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Donald Trump's Son Predicts $1 Million in Bitcoin and Emphasis on China
Eric Trump, the second-eldest son of US President Donald Trump, described China as "an incredible force in the crypto industry" during his speech at the Bitcoin Asia conference in Hong Kong. Despite China's strict crypto bans, Eric Trump emphasized the influence of both Hong Kong and China on the crypto world.China and Hong Kong's RoleEric Trump acknowledged China's importance in the crypto world during a conversation with David Bailey at Bitcoin Asia. In response to Bailey's comment that "China is another Bitcoin superpower next to the US," Eric Trump replied, "You've become a very significant force in this world, and you're doing it really well."Yet, China banned institutional crypto trading in 2017 and declared crypto transactions completely illegal in 2021. Despite this, individual crypto ownership remains legal, and peer-to-peer transactions remain in a gray area. Furthermore, despite China's ban on Bitcoin mining, mining is known to continue in some regions. Hong Kong, by contrast, continues to open up space for crypto as a regulated pilot region under China's shadow.Praise for the Middle East and South AmericaEric Trump highlighted not only China but also the Middle East. Stating that the region has embraced crypto "massively," Trump praised the passion shown by some smaller countries in South America for the sector. However, he singled out his country, saying, "The US is winning the digital revolution right now."Trump Family and Crypto ConnectionThe Trump family's interest in crypto is growing. During President Donald Trump's term, the US passed stablecoin legislation, established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and declared its goal of making the country a global "crypto hub." During his speech in Hong Kong, Eric Trump introduced his American Bitcoin initiative, a joint venture with Hut 8. He also mentioned his advisory role at the DeFi project World Liberty Financial and the Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet.Eric Trump attributed his entry into crypto to the Trump family's exclusion from banks during the Biden administration: "If the banks hadn't closed our family's accounts, I might not be here today. That's how I got into crypto." Bitcoin prediction: $1 millionEric Trump, noting that he has increased his interest in crypto on a personal level, said he spends 90% of his time in the crypto community. He also made a bold price prediction for Bitcoin: “I believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million in the coming years. Buy now, hold long-term, never sell. This is the best asset in the world.”Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at $108,000 at the time of writing. Having fallen 2.6% in the last 24 hours, the leading cryptocurrency remains 12% below its historic high of $124,500, reached on August 14. US-China dialogue and BitcoinEric Trump also pointed to the planned summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The aim is to ease relations strained by US global trade tariffs. Trump indicated that Bitcoin could also be on the agenda during this meeting, but he tempered expectations, saying, “They’ll probably have bigger things to talk about.”
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29 Aug 2025
Markets Count Down to Fed Cut: Bitcoin Responds Immediately to Data
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, broke a record high in mid-August, surpassing $124,000. However, following this surge, the market has refocused on macroeconomic developments. The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policies and released economic data, in particular, play a significant role in determining price action. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,782.62 and has declined 2.46% in the last 24 hours. Fed rate cut expectations postponed until SeptemberAfter the interest rate cuts expected in June and July failed to materialize, attention shifted to September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently offered mild signals regarding monetary policy at his Jackson Hole meeting. Powell emphasized that the balance of risks has shifted and suggested that the current restrictive stance may require adjustments in the future. This statement has strengthened the market's interest rate cut prospects.Indeed, futures expectations have also become clearer. Markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. This expectation is also seen as supporting risk appetite in cryptocurrency markets.PCE data came in line with expectationsThe Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, known as the inflation indicator most closely followed by the Fed in its monetary policy decisions, was released for July.Core PCE (Annual): 2.9% (expected 2.9%, previous 2.8%)Core PCE (Monthly): 0.3% (expected 0.3%, previous 0.3%)PCE Price Index (Annual): 2.6% (expected 2.6%, previous 2.6%)PCE Price Index (Monthly): 0.2% (expected 0.2%, previous 0.3%)The data came in line with expectations, indicating that inflation in the US is progressing in a controlled manner. The fact that annual core inflation remained stable at 2.9% is a development to be closely monitored by the Fed. Consumption and incomes on the risePCE data reflects not only price movements but also trends in consumption and income. Nominal personal consumption increased by 0.5% in July, accelerating compared to the previous month. Real personal consumption expenditures also rose by 0.3%. This suggests that American consumers continue to increase their spending despite inflation.Meanwhile, personal income increased by 0.4% in real terms. This figure supports consumption trends and could influence the Fed's decisions. However, the widening trade deficit to $103.6 billion in July signaled weakness in other areas of the economy.What's next for Bitcoin?Losses in short-term interest rate futures contracts eased following the release of macroeconomic data. Investors are focused on the possibility of a September interest rate cut. This development could keep interest in risky assets alive. However, Bitcoin's decline below $110,000 in the short term suggests investor caution.
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29 Aug 2025
Crucial Friday for Bitcoin and Ethereum: $14 Billion in Options Expires
Crypto markets are preparing for sharp volatility today. A total of $14.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts for August are expiring at the end of the day. Because it's the end of the month, today's expiration is significantly higher than in previous weeks.$11.47 Billion in Options on BitcoinAccording to Deribit data, $11.47 billion in options contracts are expiring for Bitcoin alone. There are a total of 102,598 options contracts, and the Put/Call ratio, which reflects the balance between puts and calls, is 0.78. This ratio signals a cautious but generally optimistic outlook in the market. The "maximum pain" level for Bitcoin options today is set at $115,000. This means that most investors will experience the greatest losses when the price approaches this level. Therefore, the expiration of options could push prices towards this critical point. $3.1 billion in Ethereum options contracts are expiring.On the Ethereum side, $3.137 billion in options contracts are expiring. The total number of open interest is 697,419, and call options clearly dominate. The put/call ratio is at 0.77, indicating that investors are more bullish on ETH.The "maximum pain" level for Ethereum is $3,800. This price range could put pressure on ETH upon expiration. Analysts note that Ethereum options offer a weaker outlook compared to Bitcoin, and that upside expectations are limited.Nvidia Effect: Could Markets Experience Extra Volatility?As the option expiration approaches, the main debate in the market is how Nvidia's strong earnings results, announced on Wednesday, will impact cryptocurrencies. According to analysts, the company's massive earnings have triggered volatility in traditional markets, and this impact is likely to spill over into Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to markets data, Nvidia's implied volatility (IV) is at 100%, with a 7% price movement expected. The main question on crypto investors' minds is: "Will Bitcoin move in line with traditional markets due to Nvidia's influence, or is it now sufficiently independent?"Expected Market ScenarioAs of today, Bitcoin is trading at $109,561, while Ethereum is at $4,4300. Consequently, crypto markets are poised for a volatile time today due to both the high volume of options expiration and the Nvidia influence. Investors will be watching closely to see whether Bitcoin will approach $115,000 or enter a stronger uptrend despite the options pressure.
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29 Aug 2025
Groundbreaking Move from the US: Chainlink and 9 Altcoins on the Agenda for Economic Data
The US government has decided to stream its macroeconomic data directly to the blockchain for the first time. According to the US Department of Commerce's announcement, critical data such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, and US domestic demand strength have been made accessible on-chain thanks to Chainlink's oracle infrastructure. This development is considered a historic milestone in the distribution of public data on the blockchain.Data to be Published on 10 Different NetworksAccording to the Ministry's statement, economic indicators will initially be published on 10 different blockchain networks: Arbitrum, Avalanche, Base, Botanix, Ethereum, Linea, Mantle, Optimism, Sonic, and ZKsync. This data, securely transmitted via Chainlink Data Feeds, will be updated monthly or quarterly. This will allow markets to track macroeconomic indicators in a transparent and immutable format on-chain. Meanwhile, the US government recently shared GDP data on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, TRON, Stellar, Avalanche, Arbitrum, and Polygon. This approach demonstrates the government's growing interest in blockchain technology.Chainlink's rise and market impactLINK, Chainlink's (LINK) native token, gained over 5 percent in value following the announcement of this partnership. In the eyes of investors, this integration with the US government enhances Chainlink's credibility and proves that oracle solutions can also play a role in state-sponsored applications.Chainlink has previously collaborated with major institutions such as BNP Paribas and SWIFT, playing a key role in cross-chain asset transfer tests. Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) infrastructure was used in the trials conducted with SWIFT, and this was highlighted as a critical step in the tokenization process. Paving the way for next-generation applicationsAccording to experts, the US's move to on-chain data could create new opportunities for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. For example, lending protocols could adjust interest rates based on GDP data, or inflation expectations could be reflected more transparently through PCE index-based prediction markets. Furthermore, automated trading strategies and new asset types based on tokenization could be among the infrastructures that will feed into this data.Chainlink has recently attracted attention not only for its technical collaborations but also for its policy engagements. The company announced that it is negotiating with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on broker-dealer and transfer agent regulations and is also contributing to legislative initiatives such as the GENIUS Act.The US Department of Commerce released a statement regarding PYTHThe US Department of Commerce's statement emphasized that the Pyth Network will play a key role in the secure and transparent distribution of economic data on-chain. Following extensive collaboration with Secretary Howard Lutnick, Pyth's official participation in this initiative is considered a significant step in the public sector's adoption of decentralized infrastructure. The company stated that this development strengthens Pyth's position as a trusted data provider and has achieved nationwide approval.
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28 Aug 2025
Tether Brings USDT to Bitcoin Network
Tether, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, announced on August 28th that it will launch its USD₮ (USDT) stablecoin directly on the Bitcoin network. This move makes USDT the first major stablecoin to exist natively on Bitcoin. First Native Stablecoin on BitcoinTether's chosen technology for integration is the RGB protocol, which launched on the mainnet this month with version 0.11.1. RGB is built on Bitcoin's Taproot framework and enables the private, scalable, and user-controlled issuance of digital assets. This will enable USDT transactions to be processed more lightweight, faster, and with greater privacy on the Bitcoin network.The company's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, stated, "Bitcoin deserves a lightweight, private, and scalable stablecoin that feels truly native." According to Ardoino, this integration will both strengthen Bitcoin's use as a payment network and expand USDT's reach. Both Bitcoin and USDT in the Same WalletThanks to RGB integration, users will be able to store and transfer Bitcoin and USDT in the same wallet. This will make stablecoin transactions more convenient and help Bitcoin transcend its role as a mere "store of value." Furthermore, the offline transactions supported by the protocol will provide flexibility and resilience across different payment environments.This development could pave the way for Bitcoin to be used more effectively not only for investment purposes but also as a means of daily payment.USDT's Huge Market ShareTether is currently the market's most dominant stablecoin, with a USDT supply of over $167 billion and a daily trading volume of approximately $118 billion. Used across a wide range of platforms, from centralized exchanges and DeFi platforms to cross-border payment systems and OTC desks, USDT stands out as the crypto market's primary liquidity tool.The migration of USDT to the Bitcoin network is quite exciting, as it represents the convergence of the market's most secure and decentralized blockchain with the most liquid stablecoin. This alliance could create new opportunities, particularly for institutional investors, payment providers and global financial actors.
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28 Aug 2025
Bought It at $332: Sleeping Bitcoin Whale Stirs, 12-Year-Old BTCs Flow to Binance
A Bitcoin whale, who had been quiet in the crypto markets for a long time, returned to the spotlight with a large transfer on August 27th. According to on-chain data, the whale moved 750 BTC (approximately $83 million) to the Binance exchange. This move was the latest in a series of "old wallet" transactions that particularly increased over the summer months.Purchased 12 years ago at $332According to information shared by Lookonchain, the Bitcoins in question were purchased in 2013, when the BTC price was just $332. Compared to today's prices, this sale represents a return hundreds of times greater for the whale. Analysts believe this wallet owner first began selling after Bitcoin surpassed $90,000 in December 2024 and has been gradually withdrawing BTC since then. According to the shared data, the whale has sold 1,750 BTC to date, with an average sale price of $108,160. The profit has reached approximately $550 million. In other words, the 5,000 BTC asset, worth $1.66 million 12 years ago, has gained 331 times its value today.The wallet still holds a massive BTC reserveFollowing the transfer, the whale still has 3,250 BTC (approximately $361 million) in its wallet. According to data from on-chain analytics firm Arkham, the address "bc1q5…9mfcm" where the transaction took place still holds 750 BTC. Another related wallet, "bc1ql…ltg6ym," also holds 2,500 BTC.The addresses used by the whale are in the Bech32 format, introduced with Bitcoin's SegWit upgrade. This format is considered more secure and efficient than older addresses because it facilitates error detection and offers more advanced features.According to experts, whales' large transfers to exchanges do not always directly translate to selling pressure. Sometimes, such transactions are considered simply consolidation between wallets, security moves, or liquidity tests. However, assets transferred to major exchanges like Binance naturally attract investor attention and can create uncertainty in the market in the short term.In recent months, the revival of wallets that have been inactive for 10 years or more is particularly noteworthy. Miner wallets dating back to 2009-2010 and addresses of OG investors dating back to 2013-2014 have experienced repeated activity throughout the summer. This trend, along with Bitcoin approaching $100,000, raises the possibility of profit-taking for long-term investors.While high-volume wallet movements can increase volatility in the short term, they also make the supply-demand balance in the market more visible in the long term. Therefore, whale transfers remain a topic of discussion for analysts as well as traders.As of writing, Bitcoin price is trading around $111,100.
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27 Aug 2025
Nasdaq-Listed Company Registers $5 Billion in Shares: Bitcoin Treasury Grows
Nasdaq-listed healthcare services company KindlyMD has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for automatic "shelf registration" for the distribution of up to $5 billion in stock. The company's move follows its recent purchase of $679 million in Bitcoin (BTC) through its subsidiary, Nakamoto Holdings.In its filing, KindlyMD emphasized its commitment to Bitcoin as a long-term treasury reserve asset. The company stated, "We view Bitcoin as our primary treasury reserve and are committed to our long-term BTC accumulation strategy."Shelf registration is a process that gives companies the flexibility to sell stock for a specific period. This allows KindlyMD to finance its growth plans by providing easier access to the capital markets. The filing states that not only common stock but also various financial instruments can be distributed. The distribution process is carried out in the U.S. by institutions such as Cantor Fitzgerald, TD Securities, and B. Riley Securities. On the Canadian side, the transaction will be made through intermediary institutions such as Canaccord Genuity.The company's "Well-Known Seasoned Issuer" (WKSI) status is also a noteworthy detail. While this designation allows the company to act more quickly and flexibly in high-volume share issuances, it also carries greater risks against market volatility.A new player in the Bitcoin treasury trendKindlyMD's Bitcoin strategy began after its merger with Nakamoto Holdings. The company initially purchased 5,744 BTC, joining the trend of adding cryptocurrency to corporate balance sheets. Previously, MicroStrategy's massive BTC purchases under the banner "Strategy" inspired many corporate companies.Today, not only KindlyMD but also companies like France-based semiconductor manufacturer Sequans Communications are taking similar steps. Sequans recently filed for a stock sale of up to $200 million and announced that the majority of the proceeds will be directed towards Bitcoin acquisitions. Analysts say such Bitcoin-focused treasury strategies could lead to a new equilibrium in the crypto market. Jay Jo, senior analyst at Tiger Research, notes that KindlyMD's move provides an advantage in raising capital, but risks also increase during periods of high volatility.Spartan Group co-founder Kelvin Koh commented, "Institutional crypto investments have accelerated with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the US. This has normalized Bitcoin on balance sheets. However, this trend could lead to a withdrawal of liquidity from the altcoin market."KindlyMD's shares fell 12% to $8.07 on the Nasdaq in the last trading day, while the price of Bitcoin rose 1% to $111,093.
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27 Aug 2025
Trump Declares War on Fed: Lisa Cook Crisis Shakes Markets
US President Donald Trump announced earlier this week that he had dismissed Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors. In the White House announcement, Trump cited allegations that Cook forged documents in a mortgage application. However, it is clear that Cook has not faced any charges, has not appeared in court, and there is no final decision.Cook, in a statement through his attorney, Abbe David Lowell, denied the decision, saying, "Trump has no legal basis to remove me." Cook, who has served on the Fed since 2022 and was reappointed to a full term in 2023, will actually serve until January 2038. Cook's team has declared Trump's decision "illegal" and announced that they will file a lawsuit.Legal Basis DebateTrump is citing a provision in the Fed's charter that grants the president the right to remove a member "for cause." According to him, the mortgage fraud allegation is sufficient for this "justification." However, legal experts disagree. No president has ever attempted to dismiss a Fed member in this manner. Experts say Trump's move will be tested in court, and if it prevails, it could pave the way for similar dismissals of other Fed members.Trump has long targeted the Fed, demanding a looser monetary policy stance. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement opening the door to a rate cut led to speculation that Trump's pressure was effective. Now, there is talk of replacing Lisa Cook with more "dovish" figures close to Trump.The crisis has also reverberated through the markets. IG analyst Tony Sycamore said, "Trump's dismissal of Cook, following the pressure on Powell, has once again brought the Fed's independence into question. This undermines the impartiality of monetary policy." Christopher Wong of OCBC commented, “The pressure on the dollar stems from concerns that the Fed will not be able to act independently of political interference.”Bitcoin and the dollar reactTrump's statements triggered volatility not only in the dollar but also in crypto markets. Bitcoin faced rapid selling pressure in the Asian and European sessions following the news. The price of BTC fell to $108,666 overnight. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $109,653. The daily loss is approximately 0.4%, with a 24-hour trading range of $109,214 to $112,815. According to market commentators, questions about the Fed's independence are weakening the dollar's credibility. While this may create volatility in the price of Bitcoin in the short term, it could encourage investors to turn to "hard assets" like gold and Bitcoin in the long term.
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26 Aug 2025
Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Crypto Market Liquidation: What Happened to Bitcoin and ETH?
The cryptocurrency market, which entered the week with a sharp surge, was shaken by the liquidation of nearly $10 million in leveraged positions. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) investors, in particular, experienced heavy losses, and market volatility became the most notable headline of the new week. Ethereum in the spotlight, Bitcoin closely watchedAccording to Coinglass data, $320 million of total liquidations hit Ethereum investors, while $277 million occurred in Bitcoin positions. Additionally, approximately $90 million in additional losses were recorded in Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE).The price of ETH fell sharply from $4,700 to $4,400, while Bitcoin retreated to $110,200. Analysts indicate that this move was due to both overleveraged positions and weakness in the S&P 500. The sharp correction in ETH, in particular, created a knock-on effect as leveraged positions were liquidated. Volatility Hits RecordMarket data reveals a dramatic increase in volatility following the sharp market volatility. Bitcoin's daily volatility jumped from 15% to 38%, while Ethereum's rate rose from 41% to 70%. This pattern suggests a particularly fragile structure on the ETH side. The fact that leveraged positions were predominantly opened on ETH caused this asset to experience sharp declines during the correction.A similar pattern prevails in the options markets. In both BTC and ETH, investors have been heavily focused on put options over the past two weeks. In other words, market participants are seeking protection against potential further declines.According to experts, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin has signaled a negative signal by falling below its 100-day moving average, which it has held for a long time. Furthermore, the drop below the Ichimoku cloud has strengthened the short-term downtrend for BTC. According to analysts, critical supports for BTC are at $105,390 and $100,928.While Ethereum remains above its 100-day moving average for now, rising volatility and the increasing hedging trend in the options market raise the possibility of a price pullback to $4,000. CME data shows a record level of short positions opened in ETH futures, reflecting the cautious stance of institutional investors.Expectations for the coming daysImportant developments are also on the horizon that will shape the markets on the macro front. US GDP data to be released on August 28th and employment figures to be released in early September could directly impact risk-on assets. According to Deribit data, the market is pricing a 35% probability of BTC testing $100,000 by the end of September, while the probability of ETH pulling back to $4,000 has increased to 55%. In short, while the liquidation of leveraged positions may provide short-term market relief, volatility remains high and risks, particularly on the Ethereum side, are more pronounced. The coming days will require investors to exercise increased caution, both in terms of technical levels and macro data.
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26 Aug 2025
The 7-Year Bitcoin Whale Awakens: Billions Flow into ETH
One of the major Bitcoin whales, known for its silence in the crypto market, has resurfaced after seven years of inactivity. According to data from blockchain analysis firms, the owner of the giant wallet sold a significant amount of Bitcoin (BTC) and redirected these assets to Ethereum (ETH). This move sparked both surprise and curiosity in the market.A massive Bitcoin inheritance flowed into ETHAccording to analysis firm Lookonchain, the wallet in question acquired 100,784 BTC seven years ago. These funds, which remained dormant for a long time, were reactivated in a series of transactions in recent days. The whale sold some of his BTC holdings, raising 62,914 ETH (approximately $270 million) from the spot market. Not content with this, the investor opened a long position of 135,265 ETH (approximately $580 million). According to Spot On Chain's summary, in just the last two days, these whales sold a total of 4,621 BTC at an average price of $113,265. They then bought and staked approximately 82,398 ETH at $4,292. These transactions, combined with the massive long positions opened on the Hyperliquid exchange, create a strong message of confidence in Ethereum. Multiple wallets, one strategyInterestingly, the on-chain data isn't limited to a single wallet. Lookonchain has identified at least six different wallets believed to belong to the same investor or group. These wallets currently hold 83,585 BTC (approximately $9.45 billion). This means the whale's total reserves remain substantial.Arkham Intelligence data also confirms these transactions. Shared screenshots show that BTC, which has been entering exchanges like HTX since 2018, has been transferred to Hyperliquid hot wallets in recent weeks, followed by ETH purchases.The timing is strikingThe whale's shift from Bitcoin to Ethereum coincides with a critical period in the market. Bitcoin fell to $112,000 today, testing a two-week low. Meanwhile, Ethereum is gaining strength, gradually approaching its 2021 ATH of $4,878.This scenario reinforces the logic behind investors' short-term shift towards Ethereum over Bitcoin. The trend in spot crypto ETFs also supports this. According to SoSoValue data, on Thursday alone, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $194.3 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $287.6 million.In recent weeks, not only this wallet but also other "sleeping" Bitcoin whales have begun to reactivate. Billions of dollars worth of BTC are being transferred from wallets that have been dormant for years. With the market near historic highs, whales' strategies could reshape investor expectations for the future.
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22 Aug 2025
What Time Is Powell's Jackson Hole Meeting? Crypto Markets Hold Their Breath
Global markets are focused on US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech today at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The annual event in Wyoming is dubbed the "Oscars of monetary policy." This year's gathering holds a special significance: Powell will be on the Jackson Hole stage for the last time, as his term ends in May 2026.Markets fixated on the 5:00 PM messagePowell's speech will begin at 5:00 PM Turkish time. While the main theme of the symposium is "Labor Markets in Transition," all eyes will be on the Fed's monetary policy signals. The possibility of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting in September is particularly central to market pricing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a greater than 73% chance of a 0.25 percentage point cut.Within the Fed, disagreements persist. While Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid remain cautious, Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller are more dovish in favor of rate cuts.A Speech That Will Define Powell's LegacyJackson Hole is known as a platform where Fed chairs deliver historic messages. Powell's dovish statements in 2021 reassured markets and sparked a major rally in Bitcoin. His 2022 speech, a year later, took a sternly hawkish tone, triggering a sell-off in stocks and cryptocurrencies. While the 2023 speech was met with mixed reactions, expectations for 2025 are much higher: This speech is thought to define Powell's legacy.Economists say Powell could signal not only the rate cut process but also the Fed's long-term framework. In particular, the official end of the "average inflation targeting" policy, adopted in 2020 and allowing inflation to occasionally exceed its 2% target, is on the agenda. Such a move could signal a return to tighter inflation targeting by the Fed.Powell's speech also comes at a time of increasing political pressure. US President Donald Trump has been criticizing Powell for months for not cutting interest rates and calling for his resignation. The Trump administration's actions, which have cast doubt on central bank independence, are leading to increased scrutiny of the Fed's decisions. This situation is compounded by macroeconomic uncertainties: weak employment data, mixed inflation indicators, geopolitical risks, and political pressures within the US are making investors nervous.A double-edged scenario for crypto marketsPowell's Jackson Hole message is critical not only for Wall Street but also for crypto markets. Bitcoin is currently trading around $113,000. According to analysts, Powell's dovish tone could provide Bitcoin with a new "growth stimulus." Some commentators even believe a "Bitcoin Supercycle" scenario similar to 2021 could be triggered again. Conversely, hawkish messages could dampen investor risk appetite, increasing selling pressure on both stocks and crypto assets. Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau offers a cautious perspective, saying, "It's not crypto-specific issues that are dragging markets down, but macroeconomic uncertainty."
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22 Aug 2025
Fed Officials' Interest Rate Statements Before Jackson Hole
Monetary policy discussions surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and uncertainties ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium have caused volatility in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies. The statements made on August 21st have investors focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday.Fed's target: inflation againThe latest statement from the Boston Fed emphasized that the US inflation rate is still well above its 2% target. The bank stated that it is committed to bringing inflation back to this level and that current monetary policy will be maintained accordingly. These statements temporarily dampened market expectations of a rate cut.Despite this, the comments of former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard attracted attention. Bullard stated that he believes the Fed will cut interest rates in September. He also stated that he has held discussions with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen regarding the Fed chairmanship. Bullard stated that current interest rates are high and that a 100 basis point cut by 2026 could be on the agenda. What do market expectations and FedWatch data indicate?According to the CME's "FedWatch" tool, the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged in September is measured at only 20.9%. In contrast, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 79.1%. This suggests that the general market expectation is for interest rates to soften. The minutes from the Fed's July meeting revealed that policymakers' concerns about high inflation outweighed concerns about a slowdown in the labor market. This led to a slight strengthening of the dollar. However, analysts note that the July data is outdated and markets are primarily focused on Powell's Jackson Hole speech.Sharp Volatility in Crypto MarketsMacro uncertainties also had a strong impact on the crypto market. Bitcoin fell below $113,000 intraday on August 21st, falling to $112,800. Although it recovered from this level, volatility worried investors. According to market data, more than $500 million in leveraged positions were liquidated. Overly leveraged long positions, in particular, accelerated the decline.Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs traded in the US have also experienced four consecutive days of gains. According to data from Bloomberg, total investor outflows reached $1.9 billion. This highlights the weakening of risk appetite ahead of Powell's message.The Importance of the Jackson Hole SpeechMarkets are now fixated on Powell's messages at Jackson Hole. A dovish tone, meaning one that highlights growth risks and supports interest rate cut expectations, could generate renewed upward momentum in crypto assets. However, a hawkish tone, coupled with a firmer stance against high inflation, could deepen the decline in the value of risky assets.Technical levels are also being closely monitored for Bitcoin. According to analysts, $110,000 represents psychological support, $115,000 represents short-term stability, and $120,000 represents resistance. These levels could be decisive in determining the market's direction following Powell's speech.In summary, both the Fed's commitment to inflation and Powell's speech in Jackson Hole signal a critical period for crypto markets in the coming days. Investors are closely watching to see how the balance shifts between the strengthening dollar and interest rate cut expectations.
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21 Aug 2025
The New Favorite of Institutions: A 10-Year Bullish Scenario for Bitcoin
As crypto markets continue to attract long-term institutional interest, Bitwise Asset Management has shared a striking prediction. A new report, authored by the company's chief investment officer (CIO), Matt Hougan, suggests that Bitcoin could deliver an average annual compound return of 28% over the next 10 years.According to Bitwise's new report, "Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions," BTC will still experience high volatility, although its volatility will decrease over time. However, it will continue to exhibit low correlation compared to other major asset classes. According to Hougan, this makes Bitcoin both an attractive source of returns and a diversifier for traditional investment portfolios.Record Increase in Institutional DemandBitwise reports that demand for long-term Bitcoin assumptions is rapidly increasing. The company notes that it has received no such requests from 2017 to 2024, and that this year alone, it has received official requests for long-term forecasts from 12 different platforms. This trend is considered a signal that institutional investors are now viewing Bitcoin as a "central" portfolio element.Hougan states that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 played a critical role in this transformation. The launch of spot ETFs on national platforms in the US accelerated BTC's evolution from a "niche" asset to a "primary" investment option in the investment world.The Bitwise report notes that Bitcoin's correlation with other major asset classes remains "low." This correlation, measured by definition between -0.5 and 0.5, is particularly advantageous for institutional investors in portfolio diversification.The report offers a similar approach to the long-term market forecasts published annually by leading Wall Street institutions (such as JPMorgan, BlackRock, Vanguard, and PIMCO). However, this time, the focus is on the increasingly mature digital asset markets, and Bitcoin in particular. ETFs and corporate treasuries are gaining prominenceSpot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, currently manage over $146 billion in assets. On-chain data shows that these ETFs hold approximately 7% of Bitcoin's 21 million token supply.Institutional firms have also become significant players in this process. Publicly traded companies, led by MicroStrategy, hold over $80 billion in Bitcoin. MicroStrategy alone holds over 629,000 BTC. Most of these purchases were financed through equity issuances or bond-like instruments obtained from the companies' capital markets.Bitwise's message: Bitcoin is now mainstreamBitwise will publicly release its long-term market assumptions for Bitcoin this week. In addition to its methodology and data, it will also include side-by-side comparisons with reports from major financial institutions on traditional asset classes.
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20 Aug 2025
Major Turmoil in Crypto Markets: Why Are Bitcoin and Altcoins Declining?
Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have experienced significant price declines in recent days. Bitcoin has fallen by over 5%, falling from record highs above $124,000 to $113,500. Other major tokens like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana's SOL have also experienced corrections, dragging the broader market down. On Wall Street, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell 1.40% to $23,384 from a record high of $23,969 a week ago, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Most market commentators attributed these losses on Wall Street and the crypto markets to investor risk aversion ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at this week's Jackson Hole event. The prevailing view was that persistent inflation data could prevent Powell from meeting the market's dovish expectations. However, analysts suggest the real driver of this decline is different.What's Behind the Bitcoin decline? According to David Duong, head of institutional research at Coinbase, the primary reason for this sharp market sell-off is fear of the US government's anticipated liquidity withdrawal from the Treasury's General Account (NPL). Duong said, "Jackson Hole and the PPI are simply excuses for market participants to reduce risk ahead of the US Treasury's NPL liquidity withdrawal (approximately $400 billion) in the coming weeks. This explains why Bitcoin, along with many stocks, has lost its trend. However, we believe the path forward in September is clearer."The Treasury General Account is the US government's operating account at the Fed. It is used to collect taxes, customs duties, proceeds from securities sales, and public debt revenue, while also facilitating government payments. Just like our savings accounts, the NPL balance fluctuates daily, rising with revenues and falling with payments.The Treasury typically spends its cash balance during periods of fiscal uncertainty, such as the persistent debt ceiling, to enable the government to meet its obligations. NPL expenditures support risky assets by increasing liquidity in the system. The opposite occurs when the Treasury attempts to rebuild its balance by issuing more debt than necessary to finance its liabilities. This tends to drain liquidity from the system.According to data source MacroMicro, the NPL balance has increased from approximately $320 billion to over $500 billion since the end of July. Seeking Alpha estimates that the Treasury may need to issue $500-600 billion worth of new debt over the next two to four months to return the NPL to healthy levels.According to Delphi Digital, this restructuring is occurring under more fragile conditions than in previous years. “Compared to 2023, the financial system now faces fewer liquidity buffers, tighter balance sheet capacity, and reduced foreign demand for Treasury bills. The structural ability to absorb large-scale issuances has weakened across all major channels. If the Federal Reserve maintains its tightening stance or delays a pivot, the mismatch between supply and current demand could increase funding rates and spill over into a broader range of risky assets, including crypto,” said Marcus Wu, research analyst at Delphi Digital.Wu added that the recent large-scale restructuring in the second half of 2024 was offset by other pro-liquidity developments, such as the $2 trillion in the Fed’s RRP facility, healthy bank reserves, and strong foreign demand for debt. However, these factors have eroded over time, leaving the current liquidity environment vulnerable to disruption, as Wu noted. Profit-taking and macroeconomic developments are driving Bitcoin and altcoinsFurthermore, according to experts, Bitcoin and Ethereum also experienced declines due to profit-taking and repositioning ahead of Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech.With the current market consolidation, analysts said investors are closely monitoring exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and macroeconomic catalysts. After a record-breaking July, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a slowdown in inflows and even some net outflows this month. Ether ETFs, which saw strong inflows in the first two weeks of August, have also recently begun to see outflows.Investors are now closely watching the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July meeting, due out on Wednesday, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. "The most important event in the near term is Powell's Jackson Hole speech this Friday," said Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research. "The market is already expecting a rate cut in September. If he says something contradictory, expect a sharp correction. However, if he exhibits a more dovish tone than expected, the market could rally," Chung said. Chung noted that the market movements over the past few days are a result of investors positioning themselves for the outcome of this important event, which remains uncertain.
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20 Aug 2025
Daily Market Summary – August 20, 2025 | JrKripto
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical OverviewBitcoin has been on a downward correction for some time, falling to the $113,000 region. It's safe to say it found short-term support in this region, but in a downward breakout scenario from the $112,000-$113,000 area, the $111,800 level and then the $107,300 support level are potential price reversal levels. It's worth noting that the $117,300 area is the target target after the recovery.On the Ethereum side, after a breathless rise to the $4,800 region, we see it's undergoing a natural pullback. The $4,050, $3,980, and $3,870 levels serve as sequential support levels. The $4,400 area will be the price's first target upon reversal.Crypto NewsThe U.S. Treasury Department has begun gathering public input on the GENIUS Act, which aims to detect illicit digital asset activity. Tether appointed former White House Crypto Council Executive Director Bo Hines as Strategic Advisor for Digital Assets and US Strategy.Robinhood US to list #SUITrump: Europeans want to end the war with Ukraine and Russia.KindlyMD purchased $5,744 BTC to expand Nakamoto's Bitcoin treasury.SharpLink purchased 143,593 ETH at approximately $4,648, bringing its total holdings to 740,760 ETH.SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will discuss the 'Crypto Project' at the WYOMING Blockchain Symposium today.Fed member Bowman: Fed employees should be allowed to own small amounts of crypto assets.CryptocurrenciesTop GainersM → Up 16.8% to $0.43772063CTC → Up 9.6% to $0.74369425GRASS → Up 8.9% to $0.78576644PUMP → Up 5.4% to $0.00300329HNT → Up 5.3% to $2.68Top LosersSNEK → Down 13.3% to $0.00450101TRIBE → Down 9.9% to $0.59775806ZORA → Down 9.2% to $0.09269117REKT → Down 8.6% to $0.07659167ADA → Down 8.5% to $0.84855968.Fear IndexBitcoin: 50 (Neutral)Ethereum: 49 (Neutral)DominanceBitcoin: 59.87% ▼ 0.36%Ethereum: 13.32% ▲ 1.28%Total Daily Net ETF InflowsBTC ETFs: -$523.30 MillionETH ERFs: -$422.20 MillionGlobal Markets and Stocks of the Most Valuable CompaniesTechnology companies in the US have surged significantly in recent months, but warnings are now coming that these levels are risky. As expectations for a Fed interest rate cut weakened, tech stocks began selling off, and all US stock markets declined. Expectations that the Russia-Ukraine talks will be prolonged further exacerbated these declines. US, European, and Asian stock markets were generally negative this morning. While positive talks between Trump, Zelenskyy, and EU leaders yesterday supported European stock markets, the impact of the US sell-off is dampening global risk appetite. The Fed meeting minutes will be released today, and inflation data from the UK, Germany, and the Eurozone will be closely monitored.NVIDIA (NVDA) → $4.29 trillion market capitalization, $175.64 per share, fell 3.50%.Microsoft (MSFT) → $3.79 trillion market capitalization, $509.77 per share, fell 1.42%.Apple (AAPL) → $3.42 trillion market capitalization, $230.56 per share, fell 0.14%.Alphabet (GOOG) → $2.44 trillion market capitalization, $202.49 per share, fell 0.88%. Amazon.com (AMZN) → $2.43 trillion market capitalization, $228.01 per share, fell 1.50%.Borsa Istanbul Updates and Most Valuable CompaniesAccording to data released by TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute), the unemployment rate rose to 8.6% quarterly. The idle labor force reached a record high of 32%. While employment decreased in industry and agriculture, services and construction saw increases. Turkey's net foreign investment position was -$329.4 billion in June. The BIST-100 index closed positive for the third consecutive day with a limited increase, but failed to surpass the 11,000 level. Trading volume reached its highest level in recent years. Food retailers were negatively impacted, while automotive and iron/steel sectors stood out. The US decision to increase tariffs on iron/steel and aluminum is dampening global risk appetite. Markets are also awaiting the Fed Chair's announcements on Friday. The BIST is expected to remain tight. QNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → Market capitalization of 2.39 trillion TL, price per share of 714.50 TL, decreased by 9.96%.Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → Market capitalization of 786.14 billion TL, price per share of 177.20 TL, increased by 2.78%.Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → Market capitalization of 600.60 billion TL, price per share of 144.40 TL, increased by 0.98%.Turkish Airlines (THYAO) → Market capitalization of 467.13 billion TL, price per share of 338.50 TL, changed by 0.00%.Koç Holding (KCHOL) → Market capitalization of 454.69 billion TL, price per share of 179.70 TL, increased by 0.22%.Precious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,363 TLSilver: 48.93 TLPlatinum: 1738 TLDollar: 40.92 TLEuro: 47.63 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
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20 Aug 2025