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Bitcoin retreated to just above $107,000, partly due to tensions between the US and China. This market decline suggests that investors are increasingly risk-averse in the face of uncertain macroeconomic developments and rising tensions between the US and China. Investors are particularly excited ahead of US President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. Data suggests that crypto investors have begun to reduce their positions.According to market data, Bitcoin price has fallen 2.44 percent in the last 24 hours, falling to $107,830. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has seen a 3.7 percent weekly loss. After a brief recovery at the beginning of the week, BTC has tested the $111,200 level, and is experiencing renewed selling pressure. Some analysts predict this volatility will continue in the short term. For example, according to BTSE COO Jeff Mei, "macro concerns are currently driving the market's daily movements." According to Mei, volatility will continue as trade tensions between the US and China continue. Mei emphasized that the main reason for the decline was investors reducing their positions ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. The meeting is expected to take place in South Korea at the end of the month. “The possibility of an agreement at the end of the month could temporarily calm the markets, but it is unlikely that the tension will completely disappear,” he added. He also stated, “The biggest risk for crypto markets today is the unpredictability of macro developments. Even a single tweet can move prices up or down. The most logical thing investors can do is diversify their portfolios and hedge against uncertainty.”What's the latest on the crypto market?These macro pressures affected not only Bitcoin but also leading altcoins. Ethereum fell 4.77 percent to $3,855, while BNB traded at a 5.36 percent loss. Solana also fell 4.6 percent. Outflows from spot crypto ETFs also continued. According to market data, there were net outflows of $40.5 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs and $145.7 million from spot Ethereum ETFs. Last week, BTC ETFs had their worst weekly outflow of recent times, with a net outflow of $1.23 billion.The weak performance of both individual and institutional investors indicates a deterioration in market sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 29, in "fear" territory. Meanwhile, investors are focusing on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released this week. This data is critical for understanding the inflation trend. The market believes that if the data is weak, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this month increases. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, this probability is priced in at 98.9%.Will trade tensions spill over into geopolitical areas? There's talk that the tensions in US-China relations may not be limited to trade but could spill over into geopolitical areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan. The Trump administration has issued stern warnings against China's imposition of sanctions on companies investing in US-based strategic industries. China's recent restrictions on the US branches of South Korea's Hanwha Ocean have ignited a new economic conflict between the two countries centered on maritime and defense industries.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold a "Payments Innovation Conference" on October 21st to discuss the future of new technologies in the payments field. The event will discuss Bitcoin, stablecoins, and blockchain-based payment systems. This development is considered a significant turning point in the US approach to the role of digital assets within the financial system.Fed Discusses CryptocurrenciesAccording to a statement released by the Fed on September 3rd, the conference will bring together regulators, financial institutions, and technology experts on October 21st. The main themes of the event will be the intersection of traditional and decentralized finance, stablecoin use cases, the impact of artificial intelligence on payments, and the tokenization of financial products. Fed official Christopher J. Waller, who will speak at the conference's opening, said, "Innovation in payments has always existed to meet the changing needs of consumers and businesses. Now is the time to examine the opportunities and challenges of these technologies together." This statement signals a shift in the US Federal Reserve's tone toward digital assets, which it has long distanced from. Until now, Bitcoin and stablecoins were largely viewed as speculative investment instruments or elements posing regulatory risks. However, the Fed's decision to address these assets in conjunction with the future of the financial system at an official event is being interpreted as a paradigmatic shift. Clarifying the regulatory framework for the use of stablecoins in payments could pave the way for new opportunities for both financial institutions and technology companies.The crypto community sees this step by the Fed as a hope that, in the long term, digital assets will gain a more institutional footing in the US financial system. The event's agenda is not limited to cryptocurrencies. Tokenization, AI-powered payment systems, and decentralized financial infrastructures will also be among the topics to be discussed. Experts believe these issues could pave the way for the Fed's future steps in the field of digital currencies and payments. The implications regarding the oversight of stablecoins and their role in interbank payments are particularly significant for the sector. Immediately following this meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, will be closely watched by markets. Economists predict the Fed may consider cutting interest rates at this meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell stated last month that the bank has shifted to a "more neutral policy stance." However, there is still no consensus among members on the interest rate range encompassed by "neutral."This softening of the Fed's stance on cryptocurrencies could be a turning point in terms of both regulatory clarity and institutional participation. The official discussion of Bitcoin and stablecoins within payment systems is seen as a signal that a new chapter may be opening in US policies toward digital assets.
Strategy, one of the largest institutional investors in Bitcoin, has once again increased its holdings. Between October 13th and 19th, the company purchased 168 Bitcoins at an average price of $112,051. Approximately $18.8 million was spent on this transaction, bringing the company's total Bitcoin holdings to 640,418. This amount represents more than 3% of Bitcoin's maximum supply of 21 million.Strategy Holds a Large Amount of BitcoinStrategy's total Bitcoin holdings are approximately $47.4 billion. According to co-founder and CEO Michael Saylor, these holdings are worth around $71 billion at current prices. This means the company has over $23 billion in paper revenue. These purchases were financed with proceeds from the firm's perpetual preferred stock sales.The company has recently been raising funds through these special types of stock, known as STRK, STRF, and STRD. STRK, a convertible stock with an 8% dividend yield, offers investors higher return potential. STRF offers a more stable structure with a 10% cumulative dividend. STRD, on the other hand, is non-convertible and offers a 10% dividend yield, offering a higher risk-return profile. Furthermore, Strategy aims to raise a total of $84 billion in capital by 2027 with a new strategy it calls the "42/42 plan." This plan is an expanded version of the firm's initial $42 billion "21/21" program.Strategy's aggressive Bitcoin purchase program is still a matter of debate in the traditional finance world. However, Michael Saylor argues that in the long term, Bitcoin will be the digital equivalent of the dollar. Last week, Saylor signaled new purchases in a post on his X account, saying, "The most important orange dot is always the next one." Following this announcement, the company announced another purchase of 220 BTC. According to market data, 190 publicly traded companies currently hold Bitcoin reserves. Strategy is the clear leader in this field, followed by Marathon Digital with 53,250 BTC, Tether-backed Twenty One with 43,514 BTC, Metaplanet with 30,823 BTC, and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company with 30,021 BTC. Other major institutional holders include Riot Platforms, Trump Media & Technology Group, CleanSpark, and Coinbase. While the number of these companies is growing, their shares have been declining in recent months. Strategy stock is down 36% from its summer peak. Nevertheless, the company continues to view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. As Michael Saylor has previously noted, Strategy's capital structure is designed to withstand even a 90% drop in Bitcoin's price. However, Saylor acknowledges that "shareholders would suffer" in such a scenario.
The final trading day of the week in crypto markets is marked by intense stress. With approximately $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today, investors have strengthened their defensive positions against the long-anticipated downward wave. According to Deribit data, $4.8 billion worth of contracts are expiring on the Bitcoin side. The put-call ratio is at 0.83, indicating higher demand for put options than for calls.Critical Levels for Bitcoin and ETHBitcoin is trading around $105,000. While the price is struggling to hold just above key support levels, data from the futures and options markets indicate a weak outlook in the short term. The "maximum pain," or the level where investors will face the most losses, is around $116,000. This level confirms that expectations for an upward movement in the market are weak, as it suggests that many contracts will expire worthless. The outlook for Ethereum is similar. ETH is trading around $3,700, while the $4,100 level represents a significant threshold, both technically and from an options perspective. With more than 250,000 ETH contracts expiring, the put-call ratio is at 0.81. This ratio suggests that the majority of investors are opting for downside hedging strategies. One of the main reasons for the recent market unrest is the $50 million loss suffered by Selini Capital. The fund's significant loss due to a failed derivatives transaction has created a cascading anxiety among market makers. The cautious approach of liquidity providers, in particular, has led to a significant decline in trading volumes.Macroeconomic developments are also impacting cryptocurrencies.Global political and economic uncertainties have also added to this picture. The Trump administration's volatile statements on trade and energy policies have almost completely suppressed risk appetite. Investors are turning to hedging positions again as uncertainty grows. This "political noise" is seen as one of the main reasons for the selling pressure on crypto assets. Analysts consider $93,500 a potential bottom for Bitcoin, with $100,000 representing a short-term recovery threshold. However, current data suggests the market will remain sideways and tense for some time before approaching these levels.The negative trend seen in the options market suggests that investors are preparing for increased volatility. Put-heavy trading increases the likelihood of further price declines. However, some investors are aiming to capitalize on short-term rebounds by selling put options near the bottom after this sharp sell-off.The overall picture suggests a cautious approach in the crypto market. As long as the flood crisis subsides and the macroeconomic picture remains clear, a recovery in risk appetite appears unlikely. Options data also suggests that the market's next major move could still be downward.
A sell-off continues in the cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin fell to $105,000 as of the morning of October 17th, its lowest level since early September. This decline was fueled by both the re-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China and signals of weakness in US regional banks. Ether fell 1.5% to $3,928, while other major cryptocurrencies such as BNB, XRP, and Solana followed suit. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, fell to 22, indicating that investors are in the "extreme fear" zone. This sentiment is also paralleled by the uncertainty in US stock markets.Statements regarding bad loans from regional banks in the US, particularly Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp, have brought the fragility of the financial system back into the spotlight. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump's statement, "We are in a trade war with China," has created a new wave in the markets. These statements have created selling pressure on all risk assets, from stocks to crypto. Presto Research analyst Min Jung said, “The market is completely driven by headlines surrounding the US-China trade war. The state of regional banks is also damaging investor confidence.” Vincent Liu, investment director at Kronos Research, commented, “While BTC and ETH are more resilient than stocks, any macro shock can quickly reverse the market due to low liquidity.”JPMorgan explains the reason behind the decline in Bitcoin and altcoinsHowever, according to JPMorgan analysts, the main reason for this sharp decline in recent weeks is crypto-specific investor behavior rather than external developments. The bank's analysts note that last week's liquidations largely came from "crypto-native" traders, while traditional ETF investors and institutional players did not sell heavily during this period.According to JPMorgan data, there was a net outflow of only $220 million from Bitcoin ETFs and $370 million from Ethereum ETFs between October 10-14. These figures represent a very small fraction of total assets under management. In contrast, open interest in the perpetual futures market, which is heavily used by crypto investors, fell by 40% in dollar terms. Analysts describe this data as "a wave of liquidations sharper than price declines."Last week, markets experienced the largest liquidation in history, wiping out more than $20 billion in leveraged positions. The closing of over 1.5 million positions in just one week shook the market. Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,000. JPMorgan predicts that interest rate cuts or new spot ETF approvals could spark a recovery in the fourth quarter, but volatility will remain high in the short term.
Consecutive outflows from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the US have deepened the selling pressure in the crypto market. Bitcoin fell below $112,000 on Tuesday, extending its two-day decline. Analysts say both ETF outflows and the reduction in positions in derivatives markets are dampening investors' risk appetite.Bitcoin Price FallsMarket data shows Bitcoin's daily loss exceeded 3%, with the broader market following a similar pattern. Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, BNB, linked to the Binance ecosystem, suffered one of the sharpest declines, losing nearly double-digit value. At the beginning of the week, spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in the US recorded a total net outflow of $755 million. According to SoSoValue data, $326.5 million came from Bitcoin ETFs and $428.5 million from Ethereum ETFs. Grayscale's GBTC fund withdrew $145 million, Bitwise's BITB fund withdrew $115 million, while funds from Fidelity, Ark&21Shares, and VanEck also suffered losses. BlackRock's IBIT fund alone reported $60 million in inflows. On the Ethereum side, BlackRock's ETHA fund alone saw $310 million outflows—the fund's second-worst performance since launch."Monday's outflows reflect the cautious atmosphere following the massive liquidations," said Vincent Liu, investment director at Kronos Research. "Investors are currently awaiting clearer macro signals. Sentiment and risk perception, rather than fundamentals, are driving pricing."Last weekend, US President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports triggered one of the largest crypto liquidations in history. Bitcoin tested below $105,000 as more than $500 billion in market value was wiped out. While prices later saw a partial recovery after Trump softened his rhetoric, institutional investors remain cautious.BRN research director Timothy Misir noted that ETF outflows accelerated and open interest plummeted: "Leverage has decreased, forcing the market to become defensive in the short term." According to DeFiLlama data, total open interest on derivatives exchanges fell from $26 billion to less than $14 billion; DEX trading volume hit a record $177 billion, and lending fees exceeded $20 million in a single day.QCP Capital emphasized that US-China trade tensions played a significant role in the recent decline. In addition to the 100% tariff decision, China's export restrictions also fueled panic selling. According to CoinGlass data, $511 million in long positions were liquidated on October 14th alone, sending Bitcoin down to $110,000.Risk aversion has also become evident in the options market. Derive founder Nick Forster reported that investors are turning to near-term put options, with a surge in put buying for October 31st at $115,000 and $95,000. The prominence of selling in call positions for October 17th at $125,000 suggests a negative outlook in the short term.According to Forster, the most important factor determining the future direction will be whether inflows in spot markets will strengthen again. "The market is currently lacking institutional demand. It's difficult to gain upward momentum without new inflows," he said.China's statement Tuesday morning that "we will fight the trade war to the end" has once again intensified market tensions. Bitcoin fell 3.25 percent to below $112,000, while Ethereum fell 3.39 percent to $4,030.
Institutional Bitcoin investor Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to grow its Bitcoin holdings with a new acquisition. Between October 6th and 12th, the company spent approximately $27.2 million by purchasing an additional 220 BTC at an average price of $123,561. This brings the company's total Bitcoin holdings to 640,250 BTC.Strategy's Bitcoin AcquisitionMichael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of the board, stated that these acquisitions were made at an average cost of $74,000 per Bitcoin. Strategy's total investment amount is $47.4 billion, and at current prices, this portfolio is worth around $73 billion. This figure represents approximately 3% of the total supply of 21 million Bitcoin. The company carries approximately $25.6 billion in unrealized profits on this holding. The new acquisitions were financed with proceeds from the sale of Strategy's continuously issued preferred stock. These stock series, codenamed STRK, STRF, and STRD, were launched as part of the company's massive Bitcoin acquisition strategy. STRK, a convertible stock yielding 8% dividends, allows investors to share in the stock's growth. STRF, with its 10% dividend and non-convertible structure, offers a more conservative profile. STRD, with its 10% dividend but non-convertible structure, is considered the stock type with the highest risk-reward balance.These shares are part of the company's $84 billion capital increase strategy, known as the "42/42 Plan." Strategy aims to grow its Bitcoin holdings through both stock and bond issuances by 2027.Strategy Leads BTC Treasury CompaniesAccording to market data, 188 publicly traded companies worldwide hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Strategy tops this list; It is followed by Marathon Digital (52,850 BTC), Tether-backed Twenty One (43,514 BTC), Metaplanet (30,823 BTC), Bitcoin Standard Treasury (30,021 BTC), and Riot Platforms (24,300 BTC).The company generated $3.89 billion in unrealized profits from its digital asset portfolio in the third quarter. At the end of the same period, it recorded a $1.12 billion deferred tax expense and a total tax liability of $7.43 billion.The price of Bitcoin dipped below $105,000 after a sharp sell-off last week. However, it recovered at the beginning of the week, rising above $114,000. Saylor, in a social media post over the weekend, stated that the buying would continue, saying, "Don't Stop ₿elievin'" (don't stop believing). Strategy shares closed down 4.8 percent at $304.79 on Friday, down 13.1 percent for the week. Despite this, the company remains committed to its long-term strategy, aligning with Bitcoin's price.
Despite last Friday's major market crash, crypto investment products had a strong week. According to CoinShares data, digital asset investment funds recorded a total net inflow of $3.17 billion over the last seven days. This brings the total amount of money entering funds throughout 2025 to $48.7 billion, surpassing last year's record.US President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs on China was the driving force behind the sharp market fluctuations. This triggered a global sell-off, quickly liquidating over $20 billion in positions. However, James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that Friday's panic selling had limited impact on funds: "Despite the sharp market correction, there was only a weak outflow of $159 million on Friday."Trading volumes hit recordsAnother noteworthy piece of data in the report was the record increase in trading volume. Weekly trading volume for crypto investment products reached $53 billion, with $15.3 billion in transactions on Friday alone. This figure is twice the 2025 average. However, total assets under management (AUM) decreased by 7% on a weekly basis, falling from $254 billion to $242 billion.Bitcoin funds took the leadThe highest inflows throughout the week occurred in Bitcoin-focused investment products. $2.67 billion flowed into Bitcoin funds, bringing the total inflow since the beginning of the year to $30.2 billion. However, this figure is still approximately 30% below the $41.7 billion total in 2024. Butterfill also emphasized that trading volumes reached an all-time high of $10.4 billion during Friday's price correction.Ethereum investment products also managed to close the week positively. ETH funds saw $338 million inflows, while Ethereum also experienced the largest individual loss of the week, with a single-day outflow of $172 million on Friday. Butterfill stated that investors considered Ether products "the most vulnerable asset" during the market crash. Altcoin funds slowedA significant slowdown was observed in leading altcoin investment products like Solana and XRP. Solana funds saw inflows of $93.3 million, while XRP funds saw inflows of $61.6 million. These figures were significantly lower than the previous week's massive inflows of $706.5 million and $219 million, respectively. Despite this decline, experts believe that the expected Solana and XRP ETF approvals in the US could generate new momentum in the market. However, as long as the current government shutdown continues, these approvals are likely to be delayed. Currently, at least 16 crypto ETF applications are awaiting approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, "a flood of spot crypto ETFs will be expected" as the government reopens.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have staged a remarkable recovery after the sharp decline over the weekend. The sell-off that began on Friday led to the largest liquidations in crypto history to date. However, analysts believe the bullish sentiment dubbed "Uptober" hasn't completely faded; the market is regaining its footing after a short-lived shock.$19.1 billion in cryptocurrency positions liquidatedAccording to Coinglass data, more than 1.6 million investors liquidated positions on Friday alone, closing a total of $19.1 billion. Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000, while Ethereum fell to $3,500. This sharp decline was triggered by macroeconomic developments. China's new restrictions on rare earth exports and the US's retaliatory announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese technology products have shaken global risk perception. This news, arriving just as markets were closed, combined with low liquidity over the weekend, led to a cascade of liquidations. Presto Research researcher Rick Maeda stated that the crash was “not a crypto-specific panic, but a macro-driven liquidation wave.” According to Maeda, the sell-offs amplified by low trading volumes over the weekend, leading to billions of dollars in forced liquidations. “A purge of this scale has de-leveraged the system. The rise we’re seeing now is a result of this mechanical process,” he said. He added that investors aren’t overly concerned about the US-China tariffs: “Polymarket data only prices in a 15% chance that these tariffs will take effect by November 1st. This suggests the market views these risks as limited.”Bitcoin at $115,000Bitcoin’s price has stabilized after the weekend’s sharp sell-off, trading at $115,220 at the beginning of the week. Ethereum is also trading at $4,163, up 0.3% in the last 24 hours. The rest of the market is also showing signs of a slight recovery; BNB rose 1.9 percent to $1.327, while XRP rose 8.2 percent to $2.59. Solana is trading around $196. The total market capitalization has risen again above $2.3 trillion, with trading volumes reaching $91.9 billion for Bitcoin and $60 billion for Ethereum. Analyst Vincent Liu interpreted this recovery as a sign of "recovering risk appetite following panic selling." According to Kronos Research's investment director, the reduction in leverage and easing of tariff concerns have "re-encouraged the market." Liu said, "Traders are currently monitoring factors such as tariffs, technical trend lines, and dollar strength to test whether Bitcoin can sustain this upward trend."Nassar Achkar, CoinW's strategy director, maintains that the "Uptober" trend is still alive. He believes investors are now focused on macroeconomic indicators, particularly the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Fed's interest rate decision, for direction. "ETF flows also indicate continued institutional interest in the market, suggesting a sustained recovery," he added.LVRG Research director Nick Ruck also noted the promising on-chain data. According to Ruck, whales have reaccumulated in many assets, particularly Ethereum. "Technical indicators are signaling a strong reversal from oversold territory. This confirms the bottoms for many altcoins," he said.Despite this, Maeda believes the scars of the market's "trauma" will not fade easily. "We are facing the largest liquidation event in crypto history. This will have a lasting impact on investor psychology. The market is now much more sensitive to macro shocks, especially the US-China trade tension," he warned.Looking at the overall picture, the crypto market is seeking stability again after a period of significant volatility. The "Uptober" sentiment has been dashed, but it hasn't completely faded. Deleveraging, on-chain buying, and institutional inflows from ETFs are creating cautious optimism in the short term. Bitcoin holding steady around $115,000 and Ethereum holding above $4,000 suggest investors are regaining confidence for now.
Volatility in the crypto market could rise again this weekend. According to Deribit data, a total of $5.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are expiring today. This development both increases uncertainty about price direction and suggests that sharp market movements are possible heading into the weekend.Critical level for Bitcoin: $118,000Bitcoin options account for the majority of this massive expiration volume. A total of $4.7 billion worth of contracts are set to expire today. According to analysts, the "maximum pain" level in the market before this expiration, or the price at which option buyers incur the most losses, is around $118,000. This level is also seen as a key short-term support level for Bitcoin. Deribit data shows that Bitcoin investors' positions are split in two: one group is focused on $110,000 worth of put options, while the other maintains bullish expectations with $120,000 worth of calls. This imbalance could pave the way for sharp price movements heading into the weekend.Bitcoin's put/call ratio in the options market is currently at 1.10. This ratio suggests that investors are seeking some downside protection, but the overall outlook remains balanced.More optimistic sentiment prevails on EthereumThe outlook for Ethereum is slightly more positive. Approximately $944.5 million worth of ETH options will expire today. Ethereum's put/call ratio is at 0.90, meaning there are more buy positions than sell positions. This suggests investors believe in short-term upside potential.The maximum pain level for Ethereum is $4,400. A price hold above this level could bolster market confidence for the weekend. However, a drop below $4,300 could increase the likelihood of a short-term correction.Liquidity decreases and volatility increasesLarge-scale option expirations can cause sudden directional changes in the spot market. This is because many investors are forced to close or rebalance their positions after expiration. This, in turn, increases price volatility with high volumes of transactions on both the buy and sell sides.Glassnode's latest data reveals that Bitcoin is still trading above its short-term investor cost floor. While this suggests continued upward momentum, it also poses the risk of market overheating. According to analysts, it is critical for the price to maintain the $118,000 support level; otherwise, liquidations in leveraged positions may occur.On the Ethereum side, the increase in open interest indicates that institutional and individual investors are reshaping their market expectations. This makes determining the direction in the short term even more difficult.With the expiration of a total of $5.6 billion in options, the price of both Bitcoin and Ethereum may experience short-term sharp price movements. Historically, the market has experienced high volatility for several days following such large expiration periods. Experts predict that Bitcoin could rally back to $120,000 and above if it manages to hold above $118,000, while Ethereum has the potential to rally toward $4,750 as long as it stays above $4,400. However, a breakdown of these support levels could see further selling pressure in the market throughout the weekend.
US-based digital asset management company Bitwise predicts that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will experience record inflows in the fourth quarter of the year. The company believes this momentum could even surpass the total in 2024.Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicted at the beginning of the year that Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2025 would surpass the $36 billion launch period in 2024. Approximately $22.5 billion has flowed into these products so far, and they are expected to reach $30 billion by year-end. However, in his latest investor note, Hougan stated that this figure could be much higher, with a particularly strong wave of inflows expected in the final quarter of the year.Three Key Factors Supporting the Fourth QuarterAccording to the Bitwise report, three main factors are fueling this expectation: Bitcoin ETF approvals by asset management firms, the recent surge in Bitcoin prices, and the "debasement trading" narrative.Morgan Stanley recently adopted a new policy allowing limited investments in crypto assets. The bank offered a 0% Bitcoin ETF allocation for cautious investors and a 2% to 4% allocation for those with a higher risk tolerance. Wells Fargo also offered its advisors access to Bitcoin ETFs. Major players like UBS and Merrill Lynch are expected to join the group. According to Bitwise, these moves signal significant pent-up demand among advisors and portfolio managers.The "value erosion" narrative is gaining tractionHougan noted that gold and Bitcoin have become the two strongest asset classes this year. While the US money supply has increased by 44% since 2020, investors are turning to assets that retain their value during periods when governments weaken their currencies. JPMorgan also highlighted this trend in its latest report. As year-end portfolio reviews approach, many financial advisors are reportedly aiming to capitalize on this performance by adding gold and Bitcoin to their clients' portfolios. Inflows increase as price risesBitwise noted that historically, when Bitcoin's price increases by double digits, billions of dollars also flow into ETFs. In early October, Bitcoin rose 9% to a new record high of over $125,000. Following a slight correction, it currently trades around $122,744. Hougan says this performance has rekindled investor interest and laid the groundwork for a strong final quarter.$3.5 billion inflows in the first four daysAccording to Bitwise data, $3.5 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs occurred in the first four trading days of the fourth quarter. This brings the total inflow since the beginning of the year to $25.9 billion. "We have 64 days until the end of the year. Another $10 billion needs to come in, and I think we'll go beyond that," Hougan said.As of Tuesday, ETFs added $875.6 million to this amount. BlackRock's IBIT fund led the day with $899.4 million in inflows. The day before, on Monday, ETFs had recorded their largest daily inflow since Donald Trump's November 2024 election victory: a whopping $1.21 billion.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Board Member Stephen Miran reiterated the need for a more rapid and deep interest rate cut, sparking a new wave of optimism in the cryptocurrency markets. Miran's remarks reignited ongoing discussions within the Fed, which has long maintained a tight monetary policy. Investors, believing this stance meant liquidity could increase sooner than expected, fueled their appetite for buying crypto assets.Speaking at the "Managed Funds Association Policy Outlook 2025" event held in New York on Tuesday, October 7th, Miran stated that the "neutral interest rate" had fallen compared to last year. He noted that this situation made the current policy stance "more restrictive than expected," and warned that keeping interest rates high for an extended period could lead to an unnecessary slowdown. In his view, the appropriate interest rate range should be around 2.0–2.5 percent, well below the current 4.00–4.25 percent.What was the inflation statement? Miran stated, "I'm more optimistic than many others about inflation," arguing that the slowdown in the housing market and population dynamics would continue to reduce price pressures. He noted that he estimated the true neutral interest rate to be around 0.5 percent, but added that this rate cannot be measured directly, so policymakers should remain cautious. He also noted that artificial intelligence technologies could raise the neutral interest rate by increasing productivity in the long run, but current data does not yet reflect this effect.Miran's "dovish" approach contrasts sharply with last year's hawkish stance. Miran, who opposed interest rate cuts at the time, attributes this policy shift to the transformation of immigration, fiscal policy, and general economic dynamics. Rising public spending and expanding labor supply, in his view, now necessitate a more relaxed stance.The day before Miran's speech, Bitcoin reached $126,000. However, following the announcement, it fell 2.6 percent to $121,500. At the time of writing, it's trading around $122,800. Ethereum retreated to the $4,450 range after testing $4,750. BNB, on the other hand, rose 8%, becoming the week's standout altcoin. Despite short-term market fluctuations, analysts say Miran's statements could be supportive for crypto assets in the medium term. This is because a low interest rate environment typically weakens the dollar, increasing demand for risky, low-yield assets.If interest rate cuts are implemented, stablecoin yields and DeFi lending rates could decline; however, increased liquidity could offset this effect by stimulating on-chain activity. Furthermore, the $14 billion in institutional capital that entered spot Bitcoin ETFs in the third quarter of this year is expected to continue. This could rekindle interest in digital assets, particularly from large funds.Miran's remarks resonated within the crypto community, with comments like "Is the era of liquidity returning?" However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and some members remain cautious. Powell notes that the risk of persistent inflation could delay interest rate cuts. Still, Miran's call for a more lenient monetary policy has bolstered expectations of a more comfortable macroeconomic environment by the end of the year. For crypto investors, this could mean a resurgence of both market confidence and risk appetite.
The crypto market is heating up again. This time, GraniteShares is taking the stage. The US-based investment company has launched a plan for 3x leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for XRP, Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. This means investors will now be able to take leveraged positions on both upside and downside of these major crypto assets with up to three times the leverage. 3x leveraged ETFs are coming for four cryptocurrenciesUS-based investment company GraniteShares is taking a new step to whet the appetite of crypto investors. The company has applied to offer 3x leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on XRP, Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. These products will be designed for both long (bullish) and short (bearish) positions.GraniteShares already offers similar leveraged products for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. However, the new application promises investors much higher returns (and, of course, risk) by offering up to 3x leveraged trading, particularly for XRP. Interest in XRP ETFs ContinuesIn recent months, 2X leveraged XRP ETFs have gained significant popularity among investors. GraniteShares aims to take this trend a step further. The company's planned 3x version is designed for risk-averse investors looking to maximize price fluctuations.However, this move comes at a time when the overall outlook for the crypto market is pessimistic. The XRP price has fallen below $2.90, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are also in the red. This has dampened enthusiasm for ETF applications in the short term.Approval Process Stalled by Government ShutdownThe U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has temporarily suspended review of new ETF applications due to the federal government shutdown. This has led to the indefinite postponement of approval for many altcoin products, including XRP ETFs.Nevertheless, GraniteShares' persistence is noteworthy. The company was one of the first institutions to champion crypto ETFs in the past. This move could create a leadership opportunity in the "high risk, high return" segment.Leading XRP lawyer Bill Morgan responded to GraniteShares's application with humor: "I will continue to panic-buy XRP in the face of this overwhelming demand for an XRP ETF," he said. Morgan also emphasized that the application demonstrates that XRP remains among the top four cryptocurrencies, alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.GraniteShares's move signals continued interest in XRP from institutional investors, even as the market declines. Despite regulatory uncertainty and price weakness, leveraged ETF offerings have brought XRP back into the headlines.The market's calm comes amidst a growing influence of traditional finance (TradFi). However, if these 3X leveraged products are approved, a renewed surge of volatility and renewed retail investor interest is expected in the crypto market.In short, if GraniteShares's move is approved, it could usher in a new era for risk-averse investors—a bold step bridging the gap between crypto and traditional finance.
Bitcoin's role as "digital gold," long dubbed "digital gold," has once again become a hot topic in the financial world. According to investment giant VanEck, the leading cryptocurrency could reach half the market value of gold by the next halving in 2028. Matthew Sigel, the company's head of digital asset research, predicts that the "equivalent value" for Bitcoin will be $644,000 during this period, when gold is reaching record highs.Gold futures have reached a record high of over $4,000 per ounce. This rise reflects the continued shift towards traditional safe havens. According to Sigel, this record high for gold also demonstrates Bitcoin's long-term potential: "At half the current price of gold, it would translate to a price of $644,000."Bitcoin price is currently trading around $124,000, with a total market capitalization of $2.48 trillion. Market data shows a 12% increase in the past month. However, VanEck analysts emphasize that this target could be achieved gradually over a period of five to 10 years, rather than in the short term. Derek Lim, manager of Caladan Research, said, “Reaching half of gold’s market capitalization requires an increase of approximately 5.6 times from current levels. Bitcoin is no longer parabolic as in the past, but exhibits more consistent growth. Therefore, achieving this target may take several years, not just one cycle.”These predictions coincide with gold outperforming Bitcoin this year. According to TradingView data, gold rose 49 percent through 2025, while Bitcoin’s return remained at 31 percent. However, analysts believe this gap will close in the long term. Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital said, “Even JPMorgan described gold and Bitcoin as ‘hedges against loss.’ It makes sense to consider the two together; first, half-value, then parity is possible.” VanEck predicts that Bitcoin could conduct 10% of global trade and 5% of local transactions on blockchain in the long term. According to a report published by the company in July 2024, central banks could hold an average of 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin in the future. In this scenario, Bitcoin's market capitalization could reach $61 trillion and its price $2.9 million by 2050.Will history repeat itself?On the other hand, the market is cautious about whether historical cycles will repeat themselves. In the past, Bitcoin peaked 500–550 days after the halving. However, this cycle could be different. Experts note that spot ETFs and institutional participation have reduced volatility and made growth more sustainable.According to Derek Lim, “This time, we may see a more sustained upward trend, not a short-lived peak like in the past. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle has just begun, meaning Bitcoin has the wind at its back.”
Crypto asset investment products saw a record inflow of $5.95 billion last week. According to CoinShares data, this figure marked the highest weekly inflow ever measured for digital asset funds. This surge in investor interest is believed to be driven by the delayed response to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, weak employment data, and concerns about the risk of a government shutdown.US-based products led the week by a large margin with $5 billion in inflows. Switzerland broke its own record with $563 million, while Germany saw its second-highest weekly inflow with $312 million. This strong performance brought the total asset value under management (AUM) of digital asset investment products to an all-time high of $254 billion.Strong inflows led by Bitcoin and EthereumThe lion's share of investment inflows went to Bitcoin. With $3.55 billion in weekly fund inflows, BTC reached its highest level in history. Despite this, investor interest in short-term instruments remained extremely low. This suggests that the overall bullish outlook in the market remains strong. Ethereum saw a strong inflow of $1.48 billion. This brings ETH's total fund inflow since the beginning of the year to $13.7 billion, almost triple the level of 2024. Spot Ethereum ETFs traded in the US reportedly received $1.3 billion, with BlackRock's ETHA product leading the way with an inflow of $691.7 million.Records for Solana and XRPSolana (SOL) saw its highest weekly inflow in history with $706.5 million. This figure brings Solana's total fund inflow for 2025 to $2.58 billion. XRP also attracted attention with a strong inflow of $219.4 million. However, other altcoins did not see the same momentum; Sui saw $3.4 million, Chainlink $1.5 million, and Litecoin $1.2 million. In contrast, multi-asset products saw $23.5 million in outflows. CoinShares data shows that investors preferred to concentrate on specific assets rather than diversify their portfolios during this period.US Dominance of ETF ProvidersAmong fund providers, iShares (BlackRock) ETFs topped the list with a massive inflow of $2.5 billion. Fidelity's Bitcoin fund saw inflows of $692 million, Grayscale's $305 million, and Bitwise's $295 million. CoinShares XBT products experienced a limited outflow of $12 million.Total inflows since the beginning of the year have reached $45.5 billion, with $35.7 billion of these flows coming from iShares products. This chart clearly demonstrates that US-based ETFs clearly dominate the market dynamics.Weakening global employment data has reinforced investors' tendency to reduce risk in traditional markets. This has fueled demand for liquid assets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to CoinShares analyst James Butterfill, market movements indicate that the search for a “digital safe haven” has regained momentum due to both the delayed impact of the interest rate cut and political uncertainties in the US.
