While the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) April interest rate decision is the focus of global markets, cryptocurrency investors expect the real determining factor to be not the decision itself, but the messages delivered by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on April 28-29, the decision will be announced on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, at 9:00 PM (Turkish time). Powell's press conference at 9:30 PM is particularly significant this time, as it is expected to be his last FOMC press conference as Fed Chairman, according to the current schedule, before his term ends in May 2026. According to market data, it is almost certain that the Fed will leave its policy interest rate unchanged for the third time in the 3.50-3.75% range.
CME FedWatch data indicates that the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged has reached 100%. This chart indicates that the decision is largely priced in, making a surprise highly unlikely.
However, the economic backdrop clearly explains why the Fed remains cautious. While growth in the US economy has slowed, the overall outlook remains resilient. The labor market is not entirely weak; the unemployment rate is around 4.3 percent, and employment growth continues. However, inflation remaining above the 2 percent target is narrowing the Fed's policy space. In particular, the renewed approach of oil prices to the $100 level and the upward pressure from energy costs are among the main factors making the fight against inflation more difficult.
Therefore, the main focus in the markets is on the signals Powell will give. Moreover, this meeting is seen as more than just a routine press conference; it is considered one of Powell's last major communication moments before his term ends. This leads to the tone of the statements being analyzed more carefully than ever before.
Market experts state that two main scenarios stand out depending on Powell's speech. In the first scenario, the Fed Chairman is expected to take a firm stance on fighting inflation and signal that there will be no rush into interest rate cuts. Such a "hawkish" tone could lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and a rise in bond yields. In such an environment, it is likely to put pressure on risky assets; a short-term sell-off could be seen, especially in the crypto market. Past data shows that similar statements can cause fluctuations of 5% to 10% in Bitcoin prices in a single day.
In the second scenario, Powell is expected to adopt a more moderate tone and indicate the possibility of a loosening of inflation in the future. In this case, the dollar may weaken, bond yields may fall, and risk appetite may increase. Such a scenario could support an upward movement in crypto assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is considered that even a small signal regarding interest rate cuts could create a strong catalytic effect in the market.
Bitcoin remains at $77,000
Before the decision, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,500. From a technical perspective, the $73,500 level stands out as a strong support, and maintaining this level is considered critical for keeping the market structure positive. On the upside, the $80,646 level is being watched as a significant resistance.
