JPMorgan analysts estimate that approximately $50 billion has flowed into digital assets since the start of the year. The bank said recovering ETF demand and growing futures positions supported the outlook for the fourth quarter. However, spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP ETFs collectively recorded approximately $312 million in net outflows on October 8.
In an October 7 report, the analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou calculated that current inflows represented an annualized pace of approximately $66 billion. While that figure rose from $52 billion in May, it remained roughly half of last year’s pace.
The annualized figure represents the amount that would accumulate if the current pace of inflows continued for a full year. The $66 billion figure therefore measures something different from the total inflows recorded so far this year.
ETF Recovery Accompanied by Daily Outflows
According to the report, Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases and funding for crypto startups were the main sources of capital entering the digital asset market during the first half of the year. Meanwhile, withdrawals from crypto ETFs weighed on overall flows.
ETFs experienced particularly heavy outflows in May and June. However, flows began recovering in August, pushing the year-to-date total back into positive territory.
The picture changes when measured over a longer period. Analysts noted that cumulative ETF flows remained negative when calculated from October 10, 2025, when the crypto market downturn began.
The recovery in recent months has therefore yet to fully offset earlier withdrawals. Although ETFs have returned to net inflows for 2026, they have not closed the cumulative shortfall recorded since October 2025.
XRP ETFs Bucked the Trend on October 8
Daily figures for October 8 showed that ETF demand continued to fluctuate. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $244 million in net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost $72.54 million and Solana ETFs saw withdrawals of $3.32 million.
XRP spot ETFs, meanwhile, attracted $8.17 million in net inflows. That brought the combined daily net outflow across ETFs tracking the four assets to $311.69 million.
Bitcoin funds accounted for the largest withdrawals, followed by Ethereum ETFs. Inflows into XRP funds offset only a small portion of the money leaving funds tracking the other three assets.
These daily figures cover a different time frame from JPMorgan’s assessment of the broader recovery. The October 8 flows also occurred after the bank’s October 7 report.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Futures Positions Expanded
Institutional positions in Bitcoin and Ether futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) increased over the past two months. After a slow start to the year, activity strengthened toward the end of the third quarter.
According to JPMorgan’s calculations, Bitcoin futures positioning surpassed its previous peak. Ether positions approached the high recorded in October 2025.
Capital flows consequently broadened beyond corporate purchases and venture funding, which had provided most of the support during the first half. Analysts linked the growth in ETF flows and futures positions to greater participation from retail and institutional investors.
The report also noted that trend-following traders had begun rebuilding long positions in Bitcoin and Ether. Meanwhile, leverage indicators in perpetual futures remained above historical averages despite declining from their previous peaks.
JPMorgan Expanded Its Flow Calculations
The bank combines several investment channels when estimating capital flows into digital assets. Crypto fund inflows and outflows, flows implied by CME futures, and capital raised by crypto startups form the core components of the calculation.
Digital asset purchases by publicly listed miners and corporate treasuries also contribute to the total estimate. In its latest report, the analysts expanded the calculation to include purchases by private companies, private mining businesses and government-related entities.
The approximately $50 billion estimate therefore extends beyond money entering ETFs. It provides a measure of total capital flowing into the digital asset ecosystem through various channels.
Miners Remained Net Sellers
According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin miners recorded approximately $1.8 billion in net sales this year. Publicly listed mining companies accounted for most of the selling.
These companies sold newly mined Bitcoin to finance spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, while some also reduced their existing reserves. The mining sector therefore followed a different pattern from corporate treasuries making purchases.
The bank concluded that stronger ETF flows and futures positioning in the third quarter had created positive momentum heading into the fourth quarter. However, the October 8 net outflows showed that daily fund demand remained uneven despite the broader recovery.
