Bitcoin started the week of September 28-October 4 at around $82,900. Ether was trading near $2,650 at the time of writing, while rising oil prices and expectations of further rate increases limited risk appetite.
The main events of the week will be the US PCE inflation report and Friday’s employment data. On the crypto calendar, votes that could determine Balancer’s future, the Base and Hedera upgrades, Router Protocol’s shutdown and five token unlocks worth approximately $307 million stand out.
PCE and jobs data will test Fed expectations
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the August personal income and outlays report on Wednesday, September 30, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will also include headline and core PCE inflation, closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
Annual core PCE inflation stood at 3.3% in July. The monthly price change in the August report will indicate how far higher oil costs have spread into core goods and services.
The third estimate of second-quarter economic growth will also arrive on September 30 at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The BEA will release corporate profit and industry-level growth figures at the same time, meaning the initial market reaction may extend beyond the headline GDP number.
The first major employment indicator will be the August JOLTS report on Tuesday, September 29, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Job openings and the quits rate will provide new signals about labor demand.
The ADP private-sector employment report will be published on Wednesday, September 30, at 3:15 p.m. Türkiye time. ADP and the official payroll report use different methodologies, so the two figures may not necessarily move in the same direction.
The strongest market reaction of the week could form around the US employment report on Friday, October 2, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will cover September nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and wage growth.
A recent Reuters poll forecasts an increase of 100,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. These figures are market expectations; the official results will be published on Friday.
Fed officials will speak after the rate increase
The Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Futures markets currently assign an approximately 65% probability to another increase at the October meeting.
Michael Barr will discuss the economic outlook on Tuesday, September 29, at 7:40 p.m. Türkiye time. Christopher Waller will speak about payment systems at the Sibos conference in Miami at 10:00 p.m. the same day.
Philip Jefferson’s speech on Thursday, October 1, at 8:30 p.m. Türkiye time will focus directly on the US economy and monetary policy. The Fed’s official calendar also includes separate appearances by Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook covering regulation, economic data and central banking.
Investors will focus on how officials balance inflation and employment risks. A significant surprise in the PCE or payroll data could increase the market impact of these speeches.
Another rate increase is expected in Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its policy decision on Tuesday, September 29, at 7:30 a.m. Türkiye time. The governor’s press conference will begin at 8:30 a.m.
Market pricing indicates an approximately 95% probability that the cash rate will increase by 25 basis points to 4.60%. Core inflation reaching 3.6% and high energy costs underpin expectations for another increase.
China’s official September PMI results will arrive on Wednesday, September 30, at 4:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Investors will watch whether the manufacturing index, which stood at 49.8 in August, moves above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction.
The Bank of Japan will publish its Tankan corporate survey and a summary of opinions from its September meeting on Thursday, October 1, at 2:50 a.m. Türkiye time. After the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its latest meeting, companies’ price and wage expectations will matter for yen-funded trades.
The euro area’s flash September inflation report will be released on Friday, October 2, at noon Türkiye time. Final headline inflation stood at 3.2% in August, and another increase could affect expectations for the ECB’s policy path.
Oil approaches $107 again
Brent crude started the week at around $106–$107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded in the $93–$94 range. The absence of an agreement in talks between the United States and Iran, together with Middle East shipping risks, continues to support energy prices.
Persistently high oil prices could strengthen inflation pressures through transportation, production and food costs. Bitcoin and altcoins could face tighter dollar liquidity if this outlook causes the Fed, RBA and ECB to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.
Balancer’s future goes to a vote
The Balancer community will vote until September 29 on BIP-928, which proposes an orderly wind-down of the protocol. The plan would end new business development, place eligible pools into withdrawal-only mode on October 30 and distribute the remaining treasury assets to BAL holders.
The proposal includes two “yes” options that differ over the share allocated to tetuBAL assets. A separate proposal, BIP-929, presents a restructuring option for the Balancer brand and infrastructure, making the votes more significant than a routine technical parameter change.
Horizen’s Special Council election will end on Wednesday, September 30, at 8:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The elected members will take part in the ecosystem’s governance and oversight processes.
Hedera and Base prepare network upgrades
Hedera will upgrade its mainnet to version 0.77.2 on Tuesday, September 29, between 8:00 p.m. and 8:40 p.m. Türkiye time. The project’s status page warns that brief disruptions may occur during the upgrade.
Base node operators must move their clients to version 1.4.2 before the Cobalt upgrade on Wednesday, September 30, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The release includes support for Proofs v2 snapshots and fixes for issues identified in the previous version.
Router Protocol will cease operations on the same day and burn 303,333,198 ROUTE. The amount represents approximately 30% of the token’s maximum supply, and the team said its commercialization, licensing and acquisition efforts had failed to produce a viable outcome.
Some calendars previously listed the XRPL BatchV1_1 activation for September 29. Its support process was reset, pushing activation back to October 9 at the earliest.
Solana has also not confirmed a mainnet date for Alpenglow. Neither development is therefore included among the week’s 29 events.
Upbit and Bithumb will end SNX trading
Upbit and Bithumb will terminate trading support for Synthetix on Monday, September 28, at 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchanges said the information requested from the foundation had failed to resolve their investor-protection concerns.
Bitget postponed the delisting of FHE, DRIFT, RVV and DOG, previously scheduled for September 30, following a security incident. The decision is not included in the upcoming calendar because the exchange has not announced a new date.
No high-profile spot listing or major token launch has been confirmed on leading exchanges this week. Authorities have also not announced a major crypto law taking effect or a new congressional digital asset vote with a confirmed date.
Five token unlocks will add approximately $307 million in supply
The week’s largest proportional token unlock will take place in 2Z. A total of 1.625 billion tokens will be released on October 2, worth approximately $95.4 million at spot prices at the time of writing.
The amount equals approximately 46.4% of the project’s reported market capitalization.
Canton Network will make 833.33 million community-allocated CC available on October 1. The unlock is worth approximately $94.7 million.
Ethena will unlock 275.02 million ENA on the same day. The tokens, worth approximately $73.7 million, are allocated to the team, private investors, the community and the foundation.
Sui’s October 3 unlock will release 23.38 million SUI worth approximately $27.9 million. Falcon Finance will also unlock 112.52 million FF on September 29, valued at around $15.3 million.
The five unlocks have a combined estimated value of approximately $307 million. Their dollar values will fluctuate with spot prices and should therefore be treated as approximate figures.
Conferences begin in Miami, New York and Seoul
The Bitcoin Treasuries Conference will focus on corporate Bitcoin reserve strategies in New York on September 28. The program begins at 4:00 p.m. Türkiye time and will cover balance-sheet management, custody, financing and investor communications.
Sibos will take place in Miami from September 28 to October 1. The event will cover payments, tokenization and artificial intelligence in finance, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller among the speakers.
The main Korea Blockchain Week conference will be held in Seoul from September 30 to October 1. The program will focus on real-world asset tokenization, the integration of AI and blockchain, and layer-1 and layer-2 infrastructure.
No major earnings release from a publicly traded crypto company has been confirmed for the week. The Bitcoin Treasuries Conference and Sibos will therefore carry more weight for tracking how financial companies approach digital assets.
This week’s 29-event crypto calendar
All times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.
- September 28, 9:00 a.m.: Upbit and Bithumb end trading support for SNX.
- September 28, 3:15 p.m.: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks about banking regulation.
- September 28, 4:00 p.m.: Bitcoin Treasuries Conference begins.
- September 28–October 1: Sibos takes place in Miami.
- September 29, 7:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision; press conference at 8:30 a.m.
- September 29: Approximately $15.3 million in FF unlocks.
- September 29, 5:00 p.m.: US JOLTS job openings for August.
- September 29, 7:40 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks about the economic outlook.
- September 29, 8:00–8:40 p.m.: Hedera v0.77.2 mainnet upgrade.
- September 29, 10:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks about payment systems.
- September 29: Voting ends on Balancer proposals BIP-928 and BIP-929.
- September 30, 4:30 a.m.: China’s official September PMI data.
- September 30, 3:15 p.m.: US ADP private-sector employment report.
- September 30, 3:30 p.m.: US PCE inflation for August.
- September 30, 3:30 p.m.: Third estimate of US second-quarter GDP and corporate profits.
- September 30, 8:00 p.m.: Horizen Special Council election ends.
- September 30, 9:00 p.m.: Final upgrade deadline for Base Cobalt.
- September 30: Router Protocol ceases operations and burns ROUTE.
- September 30–October 1: Korea Blockchain Week’s main conference.
- October 1, 2:50 a.m.: BOJ Tankan survey and summary of opinions from the September meeting.
- October 1: Approximately $94.7 million in CC unlocks.
- October 1: Approximately $73.7 million in ENA unlocks.
- October 1, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.
- October 1, 5:00 p.m.: US ISM manufacturing PMI for September.
- October 1, 8:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks about monetary policy.
- October 2, noon: Euro-area flash inflation for September.
- October 2, 3:30 p.m.: US September employment, unemployment and wage data.
- October 2: Approximately $95.4 million in 2Z unlocks.
- October 3: Approximately $27.9 million in SUI unlocks.
The US employment report and PCE inflation could determine the broader direction of the crypto market this week. Oil remaining above $100, the expected RBA rate increase and messages from Fed officials could also increase volatility around Bitcoin’s $83,000 price level.
