US inflation data (CPI/CPI), due today at 3:30 PM Turkish time, has become the most critical agenda item this week for both traditional markets and crypto investors. Due to the government shutdown in the US, September inflation data is being released with a delay of several weeks. Authorities are preparing to release a preliminary version of the data today to reduce market uncertainty. As October draws to a close, the data, which will particularly shape Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, is expected to cause high volatility in the markets.
Economists project a 0.4 percent monthly increase and a 3.1 percent annual increase for September. This rate suggests that consumer inflation could rise above 3 percent again in 2025 for the first time. A higher-than-expected data release could lead the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts, which could create selling pressure on risk assets.
Critical thresholds for Bitcoin price
Bitcoin is trading around $111,400 as of midday. Investors are watching to see if the price can break above $112,000 with the CPI data. Analyst Michael van de Poppe commented, “I think Bitcoin is approaching a volatile breakout. If interest rates start falling, this move could be to the upside.” Technical data suggests $107,000 as support, while $112,000 serves as resistance. The RSI indicator is at 43, suggesting the price still has upside potential.
The Fed and its macroeconomic impact
Following the CPI data, investors will turn their attention to next week’s Fed meeting. A lower-than-expected reading could signal that interest rate cuts could be on the agenda in November or December. Conversely, high inflation could strengthen the dollar index and trigger a short-term sell-off in the crypto market.
Some analysts suggest that Ethereum, in particular, could react more strongly to the CPI data. Volatility for ETH is expected to reach as high as 3%, while for Bitcoin, it is expected to remain around 1.5%.
On-chain data, however, suggests investor caution. According to Glassnode data, selling pressure is increasing among short-term Bitcoin holders, and analyst Ali Martinez warned, "If Bitcoin falls below the cost level of short-term investors, there could be a risk of a correction to $37,000."
Amidst all this uncertainty, investors are focusing on the CPI data, scheduled for release at 3:30 PM GMT. A lower reading could pave the way for a new rally in both crypto and equity markets in the final quarter of the year. However, in a reverse scenario, a sharp increase in volatility and a short-term market shakeout are likely.
