The US Federal Reserve takes the stage today; the decision will be announced at 9:00 PM Turkish time. Markets are almost certain that Jerome Powell will announce the first interest rate cut of the year. Interest rates, which have been held steady since December 2024, could now be met with a downward move due to weakening employment data and increasing political pressure.
The expectation is clear. Futures pricing assigns a 25 basis point cut a probability of over 90%, with a 50 basis point surprise being discussed in rare scenarios. Such a move would soften the narrative of dollar liquidity and support flows into assets like gold and Bitcoin. The reverse is also possible; if the Fed passes, the initial reaction could be a sharp sell-off, followed by the possibility of a larger emergency cut.
The crypto market appears calm but alert ahead of the decision. The Bitcoin price is consolidating between $114,600 and $117,100 during the day, trading near the upper limit. On the on-chain side, the short-term investor cost remains above the reference bands, favoring sentiment. This chart indicates a squeeze that could react sharply to the news flow.
According to experts, the critical threshold is $118,000–118,500. A break above this area with volume could strengthen momentum toward $120,000, opening the door to an all-time high from there. In short, the direction will depend on how 118,000 is tested.
Gold is also in the picture. The price per ounce is just below $3,700, close to records. While profit-taking is evident in mining stocks, the resistance on the spot side aligns with the narrative of a rate cut. Depending on the Fed's tone, traffic across the two bridges could increase or briefly reverse.
Let's clarify the scenarios: If the expected 25 basis points come in and guidance isn't neutral-hawkish, Bitcoin's gradual upward trend will be maintained, with occasional leverage-related wicks. A 50 basis point surprise could trigger an "initial euphoria, followed by news selling" pattern; if growth concerns prevail, some of the gains will be returned. If the price is passed as expected, crypto and gold will be hit first, followed by a recovery driven by the expectation of a larger price cut.
It's worth remembering: A similar setup worked in September 2024. Initially, there was a shakeup, then an accelerating trend. Of course, past performance isn't guaranteed; what matters today is Powell's statements at the press conference around 9:30 PM, along with the 9:00 PM decision. Key phrases like "inflation progress," "labor market balancing," and "data dependence for further price cuts" could influence pricing for how many price cuts we'll see throughout the rest of the year.
What are investors waiting for?
Probabilities are clustered around three price cut paths in the CME FedWatch and crypto prediction markets. In summary, the 9:00 PM (UTC) anchor is critical. A 25 basis point and a softer tone could open the door for Bitcoin to push the 118,000 threshold; a clean breakout could bring 120,000 and the top zone into focus. In the event of a hawkish surprise or a lapse, the 116,800–114,500 and 113,300–110,000 corridors could serve as defensive lines.
