The crypto market will focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate debate and the European Union’s transaction ban targeting 14 crypto platforms during the week of August 17–23. Several token unlocks are also scheduled, including ZRO, TRUMP, KAITO and AVAX.
Bitcoin started the week trading at around $63,500. Weak US employment and retail sales data have reduced expectations for an interest-rate increase, while rising oil prices continue to keep inflation risks alive.
FOMC minutes could revive the rate debate
The week’s most important macroeconomic event will arrive on Wednesday, August 19, when the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its July 28–29 FOMC meeting at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time.
The Fed kept its target rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in July. The decision passed by a 9–3 vote, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan supporting a 25-basis-point increase.
The three dissenting votes have made the minutes more significant. Investors will examine whether support for tighter policy extended beyond those three officials and what conditions might persuade other members to back an increase.
US data released since the July meeting have pointed to slower economic activity. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 104 economists expected the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its September meeting.
Futures markets have also lowered the probability of a September rate increase to around 30%, down from approximately 50% a week earlier. The minutes will reflect the Fed’s position at the time of the meeting, so investors will weigh them against the weaker data published since then.
Oil prices are keeping the rate outlook uncertain. Brent crude gained 6% last week and moved above $89 on Monday. Supply risks in the Middle East could raise energy costs and complicate central banks’ efforts to control inflation.
The effect was visible in the week’s first major data release. Canada’s annual inflation rate climbed to 3% in July, driven partly by a 25.7% year-over-year increase in gasoline prices.
EU ban targeting 14 crypto platforms takes effect
The European Union’s transaction ban covering 14 crypto service platforms will take effect on Sunday, August 23. The measure forms part of the crypto provisions in the EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia.
According to the Council of the EU, the listed platforms are based in Georgia, Panama, the United Arab Emirates, the Marshall Islands, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus. The bloc says the entities helped Russia circumvent existing financial sanctions.
The ban prevents EU operators from conducting direct or indirect transactions with the listed platforms. Its scope is limited to the entities named in the annex to Regulation 2026/1848.
The regulation also creates a pathway for broader restrictions on crypto services in countries that systematically help Russia evade sanctions. This mechanism could allow the EU to target crypto services across an entire jurisdiction instead of adding individual companies to its sanctions list.
Counterparty screening will become more important for EU-based exchanges and custody providers. Transfers linked to the listed platforms could face additional checks, potentially affecting some users’ deposit and withdrawal transactions.
Coinbase and Circle agreement enters renewal period
The USDC collaboration agreement between Coinbase and Circle will enter its first three-year renewal term on August 18. The agreement governs the distribution of USDC-related revenue and the economic relationship between the two companies.
The contract submitted to the SEC took effect on August 18, 2023. Its initial term lasted three years and can renew automatically for additional three-year periods if both parties meet the specified performance requirements.
The date marks the continuation of the existing commercial framework. Circle and Coinbase have not announced a separate USDC token launch or network upgrade tied to the renewal.
ZRO and TRUMP unlocks enter focus
The week’s token calendar includes several unlocks that are significant in dollar value or as a share of circulating supply. Their dollar values are approximate and will continue to fluctuate with spot prices.
- August 17: Aster will unlock approximately $28.3 million in ASTER, equivalent to 1.8% of its circulating supply.
- August 18: Official Trump will release around $40 million in TRUMP, equal to 4.1% of its circulating supply.
- August 20: LayerZero will unlock approximately $20 million in ZRO, representing 4.4% of its circulating supply.
- August 20: Kaito will unlock around $12.2 million in KAITO.
- August 21: Avalanche will unlock approximately $23.1 million in AVAX, equivalent to 0.7% of its circulating supply.
- August 21: Morpho will release around $22.7 million in MORPHO, representing 3.9% of its circulating supply.
- August 21: Akedo Games will unlock approximately $14.1 million in AKE.
Market data show that the ZRO unlock includes allocations for private investors, founders, team members and the community. Transfers to investors and team members with relatively low cost bases could increase the risk of short-term selling pressure.
The same data source reported that DATA Network postponed the unlock for its early backers and core contributors from August 13, 2026, to February 13, 2028. Under the revised schedule, 25% of the allocations will unlock in 2028, while the remainder will be released gradually through February 2031.
Token unlocks make previously restricted assets transferable. Their effect on prices will depend on the recipients’ decisions, market liquidity and demand during the same period.
Gnosis and THORSwap votes will conclude
The week’s most extensive DAO proposal comes from Gnosis Chain. GnosisDAO is considering transforming the network from a standalone layer-1 blockchain into a rollup settled on Ethereum.
The proposal aims to establish synchronous composability between Gnosis Chain and Ethereum. Voting ends on August 19, although approval would not mean the transition takes place immediately.
ShapeShift DAO is voting until August 18 on a proposal to move its rFOX staking program from Arbitrum to Ethereum mainnet on October 1. The plan would increase revenue-sharing rewards to 50% for three months to encourage migration.
Rocket Pool is considering replacing Snapshot with RocketDash as its official offchain signaling platform. Decentraland is voting on a governance and appeals framework for platform-wide bans. Both votes will end on August 19.
Voting on THORSwap’s TIP-19 proposal will continue until August 22. The proposal would migrate THOR tokens to METRO on Ethereum mainnet at a one-to-one ratio.
Compound’s Proposals 595 and 596, which covered zeroing rates in deprecated markets and applying layer-2 security upgrades, concluded on August 16. They are therefore excluded from the week’s upcoming events.
This week’s macroeconomic calendar
All times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.
- August 18, 3:30 p.m.: US import and export prices for July.
- August 18, 4:15 p.m.: US industrial production for July. Monthly growth is expected at 0.3%, following a 0.1% increase.
- August 19, 9:00 a.m.: UK inflation for July. Headline inflation is expected to rise to 3% from 2.6%.
- August 19, 12:00 p.m.: Final euro-area inflation data for July. The preliminary estimate showed headline inflation at 2.9% and core inflation at 2.5%.
- August 19, 9:00 p.m.: FOMC minutes from the Fed’s July 28–29 meeting.
- August 20, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims. Economists expect 201,000 applications, compared with 209,000 previously.
- August 21, 2:30 a.m.: Japan’s July inflation data. Core inflation is expected at 1.8%.
- August 21, 9:00 a.m.: UK retail sales for July.
- August 21, 11:00 a.m.: Flash euro-area composite PMI for August. The forecast stands at 51.6.
- August 21, 4:45 p.m.: Flash US composite PMI for August. The forecast stands at 53.2.
Crypto companies will report earnings
Investors will also follow the financial results of three companies connected to Bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure. BitFuFu is scheduled to report its second-quarter results on August 17, while Canaan’s results are expected before the US market opens on August 18.
Ethereum-focused BTCS is scheduled to report after the market closes on August 18. Mining output, energy costs, crypto asset valuations and cash positions could influence the companies’ share prices.
Crypto events begin in Wyoming and Bali
The Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, organized by SALT and Kraken, will take place in Jackson Hole from August 17 to 20. Speakers include Cynthia Lummis, Tim Scott, Michael Novogratz, Denelle Dixon and Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi.
Coinfest Asia will take place in Bali on August 20–21. Its program will focus on stablecoins, tokenized assets, Asian regulatory frameworks and institutional blockchain adoption.
No high-profile token launch has been confirmed for the week. The FOMC minutes, oil prices, EU sanctions and the existing token supply calendar are therefore likely to carry greater influence over the direction of the crypto market.
