Bitcoin has reversed course after a sharp pullback last week. With buying during the Asian session on Wednesday and Thursday morning, the BTC price managed to hold above the $91,000 level. The 24-hour gain reached 4.5%. Market analysts believe this move is fueled by both a technical reactionary surge and a surge in risk appetite fueled by strengthening macroeconomic expectations.
Market data shows that Bitcoin, which fell to $81,000 last week and shook off the market-shattering decline, first recovered to $89,000 and then climbed to $91,700. Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu described this reversal as a "classic oversold reaction," stating that liquidity has improved and risk appetite has revived.
On the macro front, all eyes are on December. CME's FedWatch data shows that the probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December meeting has increased to 84.7%. This rate was around 70% last week. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, the market has begun to price in a strong discount. This expectation is creating a liquidity environment that supports both the equity and crypto markets.
HashKey Group Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that Bitcoin's rise is "a natural recovery after a sharp decline," rather than a single catalyst. According to Ding, the market structure remains healthy, and long-term fundamentals remain strong.
Altcoins are also recovering
Not only BTC but also major altcoins have accompanied the recovery. Ethereum rose 3% to $3,030, while XRP rose 1%. BNB rose 3.9% to near $890, and Solana rose 2.9% to $143. However, weakness persists in some altcoins. For example, Cardano (ADA) has lost 7% of its value in the last seven days, lagging behind the mainstream basket. Meanwhile, perhaps the most striking factor in the market in recent days has been the strong inflows into XRP ETFs. Grayscale's GXRP product attracted $67.4 million, and Franklin Templeton's XRPZ ETF attracted $62.6 million. Total XRP ETF assets exceeded $628 million, with nearly 80 million XRP absorbed in the first 24 hours. This interest even surpassed the first-day performance of the Solana ETF, which launched at the beginning of the year.
Statements from some institutional desks, however, maintain the short-term uncertainty. Anthony Pompliano stated that as the year-end approaches, some institutional investors are reducing their Bitcoin positions due to risk management related to the bonus period. CryptoQuant, on the other hand, notes that BTC's risk-return ratio has reached its most attractive level since mid-2023, a signal that historically points to a new period of accumulation.
The rise in the long-short ratio of large accounts on Binance to 3.8 suggests that leveraged investors are betting on a return. However, Citi analysts predict that Bitcoin will consolidate in the $82,000–$90,000 range until the first half of 2026.
