U.S. banking giant JPMorgan has stated that Bitcoin could outperform gold significantly in the second half of 2025. The bank’s analysts noted that this projection is supported by the rise in institutional investments, U.S. states approaching Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, and changes in market dynamics.
In the first half of the year, gold had gained strength while Bitcoin lagged behind. However, in the past three weeks, the picture has reversed. Since April 22, gold has dropped by around 8%, while Bitcoin has gained 18% in value. JPMorgan emphasizes that this movement is not solely due to weakness in gold, but also stems from developments specific to Bitcoin.
Strong Institutional Demand and State Support
According to JPMorgan analysts, Bitcoin investments by publicly traded companies have reached notable levels. Strategy aims to purchase $42 billion worth of Bitcoin by 2027. So far, 60% of this target has been achieved. Similarly, Japan-based Metaplanet continues its Bitcoin acquisitions.
On the other hand, U.S. states' approaches to crypto are also shifting. New Hampshire announced that up to 5% of public assets could be allocated to Bitcoin and gold, while Arizona is preparing to establish a digital asset reserve fund using staking and airdrop revenues.
Additionally, the licensing of derivative products by some exchanges in Europe is making institutional access to Bitcoin easier. While inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are increasing, outflows from gold ETFs have accelerated. A similar trend is seen in futures markets: Bitcoin positions are rising, while demand for gold is decreasing.
JPMorgan: Bitcoin May Replace Gold
According to JPMorgan, the combination of these developments could make Bitcoin a more advantageous asset in the second half of the year. The bank states that investor preferences are shifting and the gold-Bitcoin balance is turning in favor of Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s upward potential is being strengthened especially by institutional support and structural changes.
The analysts’ statement is as follows: “While gold gained value from mid-February to mid-April, we observed that in the last three weeks Bitcoin has started to outperform gold with its rapid rise. For the remainder of the year, we expect crypto-specific catalysts to place Bitcoin in a more favorable position than gold.”
Reasons Why Bitcoin Could Outperform Gold in 2025:
- Increase in Institutional Demand: Aggressive BTC purchases by companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet.
- State Support: Reserve initiatives from states such as New Hampshire and Arizona.
- ETF Inflows: Rising investor interest in spot Bitcoin funds.
- Gold Weakening: Recent weeks have seen outflows from gold ETFs.
- Structural Change: Licensing of crypto derivative products in Europe expands institutional access.
JPMorgan’s assessment shows that Bitcoin’s prominence in the investment world could further increase throughout the rest of 2025, potentially shaking the traditional appeal of gold.
