Bitcoin started the Aug. 31-Sept. 6 week at around $77,900. Expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in September and escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed the market into a more cautious mood following last week’s gains.
The main focus of the week will be the U.S. employment report due Friday. On the crypto side, Russia’s new law, Mina’s Mesa upgrade, delisting decisions from Binance and BitMEX, and supply developments involving SUI, EIGEN, ENA and HYPE will be closely watched.
U.S. employment data could reshape Fed expectations
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech pushed the probability of a September interest rate hike to around 60%. Warsh said inflation remained high and further tightening could be needed to restore price stability.
The first major test of this pricing will arrive on Tuesday, Sept. 1. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July’s JOLTS job openings data at 5:00 p.m. Turkey time.
The market expects the number of job openings to remain near 7.4 million. The ISM manufacturing PMI, scheduled for release at the same time, is expected to come in at 55.1.
The ADP private-sector employment report will be released on Wednesday, Sept. 2, at 3:15 p.m. Turkey time. ADP’s official calendar confirms the date, while market expectations point to an increase of 45,000 jobs.
The Fed will also publish its Beige Book report on Wednesday at 9:00 p.m. Turkey time. The report will offer insight into employment, wages, prices and how businesses assess the economic outlook.
Weekly initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday at 3:30 p.m. Turkey time. Economists expect 205,000 applications, compared with the previous reading of 203,000.
The ISM services PMI will follow at 5:00 p.m. Turkey time. The index is expected to rise from 54.1 to 54.4.
The strongest market reaction of the week could form around Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Turkey time. According to the BLS calendar, the report will cover employment and wage changes in August.
The market expects the U.S. economy to have added 50,000 jobs. Employment declined by 23,000 in July.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.2% monthly and 3% annually.
Strong employment and wage figures could increase the likelihood of a rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting. A weaker result could strengthen expectations that the Fed will remain on hold despite Warsh’s inflation warnings.
Russia’s sweeping crypto law takes effect
Russia’s new regulations for the digital currency market will take effect on Sept. 1. According to the Central Bank of Russia, both qualified and non-qualified investors will be able to trade cryptocurrencies through licensed intermediaries.
Annual purchases by non-qualified investors will be limited to 300,000 rubles at each intermediary. These users will also have to pass a suitability test before trading.
Qualified investors will also be subject to testing, although they will not face limits on assets or transaction amounts. The regulation brings foreign stablecoins under Russia’s cryptocurrency rules as well.
Licensed crypto exchanges and digital asset custodians will operate under the new system. The law does not allow cryptocurrencies to be used for payments for goods and services within Russia.
Exporters and importers will be able to use cryptocurrencies for cross-border payments. Existing companies have until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses and bring their operations into compliance with the new rules.
Eurozone inflation and oil prices in focus
Eurostat will release the eurozone’s preliminary August inflation data on Tuesday, Sept. 1, at noon Turkey time. Eurostat’s previous report put July inflation at 2.9%.
Market forecasts for August are concentrated between 3.2% and 3.3%. Rising energy costs are expected to be the main factor pushing headline inflation higher.
Brent crude rose by more than 2% on Monday, approaching $90.60. U.S. attacks on Iran and Tehran’s response renewed concerns over global supplies.
Persistently high oil prices could increase interest rate pressure on the Fed and the European Central Bank. This environment may affect risk assets, including Bitcoin, through the U.S. dollar and government bond yields.
The meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors is also taking place in Asheville from Aug. 31 to Sept. 1. According to the U.S. Treasury’s program, the agenda includes global growth, trade imbalances, inflation, public debt and the war with Iran.
Mina network to activate Mesa upgrade
Mina Protocol will conduct its Mesa mainnet upgrade on Thursday, Sept. 3. According to the project’s detailed migration schedule, the network will stop accepting transactions at 1:00 p.m. Turkey time.
Block production is expected to pause temporarily at 6:00 p.m. The Mesa package will be released at 7:30 p.m., with the first Mesa block expected at 9:00 p.m.
Mesa will increase zkApp capacity and shorten block intervals. The upgrade will also introduce an automatic upgrade mechanism designed to simplify future protocol transitions.
Existing zkApps will need to update their verification keys using o1js 3.0. Exchanges may suspend MINA deposits and withdrawals while the network is offline.
The Mina team will make its final “proceed or postpone” decision on Aug. 31. If an insufficient number of validators upgrade to the required version, the project may set a new date.
Zilliqa is also expected to conduct a block-height-based hard fork on Sept. 2. The estimated activation time is 3:58 p.m. Turkey time, although this could change depending on the speed of block production.
The update aims to transfer some older wallet balances frozen due to a security issue in the Ledger application to new addresses. Zilliqa’s incident page shows that transactions on the legacy network have been temporarily suspended.
Binance and BitMEX to implement delistings
BitMEX will delist 11 perpetual futures contracts on Wednesday, Sept. 2, at 3:00 p.m. Turkey time. The exchange will close open contracts through early settlement at the same time.
BitMEX’s announcement shows that the decision applies only to derivatives contracts. Users should review the automatic settlement conditions and reference price calculations.
Binance will end spot trading for ICON, Secret and Storj on Thursday, Sept. 3, at 6:00 a.m. Turkey time. According to the official announcement, all spot pairs involving ICX, SCRT and STORJ will be removed.
Open spot orders involving these assets will be canceled at the same time. Binance will stop crediting deposits made after 6:00 a.m. Turkey time on Sept. 4.
Withdrawals will remain available until 6:00 a.m. Turkey time on Nov. 3. The exchange said it may convert any remaining tokens into stablecoins after the deadline, although the conversion is not guaranteed.
ENA, SUI, EIGEN and HYPE supply set to expand
Sept. 1 stands out as the busiest day on this week’s token calendar. All dollar figures are approximate because their values will change with spot prices.
Sui will unlock approximately 13.53 million SUI on Sept. 1. The increase represents 0.33% of the circulating supply and is worth around $9.6 million at current prices.
EigenCloud will release 36.82 million EIGEN on the same day. The tokens are worth approximately $6.9 million and represent 5.48% of the circulating supply.
Ethena’s broader tracked supply schedule includes 275 million ENA. According to Tokenomics.com, the allocation is worth around $40.4 million and covers distributions to investors, the team, the community and the foundation.
IOTA will make 12.37 million tokens available for circulation on Sept. 2. The current unlock schedule shows that the tokens, worth approximately $500,000, will be distributed among the IOTA DLT Foundation, the IOTA Foundation and the Tangle Ecosystem Association.
The week’s largest potential supply event by dollar value will take place on Hyperliquid. Approximately 9.92 million HYPE will be unlocked on Sept. 6 under the monthly allocation schedule for core contributors.
Based on a HYPE price of around $80.60, the scheduled amount is worth nearly $800 million. However, the full amount is not expected to be transferred on the same day.
In previous months, there was a large gap between the amount of vested HYPE and the number of tokens actually claimed. The amount reaching the market could therefore remain well below the theoretical value of approximately $800 million.
NFT.NYC and Solana events to begin
NFT.NYC will take place at the Edison Ballroom in New York from Sept. 1 to Sept. 3. According to the event’s official website, the program is divided into 12 categories, including digital art, gaming, infrastructure, brands and on-chain finance.
Solana Startup Village will be held in Amsterdam from Aug. 31 to Sept. 5. The first three days of the program will feature workshops focused on DeFi, security and privacy.
The Common S3nse conference and hackathon will take place on Sept. 4 and Sept. 5 as part of Cypherpunk Week in Amsterdam. The event will focus on privacy technologies and decentralized infrastructure.
There are no confirmed large-scale earnings reports from crypto companies or high-profile token launches scheduled for the week. U.S. economic data, oil prices, Russia’s regulations and the supply schedules of existing tokens will therefore carry greater weight.
This week’s 25-event crypto calendar
- Aug. 31-Sept. 1: G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting
- Aug. 31-Sept. 5: Solana Startup Village Amsterdam
- Sept. 1: Russia’s sweeping crypto law takes effect
- Sept. 1, 3:00 a.m. Turkey time: SUI token unlock
- Sept. 1: EIGEN token unlock
- Sept. 1: ENA supply event
- Sept. 1, noon Turkey time: Eurozone preliminary August inflation
- Sept. 1-3: NFT.NYC 2026
- Sept. 1, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. JOLTS job openings
- Sept. 1, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI
- Sept. 2, 3:15 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. ADP private-sector employment
- Sept. 2: IOTA token unlock
- Sept. 2, 3:00 p.m. Turkey time: BitMEX delists 11 perpetual futures contracts
- Sept. 2, around 3:58 p.m. Turkey time: Zilliqa hard fork
- Sept. 2, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. factory orders
- Sept. 2, 9:00 p.m. Turkey time: Fed Beige Book
- Sept. 3, 6:00 a.m. Turkey time: Binance ends trading for ICX, SCRT and STORJ
- Sept. 3, 1:00-9:00 p.m. Turkey time: Mina Mesa mainnet upgrade
- Sept. 3, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims
- Sept. 3, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. July trade balance
- Sept. 3, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks
- Sept. 3, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. ISM services PMI
- Sept. 4, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and wage data
- Sept. 4-5: Common S3nse conference and hackathon
- Sept. 6: Planned unlock of approximately 9.92 million HYPE
