Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to experience a significant decline this weekend. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at UK-based bank Standard Chartered, stated that it is almost inevitable that Bitcoin will fall below the $100,000 threshold this week.
According to Kendrick, this decline could be short-lived and could also present a buying opportunity. In fact, he says such a pullback could be "the last time Bitcoin falls below $100,000."
Background on Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin surpassed $126,000 on October 6th, reaching new record highs. However, renewed concerns about the US-China trade war on October 10th created selling pressure. Kendrick explains this by saying, "After the surge on October 6th, the sell-off on October 10th halted the rally." The research note states, "The question now is: How much does Bitcoin have to fall before it forms a bottom?" Kendrick highlights three key indicators for a bottom:
- A shift in capital from gold to Bitcoin (i.e., selling gold turns into buying Bitcoin).
- The Federal Reserve's (Fed) acknowledgement of a liquidity squeeze or the halting of quantitative tightening (QT).
- Technical support levels, particularly the 50-week moving average.
The gold-to-Bitcoin rotation is particularly noteworthy. This week's sharp sell-off in gold and Bitcoin's intraday recovery are considered signs of such a shift. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's continued presence above its 50-week moving average since early 2023 underscores the importance of this support.
Current Market Situation
According to data, the Bitcoin price is trading around $109,000 at the time of writing and has risen by approximately 1% in the last 24 hours.
Kendrick maintains a target of $200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year. In the long term, he predicts it could reach $500,000 by 2028. Some believe this assessment carries a critical message for several prominent investors and analysts:
- If Bitcoin actually falls to $100,000 and holds there, a buying opportunity could arise at this level. Kendrick suggests, "Be prepared and be on the lookout for buying at the bottom."
- However, the notion that this decline is inevitable could be a short-term "shock" for the market. Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks appear to have played a role in this decline.
- This also signals that Bitcoin is sensitive to support levels, liquidity conditions, and outflows from alternative investment instruments (e.g., gold).
In other words, Bitcoin's drop below $100,000 should not be interpreted as a sign of panic; on the contrary, analysts believe it represents an opportunity with the potential for a short-term correction and a "final low." However, before making any investment decisions, the macro environment, liquidity, and technical support should be carefully monitored.
