The recent sharp pullback in crypto-related stocks has refocused investor attention on this sector. Bernstein, a global research and brokerage firm, stated in its latest analysis that crypto-focused company stocks are trading at approximately a 60% discount compared to their recent peaks. The company emphasized that this situation stems from a weak short-term market sentiment and does not fully reflect long-term growth potential. According to analysts, while companies serving the crypto asset infrastructure (especially exchanges, brokerage firms, and tokenization platforms) have experienced significant value losses, growth continues in their core business models. Areas such as stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets, and the tokenization of real-world assets continue to diversify the revenue streams of these companies. Nevertheless, it is stated that market pricing reflects short-term uncertainties rather than current growth dynamics.
Weak first-quarter expectations, but strong long-term growth signals
Bernstein predicts that this weak outlook may continue, particularly until the first-quarter financials of the year. However, analysts point out that the market may bottom out after the first-quarter earnings reports. This view aligns with assessments that the pressure created by recent US regulations, and particularly developments surrounding stablecoin issuer Circle, may have been exaggerated. Bernstein, while maintaining his "outperform" recommendation for crypto exchange Coinbase, lowered his target price from $440 to $330 but continues to expect long-term growth. Despite a short-term decline in trading volume, the company's revenue is expected to grow by approximately 26% compound annual until 2027. According to analysts, stablecoin revenue is the biggest contributor. Coinbase's strong position in this area is supported by its earning approximately half of USDC revenue. Furthermore, subscription and service revenues act as a buffer against volatility in crypto prices, allowing the company to create a more stable revenue structure without relying solely on spot trading volume. Similarly, a positive outlook is maintained for Robinhood shares. While Bernstein lowered his target price for the company from $160 to $130, he states that the growth expectation remains. It is stated that prediction markets, in particular, could play a significant role in Robinhood's future revenue. According to analysts, this segment could account for approximately 10% of total revenue by 2026.
Robinhood's diversification into different revenue streams, including margin trading, subscriptions, and banking services, in addition to crypto transactions, is a significant advantage. This diversification makes the company more resilient to volatility in the crypto market.
On the other hand, the "outperform" rating for Figure Technology Solutions was maintained, while the target price was revised from $72 to $67. The company stands out as a major player in the blockchain-based tokenization space. The fact that its revenue is not directly tied to crypto prices distinguishes it from other companies.
Bernstein expects Figure's loan issuance volume to reach $12.8 billion by 2026. The company is projected to continue its growth, particularly through housing loans, new financing products, and expansion in its marketplace model. The fact that monthly loan issuance exceeded $1 billion as of March also supports this trend. Looking at the overall picture, Bernstein analysts believe the current decline in crypto-related stocks stems not from structural weakness, but from macroeconomic pressures and market sentiment. Therefore, current valuations are declining faster than the companies' fundamental performance, and there is potential for a recovery in the medium to long term.
