You can find today’s “Daily Market with JrKripto,” where we compile the most important developments in global and local markets, below. Let’s analyze the general market conditions together and take a look at the latest evaluations.
Bitcoin (BTC) started its upward trend from the $75,930 level and carried it to an all-time high (ATH) at $111,980, then pulled back due to profit-taking and is currently trading at $104,671. In the technical outlook, the $104,629 level is being followed as the first support, while below this level, support levels are located at $101,059 and $96,115. For the upward movement to regain strength, the $109,588 level needs to be surpassed. If it can stay above this resistance, $111,980 and $114,500 may be targeted.
Ethereum (ETH), on the other hand, extended its upward movement from the $1,486 level to $3,004, then pulled back to $2,481 with the subsequent correction. Technically, the $2,385 level is an important support. Below this level, there are support levels at $2,098 and $2,004. For the continuation of the upward movement, the $2,711 resistance needs to be surpassed. Once this level is broken, the $2,838 and $3,004 levels may become targets again. Overall, ETH is in a horizontal consolidation phase, and holding above $2,385 is critical for the continuation of the positive scenario.
Crypto News
- SHARPLINK GAMING has applied for a $1 billion IPO and plans to use the proceeds to purchase Ethereum.Cetus confirmed that the quarantined funds on Sui have been moved to a multisig safe wallet. The funds will remain secure until they are returned to users.WH Senior Advisor Hassett: Trump is considering a phone call with Chinese President Xi this week.U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs “will not be lifted.”Elon Musk announced that X has launched its new 'XChat' messaging system with "Bitcoin-style" encryption.
Top Gaining Cryptocurrencies:MASK → Up 27.8% to $2.57INC → Up 27.3% to $0.03161628KTA → Up 18.6% to $0.95564181AI16Z → Up 13.3% to $0.23943525FLR → Up 10.7% to $0.01914012
Top Declining Cryptocurrencies:TKX → Down 6.6% to $31.52LPT → Down 6.2% to $8.27RAY → Down 4.8% to $2.36PLUME → Down 4.7% to $0.12862161GIGA → Down 3.7% to $0.02157426
Fear Index:Bitcoin: 59Ethereum: 38
Dominance:Bitcoin: 64.51% ▲ 0.05%Ethereum: 9.36% ▼ 0.52%
Daily Net ETF Flows:BTC ETFs: -$616.10 MillionETH ETFs: $70.20 Million
Key Data to Watch TodayTime: 16:45 – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (May)Expectation: 52.3Previous: 50.2
Time: 17:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)Expectation: 49.3Previous: 48.7
Time: 20:00 – Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
Global Markets
U.S. stock markets opened sharply lower after President Donald Trump accused China of violating trade agreements. However, they managed to recover most of their losses by the end of the day. This rebound was driven by lower-than-expected April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data and positive results in the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey.
According to PCE inflation data, annual headline inflation dropped to 2.1%, and core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, fell to 2.5%—the lowest since February 2021. Monthly inflation stood at 0.1%, in line with expectations. While service prices saw limited increases, the downward trend in goods prices ended with a 0.1% rise. The rise in disposable income was driven by social security payments.
As a result, the S&P 500 index closed flat with a marginal 0.01% drop, the Nasdaq declined by 0.32%, and the Dow Jones rose by 0.13%. Eight of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed higher, with consumer staples and utilities leading gains, while energy, consumer discretionary, and tech sectors declined.
As the new week begins, trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to escalate. China rejected Trump’s accusations and argued that the U.S. was the one violating the agreement. These developments created selling pressure in Asian markets and U.S. futures, and European markets are also expected to open lower.
Meanwhile, expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy have shifted slightly. While tariff policies may exert upward pressure on inflation, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts for September and December.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for May was revised upward from the previous estimate of 50.8 to 52.2, marking a pause in the four-month decline. The index is still 24% lower than the same period last year. Short-term inflation expectations rose slightly to 6.6%, while 5-year long-term expectations declined from 4.4% to 4.2%.
On the Chinese side, economic data signaled a recovery. The manufacturing PMI rose from 49.0 to 49.5 in May, slowing the contraction. The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, came in at 50.3, just above the growth threshold.
Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesMicrosoft (MSFT) → $3.42 Trillion market cap, $460.36 per share, up 0.37%NVIDIA (NVDA) → $3.3 Trillion market cap, $135.13 per share, down 2.92%Apple (AAPL) → $3 Trillion market cap, $200.85 per share, up 0.45%Amazon (AMZN) → $2.18 Trillion market cap, $205.01 per share, down 0.34%Alphabet (GOOG) → $2.09 Trillion market cap, $172.85 per share, down 0.06%
Borsa Istanbul (BIST)
In Q1 2025, the Turkish economy grew by 2% compared to the same period last year, and 1% on a quarterly basis. This growth was slightly below market expectations of 2.5% and the institutional forecast of 2.3%. The main driver was household consumption. Thanks to favorable credit conditions before the interest rate hike, consumption increased by 2% annually, contributing 1.6 percentage points to growth. Public spending rose by 1.2%, adding 0.2 points, and investments (fixed capital formation) grew by 2.1%, also contributing 0.2 points. However, while exports remained flat, a 3% rise in imports pulled growth down by 0.6 points. Growth was sustained by domestic demand in Q1, but this momentum is expected to weaken in Q2. We believe there are increasing downside risks to our 2025 growth forecast of 3.1%, and that growth may fall below 3%.
In the labor market, negative developments were seen. In April, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 8% to 8.6%, the highest since November 2024. The broader underemployment rate hit a record high, rising from 28.8% to 32.2%. The combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment rose to 22.5%, while the rate of unemployed and potential labor force remained at 20%. This sharp increase is thought to be partly due to temporary unemployment of daily wage workers during the holiday period.
Price increases also continued. According to Istanbul Chamber of Commerce data, retail prices rose by 2.83% monthly and 46.57% annually in May. According to TÜRK-İŞ, the hunger threshold increased by 4.39% to 25,092 TL in May. The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will make domestic debt payments totaling 581.6 billion TL between June and August. In June, a borrowing of 278.9 billion TL is planned against payments of 265.6 billion TL.
The Financial Stability Report published by the Central Bank indicated a shift in commercial loans in favor of TRY since March. Due to high commercial loan interest rates, credit growth is expected to remain moderate, and firms’ financial positions are generally considered manageable.
Last week’s decline in Borsa Istanbul was driven especially by selling in banking stocks. The BIST-100 index dropped below 9,000 points during the session but closed slightly above that level. The Capital Markets Board (SPK) extended regulations on short selling bans, share buybacks, and margin trading until July 4. These measures are expected to provide short-term support to the market. However, due to settlement advantages during the holiday, some investors may still opt to sell. Tomorrow’s inflation data from TURKSTAT will be important; market expectation is around 2% monthly. The BIST-100 is expected to start the week with a flat movement above 9,000 points.
Most Valuable Companies on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → 867.65 Billion TL market cap, 258.50 TL per share, down 0.19%Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → 590.98 Billion TL market cap, 130.00 TL per share, up 0.31%Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → 444.78 Billion TL market cap, 107.70 TL per share, up 1.70%Türk Hava Yolları (THYAO) → 377.08 Billion TL market cap, 273.25 TL per share, no changeKoç Holding A.Ş. (KCHOL) → 359.34 Billion TL market cap, 140.40 TL per share, down 0.92%
Precious Metals and Exchange Rates
Gold: 4,181 TLSilver: 41.93 TLPlatinum: 1,326 TLUSD: 39.26 TLEUR: 44.67 TL
See you again tomorrow with the latest updates!
