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UNI Technical AnalysisUniswap has returned to the spotlight in the first months of 2026 with its protocol revenue model. On the governance side, a proposal is being discussed to allocate a portion of trading fees directly to the protocol treasury. This step could mean that UNI becomes not only a governance token but also an asset linked to revenue. During the same period, cross-chain expansion and innovations in developer tools are supporting usage. For this reason, when looking at the chart now, it is critical to see how price is reflecting this potential revenue model. Rising Wedge Formation On the technical side, a clear rising wedge structure has formed on the 4-hour chart. The lower trendline is upward sloping, while the upper band is rising at a more limited pace. Such structures generally produce weakening signals and carry downside breakout risk.For now, the 3.52 level is the critical threshold.As long as price remains below 3.52, the short-term negative structure is preserved. In this scenario, the first support stands at 3.38, followed by the 3.24 – 3.20 band. If the wedge’s lower band is lost, the 3.06 region may be retested.In the upside scenario:Sustained price action above 3.52 → first the 3.57 – 3.58 resistance, followed by the wedge’s upper band and the 3.74 – 3.84 region become targets. However, without a clear break above 3.52, upward moves remain reactionary.Summary:Below 3.52 → negative structure continuesAbove 3.52 → recovery toward the 3.74 bandDue to the wedge structure, downside breakout risk remains on the tableThese analyses do not provide investment advice and focus on support and resistance levels that are considered to offer short- and medium-term trading opportunities depending on market conditions. However, responsibility for execution and risk management lies entirely with the user. In addition, the use of stop loss is strongly recommended.
USDT, the largest stablecoin in the crypto market, is poised for its sharpest monthly contraction in recent years. On-chain data points to a significant drop in supply, particularly due to increasing redemptions by large investors (whales).According to a Bloomberg report based on Artemis Analytics data, the USDT supply issued by Tether has decreased by approximately $1.5 billion so far in February. A $1.2 billion drop was also experienced in January. Thus, USDT is heading towards its largest monthly decline since the sharp contraction seen after the FTX exchange crash in November 2022. As a reminder, the bankruptcy of FTX and more than 150 related companies led to a decrease of approximately $2 billion in the USDT supply in December 2022. At that time, the shock to investor confidence created a ripple effect in the stablecoin market. The current decline, however, is attributed not directly to a bankruptcy shock, but rather to position adjustments by large investors. A Liquidity Signal?The contraction in USDT is considered a significant indicator of liquidity conditions in the crypto market. This is because USDT is the most commonly used tool for investors to enter and exit crypto assets. With a market capitalization of approximately $183 billion, it represents 71% of the total stablecoin market, making it the clear leader among dollar-pegged digital assets. However, the decline in USDT does not indicate a general contraction in the overall stablecoin market. According to DeFiLlama data, the total stablecoin market capitalization increased by 2.33% in February, rising from $300 billion to $307 billion. In other words, the pullback in USDT has been partially offset by other players. USDC, issued by Circle, the second-largest player in the market, also declined by 0.9% in February. The decrease in USDT was 1.7%. In contrast, the market value of USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, which is linked to the Trump family, increased by 50 percent in the last month, reaching $5.1 billion. This shows that capital has not completely left the stablecoin market; on the contrary, it has shifted towards some projects. Whales are selling, new wallets are buyingData from the on-chain analytics platform Nansen reveals that large investors have been reducing their USDT holdings in recent weeks. In the last week, a total of $69.9 million worth of USDT was withdrawn from 22 different whale wallets. The rate of selling by this group has increased 1.6 times compared to the previous period.It is stated that the group of investors who are followed for their high-yield performance and are called "smart money" are also in a net selling position. On the other hand, new wallets created in the last 15 days made approximately $591 million worth of USDT purchases in the same week. This situation points to a striking split in the market.On one hand, it is seen that large and experienced investors are withdrawing capital or shifting it to different assets, while on the other hand, new participants are accumulating USDT. The fact that the total stablecoin market continues to grow despite the supply contraction also supports this balance. Consequently, the sharp monthly drop in USDT is not being interpreted as a crisis signal in itself. However, changes in large investor behavior are being closely monitored in terms of market liquidity and risk appetite. Whether the supply trend continues in the coming weeks may provide clearer clues about the overall direction of the crypto market.
TON Technical Analysis TON Current View On the TON side, price is currently positioned at a level where a reaction is technically expected in the short time frame.The 1.36 – 1.37 band is functioning as both horizontal support and a Fibonacci retracement area.As long as price holds above this region, continuation of the short-term rebound is expected. The first target stands at 1.398, followed by the 1.426 – 1.436 resistance band. The main short-term objective is the 1.46 – 1.467 region.A move toward 1.46, in particular, would confirm that the recent pullback was a technical correction within the broader structure.Downside scenario:Sustained price action below 1.36 would bring 1.33 and then the 1.30 region back into focus.Summary:1.36 – 1.37 → key supportAbove → 1.46 targetBelow → 1.33 riskThese analyses do not provide investment advice and focus on support and resistance levels that are considered to offer short- and medium-term trading opportunities depending on market conditions. However, responsibility for execution and risk management lies entirely with the user. In addition, the use of stop loss is strongly recommended.
HBAR/USDT Technical AnalysisHBAR stands out as one of the projects focused on institutional usage and asset tokenization, supported by its fast and low-cost transaction infrastructure. In 2026, network upgrades and ecosystem developments show that the project is advancing with a real-use focus rather than pure speculation. On the market side, both its technology narrative and increasing network activity are trying to reflect into price action. For this reason, the current technical structure is critical in understanding how these fundamental developments are being priced in. Falling Trend Structure On the HBAR side, the main structure remains in a downtrend. With the recent rise, price touched the trendline and we saw a pullback from that area. In other words, the trendline continues to act as resistance for now.In the short term, the $0.09 level stands as critical support.As long as price remains above this region, the possibility of a move toward the $0.098 – $0.106 band and a retest of the descending trend remains on the table. Especially a close above $0.106 would strengthen the attempt to break the trend.Upside scenario;If $0.09 holds → $0.098 → $0.106 → $0.109 band comes into play.Downside scenario;A close below $0.09 → first the $0.089 – $0.082 support band, followed by a potential retest of the $0.072 region.In summary;Above $0.09 → structure remains intactTarget: retest of the descending trendBelow $0.09 → signals weakeningThese analyses do not provide investment advice and focus on support and resistance levels that are considered to offer short- and medium-term trading opportunities depending on market conditions. However, responsibility for execution and risk management lies entirely with the user. In addition, the use of stop loss is strongly recommended.
CME Group, one of the world's largest derivatives markets, has announced it will open regulated cryptocurrency futures and options contracts for trading 24/7. According to a statement shared via PR Newswire, the new system will go live on May 29th, following regulatory approval. Tim McCourt, Global Head of Equities, Foreign Exchange and Alternative Products at CME, stated that demand for risk management in the digital asset market has reached historic levels. McCourt noted that the total nominal volume of cryptocurrency futures and options products on CME will reach $3 trillion by 2025. This figure demonstrates the strengthening trend of institutional investors towards regulated and transparent products. CME management acknowledges that not every market is suitable for 24/7 trading; however, they emphasize that crypto assets, by their nature, are traded continuously. Therefore, continuous access will be provided to allow investors to manage their exposure in real-time and take positions against price movements that may occur over the weekend. Starting May 29thAccording to the new arrangement, CME Group's crypto futures and options contracts will be traded continuously on the CME Globex platform from 4:00 PM CT on Friday, May 29th. The system will remain open throughout the weekend, except for a minimum two-hour maintenance break. Transactions from Friday evening to Sunday evening will be recorded with the next business day's trading date. Clearing, settlement, and regulatory reporting will also be carried out on the following business day. This structure aims to maintain the regulatory and operational framework while offering continuous trading opportunities. Record Increase in VolumesCME's crypto products have also gained strong momentum in 2026. The average daily trading volume since the beginning of the year has reached 407,200 contracts; this represents a 46 percent increase compared to the same period last year. The average daily open interest has increased by 7 percent year-on-year to 335,400 contracts. In the futures market alone, the average daily volume reached 403,900 contracts, with a 47% year-on-year increase. The figures show that institutional participation is steadily increasing and the crypto derivatives market is evolving into a more mature structure. Institutional interest is deepeningCME Group offers global benchmark products across many asset classes, including interest rates, equity indices, currencies, commodities, and crypto assets. The company conducts futures and options trading through CME Globex; operates BrokerTec for fixed income products and EBS for currencies. It also houses CME Clearing, one of the world's leading central clearing houses.The high volatility of crypto markets, even on weekends, poses a significant risk, especially for institutional investors. While the spot market is open 24/7, the fact that regulated derivative products are limited to certain hours can make risk management difficult. CME's move aims to eliminate the time gap between the traditional financial infrastructure and the trading dynamics of the crypto market. The 24/7 trading model, which will become operational on May 29th if regulatory approval is finalized, is seen as the beginning of a new era in the crypto derivatives market. This step, which facilitates institutional investors' access to digital assets, could also contribute to further deepening liquidity in regulated markets.
Societe Generale-FORGE (SG-FORGE), the digital asset subsidiary of French banking giant Societe Generale, announced the launch of its euro-backed stablecoin, EUR Coinvertible, on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). The announcement, made on February 18th, marks a new phase in the company's multi-chain strategy. SG-FORGE stated that EUR Coinvertible is now active on XRPL, emphasizing that the integration process was supported by Ripple's custody infrastructure. This provides the technical foundation for secure storage and institutional-standard use of the stablecoin. New step in multi-chain strategyEUR Coinvertible was previously launched on the Ethereum and Solana networks. The XRPL integration strengthens SG-FORGE's strategy of having a presence on different blockchains. With this move, the company aims to both increase adoption and benefit from XRPL's scalability, speed, and low transaction costs. XRP Ledger has long stood out as a preferred layer-1 blockchain for financial institutions in cross-border payment solutions and tokenization projects.SG-FORGE CEO Jean-Marc Stenger, in his assessment following the launch, stated that the successful launch of XRPL reinforces the company's commitment to offering next-generation, regulated crypto assets. Stenger said they will continue to expand the scope of digital asset solutions in line with the principles of transparency, security, and scalability.Ripple infrastructure and new use casesOne of the notable aspects of the integration was the custody solution provided by Ripple. Cassie Craddock, Ripple's General Manager for the UK and Europe, stated that SG-FORGE is one of the leading institutions in the institutional crypto asset space in Europe. She noted that Ripple has long provided SG-FORGE with digital asset infrastructure and offers technology that meets the highest security and operational standards. According to the statements, EUR Coinvertible is not only being considered as a payment instrument, but also for integrated use in Ripple products and as trading collateral. This indicates that the stablecoin could play a more active role in derivative transactions and institutional trading platforms.A wave of regulation-compliant stablecoins in EuropeEUR Coinvertible is positioned as a stablecoin pegged one-to-one to the euro and designed for institutional use. SG-FORGE emphasizes that the product has been developed in compliance with regulations and is structured to meet the needs of institutional investors in particular.With the clarification of the regulatory framework for digital assets in Europe, banking-based stablecoin projects have become more visible. The shift of traditional financial institutions towards blockchain-based assets is accelerating the institutionalization process of the market.XRPL integration expands the reach of EUR Coinvertible while also creating liquidity and use case diversity among different blockchain ecosystems. SG-FORGE's move indicates that European-based banks are preparing to take a more active role in stablecoin competition. In the coming period, EUR Coinvertible is expected to see increased use in various financial products, including collateral, payment instruments, and tokenization projects. The multi-chain approach provides flexibility for institutional players and could increase the weight of blockchain-based solutions in the European financial system.
Arizona has taken a significant step towards integrating digital assets into the public treasury. The Arizona Senate Finance Committee approved Bill SB1649, known as the "Digital Asset Reserve Fund Bill," by a 4-2 vote, moving it to the next stage. The bill will now go to the Senate Rules Committee and continue its legislative process.SB1649 envisions the establishment of a "Digital Asset Strategic Reserve Fund" to be managed by the state. This fund aims to hold certain crypto assets that come into the possession of Arizona authorities under a structured reserve system. Specifically, it is planned that digital assets that are seized, confiscated, or voluntarily transferred to the state will be collected under this new fund.The bill provides a clear framework for how digital assets will be stored and managed under state control. In this respect, Arizona is working on a model that shows that crypto assets can be addressed not only from the perspective of the private sector or individual investors, but also from a public finance perspective. XRP Explicitly Defined as a Reserve AssetOne of the most striking elements of SB1649 is the explicit inclusion of XRP among the eligible assets for the reserve. The bill clearly states that XRP and other eligible digital instruments can be held within the reserve in cases of state seizure or voluntary takeover.This explicit reference has symbolic significance in the crypto market, particularly for XRP. The mention of a specific token by name in a state-level legal document is considered a significant sign of institutional and public acceptance of digital assets.However, the bill focuses on how to manage assets already under state control, rather than initiating a new investment program. In other words, it aims not for Arizona to directly purchase crypto from the market, but rather to hold existing and future digital assets within an institutional framework.Custody and Management Framework DefinedAccording to the bill, the management of the reserve fund will be given to the Arizona State Treasurer. The Treasurer will be responsible for the secure custody of digital assets and the management of the portfolio. However, this authority is not unlimited; There is a requirement to comply with a defined custody plan and regulated oversight solutions. The text states that tools such as regulated custody services and exchange-traded products can be used. Thus, the aim is to ensure the security of digital assets through regulated solutions. Not leaving control entirely to private platforms is a key element in terms of protecting public oversight.The bill does not directly replace Arizona's existing "Revised Uniform Fiduciary Access to Digital Assets Act." Instead, it establishes a complementary structure for how digital assets held by public institutions will be stored.The process will continue in the Senate and the House of RepresentativesSB1649, which passed the Finance Committee with a 4-2 vote, will now be considered in the Senate plenary session. If it receives majority support there, it will be sent to the Arizona House of Representatives. Amendments to the bill may be proposed during the House stage.If the bill is enacted in its current form, Arizona could become one of the first US states to create a special reserve structure for seized or acquired crypto assets. The explicit designation of XRP as a reserve asset is seen as a development that could open this model up to debate on a national scale.
Owning a home without selling crypto assets is no longer just a theoretical idea. Milo, a US-based crypto-backed mortgage company, announced it has disbursed over $100 million in home loans to date, with its largest transaction being a single $12 million crypto mortgage agreement. The company's model is simple but unconventional. Investors who own Bitcoin or Ethereum can obtain loans of up to $25 million by using their digital assets as collateral without selling them. This eliminates the need for a down payment and avoids the tax burden that could arise from selling assets. According to Milo's founder, Josip Rupena, the target audience is quite clear. These are individuals who bought Bitcoin about 10 years ago on a friend's recommendation and held onto their assets despite sharp fluctuations; today, they hold a significant portion of their net worth in crypto assets. These individuals are typically between 30 and 55 years old, have a regular income and a retirement account, but their annual income is not sufficient to purchase their desired home. Rupena notes that a typical transaction is for a home worth approximately $1.5 million. For example, consider an investor who earns $100,000 annually but has between $3 and $7 million in crypto assets. If this investor's portfolio consisted of Apple shares, it might be easier for them to obtain a loan by using collateral within the traditional financial system. However, the lack of widespread acceptance of crypto assets and concerns about volatility make these kinds of specialized financing solutions necessary.Milo requires crypto collateral up to 100% of the property's value. This collateral can be held in qualified custodians such as Coinbase or BitGo. A self-custody option is also available for users who wish; that is, investors can keep complete control of their assets.Interest rates start at 8.25%, and it can be used for purposes other than housingLoans are offered with interest rates starting at 8.25%. Moreover, its use is not limited only to housing purchases. Financing can also be provided for land acquisition, home renovations, or business investments using the same model.One of the biggest risks in the crypto loan market is the "margin call" mechanism. In traditional crypto-backed loans, additional collateral can be called when the asset price falls by 20–25%. Milo, however, says he has designed a more conservative structure. The product is designed to tolerate value losses of up to 65%. According to Rupena, in a sharp decline scenario, instead of completely liquidating the loan, the company restructures the loan amount by reducing the risk level. The collateral ratio is reduced from 100% to the 65–70% range, and the customer does not lose their home as long as they continue making payments. This approach is based on the claim, "You don't lose your house just because Bitcoin falls." The company has completed many transactions so far, particularly in Miami and throughout Florida. It is also active in Texas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, and Arizona. The record-breaking $12 million transaction mentioned in the press release was completed in Tennessee. Milo's product is also supported by leading figures in the industry. Adam Back, a Bitcoin pioneer and CEO of Blockstream, describes this model as "a game-changer in the Bitcoin-based lending space." According to Back, investors have the opportunity to accumulate equity in real estate without liquidating their long-term Bitcoin positions. Given the volatile nature of the crypto market, this model continues to carry risks.
Crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments has launched a new exchange-traded product (ETF) focused on the Sui ecosystem. The Grayscale Sui Staking ETF, ticker symbol “GSUI,” will begin trading on the NYSE Arca tomorrow. The fund offers investors direct exposure to the SUI token price while also providing the opportunity to earn staking returns. GSUI differs from classic spot crypto ETFs in that it not only holds SUI tokens but also aims to generate additional income by staking these assets on the Sui network. This allows investors to benefit from staking rewards stemming from both price increases and the network verification process. The ETF has a management fee of 0.35%, but it has been announced that this fee will be waived for the first three months or until the fund size reaches $1 billion. This move aims to attract institutional investors and individual investors looking for early positions. The fund also features notable collaborations on its operational side. While custody and prime broker services are provided by Coinbase, Bank of New York Mellon handles administrative and transfer services. Liquidity is expected to be supported by major market makers such as Jane Street and Virtu. This structure allows GSUI to operate integrated with traditional financial infrastructure. Grayscale stated that the fund is not registered under the Investment Corporation Act 1940 and therefore is not subject to the same regulatory framework as classic ETFs. The company specifically noted that the investment carries significant risks, is susceptible to high volatility, and could result in the loss of the entire principal. It was also emphasized that GSUI does not directly represent an investment in SUI tokens.The staking-focused ETF model marks a new era in the crypto market. While Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have recently come to the forefront, products offering staking returns have remained limited. GSUI fills this gap, offering investors the potential for two-way returns. This creates a compelling alternative, particularly for investors seeking passive income.What is the current price of SUI? On the other hand, there is a development that could put pressure on the SUI price in the short term. Approximately 43.35 million SUI tokens will be unlocked on March 1, 2026. This process, known as token unlocking, can trigger selling pressure because it increases the circulating supply. It is known that similar unlocks in the past have been followed by price pullbacks.SUI's market capitalization is currently around $4 billion, and the token has experienced a significant loss in value over the past year. This indicates that investor sentiment remains cautious. In the next 30 days, it is expected that not only SUI but also a total of over $900 million worth of tokens from various projects will enter circulation. This development could affect overall liquidity in the altcoin market. The SUI price is currently trading between $0.9 and $1. While Bitcoin dominance hovers around 58%, indicating a relatively balanced market, the increase in altcoin supply is being closely monitored. GSUI's initial trading volume and price performance will be crucial in measuring institutional demand for both SUI and staking-based ETFs.
The Deutsche Bundesbank, also known as the German Central Bank, sent a strong message regarding the widespread adoption of digital euros and euro-based stablecoins. The institution's latest statement aims to increase the resilience of the European financial system and strengthen the continent's monetary sovereignty by promoting the more effective use of digital assets. Following this announcement, analysts predicted that the global stablecoin market could reach $500 billion by 2028. The share of euro-based stablecoins, in particular, is expected to increase significantly in the coming years.ECB warns about dollarEuropean Central Bank officials, meanwhile, drew attention to the increasing global dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins. This situation could weaken the European Central Bank's monetary policy transmission mechanism. According to officials, creating a strong central bank digital currency (CBDC) structure in the euro zone will both increase the resilience of the financial system and strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy.German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil also stated in Brussels that the European Union is at a critical juncture. Emphasizing the need to transcend national interests, Klingbeil called for accelerating steps to strengthen Europe's economic sovereignty.Nagel: Euro stablecoins are game-changersBundesbank President Joachim Nagel, in a speech in Frankfurt, stated that a euro-linked CBDC and regulated euro stablecoins are of strategic importance for the financial sector.According to Nagel, the wholesale CBDC model, in particular, will offer financial institutions the opportunity to make programmable payments via central bank money. This structure can reduce costs in cross-border transactions and increase competitiveness in fintech infrastructures. Analysts note that this approach is part of Europe's effort to reduce its dependence on dollar-based assets. While it is commented that more positive policies towards crypto assets in the US could increase the risk of "digital dollarization," euro-based stablecoin and tokenization projects are thought to be a counterweight to this threat. S&P's Trillion-Euro ForecastCredit rating agency S&P Global Ratings has also shared striking projections regarding the euro-pegged stablecoin market. According to the institution, the market size, which was approximately €650 million at the end of last year, could reach €1.1 trillion by 2030 in the most optimistic scenario.In the main scenario, the market is expected to reach €570 billion. This figure corresponds to approximately 2.2% of total bank deposits in the euro zone. The estimates also include nearly €500 billion in tokenized investment products and approximately €100 billion in tokenized payment volume.In comparison, it is seen that the market value of US dollar-pegged stablecoins will reach $310 billion by the end of 2025. Although Europe's share in this area is still limited, the picture could change rapidly as institutional support and regulatory clarity increase. In conclusion, the message from the Bundesbank and the ECB is clear: Europe, which wants to have a say in digital payment infrastructure, must rapidly implement solutions based on its own currency.
The outflow from cryptocurrency investment products has continued for a fourth week. According to CoinShares' weekly report, there was a net outflow of $173 million from digital asset funds last week. This brings the total outflow over the past four weeks to $3.74 billion. Although the pace has slowed after the sharp sell-off seen at the beginning of the month, the weakness in fund flows has not yet ended. The picture was more optimistic in the early days of the week. A total of $575 million in inflows was recorded on Monday and Tuesday. However, a strong outflow of $853 million followed. This wave is considered to be influenced by the weakness in prices. On the last trading day of the week, a limited recovery of $105 million was seen after the lower-than-expected US inflation data. Nevertheless, the overall weekly picture remained negative. There is also a noticeable decrease in trading volumes. The total volume in exchange-traded products (ETPs) fell to $27 billion. The previous week, a record high of $63 billion was reached. This sharp drop in volume indicates that speculative appetite has weakened and investors have adopted a cautious stance. Sharp Outflow in the US, Selective Buying Wave in EuropeThe regional distribution points to a significant divergence. US-based products saw a weekly outflow of $403 million. In contrast, Europe and Canada experienced a net inflow of $230 million. Germany led with an inflow of $114.8 million, followed by Canada with $46.3 million and Switzerland with $36.8 million. While risk aversion continues in the US, a selective buying appetite is noticeable in Europe.Looking at assets, the largest outflow was seen in Bitcoin funds. $133.3 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin investment products. Interestingly, there was also a total outflow of $15.4 million in short-Bitcoin products in the last two weeks. CoinShares notes that such simultaneous outflows have historically been seen near market lows. The picture is also weak on the Ethereum side. There was a weekly outflow of $85.1 million from Ethereum funds. Thus, the total outflow from Ethereum products since the beginning of the year has reached $458 million. Multi-asset funds also experienced a limited withdrawal of $14.6 million. However, some altcoins continue to outperform. XRP funds attracted $33.4 million in inflows last week. Solana funds recorded a net inflow of $31 million. Chainlink also showed a positive inflow of $1.1 million. This picture shows that investors are avoiding widespread risk-taking while preferring to increase positions in specific projects.The total assets under management is at $132.9 billion. Bitcoin products are clearly leading with $105.5 billion in AUM. Ethereum products have approximately $15.8 billion in size. In summary, while selling pressure in crypto fund flows has slowed, it has not completely disappeared. While outflows from the US are dragging down the global picture, inflows from Europe and Canada are playing a balancing role. While a cautious atmosphere persists in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the relatively strong flows in altcoins like XRP and Solana reveal the presence of selective risk appetite in the market. Macroeconomic data and price movements in the coming weeks will determine the direction these balances will take.
AAVE/USDT Technical Outlook Falling Trend On the AAVE side, the main structure clearly remains in a downtrend. On the daily chart, every rebound has been met with selling at the upper main trendline. Price is currently trading again within an intermediate resistance zone.The $131 level is the critical threshold.This area acts as both a horizontal resistance and sits close to the descending trendline. Unless $131 is broken, it is difficult to interpret upside movement as a trend reversal. Rebounds remain technical in nature.Upside scenario;A daily close above $131 → the $138 – $145 range could be tested first.The real trend breakout would only become clear with sustained price action above $145.Downside scenario;As long as price stays below $131, selling pressure may continue.First support: $122, followed by the $114 – $112 region.A move below $104 would signal renewed weakness.In summary:As long as $131 is not broken, the primary downtrend remains intact.Without a breakout of this level, it is difficult to speak of a strong trend reversal.These analyses do not provide investment advice and focus on support and resistance levels that are considered to offer short- and medium-term trading opportunities depending on market conditions. However, responsibility for execution and risk management lies entirely with the user. In addition, the use of stop loss is strongly recommended.
Remarkable data regarding the size of the cryptocurrency market in Russia has been made public. It was announced that the country's daily cryptocurrency transaction volume has reached 50 billion rubles, or approximately $650 million; and the total annual volume exceeds 10 trillion rubles. This represents a massive economic activity of roughly $130.5 billion. Attention is now focused on the spring periodThese figures were presented by Russian Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov at the Alfa Talk conference. Chebeskov pointed out that transactions of this magnitude largely take place outside the regulation sphere, emphasizing that the current situation remains outside the direct oversight of public authorities. According to officials, this volume, exceeding 10 trillion rubles annually, operates outside the framework of official regulation. This situation has prompted the government and the Central Bank of Russia to prepare comprehensive regulations to legalize the cryptocurrency market. The goal is to pass a new cryptocurrency law through the State Duma in the spring.Central Bank Deputy Governor Vladimir Chistyukhin stated that both the government and the Central Bank expect the draft law on the cryptocurrency market to be adopted during the spring session. The prepared framework will open the door for licensed financial infrastructure to enter the crypto asset space.In this context, exchanges and brokerage firms that are already operating with licenses will be able to offer crypto services. Crypto trading, including spot transactions, will be brought to a legal basis. A special licensing requirement will be introduced, especially for cryptocurrency exchanges; sanctions are planned for unlicensed intermediaries.Moscow Exchange (MOEX), one of Russia's largest financial infrastructure institutions, has already started offering crypto-related products. The exchange lists cash-settled futures contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is planned to add Solana, XRP, and TRX futures in the coming period. If the new regulation comes into force, MOEX and brokerage firms will be able to operate directly in the spot crypto market.According to the draft regulation, both qualified and unqualified investors will be able to participate in crypto transactions; however, certain limitations are foreseen for unqualified investors. This approach aims to offer a balanced model that increases investor protection while not completely closing the market. According to the Russian Central Bank's financial stability report, by mid-2025, the total assets held by Russian users on global cryptocurrency exchanges reached 933 billion rubles, or approximately $11.9 billion. The majority of these platforms are not regulated within Russia. Sergey Shvetsov, head of the MOEX Supervisory Board, states that Russian investors pay approximately $15 billion in commissions annually to global cryptocurrency platforms. It is estimated that the total annual commission revenue from cryptocurrency transactions by cryptocurrency exchanges and traditional exchanges globally is around $50 billion, with approximately one-third of this potentially originating from Russia. Data from the international blockchain analytics company Chainalysis also reveals that Russia is the largest cryptocurrency market in Europe. Between July 2024 and June 2025, $376.3 billion in cryptocurrency flowed into Russia. During the same period, the United Kingdom ranked second with a volume of $273.2 billion. Germany and Ukraine were other European countries that received over $200 billion in cryptocurrency inflows. All this data shows that the cryptocurrency market in Russia has reached a size that can no longer be ignored. The government's goal is to bring this massive volume of transactions operating in the grey area under control, broaden the tax base, and make local financial institutions competitive with global platforms. The law, expected to be enacted in the spring, could mark the beginning of a new era in Russia's crypto policy.
LINK/USDT Technical AnalysisOn the LINK side, after a sharp decline, we see an attempt to form a base within the 8.28 – 9.07 range. The $9 level stands as the first short-term threshold.If price maintains above $9, upside momentum is expected to accelerate, targeting $10.15 initially, followed by the $11.35 – $11.50 range. The $11 area is a strong resistance zone, as it previously served as a breakout level.In the downside scenario:As long as there are no closes below $7.15, the current rebound structure remains valid. A loss of $7.15 could deepen selling pressure and bring lower support levels back into focus.Summary:If $9 is broken → $11 zone becomes the short-term targetStructure remains valid unless $7.15 is lost LINK Current View These analyses do not provide investment advice and focus on support and resistance levels that are considered to offer short- and medium-term trading opportunities depending on market conditions. However, responsibility for execution and risk management lies entirely with the user. In addition, the use of stop loss is strongly recommended.
Cryptocurrency markets started the week with sharp sell-offs. As investors avoided risk ahead of a busy macroeconomic data calendar later in the week, widespread declines were observed, particularly in the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $68,400, having lost approximately 3% of its value in the last 24 hours. The overall market picture was even weaker. Losses in large-volume altcoins like XRP, Ethereum, and Dogecoin were even greater than Bitcoin's. 85 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization experienced declines, with privacy-focused projects Monero and Zcash falling by 10% and 8% respectively. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 2.7% in January to 2.4% year-on-year. This data, indicating a gradual slowdown in inflation, strengthened expectations that the Fed could make at least two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year. Indeed, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.05%, its lowest level since early December.Following the inflation data, Bitcoin rose from $66,800 to over $70,000 over the weekend. However, this level could not be sustained, and the price retreated back to the $68,000 range. This shows that the attempts at upward movement in the market have not yet found strong demand support.What do the experts say?According to Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the India-based cryptocurrency exchange Giottus, selective demand is emerging in the market. Subburaj stated that risk appetite remains limited and macroeconomic uncertainties are pushing investors to be cautious. He noted that the trend of reducing leverage continues in derivative markets, with investors first shrinking their positions and then searching for direction. The inability of rallies to be sustainable and the fact that declines are only met with limited buying at significant support levels supports this cautious atmosphere.The weak market outlook is not limited to short-term price movements. Analysis companies point out that Bitcoin has lost momentum since mid-2025 and that the bearish trend is gaining strength in technical indicators. In particular, the weakening momentum and decrease in volume make it difficult for upward attempts to be sustainable.A more cautious picture was painted in the latest assessment shared by Matrixport. The company stated that on-chain data shows that short-term investors are significantly in losses, which could create additional selling pressure in the market. It also noted an increase in large wallet activity, with some whales positioning themselves on the short side for profit realization or risk reduction.The decline in trading volumes is also noteworthy. According to analysts, the price pressure concentrated around the $68,000 range is raising concerns that a strong bottom has not yet formed. It is emphasized that downward breaks could be sharper in an environment of weak liquidity, therefore investors continue to position themselves cautiously.In the coming days, eyes will be on the Fed's January meeting minutes and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors as an indicator of inflation. Nexo analyst Dessislava Laneva emphasized that the PCE data, in particular, will be decisive in determining whether price pressures are truly weakening. Monthly momentum and annual trend could provide new signals regarding the direction of monetary policy.Yen movement could give a critical signal for BitcoinThere are also noteworthy developments in traditional markets. Mark Nash from Jupiter Asset Management, who has long been known to hold a negative position against the Japanese yen, recently changed his view and predicted that the yen could strengthen. Nash expects a strengthening of around 8-9 percent, especially against the Swiss franc. The record-high positive correlation between the Japanese yen and BTC in recent months makes a potential strengthening of the yen a significant catalyst for the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, not only US data but also movements in currency markets could be decisive in determining Bitcoin's direction. In short, despite the slowdown in inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts, a cautious atmosphere persists in the cryptocurrency market.
