While Bitcoin's plunge below $90,000 on November 18th created significant anxiety in the crypto market, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, says this pullback is a cyclical correction and that selling pressure may have largely ended. Bitcoin tested a seven-month low during the days when investors panicked; however, according to Kendrick, the pattern is quite similar to past corrections, suggesting that the bottom may have already been seen.
Kendrick describes the recent decline as "a version of a rapid and painful post-ETF correction." Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in 2024, Bitcoin has experienced three major pullbacks, each resulting in a strong recovery. Standard Chartered believes this third major correction follows the same pattern. As short-term investors accelerated selling, ETF inflows slowed, and the market's liquidity weakened, some indicators dipped into oversold territory. One of these is the decline of MicroStrategy's mNAV ratio back to 1.0. This metric means the company's market capitalization is parity with Bitcoin holdings, and according to Kendrick, such readings near zero generally signal bottoming. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index's decline to 15 is another indicator of extreme panic in the market.
Market signals are improving
Analysts note that despite the deepening pullback, long-term signals are improving. Most ETF investors are nearing breakeven, and on-chain accumulation behavior suggests that high-conviction buyers have begun buying. The quiet accumulation of large investors during days of accelerated retail investor selling is considered by many experts to be the final stage of the correction.
While market volatility continues, Standard Chartered believes there has been no dramatic deterioration in the broader macro picture. Kendrick notes that liquidity conditions and inflation data, in particular, support risk appetite, and that ETF inflows are likely to regain momentum in December. The analyst, who previously announced his year-end target of $200,000, emphasized that "the rally remains the baseline scenario," although he didn't reaffirm it today.
Meanwhile, some analysts point out that the market remains fragile. Nansen's Nicolai Sondergaard says that market depth has decreased by approximately 30 percent since the major liquidation on October 10th, causing prices to react sharply even to small sell-offs. He doesn't completely rule out the possibility of an "extension" to the mid-$80,000s in the options market; however, current levels or a rapid recovery are more likely.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's sub-$90,000 surge has created a cold shower in the market; however, the outlook for major institutions remains unchanged. The view that we are entering a period of diminishing selling pressure, improving on-chain data, and supportive macro conditions is gaining strength. If ETF outflows slow down and the $95,000-$100,000 range is breached again, the year-end rally that Standard Chartered is signaling is still on the table. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $91,280.
