "call" options, representing a bullish outlook. In other words, many investors have taken positions against the possibility of prices falling in the short term. Another important level in the Bitcoin options market is the "max pain" point, calculated at $69,000. This level represents the price at which most option contracts expire worthless and often creates a short-term pull effect on the price on expiry dates.The fact that Bitcoin's spot price is approximately $1,700 above this level raises the question of whether the price will move towards this level as the expiry time approaches. The picture is more balanced on the Ethereum sideAlthough the option expiry date on the Ethereum side is smaller compared to Bitcoin, it is still of considerable size. Approximately 192,000 Ethereum option contracts expire today, and the total value of these contracts is around $380-400 million. The put/call ratio in Ethereum options is at 0.9, meaning the market is more balanced compared to Bitcoin. The "max pain" level set for ETH is approximately $1,950, which is about $120 below the current price.The total value of open positions in Ethereum options is approximately $7.5 billion.Cautious positioning despite the riseData from the options market shows that despite the recent recovery in prices, investors are not expecting a strong rise. According to the derivatives data platform Greeks.live, the selling of call options in particular has been noteworthy in the last two days.Investors selling call options aim to earn premium income with the expectation that the price will not rise above a certain level. This is generally interpreted as a sign that confidence in the upward momentum in the market is limited.
NYSE Owner ICE Has Invested in the Cryptocurrency Exchange OKX
The lines between traditional finance and crypto markets are becoming increasingly blurred. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), has made one of the most notable examples of this transformation by investing in the cryptocurrency exchange OKX. According to Fortune, the investment was made at a valuation of approximately $25 billion for OKX. While the financial details of the agreement were not disclosed, it was confirmed that ICE will obtain a seat on the OKX board of directors. This investment is not only a financial partnership; it is also seen as part of a broader strategy aimed at moving traditional securities to blockchain infrastructure. The parties' joint plan is to make tokenized versions of stocks and derivatives traded on the NYSE tradable through the OKX platform. Tokenization could be the new financial infrastructureThe concept of "tokenization," which is at the heart of the collaboration, is increasingly being discussed in the financial world. Tokenization means representing traditional financial assets, such as stocks, as digital tokens on blockchain networks. Proponents of this model state that it offers advantages such as reduced transaction costs and 24/7 global access to markets.According to the plans, OKX users will be able to buy and sell tokenized NYSE shares and derivatives directly through the platform. The project is targeted to be launched in the second half of 2026. Thus, the integration between cryptocurrency infrastructure and traditional financial markets can significantly accelerate.OKX's global managing partner, Haider Rafique, stated that the two institutions have achieved a strong alignment in their tokenization vision. According to Rafique, both the traditional finance and digital asset sectors will work more closely together on the same infrastructure in the future. Therefore, the partnership between the two companies is considered not only a technology sharing but also a strategic step towards the evolution of financial markets.Crypto data will be integrated into ICE infrastructureAnother important aspect of the agreement is data sharing. OKX will provide ICE with real-time price data of crypto assets traded on its platform. This data is expected to be used in ICE's data and analytics services. Thus, traditional financial institutions will be able to access more comprehensive and real-time information about crypto markets. On the other hand, OKX users will also be able to access ICE's US futures markets and tokenized NYSE assets. This represents a significant expansion for the OKX ecosystem, which has approximately 120 million users.ICE's crypto strategy is gaining momentumIntercontinental Exchange has been increasingly interested in the crypto sector in recent years. The company had previously announced that it was working on various projects to develop blockchain-based financial infrastructures. In announcements made in January, it was stated that ICE was developing its own blockchain-based transaction infrastructure for tokenized securities. In addition, the company attracted attention by announcing a $2 billion investment plan in the prediction market platform Polymarket by the end of 2025. This agreement brought Polymarket to a valuation of approximately $9 billion at that time.
Morgan Stanley selected BNY and Coinbase for its Bitcoin ETF
US-based investment giant Morgan Stanley has taken a significant step towards a new Bitcoin-focused investment product. The company has submitted a prospectus detailing the structure of its proposed Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust fund to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The application, filed via Form S-1, contains important details about how the fund's Bitcoin assets will be held and how the ETF's operational structure will function. According to the application, Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust fund plans to commission two major institutions for the custody of the digital assets. Specifically, Coinbase Custody and Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) will provide Bitcoin custody services for the fund. Both institutions will be responsible for securely storing the fund's Bitcoin holdings and performing the necessary transfer transactions when creating or redeeming fund shares. Custody structure compliant with institutional standardsAccording to the information in the application, Morgan Stanley has structured the fund's custody infrastructure to match the security standards used by traditional financial institutions. In this context, the majority of the fund's Bitcoin holdings will be held in offline vaults known as cold storage. Cold storage significantly reduces the risk of cyberattacks by ensuring that private keys are completely isolated from internet connectivity. This aims to protect digital assets from online attacks. However, in situations such as the creation of fund shares or investors selling their shares back, a small portion of the Bitcoins may be temporarily transferred to transaction wallets to allow for necessary transactions.The document also states that insurance is included in the custody service. However, it is noted that this insurance policy is shared with other Coinbase Custody clients and may not cover all potential losses. This is a common practice in digital asset custody services.BNY's role in the ETF is extensiveIn Morgan Stanley's planned Bitcoin ETF structure, BNY Mellon will not only provide custody services. The bank will also undertake critical tasks in the fund's management operations.BNY will act as an administrator to manage and manage the fund's management and accounting processes. It will also maintain investor records and manage transactions related to fund shares in its role as a transfer agent. The bank will also act as a cash custodian, managing cash flows related to ETF transactions.This structure indicates that a system quite similar to the institutional operational model seen in traditional ETFs will be established.It is stated that Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust will be designed as a passive investment vehicle. This means that the fund aims to directly track Bitcoin price movements.The fund will not use derivatives or leveraged transactions to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Instead, it will hold Bitcoin in its portfolio by purchasing it directly. Thus, investors will be able to invest in the Bitcoin price indirectly through the ETF.The fund's daily net asset value (NAV) will be calculated using the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark 4PM New York Settlement Rate as a reference. This index combines trading data from major spot cryptocurrency exchanges to determine a daily reference price for Bitcoin.
Crypto exchange Kraken opens the door to the Fed: A turning point
The cryptocurrency sector has crossed another significant threshold on its path to integration with the traditional financial system. Kraken, a US-based cryptocurrency exchange, has become the first crypto company to gain access to the Federal Reserve's core payment infrastructure. According to the Wall Street Journal, the company's banking arm, Kraken Financial, received approval for a special account known as a "master account" from the Fed. This development is seen as a historic step for the sector in terms of accessing financial infrastructure, something crypto companies have been striving for for years. Thanks to this approval, Kraken will be able to transact directly with payment systems used by thousands of banks and credit unions in the US.Direct access to the Fedwire systemThe master account authorization granted to Kraken Financial allows the company direct access to the Federal Reserve's Fedwire interbank payment system. Fedwire is known as the main financial infrastructure in the US where large-scale and time-critical payments are processed between banks. This access will allow Kraken to process money transfers faster and more efficiently, especially for institutional clients and professional investors. Instead of multi-layered transactions through traditional banking channels, the company can now use the central bank's payment network directly. According to Kraken, this will allow large clients to transfer funds faster and contribute to more efficient liquidity management in the crypto markets. The acceleration of payment processes is seen as a significant advantage, especially for institutional investors who conduct high-volume transactions.On the other hand, Kraken's access does not include all the advantages enjoyed by traditional banks. The company will not be able to benefit from certain banking privileges, such as earning interest income on reserves held at the central bank. Nevertheless, many experts in the sector believe that this approval is extremely important both symbolically and structurally.A historic milestone in the crypto sectorWyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, a crypto-friendly figure in the US Senate, described the development as a "historic turning point" for the digital asset sector. According to Lummis, the ability of crypto companies to access the Federal Reserve system could pave the way for the sector to gain a more permanent and institutional place in the financial system.Crypto companies have been attempting to gain access to the US central bank's payment systems for many years. However, these requests have mostly been rejected due to regulatory uncertainties and the banking system's cautious approach. Kraken Financial's master account verification stands out as the first example to change this picture. It is believed that this development could strengthen similar access requests from other crypto companies in the future.The crypto sector's outlook in the US has changed significantly under the Donald Trump administration. Trump openly stated his goal of making the US the "crypto capital of the world," and the appointment of regulators more welcoming to digital assets increased expectations in the sector.
Bitcoin Surpasses $71,000: What's Behind the Rise?
Bitcoin surged above $71,000 despite rising geopolitical tensions in global markets. Gaining over 6% in the last 24 hours, the leading cryptocurrency has revitalized not only the crypto market but also global financial circles. This surge is particularly noteworthy given the increased tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty in the energy market.According to market data, Bitcoin reached its highest level in about a month, surpassing $71,000 during European trading hours. During the same period, major crypto assets such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) also gained between 4% and 6%. Bitcoin Resilience Amid Geopolitical CrisisThis rise in Bitcoin occurred under the shadow of rising tensions in the Middle East. Iran's blocking of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transit point for global oil trade, created significant uncertainty in energy markets. The possibility of rising oil prices also brought global inflation expectations back to the forefront. Despite this, Bitcoin's price performance has shown remarkable resilience. Since the weekend when tensions between Israel and the US and Iran escalated, Bitcoin's downward movement has been limited to around $65,000. Analysts believe this could signal a shift in investors' perception of crypto assets.According to some market observers, Bitcoin is beginning to exhibit "defensive asset" characteristics, albeit limited, during times of crisis. A daily market bulletin published by Tagus Capital stated that Bitcoin is a more resilient but still high-risk alternative compared to traditional safe havens.Gold pulls back while Bitcoin takes the leadGold, which investors usually turn to during global crises, has retreated somewhat in recent days. After peaking above $5,400 at the beginning of the week, the price of gold per ounce fell to around $5,160. This shows that the classic safe haven perception in the markets can change from time to time. On the other hand, sales accelerated in Asian stock markets due to concerns about rising energy costs. While many Asian markets, including South Korea's Kospi index, declined, the crypto market saw a strong rise. Technical Outlook: Is the Accumulation Process Ending?Significant signals are emerging for Bitcoin on the technical analysis front. According to market data, the BTC price gained rapid momentum during Asian trading hours, surpassing critical technical levels. These include the 200-week exponential moving average and the 2021 all-time high of $69,000.Some analysts believe that a long-running "accumulation process" in the market may be nearing its end. According to technical analyst Lars Kooistra, Bitcoin is currently at a critical decision point. If the price remains strongly above the upper limit of the current range, a new uptrend could begin. However, in the opposite scenario, i.e., if the resistance level is rejected, a deeper correction may be possible.Other market commentators paint a more optimistic picture. Popular crypto analyst Moustache argues that Bitcoin has successfully retested its all-time high of 2021, and this could be the beginning of a new bull cycle. According to the analyst, in such a scenario, the altcoin market could follow Bitcoin and perform more strongly.
