Despite the crypto market's consecutive sell-offs in recent weeks, major analyst firms and industry leaders are more optimistic. Grayscale Research stated in its latest report that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs as early as 2026. BitMine CEO Tom Lee offered a similar assessment, stating that Bitcoin could renew its all-time high by January at the latest.
Is the four-year cycle still going?
Grayscale's report drew attention by challenging the "four-year cycle" debate that frequently arises in the market. Most crypto investors are accustomed to the idea that Bitcoin follows a roughly four-year peak-and-trough cycle after each halving. According to this perspective, a significant correction and a prolonged recession were expected between 2025 and 2026. However, Grayscale argues that this cycle is no longer working.
The company's analysts state that Bitcoin has not experienced a parabolic rally like in past cycles, and therefore, there is no technical pressure for a sharp reversal. The report notes, "Uncertainty remains, but we believe the four-year cycle thesis will not hold true this time. There is a strong possibility that Bitcoin will reach new highs in 2026."
The Bitcoin price has been undergoing a highly volatile period in the last two months. From the beginning of October to the end of November, there was a 32% pullback. On Monday, the price briefly dropped to $84,000, but then recovered to the $86,900 range. According to Grayscale, declines of this magnitude are normal movements common in strong bull markets and do not imply a long-term downtrend.
The most striking part of the report is the analysis explaining why this cycle differs from previous cycles. Grayscale noted that in periods like 2021 or 2017, prices experienced a steep rise due to the influx of retail investors. Today, the picture has changed. Institutional investor pressure is much more pronounced; Bitcoin ETFs, digital asset treasury accounts, and long-term positions of large funds are driving the market. This structure makes price movements more balanced. Macroeconomic conditions also support Grayscale's optimistic stance. The possibility of US interest rate cuts continuing until 2026 and the convergence of the two parties in Washington on crypto regulations reinforce the company's view that "medium-term winds are blowing in BTC's favor."
BitMine CEO Tom Lee further supports this view. In both social media notes and statements on CNBC, he highlighted a significant disconnect between market pricing and on-chain indicators. Lee stated, "The constant decline in prices while increasing wallet numbers, network fees, tokenization volume, and usage data creates an anomaly. Therefore, the risk-return balance for BTC and ETH is very attractive."
Lee believes that Bitcoin could reach a new high by January. This prediction has attracted investor attention, particularly given the subdued outlook in recent weeks. Despite short-term fears, the market's fundamental indicators are strengthening; this is a common point emphasized by both Grayscale and Lee.
