The sharp movements in gold and silver markets, considered safe havens, have become the focus of the global investment agenda in recent days. In particular, silver prices testing historical highs and the accompanying record ETF trading volumes have made the divergence from cryptocurrency markets even more visible. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has struggled to gain momentum, and according to some analysts, this calm indicates the calm before the storm.
Silver gains over 500%
The price of silver surpassed $117 per ounce, reaching an all-time high. Although it retreated to around $105 later in the day, silver's total increase since the end of 2017 has exceeded 500%. During the same period, Bitcoin has yielded approximately 500%, while gold has remained slightly below 300%. In short, precious metals have shown a stronger performance than crypto assets, especially in recent months.
Along with price increases, trading volumes have also exploded. The intense interest seen in silver-indexed ETFs has been noteworthy. iShares Silver Trust became the most traded security globally in a single day, with a trading volume exceeding $32 billion. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, this figure is approximately 15 times the fund's daily average. This volume even surpassed the S&P 500 ETF and giant stocks like Nvidia and Tesla on the same day. It is noted that psychological price levels and momentum trading played a significant role in this sharp rise. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, says that gold exceeding $5,000 and silver exceeding $100 triggered investor behavior. According to Puckrin, investors show strong interest in such symbolic thresholds, which accelerates the rise. Furthermore, structural demand for metals like silver and copper, used in AI infrastructure, data centers, and energy grids, also fueled the rally.
However, this enthusiasm did not last long. Following record highs, gold and silver experienced a sharp correction. In approximately 90 minutes, nearly $1.7 trillion in value was wiped from the markets. Silver saw a pullback of over 10%, while the decline in gold was more limited. Market commentators are interpreting this movement as intense profit-taking rather than panic. The partial easing of geopolitical tensions and the overcrowding of positions were among the factors that accelerated the sell-off. At this point, attention has turned back to Bitcoin. While precious metals experienced sharp sell-offs, Bitcoin remained relatively calm and managed to hold around $88,000. Some investors are interpreting this as a sign of a quiet accumulation process. Historical examples also support this view.
In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, it was observed that after strong increases in gold, capital flowed into crypto assets, and sharp rallies began in Bitcoin. One of the proponents of this view is Tom Lee, managing partner of Fundstrat. According to Lee, when the excessive rise in gold and silver begins to cool, it is possible for Bitcoin and Ethereum to experience a "catch-up rally". In his assessment on CNBC, Lee stated that the crypto markets have lagged behind in recent months due to a significant reduction in leverage, but that fundamental dynamics have strengthened. He also argued that a weak dollar and easing Fed policies could work in favor of crypto in the medium term. Therefore, while the sharp fluctuations in precious metals in general create uncertainty in the short term, some analysts believe this process could signal a new shift in direction for the crypto markets. The coming weeks are considered critical for clarifying this potential capital rotation.
