The latest data on the US economy revealed a significant slowdown in growth in the last quarter of 2025. According to the final GDP data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce, the economy, which grew by 4.4 percent in the third quarter, recorded only 0.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter. Thus, the growth rate was revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points compared to previous estimates.
Signals of weakening
The revision particularly highlighted the weakening in investments. While consumer spending continued to contribute to growth, the decline in government spending and the decrease in exports limited this contribution. Conversely, the decrease in imports was one of the factors that boosted growth due to the calculation method. Looking at the sectoral distribution, the services sector showed a positive divergence; private services grew by 2.3 percent, while the public sector contracted by 7.8 percent, and goods-producing sectors contracted by 1.8 percent. Wholesale trade, information technology, and healthcare were among the items that contributed most to growth.
On the inflation side, a relatively more balanced picture emerges. The Fed's closely watched PCE price index rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, while core PCE increased by 2.7%, in line with expectations. These figures indicate that inflationary pressures remain under control. However, the same optimism is not seen on the income side. Personal income fell 0.1% month-on-month in February, significantly below the market's expectation of a 0.3% increase. A similar decline was observed in disposable income. In contrast, consumer spending remained strong. Personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.5% in February. This shows that consumption trends continue despite the weakening income. The fact that the savings rate remains at 4% reveals that households continue to act cautiously. On the corporate profit side, however, the picture is more positive. Corporate earnings before tax increased by $246.9 billion in the fourth quarter, exceeding the previous quarter. The 2.6% growth in real GDI, considered together with real GDP, also points to resilience on the income side. On an annual basis, the US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% by 2025.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency reaction
While the released data signaled a slowdown in economic growth, the cryptocurrency market's reaction to this picture remained more limited. Bitcoin, after retreating to levels around $70,600 during the day, recovered and rose again to the $71,200 range. On the hourly chart, the $71,000 level is seen to be acting as a strong support. In upward attempts, the $71,500 - $71,600 range stands out as a short-term resistance zone.
Looking at general market data, Bitcoin has recorded a weekly increase of over 7%, and Ethereum has also shown a similarly strong performance. However, a volatile trend is noticeable in short-term price movements. The fact that the cryptocurrency market remains resilient despite signals of weakening macroeconomic data indicates that investors have not completely lost their risk appetite.
