Bitcoin surged above $81,000 in the morning, reaching its highest level since late January. This move in the leading cryptocurrency comes amidst strong macroeconomic risks and a mixed outlook for other major crypto assets. Despite this, Bitcoin's break above the $80,000 threshold has begun to shift the balance, particularly in the options market, which is closely watched.
BTC was around $79,000 at the end of US trading hours on Monday. On Tuesday, it climbed above $81,000, gaining over 5% on a weekly basis. Currently trading around $80,689, investors are focused on whether the $80,000 level can be sustained. Other major assets in the market have seen more limited and mixed movements. Ethereum held steady around $2,379, experiencing a slight daily decline, but its weekly performance remained around 4%. XRP fell 0.03% to $1.40, while Solana similarly lost value, dropping to $84. BNB remained flat at $626.
Geopolitical risks persist, Bitcoin overcomes pressure for now
While Bitcoin is rising, tensions between the US and Iran continue. Brent oil rose sharply on Monday following the controversial missile claim regarding Iran. Although it later retreated partially, it remained around $113. WTI oil traded near $104. This high level of energy prices continues to put pressure on markets in terms of inflation and global risk appetite.
Developments in the region are also increasing uncertainty. It was reported that the US destroyers Truxtun and Mason passed through the Strait of Hormuz, escorting two US-flagged ships. While the US Central Command evaluated this passage in the context of "coordinated threats," the airstrike on a VTTI oil terminal in Fujairah kept concerns alive in the energy markets. US President Donald Trump's statement that the war could last two to three more weeks also indicated a weakening of the previously announced four-week ceasefire.
Despite this, Bitcoin's reaction to these developments appears more resilient compared to previous periods. The macro picture has not significantly improved, but the pressure of geopolitical issues on Bitcoin remains limited for now.
Option tables were waiting for a break above $80,000
A significant part of the recent movement in Bitcoin is seen as linked to positioning in the options market. Bitcoin volatility has been low in the last week. Since the price did not move quickly, investors did not heavily buy hedging options. When hedging demand arose, the market mostly turned to put options, i.e., hedging against a decline. This picture showed that the market was more concerned about a possible pullback than a rally. However, there was a different positioning under the surface. Some option tables started to set up low-cost upside bets. These transactions are usually done with "call ratio" strategies. In this strategy, the investor buys call options that will gain value if Bitcoin rises only slightly; To reduce costs, they are also selling other call options at higher levels. This allows the trade to be established at almost zero cost, providing an advantage in a scenario where Bitcoin rises gradually rather than experiencing a sharp surge. Two important headlines stand out for Bitcoin in the coming days. Strategy's earnings report, to be released on Tuesday, is being closely watched by the market due to the company's Bitcoin-focused structure. The US non-farm payrolls data, to be released on Friday, could also impact interest rate expectations and risk appetite.
