Crypto this week began with Bitcoin trading at around $85,500 and Ether near $2,700.
The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, the Reserve Bank of India’s interest-rate decision and oil prices above $100 form the core of the macroeconomic agenda.
The crypto calendar features approximately $337.5 million in scheduled HYPE unlocks and $40.9 million in ENA unlocks. Binance, Bybit and Robinhood will discontinue several products, while three validator-dependent XRP Ledger upgrades could take effect.
Fed minutes will shape expectations for October
The Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16. All members supported the decision, which marked the US central bank’s first rate increase since 2023.
Minutes from the meeting will be published on Wednesday, October 7, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Investors will examine how policymakers assessed energy-driven inflation risks and whether they disagreed over the timing of the next increase.
US nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September. The result fell well below the Reuters poll forecast of around 90,000 and reduced the market-implied probability of an October rate increase to approximately 18%–20%.
The US services outlook will come into focus with the ISM services PMI on Monday, October 5, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The index is expected to ease to 55 from 55.4 in August, with a reading above 50 indicating continued expansion.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment index will follow on Friday, October 9, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The consensus forecast points to a decline from approximately 48.2 in September to 47.7.
India is expected to raise interest rates
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet from October 5 to 7. Its interest-rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, October 7, at 7:30 a.m. Türkiye time.
Thirty-five of the 61 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the RBI to raise its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. Such a decision would mark the central bank’s first increase in nearly four years.
High oil prices, broader inflationary pressure and weakness in the rupee support expectations for tighter policy. The decision could influence emerging-market currencies and global risk appetite.
The European Central Bank will publish the account of its September 9–10 meeting on Thursday, October 8, at 2:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Investors will look for discussions about energy prices, growth risks and the direction of upcoming rate decisions.
Canada’s September employment report will arrive on Friday, October 9, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Statistics Canada says the report will reflect labour-market conditions during the week of September 13–19.
Oil remains above $100
Brent crude started the week at around $101.60 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded near $90.10. The G7’s decision to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel from emergency reserves has limited prices, although attacks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support a geopolitical risk premium.
Middle Eastern crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on several days, even as authorities recorded at least seven new attacks on vessels in the region. Persistently high energy costs could encourage central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.
Oil-driven inflation can affect Bitcoin through interest rates and government bond yields. Markets will monitor the speed of the G7 reserve release and the security of Gulf shipping routes.
Russia’s crypto registration rules take effect
The Bank of Russia’s new registration regulations for the cryptocurrency market take effect on October 5. Crypto exchanges, digital depositories and operators of systems used to issue digital financial rights will need to join the relevant official registers.
The rules establish qualification requirements for executives, the necessary application documents and the central bank’s registration process. Existing market participants will also have access to a simplified application route.
In the US, the investment adviser and fund custody proposal announced last week does not have a new effective date within the coming seven days. The comment period for the SEC’s broader Regulation Crypto Assets proposal will remain open until October 20.
Binance, Bybit and Robinhood will discontinue trading
Binance will automatically settle and delist the PROMPTUSDT, PUMPBTCUSDT and 1000000BOBUSDT perpetual contracts on Monday, October 5, at noon Türkiye time. The exchange will prevent users from opening new positions in these contracts from 11:30 a.m.
Bybit will close deposits for SCOR and AGI on October 7 at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Trading in the SCOR/USDT and AGI/USDT spot pairs, along with Convert support, will end on October 8 at 11:00 a.m.
Robinhood Europe will disable sales of BERA, EOS, PAXG and TIA on Friday, October 9, at 10:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The platform will automatically sell remaining BERA and TIA balances at market prices because withdrawals are unavailable for these assets.
EOS and PAXG withdrawals will remain available until October 14, placing the next stage of their delisting process outside this weekly calendar. No major new spot listing or high-profile token launch had been confirmed at the time of preparation.
Three XRP Ledger upgrades could activate
The XRP Ledger’s PermissionDelegationV1_1 amendment could activate on Friday, October 9, at approximately 12:25 a.m. Türkiye time, provided validator support remains above the required threshold. The feature will let accounts delegate limited permissions without sharing the private keys controlling their funds.
The projected activation time for fixBatchV1_2 is 5:12 p.m. on the same day. Servers that fail to upgrade to the security-focused xrpld 3.4.1 release could become amendment-blocked and lose synchronisation with the network.
BatchV1_1 is expected to activate at around 5:46 p.m. Türkiye time. The feature will allow users to bundle and submit up to eight transactions together, enabling use cases such as atomic swaps.
All three dates depend on validator support remaining above 80% for the full required period. If support falls to or below the threshold, the 14-day countdown will restart and the activation dates will change.
HYPE and ENA supply will expand
Current Tokenomist data show that HYPE and ENA account for most of the week’s major one-time token unlocks. All dollar values are approximate because they were calculated using spot prices available during preparation.
Ethena will release approximately 172.7 million ENA to core contributors on October 5. At an ENA price of around $0.237, the unlock is worth approximately $40.9 million and represents about 1.88% of the reported supply measure.
Hyperliquid’s scheduled HYPE unlock for core contributors on October 6 is worth approximately $337.5 million. A spot price near $90 puts the scheduled amount at around 3.75 million HYPE.
Tokenomist displays a mismatch between the scheduled unlock and the broader committed vesting figure for the same event. This calendar uses the narrower $337.5 million scheduled value, while the amount that becomes claimable or moves on-chain could differ.
Aerodrome will release approximately $3.53 million in AERO on October 8. Aptos’s roughly $9.13 million APT unlock on October 11 will be joined by approximately $4.29 million in PEAQ and $2.7 million in IO.
The PEAQ unlock stands out with a reported ratio of 3.73%. The io.net schedule shows that approximately 15.88 million IO will become available on October 11.
Applied Digital will report earnings
Applied Digital, which has shifted from blockchain workloads toward artificial intelligence and high-performance data-centre infrastructure, will report its fiscal first-quarter results on October 7. The conference call will begin at midnight on Thursday, October 8, in Türkiye because of the time difference.
The report covers the fiscal quarter that ended on August 31. Investors will monitor data-centre rental income, energy expenses, newly operational capacity and the company’s capital requirements.
TOKEN2049 begins in Singapore
TOKEN2049 Singapore will take place at Marina Bay Sands on October 7–8. The programme will focus on crypto infrastructure, stablecoins, institutional capital, tokenisation and regulatory developments across Asia.
The broader TOKEN2049 Week programme runs from October 5 to 11. CoinFerenceX will take place on October 5–6, Solana Summit Singapore on October 6 and RWA Summit Singapore on October 9.
ETH Lagos will hold its conference and parallel hackathon from October 8 to 10. The event will bring together Ethereum developers and Web3 projects from across Africa.
No separate binding, high-impact DAO vote with a confirmed deadline during the week was identified. Gitcoin’s proposal to lower the participation threshold for Snapshot votes from 2.5 million GTC to 1.5 million GTC remains at the forum discussion stage.
This week’s 30-event crypto calendar
All times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.
- October 5: Russia’s registration rules for crypto-market entities take effect.
- October 5: Approximately $40.9 million in ENA unlocks.
- October 5, noon: Binance delists three perpetual contracts.
- October 5, 5:00 p.m.: US ISM services PMI.
- October 5–6: CoinFerenceX Singapore.
- October 6: Approximately $337.5 million in scheduled HYPE unlocks.
- October 6: Solana Summit Singapore.
- October 6, noon: Euro-area retail sales for August.
- October 6, 3:30 p.m.: US trade balance for August.
- October 7, 1:00 a.m.: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks.
- October 7, 7:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of India interest-rate decision.
- October 7, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit closes SCOR and AGI deposits.
- October 7–8: TOKEN2049 Singapore.
- October 7, 9:00 p.m.: Minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC meeting.
- October 8, midnight: Applied Digital earnings conference call.
- October 8: Approximately $3.53 million in AERO unlocks.
- October 8, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit ends SCOR and AGI spot trading.
- October 8, 2:30 p.m.: ECB minutes from its September meeting.
- October 8, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.
- October 8–10: ETH Lagos conference and hackathon.
- October 9, approximately 12:25 a.m.: XRP Ledger PermissionDelegationV1_1 activation.
- October 9, 3:30 p.m.: Canada’s September employment report.
- October 9, 5:00 p.m.: Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
- October 9, approximately 5:12 p.m.: XRP Ledger fixBatchV1_2 activation.
- October 9, approximately 5:46 p.m.: XRP Ledger BatchV1_1 activation.
- October 9, 10:00 p.m.: Robinhood disables sales of BERA, EOS, PAXG and TIA.
- October 9: RWA Summit Singapore.
- October 11: Approximately $9.13 million in APT unlocks.
- October 11: Approximately $4.29 million in PEAQ unlocks.
- October 11: Approximately $2.7 million in IO unlocks.
The scheduled HYPE release represents the week’s largest crypto-specific supply risk by dollar value. Fed minutes, the RBI’s decision, services-sector data and oil prices above $100 could have a greater influence on the direction of the wider market.
