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MOVE Comments and Price Analysis July 10, 2025
Move Technical Analysis$8 million MOVE has been unlocked today, which raises concerns as to whether it will have an effect on the price. This unlock was realized when the price was trading at a key support area. As a result, it is important to read the analysis below. MOVE signaled a strong price recovery to the level of $0.20 recently, yet this momentum could not carry on and the price was rejected from the resistance zone which intersected the downtrend. The price is again at the $0.1453 support and trying to hold at the lower boundary of the trend, and this zone previously worked as a strong support. However, the current price poses a risk of sell pressure as it is below MA50 and MA200 along with a death cross.The price may pull back to the support $0.1346 if this sell pressure goes on. This level is of great importance for the price. If broken downwards, the sell pressure is likely to increase, and then the price may go down to the levels $0.1200 and $0.1050 respectively. In terms of upward movements, $0.1560 would be the first resistance level the price will face. If broken upwards, the price may go up and test $0.1666 again. However, the price must close above $0.18 if the trend should change permanently.These analyses, not offering any kind of investment advice, focus on support and resistance levels considered to offer trading opportunities in the short and medium term according to the market conditions. However, the user is responsible for their own actions and risk management. Moreover, it is highly recommended to use stop loss (SL) during the transactions.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto July 10, 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.We can say that Bitcoin crowned its ongoing volume trend with a new all-time high. After breaking out of the previous trend, BTC decisively surpassed key resistance levels and reached a record high of $111,999, followed by a natural pullback. This movement successfully met the previously highlighted $111,800 target. Going forward, as long as Bitcoin holds above the $109,600 level, the positive sentiment is likely to persist. The next target lies in the $114,000 region.Following Bitcoin’s lead, Ethereum continues to push through major resistance levels. Holding above $2,700 would support this bullish outlook. If the $2,880 resistance is broken, the $3,000 zone will be the next target.Crypto NewsTrump announces 50% tariffs on BrazilCoinbase to list SKY and USDSThe SEC postponed in-kind refunds for the BlackRock Spot Ethereum ETFThe SEC approved in-kind redemptions for the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust and Bitwise Ethereum ETFCircle enters into a USDC revenue-sharing agreement with ByBit, the second-largest crypto exchangeNvidia plans to launch a new AI chip specifically designed for China in SeptemberTrump: “Lower the interest rate.”Ripple will hold its $500 million reserve of $RLUSD crypto stablecoin with BNY MellonNvidia becomes the first company to reach a $4 trillion market capitalizationTrade Advisor Navarro: The Fed needs to lower interest rates in JulyCryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:M → Up 69.5% to $0.35883003PENGU → Up 23.9% to $0.01821681BANANAS31 → Up 22.5% to $0.02508994ZBCN → Up 20.8% to $0.00359288USELESS → Up 17.2% to $0.30264032Top Losers:TKX → Down 10.1% to $12.70VENOM → Down 2.1% to $0.22408004GRASS → Down 1.6% to $1.15MX → Down 1.3% to $2.41LEO → Down 1.2% to $8.99Fear Index:Bitcoin: 68 (Greed)Ethereum: 56 (Greed)Dominance:Bitcoin: 64.77% ▲ 0.02%Ethereum: 9.77% ▼ 0.09%Total Daily Net ETF Inflows:BTC ETFs: $215.70 MillionETH ETFs: $211.30 MillionGlobal MarketsWhile the Fed minutes reveal ongoing disagreements among members regarding interest rate cuts and inflation, U.S. President Trump has intensified his calls for a rate cut, this time proposing a reduction of up to 300 basis points.The tariff agenda has also regained momentum. After sending letters to 14 countries earlier this week, the U.S. extended similar communications yesterday to the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka.Despite these developments, market reactions to the tariff announcements continue to fade. The VIX index fell by 0.9 points yesterday to 15.9, signaling a sustained recovery in risk appetite.In the Fed minutes, members expressed differing views on whether the inflationary effects of tariffs would be transitory or persistent. They emphasized that overall growth and employment remain strong, that monetary policy is currently sufficiently tight, and that further action will depend on more conclusive data.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesNVIDIA (NVDA) → $3.97 trillion market capitalization, $162.88 per share, up 1.80%Microsoft (MSFT) → $3.74 trillion market capitalization, $503.51 per share, up 1.39%Apple (AAPL) → $3.15 trillion market capitalization, $211.14 per share, up 0.54%Amazon (AMZN) → $2.36 trillion market capitalization, $222.54 per share, up 1.45%Alphabet (GOOG) → $2.15 trillion market capitalization, $177.66 per share, up 1.43%Borsa IstanbulDomestically, May industrial production data is set to be released today. In April, production declined by 3.1% month-on-month but posted a 12.5% year-on-year increase. Preliminary indicators suggest that the weak production trend persisted into May.Following a two-day decline, the BIST-100 index rebounded above the 10,000 mark yesterday, supported by buying interest in banking, holding companies, Tüpraş, and Turkish Airlines shares. This upward move was fueled by expectations of a rate cut at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for July 24th, alongside a generally optimistic tone in domestic markets.Treasury and Finance Minister Şimşek, who met with investors in London yesterday, remarked that reserves have strengthened and the risk of volatility in the Turkish Lira has diminished. In addition to industrial production data, markets will also closely watch President Erdoğan’s statements on Saturday. The upward momentum in the BIST is expected to continue today.Companies with the Highest Market Value on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → 914.55 billion TL market capitalization, 281.00 TL per share, 2.93% increaseAselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → 694.03 billion TL market capitalization, 149.7 TL per share, down 1.64%Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → 576.66 billion TL market capitalization, 139.6 TL per share, 1.68% increaseKoç Holding A.Ş. (KCHOL) → 392.81 billion TL market capitalization, 160.3 TL per share, 3.49% increaseTürk Hava Yolları A.O. (THYAO) → Market capitalization: 387.09 billion TL, price per share: 286.75 TL, increased by 2.23%Precious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,278 TLSilver: 46.93 TLPlatinum: 1,744 TLDollar: 40.01 TLEuro: 47.05 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto July 9, 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin, which has maintained its volatility since last week, continued its upward trend over the weekend, closing on Sunday, expected to be stable, at $109,200. The $108,900 resistance level is a key threshold at this point. As long as the price remains above this level, it will aim to break above the $110,600 high. However, as seen yesterday, it failed to hold above the $108,900 resistance level and retreated to the $107,300 support level. For now, we can say it has found support in this region. A loss of this support could push the price to the $106,300 support level and then to the $104,900 support level. In an upside scenario, if the $111,920 high is broken, the first targets after the new ATH will be $114,000 and $120,000.Ethereum, following Bitcoin's lead, finished last week with a surge in volume. Looking at ETH from a broader perspective, we observe that it continues to trade within a range. The $2,465 level plays a key role in this. After last week's significant surge, the price holding above this level is a positive sign. It is also trading in a critical area in the short term. The $2,595–$2,550 area represents a broad resistance area. We have reached the $2,600 target we outlined in previous newsletters. However, if this level is breached, the price could rise to the $2,700 region.Crypto NewsTrump: Lower interest rates, Jerome, now is the time!The US House of Representatives announced that it is "taking historic steps to ensure the United States remains the crypto capital."Truth Social filed an S-1 for its Crypto Blue Chip ETF.Robinhood has begun discussions with regulators regarding tokenized stocks.CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:BANANAS31 → Up 31.2% to $0.02028966MOG → Up 17.0% to $0.00000113ZBCN → Up 16.9% to $0.00299969CRO → Up 15.1% to $0.09309514SPX → Up 13.4% to $1.41Top Losers:TKX → Down 11.6% to $13.95BONK → Down 7.1% to $0.00002186IP → Down 3.3% to $3.01SYRUP → Down 2.1% to $0.50968788FARTCOIN → Down 2.0% to $1.06Fear Index:Bitcoin: 67 (Greed)Ethereum: 59 (Greed)Dominance:Bitcoin: 65.01% ▼ 0.09%Ethereum: 9.46% ▼ 0.24%Total Daily Net ETF InflowsBTC ETFs: $75.30 MillionETH ETFs: $29.50 MillionGlobal MarketsGlobal risk appetite is balanced. Markets remain directionless due to conflicting statements from the US. While there is talk that the tariff period, which was extended from July 9 to August 1, may be relaxed again, President Trump's statement that there will be no extension has dampened morale. However, it is thought that this process is still subject to negotiation and new exemptions may be introduced. US futures are trading sideways this morning. With the tariff extension extended, markets focused on negotiations. The VIX index fell 1 point to 16.8, indicating a recovery in risk appetite. Meanwhile, according to a New York Fed survey, short-term inflation expectations in the US fell to 3%. 3- and 5-year expectations remained stable.Today, MBA mortgage applications and Fed minutes will be watched in the US, while CPI data will be watched in Mexico and Russia.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesNVIDIA (NVDA) → $3.90 trillion market capitalization, $160.00 per share, up 1.11%Microsoft (MSFT) → $3.69 trillion market capitalization, $496.62 per share, down 0.22%Apple (AAPL) → $3.14 trillion market capitalization, $210.01 per share, up 0.03%Amazon (AMZN) → $2.33 trillion market capitalization, $219.36 per share, down 1.84%,Alphabet (GOOG) → $2.12 trillion market capitalization, $175.16 per share, down 1.35%Borsa IstanbulDomestically, the Treasury raised a total of 48.3 billion TL through 7- and 9-year bond auctions. A 7-year variable-rate bond with a 22% periodic interest rate drew bids totaling 32.8 billion TL, while a 9-year fixed-coupon bond with a 31.55% compound interest rate resulted in 9.84 billion TL in sales.According to a decision published in the Official Gazette, the withholding tax rate was increased to 17.5% for deposits with maturities up to six months, and to 15% for those up to one year. These changes are expected to create short-term volatility in Turkish Lira assets.As selling pressure persisted in the markets, the benchmark bond yield climbed to 40%, while the 5-year CDS spread rose to 290 basis points. Despite the resilience shown by banks, the BIST-100 index closed the day below the 10,000 mark with a loss of over 1%.Second-quarter bank earnings showed a decline in net interest margin, while commission income rose and provisioning expenses remained contained. Overall profitability stayed in line with the previous quarter. With no major data releases scheduled for today, we expect the BIST to stabilize around the 10,000 level.Companies with the Highest Market Value on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → Market capitalization of 894.45 billion TL, price per share of 273.00 TL, increased by 2.25%Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → Market capitalization of 689.93 billion TL, price per share of 152.2 TL, increased by 0.59%Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → Market capitalization of 572.88 billion TL, price per share of 137.3 TL, increased by 0.66%Koç Holding A.Ş. (KCHOL) → Market capitalization of 397.38 billion TL, price per share of 154.9 TL, decreased by 1.15%Türk Hava Yolları A.O. (THYAO) → Market capitalization: 396.75 billion TL, price per share: 280.50 TL, decline: 2.43%Precious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,236 TLSilver: 47.09 TLPlatinum: 1,741 TLDollar: 40.04 TLEuro: 46.94 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
Watch Out for July 22: Cryptocurrency Report to be Presented in the US
The US is preparing to take another important step towards its goal of becoming a global leader in cryptocurrencies. The Trump administration is continuing its work on a new “Digital Asset Report” expected to be presented on July 22. This comprehensive report will include recommendations and regulations that will shape US policies on cryptocurrencies.This development comes after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order in January that aims to strengthen America’s position in the crypto industry. The administration’s ultimate goal is to make the US a global hub for cryptocurrencies.Bitcoin reserve on the agenda: Funding can be provided without increasing tax burdenOne of the most striking headlines of the report is America’s plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. According to industry sources, alternative funding methods that will not impose an additional burden on taxpayers are proposed for the financing of this reserve. Although this plan has not yet been finalized, it is expected that the US government’s influence on cryptocurrencies will increase if it is implemented.If this reserve plan is formalized, America’s leadership in the crypto market will be further consolidated and a strong national asset base will be created in the digital economy. A new era may begin in the US's crypto policies.National framework for cryptocurrenciesThe report being prepared is not limited to the Bitcoin reserve. With the proposal of the US Congress, the establishment of a federal digital asset regulatory framework for stablecoins is also on the agenda. In addition, it is suggested that steps be taken to ensure that crypto companies receive equal service from banking institutions such as the Federal Reserve. This approach aims to reduce discrimination against crypto companies in the financial system and provide more equitable access to the sector.Statement from the CFTC Chair: "Crypto roadmap"Caroline Pham, Interim Chair of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), defined the report in question as a "cryptocurrency roadmap". The report is expected to include new legal and regulatory proposals, as well as the steps taken by federal institutions for digital assets to date. The idea of a national digital asset reserve, announced by Trump in March, will also be one of the focal points of the report.The timing of the proposals to be included in the report is also noteworthy. The Trump administration has declared the week of July 14 as “Crypto Week.” Within this scope, crypto regulation bills will be discussed in the House of Representatives. Experts state that this report can be used as a critical policy tool in Trump’s upcoming election process. In general, we can say that there has been positive news about cryptocurrencies from the US recently. As we have previously reported, two US institutions will hold important hearings on cryptocurrencies on July 9, tomorrow. The House of Representatives will hold a hearing titled “Making America the Crypto Capital of the World: Ensuring Digital Asset Policy Fit for the 21st Century.” The Senate will hold a hearing titled “Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets.” In particular, providing legal clarity for Bitcoin and altcoins is very valuable for the sector.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto July 8, 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin maintained its strong volume structure since last week and ended Sunday steadily around $109,200. The $108,900 level stands out as a key resistance threshold. As long as the price holds above this level, it will aim to surpass the $110,600 peak. However, as seen yesterday, Bitcoin failed to stay above the $108,900 resistance and pulled back to the $107,300 support level. For now, it seems to have found support in this zone. If this support is lost, the price could decline first to $106,300 and then to the $104,900 support. On the upside, if the $111,920 peak is broken, the next targets following a new ATH would be $114,000 and $120,000.Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s trend, closing last week with rising volume. From a broader perspective, ETH continues to trade within a range. The $2,465 level plays a pivotal role here. Following last week’s notable price increase, it is a positive sign that ETH is holding above this level. In the short term, it is trading within a critical zone. The $2,595–$2,550 range forms a wide resistance area. The $2,600 target we previously highlighted has been reached. Should ETH break above this resistance, the price may rise toward the $2,700 region.Crypto NewsWhite House Official: Tariffs will not increase.TON Foundation Seeks New Vice President of Marketing After Reactions from "Fake" Partnerships.SEC Accepts Truth Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Application.SEC Postpones Fidelity Spot SOL ETF Application.Leavitt: Trump will sign a presidential decree postponing the July tariff deadline to August 1.Spain's second-largest bank, BBVA, has launched a Bitcoin and Ethereum trading and custody service via its mobile app.CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:M → Increased by 89.8% to $0.18881367HNT → Increased by 5.2% to $2.41GLM → Increased by 3.5% to $0.23439222MOCA → Increased by 3.4% to $0.07157369BONK → Increased by 3.3% to $0.00002287Top Losers:USELESS → Declined by 13.4% to $0.242857B → Declined by 11.3% to $0.35661965PLUME → Declined by 10.7% to $0.10422101SPX → Declined by 8.2% to $1.23SYRUP → Declined by 7.6%, it fell to $0.51531127Fear Index:Bitcoin: 68 (Greed)Ethereum: 50 (Neutral)Dominance:Bitcoin: 65.31% ▲ 0.04%Ethereum: 9.30% ▼ 0.08%Global MarketsThe US announced that it has imposed new customs duties of 25–40% on 14 countries. These rates will be effective as of August 1. The decision was made in addition to the previously announced sectoral taxes. In addition, the tariff postponement period, which was due to end on July 9, was extended to August 1.Although increasing uncertainty increased volatility in global markets, the reactions were not as harsh as in April. The VIX index increased by 0.3 points to 17.8. This indicates a slight weakening in risk appetite and an increased tendency towards safe havens. US futures started the day with a mixed outlook.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesNVIDIA (NVDA) → $3.86 trillion market value, $158.24 per share, down 0.69%Microsoft (MSFT) → $3.70 trillion market value, $497.72 per share, down 0.22%Apple (AAPL) → $3.14 trillion market value, $209.95 per share, down 1.69%Amazon (AMZN) → $2.37 trillion market value, $223.47 per share, up 0.03%Alphabet (GOOG) → $2.15 trillion market value, $177.56 per share, down 1.66%Borsa IstanbulTreasury Cash Balance had a deficit of 455.1 billion TL in June. While revenues were TL 856.6 billion, expenses were TL 1.31 trillion, interest payments were TL 250.4 billion.BIST-100 started the week with a 1.6% decrease. The risk aversion trend and the cautious atmosphere abroad supported this pullback. While the US postponing the customs duty decision to August 1 reflected positively on European stock markets, the US side remained more cautious.While there was no important data in the country today, the CDS premium increased by 10 basis points. The market will focus on the presentation that Treasury and Finance Minister Şimşek will make to foreign investors. In addition, the second-quarter results of banks may increase stock-based volatility. We expect a horizontal course in the index.Companies with the Highest Market Value on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → 922.93 billion TL market value, 267.00 TL per share price, 3.09% decreaseAselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → 689.47 billion TL market value, 151.3 TL per share price, 0.07% increaseTürkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → 577.08 billion TL market value, 136.4 TL per share price, 0.73% decreaseKoç Holding A.Ş. (KCHOL) → 410.05 billion TL market value, 156.7 TL per share price, decreased by 3.09%Türk Hava Yolları A.O. (THYAO) → 404.00 billion TL market value, 287.50 TL per share price, decreased by 1.79%Precious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,284 TLSilver: 47.32 TLPlatinum: 1,765 TLDollar: 39.97 TLEuro: 46.94 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto July 7, 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin continued its high-volume structure from last week into the weekend, closing the stable Sunday with an increase at the $109,200 level. BTC, which experienced a strong upward breakout from the downtrend that began in May, is now consolidating above this structure. The $108,900 resistance level is a key threshold at this point. As long as the price stays above this level, it will aim to break through the $110,600 peak. In case of pullbacks, the $108,900 level we mentioned earlier, followed by the trend support we saw at the average $108,000 point, could keep the price in this region. In an upward scenario, if the $111,920 peak is surpassed, the first targets after the new ATH will be the $114,000 and $120,000 levels.Ethereum also followed Bitcoin, closing the week with a volume-driven rise. When we look at ETH from a broader perspective, we observe that it continues to trade within the range. The $2,465 level plays a key role at this point. After last week's significant rise, it is positive that the price remains above this level. It is also trading in a critical area in the short term. The $2,595–$2,550 area stands out as a broad resistance area. We have reached the $2,600 target we gave in previous bulletins. However, if this region is breached, the price could rise as high as the $2,700 region.Crypto NewsAuthorities have announced that there is no golden visa for digital currency investors in the UAE.White House Economic Advisor Hassett stated that the likelihood of a recession is zero.Kazakhstan plans to establish a Bitcoin and crypto reserve.Toncoin has partnered with the UAE and started offering 10-year golden visas to TON stakers.A Bitcoin whale that has been dormant since 2011 moved 60,000 BTC today. The investor holds a total of 80,009 BTC ($8.69 billion).CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:TIA → Increased by 13.2% to $1.67B → Increased by 13.1% to $0.39170547SPX → Increased by 13.1% to $1.37KTA → Increased by 10.8% to $0.68357771IP → Increased by 8.6% to $3.19Top Losers:TKX → Declined by 42.6% to $9.04PENGU → Declined by 6.3% to $0.01521971TON → Declined by 6.2% to $2.82USELESS → Declined by 4.8% to $0.27979579SAFE → Declined by 2.3% to $0.42950742Fear Index:Bitcoin: 70 (Greed)Ethereum: 57 (Greed)Dominance:Bitcoin: 65.27% ▼ 0.05%Ethereum: 9.34% ▲ 0.13%Global MarketsThe US non-farm payrolls data for June came in at 147,000, above expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.1%. However, we observed a decline in working hours and hourly earnings. After the strong employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts weakened, and sales were seen in the bond market. US stock markets were closed on Friday due to a holiday.Global markets started the new week on a bearish note with tariff news from the US. President Trump announced that tariffs would take effect on August 1 instead of July 9 and signaled a 10% additional tariff on BRICS countries. On Friday, the VIX index rose 1.1 points to 17.5 amid low liquidity and trade uncertainty, indicating a decline in risk appetite.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesNVIDIA (NVDA) → Market capitalization of $3.89 trillion, share price of $159.34, up 1.33%Microsoft (MSFT) → Market capitalization of $3.71 trillion, share price of $498.84, up 1.58%Apple (AAPL) → Market capitalization of $3.19 trillion, share price of $213.55, up 0.52%Amazon (AMZN) → Market value of $2.37 trillion, share price of $223.41, up 1.59%Alphabet (GOOG) → Market value of $2.18 trillion, share price of $180.55, up 0.44%Borsa IstanbulInflation data declined slightly in June. Monthly inflation was 2.04%. Prices rose slightly faster in services, while the rate of increase slowed in goods. Today, the Treasury's cash balance will be announced. In addition, throughout the week, the government is also set to hold bond and bill auctions with various maturities.The Borsa Istanbul ended last week with a 9% gain, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut. This week, attention will turn to domestic economic data and developments related to U.S. tariff policies. Key items on the economic calendar include today’s cash budget, Thursday’s industrial production and retail sales data, and Friday’s balance of payments report. Additionally, corporate earnings announcements are set to begin. We anticipate the stock market will start the week with a slight pullback.Companies with the Highest Market Value on the Istanbul Stock ExchangeQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → Market value of 922.93 billion TL, share price of 266.50 TL, experienced a 3.27% declineAselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → Market value of 689.47 billion TL, share price of 149.10 TL, down 1.39%Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → Market value of 577.08 billion TL, share price of 137.50 TL, up 0.07%Koç Holding A.Ş. (KCHOL) → Market value of 410.05 billion TL, share price of 157.50 TL, a 2.60% declineTurkish Airlines A.O. (THYAO) → Market value of 404.00 billion TL, share price of 288.75 TL, experienced a 1.37% declinePrecious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,243 TLSilver: 47.21 TLPlatinum: 1,766 TLDollar: 39.94 TLEuro: 47.05 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 4 July 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin continues its high-volume structure that it has maintained for several days. The downward trend it started in May experienced a strong upward breakout and then successfully retested the $108,500 level. As we mentioned in yesterday's bulletin, the $110,600 and $111,920 levels are currently short-term targets. Our $110,600 target has been achieved. The next target is $111,920, which is noteworthy as it represents the highest point BTC has reached. If a new all-time high (ATH) is achieved, the $114,000 and $120,000 levels will be closely monitored. In the event of a pullback, the trend zone — the $108,000 area — will be the first area to react. Below that, the $107,100 level will come into focus.Ethereum is currently trading in the middle of the narrowing triangle pattern we observed when looking at the broader picture. Staying above the $2,420 level was important in the short term. It has now returned to the previous range. As with Bitcoin, volume remains high here, and a rise toward the recently tested $2,680 and $2,900 levels can be expected. In pullbacks, the $2,275–$2,400 support range will be monitored.Crypto NewsThe US House of Representatives declared July 14–18 as “Crypto Week.”Tether minted $1 billion worth of USDT.The SPK imposed an access ban on PancakeSwap on the grounds that it was conducting unauthorized crypto asset service provider activities.The US House of Representatives approved Trump’s “Big and Beautiful Plan.”Ondo Finance and Pantera Capital allocated $250 million to RWA tokenization.US Treasury Secretary Bessent: US Trade Representative Greer will hold talks with the EU over the weekend.U.S. Senator Lummis introduced a bill that would exempt crypto transactions under $300 from taxation.CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:TOSHI → +7.4% → $0.00050795PLUME → +4.3% → $0.1076886ZEC → +3.7% → $40.79AMP → +2.5% → $0.00351222AKT → +2.2% → $1.11Top Losers:KTA → –15.0% → $0.58735564USELESS → –11.2% → $0.22904396MOG → –9.2% → $0.09954781AIOZ → –9.0% → $0.3033793BRETT → –9.0% → $0.04279332Fear Index:Bitcoin: 71 (Greed)Ethereum: 57 (Greed)Dominance:Bitcoin: 65.30% ▲ 0.04%Ethereum: 9.35% ▼ 0.18%Daily Total Net ETF InflowsBTC ETFs: $601.80 millionETH ETFs: $148.50 millionGlobal MarketsFollowing yesterday’s strong non-farm payrolls data, the likelihood of a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve — which had been increasingly expected in recent days — has diminished. As of this morning, the total amount of rate cuts priced in by year-end has decreased from 65 basis points to 53 basis points. Despite downside risks to growth from high tariff policies and global volatility, robust employment figures signal resilience in the U.S. economy, thereby supporting risk appetite. The VIX fear index dropped by 0.3 points to 16.4 yesterday, indicating that the improvement in market sentiment has extended into July.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesNVIDIA (NVDA) → $3.89 trillion, $159.34 ▲ 1.33%Microsoft (MSFT) → $3.71 trillion, $498.84 ▲ 1.58%Apple (AAPL) → $3.19 trillion, $213.55 ▲ 0.52%Amazon (AMZN) → $2.37 trillion, $223.41 ▲ 1.59%Alphabet (GOOG) → $2.18 trillion, $180.55 ▲ 0.44%Borsa IstanbulIn Türkiye, the monthly inflation rate for June was 1.37%, below the 1.45% forecast. Annual inflation dropped from 35.41% to 35.05%. Thus, after a long interval, inflation remained under 2% for two consecutive months. The ongoing decline in the main trend of monthly inflation and the retreat in annual inflation have raised expectations for an interest rate cut by the CBRT this month.Yesterday, banking stocks saw profit-taking following the lower-than-expected inflation data. However, strong buying in Aselsan enabled the index to close positively. Today, trading volume on the BIST may remain low as US markets are closed. The main focus will be on the US tariff announcement scheduled for July 9 next week.Companies with the Highest Market Value on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → 948.05 billion TL, 280.00 TL ▼ 1.06%Aselsan Electronics Industry (ASELS) → 683.09 billion TL, 150.00 TL ▲ 0.13%Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → 569.52 billion TL, 135.20 TL ▼ 0.29%Koç Holding A.Ş. (KCHOL) → 410.05 billion TL, 160.70 TL ▼ 0.62%Turkish Airlines A.O. (THYAO) → 402.27 billion TL, 292.50 TL ▲ 0.34%Precious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,273 TLSilver: 47.21 TLPlatinum: 1,766 TLDollar: 39.84 TLEuro: 46.99 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow!
Eyes on the Fed After US Employment Data: Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts Weaken
The June non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data released in the US at 3:30 p.m. Turkish time triggered significant price movements in the markets. The higher-than-expected employment data and falling unemployment rate dampened investors' hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in July. The latest data reinforced expectations that the Fed will continue its “wait-and-see” policy on interest rate decisions.Employment data exceeded expectationsAccording to data released by the US Department of Labor, non-farm employment increased by 147,000 in June. This figure far exceeded economists' expectations of 111,000. The previous month's figure was recorded as 139,000. During the same period, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, compared to the 4.3% expectation. This improvement demonstrated that the US labor market is still strong. Source: CME FedWatch Following the release of the data, expectations in the futures markets that the Fed would cut interest rates at its July meeting fell sharply. Futures contracts tracked by CME FedWatch priced the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the end of July at just 4.7%. This rate had risen to 25% in recent weeks.Powell's cautious statements had an impactAs we reported earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized in a speech at a forum organized by the European Central Bank earlier this week that the possibility of an interest rate cut in July had not completely disappeared, but that the decision would depend on “incoming data.” However, the strong employment figures indicate that there is no urgency for the Fed to cut interest rates.Powell stated that they need time to assess the effects of the new tariffs that the Trump administration plans to implement and that they want to see inflation decline permanently. When evaluated together with the employment data, these statements indicate that the Fed will maintain its cautious stance.The view that interest rates will remain unchanged in July prevails in the marketsAccording to data from the crypto market prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on July 30 has risen to 94%. This data indicates that investors have largely abandoned their positions in favor of interest rate cuts.Investors had been thinking for some time that the Fed might bow to Trump's political pressure and cut interest rates if employment weakened. However, the strong picture seen on the employment front suggests that such a move will be postponed for now.As a result, the fact that the non-farm payrolls data, one of the most important indicators of the US economy, exceeded expectations has significantly weakened the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July. As Powell also pointed out, the Fed is not expected to make a hasty move. On the contrary, current economic indicators provide a strong basis for keeping interest rates unchanged. The data released ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of July will be decisive in determining the sustainability of this strategy.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 3 July 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin continues its high-volume structure that it has maintained for several days. After breaking out strongly from the downward trend it started in May, it successfully retested the $108,500 level. The $110,600 and $111,920 levels are currently short-term targets. If a new ATH is reached, the $114,000 and $120,000 levels will be closely monitored. In the event of a pullback, the trend zone, i.e., the $108,000 area, will be the first region to react. Below that, the $107,100 level will come into focus.Ethereum is currently trading near the midpoint of a narrowing triangle pattern when viewed from a broader perspective. Holding above the $2,420 level was significant in the short term, but the price has since returned to its previous range. As with Bitcoin, trading volume remains high, and a move toward the previously tested $2,680 and $2,900 levels may be anticipated. In case of a pullback, the $2,275–$2,400 support range will be closely monitored.Crypto NewsCoinbase acquired Liquify.Trump signed a trade agreement with Vietnam.SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the agency is committed to advancing tokenization.The US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has requested an urgent congressional investigation into Fed Chairman Powell for alleged misuse of his position.Ripple is seeking a national banking license, joining other cryptocurrency companies seeking integration with traditional financial systems.U.S. Treasury Secretary Faulkender: I expect a series of agreements to be announced next week.CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:MOODENG → Increased by 42.3% to $0.19902918NEIRO → Increased by 27.4% to $0.00048296BONK → Increased by 20.7% to $0.00001718USELESS → Increased by 19.8% to $0.25870575KTA → Increased by 17.3% to $0.69341888Top Losers:KAITO → Declined by 5.8% to $1.61KET → Declined by 2.7% to $0.38153133AB → Declined by 1.5% to $0.00829551ZBCN → Declined by 1.2% to $0.00326608WBT → Declined by 0.7% to $43.75Fear Index:Bitcoin: 68 (Greed)Ethereum: 55 (Greed)Dominance:Bitcoin: 65.19% ▼ 0.12%Ethereum: 9.34% ▼ 0.22%Daily Total Net ETF InflowsBTC ETFs: $407.80 millionETH ETFs: –$1.90 millionKey Data to Watch TodayUS – Independence Day – Early close at 1:00 PM3:30 PM – Average Hourly Earnings (Monthly) (June) Expected: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%3:30 PM – Initial Jobless Claims Forecast: 240K | Previous: 236K3:30 PM – Nonfarm Payrolls (June) Forecast: 111K | Previous: 139K3:30 PM – Unemployment Rate (June) Expectation: 4.3% | Previous: 4.2%4:45 PM – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (June) Expectation: 53.1 | Previous: 53.15:00 PM – ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (June) Expectation: 50.8 | Previous: 49.9Global MarketsU.S. indices closed higher ahead of the upcoming non‑farm payrolls report. The S&P 500 gained 0.47%, the Nasdaq rose 0.94%, while the Dow Jones ended the session flat. The trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam was positively received by markets, as it is expected to help mitigate the inflationary impact of high tariffs. In response to these developments, the VIX fear index declined to 16.6.June’s ADP private sector employment data showed an unexpected decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the first drop since March 2023. Job losses were concentrated in small and medium-sized businesses, while large firms continued to add workers. Today, markets will closely follow non‑farm payrolls, the ISM services index, and weekly jobless claims in the U.S.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesNVIDIA (NVDA) → Market capitalization of $3.84 trillion, share price of $157.25, up 2.58%.Microsoft (MSFT) → Market capitalization of $3.65 trillion, share price of $491.09, down 0.20%.Apple (AAPL) → Market capitalization of $3.17 trillion, share price of $212.44, up 2.22%.Amazon (AMZN) → Market capitalization of $2.33 trillion, share price of $219.92, down 0.24%.Alphabet (GOOG) → Market capitalization of $2.17 trillion, share price of $179.76, up 1.61%.Borsa IstanbulWhile Borsa Istanbul continues to hold above 10,000 points, cash inflows and trading volume continue to increase. According to inflation data released today for June, the CPI rose 1.64% month‑on‑month, with annual inflation reaching 35.05%. The data came in slightly below the market expectation of 35.2%. The lower-than-expected inflation supports the upward trend in the BIST, particularly in interest rate‑sensitive sectors.According to provisional data from the Ministry of Trade, exports increased by 8% year‑on‑year to $20.5 billion in June, while imports increased by 15.3% to $28.7 billion. As a result, the trade deficit increased by $2.3 billion year‑on‑year to $8.2 billion. The total deficit for the first half of the year was $49.4 billion, while the 12‑month cumulative deficit was $89.2 billion. This indicates that the deterioration in the trade balance continues.Following a nearly 30% rise in the banking index over the past month, the likelihood of a stock shift has increased, while the CDS remaining at 280 basis points may limit the upward movement in the index. Today, we expect a volatile but generally positive trend on the BIST following the release of the data.Companies with the Highest Market Value on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → Market value of 958.1 billion TL, share price of 284.75 TL, down 0.44%.Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → Market value of 663.94 billion TL, share price of 150.20 TL, up 3.16%.Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → Market value of 583.38 billion TL, share price of 136.20 TL, experienced a 1.94% decline.Koç Holding A.Ş. (KCHOL) → Market value of 410.82 billion TL, share price of 163.00 TL, saw a 0.62% increase.Turkish Airlines A.O. (THYAO) → Market value of 401.58 billion TL, share price of 291.75 TL, increase of 0.26%.Precious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,293 TLSilver: 46.17 TLPlatinum: 1,739 TLDollar: 39.91 TLEuro: 47.06 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 2 July 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin tested the $108,860 level over the weekend with strong volume, marking a sharp contrast to the recent downward trend. This area represents the intersection of both descending trendline resistance and horizontal resistance. After facing rejection at this level, BTC pulled back to the $105,000–$106,600 support zone, from which it has since rebounded. The price is currently hovering around $107,300. A daily close above $108,800 could pave the way toward a new all-time high (ATH). On the downside, if the $106,600 support fails to hold, attention will shift to the $104,900 level as the next key support.Ethereum also saw a notable rally over the weekend. After breaking through the $2,465 resistance on strong volume, it climbed toward the $2,525 resistance level. However, ETH has faced multiple rejections from this area over the past week and subsequently retreated to the $2,370 support. It is currently retesting the $2,465 resistance, and a successful breakout could lead to a move toward the $2,600 level. In case of a pullback, the $2,410 level is expected to act as key support. Should this level break, the $2,350–$2,370 zone will be closely watched for further support.Crypto NewsDeFi Development plans to issue $100 million in convertible bonds maturing in 2030 to purchase Solana and repurchase shares.Popular design app Figma disclosed in its IPO filing that it holds a $70 million Bitcoin ETF investment. It was also revealed that the company's board of directors approved an additional $30 million in Bitcoin purchases.The SEC has approved the conversion of the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund into an ETF (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA).The SEC is evaluating standard listing criteria to expedite the approval process for crypto ETFs.US Treasury Secretary Bessent: We are moving toward a vote today on a significant and important piece of legislation.Deutsche Bank plans to launch a crypto custody service in 2026.CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:AIC → Increased by 18.8% to $0.17643453.USELESS → Increased by 17.1% to $0.22494803.VENOM → Increased by 9.4% to $0.19972119.KET → Increased by 9.3% to $0.39385646.KAITO → Increased by 8.6% to $1.70.Top Losers:ALGO → Declined by 5.9% to $0.17567776.CFX → Declined by 4.7% to $0.07452071.TEL → Declined by 4.5% to $0.00388872.KAIA → Declined by 4.0% to $0.15905976.MOVE → Declined by 3.9% to $0.16701015.Fear Index:Bitcoin: 64 (Greed)Ethereum: 50 (Neutral)Dominance:Bitcoin: 65.42% ▼ 0.12%Ethereum: 9.11% ▲ 0.64%Daily Total Net ETF InflowsBTC ETFs: -$342.20 millionETH ETFs: $40.70 millionData to Watch Today• 3:15 PM – ADP Nonfarm Employment (June) Expectation: 99K | Previous: 37K• 5:30 PM – Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories Expectation: -3,500M | Previous: -5,836MGlobal MarketsWe are starting the new day with a positive tone across global markets. Former President Trump’s renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, combined with ongoing tax cut proposals and progress in trade negotiations, is helping to lift risk appetite. The VIX fear index edged up slightly to 16.8, reflecting a market environment that remains cautious yet optimistic.In macroeconomic data, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 49.0 in June. While production showed improvement, both new orders and employment components continued to soften. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained in the growth zone at 52.9.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesNVIDIA (NVDA) → Market capitalization of $3.74 trillion, share price of $153.30, down 2.97%.Microsoft (MSFT) → Market capitalization of $3.66 trillion, share price of $492.05, down 1.08%.Apple (AAPL) → Market capitalization of $3.10 trillion, share price of $207.82, up 1.29%.Amazon (AMZN) → Market capitalization of $2.34 trillion, share price of $220.46, up 0.49%.Alphabet (GOOG) → Market value of $2.14 trillion, share price of $176.91, down 0.27%.Borsa IstanbulThe ISO PMI data declined to 46.7, remaining in the contraction zone. The slowdown in demand is also limiting companies' pricing power. In Istanbul, June inflation was 1.77% monthly and 44.38% annually. Consumer confidence rose to 77.The BIST-100 index closed the day above 10,000 points with a gain of over 1%, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and foreign investor interest. If today's bank earnings reports come in lower than expected, there could be limited profit-taking in banking stocks. However, the main focus is on tomorrow's inflation data. A flat trend is expected in the index today.Companies with the Highest Market Value on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → Market value of 914.55 billion TL, share price of 274.00 TL, increased by 0.37%.Aselsan Electronics Industry (ASELS) → Market value of 676.7 billion TL, share price of 148.50 TL, saw a 0.07% increase.Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → Market value of 574.98 billion TL, share price of 137.30 TL, increased by 0.29%.Enka Construction and Industry (ENKAI) → Market value of 400.95 billion TL, share price of 67.85 TL, experienced a 0.80% decrease.Turkish Airlines A.O. (THYAO) → Market value of 400.89 billion TL, share price of 291.50 TL, up 0.34%.Precious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,282 TLSilver: 46.17 TLPlatinum: 1,739 TLDollar: 39.85 TLEuro: 47.07 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 1 July 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin tested the $108,860 level over the weekend with strong volume, marking a notable move contrary to the downward trend observed in recent weeks. This zone represents the intersection of both descending trendline resistance and horizontal resistance. Should the trend continue, BTC will encounter support in the $106,600–$107,200 range. A daily close above $108,800 could pave the way toward a new all-time high (ATH). Conversely, if the $106,600 support level is breached, attention will shift to the $104,900 level as the next key area.Ethereum also saw a notable rally over the weekend. After breaking above the $2,465 resistance with strong volume, ETH extended its move to the $2,525 resistance level. However, this area has acted as a barrier, with multiple rejections observed over the past week. A decisive breakout above $2,525 could open the path to the $2,600 level. In the event of a pullback, $2,465 is expected to act as strong support. If this level fails to hold, the $2,370–$2,400 zone will be closely monitored.Crypto NewsThe SEC has delayed staking for the BITWISE Spot ETH ETF.The EU will accept Trump's universal customs duty but will demand some important exemptions.The White House announced that Trump sent a handwritten note to Fed Chairman Powell asking him to lower interest rates.Goldman Sachs moved the Fed's interest rate cut from December to September.REX‑OSPREY’s staking‑enabled Solana ETF will begin trading on Wednesday, the CEO announced.Advent purchased $1 billion worth of shares from LayerZero (#ZRO) to support the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers.U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: The stablecoin law will be ready by mid‑July. This will also increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds.Robinhood EU will launch tokenized stocks, including private equity such as $OPAI.Strategy purchased 4,980 BTC.Metaplanet purchased 1,005 Bitcoin and issued $208 million in bonds to purchase more BTC.CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:TNQ → Increased by 28.1% to $1.85.PLUME → Increased by 12.6% to $0.09251397.BCH → Increased by 5.6% to $525.97.SUN → Increased by 4.1% to $0.01712809.TEL → Increased by 2.1% to $0.0040765.Top Losers:BSV → Declined by 21.3% to $24.30.KTA → Declined by 20.8% to $0.58079237.GRASS → Declined by 15.3% to $0.98806251.TKX → Declined by 13.2% to $23.97.ARB → Declined by 12.6% to $0.32513715.Fear Index:Bitcoin: 65 (Greed)Ethereum: 56 (Greed)Dominance:Bitcoin: 65.33% ▲ 0.17%Ethereum: 9.13% ▼ 0.56%Daily Total Net ETF Inflows:BTC ETFs: $102.10 millionETH ETFs: $31.80 millionToday's Key Data Points:• 4:30 PM – Fed Chair Powell's Speech• 4:45 PM – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (June) Expectation: 52.0 | Previous: 52.0• 5:00 PM – ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (June) Expectation: 48.8 | Previous: 48.5• 5:00 PM – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (May) Expectation: 7.320 M | Previous: 7.391 MGlobal MarketsIn global markets, the U.S.’s conciliatory stance on tariffs and tax‑cut plans are supporting stock markets, while risk appetite remains balanced. Statements regarding interest rate cuts have boosted expectations, pushing stock prices higher while also increasing the price of gold.Although equity markets ended June at record highs, uncertainties surrounding ongoing tariff negotiations in certain countries continue to linger. The VIX fear index rose by 0.4 points, reflecting this cautious sentiment.Trump again strongly reiterated his call for interest rate cuts to Powell. As of July 1, markets are expecting a 67‑basis‑point interest rate cut by the end of the year.Most Valuable Companies and Stock Prices:NVIDIA (NVDA) → Market value of $3.85 trillion, share price of $157.99, up 0.15%.Microsoft (MSFT) → Market capitalization of $3.70 trillion, share price of $497.41, up 0.30%.Apple (AAPL) → Market capitalization of $3.06 trillion, share price of $205.17, up 2.03%.Amazon (AMZN) → Market capitalization of $2.33 trillion, share price of $219.39, down 1.75%.Alphabet (GOOG) → Market capitalization of $2.14 trillion, share price of $177.39, down 0.49%.Borsa IstanbulIn May, the foreign‑trade deficit was close to expectations at $6.65 billion. Exports increased by 2.6%, while imports rose by 2.7%. In the first five months of the year, the foreign deficit grew by 13% to $41.3 billion, while the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% in May.According to TÜRK-İŞ data, the poverty line rose to 26,115 TL in June. The Treasury will make a total of 906 billion TL in domestic debt payments between July and September.Yesterday, the BIST index rose by 6%. The CDS falling below 300 basis points increased risk appetite. Purchases are expected to continue today. This week’s key agenda items include Thursday’s inflation data and the Central Bank of Turkey’s interest rate decision, scheduled for July 24.Companies with the Highest Market Value on the Istanbul Stock Exchange:QNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → 904.5 billion TL market value, share price 270.00 TL, 0.00% change.Aselsan Electronics Industry (ASELS) → Market value of 687.65 billion TL, share price of 150.80 TL, 0.00% change.Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → Market value of 567 billion TL, share price of 137.80 TL, 2.07% increase.Turkish Airlines A.O. (THYAO) → Market value of 391.23 billion TL, share price of 288.00 TL, 1.59% increase.Koç Holding A.Ş. (KCHOL) → Market value of 390.53 billion TL, share price of 156.90 TL, increase of 1.88%.Precious Metals and Currency Prices:Gold: 4,264 TLSilver: 46.35 TLPlatinum: 1,718 TLDollar: 39.89 TLEuro: 47.03 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Critical “Interest Rate Cut” Messages Delivered
Signs of a slowdown in the US labor market began to be felt more clearly in June. According to economists' expectations, it is estimated that 110,000 jobs were created in the country in June. This figure falls short of the 139,000 increase in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. This rate will mark the highest level since October 2021.Although this weakening in employment does not directly indicate a crisis, there are increasing signs of a “gradual cooling” in the job market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also confirmed this picture in his speech, which began at 4:30 p.m. today. Powell: Interest rate cuts may come this yearFed Chairman Powell stated in his speech that the overall outlook for the US economy is good and that inflation continues to decline. However, the key point was the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and the impact of tariffs on monetary policy.Powell said, “The US economy is in good shape and inflation continues to decline. If we set tariffs aside, we can say that inflation is moving in the direction we targeted.”Even more striking were his comments on interest rate policy. When asked, “Would you have cut rates if there were no tariffs?” Powell replied, “Yes, we would have.” He also defended the Fed's cautious stance, saying, “When the tariff discussions began, we thought it was right to wait.”Powell also noted that the majority of FOMC members believe that an interest rate cut would be appropriate toward the end of this year, adding that no meeting is “off the table” in terms of interest rate cuts and that decisions will be shaped by incoming data.When asked, “Is an interest rate cut in July too early?” Powell avoided giving a direct answer, saying, "I can't say whether July is too early for an interest rate cut. I am not taking any meeting off the agenda."S&P manufacturing data exceeded expectationsWhile cooling in the labor market and expectations of interest rate cuts remained on the agenda, the latest PMI data from the US continued to produce mixed signals for the economy. The Manufacturing PMI data released by S&P Global rose from 52.0 in June to 52.9, exceeding expectations. This data points to expansion in the manufacturing sector, but when read alongside employment data, it paints an uneven but resilient economic picture.Uncertainty persistsJune data points to a controlled slowdown rather than a rapid contraction in the labor market. On the Fed front, the idea of interest rate cuts is now being voiced more loudly. In particular, Powell's statements clearly expressing the impact of tariffs on monetary policy have brought the possibility of an interest rate cut in the fall seriously to the fore.The official non-farm payroll data to be released on Thursday will play a critical role in the trajectory of this process. Markets are preparing to make new price adjustments based on the Fed's “data-dependent” stance.
US Inflation Indictor Announced: How Did Bitcoin React?
The core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), published by the US Department of Commerce on June 27, came in above expectations as one of the critical economic inflation indicators on the markets' radar. The announcement of annual inflation of 2.7 percent exceeded the market expectation of 2.6 percent and once again threw investors' hopes regarding the US Federal Reserve's (FED) interest rate policy into uncertainty. The Bitcoin (BTC) price initially experienced slight fluctuations after the data.Inflation indicator above expectationsThe core PCE price index, known as the FED's favorite inflation indicator, rose to 2.7 percent on an annual basis in May. On a monthly basis, inflation was announced as 0.2 percent. This measurement, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, is considered a critical reference in the FED's monetary policy decisions. Accordingly, it is noteworthy that the core PCE has been above the FED's 2 percent target for 51 months. It is stated that the tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump after his re-election put pressure on import costs in particular. According to data from Yale University's Budget Lab, the average effective tariff rate rose from 2.2 percent in 2024 to 15.8 percent by 2025, reaching its highest level since 1936. Although the impact of this situation on inflation seems to be limited, experts point out the possibility that companies will pass these costs on to consumers in the coming months.How did the Bitcoin market react?With the announcement of the data, there were short-term fluctuations in the price of the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin. According to market data, BTC, which was around $ 107,200 during the day, fell to $ 106,800 after the data. While volumes in the market increased in general, there was a temporary weakening in investors' risk appetite. As can be seen in the image, BTC, which was horizontal until the morning of June 27 before the price data, turned downward as inflation figures exceeded expectations. The subsequent recovery attempts were weak.Will there be a rate cut?After the FED passed on the expected rate cut in June, markets are focused on September. However, an upward surprise in inflation could undermine these expectations. Bank of America economists warn that core PCE inflation could reach 3.1 percent by the end of the year, and comments are being made that this situation could delay interest rate cut expectations.However, the same experts predict that this increase in inflation could be temporary and will fall back to around 2 percent by the end of 2026. These estimates indicate that the FED will continue to be “patient but cautious” in its interest rate decisions.The employment and growth data to be released in the coming weeks will determine the course of both the FED and crypto investors. In particular, the impact of President Trump’s economic policies on inflation seems to be one of the main dynamics determining the course of the markets for the rest of the year.
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 26 June 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto” below, featuring a roundup of the most important developments from both global and local markets. Let’s analyze the broader market sentiment and latest insights together.Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $100,000 mark at the height of geopolitical tensions over the weekend, following the U.S. intervention in the Iran–Israel conflict. However, fueled by strong buying momentum at the start of the new week, BTC quickly reclaimed this critical psychological threshold. The price surged from a low of $98,000 to as high as $108,000. A pullback after such a sharp rally is considered natural, while holding above the $100,000 level continues to serve as a key confidence line, both technically and psychologically.As for Ethereum, as highlighted in our previous analysis, the $2,100 region has proven to be a solid support zone. Renewed buying interest in this area has propelled ETH toward the short-term target of $2,400. The $2,430 level is currently being monitored as support, while $2,600 stands as the next resistance to watch.Crypto NewsInvesco Galaxy submitted the S-1 form for the Solana ETF.Canary filed an application with the CBOE for the PENGU ETF.The US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) decided to accept cryptocurrencies as collateral (mortgage) for those wishing to buy a home.The FHFA directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider crypto assets in their mortgage evaluations.NVIDIA reached a new ATH level.Powell: At some point, we will resume interest rate cuts.The Nasdaq 100 reached a new ATH, hitting an all-time high.CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:MOVE → Increased by 33.5% to $0.19715073.MOCA → Increased by 11.1% to $0.07644085.XCN → Increased by 10.4% to $0.01645214.KAS → Increased by 7.6% to $0.07954247.DOG → Increased by 7.3% to $0.00407479.Top Losers:FRAX → Declined by 11.4% to $2.02.POPCAT → Declined by 9.0% to $0.27353041.CRV → Down 8.9% to $0.52128798.FARTCOIN → Down 8.5% to $0.9840403.SEI → Down 8.2% to $0.28035777.Fear Index:Bitcoin: 70 (Greed)Ethereum: 57 (Greed)Dominance:Bitcoin: 65.61% ▼ 0.17%Ethereum: 9.16% ▲ 1.90%Daily Total Net ETF InflowsBTC ETFs: $547.70 millionETH ETFs: $60.40 millionGlobal MarketsGlobal risks continue to take a back seat as the Israel–Iran ceasefire continues, and the positive mood in global markets is maintained. The calm course of oil prices and the improvement in risk perception are providing stability to the stock markets. The VIX volatility index fell 0.7 points yesterday to 16.8, its lowest level since February.Today's data calendar is busy in the US. The May trade balance, durable goods orders, pending home sales, and the final estimate of first-quarter growth will be monitored. According to the second estimate, the US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year. During this period, imports of goods and services increased by 43%, while growth in consumer spending was 1.2%, the lowest level in the last five quarters.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesNVIDIA (NVDA) → Market capitalization of $3.77 trillion, share price of $154.31, up 4.33%.Microsoft (MSFT) → Market capitalization of $3.66 trillion, share price of $492.27, up 0.44%.Apple (AAPL) → Market capitalization of $3.01 trillion, share price of $201.56, up 0.63%.Amazon (AMZN) → Market capitalization of $2.25 trillion, share price of $211.99, down 0.37%.Alphabet (GOOG) → Market value of $2.08 trillion, share price of $171.49, up 2.24%.Borsa IstanbulAccording to a report published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) in June, inflation expectations declined across all sectors. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 24.6% among market participants, 39.8% in the real sector, and 53% among households. This is the lowest level since November 2021.There was strong demand for the Treasury's 5-year $2.5 billion lease certificate issuance. The lease rate was set at 6.75%. Thus, a total of $7 billion in external funding has been secured since the beginning of the year.The BIST 100 closed yesterday with a 0.3% decline. Holding, retail, and refinery stocks retreated, while Aselsan and Turkcell remained strong. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) summary will be announced today. If there are no significant developments on the global front, the market may remain flat.Top Companies by Market Capitalization on the Istanbul Stock ExchangeQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → Market capitalization of 866.81 billion TL, share price of 265.00 TL, up 2.42%.Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → Market value of 676.7 billion TL, share price of 147.10 TL, down 0.88%.Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → Market value of 502.32 billion TL, share price of 121.00 TL, up 1.17%.Turkish Airlines A.O. (THYAO) → Market value of 374.67 billion TL, share price of 272.00 TL, saw a 0.18% increase.Enka Construction and Industry (ENKAI) → Market value of 369.3 billion TL, share price of 64.30 TL, increase of 2.06%.Precious Metals and Currency PricesGold: 4,266 TLSilver: 46.47 TLPlatinum: 1,778 TLDollar: 39.76 TLEuro: 46.56 TLWe look forward to bringing you the latest updates again tomorrow.
Fed's Interest Rate Message: Barkin Emphasizes 'Patience'
The governors of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) are taking a cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to the ongoing uncertainty about the course of inflation. While Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin’s statements emphasize the need to be patient about the direction of monetary policy, President Donald Trump’s early announcement of the name that will replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell is increasing concerns about the bank’s independence.Critical statements from Thomas BarkinThomas Barkin said in a speech at the New York Business Economics Association that he expects the impact of tariffs on inflation to be limited. Barkin, who stated that they still cannot fully see the future effects of tariffs and budget policies, said, “Given the strength in today’s economy, we have time to patiently monitor developments and allow visibility to improve.” According to Barkin, there is little benefit in making hasty policy changes in any direction at the moment.The latest statements show a common cautious stance among Fed officials. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also stated that a promising period for interest rate cuts is approaching, but emphasized that the price pressure that tariffs could create would be limited. Daly argued that the Fed should maintain the current interest rate level until it sees the effects on inflation more clearly.Another factor that affects the Fed's interest rate decisions is President Trump's political pressure. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump's consideration of announcing Powell's successor earlier than the official calendar has raised questions among investors about the Fed's political independence. These developments caused the dollar to fall to its lowest levels in recent years against the euro and the Swiss franc.Cryptocurrencies are closely following the developmentsOn the other hand, macroeconomic data also support the Fed's cautious stance. Quarterly GDP data in the US fell below expectations, showing a contraction of 0.5 percent. At the same time, there was a surprising increase of 16.4 percent in durable goods orders, while the decrease in initial unemployment applications was also striking. This complex picture reveals the risks the Fed faces in terms of both employment and inflation targets.The new tariffs, expected to go into effect on July 9, could be a significant turning point in the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Barkin and other Fed officials think it makes sense to take interest rate decisions slowly in order to observe the effects of such developments more clearly.Cryptocurrency markets are following these developments closely. While Bitcoin is hovering above $107,000 in anticipation of a rate cut, investors are eagerly waiting to see how the PCE data to be released tomorrow will affect the markets. If uncertainties ease in July in particular, a new wave of rise could begin for cryptocurrencies.
