Gemini has obtained a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the US Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC), granting it the right to offer regulated prediction markets in the US. Announced on December 10, 2025, this decision marks the official completion of the five-year licensing process that began in March 2020. This step is critical for Gemini to expand its business model and establish a more robust revenue structure to meet expectations.
Prediction markets meet with customers
The new license allows its subsidiary, Gemini Titan, to offer binary event contracts, also known as binary prediction contracts. These contracts operate on clear, yes-or-no questions such as, "Will Bitcoin close the year above $200,000?" The scope of the authorization is not limited to prediction markets; the company can also expand into a wider range of derivative products such as crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts if it so chooses. This move means Gemini has established a fully compliant structure that will allow it to directly compete with emerging forecasting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket in the US. The sharp increase in interest in forecasting markets, particularly during the US election cycle, strengthens the demand for a regulated and overseen platform. In the last two years, Kalshi and Polymarket have reached record volumes, and the CFTC's previously more cautious approach has softened significantly under Acting Chair Caroline Pham. Pham argues that forecasting markets could become an economically significant sector "as large as mainstream finance," and is taking steps to encourage innovation among industry players. The timing of the license is also noteworthy for Gemini. The company's shares have experienced a significant decline in value since its IPO in September 2025; opening at $37, the share closed at $11.36 on December 10th. Therefore, opening up to regulated derivatives and forecasting markets stands out as a strategic shift aimed at increasing revenue diversification and supporting long-term growth. Tyler Winklevoss's recent inclusion on the CFTC's CEO Innovation Council also signals a strengthening dialogue between Gemini and regulatory bodies.
Market conditions make this strategy even more necessary. Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced wide-ranging fluctuations in the last year, while networks frequently attracting institutional attention, such as Solana, have seen sharp pullbacks. This volatility is accelerating Gemini's desire to expand its product portfolio during a period of drastic changes in investor behavior.
Despite renewed interest, Gemini is not the first US exchange to enter this space. Crypto.com is developing joint prediction platforms with different brands, while test code for a prediction module integrated into Coinbase's wallet is noteworthy. Furthermore, Robinhood becoming a large distribution partner, sometimes accounting for more than half of Kalshi's volume, demonstrates the rapidly increasing competition in the sector.
Gemini's DCM license places the company among the limited number of platforms that can offer regulated prediction and derivatives markets in the US. This license is not unique to Gemini; This is also significant as a symbolic step indicating a shift in the CFTC's approach to digital assets and predictive products towards a more innovation-friendly era.
