Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, in his comprehensive assessment of 2026, argued that the crypto market is entering not just a price cycle, but a structural transformation. According to Hougan, the next two years mark a period where the established patterns will become obsolete for the entire crypto ecosystem, especially Bitcoin. Bitwise's 10 predictions show the areas where this transformation will be concentrated.
Bitwise's 10 predictions
The first and most striking prediction is that Bitcoin will break the classic four-year cycle. According to Hougan, Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, and the historically established model of "three years of uptrend, one year of downtrend" will become invalid. Although the fact that the last halving occurred in April 2024 strengthens the expectation that 2026 will be a year of decline, Bitwise does not agree with this view. According to the company, 2026 will be a year of uptrend, contrary to expectations.
The second prediction concerns Bitcoin's volatility. Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin's volatility will be even lower than high-volume technology stocks like Nvidia in 2026. This is interpreted as a sign that Bitcoin is gradually transforming into a more mature and stable asset class.
The third point focuses on ETFs. According to Bitwise, spot ETFs will purchase more than 100% of the new BTC, ETH, and SOL supply released to the market. This prediction shows that institutional demand could reach a level that is not only strong but also exceeds supply.
The fourth prediction is that crypto-related company stocks will outperform technology stocks. Crypto-focused companies such as mining firms, exchange operators, and infrastructure providers are expected to outperform classic technology stocks.
Fifth is Polymarket. Bitwise predicts that open positions on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket will reach an all-time high. This indicates a significant increase in interest in on-chain prediction markets.
The sixth prediction concerns stablecoins. According to Bitwise, stablecoins will be cited as one of the main causes of currency instability, especially in developing countries. The acceleration of the flight from local currencies could bring the use of stablecoins to the center of political and economic debates.
The seventh prediction focuses on on-chain vaults and asset management. Bitwise expects assets managed in on-chain vaults to double by 2026. This growth is linked to the increased adoption of DeFi by institutions.
The eighth prediction is related to the legal framework for crypto in the US. If the US passes a crypto market structure law, according to Bitwise, Ethereum and Solana could reach new all-time highs. Regulatory clarity is considered critical, especially for smart contract platforms.
The ninth prediction is quite ambitious. Bitwise suggests that all Ivy League universities will direct at least half of their endowment funds directly or indirectly to crypto assets. This step could be a significant turning point in terms of the academic and institutional legitimacy of crypto. The tenth and final prediction is that the ETF trend will continue unabated in the US. Bitwise forecasts that more than 100 altcoin ETFs could be launched by 2026. This development could allow the crypto market to offer a much wider range of investment products.
