Global markets are focused on this week's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Following three consecutive interest rate cuts in the last three meetings, the direction the US central bank will take in its January meeting is one of the most important factors determining the direction of both traditional markets and crypto assets.
The US Federal Reserve's (FED) January 2026 FOMC meeting will be held on January 27-28. The interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, at 9:00 PM Turkish time. Statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the decision will be closely watched by the markets.
What is expected from the Fed meeting?
Market pricing indicates a very high probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of interest rates remaining at their current level has risen above 97 percent. This rate was around 95 percent last week. This growing expectation indicates that investors do not anticipate a new easing step from the Fed in the short term. As a reminder, the Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range at its December meeting. Thus, the bank has made three consecutive rate cuts in the last three meetings. The main purpose of these steps was to prevent a sharp slowdown in the labor market from turning into a permanent increase in unemployment rates. However, the latest FOMC minutes show that a significant portion of Fed officials believe that caution should be exercised at this point. The minutes show that some members expressed the view that it would be healthier to keep the policy rate stable for a while after three consecutive rate cuts. The fact that inflation is still above the target level and that mixed signals continue in the labor market are among the factors that make the decision-making process difficult. While the latest non-farm payroll data released in the US was below expectations, the limited decline in the unemployment rate reinforced the view that the Fed should not act hastily. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also drew attention to this dilemma in his recent statements. Powell pointed out that both inflation and unemployment risks are simultaneously on the rise, emphasizing that balancing two different risks with a single policy tool is extremely difficult. These statements support expectations that the Fed may adopt a "wait-and-see" strategy in the short term.
This uncertainty regarding the interest rate decision is also causing volatility in the cryptocurrency markets. While the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is around $2.99 trillion, leading crypto assets remain under pressure despite a limited recovery across the market. Losses in large-cap coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have been noticeable in recent days.
According to market analysts, the sharp rise in gold and silver prices is also contributing to this weak outlook. The shift in safe-haven demand towards precious metals is accelerating the exit from risky assets. Some forecasting platforms have even increased the probability of the Fed maintaining its current interest rate level to 99%. This expectation indicates that volatility may continue in the crypto market in the short term. In summary, while the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting wasn't a major surprise for the markets, the decision text and Fed Chairman Powell's remarks will be crucial in terms of pricing. In the crypto market, the real direction is expected to become clearer with the signals the Fed will give regarding future meetings.
