Below is today's "Daily Market Update with JrKripto," where we compile the most significant developments in global and local markets. Let's analyze the general market conditions together and review the latest assessments.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $95,090. Following a strong upward movement from the $75,930 support level, the price has settled above $94,000. BTC is now testing the resistance band between $95,000 and $96,000. If this area is surpassed with significant volume, the next target could be $101,000. However, if profit-taking occurs at current levels, the first support is at $90,500. Sustained movement below this level could lead to a correction down to $86,500.
Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $1,820. The recovery process that began from the $1,486 support level has maintained the price above $1,800. In the continuation of the upward movement, the $1,888 and $1,950 levels can be monitored as resistance. However, a pullback from the $1,820 level highlights $1,790 as the first support. Below this, a stronger support at $1,700 can be observed. To maintain ETH's current upward trend, staying above $1,790 is critically important.
Crypto News
- The SEC has concluded its investigation into PayPal's PYUSD stablecoin without enforcement action.
- Trump: "India is doing great; I think we will have an agreement on tariffs."
- The UK Chancellor states that the United Kingdom aims to be a "world leader in digital assets."
- The UK will collaborate with the US to increase cryptocurrency adoption.
- China has lifted the 125% tariff on imported ethanol from the US.
Cryptocurrencies
Top Gainers:
- DRIFT → Increased by 31.8% to reach $0.7651.
- AKT → Increased by 14.7% to reach $1.53.
- PLUME → Increased by 12.8% to reach $0.1925.
- AIC → Increased by 10.5% to reach $0.2011.
- FLOKI → Increased by 10.3% to reach $0.00009251.
Top Losers:
- SAFE → Decreased by 13.9% to $0.5254.
- PENGU → Decreased by 13.3% to $0.0106.
- VIRTUAL → Decreased by 10.5% to $1.32.
- AI16Z → Decreased by 7.2% to $0.2799.
- DEEP → Decreased by 6.9% to $0.1942.
Other Data:
- Fear Index:
- Bitcoin: 57
- Ethereum: 49
- Dominance:
- Bitcoin: 64.50% ▲ 0.10%
- Ethereum: 7.46% ▼ 0.14%
Daily Total Net ETF Inflows:
- BTC ETFs: $172.80 Million
- ETH ETFs: $18.40 Million
Data to Watch Today
- ADP Non-Farm Employment (April):
- Expectation: 114K | Previous: 155K
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Quarterly) (Q1):
- Expectation: 0.2% | Previous: 2.4%
- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Monthly) (March):
- Expectation: 0.1% | Previous: 0.4%
- Core PCE Price Index (Annual) (March):
- Expectation: 2.6% | Previous: 2.8%
- Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories:
- Expectation: -0.600M | Previous: 0.244M
Global Markets
US stock indices closed higher following optimistic statements on tariffs by Commerce Secretary Lutnick, marking the sixth consecutive positive trading day. The S&P 500 rose by 0.58%, the Dow Jones by 0.75%, and the Nasdaq by 0.55%. All sectors in the S&P 500, except for energy, closed in positive territory. The strongest performing sectors were financials (0.97%), materials (0.92%), consumer staples (0.77%), and real estate (0.74%).
On the economic data front, a weak outlook persisted. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell from 93.9 in April to 86.0, reaching its lowest level in five years. The expectation was 87.7. The expectations index dropped by 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest since October 2011, remaining below the 80-point level considered a recession indicator for the third consecutive month. The current conditions index declined to 133.5, while consumers' 12-month inflation expectations rose from 6% to 7%, the highest since November 2022. The JOLTS job openings data came in at 7.19 million, below the expectation of 7.49 million, marking the lowest level in four years. The housing price index also recorded a lower-than-expected increase.
Asian markets showed mixed trends, while European markets are expected to start the day flat. Today, US markets will focus on Q1 GDP data, PCE inflation data, and ADP private sector employment data.
Most Valuable Companies and Stock Prices
- Apple (AAPL) → Market Cap: $3.17T, Share Price: $211.21, ▲ 0.51%
- Microsoft (MSFT) → Market Cap: $2.93T, Share Price: $394.04, ▲ 0.74%
- NVIDIA (NVDA) → Market Cap: $2.66T, Share Price: $109.02, ▲ 0.27%
- Amazon (AMZN) → Market Cap: $1.99T, Share Price: $187.39, ▼ 0.17%
- Alphabet (GOOG) → Market Cap: $1.95T, Share Price: $162.06, ▼ 0.22%
Borsa Istanbul
A weak outlook and capital outflows continue in Borsa Istanbul. Yesterday, the BIST 100 index fell below the 9,250 support level, with technical indicators showing clear sell signals. This decline positions the 9,000 – 9,100 range as the next support area. On the upside, the 9,250 – 9,300 band now serves as resistance. Given that today is the last trading day of April, the closing of arbitrage positions in VIOP share contracts and the stock market may create additional selling pressure on BIST.
The Central Bank's weighted average funding cost (WAFC) remains close to 49%. Q1 financial results have generally been weak, though some stocks like ASELS and TABGD have shown positive performance. However, the expected strong outlook for the earnings season has not been achieved. Today's agenda includes Koç Holding (KCHOL) financial results, domestic foreign trade data, growth data in Europe, and employment, housing, and consumption-focused data in the US.
Turkey's 5-year CDS premium has risen to 362 basis points, showing an upward trend contrary to the average of emerging markets. This indicates an increased risk perception specific to TL assets and the continuation of foreign sales in BIST.
The unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in March, seasonally adjusted, reaching the lowest level in the series. However, the underemployment rate increased over the past three months, reaching 28.8%, the highest since June 2023. The labor force participation rate stood at 53.4%. The Economic Confidence Index for April decreased by 4.2% monthly to 96.6, marking the sharpest decline since August 2023. The subcomponents of the index indicate weakened expectations on both the consumer and producer sides.
Yesterday, sales in aviation stocks determined the direction of the index, and the BIST 100 closed the day with a 0.9% loss. Generally weak earnings and rising interest rates are increasing pressure on the index. A selling trend is expected to continue in Borsa Istanbul today.
The BIST 100 index fell to 9,217 yesterday before closing at 9,225. The 9,221 level is being monitored as short-term support, while the 9,044 – 8,870 range serves as a stronger support area due to previous lows. As long as the index stays above this region, rebound buying may occur. Otherwise, a stronger decline towards the 8,618 – 8,500 band could be experienced. On the upside, the 9,494 – 9,594 band stands out as near-term resistance. If this band is surpassed, movement towards the 9,740 – 9,895 range may be seen. Support levels for BIST 100: 9,221 – 9,044 – 8,870 – 8,725 – 8,618; resistance levels: 9,494 – 9,594 – 9,740 – 9,895 – 9,953.
Most Valuable Companies in Borsa Istanbul (According to Visual Data):
- QNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → Market Cap: 938 billion TL, Share Price: 270.50 TL, ▼ 3.39%
- Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → Market Cap: 626.54 billion TL, Share Price: 132.90 TL, ▼ 3.28%
- Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → Market Cap: 430.08 billion TL, Share Price: 101.70 TL, ▼ 0.68%
- Türk Hava Yolları (THYAO) → Market Cap: 410.89 billion TL, Share Price: 289.00 TL, ▼ 2.94%
- ENKA İnşaat ve Sanayi (ENKAI) → Market Cap: 373.11 billion TL, Share Price: 63.80 TL, ▲ 0.24%
Precious Metals and Exchange Rates
- Gold: 4091 TL
- Silver: 39.97 TL
- Platinum: 1201 TL
- USD: 38.50
- EURO: 43.90
