The Bitcoin price started the week cautiously, trading around $114,000. Investors are reconsidering their positions in anticipation of a rate cut at this week's US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The market is generally flat, with major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Binance Coin (BNB) experiencing average declines of around 2%.
Bitcoin, which rose from $104,800 to $116,000 last week, was strengthened by positive signals regarding China-US trade talks and increased risk appetite. However, in the new week, investors are choosing to wait for the impact of a potential interest rate cut on the market.
"Bitcoin's recent recovery indicates that institutional investors are re-entering the market and long-term confidence is increasing," said Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet. Zhang noted that open interest volume has increased from $25 billion to $30 billion, emphasizing that this could both increase upside potential and increase the risk of liquidation in the event of a potential decline. According to market data, open interest and funding rates on derivatives exchanges remain high but remain stable. This suggests traders are not taking excessive risks.
Fed decision awaited
The Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held on October 28–29. Markets expect a second 25 basis point interest rate cut and a widening of the interest rate range to 4.00–4.25 percent. This decision is considered the clearest indication that the central bank is shifting from monetary tightening to easing.
Zhang said, "Powell is expected to maintain his emphasis on data-driven action in his statements, signaling a controlled liquidity expansion. This supports both bond demand and appetite for risky assets."
This "dovish" stance is taking shape amid the delayed release of official economic data due to the US government shutdown. Powell is reportedly placing greater emphasis on private sector indicators (such as the ADP employment report) to compensate for the lack of data.
Bitcoin is strong, altcoins are weak
Bitcoin gained 5.8 percent on a weekly basis, positively decoupling from other cryptocurrencies. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich commented, “Bitcoin used its 200-day moving average as support and rose above $116,000. The $117,000-$120,000 range is a strong resistance zone, but a sustained breakout could lead to new highs.”
In contrast, the altcoin market is showing a mixed picture. Ethereum (ETH) fell 2.6 percent to $4,115. Solana (SOL) is trading around $202, while BNB is down 2 percent. XRP is trading around $2.65, and DOGE is trading around $0.20.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin, which has been dormant for more than seven years, is moving at a record pace. This suggests that some early investors are taking profits. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at approximately $3.9 trillion and remains above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Analysts note that the market has moved past its fear phase, with investors now shifting to a "wait-and-see" mode.
With the expectation of a rate cut, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate in the $115,000–$120,000 range in the coming days. The market's direction will be determined by the potential increased volatility following the Fed's decision and the reaction of leveraged positions.
