The crypto market is on the verge of a new volatility, under pressure from billions of dollars worth of option contracts expiring on May 1st and the impact of global developments. The closing of options, particularly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, could be decisive in determining the direction of price movements in the short term.
Billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring
According to data from Deribit, a leading derivatives market platform, approximately $2.14 billion worth of cryptocurrency options are expiring today. Bitcoin options account for $1.74 billion of this, while Ethereum options are worth approximately $394-400 million.
Approximately 23,000 Bitcoin option contracts are expected to close, and the put/call ratio is noteworthy at 1.10. This ratio indicates that sell (put) positions are higher than buy (call) positions, suggesting a cautious outlook among investors. The maximum pain point, defined as the price level at which options become worthless, is around $76,000. The fact that Bitcoin's spot price is trading very close to this level strengthens the expectation that the price may stabilize around this range.
Looking at the option distribution, a high trading volume is noticeable between $75,500 and $77,000. This indicates that the market is still in a short-term squeeze and searching for direction. Deribit analysts point out that the price may consolidate around $76,000, especially after the expiry date. The fact that 95% of options are likely to close above this level, according to current data, suggests that the price may find equilibrium without experiencing a sharp downward break.
However, indicators shared by the on-chain data provider Glassnode reveal that Bitcoin is still trading below some critical levels. The average cost of short-term investors being around $78,900 shows that the current price is below the cost of this group. Furthermore, the fact that the $78,000 level, considered the "true market average," has not yet been surpassed suggests that upward movements may remain limited. Below, the $65,000-$70,000 range stands out as a strong support area.
What about Ethereum?
A similar picture emerges on the Ethereum side. With over 175,000 option contracts expiring, the total size reaches approximately $400 million. At first glance, the put/call ratio appears more balanced at 0.95, but data from the last 24 hours shows this ratio has risen to 1.17. This change reveals that investors have adopted a more cautious position in the short term and are seeking protection against a possible pullback.
The maximum pain point for Ethereum is at $2,325, and the fact that the current price remains below this level is noteworthy. This situation raises the possibility that the price may enter a search for upward equilibrium. Indeed, in the last 24 hours, the Ethereum price has risen by approximately 1.5 percent, fluctuating between $2,232 and $2,293. However, the 45% drop in trading volume suggests that this rise may be a temporary recovery rather than a strong momentum.
On the macro side, the picture is even more complex. The PCE inflation data released in the US, reaching 3.5%, the highest level in the last three years, stands out as a factor limiting risk appetite in the markets. In addition, tensions between the US and Iran and developments around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices to $106, indicating that inflationary pressures may increase again. This increases volatility in risky markets, including crypto assets.
