The crypto market is hovering just above a critical threshold on Wednesday. Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the $78,000 resistance on Tuesday and is now stuck above the $75,000 support, but below $76,000. That distinction is not trivial. Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee had said the end of the bear market could only be confirmed if BTC closed May above $76,000. For now, we are below that line.
Ethereum is not showing a very different picture. After being rejected from the $2,150 resistance on Tuesday, ETH slipped toward the $2,000 support. On Wednesday morning, it bounced from $2,050 and was trading around $2,080. The technical outlook, however, raises doubts. ETH has broken the uptrend line it had held since February, opening the door to deeper losses.
AI Tokens Give Back Their Gains
After Tuesday’s rally, closely watched AI tokens RENDER, FET and NEAR lost between 1% and 3% since midnight. The move has not created broad panic, but the overall altcoin picture remains cautious.
Two exceptions stand out. Hyperliquid’s HYPE token rose 5.5% after hitting a record high this week. Monero also gained 5%, retesting the $400 level. Both have become bright spots in an otherwise thin altcoin market in recent days.
The broader picture contrasts with equities. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures tested record levels on Wednesday, rising around 0.3%. As U.S. stocks continue to diverge from crypto, questions about the correlation between these two asset classes are moving back to the top of the agenda.
There Is a Quiet Warning in Futures
After the holiday weekend, futures trading volumes rose 54% to $201 billion on a 24-hour basis, while liquidations jumped 87%. These large percentage increases can primarily be explained by the end of the holiday lull; they do not necessarily reflect a structural shift.
Still, there is a more striking picture in the background. Bitcoin fell 1% over the past 24 hours, while open interest climbed from 704,000 BTC to 740,000 BTC. When price falls while open interest rises, the combination is usually interpreted as confirmation of a downtrend. Negative cumulative volume delta (CVD) also shows that market participants are selling aggressively, while funding rates remain neutral for now.
There is also a concerning signal on the Ethereum side. ETH open interest has reached an all-time high of 15.57 million ETH. When this appears alongside negative CVD, it may suggest that traders are positioning for deeper price declines.
Zcash (ZEC) is showing the opposite setup. Open interest in ZEC futures has fallen for a third consecutive day, while the price has dropped to $564. When price and open interest decline at the same time, it is often driven by the closing of existing long positions rather than the opening of new short positions.
Deribit Data Points to Downside Bets
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, rose by around 3% to 37.35, breaking a 10-day losing streak. This recovery from yearly lows may indicate that the market is starting to seek protection against a potential price shock.
The options market sends a clearer signal. According to Deribit data, the most traded contract over the past 24 hours was a put option pointing to Bitcoin falling to $55,000 by the end of September. Overall activity is concentrated around downside hedges at various strike prices between $70,000 and $76,000.
In short, the market still does not know where it wants to go. Bitcoin is holding just above the $75,000 support, but Tom Lee’s $76,000 line remains out of reach. Futures, implied volatility and options positioning all point in the same direction: investors are preparing for downside.
