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Bitcoin failed to hold its gains following the Fed’s decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks. After trading above $81,000 on the evening of October 28, the price fell below $80,000 on the morning of October 29. A subsequent recovery pushed it back above that level.The Fed’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%–4%, alongside Warsh’s message that officials would wait for more data, initially offered modest support to markets. However, Bitcoin gave back its earlier gains as selling intensified in the morning.Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 in morning tradingBitcoin rose to approximately $81,100 during Warsh’s press conference. Meanwhile, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield declined from 4.78% to 4.73%. Bitcoin continued trading above $81,300 after the U.S. session.However, the price turned lower in the early hours of October 29. Morning data showed Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading range stretching from $79,636 to $81,698. The gap between the period’s highest and lowest prices therefore exceeded $2,000. At approximately noon Turkish time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,152. Its 24-hour decline reached 1.54%. Although the price reclaimed the $80,000 threshold, it remained below the previous evening’s levels.The chart also showed that the recovery following the sharp decline remained limited. Bitcoin approached $80,500 later in the morning before encountering renewed selling pressure. Trading subsequently concentrated around $80,000.Fed holds rates steady as two officials favor a hikeThe Federal Open Market Committee approved the rate decision in a 10–2 vote. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favored a 25-basis-point increase.The policy statement emphasized that economic activity was expanding at a strong pace while inflation remained elevated. The committee said additional information would help it determine the appropriate policy stance to return inflation to its 2% target. The October meeting therefore ended with a pause following September’s rate increase.Warsh highlights changes in financial conditionsWarsh said financing conditions had tightened for some businesses and households since the September decision. He added that market participants had become more selective in allocating capital. However, he stopped short of describing overall financial conditions as “tight.”The Fed chair offered a positive assessment of employment conditions. However, he stressed the importance of preventing rising energy prices from spreading to other parts of the economy. He said inflation expectations needed to remain anchored and reiterated officials’ readiness to act when necessary.During the question-and-answer session, Warsh said the Fed’s policies were beginning to produce results. Still, he cautioned that officials had not yet reached firm conclusions. He said the data-rich period ahead would provide greater clarity for monetary policy.December rate expectations remain in focus for cryptoThe decision to hold rates steady did not signal a shift toward expectations of a rate cut. Immediately after the announcement, CME FedWatch data put the probability of a 25-basis-point increase in December at approximately 86%. That compared with around 78% a day earlier.For the crypto market, the picture points to a modest price recovery alongside expectations of persistently high interest rates. Warsh’s wait-for-data approach provided short-term relief. Meanwhile, rising oil prices and continued inflation pressures remained among the factors limiting investors’ appetite for risk.
Bitcoin traded around $81,000 ahead of the Fed decision, while major altcoins also recovered. Crypto investors turned their attention to how the US central bank’s messaging could shape risk appetite for the rest of the year.In morning trading, Bitcoin rose approximately 2% to just below $82,000. At the time of writing, it is trading around $81,424. Ethereum gained around 2% to move above $2,350, while Solana posted a similar increase to reach approximately $102.Altcoins Recover Ahead of the Fed DecisionXRP and Dogecoin gained approximately 3%. Zcash climbed 8% to around $1,320, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token rose roughly 5% to trade near $81.BNB gained around 1%, while TRX advanced less than 1%. The rebound, following Bitcoin’s weekend decline to approximately $79,000, showed buying spreading across crypto assets ahead of the decision.Following the Fed announcement, investors will watch whether Bitcoin holds its gains and whether Ethereum and other major altcoins sustain their momentum.Interest Rates Expected to Remain UnchangedThe Fed decision will be announced today at 9:00 p.m. Turkish time, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 9:30 p.m. According to the official schedule, this meeting will not include new economic forecasts or interest rate projections.The central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% in September. The prevailing expectation for October is that rates will remain at this level.CME FedWatch data priced in a 93.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged.For crypto assets, one key consideration will be how long the current rate stays in place. Elevated borrowing costs can affect leverage and the capital investors allocate to risk assets, making the prospect of further tightening a closely watched issue.Liquidations Draw Attention in Leveraged TradingMeanwhile, market data showed approximately $175 million in crypto positions liquidated over the past 24 hours. Short positions accounted for most liquidations, while open interest in Bitcoin futures increased by 0.65%. The closure of positions betting on falling prices can create additional buying pressure during a rally. Assessing the strength of a price increase therefore requires looking at both spot demand and moves driven by the unwinding of leveraged positions.Coinbase Institutional also highlighted Bitcoin’s sensitivity to interest rate expectations in its October 16 assessment. The firm noted that Treasury yields rose following strong inflation data, while Bitcoin fell from approximately $83,800 to below $82,000.Which Signals Will Matter After the Decision?Following the Fed decision, the initial focus will be on how much room the policy statement leaves for further rate increases. Crypto markets could face selling pressure if Warsh describes inflation pressures as persistent and reinforces the prospect of additional tightening.A more cautious approach that emphasizes monitoring incoming data could soften investors’ rate expectations. These are potential scenarios that depend on the tone of the announcement; leaving rates unchanged alone does not guarantee a Bitcoin rally.Whether Ethereum and Solana follow Bitcoin’s moves around $81,000 will indicate how broadly the market is responding. Changes in trading volume and open interest will also help investors assess whether new positions or the closure of existing trades are driving the move.The statement released at 9:00 p.m. and the press conference half an hour later could trigger different price reactions. Investors will therefore watch whether the market’s initial direction holds as Warsh answers questions.
Bitcoin started the week of October 26–November 1 at around $80,100. Ether was trading near $2,320 at the time of writing. The Fed’s interest-rate decision and US inflation data are at the center of the market’s attention. Balancer’s transition to withdrawal mode, corporate earnings and network upgrades will also shape the week.Fed decision will arrive before the PCE reportThe Federal Reserve will hold its penultimate meeting of the year on October 27–28. Its official calendar shows the decision arriving on Wednesday, October 28, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will begin at 9:30 p.m. Of the 100 economists surveyed by Reuters, 94 expect the target rate to remain at 3.75%–4%.The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. Investors will now focus on any signals about the December meeting.The PCE report will arrive one day after the decision. According to the BEA calendar, the data will be released on Thursday, October 29, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time.Annual PCE inflation stood at 3.4% in August. The FactSet median forecast expects the September rate to climb to 3.7%.The forecast for core PCE inflation stands at 3.1%. A higher result could strengthen expectations for another rate increase in December.The first estimate of US third-quarter economic growth will be published at the same time. Personal income, spending and weekly jobless claims will also be released.The third-quarter Employment Cost Index will arrive on Friday, October 30, at 3:30 p.m. The report will show the latest level of wage-driven inflation pressure.Four other major central banks will announce decisionsThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its interest-rate decision on October 28 at 4:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Its current policy rate stands at 2.75%.Markets assign a probability of around 75% to an increase to 3%. The Bank of Canada will announce its decision later that day at 4:45 p.m.Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference will begin at 5:30 p.m. Of the 34 economists surveyed by Reuters, 19 expect a 25-basis-point increase, which would lift the policy rate to 2.50%.The European Central Bank will announce its decision on Thursday, October 29, at 4:15 p.m. Christine Lagarde’s press conference will begin at 4:45 p.m.Most economists expect the deposit rate to remain at 2.50%. Expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in December are gaining prominence.The Bank of Japan will meet on October 29–30. Its decision is expected on the morning of October 30, followed by a press conference at 9:30 a.m. Türkiye time.Reuters surveys point to the rate remaining at 1.25%. Markets are pricing in the possibility of an increase to 1.50% in December.Oil prices keep inflation risks aliveBrent crude traded near $110 on the first day of the week. The price reached $116.72 on Friday, its highest level since June 2022.The war with Iran and disruptions to energy shipments continue to keep the risk premium elevated. Another rise in oil prices could influence the Fed, ECB and BOJ decisions.The UK government will present its Autumn Budget on October 28. Tax and borrowing decisions could move sterling and global bond yields.Now, let's move on to crypto developments. The crypto market also faces a busy week of protocol, exchange and token-related developments:Balancer will enter withdrawal modeThe Balancer community approved an orderly wind-down of the protocol in September. BIP-928 calls for eligible pools to enter withdrawal mode on October 30.The bug bounty program will end on the same date. The final pause of the V3 Vault is scheduled for November 30.The community is also voting on BIP-934, BIP-935 and BIP-936. The results are expected to become final on October 27.BIP-934 proposes burning the DAO’s holdings of 10 million BEETS. The tokens have a nominal value of approximately $39,000.BIP-936 defines the technical onchain steps required for the shutdown. The plan will close pool factories and reduce protocol fees to zero.Authorized parties will be able to pause eligible pools on October 30. Withdrawal functions will remain available to users.BNB Chain, Hedera and Unichain will undergo upgradesBNB Chain will activate its Jenner upgrade on the testnet on October 28. The mainnet date will be announced later.Jenner will reserve 5% of block capacity for eligible payments. The upgrade will also introduce millisecond timestamps and CAS20 support.Hedera will upgrade to version 0.78.2 at 8:00 p.m. Türkiye time on the same day. Its status page warns of a service interruption lasting approximately 40 minutes.The Unichain mainnet will migrate to OP Enterprise infrastructure on October 29. Chain ID, balances, applications and contracts will remain unchanged.Optimism will take over sequencer, RPC and incident-management operations under the new structure. The migration will prepare Unichain for native interoperability across OP Stack chains.Lisk Chain will cease operations on October 31. The project has asked users to withdraw all assets by that date.Bridge transactions can take seven days, creating a risk of delays. The warning covers LSK, ETH, stablecoins and DeFi positions.Binance, Bybit and Bitget will delist trading pairsBinance will end spot trading for EPIC and QUICK on October 28 at 6:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Open orders and trading bots will close at the same time.The exchange will stop crediting deposits made after October 29 at 6:00 a.m. Withdrawals will remain available until December 28 at 6:00 a.m.Bybit will close HFT deposits on October 27 at 11:00 a.m. HFT/USDT spot trading will end on October 28 at 11:00 a.m.Bitget will remove the ZENT, MOODENG and HEI pairs on October 30 at 1:00 p.m. The exchange will keep withdrawals open until January 30, 2027.CFTC will discuss AI-driven tradingThe CFTC will begin its Frontier Forum meeting on October 28 at 8:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The program will focus on superintelligence and autonomous trading systems.The second session will cover AI agents that conduct financial transactions. Participants will discuss how existing CFTC rules apply to these activities.The meeting does not mark the introduction of a new regulation. It could still provide a policy signal for autonomous financial applications linked to crypto.M, FF and EIGEN unlocks stand outMemeCore will conduct the week’s largest token unlock. The project will release 56.11 million M tokens on November 1.Based on the token’s price on the morning of October 26, the unlock is worth approximately $56 million. The amount represents around 2.8% of the circulating supply.Falcon Finance will unlock 75 million FF on October 29 at 2:52 p.m. The tokens are currently worth approximately $7.42 million.Some calendars show a second distribution of 128.06 million FF on the same day. Investors should therefore monitor the project’s final distribution figures.EigenCloud will release 36.82 million EIGEN on October 31 at 4:15 p.m. The tokens are worth approximately $7.29 million at the current price.The distribution covers investors and early contributors. The amount equals approximately 3.77% of the circulating supply.ZORA will unlock 166.67 million tokens on October 30 at 5:46 a.m. The distribution, worth approximately $1.03 million, will go to the team, investors and treasury.Another 271.06 million GUN will unlock on the same day at 2:52 p.m. The approximately $550,000 distribution equals close to 7% of the circulating supply.Tracking sources publish different figures for SUI. DefiLlama shows 2.07 million SUI unlocking on October 31 at 5:31 a.m.Another calendar calculates a total of 6.07 million SUI across two separate distributions. Approximately $1.9 million therefore represents a conservative lower estimate.ZetaChain will unlock 44.26 million ZETA on November 1 at 12:58 p.m. The tokens are currently worth approximately $1.73 million.All dollar values were calculated using spot prices on the morning of October 26 and are approximate.Four crypto companies will report earningsGalaxy Digital will publish its third-quarter results before the market opens on October 27. Its conference call will begin at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time.Robinhood will report its results after US markets close on the same day. The management webcast will begin at midnight Türkiye time on October 28.Coinbase will publish its third-quarter results after the market closes on October 29. Its question-and-answer session will begin at midnight on October 30.Strategy will also report after the closing bell on October 29. Investors will follow the valuation of its Bitcoin holdings, tax effects and capital raises.The company’s webcast will begin at midnight Türkiye time on October 30.Events will begin in Buenos Aires and MumbaiLABITCONF will take place in Buenos Aires on October 30–31. The program will focus on Bitcoin, blockchain, artificial intelligence and Latin American markets.India Blockchain Week will begin in Mumbai on November 1. The two-day conference will cover DeFi, infrastructure, tokenization and institutional adoption.The DeFi Security Summit will also take place in Mumbai on November 1–2. Security researchers, auditors and protocol developers will attend the event.This week’s 45-event crypto calendarOctober 26, 10:11 a.m. Türkiye time: Approximately $1.11 million in WAL unlocks.October 26, 12:58 p.m.: Approximately $1.50 million in ALT unlocks.October 27, 3:30 p.m.: Galaxy Digital’s third-quarter earnings.October 27, 3:30 p.m.: US durable goods orders.October 27, 5:00 p.m.: US consumer confidence.October 27, 5:00 p.m.: US new home sales.October 27: Results of Balancer proposals BIP-934, BIP-935 and BIP-936.October 28, midnight: Robinhood’s third-quarter earnings webcast.October 28, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $518,000 in IOTA unlocks.October 28, 4:00 a.m.: Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest-rate decision.October 28, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit ends HFT trading.October 28, 6:00 a.m.: Binance ends EPIC and QUICK trading.October 28: BNB Chain’s Jenner testnet upgrade.October 28, 3:30 p.m.: US goods trade and wholesale inventory data.October 28, 4:45 p.m.: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision.October 28, 8:00 p.m.: CFTC Frontier Forum meeting.October 28, 8:00 p.m.: Hedera v0.78.2 mainnet upgrade.October 28, 9:00 p.m.: Fed interest-rate decision.October 28, 9:30 p.m.: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.October 28: UK Autumn Budget.October 29, 2:52 p.m.: At least 75 million FF unlocks.October 29, 3:30 p.m.: First estimate of US third-quarter GDP growth.October 29, 3:30 p.m.: US September PCE inflation.October 29, 3:30 p.m.: US weekly jobless claims.October 29, 4:15 p.m.: ECB interest-rate decision.October 29: Unichain’s migration to OP Enterprise infrastructure.October 30, midnight: Coinbase’s third-quarter earnings webcast.October 30, midnight: Strategy’s third-quarter earnings webcast.October 30, 4:23 a.m.: Approximately $1.58 million in ASTER unlocks.October 30, 5:46 a.m.: Approximately $1.03 million in ZORA unlocks.Morning of October 30: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision.October 30, 1:00 p.m.: Bitget removes three spot trading pairs.October 30, 2:52 p.m.: Approximately $550,000 in GUN unlocks.October 30, 3:30 p.m.: US Employment Cost Index.October 30, 4:45 p.m.: Chicago PMI.October 30: Balancer pools enter withdrawal mode.October 30–31: LABITCONF Buenos Aires.October 31, 4:00 a.m.: Puffer Gauge vote concludes.Morning of October 31: SUI token unlock.October 31, 4:15 p.m.: Approximately $7.29 million in EIGEN unlocks.October 31: Final day to withdraw assets from Lisk Chain.November 1: Approximately $56 million in M unlocks.November 1, 12:58 p.m.: Approximately $1.73 million in ZETA unlocks.November 1: India Blockchain Week begins.November 1: DeFi Security Summit begins.
Bitcoin started the week of October 19–25 at around $82,600. Ethereum was trading near $2,425 at the time of writing, while the crypto market focused on Solana’s Alpenglow transition, global PMI data and three central bank decisions. China’s economy expanded by 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, producing the week’s first published macroeconomic result. Growth exceeded the 4.4% forecast, although weakness in retail sales and property investment continued to limit the global demand outlook.Fed enters blackout period as PCE data moves to next weekFederal Reserve officials have entered the blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. No new Fed speech capable of materially changing the interest-rate outlook is scheduled for this week.Some economic calendars show PCE inflation and third-quarter growth data during the current week. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish both reports on October 29 at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time.The Fed will announce its rate decision on October 28 at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The chair’s press conference will begin at 9:30 p.m.Markets will assess housing data, jobless claims, global PMI results and oil prices before the meeting.Flash PMI data will offer growth and inflation signalsFlash PMI results for October will arrive on Friday, October 23. The euro-area composite PMI will be released at 11:00 a.m., followed by UK data at 11:30 a.m. and US manufacturing and services readings at 4:45 p.m. Türkiye time.Input costs and selling prices could prove as important as the headline readings. The UK services PMI slipped to 51.7 in September, while prices charged by companies increased at the fastest pace in four months.US housing starts and building permits for September will be released on Tuesday, October 20, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Weekly initial jobless claims will follow on Thursday, October 22, at the same time.Three central banks will announce rate decisionsThe Hungarian National Bank will announce its policy decision on October 20. Economists expect rates to remain unchanged, while energy costs and the forint’s performance will shape the risk assessment in the policy statement.The Bank of Korea will meet on October 21. The main market scenario points to an unchanged rate, while moves in the won and regional technology stocks could spill over into crypto markets.The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye will announce its decision on Thursday, October 22, at 2:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Market forecasts center on a reduction in the policy rate from 37% to 36%; this figure represents the pre-meeting consensus rather than a published decision.Canada’s September inflation data will arrive on October 20 at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. UK inflation will follow on October 21 at 9:00 a.m., while the country’s retail sales report will be released on Friday, October 23, at 9:00 a.m.Oil prices keep pressure on interest ratesBrent crude started the week near $108 per barrel. Expectations that sanctions on Russia could be eased pushed futures prices lower, while risks around the Strait of Hormuz kept tanker and insurance costs elevated.The transmission of energy costs into transportation and food prices could delay central bank rate cuts. High bond yields and a strong dollar could also create liquidity pressure for Bitcoin and altcoins.Comment period closes for the SEC’s crypto proposalThe comment period for the SEC’s “Regulation Crypto Assets” proposal will close on October 20. The proposal introduces a separate disclosure regime for crypto asset offerings and a conditional safe harbor for determining whether certain projects constitute investment contracts.The draft contains two offering exemptions: one covering up to $5 million over four years and another covering up to $75 million over 12 months. The end of the comment period will not finalize the proposal, as the SEC must review the feedback and hold a separate vote.Solana Alpenglow will activate on mainnetSolana plans to activate its Alpenglow consensus system on Wednesday, October 21, at approximately 6:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The transition will occur during mainnet epoch 1,064, although the exact time could shift by several minutes depending on block production.Alpenglow aims to reduce finality from approximately 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. The change primarily updates how the network reaches agreement on blocks rather than altering the transaction execution layer.Validators must switch to a compatible client based on Agave 4.3.0. Firedancer and Frankendancer clients will not be supported during the initial transition.Filecoin, Aero and XRP Ledger enter the calendarBinance will suspend Filecoin deposits and withdrawals on October 19 at 2:59 p.m. Türkiye time. The network upgrade and hard fork are expected to occur at block height 6,470,279 at approximately 3:59 p.m., while spot trading will remain available.The Aero protocol, created through the merger of Aerodrome and Velodrome, will launch on October 22 at 3:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Users will be able to convert veAERO balances into sAERO at a one-to-one ratio, while each VELO will convert into 0.044 AERO.The fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment on XRP Ledger is expected to activate on October 23 at approximately 12:34 p.m. Türkiye time. The date remains conditional because the 14-day countdown will reset if validator support falls below the required 80% threshold.Upbit and Bitget will end trading supportUpbit will end trading support for ICON on October 19 at 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange will cancel open ICX orders, while users should check the separate deadline for withdrawals.Bitget will stop allowing new positions in the EPICUSDT perpetual futures contract on October 20 at 7:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange will delist the contract at 10:00 a.m. and settle remaining positions under its settlement rules.Bitget will also remove DRIFT, RVV, DOG, SWEAT, ICX, PUMPBTC, GAIB and RTX spot pairs on October 23 at 1:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Withdrawals for the affected assets will remain available until January 23, 2027, at 1:00 p.m.No high-profile new spot token listing has been confirmed on a major exchange for the week. Aero’s launch represents the main development involving a new product and token merger.Arbitrum and Cardano votes will concludeCardano’s stake pool operator poll on increasing the target number of stake pools from 500 to 1,000 will end on October 21. The result will provide community feedback for future governance decisions without automatically changing the protocol parameter.Four Arbitrum proposals will close on October 22. They cover a 1,700 ETH treasury transfer, layer-1 pricing ahead of Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade, a voting recovery system and the adoption of USDG as a strategic initiative.ZRO, TON and AVAX supplies will expandLayerZero is expected to release approximately 23.6 million ZRO on October 20. Based on the token’s $1.89 price at the time of writing, the unlock is worth approximately $44.7 million.The TON Believers Fund schedule includes an unlock worth approximately $49 million on October 23. Avalanche will release 1.67 million AVAX from its foundation allocation on October 24 at around 11:20 p.m. Türkiye time, giving the unlock an approximate value of $16.3 million at the current price.Tracking platforms display different times for the KAITO unlock, ranging from the evening of October 19 to October 20. The approximately 17.6 million KAITO involved are worth around $4.9 million at the current price.Calendar providers also show different dates for the Humanity Protocol unlock, listing either October 23 or October 25. The approximately 266 million H tokens are worth around $15.1 million based on the price at the time of writing.Sources report between 88.9 million and 227.8 million XPL for the scheduled unlock. At the current price of $0.077, its approximate value ranges from $6.8 million to $17.5 million, depending on the allocations included.All dollar figures are approximate and based on current spot prices. Token tracking platforms classify linear distributions and same-day allocations differently, creating discrepancies in the H and XPL figures in particular.Tesla earnings and Plan ₿ Forum enter focusNo major publicly traded crypto company has confirmed an earnings release for this week. Coinbase and Strategy will report on October 29, after the current calendar period.Bitcoin holder Tesla will release its third-quarter results after the US market closes on October 21. Due to the time difference, the company’s conference call will begin on Thursday, October 22, at 12:30 a.m. Türkiye time.Plan ₿ Week in Lugano will host educational, developer and Bitcoin community events from October 19 to 25. The main Plan ₿ Forum will take place on October 23–24, focusing on nation-state Bitcoin adoption, financial freedom and payment infrastructure.This week’s 38-event crypto calendarOctober 19, 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time: Upbit ends ICX trading support.October 19, 2:59 p.m.: Binance suspends FIL deposits and withdrawals.October 19, approximately 3:59 p.m.: Filecoin network upgrade and hard fork.October 19–25: Lugano Plan ₿ Week.October 19–20: Approximately $4.9 million KAITO unlock.October 20, 7:00 a.m.: Bitget stops allowing new EPICUSDT positions.October 20, 10:00 a.m.: Bitget delists the EPICUSDT perpetual contract.October 20: Hungarian National Bank interest-rate decision.October 20: Comment period closes for the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal.October 20: Approximately $44.7 million ZRO unlock.October 20, 3:30 p.m.: US housing starts and building permits.October 20, 3:30 p.m.: Canada’s September inflation data.October 21, 9:00 a.m.: UK inflation data for September.Morning of October 21: Bank of Korea interest-rate decision.October 21, approximately 6:00 p.m.: Solana Alpenglow transition.October 21: Cardano’s stake pool target poll concludes.October 22, 12:30 a.m.: Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call.October 22, 3:00 a.m.: Aero protocol launches.October 22, 2:00 p.m.: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye interest-rate decision.October 22, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.October 22: Arbitrum’s 1,700 ETH transfer vote concludes.October 22: Arbitrum’s layer-1 pricing proposal closes.October 22: Arbitrum’s voting recovery system proposal closes.October 22: Arbitrum’s USDG strategic initiative proposal closes.October 23, 9:00 a.m.: UK retail sales for September.October 23, 11:00 a.m.: Flash euro-area PMI data for October.October 23, 11:30 a.m.: Flash UK PMI data for October.October 23, approximately 12:34 p.m.: Target activation time for XRP Ledger’s fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment.October 23, 1:00 p.m.: Bitget removes eight spot trading pairs.October 23, 4:45 p.m.: Flash US PMI data for October.October 23: Approximately $6.3 million SOON unlock.October 23: Approximately $49 million supply unlock under the TON Believers Fund schedule.October 23–24: Lugano Plan ₿ Forum.October 24, around 12:00 p.m.: Approximately $6.9 million SOSO unlock.October 24, approximately 11:20 p.m.: Approximately $16.3 million AVAX unlock.October 25, 3:00 a.m. according to one calendar provider: Approximately $15.1 million H unlock.October 25, approximately 10:00 a.m.: Approximately $5 million COAI unlock.October 25, approximately 3:00 p.m.: XPL supply unlock, with an estimated value of $6.8 million to $17.5 million.Solana’s Alpenglow transition will be the week’s most significant crypto-specific technical event. The broader market direction could depend more heavily on Friday’s PMI data, central bank decisions, Brent crude near $108 and rate expectations ahead of the next Fed meeting.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.3% in September from the previous month, exceeding expectations. Annual producer inflation reached 6.3%. The figures brought inflation pressures back into focus for Federal Reserve policy, with implications for Bitcoin and altcoins.The report, released on October 15, showed the largest monthly increase in producer prices since March 2022. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.6% rise. The monthly increase was therefore more than double that forecast.Weekly initial jobless claims, released the same day, came in at 199,000. While the labor market figure was close to expectations, producer inflation delivered the most significant surprise.US PPI Data Shows Persistent Inflation PressureAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for final demand goods rose 2.6%. Services prices increased 0.8% month over month. The breakdown showed that price pressures persisted across both goods and services.PPI measures changes in the prices producers receive for their goods and services. The report therefore offers early signals about corporate pricing trends. However, increases in producer prices do not always pass through to consumer prices immediately or at the same rate.Companies can absorb some cost increases depending on demand and competition. Businesses that pass higher prices on to their customers, meanwhile, can contribute to persistent consumer inflation.For the crypto market, the main connection runs through monetary policy. Persistent inflation can make it harder for the conditions needed for rate cuts to emerge. This creates an unfavorable scenario for investors expecting a rapid easing of liquidity conditions.The Fed’s Response Matters for BitcoinThe Fed uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE, to track its inflation target. Some components of the PPI report also feed into that measure. As a result, the report’s underlying details can influence expectations for upcoming inflation releases.An extended period of high interest rates can make interest-bearing assets more attractive. It can also limit demand for riskier investments by keeping borrowing costs elevated.Bitcoin and altcoins are among the assets that can be affected by these conditions. Changes in interest rate expectations can amplify price swings, particularly when leveraged trading is heavy. However, this relationship does not guarantee that prices will move in the same direction after every inflation release.Expectations formed before the announcement also shape the market’s response. If investors have already priced in high inflation, a strong reading may trigger only a limited reaction. An unexpected deterioration, however, can have a more pronounced effect on risk appetite.At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading lower, partly reflecting the impact of the previous day’s inflation data. Jobless Claims Deliver Little SurpriseThe number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 199,000. With the previous week’s figure revised to 198,000, the weekly increase was limited to 1,000. Reuters reported that claims remained consistent with a low level of layoffs.Low claims do not point to a sudden deterioration in the labor market. However, weekly applications are not a direct measure of total employment or new hiring.The Fed considers inflation and employment data together. The absence of a significant labor market slowdown may reduce the need for rapid rate cuts to support the economy. Combined with elevated inflation, this could strengthen the case for maintaining tight monetary policy.For the crypto market, upcoming PCE data, Fed communications and Treasury yields will be key to assessing the outlook. The dollar’s performance will also provide additional signals about global risk appetite.The September PPI report points to greater interest rate and liquidity risks for Bitcoin. How much those risks affect prices will depend on Fed expectations alongside fund flows specific to the crypto market.
The crypto market is focused on September’s US inflation data, due today at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. With Bitcoin trading below $84,000 ahead of the release, investors will watch how four key indicators shape the Fed’s interest rate outlook. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ calendar confirms the October 14 release.Forecasts suggest headline inflation could accelerate while monthly core inflation slows. This divergence could trigger reversals in Bitcoin and altcoins after the initial price reaction.What Are the Expectations for US Inflation?A forecast table citing The Wall Street Journal and Nick Timiraos puts the median monthly CPI estimate at 0.58%. The annual inflation forecast stands at 3.6%.For core CPI, which excludes food and energy, the median monthly estimate is 0.22%. The same table puts annual core inflation expectations at 2.4%.IndicatorSeptember Forecast, Shared TableAugust, Table ValueMonthly CPI0.58%0.40%Annual CPI3.6%3.4%Monthly Core CPI0.22%0.29%Annual Core CPI2.4%2.4%Rounded to one decimal place, the monthly forecasts correspond to approximately 0.6% and 0.2%. However, a survey cited by MarketWatch puts annual core inflation expectations at 2.5%, highlighting a small difference between sources.Institutional forecasts in the table also split into two groups on annual core inflation. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs expect 2.5%, while JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and UBS forecast 2.4%.Bitcoin Trades Below $84,000 Ahead of the ReleaseAt the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $83,400. For Bitcoin, the extent to which the figures deviate from expectations matters. An increase in annual CPI from the previous month may not trigger a fresh selloff if markets already anticipate it.Similarly, slower monthly core inflation does not guarantee a rally. Investor positioning ahead of the release and the bond market’s response could influence the strength of the move.How Could Above-Forecast Inflation Affect Crypto?Core CPI exceeding forecasts could strengthen expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy. In that scenario, rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could weigh on demand for crypto assets.Alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum and less liquid altcoins could also face pressure. In markets with heavy leveraged positioning, liquidations could amplify the initial price move.Conversely, below-forecast core inflation could support expectations of easing interest rate pressure. A decline in the dollar and Treasury yields could create more favorable conditions for Bitcoin and altcoins.These scenarios outline the potential channels through which the data could affect markets. ETF demand, spot trading volume and crypto-specific developments could also influence prices.Core Figures Will Matter Beyond the Headline ReadingHigh headline CPI alongside low core CPI could send a mixed signal. Investors would then examine whether price increases remain concentrated in energy or extend more broadly into services.Expectations point to gasoline and food costs pushing headline inflation higher in September. Distinguishing energy-driven increases from broader price pressures will therefore matter when interpreting the report.After 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time, investors will watch whether movements in the dollar and Treasury yields accompany Bitcoin’s initial reaction. The subsequent US stock market opening could offer further clues about the persistence of risk appetite.If the four indicators point in different directions, the initial price move may not last. As the report’s details become clearer, investors could reassess their Fed expectations and crypto positions.
Crypto this week began with Bitcoin trading at around $83,300 and Ethereum near $2,555. US inflation, comments from Fed officials, oil prices above $100 and Singapore’s stablecoin regulatory process could shape the market’s direction. The crypto calendar features Shardeum’s mainnet upgrade, the first listings of CENT, Sonic’s token burn and the final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF. Supply events involving seven tokens, including STRK, ARB, CRO and DBR, will also enter focus.US inflation could reshape Fed expectationsThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September consumer inflation data on Wednesday, October 14, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. A Reuters poll forecasts annual headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.5%.These figures are market forecasts rather than published results. A headline reading above expectations could strengthen the view that higher energy costs are passing through to consumer prices more rapidly.Producer prices, retail sales and weekly jobless claims will arrive on Thursday, October 15, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Retail sales increased by 1.2% in August, making the September report important for assessing whether consumer spending retained its momentum.Import and export prices will be released on Friday, October 16, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Industrial production will follow at 4:15 p.m.Futures markets assign an approximately 81% probability to the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting. Employment growth of only 29,000 in September weakened expectations for an October increase, while persistent inflation could bring December back into focus.Fed officials and the Beige Book enter focusFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will discuss the economic outlook in Istanbul on Tuesday, October 13, at 11:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Waller will participate in a separate session on artificial intelligence on October 14 at 10:45 a.m.Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will discuss regulatory and supervisory policy on October 14 at 12:40 p.m. Her speech in Bangkok falls on Friday, October 16, at 5:55 a.m. in Türkiye due to the time difference.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will begin their discussion in Bangkok on October 16 at 6:30 a.m. Türkiye time. The times appear on the Fed’s official calendar.The Fed will also publish its Beige Book on October 14 at 9:00 p.m. The report will provide updated assessments of prices, wages, employment and demand from businesses across the United States.Singapore reaches a stablecoin consultation deadlineThe Monetary Authority of Singapore will announce its monetary policy decision and macroeconomic assessment on October 14. All 10 economists in a Reuters poll expect MAS, which conducts policy through its exchange-rate band, to tighten its stance further.The week’s clearest crypto regulatory deadline arrives on October 16. MAS will close its consultation on legislative amendments to the Payment Services Act that would implement Singapore’s stablecoin framework.The proposal covers reserve value stability, capital requirements, redemption at par and disclosure obligations. MAS is also considering an interest ban for regulated stablecoins, stress-testing requirements and orderly recovery and wind-down plans.No new vote has been scheduled this week for the CLARITY Act in the United States. The Senate’s September 15 procedural vote failed to reach the required 60 votes, so it is excluded from the upcoming calendar.Oil remains above $100Brent crude started the week at approximately $103.30 a barrel, while US crude traded near $90.30. President Donald Trump’s announcement of an energy infrastructure ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine pushed prices lower, although Moscow has yet to confirm an agreement.Tanker incidents and intensifying Houthi attacks in the Middle East continue to support the supply-risk premium. Another rise in oil could affect crypto liquidity through inflation expectations and the Fed’s interest-rate outlook.Shardeum will upgrade its mainnet to v1.1.0Shardeum will activate its governance-approved v1.1.0 upgrade on Tuesday, October 13, at approximately 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The transition will begin at block 7,927,860, so the exact time may change with the pace of block production.The upgrade will synchronize the network with Cosmos EVM v0.6.3, apply security fixes and complete a state migration. Shardeum expects the network to pause for one to two hours and recommends that exchanges suspend SHM deposits and withdrawals at around 5:00 a.m.Unichain will migrate its testnet to OP Enterprise infrastructure on October 13. The chain ID, contracts and user balances will remain unchanged, while the mainnet migration is scheduled for October 29.Sonic’s final claim deadline for approximately 32.69 million S falls on October 15. Tokens left unclaimed after the deadline may be permanently burned, with the final amount depending on claims submitted before the cutoff.A Sky ecosystem governance package approved on October 8 will become executable on October 12 at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The package includes the launch of the stUSDS Keeper, treasury adjustments, reward changes and the burning of certain SKY tokens held in the Pause Proxy.CENT begins trading on three exchangesIncentiv’s CENT token will begin trading against USDT on Gate, KuCoin and MEXC on Monday, October 12, at noon Türkiye time. Gate’s HODLer event, which will distribute 34,482,759 CENT, ends at 11:00 a.m.Upbit will terminate all Ravencoin trading pairs on October 12 at 9:00 a.m. Open RVN orders will no longer be executed after the cutoff.October 14 will be the final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF, BWOW, on NYSE Arca. Investors who retain their shares will receive a cash payment based on the fund’s October 21 net asset value, with liquidation scheduled for October 22.CRO and ARB lead the week’s token unlocksCronos has the largest supply event of the week by dollar value. Approximately 1.17 billion CRO allocated to the strategic reserve will unlock at around 4:03 a.m. Türkiye time on October 17, representing roughly $72.7 million at the spot price recorded during preparation.Arbitrum will release approximately 92.65 million ARB on October 16 at 3:00 p.m. The tokens are allocated to the Arbitrum DAO Treasury and are worth approximately $18.2 million at the current price.Starknet will unlock 127 million STRK on October 15 at 3:00 a.m., worth approximately $13.6 million. At 3:00 p.m. on the same day, 55.56 million SEI allocated to the ecosystem reserve will create around $3.9 million in additional supply.deBridge will release 618 million DBR from its community and launch allocation at around 3:00 a.m. on October 17. The tokens have an estimated current value of $13.1 million.Approximately $7.4 million in STBL and $5.8 million in PENGU will unlock at around the same time. All dollar values were calculated using spot prices available during preparation, remain approximate and do not indicate that recipients will immediately sell their tokens.Four events and the earnings season will be monitoredTABConf, which focuses on Bitcoin development, will take place in Atlanta from October 12 to 15. The program covers Lightning, Bitcoin privacy, security and post-quantum cryptography.Paradigm Frontiers will run in San Francisco from October 12 to 14, while EDCON will take place in Kuala Lumpur on October 17–18. Ethereum.org’s current event calendar confirms both dates.Blockchain Africa Conference will be held in Johannesburg on October 15, focusing on stablecoins, tokenization and South Africa’s COFI regulatory framework. The IMF will also release its updated World Economic Outlook on October 13 during the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings.No confirmed earnings date falls within October 12–18 for Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood, Strategy or the major publicly traded crypto miners. Robinhood will report its third-quarter results on October 27, placing it outside this week’s calendar.The US earnings season beginning with JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs will still matter for broader risk appetite. TSMC is also expected to report a record quarter, supported by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.This week’s 35-event crypto calendarOctober 12, 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time: Upbit ends trading support for RVN.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on Gate.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on KuCoin.October 12, noon: CENT/USDT trading begins on MEXC.October 12, 5:00 p.m.: Sky’s governance package becomes executable.October 12–14: Paradigm Frontiers.October 12–15: TABConf 8.October 13, approximately 9:00 a.m.: Shardeum v1.1.0 mainnet upgrade.October 13: Unichain testnet migrates to OP Enterprise.October 13, 11:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller discusses the economic outlook.October 13: IMF World Economic Outlook report.October 14: Monetary Authority of Singapore policy decision.October 14, 10:45 a.m.: Waller participates in an artificial intelligence discussion.October 14, 12:40 p.m.: Michelle Bowman discusses regulation and supervision.October 14, 3:30 p.m.: US consumer inflation for September.October 14: Final trading day for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF.October 14, 9:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve Beige Book.October 15, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $13.6 million STRK unlock.October 15, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $3.9 million SEI supply release.October 15: Sonic’s final claim and burn threshold for 32.69 million S.October 15: Blockchain Africa Conference.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US producer prices for September.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US retail sales for September.October 15, 3:30 p.m.: US weekly jobless claims.October 16, 5:55 a.m.: Michelle Bowman’s Bangkok speech.October 16, 6:30 a.m.: Kevin Warsh and Kristalina Georgieva discussion.October 16: MAS stablecoin consultation deadline.October 16, 3:30 p.m.: US import and export prices.October 16, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $18.2 million ARB unlock.October 16, 4:15 p.m.: US industrial production and capacity utilization.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $13.1 million DBR unlock.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $7.4 million STBL unlock.October 17, approximately 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $5.8 million PENGU unlock.October 17, approximately 4:03 a.m.: Approximately $72.7 million CRO unlock.October 17–18: EDCON 2026 in Kuala Lumpur.Wednesday’s US consumer inflation report will be the week’s main price catalyst. MAS’s stablecoin rules, the Shardeum migration, the CENT launch and elevated oil prices will shape both crypto-specific developments and the broader market outlook.
Crypto this week began with Bitcoin trading at around $85,500 and Ether near $2,700. The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, the Reserve Bank of India’s interest-rate decision and oil prices above $100 form the core of the macroeconomic agenda.The crypto calendar features approximately $337.5 million in scheduled HYPE unlocks and $40.9 million in ENA unlocks. Binance, Bybit and Robinhood will discontinue several products, while three validator-dependent XRP Ledger upgrades could take effect.Fed minutes will shape expectations for OctoberThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16. All members supported the decision, which marked the US central bank’s first rate increase since 2023.Minutes from the meeting will be published on Wednesday, October 7, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Investors will examine how policymakers assessed energy-driven inflation risks and whether they disagreed over the timing of the next increase.US nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September. The result fell well below the Reuters poll forecast of around 90,000 and reduced the market-implied probability of an October rate increase to approximately 18%–20%.The US services outlook will come into focus with the ISM services PMI on Monday, October 5, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The index is expected to ease to 55 from 55.4 in August, with a reading above 50 indicating continued expansion.The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment index will follow on Friday, October 9, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The consensus forecast points to a decline from approximately 48.2 in September to 47.7.India is expected to raise interest ratesThe Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet from October 5 to 7. Its interest-rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, October 7, at 7:30 a.m. Türkiye time.Thirty-five of the 61 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the RBI to raise its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. Such a decision would mark the central bank’s first increase in nearly four years.High oil prices, broader inflationary pressure and weakness in the rupee support expectations for tighter policy. The decision could influence emerging-market currencies and global risk appetite.The European Central Bank will publish the account of its September 9–10 meeting on Thursday, October 8, at 2:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Investors will look for discussions about energy prices, growth risks and the direction of upcoming rate decisions.Canada’s September employment report will arrive on Friday, October 9, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. Statistics Canada says the report will reflect labour-market conditions during the week of September 13–19.Oil remains above $100Brent crude started the week at around $101.60 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded near $90.10. The G7’s decision to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel from emergency reserves has limited prices, although attacks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support a geopolitical risk premium.Middle Eastern crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on several days, even as authorities recorded at least seven new attacks on vessels in the region. Persistently high energy costs could encourage central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.Oil-driven inflation can affect Bitcoin through interest rates and government bond yields. Markets will monitor the speed of the G7 reserve release and the security of Gulf shipping routes.Russia’s crypto registration rules take effectThe Bank of Russia’s new registration regulations for the cryptocurrency market take effect on October 5. Crypto exchanges, digital depositories and operators of systems used to issue digital financial rights will need to join the relevant official registers.The rules establish qualification requirements for executives, the necessary application documents and the central bank’s registration process. Existing market participants will also have access to a simplified application route.In the US, the investment adviser and fund custody proposal announced last week does not have a new effective date within the coming seven days. The comment period for the SEC’s broader Regulation Crypto Assets proposal will remain open until October 20.Binance, Bybit and Robinhood will discontinue tradingBinance will automatically settle and delist the PROMPTUSDT, PUMPBTCUSDT and 1000000BOBUSDT perpetual contracts on Monday, October 5, at noon Türkiye time. The exchange will prevent users from opening new positions in these contracts from 11:30 a.m.Bybit will close deposits for SCOR and AGI on October 7 at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time. Trading in the SCOR/USDT and AGI/USDT spot pairs, along with Convert support, will end on October 8 at 11:00 a.m.Robinhood Europe will disable sales of BERA, EOS, PAXG and TIA on Friday, October 9, at 10:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The platform will automatically sell remaining BERA and TIA balances at market prices because withdrawals are unavailable for these assets.EOS and PAXG withdrawals will remain available until October 14, placing the next stage of their delisting process outside this weekly calendar. No major new spot listing or high-profile token launch had been confirmed at the time of preparation.Three XRP Ledger upgrades could activateThe XRP Ledger’s PermissionDelegationV1_1 amendment could activate on Friday, October 9, at approximately 12:25 a.m. Türkiye time, provided validator support remains above the required threshold. The feature will let accounts delegate limited permissions without sharing the private keys controlling their funds.The projected activation time for fixBatchV1_2 is 5:12 p.m. on the same day. Servers that fail to upgrade to the security-focused xrpld 3.4.1 release could become amendment-blocked and lose synchronisation with the network.BatchV1_1 is expected to activate at around 5:46 p.m. Türkiye time. The feature will allow users to bundle and submit up to eight transactions together, enabling use cases such as atomic swaps.All three dates depend on validator support remaining above 80% for the full required period. If support falls to or below the threshold, the 14-day countdown will restart and the activation dates will change.HYPE and ENA supply will expandCurrent Tokenomist data show that HYPE and ENA account for most of the week’s major one-time token unlocks. All dollar values are approximate because they were calculated using spot prices available during preparation.Ethena will release approximately 172.7 million ENA to core contributors on October 5. At an ENA price of around $0.237, the unlock is worth approximately $40.9 million and represents about 1.88% of the reported supply measure.Hyperliquid’s scheduled HYPE unlock for core contributors on October 6 is worth approximately $337.5 million. A spot price near $90 puts the scheduled amount at around 3.75 million HYPE.Tokenomist displays a mismatch between the scheduled unlock and the broader committed vesting figure for the same event. This calendar uses the narrower $337.5 million scheduled value, while the amount that becomes claimable or moves on-chain could differ.Aerodrome will release approximately $3.53 million in AERO on October 8. Aptos’s roughly $9.13 million APT unlock on October 11 will be joined by approximately $4.29 million in PEAQ and $2.7 million in IO.The PEAQ unlock stands out with a reported ratio of 3.73%. The io.net schedule shows that approximately 15.88 million IO will become available on October 11.Applied Digital will report earningsApplied Digital, which has shifted from blockchain workloads toward artificial intelligence and high-performance data-centre infrastructure, will report its fiscal first-quarter results on October 7. The conference call will begin at midnight on Thursday, October 8, in Türkiye because of the time difference.The report covers the fiscal quarter that ended on August 31. Investors will monitor data-centre rental income, energy expenses, newly operational capacity and the company’s capital requirements.TOKEN2049 begins in SingaporeTOKEN2049 Singapore will take place at Marina Bay Sands on October 7–8. The programme will focus on crypto infrastructure, stablecoins, institutional capital, tokenisation and regulatory developments across Asia.The broader TOKEN2049 Week programme runs from October 5 to 11. CoinFerenceX will take place on October 5–6, Solana Summit Singapore on October 6 and RWA Summit Singapore on October 9.ETH Lagos will hold its conference and parallel hackathon from October 8 to 10. The event will bring together Ethereum developers and Web3 projects from across Africa.No separate binding, high-impact DAO vote with a confirmed deadline during the week was identified. Gitcoin’s proposal to lower the participation threshold for Snapshot votes from 2.5 million GTC to 1.5 million GTC remains at the forum discussion stage.This week’s 30-event crypto calendarAll times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.October 5: Russia’s registration rules for crypto-market entities take effect.October 5: Approximately $40.9 million in ENA unlocks.October 5, noon: Binance delists three perpetual contracts.October 5, 5:00 p.m.: US ISM services PMI.October 5–6: CoinFerenceX Singapore.October 6: Approximately $337.5 million in scheduled HYPE unlocks.October 6: Solana Summit Singapore.October 6, noon: Euro-area retail sales for August.October 6, 3:30 p.m.: US trade balance for August.October 7, 1:00 a.m.: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks.October 7, 7:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of India interest-rate decision.October 7, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit closes SCOR and AGI deposits.October 7–8: TOKEN2049 Singapore.October 7, 9:00 p.m.: Minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC meeting.October 8, midnight: Applied Digital earnings conference call.October 8: Approximately $3.53 million in AERO unlocks.October 8, 11:00 a.m.: Bybit ends SCOR and AGI spot trading.October 8, 2:30 p.m.: ECB minutes from its September meeting.October 8, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.October 8–10: ETH Lagos conference and hackathon.October 9, approximately 12:25 a.m.: XRP Ledger PermissionDelegationV1_1 activation.October 9, 3:30 p.m.: Canada’s September employment report.October 9, 5:00 p.m.: Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.October 9, approximately 5:12 p.m.: XRP Ledger fixBatchV1_2 activation.October 9, approximately 5:46 p.m.: XRP Ledger BatchV1_1 activation.October 9, 10:00 p.m.: Robinhood disables sales of BERA, EOS, PAXG and TIA.October 9: RWA Summit Singapore.October 11: Approximately $9.13 million in APT unlocks.October 11: Approximately $4.29 million in PEAQ unlocks.October 11: Approximately $2.7 million in IO unlocks.The scheduled HYPE release represents the week’s largest crypto-specific supply risk by dollar value. Fed minutes, the RBI’s decision, services-sector data and oil prices above $100 could have a greater influence on the direction of the wider market.
Bitcoin climbed toward $86,000 following the release of US inflation data. Below-forecast core PCE figures lowered expectations for another Fed interest rate hike.According to market data, Bitcoin gained approximately 2.4% following the announcement, trading near $86,000. However, it later retreated to just above $84,000, surrendering part of its initial gains. Consequently, US economic releases took center stage in the crypto market’s macroeconomic outlook. Investors assessed the inflation surprise alongside growth and employment figures.Bitcoin rises following PCE dataThe US core PCE price index increased 0.2% monthly in August. Its annual increase reached 3%.Forecasts had pointed to increases of 0.3% monthly and 3.3% annually. Therefore, both readings came in below market expectations.Meanwhile, the headline PCE price index rose 0.3% from the previous month. The Fed closely monitors PCE measures when assessing price pressures.Gains in traditional markets accompanied Bitcoin’s advance following the release. However, available data cannot attribute Bitcoin’s entire move to a single announcement.Alongside interest rate expectations, institutional demand and investor positioning also influence crypto prices. Therefore, the inflation release represented one important factor shaping the day’s trading.Shifting Fed expectations support cryptoFollowing the releases, markets priced roughly a 37% probability of an October Fed rate hike. Consequently, expectations for unchanged interest rates gained greater weight.The Fed’s September rate hike had increased the importance of incoming data. Investors now seek clarity on the pace of further tightening.Falling expectations for additional rate hikes can create more favorable conditions for risk assets. Higher interest rates can encourage investors to favor interest-bearing investments.Conversely, easing tightening pressure can support demand for assets such as Bitcoin. However, this relationship does not produce equally strong price movements after every economic release.Moreover, a potential October pause does not imply an imminent interest rate cut. Markets currently continue to adjust their expectations for the timing of another increase.Inflation revisions draw attentionChanges to July’s figures also matter when assessing August’s results. The Bureau of Economic Analysis lowered July’s annual core PCE increase from 3.3% to 3%.Consequently, July and August show identical annual increases in the updated series. August’s main surprise came from undershooting the market’s 3.3% forecast.This distinction separates inflation’s month-to-month trajectory from its performance against expectations. Both the level and persistence of inflation will matter in subsequent Fed assessments.Economic strength keeps the rate debate aliveThe US economy recorded annualized growth of 2.2% in the second quarter. The previous estimate had indicated growth of 1.5%.Additionally, ADP reported that private employers added 90,000 jobs in September. This exceeded August’s revised increase of 36,000.Real personal spending also rose 0.6% monthly in August. The result showed that consumption remained resilient despite elevated costs.Strong growth can ease concerns about an economic slowdown. However, robust demand could also encourage the Fed to remain cautious about inflation.Crypto investors will next focus on employment data and comments from Fed officials. Subsequent trading will reveal whether Bitcoin can retain its remaining gains.
Bitcoin started the week of September 28-October 4 at around $82,900. Ether was trading near $2,650 at the time of writing, while rising oil prices and expectations of further rate increases limited risk appetite. The main events of the week will be the US PCE inflation report and Friday’s employment data. On the crypto calendar, votes that could determine Balancer’s future, the Base and Hedera upgrades, Router Protocol’s shutdown and five token unlocks worth approximately $307 million stand out.PCE and jobs data will test Fed expectationsThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the August personal income and outlays report on Wednesday, September 30, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will also include headline and core PCE inflation, closely watched by the Federal Reserve.Annual core PCE inflation stood at 3.3% in July. The monthly price change in the August report will indicate how far higher oil costs have spread into core goods and services.The third estimate of second-quarter economic growth will also arrive on September 30 at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The BEA will release corporate profit and industry-level growth figures at the same time, meaning the initial market reaction may extend beyond the headline GDP number.The first major employment indicator will be the August JOLTS report on Tuesday, September 29, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. Job openings and the quits rate will provide new signals about labor demand.The ADP private-sector employment report will be published on Wednesday, September 30, at 3:15 p.m. Türkiye time. ADP and the official payroll report use different methodologies, so the two figures may not necessarily move in the same direction.The strongest market reaction of the week could form around the US employment report on Friday, October 2, at 3:30 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will cover September nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and wage growth.A recent Reuters poll forecasts an increase of 100,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. These figures are market expectations; the official results will be published on Friday.Fed officials will speak after the rate increaseThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Futures markets currently assign an approximately 65% probability to another increase at the October meeting.Michael Barr will discuss the economic outlook on Tuesday, September 29, at 7:40 p.m. Türkiye time. Christopher Waller will speak about payment systems at the Sibos conference in Miami at 10:00 p.m. the same day.Philip Jefferson’s speech on Thursday, October 1, at 8:30 p.m. Türkiye time will focus directly on the US economy and monetary policy. The Fed’s official calendar also includes separate appearances by Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook covering regulation, economic data and central banking.Investors will focus on how officials balance inflation and employment risks. A significant surprise in the PCE or payroll data could increase the market impact of these speeches.Another rate increase is expected in AustraliaThe Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its policy decision on Tuesday, September 29, at 7:30 a.m. Türkiye time. The governor’s press conference will begin at 8:30 a.m.Market pricing indicates an approximately 95% probability that the cash rate will increase by 25 basis points to 4.60%. Core inflation reaching 3.6% and high energy costs underpin expectations for another increase.China’s official September PMI results will arrive on Wednesday, September 30, at 4:30 a.m. Türkiye time. Investors will watch whether the manufacturing index, which stood at 49.8 in August, moves above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction.The Bank of Japan will publish its Tankan corporate survey and a summary of opinions from its September meeting on Thursday, October 1, at 2:50 a.m. Türkiye time. After the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its latest meeting, companies’ price and wage expectations will matter for yen-funded trades.The euro area’s flash September inflation report will be released on Friday, October 2, at noon Türkiye time. Final headline inflation stood at 3.2% in August, and another increase could affect expectations for the ECB’s policy path.Oil approaches $107 againBrent crude started the week at around $106–$107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded in the $93–$94 range. The absence of an agreement in talks between the United States and Iran, together with Middle East shipping risks, continues to support energy prices.Persistently high oil prices could strengthen inflation pressures through transportation, production and food costs. Bitcoin and altcoins could face tighter dollar liquidity if this outlook causes the Fed, RBA and ECB to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.Balancer’s future goes to a voteThe Balancer community will vote until September 29 on BIP-928, which proposes an orderly wind-down of the protocol. The plan would end new business development, place eligible pools into withdrawal-only mode on October 30 and distribute the remaining treasury assets to BAL holders.The proposal includes two “yes” options that differ over the share allocated to tetuBAL assets. A separate proposal, BIP-929, presents a restructuring option for the Balancer brand and infrastructure, making the votes more significant than a routine technical parameter change.Horizen’s Special Council election will end on Wednesday, September 30, at 8:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The elected members will take part in the ecosystem’s governance and oversight processes.Hedera and Base prepare network upgradesHedera will upgrade its mainnet to version 0.77.2 on Tuesday, September 29, between 8:00 p.m. and 8:40 p.m. Türkiye time. The project’s status page warns that brief disruptions may occur during the upgrade.Base node operators must move their clients to version 1.4.2 before the Cobalt upgrade on Wednesday, September 30, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The release includes support for Proofs v2 snapshots and fixes for issues identified in the previous version.Router Protocol will cease operations on the same day and burn 303,333,198 ROUTE. The amount represents approximately 30% of the token’s maximum supply, and the team said its commercialization, licensing and acquisition efforts had failed to produce a viable outcome.Some calendars previously listed the XRPL BatchV1_1 activation for September 29. Its support process was reset, pushing activation back to October 9 at the earliest.Solana has also not confirmed a mainnet date for Alpenglow. Neither development is therefore included among the week’s 29 events.Upbit and Bithumb will end SNX tradingUpbit and Bithumb will terminate trading support for Synthetix on Monday, September 28, at 9:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchanges said the information requested from the foundation had failed to resolve their investor-protection concerns.Bitget postponed the delisting of FHE, DRIFT, RVV and DOG, previously scheduled for September 30, following a security incident. The decision is not included in the upcoming calendar because the exchange has not announced a new date.No high-profile spot listing or major token launch has been confirmed on leading exchanges this week. Authorities have also not announced a major crypto law taking effect or a new congressional digital asset vote with a confirmed date.Five token unlocks will add approximately $307 million in supplyThe week’s largest proportional token unlock will take place in 2Z. A total of 1.625 billion tokens will be released on October 2, worth approximately $95.4 million at spot prices at the time of writing.The amount equals approximately 46.4% of the project’s reported market capitalization.Canton Network will make 833.33 million community-allocated CC available on October 1. The unlock is worth approximately $94.7 million.Ethena will unlock 275.02 million ENA on the same day. The tokens, worth approximately $73.7 million, are allocated to the team, private investors, the community and the foundation.Sui’s October 3 unlock will release 23.38 million SUI worth approximately $27.9 million. Falcon Finance will also unlock 112.52 million FF on September 29, valued at around $15.3 million.The five unlocks have a combined estimated value of approximately $307 million. Their dollar values will fluctuate with spot prices and should therefore be treated as approximate figures.Conferences begin in Miami, New York and SeoulThe Bitcoin Treasuries Conference will focus on corporate Bitcoin reserve strategies in New York on September 28. The program begins at 4:00 p.m. Türkiye time and will cover balance-sheet management, custody, financing and investor communications.Sibos will take place in Miami from September 28 to October 1. The event will cover payments, tokenization and artificial intelligence in finance, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller among the speakers.The main Korea Blockchain Week conference will be held in Seoul from September 30 to October 1. The program will focus on real-world asset tokenization, the integration of AI and blockchain, and layer-1 and layer-2 infrastructure.No major earnings release from a publicly traded crypto company has been confirmed for the week. The Bitcoin Treasuries Conference and Sibos will therefore carry more weight for tracking how financial companies approach digital assets.This week’s 29-event crypto calendarAll times are Türkiye time, UTC+3.September 28, 9:00 a.m.: Upbit and Bithumb end trading support for SNX.September 28, 3:15 p.m.: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks about banking regulation.September 28, 4:00 p.m.: Bitcoin Treasuries Conference begins.September 28–October 1: Sibos takes place in Miami.September 29, 7:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision; press conference at 8:30 a.m.September 29: Approximately $15.3 million in FF unlocks.September 29, 5:00 p.m.: US JOLTS job openings for August.September 29, 7:40 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks about the economic outlook.September 29, 8:00–8:40 p.m.: Hedera v0.77.2 mainnet upgrade.September 29, 10:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks about payment systems.September 29: Voting ends on Balancer proposals BIP-928 and BIP-929.September 30, 4:30 a.m.: China’s official September PMI data.September 30, 3:15 p.m.: US ADP private-sector employment report.September 30, 3:30 p.m.: US PCE inflation for August.September 30, 3:30 p.m.: Third estimate of US second-quarter GDP and corporate profits.September 30, 8:00 p.m.: Horizen Special Council election ends.September 30, 9:00 p.m.: Final upgrade deadline for Base Cobalt.September 30: Router Protocol ceases operations and burns ROUTE.September 30–October 1: Korea Blockchain Week’s main conference.October 1, 2:50 a.m.: BOJ Tankan survey and summary of opinions from the September meeting.October 1: Approximately $94.7 million in CC unlocks.October 1: Approximately $73.7 million in ENA unlocks.October 1, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.October 1, 5:00 p.m.: US ISM manufacturing PMI for September.October 1, 8:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks about monetary policy.October 2, noon: Euro-area flash inflation for September.October 2, 3:30 p.m.: US September employment, unemployment and wage data.October 2: Approximately $95.4 million in 2Z unlocks.October 3: Approximately $27.9 million in SUI unlocks.The US employment report and PCE inflation could determine the broader direction of the crypto market this week. Oil remaining above $100, the expected RBA rate increase and messages from Fed officials could also increase volatility around Bitcoin’s $83,000 price level.
Bitcoin started the week of September 21–27 at approximately $83,600. Ether traded near $2,665 at the time of writing as markets assessed the future path of interest rates following last week’s decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. The crypto calendar features Plasma’s approximately $167.6 million XPL unlock, Binance’s removal of USDP and Terra’s network upgrade. Flash PMI reports, speeches from Fed officials and US durable goods orders will lead the macroeconomic agenda.Fed officials will speak after the rate increaseThe Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The policy statement described economic activity as solid and inflation as still elevated, while all members voted in favor of the increase.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak about discount window modernization and the functioning of the US Treasury market on Tuesday, September 22, at 5:20 p.m. Türkiye time. Michael Barr will discuss the housing market on Wednesday, September 23, at 5:05 p.m.The Fed’s official calendar also includes the Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Thursday, September 24, at 9:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The report will show how collateral, leverage and credit conditions have changed for major institutions that finance securities transactions.Markets currently assign an approximately 55% probability to another rate increase in October. Comments about inflation, oil prices and the next meeting could affect Bitcoin through movements in the dollar and Treasury yields.PCE inflation will not be released this weekSome economic calendars list US personal consumption expenditures inflation and gross domestic product data for this week. The latest schedule from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the August PCE report and the third estimate of second-quarter growth will arrive on September 30.Neither PCE nor GDP data belong on the September 21–27 calendar. This week’s US releases instead center on new home sales, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.August new home sales will arrive on Thursday, September 24, at 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time. The Census Bureau calendar schedules durable goods orders for Friday, September 25, at 3:30 p.m.The University of Michigan will publish its final September consumer sentiment reading at 5:00 p.m. on September 25. The preliminary index fell from 51.7 to 47.8, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%.Flash PMI data will provide a view of global growthSeptember flash purchasing managers’ indexes will be released on Wednesday, September 23. The euro-area composite PMI will arrive at 11:00 a.m. Türkiye time, followed by the UK data at 11:30 a.m. and the US manufacturing and services indexes at 4:45 p.m.Readings above 50 would indicate an expansion in private-sector activity. Strong growth accompanied by rising input prices could support expectations that central banks will continue raising interest rates.Price indicators within the services reports will carry particular importance for crypto markets. The Fed continued to characterize inflation as elevated last week, making input costs and selling prices almost as significant as the headline PMI readings.Oil and the US-China meeting enter focusBrent crude started the week above $100 as conflict in the Middle East and shipping risks continued to affect the energy market. High oil prices are maintaining pressure on the currencies and inflation outlooks of energy-importing countries.The Bangladeshi government increased fuel prices by as much as 17.4% from September 21 in response to higher global oil and shipping costs. The decision provides a current example of how the energy shock is passing through to consumer prices.US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on September 24. Comments on trade, artificial intelligence, supply chains and the Middle East could influence risk appetite and the direction of the dollar.Terra will upgrade its network todayTerra will activate a network upgrade at block height 22,942,000 on Monday, September 21. The network is expected to reach the block at approximately 6:00 p.m. Türkiye time, although the exact time may change depending on block production.Binance said it would temporarily suspend LUNA deposits and withdrawals from 5:00 p.m. Spot trading will remain available, while transfers will resume after the exchange determines that the network is stable.The exchange will also launch a USDBRLUSDT perpetual contract tracking the US dollar-Brazilian real exchange rate at 5:00 p.m. The USDT-settled product will trade around the clock and offer leverage of up to 100 times.Binance will end USDP tradingBinance will cease all spot trading in Pax Dollar on Thursday, September 24, at 6:00 a.m. Türkiye time. The exchange will cancel open orders and terminate the related trading-bot services at the same time.USDP deposits will no longer be credited to user accounts after 6:00 a.m. on September 25. Withdrawals will remain available until 6:00 a.m. on November 24.The decision does not end the Paxos-issued token or USDP trading on other exchanges. Its impact is limited to Binance’s spot market and related products that support USDP.The XPL unlock exceeds $167 millionTokenomist estimates that cliff unlocks scheduled for the next seven days have a combined value of approximately $227.17 million. Plasma’s September 25 unlock accounts for roughly $167.6 million of that total.The XPL release equals approximately 67.1% of the project’s reported market capitalization. The tokens belong to the ecosystem and growth allocation, making XPL the asset with the week’s highest dilution risk.Humanity Protocol will release approximately $18.97 million in H tokens to early contributors on the same day. The amount equals around 13.1% of its reported market capitalization.SoSoValue’s September 24 unlock has an estimated value of $6.83 million, equivalent to 6.9% of its market capitalization. STBL will release approximately $5.41 million from its adviser allocation on September 26, representing around 42.7% of its reported market capitalization.Smaller releases include approximately $2.52 million in ID, $3.83 million in SOON, $1.88 million in MET and $2.7 million in AERO.ETHTokyo continues this weekETHTokyo, which began on September 19, will continue through September 27. The event brings together Ethereum developers, security researchers, infrastructure projects and members of Japan’s Web3 community.The US Senate’s procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the required 60-vote threshold on September 15. No new vote has been scheduled, so the proposal does not appear among this week’s upcoming events.The SEC announced a five-year exemption for tokenized stock trading on September 17. Although the decision is a completed development, it creates a new regulatory framework that could affect the tokenized securities plans of companies such as Coinbase and Robinhood.This week’s 24-event crypto calendarSeptember 21, 5:00 p.m. Türkiye time: Binance suspends Terra deposits and withdrawals.September 21, approximately 6:00 p.m.: Terra network upgrade.September 21, 5:00 p.m.: Binance launches the USDBRLUSDT perpetual contract.September 21–27: The remaining ETHTokyo program continues.September 22, approximately 3:00 a.m.: ID unlock worth around $2.52 million.September 22, 5:20 p.m.: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.September 23, 11:00 a.m.: Euro-area flash PMI data for September.September 23, 11:30 a.m.: UK flash PMI data for September.September 23, approximately 11:30 a.m.: SOON unlock worth around $3.83 million.September 23, approximately 4:00 p.m.: MET unlock worth around $1.88 million.September 23, 4:45 p.m.: US flash PMI data for September.September 23, 5:05 p.m.: Speech by Fed Governor Michael Barr.September 24, approximately 3:00 a.m.: AERO unlock worth around $2.7 million.September 24, 5:00 a.m.: USDP removed from Binance Convert.September 24, 6:00 a.m.: Binance ends USDP spot trading.September 24: SOSO unlock worth around $6.83 million.September 24, 3:30 p.m.: US initial jobless claims.September 24, 5:00 p.m.: US new home sales for August.September 24, 9:00 p.m.: Fed credit conditions survey.September 24: Trump-Xi meeting.September 25: XPL unlock worth around $167.6 million.September 25: H unlock worth around $18.97 million.September 25, 3:30 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.: US durable goods orders and final consumer sentiment.September 26: STBL unlock worth around $5.41 million.The XPL unlock represents the week’s strongest crypto-specific price risk because of its size. The broader market will focus on flash PMI data, Fed officials’ post-meeting messages, oil prices above $100 and announcements from the US-China meeting.
The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on Iranian cryptocurrency exchange BitBank. The department alleged that the platform transferred payments collected for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and facilitated Bitcoin transfers to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).The decision announced on September 17 also covers BitBank’s software developer and three individuals. US authorities link the exchange to a digital asset network controlled by previously sanctioned Iranian businessman Babak Zanjani.Bitcoin connection to Hormuz paymentsThe Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) alleges that Zanjani used BitBank to facilitate transfers of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin between June and July. The agency says those assets reached the Revolutionary Guards.The statement also identifies Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority as an organization that has used BitBank since June. According to US authorities, it transferred payments collected from ships to the Iranian government through the exchange.The Hormuz connection dates back to OFAC’s July 29 decision. At the time, the agency added HormuzSafe and Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Company to its sanctions list.The Treasury alleges that the arrangement required commercial vessels to purchase mandatory maritime insurance to pass through the strait. According to the department, the coverage claimed to protect against risks such as vessel seizures, while some payments took place in digital assets.Washington describes the arrangement as a mechanism for Iran to collect revenue from maritime shipping. July’s sanctions focused on the organizations providing insurance services, while the latest decision targets the crypto infrastructure allegedly used to transfer the payments.Software developer and three individuals also targetedOFAC also sanctioned BitBank’s developer, Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company. Hossein Ali Zaker Hossein, Mohammad Mahdi Zaker Hossein and Seyed Adel Heidari were added to the sanctions list as well.The department links these individuals to Zanjani’s corporate network. The designations rely on Executive Order 13902, which provides sanctions authority covering various sectors of Iran’s economy.Zanjani has faced US sanctions before. According to Reuters, Washington sanctioned him and digital asset companies Zedcex and Zedxion in January.In July, the US targeted nine additional firms, including companies based in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Reuters reports that Zanjani, who received a death sentence in Iran in 2016 for embezzlement, had his sentence commuted in 2024 and re-emerged in 2025 as a backer of government-linked economic projects.Which transactions do the sanctions affect?The decision blocks the designated individuals’ and entities’ property in the United States or under the possession or control of US persons. Unless an exemption or OFAC authorization applies, US persons are generally prohibited from conducting transactions involving that property.Entities owned 50% or more, individually or collectively, by blocked persons are also subject to blocking. The department warns that foreign financial institutions facilitating certain transactions could also face sanctions.The BitBank decision forms part of “Operation Economic Outcast,” a campaign launched on August 24. The US administration says the campaign aims to restrict Iran’s revenue sources linked to oil trading, financial intermediaries and international companies.At the campaign’s launch, the department announced plans to increase pressure on foreign actors facilitating Iran-related activities. The inclusion of BitBank’s software developer alongside the exchange shows that companies supporting crypto services also fall within the scope of this approach.
The crypto market is focused on the Fed rate decision due Wednesday, September 16. Investors expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly three years. The direction of Bitcoin and altcoins will also depend on what the Fed says about the months ahead.At its July meeting, the Fed kept its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Nine members supported the decision, while three favored a 25-basis-point increase. Expectations of a rate hike have strengthened ahead of the September meeting.CME FedWatch data, based on futures prices, shows that markets view a 25-basis-point increase as the most likely outcome. Such a move would lift the policy rate to 3.75%–4.00%. These probabilities can change during trading, so the latest pricing should be checked before the decision.Why does the Fed rate decision matter for crypto?U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4% year over year in August, with a monthly increase of 0.4%. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.Higher interest rates can encourage investors to favor assets that offer yields and carry relatively lower risk. This could limit the capital flowing into Bitcoin, which does not generate interest income. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could also weigh on risk appetite across the crypto market.Still, an expected rate hike does not necessarily mean prices will fall. Markets may have already priced in much of a 25-basis-point increase. Investors would then turn their attention to whether the Fed plans further hikes.What are the scenarios for Bitcoin and altcoins?If the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points but takes a cautious approach to future moves, the initial crypto market reaction could be volatile. The widely expected hike would carry less surprise. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the press conference could then set the direction.If the Fed signals further tightening to combat inflation, risk assets could come under pressure. Such a message could support Treasury yields and the dollar. Altcoins may move more sharply because they are sensitive to liquidity and investors’ willingness to take risks.Keeping rates unchanged could initially support crypto assets. However, any gains might fade if the Fed describes the decision as a temporary pause. A larger-than-expected rate hike would be a more pronounced negative surprise for the market.According to the official schedule, the decision will be announced at 9:00 p.m. Turkish time. Warsh’s press conference will begin at 9:30 p.m. The Fed will also publish updated economic projections. The projected path for interest rates could matter as much as the decision itself for Bitcoin and altcoins.At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,000.
Bitcoin started the week of September 14–20 at around $77,500. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, a crypto vote in the US Senate and oil prices above $100 could increase market volatility. The crypto calendar also features a Pi Network upgrade, delistings by South Korean exchanges and a TRUMP token unlock worth approximately $57 million. Chainflip is preparing to restart its network following a 736,000 USDT exploit over the weekend.Fed interest rate decision and projections are comingThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting will begin on Tuesday, September 15. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and updated economic projections on Wednesday, September 16, at 9:00 p.m. Turkey time. The chair’s press conference will begin at 9:30 p.m.The Fed’s official calendar confirms the announcement times for the current policy rate of 3.50%–3.75%. Futures markets assign a probability of more than 85% to a 25-basis-point increase. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have also revised their expectations toward a rate hike.US consumer inflation, released last week, reached 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually. Inflationary pressure, combined with strong employment data, strengthened expectations that the Fed could resume monetary tightening.Markets will also monitor the dot plot and economic forecasts for 2026–2028. Officials’ projections for further rate increases this year could influence Bitcoin through movements in the dollar and Treasury yields.US retail sales data for August will arrive on September 16 at 3:30 p.m. Turkey time. Import price data, scheduled for the same time, will offer further information about how energy costs are feeding into domestic inflation.BoE and BOJ decisions fall in the same weekThe Bank of England will publish its interest rate decision on Thursday, September 17, at 2:00 p.m. Turkey time. All 65 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the BoE to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%.The United Kingdom will announce August inflation data one day before the decision. According to the Office for National Statistics calendar, the figures will arrive on September 16 at 9:00 a.m. Turkey time. Annual inflation stood at 2.9% in July.The UK labor market report will be released on Tuesday, September 15, at 9:00 a.m. It will include new data on unemployment, wage growth, job vacancies and payroll employment.The Bank of Japan will meet on September 17–18. A Reuters poll indicates strong expectations that the central bank will raise its current 1% policy rate by 25 basis points.The decision is expected on the morning of Friday, September 18. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference will begin at 9:30 a.m. Turkey time.The meeting carries additional significance for crypto markets. A rate hike could strengthen the yen and trigger the unwinding of leveraged positions financed through the Japanese currency.CLARITY Act heads for a critical Senate voteThe US Senate is preparing to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. The legislation aims to define the division of responsibilities within the digital asset market. It needs support from 60 senators before debate can formally begin.The bill would reorganize regulatory authority over crypto assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It would also establish federal rules for exchanges, brokers, custodians and token issuers.The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill in May by a vote of 15–9. According to Reuters, objections involving stablecoin interest payments and crypto companies’ access to banking services could make the 60-vote threshold difficult to reach.Passing the procedural vote would not amount to final approval. If the motion succeeds, the Senate would still need to consider amendments and vote on the full legislative text.The House Ways and Means Committee could also discuss the taxation of staking and mining rewards on September 16. Wash-sale rules for digital assets may form another part of the discussion.However, the committee has not published a confirmed time on its official calendar. Therefore, the potential hearing is not included in this week’s verified schedule.Oil prices become a liquidity risk againBrent crude started the week near $107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $102. Attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and risks to regional shipments continue to support prices.Oil prices remaining at these levels could fuel global inflation through higher fuel and transportation costs. The Fed, BoE and BOJ will all announce decisions this week, increasing the potential impact of energy-driven inflation on digital assets.Attacks on Russian refineries are also reducing diesel production and intensifying pressure on energy markets. US diesel prices rising above $6 per gallon create another risk for corporate costs and consumer inflation.Upbit, Bithumb and Bitget plan delistingsUpbit and Bithumb will end trading support for Storj, JasmyCoin and ThunderCore on Monday, September 14, at 9:00 a.m. Turkey time. The exchanges will cancel open orders for STORJ, JASMY and TT, while withdrawals will remain available until October 14.Bitget’s first change will affect Classic Account users on September 17. The exchange will stop allowing new positions in NEARUSD, AVAXUSD, ADAUSD, LINKUSD, DOGEUSD, SOLUSD, XRPUSD, ETHUSD and BTCUSD coin-margined perpetual contracts after 7:00 a.m.Trading in these contracts will end completely at 10:00 a.m. Bitget’s official announcement indicates that contracts under Unified Accounts will remain unaffected.The exchange will also delist the CAMP/USDT, RHEA/USDT, ORBS/USDT and TURBO/USDT spot pairs on Friday, September 18, at 1:00 p.m. Withdrawals will remain available until December 18 at 1:00 p.m.No major spot listing or high-profile token launch has been confirmed for this week. Therefore, delisting decisions and supply developments involving existing tokens will carry greater weight.Pi Network targets Protocol 27 upgradePi Network has set September 15 as the target date for upgrading its mainnet to Protocol 27. According to the project’s announcement, the update will introduce more flexible and secure authentication features for smart contracts.The team has not announced an exact activation time. The target date also depends on network readiness. Exchanges could temporarily suspend PI deposits and withdrawals during the upgrade.Ethereum developers will hold an All Core Developers Consensus call on September 17 at 5:00 p.m. Turkey time. The meeting will cover consensus-layer development and preparations for the Glamsterdam upgrade. However, the call itself does not represent a mainnet upgrade.Chainflip restart expected after exploitChainflip started the week with operations suspended following an exploit involving its USDT integration on TRON. The attacker abused a vulnerability in transaction memo processing to withdraw 736,442 USDT through six unauthorized payments.The project said its other vaults were unaffected and promised to compensate affected users. Incomplete user transactions worth approximately 115,654 USDT remain in the vault until the network restarts.Chainflip initially said the restart would not happen before Monday. However, it has not provided an exact time.According to the incident report, the project could release a new software version, compensation details and a technical review this week.No separate binding, high-impact DAO vote with a confirmed deadline appears on the calendar. Chainflip’s operational decisions and the CLARITY Act process represent the week’s main governance and regulatory developments.TRUMP and ZRO unlocks carry significant valueOfficial Trump will conduct the week’s largest token unlock by dollar value. A total of 28.7 million TRUMP will enter circulation on September 18. Based on the morning spot price, the tokens are worth approximately $57.1 million.The unlock represents about 2.9% of the total token supply. Its share of the circulating market capitalization is higher, increasing the risk of short-term dilution.LayerZero will unlock 25.71 million ZRO on September 20. The tokens are worth approximately $26.9 million at the current price and represent around 4.2% of the circulating supply.Bedrock will release 40.63 million BR on the same day. The unlock is worth approximately $15 million and equals nearly 18.7% of the circulating supply. This makes it one of the week’s most significant events in proportional terms.Arbitrum’s unlock of 92.65 million ARB will occur on September 16 at 4:00 p.m. Turkey time. The tokens currently have a combined value of around $12.7 million.Additional supply entering the market will include approximately $8.4 million in YZY, $5.4 million in KAITO, $3.6 million in STRK and $2.5 million in SEI. LISTA will also release tokens worth around $2.6 million on September 20.CoinShares results and two conferences on watchCoinShares will publish its financial results for the six months ended June 30 on September 14. Management’s conference call will begin at 3:30 p.m. Turkey time.Digital asset prices, fund flows and assets under management will be among the report’s main areas of interest.Bitcoin miner Bitdeer will also attend the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference on September 14. Its presentation could provide updates on mining capacity, energy infrastructure and investments in artificial intelligence data centers.The European Blockchain Convention will take place in Barcelona on September 16–17. Its program focuses on institutional crypto adoption, tokenization, stablecoins, custody services and European regulation.ETHTokyo Week will begin on Saturday, September 19, and continue until September 27. The program will bring Ethereum developers, security researchers and Web3 projects together in Tokyo.This week’s 30-event crypto calendarSeptember 14: CoinShares publishes its first-half 2026 results.September 14: Bitdeer attends the H.C. Wainwright conference.September 14, 9:00 a.m.: Upbit and Bithumb end STORJ, JASMY and TT trading.September 14–15: Remaining sessions of the ETHTaipei program.September 15, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $3.6 million STRK token unlock.September 15, 6:00 a.m.: Approximately $8.4 million YZY token unlock.September 15, 9:00 a.m.: UK labor market report.September 15, 3:00 p.m.: Approximately $2.5 million SEI token unlock.September 15: Target date for the Pi Network Protocol 27 mainnet upgrade.September 15: US Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.September 16, 9:00 a.m.: UK consumer and producer inflation data for August.September 16, 3:30 p.m.: US retail sales for August.September 16, 3:30 p.m.: US import and export prices for August.September 16, 4:00 p.m.: Approximately $12.7 million ARB token unlock.September 16–17: European Blockchain Convention.September 16, 9:00 p.m.: Fed interest rate decision and economic projections.September 16, 9:30 p.m.: Fed chair’s press conference.September 17, 12:00 p.m.: Final eurozone inflation data for August.September 17, 3:30 p.m.: US weekly jobless claims.September 17, 3:30 p.m.: US housing starts and building permits for August.September 17, 2:00 p.m.: Bank of England interest rate decision.September 17, 5:00 p.m.: Ethereum All Core Developers Consensus call.September 17, 10:00 a.m.: Bitget closes nine coin-margined perpetual contracts.Morning of September 18: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, followed by a press conference at 9:30 a.m.September 18, 1:00 p.m.: Bitget delists CAMP, RHEA, ORBS and TURBO spot pairs.September 18: Approximately $57.1 million TRUMP token unlock.September 18, 4:15 p.m.: US industrial production and capacity utilization for August.September 19: ETHTokyo Week begins.September 20, 3:00 a.m.: Approximately $15 million BR token unlock.September 20: Approximately $26.9 million ZRO token unlock.The market’s direction may depend less on whether the Fed raises rates and more on the statement’s guidance for future meetings. Oil prices above $100, BOJ-driven movements in the yen and the CLARITY Act vote could also widen trading ranges across Bitcoin and altcoins.
US producer inflation rose 5.4% annually in August. Selling across the cryptocurrency market accelerated following the data.Bitcoin fell 3.5% to $76,800. Ethereum dropped 3.8% to $2,417. Bitcoin had climbed as high as $79,606 during the day. However, selling pushed the price toward its daily low.Rising inflation strengthened expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Higher Treasury yields also pressured risk assets.The crypto market now awaits US consumer inflation data. The US will publish August CPI figures on September 11.US producer inflation climbed to 5.4%The US Labor Department published the August PPI figures. Producer prices increased 0.4% on a monthly basis.Economists also expected a 0.4% monthly increase. Therefore, the monthly figure matched market expectations.However, annual PPI reached 5.4%. Markets expected the annual rate to reach 5.3%.Producer inflation stood at 4.8% in July. Consequently, the latest figure signaled accelerating price pressures.Prices excluding food and energy increased 0.2% monthly. Annual core PPI rose to 4.6%.This rate stood at 4.2% in July. Therefore, underlying price pressures also remained strong.Rising energy costs particularly pushed producer prices higher. Increasing oil prices amplified inflation risks.Bitcoin fell below $77,000Bitcoin traded around $78,000 before the PPI report. Selling pressure increased considerably after the data.BTC fell to $76,788 during the writing of this report. Its daily loss reached 3.5%.Consequently, Bitcoin moved below the $77,000 support level again. The price also erased all its intraday gains.Bitcoin recently produced an important technical signal. Its 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day average.Investors call this pattern a “golden cross.” However, macroeconomic pressure limited short-term technical optimism.The $80,000 level represents strong resistance for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the $76,000 region remains important support.Continued selling could bring $75,000 into focus. Conversely, buyers could target $77,000 again.Ethereum’s loss reached 3.8%Ethereum also declined alongside Bitcoin. ETH fell as low as $2,416.The token had climbed to $2,517 during the day. However, strong selling ended its recovery attempt.Ethereum’s daily loss reached 3.8%. Therefore, ETH slightly underperformed Bitcoin.Altcoins generally move more sharply during risk-off periods. Consequently, macroeconomic uncertainty could intensify pressure on altcoins.Changes in Bitcoin dominance also carry importance. Rising dominance could deepen losses across altcoins.Rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured cryptoBrent crude remained above the $100 level. The price surpassed $105 during the day.Elevated oil prices increase energy-driven inflation risks. This outlook complicates the Fed’s interest rate decision.The US 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.9%. Rising yields reduce demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.Wall Street futures also declined following the data. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 1.1%.S&P 500 futures lost 0.47%. Meanwhile, Dow Jones futures declined 0.29%.Therefore, selling pressure extended beyond the cryptocurrency market. Declining global risk appetite affected several asset classes.Crypto market awaits US CPI dataInvestors now focus on Friday’s US CPI report. This data could carry greater weight in the Fed’s decision.Stronger-than-expected CPI could increase rate-hike expectations. Such an outcome could accelerate selling across cryptocurrencies.Lower inflation could provide short-term market relief. However, oil prices remain a key risk.The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. Therefore, Bitcoin volatility could remain elevated in the coming days.
