Bitcoin started the week of September 21–27 at approximately $83,600. Ether traded near $2,665 at the time of writing as markets assessed the future path of interest rates following last week’s decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.
The crypto calendar features Plasma’s approximately $167.6 million XPL unlock, Binance’s removal of USDP and Terra’s network upgrade. Flash PMI reports, speeches from Fed officials and US durable goods orders will lead the macroeconomic agenda.
Fed officials will speak after the rate increase
The Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The policy statement described economic activity as solid and inflation as still elevated, while all members voted in favor of the increase.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak about discount window modernization and the functioning of the US Treasury market on Tuesday, September 22, at 5:20 p.m. Türkiye time. Michael Barr will discuss the housing market on Wednesday, September 23, at 5:05 p.m.
The Fed’s official calendar also includes the Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Thursday, September 24, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will show how collateral, leverage and credit conditions have changed for major institutions that finance securities transactions.
Markets currently assign an approximately 55% probability to another rate increase in October. Comments about inflation, oil prices and the next meeting could affect Bitcoin through movements in the dollar and Treasury yields.
PCE inflation will not be released this week
Some economic calendars list US personal consumption expenditures inflation and gross domestic product data for this week. The latest schedule from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the August PCE report and the third estimate of second-quarter growth will arrive on September 30.
Neither PCE nor GDP data belong on the September 21–27 calendar. This week’s US releases instead center on new home sales, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.
August new home sales will arrive on Thursday, September 24, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The Census Bureau calendar schedules durable goods orders for Friday, September 25, at 3:30 p.m.
The University of Michigan will publish its final September consumer sentiment reading at 5:00 p.m. on September 25. The preliminary index fell from 51.7 to 47.8, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%.
Flash PMI data will provide a view of global growth
September flash purchasing managers’ indexes will be released on Wednesday, September 23. The euro-area composite PMI will arrive at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time, followed by the UK data at 11:30 a.m. and the US manufacturing and services indexes at 4:45 p.m.
Readings above 50 would indicate an expansion in private-sector activity. Strong growth accompanied by rising input prices could support expectations that central banks will continue raising interest rates.
Price indicators within the services reports will carry particular importance for crypto markets. The Fed continued to characterize inflation as elevated last week, making input costs and selling prices almost as significant as the headline PMI readings.
Oil and the US-China meeting enter focus
Brent crude started the week above $100 as conflict in the Middle East and shipping risks continued to affect the energy market. High oil prices are maintaining pressure on the currencies and inflation outlooks of energy-importing countries.
The Bangladeshi government increased fuel prices by as much as 17.4% from September 21 in response to higher global oil and shipping costs. The decision provides a current example of how the energy shock is passing through to consumer prices.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on September 24. Comments on trade, artificial intelligence, supply chains and the Middle East could influence risk appetite and the direction of the dollar.
Terra will upgrade its network today
Terra will activate a network upgrade at block height 22,942,000 on Monday, September 21. The network is expected to reach the block at approximately 6:00 p.m. Türkiye time, although the exact time may change depending on block production.
Binance said it would temporarily suspend LUNA deposits and withdrawals from 5:00 p.m. Spot trading will remain available, while transfers will resume after the exchange determines that the network is stable.
The exchange will also launch a USDBRLUSDT perpetual contract tracking the US dollar-Brazilian real exchange rate at 5:00 p.m. The USDT-settled product will trade around the clock and offer leverage of up to 100 times.
Binance will end USDP trading
Binance will cease all spot trading in Pax Dollar on Thursday, September 24, at 6:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange will cancel open orders and terminate the related trading-bot services at the same time.
USDP deposits will no longer be credited to user accounts after 6:00 a.m. on September 25. Withdrawals will remain available until 6:00 a.m. on November 24.
The decision does not end the Paxos-issued token or USDP trading on other exchanges. Its impact is limited to Binance’s spot market and related products that support USDP.
The XPL unlock exceeds $167 million
Tokenomist estimates that cliff unlocks scheduled for the next seven days have a combined value of approximately $227.17 million. Plasma’s September 25 unlock accounts for roughly $167.6 million of that total.
The XPL release equals approximately 67.1% of the project’s reported market capitalization. The tokens belong to the ecosystem and growth allocation, making XPL the asset with the week’s highest dilution risk.
Humanity Protocol will release approximately $18.97 million in H tokens to early contributors on the same day. The amount equals around 13.1% of its reported market capitalization.
SoSoValue’s September 24 unlock has an estimated value of $6.83 million, equivalent to 6.9% of its market capitalization. STBL will release approximately $5.41 million from its adviser allocation on September 26, representing around 42.7% of its reported market capitalization.
Smaller releases include approximately $2.52 million in ID, $3.83 million in SOON, $1.88 million in MET and $2.7 million in AERO.
ETHTokyo continues this week
ETHTokyo, which began on September 19, will continue through September 27. The event brings together Ethereum developers, security researchers, infrastructure projects and members of Japan’s Web3 community.
The US Senate’s procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the required 60-vote threshold on September 15. No new vote has been scheduled, so the proposal does not appear among this week’s upcoming events.
The SEC announced a five-year exemption for tokenized stock trading on September 17. Although the decision is a completed development, it creates a new regulatory framework that could affect the tokenized securities plans of companies such as Coinbase and Robinhood.
This week’s 24-event crypto calendar
- September 21, 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time: Binance suspends Terra deposits and withdrawals.
- September 21, approximately 6:00 p.m.: Terra network upgrade.
- September 21, 5:00 p.m.: Binance launches the USDBRLUSDT perpetual contract.
- September 21–27: The remaining ETHTokyo program continues.
- September 22, approximately 3:00 a.m.: ID unlock worth around $2.52 million.
- September 22, 5:20 p.m.: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
- September 23, 11:00 a.m.: Euro-area flash PMI data for September.
- September 23, 11:30 a.m.: UK flash PMI data for September.
- September 23, approximately 11:30 a.m.: SOON unlock worth around $3.83 million.
- September 23, approximately 4:00 p.m.: MET unlock worth around $1.88 million.
- September 23, 4:45 p.m.: US flash PMI data for September.
- September 23, 5:05 p.m.: Speech by Fed Governor Michael Barr.
- September 24, approximately 3:00 a.m.: AERO unlock worth around $2.7 million.
- September 24, 5:00 a.m.: USDP removed from Binance Convert.
- September 24, 6:00 a.m.: Binance ends USDP spot trading.
- September 24: SOSO unlock worth around $6.83 million.
- September 24, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.
- September 24, 5:00 p.m.: US new home sales for August.
- September 24, 9:00 p.m.: Fed credit conditions survey.
- September 24: Trump-Xi meeting.
- September 25: XPL unlock worth around $167.6 million.
- September 25: H unlock worth around $18.97 million.
- September 25, 3:30 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.: US durable goods orders and final consumer sentiment.
- September 26: STBL unlock worth around $5.41 million.
The XPL unlock represents the week’s strongest crypto-specific price risk because of its size. The broader market will focus on flash PMI data, Fed officials’ post-meeting messages, oil prices above $100 and announcements from the US-China meeting.
