The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June 16-17 meeting today, Wednesday, at 2:00 p.m. ET. For those expecting a rate hike in September, the text may offer less than they hope.
Chair Kevin Warsh did not share his own rate projection during this period. The post-meeting statement was only 130 words long, and forward guidance was removed entirely. That leaves the minutes as the only detailed record available on the debate inside the committee.
A committee split between hawks and doves
The FOMC held rates steady at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. It was the fourth consecutive hold. Nine of the 18 members projected at least one rate hike for 2026, while Warsh did not put forward his own forecast.
The committee held this meeting before the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June jobs report. The report showed only 57,000 new jobs, marking the weakest reading in four months. Any hawkish tone in the minutes may still reflect a labor market that looked strong at the time. The weaker picture emerged only days later.
The CME FedWatch tool currently prices the probability of a September rate hike in the 50% to 55% range. Before the weak employment data, that probability stood at 66%. Warsh addressed the issue directly at his press conference. He said inflation had remained above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years and that this was a burden for the American people, while also adding that the recent past does not have to determine the future.
Silence itself becomes the story
Since taking office, Warsh has pushed for a simpler communication style. In his view, forward guidance makes the Fed more dependent on markets than on the data it is supposed to respond to.
This preference makes Wednesday’s release unusually important, because there is no previous statement text to compare it with. Speaking at the Sintra forum in July, Warsh clarified his stance on inflation: investors should not expect the Fed under his leadership to become comfortable with inflation above 2%.
Bitcoin feels the weight of rate uncertainty
Crypto markets are already reacting to this uncertainty. Bitcoin recently slipped to $61,766, losing close to 1%. Ethereum, XRP and Solana also fell between 1% and 2.3%.
The sell-off is not driven by rate uncertainty alone. WTI crude futures rose more than 2% to $72.27, while the dollar index held above the 101 level. A stronger dollar and rising inflation expectations are pushing investors toward safer assets such as bonds, while drawing them away from riskier instruments like Bitcoin.
If the minutes show how close the hawkish wing came to supporting a rate hike in June, this cautious mood in the crypto market may continue. Signals on the September rate decision will matter not only for bond and currency markets, but also for Bitcoin investors.
A Fed led by a chair who prefers silence may leave both stock and crypto investors waiting for real clarity even after Wednesday.
