The sudden easing of tensions between the US and Iran shook the crypto market. Following the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial traffic, Bitcoin surged to $78,200, its highest level in nearly two and a half months. Although the price retreated slightly from this peak during the day, it managed to hold above the $78,000 mark.
This rise wasn't unique to Bitcoin. Ethereum gained over 5% in the last 24 hours, while XRP and Dogecoin also saw similar gains. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $2.7 trillion; the overall picture indicated that investors were beginning to reclaim risk.
The Strait opened, markets breathed a sigh of relief
The announcement that ignited the movement came from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to all merchant ships via designated routes during the ceasefire period. This step alleviated, at least temporarily, one of the biggest fears for global supply chains. US President Donald Trump also confirmed that the strait was "fully open and ready for trade."
However, in the same speech, he did not fail to add that the naval blockade against Iran would continue. Therefore, the picture is not entirely clear: the ceasefire is only for 10 days, the blockade is still in effect. Markets were excited but did not abandon caution. The general market atmosphere also supported this optimism. While the S&P 500 approached new highs in US stock markets, Brent and WTI oil prices fell sharply. This decline in energy prices was read as an indication that geopolitical risk was being mitigated in the short term.
Highest level since February
For Bitcoin, this movement is considered a sign of a long-term recovery. The price, which was hovering around $90,000 in February, fell to $60,000 within a few weeks, creating serious demoralization in the market. By the end of April, a significant portion of these losses had been recovered. 21Shares strategist Matt Mena predicts that if the current momentum is maintained, Bitcoin could test the $80-85,000 range in the short term. The possibility of reaching the $80,000 level has also begun to be priced in significantly on the prediction platform Polymarket.
But the derivatives markets disagree
Despite all this optimism, data from the derivatives markets paints a more cautious picture. Funding rates and open interest data indicate that investors are not yet fully convinced of the rise. Analysts emphasize that the $78,000 level constitutes a critical resistance zone in the short term, and that strong demand from the spot market is needed for this resistance to be permanently overcome.
In short, the market has relaxed, but hasn't completely gotten rid of its anxieties. The fact that the ceasefire is for 10 days, the blockade continues, and the derivatives data appears hesitant suggests that investors are considering both opportunity and risk simultaneously.
