Bitcoin tested $76,000 for the third time in four days. The price briefly surpassed this level on Friday morning, but BTC is currently around $75,440. It still faces a $450 million sell wall; according to CoinGlass data, most of these orders are concentrated in the $75,900-$76,300 range. Some traders are opening short positions at this resistance, while others have placed pre-orders to protect positions that will be liquidated if a breakout occurs.
Stocks Rise
US stock markets reached record highs on Thursday. The easing of tensions on the Iranian front following the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was reflected in the markets. Crypto had significantly outperformed stocks during the period of escalating conflict. Now the situation has reversed, and BTC is moving in a more measured direction.
Futures Market Activity
While the price has not yet charted a clear direction, there is some activity in the futures market. Total market capitalization surged 28% to $225.8 billion, with open interest (OI) rising over 1.5% to $126.68 billion. The most notable development: Total liquidations surged 140% to $529 million. Short positions are slightly outpacing long positions, indicating a limited-scale short squeeze dynamic.
SOL leads the list in open interest growth. The number of active SOL futures contracts increased by 11% in the last 24 hours, reaching 5.53 billion SOL; the highest figure since March 18th. Dogecoin is also noteworthy: DOGE open interest is at a six-month high of 14.17 billion DOGE.
Rising funding rates and positive OI-weighted CVD (cumulative volume delta: the cumulative sum of the volume difference between buy and sell orders) in SOL indicate that buyers are becoming increasingly aggressive. The picture is mixed in DOGE: CVD is showing buying interest, while slightly negative funding rates remind us that there is still a bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. ADA stands out in the OI-weighted CVD ranking; buying pressure is evident in Cardano.
Volatility is falling, the options market is cautious
Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has fallen to 43.35%, its lowest level in 2.5 months. Ethereum's index, EVIV, is hovering near its recent lows, around 65%. Falling volatility usually paves the way for market calm and an upward trend.
In Deribit, however, the options market gives a slightly different feeling. Put options continue to dominate both BTC and ETH options; downward concerns have not yet fully dissipated. The market is preparing for an uptrend, but it is not very willing to put all its money on the table.
